在巴库举行的COP29会议上，Carbon Brief采访了清华大学环境规划与管理系主任王灿教授，讨论了其领导的研究团队发布的《2024全球碳中和年度进展报告》。
该报告由清华大学大学碳中和研究院和环境学院联合发布，评估了不同国家在减缓气候变化的“目标、技术、资金和国际合作”方面的进展，指出了“碳中和目标与减排成果之间的实施差距”。
在这次内容广泛的采访中，王灿教授介绍了该研究所的研究结果并指出了世界实现净零排放的主要障碍。他还分享了对欧盟碳边境调整机制（CBAM）、中国即将提交的2035气候承诺（NDC）、碳市场、“碳双控” 政策、“十四五” 规划、碳达峰时间表、电气化、储能和氢能等的思考。
以下是采访的全文记录，记录已编辑以保证篇幅和清晰度：
- 关于碳中和执行进展：“我们从执行的角度来跟踪（各国碳中和的进展），更注重实际行动和用科学的方法去评估。”
- 关于发展中国家对气候行动的承诺：“发展中国家应对气候变化的决心和紧迫感非常强烈。因为他们更容易受到气候变化的影响，因此他们更加积极。”
- 关于中国2035年国家自主贡献：“我觉得下一轮NDC还是会跟我们的 “双碳” 政策保持一致的，主要更新是把我们的目标跟公约的时间表对标，比如把目标延长到2035年。”
- 关于全球可再生能源：“（全球可再生能源）已经增长得非常快了，但如果我们要实现2030年（可再生能源发电量实现三倍增长的目标），它必须增长得更快。”
- 关于可再生能源三倍增长的障碍：“我们认为（可再生能源）技术已经发展到可以更快部署的阶段……这本是可以实现的，但未能实现的一个重要因素是最近的贸易壁垒问题……我们发现包括美国在内的国家都有这样的政策。”
- 关于欧盟的碳边境调整机制（CBAM）：“我们认为欧盟的CBAM对欧盟来说是积极的，因为它增加了其碳排放法规，它被认为改善了欧盟的内部政策。但是，它对国际合作来说是负面的，因为它是一项单边政策。”
- 关于实现净零排放的不同途径：“有一些国家已经实现了脱钩，看到经济增长不需要增加碳排放后，就宣布了碳达峰和碳中和。中国还没有实现，所以我觉得这也是一个显著特点，对发展中国家来说很有代表性。”
- 关于中国的碳市场：“我认为这方面的进展会更快……先确定一个（减排）总量，再通过碳市场，可以低成本地实现总量目标。”
- 关于无法实现能源强度目标：“各个目标最终都是为中国更广泛的气候行动服务的，所以我们并不执着于这个（能源强度）目标是否实现。 ”
- 关于更早实现碳达峰：“我个人不排除在某个时点，比如2024年、2025年，出现反弹或者增加。总体来看，从近几年的发展趋势……我们处在一个接近峰值的阶段，或者说是一个平台期。我觉得我比较认同这个判断。”
- 关于中国的电气化：“在我的文章中，电气化与可再生能源不是竞争关系，而是互补，相互支持……在构建这种新能源、可再生能源为主导的电力系统的过程中，终端电气化是非常有帮助的。”
- 关于需要储能系统：“储能是新能源系统建设中不可或缺的组成部分，而新能源的主要组成部分是可再生能源。”
- 关于氢气：“现在有很多问题，比如成本高，储存和运输困难，从长远来看，这些问题都需要解决。我们必须努力去解决，因为没有它，未来的体系和碳中和的道路可能会失败。所以它是一项关键的、不可或缺的技术。”
Carbon Brief：您研究中最重要的发现是什么？
王灿：我们从执行的角度来跟踪（各国碳中和的进展），更注重实际行动和用科学的方法去评估。碳排放目标是定在未来几十年之后的，如果单纯看目标，很难评估我们现在的行动是否充分，所以需要科学、系统的方法来评估。我们认为实际行动很重要，评估行动的方法也很重要。
Carbon Brief：您的报告发现发展中国家的“雄心指数”较高，而发达国家的“雄心指数”较低。这里的“雄心指数”是什么意思？
王灿：当我们谈论“雄心指数”或用指数来表达我之前所说的内容时，我们遵循的理念是看行动而不是看宣言。因此，我们会修改各国的雄心指数。例如，一个国家可能宣称它希望尽快实现碳中和，但却采取设置各种障碍，来阻碍技术流动和阻碍全球合作的行动。[这种情况下，]它的目标可能非常雄心勃勃，但它的行动却有负面影响。我们的指数会考虑到这些因素，并在考虑这些因素后给出分数。截至去年，一些发展中国家的得分较高，而一些发达国家的雄心指数相对较低。
