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Angola has scaled back its targets for reducing emissions in its new national climate plan, saying it chose “realism and implementability” over the Paris Agreement’s calls for governments to set progressively more ambitious goals.

The African oil-exporting country plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 11% by 2035 from a “business as usual” scenario. That compares to a 24% cut by 2025 in its previous Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which used an earlier baseline year with far lower emissions.

Under the 2015 climate treaty, countries’ NDCs – which should be updated every five years, with the third round since the Paris pact due this year – are meant to represent a progression from the previous one and reflect the “highest possible ambition”.

Citing the country’s struggles to meet previous targets, Angola’s NDC said the level of ambition “must also take into account national circumstances, capabilities and the need for sustainable development, particularly in developing countries such as Angola”.

It said progress on different climate projects to date has been hampered by limited technical capacity, coordination gaps and a lack of financial and technological support, despite strong political will and policies.

    “The targets for the period … have been set to reflect the most realistic and feasible conditions for Angola,” the NDC added. “While the percentage targets are less ambitious than those in the previous NDC, they correspond to a greater absolute reduction” in greenhouse gas emissions, it noted.

    At the same time, the country shifted the baseline used to measure future cuts to a far higher level than in its previous NDC, mainly due to upward revision of emissions from changes to land use. That makes the figures difficult to compare, but allows emissions to nearly double from estimated 2015 levels by 2035.

    Climate finance gap

    Many developing countries, like Angola, split their NDCs into two parts – one that they can achieve with their own domestic resources and an additional effort that depends on them receiving financial support from the international community.

    Some NDCs specify the amount of money required to implement the so-called conditional part of their pledges.

    Yet, while climate finance mobilised by rich governments and development banks for cutting emissions and adapting to climate change in developing countries rose to nearly $116 billion in 2022, this is far below estimated needs. Experts have also warned that overseas aid cuts could lead to a fall in funding from some donors.

    With a 5% unconditional target for reducing emissions and a 6% conditional contribution, Angola estimates it will need about $412 billion to achieve the emissions-cutting goal. It plans to get $48 billion of that from domestic resources and the rest from international support.

    The measures it is proposing to reach its 2035 targets include expanding renewable energy and reducing flaring in oil fields, as well as reforestation programmes and more efficient, less carbon-intensive solutions for industry.

    “Reflection of realities”

    For Angola, there is a further complication, however. Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-biggest crude oil exporter is in the process of graduating from the UN’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) category, and fears missing out on climate finance targeting the group of the world’s poorest nations as a result.

    Despite the Southern African nation’s economic and social development gains, it is saddled with a heavy public debt that was equivalent to almost 70% of its gross domestic product last year.

    The new NDC said Angola’s current financial resources were not compatible with the rising ambition set out in the Paris Agreement, adding that the situation could get worse due to the looming loss of certain benefits granted to LDCs such as public development aid.

    Panama environment minister backs calls for reform of UN climate process

    Giza Gaspar-Martins, a former Angolan climate negotiator who has served as chair of the Least Developed Countries Group in climate talks, said Angola’s updated NDC was simply a “reflection of realities”.

    He said the plan includes what the country intends to achieve with domestic resources (unconditionally) and what it can achieve with additional international support (conditionally) and “whether it is a higher number or a lower number, it doesn’t matter, but it is a reflection of realities”.

    But other climate experts said that while Angola’s move was understandable, it runs counter to the UN treaty.

    Joanna Depledge, a research fellow at the Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance at the University of Cambridge, said Angola’s move was against “the spirit of the Paris Agreement”, but added it should not be judged in the same way as rich countries backing away from their climate targets.

    While she noted that – due to the wording used in the treaty – progressively higher targets are not legally binding, “the assumption was that countries must improve their ambition each time”.

    In the past decade, countries have not done enough to increase emissions-cutting ambition to the level needed to get the world on a path to limit warming to 1.5C as they agreed to aim for in the Paris Agreement.

    To keep the 1.5C goal within reach, countries must reduce emissions by at least 43% from 2019 levels by 2030 – but the last set of NDCs for that target year only represented a 7% reduction, according to a report by the World Resources Institute. It also noted that 23 of those NDCs would not have reduced emissions relative to the initial plan and 42 could not be compared due to insufficient information.

    Short on ambition

    Angola is not the only country to have submitted an updated NDC in the latest round that fails to raise ambition on climate action, according to researchers.

