The installation of solar panels and heat pumps in UK homes soared in 2023, driving the country to its highest-ever level of domestic low-carbon technology upgrades.
Registered solar photovoltaic (PV) installations rose nearly 30% to a post-subsidy record of 189,826 in 2023, according to the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS).
Similarly, heat-pump installations were up 20%, reaching a record 36,799.
This growth drove a UK record for the total number of domestic renewable electricity and low-carbon heat technologies installations registered by MCS, which reached 229,618.
This brings the total MCS-certified installations of solar PV overall to 1,441,753 since 2009, equivalent to more than 5% of all UK households.
The near-record figure for home solar in 2023 is particularly significant because it came without any government support, whereas previous growth was driven by deadlines under the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) subsidy scheme, which ended in 2019.
Below, Carbon Brief looks at MCS’s installation figures for 2023, picking out some of the most significant domestic developments.
Record clean energy growth
The UK had already recorded its “best-ever” year for renewable energy and low-carbon heat installations before 2023 came to end, as Solar Power Portal reported in December.
While solar PV and air-source heat pumps (ASHP) saw growth in their installation rates in 2023, other clean technologies dropped off somewhat.
By the end of the year, a record total of 229,618 MCS certified installations had been registered (there is the potential for a small change to the total, due to a lag with registrations, MCS told Carbon Brief).
This included a post-subsidy record 189,826 solar PV installations, up by a third from the 138,020 seen in 2022.
Solar Energy UK chief executive Chris Hewett said in a statement:
“Setting a post-subsidy record of almost 190,000 smaller-scale solar PV installations, and approaching the all-time record of 203,000, is truly a moment to celebrate. The solar industry is on a roll, particularly as we start to conclude work on the government-industry Solar Taskforce, whose roadmap for delivering 70GW [gigawatts] of capacity is due to be published in a couple of months.”
The number of MCS-registered ASHP installations grew to a record 36,799 in 2023 from 29,490 a year earlier. (The real number of heat pumps installed in the UK is likely to be higher, as there is currently no mandate for all low-carbon technology deployments to be certified, or reported in a single place.)
Bean Beanland, director for growth at trade association the Heat Pump Federation, tells Carbon Brief the growth in demand for ASHPs was being driven by increasing activity from “early movers”, as well as by the boiler upgrade scheme (BUS) subsidy, which was introduced in 2022 and increased in 2023.
The BUS initially offered a £5,000 grant for those installing an ASHP or biomass boiler and £6,000 for a ground-source heat pump (GSHP). This was raised to £7,500 for both ASHPs and GSHPs in October 2023.
Beanland adds:
“[Following the increase in the grant] one of our members went back to all the consumers who they had quoted during 2023, detailing the increase, but where they had not converted the opportunity. The result was a significant number of contracts, so the additional £2,500 has certainly made a difference.
“In parallel, the whole visibility of the technology is being driven by the likes of Octopus, Good Energy and OVO, with their very high-profile campaigns and the advent of time-of-use tariffs that improve the financial benefits considerably.”
Customers who are able to afford to deploy solar PV, a battery and a heat pump can use such tariffs to reduce operational cost, allowing the heat pump to compete with gas, he adds.
The number of GSHP installations fell from 3,420 to 2,469, while solar-thermal installations nearly halved, falling from 615 to 311.
Beanland says:
“The value of the BUS for ground-source is just far too low. Government has made a conscious decision to go for numbers rather than the highest efficiency by supporting air-source to a much greater extent. This has been compounded now that the BUS levels for air- and ground- are the same.”
The surge in ASHP means that low-carbon heating technologies still saw an overall increase in 2023, rising by 20% year-on-year, as reported by BusinessGreen.
Despite this growth, however, the installation of heat pumps remains a long way from hitting the UK government target of 600,000 installations per year by 2028.
While the MCS dashboard does not provide data on battery storage installations, a recent release from the company states that 2023 was a record-breaking year for the technology. MCS says batteries were the third most popular technology type to be installed in homes by its certified contractor base.
Of the 4,700 certified batteries registered with MCS, 4,400 were installed in 2023, it adds.
With the energy price cap on average domestic energy bills now sitting below £2,000 per year and installation costs having increased with inflation, it is unclear whether the high levels of solar PV installations in 2023 will be maintained this year.
Solar Energy UK’s chief communications officer Gareth Simkins says:
“Speculation is always a dangerous game. I think it is reasonable for current deployment rates – around 15,000 a month – to continue. This will not just be retrofits of course – we expect more newbuild homes to carry solar, too.”
