在巴库举行的COP29会议上，Carbon Brief采访了清华大学环境规划与管理系主任王灿教授，讨论了其领导的研究团队发布的《2024全球碳中和年度进展报告》。
该报告由清华大学大学碳中和研究院和环境学院联合发布，评估了不同国家在减缓气候变化的“目标、技术、资金和国际合作”方面的进展，指出了“碳中和目标与减排成果之间的实施差距”。
在这次内容广泛的采访中，王灿教授介绍了该研究所的研究结果并指出了世界实现净零排放的主要障碍。他还分享了对欧盟碳边境调整机制（CBAM）、中国即将提交的2035气候承诺（NDC）、碳市场、“碳双控” 政策、“十四五” 规划、碳达峰时间表、电气化、储能和氢能等的思考。
以下是采访的全文记录，记录已编辑以保证篇幅和清晰度：
- 关于碳中和执行进展：“我们从执行的角度来跟踪（各国碳中和的进展），更注重实际行动和用科学的方法去评估。”
- 关于发展中国家对气候行动的承诺：“发展中国家应对气候变化的决心和紧迫感非常强烈。因为他们更容易受到气候变化的影响，因此他们更加积极。”
- 关于中国2035年国家自主贡献：“我觉得下一轮NDC还是会跟我们的 “双碳” 政策保持一致的，主要更新是把我们的目标跟公约的时间表对标，比如把目标延长到2035年。”
- 关于全球可再生能源：“（全球可再生能源）已经增长得非常快了，但如果我们要实现2030年（可再生能源发电量实现三倍增长的目标），它必须增长得更快。”
- 关于可再生能源三倍增长的障碍：“我们认为（可再生能源）技术已经发展到可以更快部署的阶段……这本是可以实现的，但未能实现的一个重要因素是最近的贸易壁垒问题……我们发现包括美国在内的国家都有这样的政策。”
- 关于欧盟的碳边境调整机制（CBAM）：“我们认为欧盟的CBAM对欧盟来说是积极的，因为它增加了其碳排放法规，它被认为改善了欧盟的内部政策。但是，它对国际合作来说是负面的，因为它是一项单边政策。”
- 关于实现净零排放的不同途径：“有一些国家已经实现了脱钩，看到经济增长不需要增加碳排放后，就宣布了碳达峰和碳中和。中国还没有实现，所以我觉得这也是一个显著特点，对发展中国家来说很有代表性。”
- 关于中国的碳市场：“我认为这方面的进展会更快……先确定一个（减排）总量，再通过碳市场，可以低成本地实现总量目标。”
- 关于无法实现能源强度目标：“各个目标最终都是为中国更广泛的气候行动服务的，所以我们并不执着于这个（能源强度）目标是否实现。 ”
- 关于更早实现碳达峰：“我个人不排除在某个时点，比如2024年、2025年，出现反弹或者增加。总体来看，从近几年的发展趋势……我们处在一个接近峰值的阶段，或者说是一个平台期。我觉得我比较认同这个判断。”
- 关于中国的电气化：“在我的文章中，电气化与可再生能源不是竞争关系，而是互补，相互支持……在构建这种新能源、可再生能源为主导的电力系统的过程中，终端电气化是非常有帮助的。”
- 关于需要储能系统：“储能是新能源系统建设中不可或缺的组成部分，而新能源的主要组成部分是可再生能源。”
- 关于氢气：“现在有很多问题，比如成本高，储存和运输困难，从长远来看，这些问题都需要解决。我们必须努力去解决，因为没有它，未来的体系和碳中和的道路可能会失败。所以它是一项关键的、不可或缺的技术。”
Carbon Brief：您研究中最重要的发现是什么？
王灿：我们从执行的角度来跟踪（各国碳中和的进展），更注重实际行动和用科学的方法去评估。碳排放目标是定在未来几十年之后的，如果单纯看目标，很难评估我们现在的行动是否充分，所以需要科学、系统的方法来评估。我们认为实际行动很重要，评估行动的方法也很重要。
Carbon Brief：您的报告发现发展中国家的“雄心指数”较高，而发达国家的“雄心指数”较低。这里的“雄心指数”是什么意思？
王灿：当我们谈论“雄心指数”或用指数来表达我之前所说的内容时，我们遵循的理念是看行动而不是看宣言。因此，我们会修改各国的雄心指数。例如，一个国家可能宣称它希望尽快实现碳中和，但却采取设置各种障碍，来阻碍技术流动和阻碍全球合作的行动。[这种情况下，]它的目标可能非常雄心勃勃，但它的行动却有负面影响。我们的指数会考虑到这些因素，并在考虑这些因素后给出分数。截至去年，一些发展中国家的得分较高，而一些发达国家的雄心指数相对较低。
Carbon Brief：所以您的意思是，您会检查各国在其国家自主贡献中宣布的目标，并为他们的气候行动打出正分或负分，然后计算出他们的“雄心指数”的分数？