      Russia’s new NDC outlines plans to reduce emissions to 33%-35% below 1990 levels by 2035, a goal analysts at the Climate Action Tracker nonprofit said not only fails to reflect “highest ambition”, but marks no real increase at all.

      And Turkey, which is bidding to host COP31, recently announced an NDC that would only control emissions rather than reduce them, putting its emissions on track to keep increasing by 2035.

      China’s new NDC – while the first time it has set a goal for absolute emissions cuts – is also judged to be easily achievable based on its current performance, with analysts saying it could have offered more.

      China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035

      Angola’s departure from the LDC category puts it in “a difficult context”, conceded Bill Hare, CEO of global climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics, but said weaker efforts by any country are bad news for the goal to limit global warming to 1.5C.

      While the biggest emitters need to do more, “it’s also important that smaller emitters put forward the highest possible ambition,” Hare said, adding that development aid cuts and a fracturing of multilateralism since US President Donald Trump took office are affecting poorer countries in need of climate finance.

      Without stronger 2030 and 2035 targets to reduce emissions by all countries, he warned that the chances of limiting warming to 1.5C or even 2C “will start to become very small, leading to massive adverse damages and consequences everywhere”.

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      Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline

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      Four Ugandan farmers filed a case with London’s High Court on Tuesday, aiming to stop the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) from starting to operate by asking the court to apply Uganda’s laws against the project’s UK-registered company.

      The controversial 1,443-kilometre (897-mile) pipeline, majority-owned by French energy company ​TotalEnergies, aims to carry crude from Ugandan fields for export through neighbouring Tanzania. About 80% has been built so far, according to its developers.

      The pipeline’s first oil exports are expected as soon as October, according to its developers, and the campaign group Avaaz, which is backing the farmers’ crowdfunded lawsuit, called it “one final chance to stop one of the worst oil pipelines on the planet”.

      The claim, filed by London law firm Leigh Day, argues that EACOP Ltd’s role in developing and operating the pipeline breaches Ugandan laws that protect citizens’ right to a clean and healthy environment.

        One of the claimants, Racheal Tugume, told a press conference she had been displaced from her land due to the pipeline’s construction, which she said had damaged local rivers, wildlife and ecosystems that communities depend on for their livelihoods just as erratic weather linked to climate change takes an increasing toll.

        “I am very happy that there are people in countries like the UK who are listening to us, who are behind us and who have come to support us,” Tugume said, adding that she hoped the case would bring justice to communities affected by the pipeline.

        Ugandan law in UK court

        While the pipeline is a joint venture led by TotalEnergies, with smaller stakes owned by Ugandan, Tanzanian and Chinese national oil firms, it is operated by EACOP Ltd, a company registered to an office in London’s Canary Wharf financial district.

        EACOP Ltd did not respond to a request for comment.

        The claim appears to be the first attempt to have Uganda’s climate and environmental protections enforced in a foreign court, partly reflecting concerns over whether cases challenging the multibillion-dollar pipeline would get a fair trial in Uganda.

        Ugandans living near new oil pipeline let down by compensation programmes

        Concerns about access to a fair hearing are among the issues the court will consider when deciding if it should take on the case, said Matthew Renshaw, partner at Leigh Day.

        Renshaw said that precedents including the Nigerian oil pollution case against Shell have shown that claims against British-registered companies for harms overseas can be successfully fought in UK courts.

        “We are proud to represent the four brave principled individuals,” Renshaw said.

        Constitutional protections

        The pipeline project has already been subject to repeated lawsuits in several countries, none of which have succeeded. A climate lawsuit filed in Uganda more than a decade ago by a group of young people has yet to conclude. Another at the East African Court of Justice, brought by campaign groups against Uganda and Tanzania, was rejected on procedural grounds last November.

        A separate ongoing lawsuit in TotalEnergies’ home country of France – a refiled version of an earlier failed claim – cannot stop EACOP going ahead, but it does seek damages from TotalEnergies for affected communities.

        With the newly launched case, Leigh Day’s legal adviser Marc Willers said the claim draws on specific Ugandan laws in a bid to stop EACOP’s operations.

        Uganda may see lower oil revenues than expected as costs rise and demand falls

        These include the Ugandan constitution, a 2019 environmental law and the National Climate Change Act 2021, which gives Ugandans the right to bring a case before a court in circumstances where anyone or any entity threatens the country’s ability to mitigate climate change.

