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The UK should make an international pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 81% below 1990 levels by 2035, according to the government’s advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC).

The recommendation for the UK’s next “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement comes just weeks before the government is expected to announce its new target at the COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan.

It follows a request from secretary of state Ed Miliband for guidance from the CCC, taking into account the levels of ambition set in the 2033-37 period covered by the “sixth carbon budget”.

Miliband also asked for the committee’s views on the impact of including, or not including, international aviation and shipping emissions. This mirrors the approach taken in 2020 for the UK’s previous NDC. 

While the government is not obliged to follow the CCC’s advice, it has almost always done so in the past.

Such a target would be “ambitious, deliverable and consistent” with the UK’s legally binding sixth carbon budget, the CCC notes, providing a “credible contribution” towards limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Existing targets

Under the UK’s Climate Change Act, the government must set a long-term goal for cutting emissions by 2050, as well as five-yearly “carbon budgets” along the way.

The legally binding carbon budgets, detailing allowable levels of economy-wide emissions, are designed to provide “stepping stones” towards the 2050 goal.

When it was passed in 2008, the UK’s target was to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 60% below 1990 levels by 2050, but this was quickly increased to 80%.

The UK’s first five carbon budgets, covering the period from 2008 through to 2032, were set in the context of that 80% by 2050 goal.

However, in 2019, the Conservative prime minister Theresa May raised the UK’s long-term goal to a 100% reduction by 2050, commonly referred to as “net-zero”.

After the UK officially left the European Union in 2020, the increased ambition of the net-zero target provided the context for the UK’s first NDC, which pledges to cut emissions to “at least 68%” below 1990 levels by 2030 – excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping (IAS), in line with UN convention. 

(This is more ambitious than the fifth carbon budget target of a 57% reduction between 2028 and 2032, which was set under the lower 80% by 2050 goal.)

Subsequently, in 2021, the Conservative government “enshrined” the UK’s sixth carbon budget in law, targeting a 78% cut in emissions during 2033-2037. This budget was also set in line with the new net-zero target.

In addition, the sixth carbon budget includes the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping for the first time, “in line with the CCC’s long-held view that all UK carbon budgets should account for emissions from both sources”.

The CCC recommends that the budget should be set at 965m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) for the period 2033 to 2037. This equates to, on average, 193MtCO2e annually. In 2019, annual emissions stood at 522MtCO2e.

It evaluated the potential level of the target under different scopes, including noting that changes to the methods it uses for estimating UK emissions could lead to higher estimates for both historical and future emissions. These “higher inventory changes” were taken into account for the 78% target. 

If international aviation and shipping are excluded, but the higher inventory changes remain, the CCC’s recommended emissions reduction by 2035, on the basis of 1990, is 82%.

According to independent research group Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the UK’s NDC pledge to reduce emissions by 68% below 1990 levels is “almost sufficient”. It notes that, while the UK’s current target is not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, it could be with “moderate improvements”. 

CAT had previously rated the target as compatible with 1.5C in 2022, but it has since updated its modelled pathways “to reflect the latest science”. This resulted in more stringent reductions being needed to get on track.

NDC recommendations

The CCC has recommended that the UK’s next NDC commits to reducing territorial emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035, as shown in the chart below, based on the committee’s forthcoming advice on the seventh carbon budget.

Line chart showing UK historical emissions from 1990 to 2024 and NDC goal of 68% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030.
UK emissions (MtCO2e), showing historical emissions, carbon budgets, the 2030 NDC target and the CCC’s 2035 NDC recommendation target. Carbon budgets 1-5 do not include international aviation and shipping, however, historical emissions and carbon budget 6 include these emissions. As such, NDC figures are plotted on the chart with international aviation and shipping included to allow for comparison. Source: Climate Change Committee.

Such a reduction would be consistent with the UK’s existing net-zero-aligned targets: the 2030 NDC; the sixth carbon budget; and net-zero by 2050.

Meeting the 2035 recommendation and the adopted 2030 NDC will require “rapid, but achievable action with low-carbon technologies becoming mainstream”, the CCC states. It points to the 10 recommendations made in its progress report, released earlier this year. 