王灿：是的。
Carbon Brief：您对结果感到惊讶吗？
王灿：我并不感到意外，因为我参与联合国气候公约谈判已有十多年。从谈判过程中，我们可以感受到发展中国家应对气候变化的决心和紧迫感非常强烈。因为他们更容易受到气候变化的影响，因此他们更加积极。发达国家虽然有能力和技术，他们的科学家在这方面有更系统、更科学的知识，但他们不像中国这样的发展中国家那样坚持不懈。中国一旦宣布气候目标，就会系统地、持续地推进。而发达国家出于经济和国际贸易竞争的考虑，并没有这样做。
Carbon Brief：西方对中国2035年国家自主贡献（NDC）尤其感兴趣。您认为中国会提出什么新的气候目标，或者下一轮国家自主贡献应该写些什么？
王灿：我觉得下一轮NDC还是会跟我们的 “双碳” 政策保持一致的，主要更新是把我们的目标跟公约的时间表对标，比如把目标延长到2035年。我们已经有2030年要实现的目标了，下一轮NDC又会开启新一轮的2035年要实现的目标。不同阶段有不同的任务，但都是在一个总体框架下。中国已经公布了 “双碳” 目标，设定了两个时间点，建立了 “1+N” 的政策体系，我觉得无非就是在这样一个体系下把2030年到2035年的任务都具体化，这是我个人的理解和期待。
Carbon Brief：您的报告称，目前全球可再生能源发展速度不足以实现COP28提出的“2030年实现三倍增长”的目标，距离实现气候目标所需的部署规模存在“巨大差距”。阻碍更快增长的主要因素是什么？
王灿：我不确定你的问题和我们在报告中想要表达的观点是否完全一致。我对我们在报告中所说的内容的理解是，虽然我们看到可再生能源发展迅速，而且近年来形势十分乐观，但与2030年全球可再生能源发电量增加三倍的要求和2050年全球净零排放目标相比，仍然存在差距。
（全球可再生能源）已经增长得非常快了，但如果我们要实现2030年（可再生能源发电量实现三倍增长的目标），它必须增长得更快，特别是从全球角度来看。现在有一些国家，比如中国和东南亚的印度尼西亚，在过去一两年里部署（可再生能源）非常快，但在全球范围内，我们还没有看到所预期的速度。这是我们想要传达的核心信息，或者说是我们特别想传达的信息。
背后的原因是，我们认为（可再生能源）技术已经发展到可以更快部署的阶段，从我们的研究来看，部署得更快、更广泛之后，这项技术的进步速度就会加快，进入良性循环。这本是可以实现的，但未能实现的一个重要因素是最近的贸易壁垒问题，贸易壁垒已经从原来的高科技和通讯产品扩展到应对气候变化的可再生能源。
这种贸易壁垒是典型的基于传统、非常狭隘的经济利益的做法。它忽视了一个原本来自西方国际贸易理论的事实，即自由的国际贸易可以促进经济发展、技术进步，从而带来新一轮的共赢。忽略这一事实是短视的行为。在可再生能源领域，中长期的经济利益和对气候变化的坚定承诺都被放弃了。所以，我们认为这是可再生能源发展面临的一个需要解决的问题。
Carbon Brief：您能举一个您所提到的贸易壁垒的例子吗？
王灿：例如提高关税——对进口可再生能源设备征收（高额）关税，以及故意征收此类关税。这是我们在（报告中）国家分析里引用的例子。我们发现包括美国在内的国家都有这样的政策。我们的报告设定了一个框架，在这个框架中，我们检查是否有贸易壁垒政策，以及（这些政策）是否得到执行；然后，如果是，我们会查看它们是否针对减少排放所需的绿色和低碳技术；如果是，我们就会给出不同的权重和负分。
Carbon Brief：目前带来影响最严重的贸易壁垒是什么？
王灿：对风能和太阳能进行进口管制，增加关税，或者此类商业管制清单。
Carbon Brief：主要在美国？
王灿：主要在美国。
Carbon Brief：您如何看待欧盟的碳边境调整机制（CBAM）？
王灿：在我们的评估中，我们认为欧盟的CBAM对欧盟来说是积极的，因为它增加了其碳排放法规，它被认为改善了欧盟的内部政策。但是，它对国际合作来说是负面的，因为它是一项单边政策，其影响可能会阻碍前面提到的技术流动、技术的快速传播以及先进技术在全球的快速部署。
当然，我们还要看得更远、更详细，因为未来几年CBAM涵盖的行业范围会发生变化。目前从国际合作的角度来看，它的负面权重并不高。从执行的角度来看，虽然它主要涵盖电力和氢能（以及其他行业），但目前它的范围并不是很大。