        Stopping a “carbon bomb”

        The pipeline, which will link Uganda’s Lake Albert oil fields to Africa’s east coast in Tanzania, has already displaced thousands of people and cuts through the Lake Victoria basin, one of East Africa’s major freshwater systems and a critical water source for around 40 million people.

        According to the BankTrack non-profit, when the pipeline is at peak production, it will carry 216,000 barrels of crude oil per day and release over 33 million tonnes of carbon emissions each year. Over its full lifetime of 25 years, it is estimated to release about 379 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions across its value chain including construction, refining and product use.

        A May 2026 report from Earth Insight also warns that the pipeline and related infrastructure could affect 158 wetlands in Uganda, 11 rivers, 44 protected areas and seven key biodiversity areas while disrupting about 2,000 square km of protected wildlife habitats.

        This is why the primary focus of the UK court case is to stop the operation of the pipeline in its tracks, Leigh Day’s Willers said, calling it a “carbon bomb” that would worsen the world’s climate crisis.

        Long wait for first hearing

        While the purpose of the case is to stop the pipeline from launching operations, Renshaw said it could take about 12 months before the case gets a first hearing and about 18 months before it goes to trial.

        Billions unlocked as Green Climate Fund agrees to spend more and save less

        The farmers are, however, seeking an injunction to stop EACOP Ltd from proceeding with operations. In the event that shipments begin, the lawsuit will still seek to stop the pipeline from then on, Renshaw said.

        “We will be doing what we can to expedite matters but it is possible that EACOP will have started operating the pipeline before the claim is heard. If that is the case, the claim would intend to halt operations from that point. For example, the pipeline may operate for just one year rather than 30-plus, resulting in far less harm,” he said.

        The post Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline appeared first on Climate Home News.

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        Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole

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        Welcome to Cited, your essential guide to new climate research.

        In the news

        ‘HEAT ALERT’: At least 25 people died as a “heat dome” smothered the eastern half of the US, reported the Guardian, with more than 20 states under “stifling temperatures more than 100F (38C)”. More than 140 million people were under heat alerts, the outlet said, with dead bodies found in “homes with no air conditioning, outside their residences, on the street and in parked cars”. Analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that the combined heat and humidity would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused warming, reported the New York Times.

        ‘MORTALITY WILL RISE FURTHER’: Meanwhile, extreme heat continued to hit Europe, with Le Monde reporting on temperatures of 40C in France, Portugal and Spain again this past weekend, alongside “devastating” wildfires. Public Health France doubled its preliminary estimate of the “excess deaths” from the extreme heat in late June, from 1,000 to more than 2,000, according to the Guardian. The higher figure was still “probably an underestimate”, the agency said. Analysis published by Carbon Brief put the figure at 2,700 heat-related deaths. A WWA attribution study, covered by Carbon Brief, found that Europe’s June heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” even 50 years ago.

        ‘BOOST TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURES’: The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “raised its forecast for ​the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño in the coming months, ‌warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher”, reported Reuters. A WMO scientist told the newswire that “El Niño conditions have emerged ⁠in the equatorial Pacific and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that ​this will be a strong El Niño”.

        Research picks

        Extremes

        • The annual season when “intense” tropical cyclones occur has lengthened by 10-14 days per decade across the world since the 1980s | Nature Communications
        • There is an “increasing” and “overlooked” global threat from glacial outburst floods from small lakes | Nature Sustainability
        • Female smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa experience crops losses 2-2.5 times greater than male smallholders in periods of extreme heat | Nature Sustainability

        Policy

        • The summaries for policymakers in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mitigation reports over 2001-22 “have not yet become more solution-oriented while abiding by their policy-neutrality principle” | npj Climate Action
        • Two-thirds of countries address inequality in their national pledges under the Paris Agreement – particularly in “countries with lower levels of human development and greater income inequality” | Climate and Development
        • To “future proof” the Paris Agreement’s “well-below 2C” limit, it should be interpreted as a median “peak warming” of 1.6-1.8C, rather than a 66-90% chance of staying below 2C | Nature Climate Change