Carbon Brief：所以您的意思是，您会检查各国在其国家自主贡献中宣布的目标，并为他们的气候行动打出正分或负分，然后计算出他们的“雄心指数”的分数？
王灿：是的。
Carbon Brief：您对结果感到惊讶吗？
王灿：我并不感到意外，因为我参与联合国气候公约谈判已有十多年。从谈判过程中，我们可以感受到发展中国家应对气候变化的决心和紧迫感非常强烈。因为他们更容易受到气候变化的影响，因此他们更加积极。发达国家虽然有能力和技术，他们的科学家在这方面有更系统、更科学的知识，但他们不像中国这样的发展中国家那样坚持不懈。中国一旦宣布气候目标，就会系统地、持续地推进。而发达国家出于经济和国际贸易竞争的考虑，并没有这样做。
Carbon Brief：西方对中国2035年国家自主贡献（NDC）尤其感兴趣。您认为中国会提出什么新的气候目标，或者下一轮国家自主贡献应该写些什么？
王灿：我觉得下一轮NDC还是会跟我们的 “双碳” 政策保持一致的，主要更新是把我们的目标跟公约的时间表对标，比如把目标延长到2035年。我们已经有2030年要实现的目标了，下一轮NDC又会开启新一轮的2035年要实现的目标。不同阶段有不同的任务，但都是在一个总体框架下。中国已经公布了 “双碳” 目标，设定了两个时间点，建立了 “1+N” 的政策体系，我觉得无非就是在这样一个体系下把2030年到2035年的任务都具体化，这是我个人的理解和期待。
Carbon Brief：您的报告称，目前全球可再生能源发展速度不足以实现COP28提出的“2030年实现三倍增长”的目标，距离实现气候目标所需的部署规模存在“巨大差距”。阻碍更快增长的主要因素是什么？
王灿：我不确定你的问题和我们在报告中想要表达的观点是否完全一致。我对我们在报告中所说的内容的理解是，虽然我们看到可再生能源发展迅速，而且近年来形势十分乐观，但与2030年全球可再生能源发电量增加三倍的要求和2050年全球净零排放目标相比，仍然存在差距。
（全球可再生能源）已经增长得非常快了，但如果我们要实现2030年（可再生能源发电量实现三倍增长的目标），它必须增长得更快，特别是从全球角度来看。现在有一些国家，比如中国和东南亚的印度尼西亚，在过去一两年里部署（可再生能源）非常快，但在全球范围内，我们还没有看到所预期的速度。这是我们想要传达的核心信息，或者说是我们特别想传达的信息。
背后的原因是，我们认为（可再生能源）技术已经发展到可以更快部署的阶段，从我们的研究来看，部署得更快、更广泛之后，这项技术的进步速度就会加快，进入良性循环。这本是可以实现的，但未能实现的一个重要因素是最近的贸易壁垒问题，贸易壁垒已经从原来的高科技和通讯产品扩展到应对气候变化的可再生能源。
这种贸易壁垒是典型的基于传统、非常狭隘的经济利益的做法。它忽视了一个原本来自西方国际贸易理论的事实，即自由的国际贸易可以促进经济发展、技术进步，从而带来新一轮的共赢。忽略这一事实是短视的行为。在可再生能源领域，中长期的经济利益和对气候变化的坚定承诺都被放弃了。所以，我们认为这是可再生能源发展面临的一个需要解决的问题。
Carbon Brief：您能举一个您所提到的贸易壁垒的例子吗？
王灿：例如提高关税——对进口可再生能源设备征收（高额）关税，以及故意征收此类关税。这是我们在（报告中）国家分析里引用的例子。我们发现包括美国在内的国家都有这样的政策。我们的报告设定了一个框架，在这个框架中，我们检查是否有贸易壁垒政策，以及（这些政策）是否得到执行；然后，如果是，我们会查看它们是否针对减少排放所需的绿色和低碳技术；如果是，我们就会给出不同的权重和负分。
Carbon Brief：目前带来影响最严重的贸易壁垒是什么？
王灿：对风能和太阳能进行进口管制，增加关税，或者此类商业管制清单。
Carbon Brief：主要在美国？
王灿：主要在美国。
Carbon Brief：您如何看待欧盟的碳边境调整机制（CBAM）？
王灿：在我们的评估中，我们认为欧盟的CBAM对欧盟来说是积极的，因为它增加了其碳排放法规，它被认为改善了欧盟的内部政策。但是，它对国际合作来说是负面的，因为它是一项单边政策，其影响可能会阻碍前面提到的技术流动、技术的快速传播以及先进技术在全球的快速部署。