Carbon Brief：您的报告说，没有一条 “单一的零碳路径” 可以适用于所有国家，相反，“不同类型的国家需要采取不同的措施” 。中国实现碳中和的最佳路径是什么？与其他国家有何不同？
王灿：是的，我们想说的是，没有一种模式适合所有国家实现净零排放。不同的国家处于不同的发展阶段，经济结构不同，资源条件不同，甚至政治制度和文化特征也不同，所以实现净零排放的路径肯定会有所不同。各国在政策、目标、技术、资金、国际合作方式等方面确实存在差异——我们刚才谈到了——（所以）我们认为不同的国家应该有不同的模式。
对于中国来说，“双碳”是一个中国特色的政策目标，我们要在2030年前达到碳峰值，在2060年前实现碳中和。2030年前碳达峰，意味着我们还需要时间把经济发展和碳排放脱钩。达不到峰值，就说明我们还没有把这些事情脱钩，经济增长（仍会）导致碳排放的增加。为什么呢？因为我们还是一个发展中国家，而且是世界上最大的发展中国家——世界上工业最多的发展中国家。我们的制造业比较大，人口比较多，我们还处于城镇化、工业化的过程中，碳排放和经济发展还没有完全脱钩。即使在这样的情况下，我们也提出了实现碳中和的目标，更加体现了我们的雄心和决心。
有一些国家已经实现了脱钩，看到经济增长不需要增加碳排放后，就宣布了碳达峰和碳中和。中国还没有实现，所以我觉得这也是一个显著特点，对发展中国家来说很有代表性。很多发展中国家跟我们类似，没有实现脱钩，但要明确应对气候变化的措施，实现（碳达峰和碳中和）两个目标。为了到本世纪中叶实现全球净零排放，发展中国家已经提出了一些目标和路径。
那么路径是什么呢？（就是）达到峰值之后再实现中和。首先有一个快速达到峰值的阶段，峰值要尽可能低。这个阶段需要技术支持、资金支持，以及一些能力建设。比如中国正在建设的碳市场，目前还处于能力建设的阶段——收集碳排放数据、（提升）市场的专业交易能力等等。这个阶段对中国来说非常重要。如果这个阶段基础打得不牢，那么达到峰值之后，碳减排、实现碳中和的阶段可能还需要比较长的时间，我们实现碳中和的难度就会加大。
Carbon Brief：说到中国的碳市场，在我们之前的《Carbon Brief》报告中，一些分析师表示，中国的碳市场还没有完全活跃起来，交易可能还没有发挥出最大的潜力。我们如何才能最大限度地发挥碳市场的潜力？
王灿：我认为这方面的进展会更快。因为今年国务院出台了从“能源消费双控”向“碳排放双控”转变的工作方案，明确了时间表。从现在到2030年，以控制碳强度为主，总量控制为辅。但同时也要探索一些总量控制机制。2030年中国碳排放达到峰值后，将以总量控制为主要机制，以控制碳强度为辅。
只要有总量控制目标，碳交易和碳市场体系就能发挥减排作用。因为碳交易这样的政策工具，本质上就是要以低成本实现一定的总量目标。总量控制目标只是给出一个数量，但这个目标是否能有效分配给排放单位，政府并没有足够的信息去判断。通过碳交易和碳市场，可以以最低的成本实现减排。所以直接回答这个问题的话，（就是）先确定一个（减排）总量，再通过碳市场，可以低成本地实现总量目标。
Carbon Brief：您提到从“能源双控”转向“碳排放双控”。有观点认为，由于今年GDP增速低于排放增速，中国可能无法实现排放强度总量目标。您认为这会产生很大影响吗？
王灿：您指的是什么影响？
Carbon Brief：“十四五” 规划。“十四五” 规划制定了总体能源强度降低目标，但由于经济增长速度低于能源消耗速度，这一目标可能无法实现。
王灿：是的，能源强度目标。
Carbon Brief：您认为这会减缓整个减排进程吗（十四五规划）？
王灿：我认为这个（能源强度）目标是为了实现更广泛的减排目标，因此能否实现可能是最初设定目标时考虑的一个因素。例如，当目标设定在2020年左右时，它没有考虑到近年来的经济形式和技术变化。事实上，与这个目标相对应的还有一个目标，那就是可再生能源总量（到2030年，风能和太阳能发电量达到1200GW）……[这个目标]实现得非常快。所以我们设定的目标中，一些容易实现，也有一些可能比预期更难实现。我想我应该回到我之前的观点，即各个目标最终都是为中国更广泛的气候行动服务的，所以我们并不执着于这个（能源强度）目标是否实现。
从近年来中国推动“双碳”工作来看，中国在（气候）政策建设、降低可再生能源技术开发成本、加快应用速度等方面取得了很大进展。从中央到省级再到市级政府，都在自上而下地围绕公众意识提升、数据收集等推动生态工作的能力建设和推进，比如基线数据的构建，包括探索将碳（排放影响）评价纳入环境影响评价。这些也是我们在《全球碳中和进展报告》中表达的观点。从这个角度看，我们认为习近平总书记提出“双碳”目标以来，中国近三年来的工作是走在正确的轨道上的，有助于我们在2030年前实现碳达峰、在2060年前实现碳中和。