        Land sink

        • From 2001 to 2015, northern Eurasia absorbed about 0.47bn tonnes of carbon each year – around one-third of the total global land carbon sink | Global Biogeochemical Cycles
        • Model simulations of potential land-use carbon emissions out to 2100 show that “deforestation and forest regrowth dominate variability” of emissions, with policy timing and ambition “exerting strong control” | Nature Communications
        • Tropical forests are facing an increase in areas that exceed critical temperatures where their “photosynthetic system breaks down” | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

        Captured

        On 21 June, global average sea surface temperature (SST) reached a record high for the day of the year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Daily SST for the global ocean, excluding polar regions, reached 20.86C on 21 June, exceeding the 20.83C reached on the same day in both 2023 and 2024, the C3S said. Global SST has remained at record levels for every day since. The conditions “could indicate the beginning of a new phase, leading, once more, to uncharted territory”, said C3S director Carlo Buontempo.


        56 hours and 30 hours

        The amount of time that the average lifespan of tropical cyclones in the north-east and north-west Pacific has shortened, respectively, over 1982-2024, according to a study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. This shorter lifespan “compresses the time available for weather forecasting and disaster preparedness”, the authors said.


        Spotlight

        The ozone hole and climate change

        As a new “thought experiment” asks whether the hole in the ozone layer could, theoretically, have been identified decades before it was discovered, Carbon Brief explores the interactions between climate change and the ozone hole.

        It is now more than 40 years since the discovery of the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, detailed in the journal Nature in 1985.

        A study more than a decade earlier had predicted that chlorine-based substances – such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – could lead to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere.

        So, in theory, how early could the ozone hole have been detected?

        New research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, explored this very question.

        Study co-author Prof Susan Solomon from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is a leading atmospheric scientist. In the late 1980s, Solomon and colleagues identified the mechanism behind how CFCs were causing ozone depletion.

        The new study is a “thought experiment”, Solomon told Carbon Brief, asking when scientists could have discovered the ozone hole had they had access to modern satellite observations.

        “We found that depletion could have been detected as early as 1957 in the tropical upper stratosphere, where natural variability is especially small,” explained Solomon.

        This would have been before the use of CFCs became widespread, Solomon added. Instead, early ozone depletion was caused by carbon tetrachloride, a chemical used as a cleaning agent, as well as in fire extinguishers and for producing refrigerants.

        For many decades, the ozone hole and global warming have often been confused by the public and the media, Solomon explained:

        “It’s common to imagine that because ozone is so important at shielding us from the UV [ultraviolet] light that causes skin cancer, then having less ozone must mean the Earth would warm up.”

        For example, in a 1995 editorial, the Los Angeles Times congratulated the Nobel prize-winning chemists who identified the threat of CFCs to the ozone layer. The newspaper noted that these processes “threaten calamitous global warming by damaging the Earth’s protective layer of ozone”.

        However, said Solomon, “the Earth is warmed much more by visible light – UV doesn’t really contribute, so ozone depletion doesn’t cause significant warming”.

        Regional impacts

        The depletion of ozone actually has a very small cooling effect at the Earth’s surface. But this is more than outweighed by the warming impact of CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances.

        This warming impact means that efforts to reverse ozone depletion have had a beneficial impact on the climate.

        The Montreal Protocol, a 1987 international agreement to phase out CFCs, “has played – and is playing – a very substantial role in safeguarding climate too”, said Solomon:

        “It turns out that the CFCs and their replacement gases HCFCs [hydrochlorofluorocarbons] are strong greenhouse gases, so phasing out their production has not only avoided a lot of ozone depletion that would otherwise have occurred, it also had a big influence on global warming.”

        HCFCs were considered as “transitional substitutes” for CFCs – they still damaged ozone, but to a lesser extent – until ozone-safe alternatives were commercially available.

        Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are not ozone depleting, began to be used widely in the 1990s. However, HFCs are also potent greenhouse gases. HFCs and similar replacements are now being phased out under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

        While the ozone hole itself has only a very small impact on global temperatures, it does have a clear impact on the regional climate over Antarctica.

        Prof David Thompson from Colorado State University, working with colleagues including Solomon, has published research demonstrating that “changes in southern-hemisphere winds linked to the stratospheric ozone losses extend all the way down to the ground in some seasons”, explained Solomon.

        This has “reduc[ed] warming that would have occurred in interior Antarctica and enhanc[ed] warming in the Antarctic Peninsula region”, she said.