当然，我们还要看得更远、更详细，因为未来几年CBAM涵盖的行业范围会发生变化。目前从国际合作的角度来看，它的负面权重并不高。从执行的角度来看，虽然它主要涵盖电力和氢能（以及其他行业），但目前它的范围并不是很大。
Carbon Brief：您的报告说，没有一条 “单一的零碳路径” 可以适用于所有国家，相反，“不同类型的国家需要采取不同的措施” 。中国实现碳中和的最佳路径是什么？与其他国家有何不同？
王灿：是的，我们想说的是，没有一种模式适合所有国家实现净零排放。不同的国家处于不同的发展阶段，经济结构不同，资源条件不同，甚至政治制度和文化特征也不同，所以实现净零排放的路径肯定会有所不同。各国在政策、目标、技术、资金、国际合作方式等方面确实存在差异——我们刚才谈到了——（所以）我们认为不同的国家应该有不同的模式。
对于中国来说，“双碳”是一个中国特色的政策目标，我们要在2030年前达到碳峰值，在2060年前实现碳中和。2030年前碳达峰，意味着我们还需要时间把经济发展和碳排放脱钩。达不到峰值，就说明我们还没有把这些事情脱钩，经济增长（仍会）导致碳排放的增加。为什么呢？因为我们还是一个发展中国家，而且是世界上最大的发展中国家——世界上工业最多的发展中国家。我们的制造业比较大，人口比较多，我们还处于城镇化、工业化的过程中，碳排放和经济发展还没有完全脱钩。即使在这样的情况下，我们也提出了实现碳中和的目标，更加体现了我们的雄心和决心。
有一些国家已经实现了脱钩，看到经济增长不需要增加碳排放后，就宣布了碳达峰和碳中和。中国还没有实现，所以我觉得这也是一个显著特点，对发展中国家来说很有代表性。很多发展中国家跟我们类似，没有实现脱钩，但要明确应对气候变化的措施，实现（碳达峰和碳中和）两个目标。为了到本世纪中叶实现全球净零排放，发展中国家已经提出了一些目标和路径。
那么路径是什么呢？（就是）达到峰值之后再实现中和。首先有一个快速达到峰值的阶段，峰值要尽可能低。这个阶段需要技术支持、资金支持，以及一些能力建设。比如中国正在建设的碳市场，目前还处于能力建设的阶段——收集碳排放数据、（提升）市场的专业交易能力等等。这个阶段对中国来说非常重要。如果这个阶段基础打得不牢，那么达到峰值之后，碳减排、实现碳中和的阶段可能还需要比较长的时间，我们实现碳中和的难度就会加大。
Carbon Brief：说到中国的碳市场，在我们之前的《Carbon Brief》报告中，一些分析师表示，中国的碳市场还没有完全活跃起来，交易可能还没有发挥出最大的潜力。我们如何才能最大限度地发挥碳市场的潜力？
王灿：我认为这方面的进展会更快。因为今年国务院出台了从“能源消费双控”向“碳排放双控”转变的工作方案，明确了时间表。从现在到2030年，以控制碳强度为主，总量控制为辅。但同时也要探索一些总量控制机制。2030年中国碳排放达到峰值后，将以总量控制为主要机制，以控制碳强度为辅。
只要有总量控制目标，碳交易和碳市场体系就能发挥减排作用。因为碳交易这样的政策工具，本质上就是要以低成本实现一定的总量目标。总量控制目标只是给出一个数量，但这个目标是否能有效分配给排放单位，政府并没有足够的信息去判断。通过碳交易和碳市场，可以以最低的成本实现减排。所以直接回答这个问题的话，（就是）先确定一个（减排）总量，再通过碳市场，可以低成本地实现总量目标。
Carbon Brief：您提到从“能源双控”转向“碳排放双控”。有观点认为，由于今年GDP增速低于排放增速，中国可能无法实现排放强度总量目标。您认为这会产生很大影响吗？
王灿：您指的是什么影响？
Carbon Brief：“十四五” 规划。“十四五” 规划制定了总体能源强度降低目标，但由于经济增长速度低于能源消耗速度，这一目标可能无法实现。
王灿：是的，能源强度目标。
Carbon Brief：您认为这会减缓整个减排进程吗（十四五规划）？