我们正在做扎实的基础工作。这不是口号或“运动式”的工作，（“运动式”的工作）可能带来（短期的）减排，然后反弹。如果我们想可持续地减排，就需要经济和社会的系统性变革。这种系统性变革必须从刚才提到的角度出发，我们必须做一些基础工作。一些工作（带来的变化）在短期内可能不会很快见效，因为（排放）仍然处于攀升阶段，总量还没有完全减少。但这是我们在短期内为长期做准备，而短期是我们无法避免的一个阶段。
Carbon Brief：我们之前发表过一篇分析文章，根据数据，中国可能在2023年就达到碳排放峰值。您如何看待这个研究结果？
王灿：我认为预测峰值不是一种科学方法。到目前为止，我还没有看到任何指标或研究能够预测一个国家已经达到峰值。这是必须用时间来判断的事情，而且可能需要几年时间（峰值出现后），因为排放量可能会反弹。当然，分析和研究需要考虑很多因素，比如人口增长、经济增长、产业结构、能源需求及其背后的能源技术。
有很多指标可以帮助我们做这样的分析。从现有的指标分析来看，我觉得2023年达到峰值没有错，肯定是可信的。但我个人不排除在某个时点，比如2024年、2025年，出现反弹或者增加。总体来看，从近几年的发展趋势，包括我们做的系统性准备，中央对“双碳”目标的决心，我们处在一个接近峰值的阶段，或者说是一个平台期。我觉得我比较认同这个判断。
[本次采访后发布的Carbon Brief分析显示，中国的二氧化碳排放量在 2024 年最后 10 个月停止上升，但总体上仍略有增长。]
Carbon Brief：您之前的研究指出，电气化是减少排放的一种方法，具有经济效益。国际能源署(IEA)最近也强调了中国在这方面的快速进步。您能谈谈中国的战略、电气化的现状以及中国可以采取哪些措施来推进电气化吗？
王灿：在我的文章中，电气化与可再生能源不是竞争关系，而是互补，相互支持。可再生能源取代化石能源，构建新的电力系统，这是我们（为实现）净零排放所希望达成的目标。在构建这种新能源、可再生能源为主导的电力系统的过程中，终端电气化是非常有帮助的。为什么呢？因为终端电气化对节能有（积极）影响，也可以调节可再生能源的不稳定供应。同时，电气化可以更好地吸纳一些储能设施，加速储能的技术进步。另外，电气化减少了对化石能源的依赖。它与可再生能源并不是非此即彼的零和博弈。可再生能源发展得越多，我们就越有信心将其用于终端消费。
Carbon Brief：您能再解释一下吗？电气化如何 “吸纳储能”？
王灿：电气化是指在终端用户（如锅炉）直接消耗能源。所以当我们谈论电气化时，我们需要看看电气化的对象是什么。电气化是指（使用电锅炉）取代燃煤和天然气锅炉用于工业供热，或使用电动汽车（EV）取代汽油车，或使用电磁炉取代天然气用于烹饪。所有这些都直接减少了化石能源的消耗。
如果所有传统的化石能源都被电力取代，我们对储能的需求就不会增长。电动汽车是锂电池在汽车领域的应用。工业用的热泵也可以配备储能。这在终端使用方面开辟了新的储能需求。储能是新能源系统建设中不可或缺的组成部分，而新能源的主要组成部分是可再生能源。正如我们上面提到的，储能是这个系统中的一个环节。
Carbon Brief：南方普遍使用电热泵，北方则以燃煤集中供暖为主，有什么办法，比如政策支持等，可以帮助北方快速转向热泵？
王灿：这个问题我也不是特别清楚，但我认为还是集中在技术难点上。因为北方的供热需求比南方更根本、更迫切。比如说，在北方，低温时的供暖是民生问题。南方热泵的需求可能通过低温锅炉生产来满足，（低温锅炉）在今天、今晚、明天都可以生产，有一定的生产灵活性。所以为南方供应热泵没有那么迫切。北方（使用煤炭进行集中供暖）可以更安全。所以热泵的安全性、技术、适用性可能有所不同。我觉得不只是政策问题，还需要技术进一步发展。
Carbon Brief：您对氢有什么看法？
王灿：我认为，就像电气化一样，它可能是未来构建碳中和技术体系的一个非常重要的技术领域。可再生能源的特点之一是，一旦供应量增加，它就会具有间歇性，因此需要储能。储能意味着它可以在没有需求时储存能源，并在供应不能满足需求时提供一些能源。（氢）既是一种更好的储能方式，也是一种开发化学储备的方式，因为它的生产方法——电解，可以利用来自太阳能和风的多余的可再生能源。