        The knock-on impacts include “wind changes [that] actually extend beyond Antarctica to the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere, where they even affect rainfall”, she added.

        Preprints to watch

        Carbon Brief’s pick of new papers under review

        • The drying impact over Africa from using stratospheric aerosol injections to stabilise global temperatures would only be minimised “when combined with a strong decarbonisation effort” | Earth System Dynamics
        • The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole could “shape” the playing conditions at the Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia | Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
        • A “strong” weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would “profoundly alter the climate-carbon cycle system”, underscoring the “importance of explicitly accounting for AMOC risks in long-term climate assessments” | Earth System Dynamics

        Noticeboard

        • 6 July-25 September: Registration open for experts to review the first-order draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group I report 
        • 7-15 July: UN High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, New York
        • 19 July: Application deadline for a postdoctoral scholar in transdisciplinary climate research at Penn State University, US | Salary: unknown
        • 22 July: Application deadline for PhD project on “climate change impacts on the Antarctic coastal ocean carbon sink” at the University of East Anglia, UK
        • 26 July: Application deadline for PhD projects on “AI for land-atmosphere feedbacks during hydroclimatic extremes” at the Helmholtz School for Integrated Data Science in Environmental & Life Sciences, Germany
        • 29 July: Application deadline for an assistant professor in Earth and environmental geosciences (palaeoclimatology) at Colgate University, US | Salary: $97,500-101,500
        • 31 July: Application deadline for PhD project on Arctic Ocean methane oxidation at Stockholm University, Sweden

        Cited is researched and written by Cecilia Keating, Robert McSweeney, Ayesha Tandon, Daisy Dunne and Dr Giuliana Viglione.

        Please send tips, feedback and upcoming climate research to cited@carbonbrief.org

        This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cited email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

        The post Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole appeared first on Carbon Brief.

        Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole

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        Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths

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        In June 2026, a record-breaking heatwave swept across Europe, with France among the first and hardest hit countries.

        In a new analysis, we estimate that the extreme conditions caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths in France.

        We also show how France’s extreme temperatures in June exceeded projections from climate models.

        Our findings illustrate the human toll of extreme weather as the world warms.

        We also highlight the challenges in projecting the magnitude of future heatwaves and their impacts on people.

        Outpacing projections

        For most of this century, Europe has seen summer heat extremes that outpace projections from climate models.

        Several different factors likely explain this trend, including reductions in planet-cooling aerosols as nations have cleaned up their air pollution, as well as changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which models struggle to represent.

        In June 2026, daily high temperatures averaged across France reached 36.9C, shattering the previous June record set in 2022 by 2.4C.

        [For more on the impacts and coverage of Europe’s June heatwave, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.]

        The rise in observed temperatures in France has outpaced projections made by climate models, with June maximum temperatures more in line with what was expected for the 2070s.

        This is illustrated in the figure below, which shows how France’s average maximum daily high temperature for June recorded in 2026 (black line) compares to climate model projections (blue and orange lines).

        Comparison of observed (ERA5, black) and modelled (blue and orange) temperatures across France from 2000 to 2080. Plot shows the maximum daily high temperature recorded in June for each year, after averaging temperatures across France. The model ensembles are bias-corrected CMIP6 model ensembles from the NEX-GDDP (blue) and CIL-GDPCIR (orange) projects. The dashed blue and orange lines are the ensemble averages. Credit: Prof Andrew Dessler.
        Comparison of observed (ERA5, black) and modelled (blue and orange) temperatures across France from 2000 to 2080. Plot shows the maximum daily high temperature recorded in June for each year, after averaging temperatures across France. The model ensembles are bias-corrected CMIP6 model ensembles from the NEX-GDDP (blue) and CIL-GDPCIR (orange) projects. The dashed blue and orange lines are the ensemble averages. Credit: Prof Andrew Dessler.

        Counting the death toll of climate change

        The downstream impacts of these extreme temperatures are lethal.

        Scientists are able to estimate the death toll of high temperatures in many locations, depending on the availability of mortality and climate data.

        There are several ways to do this.

        One option is to examine death certificates to see which deaths have been directly recorded by physicians as related to heat. However, there is strong evidence that this method significantly undercounts heat-related deaths, as most death certificates do not consider environmental factors such as heat when diagnosing the cause of death.