王灿：我认为这个（能源强度）目标是为了实现更广泛的减排目标，因此能否实现可能是最初设定目标时考虑的一个因素。例如，当目标设定在2020年左右时，它没有考虑到近年来的经济形式和技术变化。事实上，与这个目标相对应的还有一个目标，那就是可再生能源总量（到2030年，风能和太阳能发电量达到1200GW）……[这个目标]实现得非常快。所以我们设定的目标中，一些容易实现，也有一些可能比预期更难实现。我想我应该回到我之前的观点，即各个目标最终都是为中国更广泛的气候行动服务的，所以我们并不执着于这个（能源强度）目标是否实现。
从近年来中国推动“双碳”工作来看，中国在（气候）政策建设、降低可再生能源技术开发成本、加快应用速度等方面取得了很大进展。从中央到省级再到市级政府，都在自上而下地围绕公众意识提升、数据收集等推动生态工作的能力建设和推进，比如基线数据的构建，包括探索将碳（排放影响）评价纳入环境影响评价。这些也是我们在《全球碳中和进展报告》中表达的观点。从这个角度看，我们认为习近平总书记提出“双碳”目标以来，中国近三年来的工作是走在正确的轨道上的，有助于我们在2030年前实现碳达峰、在2060年前实现碳中和。
我们正在做扎实的基础工作。这不是口号或“运动式”的工作，（“运动式”的工作）可能带来（短期的）减排，然后反弹。如果我们想可持续地减排，就需要经济和社会的系统性变革。这种系统性变革必须从刚才提到的角度出发，我们必须做一些基础工作。一些工作（带来的变化）在短期内可能不会很快见效，因为（排放）仍然处于攀升阶段，总量还没有完全减少。但这是我们在短期内为长期做准备，而短期是我们无法避免的一个阶段。
Carbon Brief：我们之前发表过一篇分析文章，根据数据，中国可能在2023年就达到碳排放峰值。您如何看待这个研究结果？
王灿：我认为预测峰值不是一种科学方法。到目前为止，我还没有看到任何指标或研究能够预测一个国家已经达到峰值。这是必须用时间来判断的事情，而且可能需要几年时间（峰值出现后），因为排放量可能会反弹。当然，分析和研究需要考虑很多因素，比如人口增长、经济增长、产业结构、能源需求及其背后的能源技术。
有很多指标可以帮助我们做这样的分析。从现有的指标分析来看，我觉得2023年达到峰值没有错，肯定是可信的。但我个人不排除在某个时点，比如2024年、2025年，出现反弹或者增加。总体来看，从近几年的发展趋势，包括我们做的系统性准备，中央对“双碳”目标的决心，我们处在一个接近峰值的阶段，或者说是一个平台期。我觉得我比较认同这个判断。
[本次采访后发布的Carbon Brief分析显示，中国的二氧化碳排放量在 2024 年最后 10 个月停止上升，但总体上仍略有增长。]
Carbon Brief：您之前的研究指出，电气化是减少排放的一种方法，具有经济效益。国际能源署(IEA)最近也强调了中国在这方面的快速进步。您能谈谈中国的战略、电气化的现状以及中国可以采取哪些措施来推进电气化吗？
王灿：在我的文章中，电气化与可再生能源不是竞争关系，而是互补，相互支持。可再生能源取代化石能源，构建新的电力系统，这是我们（为实现）净零排放所希望达成的目标。在构建这种新能源、可再生能源为主导的电力系统的过程中，终端电气化是非常有帮助的。为什么呢？因为终端电气化对节能有（积极）影响，也可以调节可再生能源的不稳定供应。同时，电气化可以更好地吸纳一些储能设施，加速储能的技术进步。另外，电气化减少了对化石能源的依赖。它与可再生能源并不是非此即彼的零和博弈。可再生能源发展得越多，我们就越有信心将其用于终端消费。
Carbon Brief：您能再解释一下吗？电气化如何 “吸纳储能”？
王灿：电气化是指在终端用户（如锅炉）直接消耗能源。所以当我们谈论电气化时，我们需要看看电气化的对象是什么。电气化是指（使用电锅炉）取代燃煤和天然气锅炉用于工业供热，或使用电动汽车（EV）取代汽油车，或使用电磁炉取代天然气用于烹饪。所有这些都直接减少了化石能源的消耗。
如果所有传统的化石能源都被电力取代，我们对储能的需求就不会增长。电动汽车是锂电池在汽车领域的应用。工业用的热泵也可以配备储能。这在终端使用方面开辟了新的储能需求。储能是新能源系统建设中不可或缺的组成部分，而新能源的主要组成部分是可再生能源。正如我们上面提到的，储能是这个系统中的一个环节。
Carbon Brief：南方普遍使用电热泵，北方则以燃煤集中供暖为主，有什么办法，比如政策支持等，可以帮助北方快速转向热泵？