这种储能方式不同于传统的制氢方式，（传统上）氢气是化工行业的副产品，甚至是石油和化石燃料直接转化而来的。（氢能源）是一种当前的能源转化趋势和形式，而不是储能的一种形式。但在碳中和技术体系中，氢气（被认为）是一种储能形式。
可再生能源发电系统（与化石能源系统）最核心的区别是，它的边际成本非常低，几乎是零边际运行成本。所以风电、太阳能用上之后，扣除基础设施和固定资产投资的成本，风电、太阳能发电的成本几乎是零。零边际运行成本可以用来电解，你可以理解为用零成本来制氢，到时候氢气的成本就非常低了。
Carbon Brief：但是我听说目前氢气生产的成本相当高？
王灿：是的，那是因为还没有取得足够的进展。当我们仍在使用水电解来制造氢气时，风能和太阳能的成本分摊在电解水所用的电力上。它没有使用剩余的（可再生）电力进行电解，因为没有那么多的剩余电力。当我们电力系统中的风能和太阳能比例达到一定水平时，就会有更多的剩余电力。为了储存多余的电力，我们目前使用锂电池和其他（技术）来储存这些电力，而不是使用电解来制造氢气。所以我认为氢是一种新的储能形式。
同时，氢能对于终端用户来说也是一种清洁的新能源形式，它可以替代天然气、汽油，它转化成氨之后，还可以替代重型卡车甚至邮轮使用的石油，它是可以预见的清洁能源形式，也是终端能源。所以我觉得它非常关键。现在有很多问题，比如成本高，储存和运输困难，从长远来看，这些问题都需要解决。我们必须努力去解决，因为没有它，未来的体系和碳中和的道路可能会失败。所以它是一项关键的、不可或缺的技术。
此次采访由Wanyuan Song于2024年11月16日在巴库举行的COP29会议上进行。
The post Carbon Brief 采访清华大学王灿教授 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The global roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels now being developed should be a “continuing conversation” which is part of UN climate talks, not just a one-off report, several governments told the Brazilian COP30 Presidency on Friday in Bonn.
During a 90-minute exchange of views at the annual mid-year climate talks in Germany, several European governments and the Marshall Islands said the roadmap that Brazil is due to finish by November should be incorporated into the official negotiations.
Any such push is likely to be resisted by nations whose economies are reliant on fossil fuel production. While Russia did not speak on Friday, it has said in earlier written submissions that the roadmap should not be referenced in any document approved by governments at UN climate talks.
At COP30 last year, Brazil tried to get governments to agree to produce a roadmap on how to transition away from fossil fuels but the proposal did not win consensus, with major nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia opposed.