These include making electricity cheaper, reversing policy rollbacks seen under the previous Conservative government and removing planning barriers for technologies, such as heat pumps, EV chargers and onshore wind.  

In a statement accompanying the CCC’s letter, Prof Piers Forster, interim chair of the committee, said:

“The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today. Investment in low-carbon technologies – electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewables – needs to come now for this target to be achievable. Businesses will start to invest when they have confidence in what the government’s long-term policy plans are. We need to see the government’s commitment to climate reflected in the upcoming budget.”

The CCC has provided its NDC recommendation excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping, “in line with UNFCCC convention”, it notes.

If they were included, the committee’s recommendation would sit at 77-78% – almost the same as the level set in the sixth carbon budget.

Most NDCs historically have not included international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Paris Agreement, which excluded emissions from these sectors due to the difficulty in attributing emissions to individual countries. 

Instead, emissions from these sections are addressed under the International Civil Aviation Organisation and the International Maritime Organisation

While international aviation and shipping have, therefore, not been included within the CCC’s recommendation for the UK’s 2035 NDC, it notes that the UK is “well-positioned to drive international aviation and shipping decarbonisation”.

Stronger action is “urgently needed” to address international aviation and shipping emissions, the CCC says, which are expected to be the third largest source of emissions in the UK by 2035 and the second by 2050 (after agriculture).

The CCC notes that there have been some accounting changes since the release of the sixth carbon budget. As such, the UK emissions inventory has been revised to lower some estimates for the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

This means that the amount of emissions reduction required to meet the sixth carbon budget is now “slightly smaller” – falling from 78% to 77% as noted above.

This has led to some small differences between the percentage reduction required to meet the legislated sixth carbon budget target and those recommended by the CCC in its advice in 2020, as shown in the table below.

2035 UK emissions reduction
excluding IAS (NDC basis)
2035 UK emissions reduction
including IAS
CCC NDC recommendation
(based on forthcoming CB7
pathway)
81% 77-78%
CCC CB6 advice 82% 77-78%
CB6 legislated basis (comparing annualised legislated CB6 number with latest inventory estimate of 1990 emissions) 80% 77%

Source: CCC analysis.

As such, the CCC’s NDC recommendation for 2035 is 81%, while the sixth carbon budget advice was 82%. The actual amount of emissions reduction does not change, remaining at 965MtCO2e for the period 2033 to 2037.

The delivery plan for the NDC should be aligned with the UK’s international and domestic goals on nature, the CCC adds. It should also be fully integrated with the forthcoming National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.

Additional advice for the UK’s wider contribution to tackling climate change includes strengthening the UK’s national adaptation programme, supporting climate finance and “championing international transparency” by submitting a best practice NDC technical annex. 

The UK should “strengthen and contribute to key international initiatives”, such as the global methane pledge. However, the CCC notes that international credits should not be used to achieve any NDC. 

What happens next?

All parties within the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate their NDCs at least 9-12 months ahead of the relevant COPs. For the upcoming 2035 NDC, this means parties must submit their targets between November 2024 and February 2025.

Speaking at the UN general assembly in September, prime minister Keir Starmer said the UK would: 

“Meet our net-zero target, backed up with an ambitious NDC at COP29, consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, and we’ll support others to do the same.”

As such, Carbon Brief understands that it is likely Starmer will unveil the UK’s NDC on the first day of COP29 during the leaders summit.

Prof Forster, adds:

“More than any commitment, what we really need is action. I have no doubt that the UK can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.”

Other nations are also likely to publish their NDCs in the coming months, including the US, COP28 host the UAE, COP29 host Azerbaijan and upcoming COP30 host Brazil.

These NDCs will “form the foundation of international climate action”, according to the World Resources Institute. They will be presented and adopted at COP30 in late 2025.

Underlying its NDC advice is the CCC’s work on the seventh carbon budget, its recommendations for which will be published on 26 February 2025. This will cover the period from 2038 to 2042.

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New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

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        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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        SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.

        The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.

        An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.

        Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.

        Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.

        “The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

        “The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”

        Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.

        “The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.

        “The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”

        After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.

        Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.

        “Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”

        -ENDS-

        Media contact

        Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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