王灿：这个问题我也不是特别清楚，但我认为还是集中在技术难点上。因为北方的供热需求比南方更根本、更迫切。比如说，在北方，低温时的供暖是民生问题。南方热泵的需求可能通过低温锅炉生产来满足，（低温锅炉）在今天、今晚、明天都可以生产，有一定的生产灵活性。所以为南方供应热泵没有那么迫切。北方（使用煤炭进行集中供暖）可以更安全。所以热泵的安全性、技术、适用性可能有所不同。我觉得不只是政策问题，还需要技术进一步发展。
Carbon Brief：您对氢有什么看法？
王灿：我认为，就像电气化一样，它可能是未来构建碳中和技术体系的一个非常重要的技术领域。可再生能源的特点之一是，一旦供应量增加，它就会具有间歇性，因此需要储能。储能意味着它可以在没有需求时储存能源，并在供应不能满足需求时提供一些能源。（氢）既是一种更好的储能方式，也是一种开发化学储备的方式，因为它的生产方法——电解，可以利用来自太阳能和风的多余的可再生能源。
这种储能方式不同于传统的制氢方式，（传统上）氢气是化工行业的副产品，甚至是石油和化石燃料直接转化而来的。（氢能源）是一种当前的能源转化趋势和形式，而不是储能的一种形式。但在碳中和技术体系中，氢气（被认为）是一种储能形式。
可再生能源发电系统（与化石能源系统）最核心的区别是，它的边际成本非常低，几乎是零边际运行成本。所以风电、太阳能用上之后，扣除基础设施和固定资产投资的成本，风电、太阳能发电的成本几乎是零。零边际运行成本可以用来电解，你可以理解为用零成本来制氢，到时候氢气的成本就非常低了。
Carbon Brief：但是我听说目前氢气生产的成本相当高？
王灿：是的，那是因为还没有取得足够的进展。当我们仍在使用水电解来制造氢气时，风能和太阳能的成本分摊在电解水所用的电力上。它没有使用剩余的（可再生）电力进行电解，因为没有那么多的剩余电力。当我们电力系统中的风能和太阳能比例达到一定水平时，就会有更多的剩余电力。为了储存多余的电力，我们目前使用锂电池和其他（技术）来储存这些电力，而不是使用电解来制造氢气。所以我认为氢是一种新的储能形式。
同时，氢能对于终端用户来说也是一种清洁的新能源形式，它可以替代天然气、汽油，它转化成氨之后，还可以替代重型卡车甚至邮轮使用的石油，它是可以预见的清洁能源形式，也是终端能源。所以我觉得它非常关键。现在有很多问题，比如成本高，储存和运输困难，从长远来看，这些问题都需要解决。我们必须努力去解决，因为没有它，未来的体系和碳中和的道路可能会失败。所以它是一项关键的、不可或缺的技术。
此次采访由Wanyuan Song于2024年11月16日在巴库举行的COP29会议上进行。
The post Carbon Brief 采访清华大学王灿教授 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
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The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.
To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
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The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.
Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.
The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.
Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.
This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025
Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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