Feedback in Bonn
To save the day, Brazil’s COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago promised at the closing plenary in Belem to draw up a voluntary roadmap in consultation with interested governments. Over 20 countries have officially submitted their opinions on this roadmap and, in Bonn on Friday, Corrêa do Lago sought their views – and those of civil society – in person after the presidency presented its findings so far.
The roadmap will also incorporate outcomes from the first global conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels held in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April and attended by around 60 countries.
A negotiator for the Marshall Islands told Friday’s meeting that at COP31 this year all governments should “welcome the collaborative effort behind the roadmap and the Santa Marta conference and for this work to be taken on to COP32 and beyond”.
-
Fewer journalists register for Bonn talks, as cuts to climate reporting bite
UN data shows a smaller number have signed up to cover the mid-year climate negotiations in Germany than in any year since the COVID-19 pandemic -
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
Co-hosts Türkiye and Australia want countries to sign on to global targets in three of their priority areas for this year’s COP climate negotiations
A spokesperson for Switzerland said on behalf of a group of nations which includes South Korea and Mexico that the roadmap must be a “sustained process, not a one-off report” and “we would welcome an ongoing platform for dialogue, for learning and cooperation including among fossil-fuel production countries”.
“We expect more than a document, rather a process whereby we come together to develop concrete steps, recommendations and tools to prepare for the transitions,” she said, calling on the COP31 co-presidents Australia and Turkiye and COP32 host Ethiopia to “take up the leadership” for implementing the roadmap”.
Global stocktake response
France’s negotiator said the roadmap “is a process and we will need continuing discussions” as “implementation needs time”, while the UK called for a “continuing conversation, including as we head towards the second [global stocktake]”.
The global stocktake (GST) is an official five-yearly report into how the world’s governments are doing on their Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
The second stocktake will be published in 2028 and governments are likely to negotiate a response to it, which could include new commitments to reduce emissions, at COP33 that year. The response to the first global stocktake included the landmark COP28 commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
“Even though it’s not a formal part of the negotiation agenda, the roadmap can be a key input for the entire information-gathering phase of the second GST,” Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, an independent climate policy consultant, explained to Climate Home News.
“The key is for countries not to focus the discussion on defending the roadmap itself, but rather on its content, which is what truly matters,” he added.
At the Bonn event, civil society organisations also supported continuing the roadmap inside the formal climate process.
Natalie Jones, policy adviser for the International Institute for Sustainable Development, told Climate Home News the roadmap should be “an ongoing dialogue where countries can exchange their experiences, best practices and continue implementing the [transitioning away from fossil fuels] consensus”.
Russian resistance
But economies reliant on fossil fuel production are likely to oppose incorporating the roadmap into negotiations in Bonn and at COP summits. Russia’s written submission to Brazil’s consultation says the roadmap was not agreed by governments at COP30.
It says such work should therefore take place on the margins of the UNFCCC process, adding that “ the inclusion of any references to the “Roadmap” in the agenda or in official or informal documents” at Bonn or COP “would constitute a deviation from previously agreed consensus outcomes”.
Other major oil and gas producers like Saudi Arabia have not made written or spoken submissions and the US, as it has left the Paris Agreement, is not involved in discussions. But countries other than Russia are likely to resist incorporating the roadmap into official talks.
The submission by Japan, which is not a major producer of fossil fuels but consumes them from overseas, suggests nervousness about the roadmap. It asks Brazil for clarity on how the roadmap is “envisaged to be utilised” and argues that as many countries continue to rely on fossil fuels for electricity, a full and fast shift to “full decarbonisation” is “challenging.
After Friday’s event, Corrêa do Lago told Climate Home News that “the suggestions and the key milestones of the roadmap are not clear yet”. He added that the next step for the COP30 presidency will be to “sit down in July and August to really prepare” the content.
The veteran Brazilian diplomat added that the roadmap will have a section on the challenges of the transition and another section on solutions.
National fossil fuel roadmaps
Brazil, as COP30 president, is drawing up the global roadmap but its leader Lula da Silva has also ordered his officials to draw up a national roadmap.
In April, France became the first and so far only nation to produce a roadmap, which amalgamated different existing energy and decarbonisation plans and targets. Colombia is reportedly drawing up a roadmap too, based on a draft document by academics.
On Friday, a coalition of nearly 100 civil society organisations called on the COP31 co-presidents Australia and Türkiye to both come up with national roadmaps in order to “lead by example”. Türkiye produces about a third of its electricity from coal, while Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter, the NGOs said.