        Alternatively, it is possible to calculate the rate of total (“all-cause”) mortality in a given time period relative to previous time periods – for example, by comparing the total number of deaths in June 2026 compared to the average of previous Junes. This “excess deaths” figure can be used as an estimate of the deaths from a heat wave.

        Using this approach, Public Health France attributed around 2,000 deaths in France to the extreme heat in the week of 22-28 June.

        Finally, scientists can use long-term data on overall mortality and correlate changes in mortality with changes in temperature to understand the statistical relationship between the two.

        Research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2025 that used this third approach found that mortality rates in France increase rapidly in cold or hot conditions as daily maximum temperatures depart further from approximately 20C.

        This pattern of a U-shaped response of mortality to temperature – shown in the figure below – is very consistent across time periods and regions around the world.

        Chart showing the relationship between extreme heat and mortality in France
        Relationship between daily high temperature and all-cause mortality rates in France, estimated using data over 2004-19. Credit: Dr Christopher Callahan, based on data and methods in Callahan et al. (2025)

        To calculate the death toll of the June 2026 heatwave in France, we compared observed temperatures over 12-29 June to their baseline average over 1980-2025.

        The difference between these two temperatures helps us understand how many more people died than they would have in the absence of such extreme conditions.

        Over 12-29 June, we found that France has experienced around 2,700 heat-related deaths above the average baseline. Day-to-day heat-related mortality rates rose from less than 100 to almost 300 on the hottest days of 24 and 25 June.

        This is shown in the graph below, which illustrates the cumulative total heat-related deaths seen in France over the two-and-a-half week period. The inset shows how heat-related deaths fluctuated on a day-to-day basis during this time.

        Chart showing the number of deaths from heat in France during the June 2026 heatwave
        Estimated heat-related mortality over 12-29 June, based on a U-shaped response of mortality to temperature. The main plot shows cumulative total deaths and the inset shows daily deaths. Credit: Dr Christopher Callahan, based on data and methods in Callahan et al. (2025)

        Recent analysis by World Weather Attribution has already shown that human-caused climate change increased the frequency and intensity of the June heat wave across Europe.

        Meanwhile, previous research has shown there is substantial evidence that heat-related mortality in Europe has already been elevated by greenhouse gas emissions.

        As a result, we can be confident that at least some of the more than 2,700 deaths already seen in France are directly due to the burning of fossil fuels.

        Calculating climate risk

        In April, the UN-led body responsible for coordinating the work of climate modelling centres – the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP) – unveiled a set of seven new emissions scenarios.

        These are designed to replace the previous scenarios that have been used by scientists to understand how the climate might change in the future. They will feed into the upcoming seven assessment report (AR7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

        The range of future emissions in the new CMIP scenarios is smaller, with scenarios of very high or very low emissions no longer on the table.

        The retirement of the very-high emissions scenario – known as “RCP8.5” – led to certain commentators in the media and in politics, including US president Donald Trump, arguing that the risks of climate change had been “overstated”.

        [For more on false and misleading claims around the new emissions scenarios, see Carbon Brief’s factcheck.]

        Our analysis of June’s heat-related deaths in France suggests that, even if the most severe emissions pathways are no longer needed, climate impacts are taking a heavy toll on society.

        Moreover, the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.

        This is because greenhouse gas emissions are only a first step in estimating the impacts of climate change.

        The second step is converting emissions to changes in the climate at both the global and local levels – or hazards. This includes heatwaves, flash floods and droughts.

        The third step is to determine how changes in the hazards will affect local populations. This can be determined by calculating people’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards.

        Substantial uncertainty persists at every stage of this sequence.

        For example, scientists do not know exactly how the global climate will react to ever-rising greenhouse gas emissions – nor the extent to which global temperature increases will drive local climate hazards. We also do not know how climate change at a local level impacts human health outcomes.

        Managing the future of heat risk

        Almost all heat-related deaths are preventable.

        Adaptation options, such as air conditioning, heat action plans and social support for isolated people, will be crucial as the climate moves away from the typical conditions that people are used to.

        Our previous research showed that France made a lot of progress reducing heat-related mortality after the deadly 2003 summer heatwave by taking many of these actions.

        Adaptation can reduce deaths, but it cannot eliminate the risk created by continued warming.

        Without a move away from fossil fuels, future heatwaves will keep testing the limits of public health systems and more people will die.

        The post Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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