But in the Brazil-led consultation meeting, a Norwegian negotiator downplayed the importance of separate national roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
While they can “have a supporting role”, the official said countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) “must remain the primary vehicle for driving global climate transition.”
NDCs are climate plans, usually containing emissions reduction targets, which the Paris Agreement states governments must update with higher ambition every five years.
The post European, island states seek clear future for global roadmap to cut fossil fuels appeared first on Climate Home News.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/06/12/european-island-states-seek-clear-future-for-global-roadmap-to-cut-fossil-fuels/
Big cuts in generating capacity are coming as the Colorado River struggles to meet demand.
Some day in the next 12 months—maybe in late August, maybe not until next spring— Lake Mead will drop below the critical threshold of 1,035 feet above sea level.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño begins | COP31 hosts eye electrification | Atlantic current monitoring at risk
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
El Niño begins
‘DOMINO WEATHER’: The natural weather phenomenon El Niño, which can raise global heat and “bring domino weather effects across the planet”, is now underway, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on Thursday, reported the Washington Post. The Japanese Meteorological Administration also identified the start of El Niño on Wednesday, said Bloomberg. According to the Japanese weather agency, the event is “expected to intensify in the coming months and become very strong later in the year, persisting into at least December”, reported the outlet.
‘SUPER EVENT’: BBC News reported that “many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called ‘super’ El Niño” and be “among the strongest ever recorded”. It added: “Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year – most likely in 2027 – with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.”
COP31 hosts eye electrification
‘35 BY 35’: COP31 hosts Turkey and Australia have called for countries to support a target of electrifying 35% of global energy use by 2035, reported Politico. Speaking at climate talks in Bonn, Germany, Turkish minister Murat Kurum said that electrification would be a “flagship priority” at the COP31 summit, noted the publication. Kurum added that “electrifying daily life, from transport to buildings and industry” could “protect families and businesses from volatile energy markets”, said the outlet.
WASTE AND BUILDINGS: Climate Home News reported that electrification was one of three priorities unveiled by the COP31 hosts, with the other two being waste and buildings. On buildings, the COP31 hosts “quietly overhauled [their] goal”, Climate Home News said. It reported: “An initial press statement on Monday set out a target ‘to achieve at least a 25% increase in energy efficiency in buildings by 2035’. But…on Tuesday, that was replaced with a different goal to ‘reduce energy consumption intensity in the building sector by at least 25% by 2035’.”
‘HARDEST’ CHALLENGE: Elsewhere in Bonn, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said “governments must stop revisiting climate commitments and start delivering on them”, South Africa’s Mail and Guardian reported. It quoted Stiell as saying: “Tackling the global climate crisis is the hardest but most important thing humanity has ever tried to do together…We are not yet where we need to be. But we are somewhere we have never been before.”
Around the world
- ETS EXTRA: The EU has agreed “stronger” price controls on “ETS2”, its planned trading system for heating and transport emissions, according to Reuters.
- OCEAN STRESS: The rate of sea level rise has doubled in 10 years amid “severe and accelerating” pressures on oceans, said a UN report covered by Time.
- CLIMATE MIGRANTS: Donald Trump’s “immigration crackdown is largely targeting people from the countries most vulnerable to displacement from climate-driven disasters”, according to Guardian analysis.
- ULTRA-RICH: Investments by the world’s ultra-rich in 2022 are linked to nearly $1tn in climate damages, according to a Greenpeace Africa analysis covered by BusinessGreen.
Two
The number of bidders for Trump’s auction for drilling rights in an Arctic wildlife refuge, with big oil companies “sitting out the sale”, reported Bloomberg.
Latest climate research
- As the Arctic warms, increased iceberg activity could “reshape” deep-sea habitats and “elevate” navigational hazards as maritime traffic expands | Nature
- Around 11% of the population of the world’s “rarest great ape”, the Tapanuli orangutan, is estimated to have perished in an extreme rainfall event in Indonesia in 2025 | Current Biology
- Canada’s forests are shifting from a carbon sink to a carbon source, due to “wildfires disturbances” | Global Change Biology
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Solar power has overtaken gas in Asia to become the region’s third largest electricity source behind coal and hydropower, according to Carbon Brief analysis of data from the thinktank Ember. Solar became the third largest electricity source for Asia on an annual basis in April 2026, according to the analysis. In the year to April 2026, solar generated 1,727 terawatt hours (TWh), while gas generated 1,711TWh, it added.
Spotlight
Atlantic current monitoring at risk
This week, Carbon Brief reports on how Trump plans could disrupt efforts to track a major ocean current.
The Irminger Sea, a patch of frigid ocean east of Greenland, plays an outsized role in the Earth’s climate.
Here, surface water that has travelled thousands of kilometres from the tropics grows cold and dense enough to sink to the ocean’s depths – a transformation that must occur for the water to begin a long journey back to the southern hemisphere.
This makes the Irminger Sea an “action centre” for the mighty Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the vast system of ocean currents that keeps temperatures in Europe mild.
Last week, the US government announced plans to dismantle ocean moorings installed in the Irminger Sea which, among other things, collect data on the health of the AMOC.
This came as part of a programme to “descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a $368m network of ocean sensors installed in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
Two of the moorings earmarked for removal in the Irminger Sea form part of an internationally funded, trans-Atlantic AMOC monitoring array, known as OSNAP, that stretches from Canada to Scotland.
Experts told Carbon Brief the move by the Trump administration highlights the vulnerability of AMOC observation systems around the world. These deep-sea moorings – scattered across the Atlantic – collect real-time data on, among other things, ocean current, temperature, pressure and biochemistry.
Prof Penny Holliday, chief scientific officer of the UK National Oceanography Centre, told Carbon Brief that the OSNAP array, as well as the RAPID array at 26N, are “entirely dependent” on research grants that have to be “continually reapplied for”.
“Funding is perilous all the time,” she said.
A report prepared last month by scientists for Nordic ministers exploring the security of funding for AMOC observing systems warned that RAPID and OSNAP were in “critical condition” and faced “material exposure over an 18-month horizon”. Meanwhile, other key basin-wide and global components of the global AMOC observing system were rated as “at risk”.
It is not just US funding that is uncertain. The report notes, for example, that the five-yearly funding the UK provides to RAPID and OSNAP is “at risk from 2027 due to year-on-year budget reductions” at the Natural Environmental Research Council.
(RAPID is funded by the US and UK, whereas OSNAP is backed by five different countries, with the US contributing half of the total financial support.)
Report co-author Dr Femke de Jong from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research told Carbon Brief that “continued AMOC observations” are under pressure in “multiple countries”. She said:
“While the risk of a declining AMOC to society is starting to be recognised, there is not yet a system or institution in place to guarantee a way to monitor it.”
AMOC monitoring arrays are still in their infancy – RAPID, the oldest, was launched in 2004. Two decades of data captured so far shows that the AMOC is slowing down. However, scientists will need many more years of data to be able to confidently link the decline to climate change, rather than natural variability in the ocean.
NOC’s Holliday points to the disconnect between scientific and funder timelines:
“The timescale of observations needed in order to be able to detect a climate change signal from the very naturally variable ocean is around 40-60 years…. [And yet], in the Netherlands, they have to apply for a new grant for their ocean moorings every two years. They are going to have to do that for 40 years.
“This is a very inefficient way of getting funding for what should be critical infrastructure.”
This spotlight first appeared in Cited, Carbon Brief’s new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free.
Watch, read, listen
‘BEYOND GROWTH’: A group of economists set out a “roadmap for eradicating poverty beyond growth” in the Guardian.
OIL CAMPAIGN: Politico reported on how “oil industry allies” are campaigning against attribution science, including by working to discredit a US National Academies report that “will examine research into the ways corporate climate pollution is intensifying natural disasters”.
‘FIGHT BACK’: For the Apocalyptic Optimist podcast, Dr Dana Fisher spoke to historian and author Dr Naomi Oreskes about how to “fight back” against climate misinformation.
Coming up
- 8-18 June: Bonn climate talks, Bonn, Germany
- 16-18 June: 11th Our ocean conference, Mombasa, Kenya
- 18 June: International Energy Agency Global Hydrogen Review 2026 report launch
Pick of the jobs
- S-Curve Economics, head of road transport | Salary: £75,000-£80,000. Location: Remote (UK)
- UK Department for Energy Security and Net-Zero, speechwriter to the secretary of state | Salary: £62,595-£69,765. Location: London (hybrid)
- Basque Centre for Climate Change, postdoctoral researcher for JustBioSolar project | Salary: €27,040-€34,320. Location: Bilbao, Spain
- Boston Globe climate science and environment reporter | Salary: Unknown. Location: Boston, US
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño begins | COP31 hosts eye electrification | Atlantic current monitoring at risk appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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