Monthly solar installations hit highs
Last year saw monthly installations of rooftop solar PV start to hit the levels seen in 2015, when government subsidies were still available, as shown by the red bars in the figure below.
March 2023 saw 20,073 registered solar PV installations, putting it in the top 10 months seen in the UK. Both 11th and 12th places were claimed by months in 2023 too, with June seeing 18,049 installations and May seeing 17,787 installations.
The rest of the top 10 installation months are dominated by 2011, 2012 and 2015. This was driven largely by subsidy deadlines, with a rush seen ahead of cuts leading to record-high installation periods.
In 2012, the FiT subsidy for solar was cut in half, reducing from 43.3p per kilowatt hour (kWh) to just 21p per kWh. This cut returns from solar electricity from around 7% to 4%, according to the Guardian.
In doing so it almost doubled the payback period for households, with some seeing their £10,000-12,000 solar panels only being in credit after 18 years rather than 10, the Guardian reported at the time.
This change followed then-climate change minister Greg Barker launching a consultation into the subsidies in an effort to avoid the industry falling victim to “boom and bust“.
Following the change, installations fell by nearly 90%, according to Department of Energy and Climate Change figures reported in the Guardian.
Installations dropped from 26,941 in March 2012 to 5,522 in April 2012, according to MCS figures, although there was a further surge later that year.
Throughout 2013, installations remained relatively subdued, growing through 2014 before peaking again in 2015. Installations hit 25,614 in December 2015, but this came ahead of further FiT reduction in February 2016, which sent “shockwaves” through the sector and saw installations drop dramatically
The FiT came to an end in 2019, with the solar export guarantee brought in 2020, which sets a minimum price for electricity exported to the grid.
Following the resulting lull in installations, domestic solar PV has once again been growing. The difference this time is that there is no underlying subsidy driving growth, with rising energy bills and longer-term falls in technology costs making the technology increasingly appealing.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Solar Energy UK’s Simkins says:
“Oddly enough, it shows the success of FiTs in creating a market for solar in the first place, with the industry now standing entirely on its own two feet without government support.”
Installation costs rise
The inflationary impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis led to an increase in solar technology costs in 2023.
Consequently, installation costs have risen over recent years, according to MCS. Across every month in 2023, average installation costs sat above £10,000 – the only time in more than a decade that they have reached that level, as shown in the figure below.
This has been impacted by the scale of the installations to a certain extent, with the installation cost per kilowatt (kW) seeing a more limited increase. Across 2022, the average cost of installing solar per kW was £1,804 and in 2023 this rose to £2,020.
Moreover, in some months, solar was actually cheaper per kilowatt (kW) in 2023 than in 2022, MCS data shows.
It is also worth noting that the increase in the cost of solar installations has not been as dramatic as the increase in energy bills over the past couple of years.
The energy crisis drove up domestic energy bills from late 2021, as supply chain squeezes driven in part by the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices to record highs.
As a result, the default tariff price cap for consumers jumped from £1,277 per year in the six months to March 2022, to £1,971 over that summer, and then to £3,549 over the winter of 2022.
It then surged again to £4,279 over the first quarter of 2023, before it began to fall (the energy price guarantee came into force in October 2022, superseding the rate of the price cap, and limiting domestic energy bills to £2,500 initially).
The surge in domestic energy prices highlighted the exposure of the British energy system to fluctuations in international gas markets. In doing so, it is likely it helped drive uptake of domestic solar – as shown in the figure below – as households looked to cushion themselves from potential future surges.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, solar wholesaler Midsummer’s commercial director Jamie Vaux says installation costs are now coming down.
The high installation costs and long installation lead times in 2022, were driven by demand exceeding supply, he says. With new installers entering the market and mortgage rates and inflation hitting consumer spending, this has started to ease, he adds.
Average installation prices per kW peaked at £2,111 in April 2023, before slowly falling throughout the year.
Vaux explains:
“Essentially, those who had the funds available when the energy crisis hit have already had their installations, and while many still want solar, the rate stopped climbing so steeply and the curve flattened at the same time as more installers were there to meet the demand. It has become more competitive at the installation level, and installation costs have (gradually) fallen as a result.”
There is also currently a glut of solar modules, which could help prices continue to fall and stimulate further update of solar, according to Vaux.
There is currently “a year’s worth of modules already sitting in EU warehouses, and devaluing daily”, Vaux adds, meaning top-tier modules can be bought for a fraction of prices seen in 2022.
Solar Scotland
The area with the overall highest share of households with solar PV installations since the start of MCS data in 2009 is Stirling in Scotland, where 16.7% of households have solar PV (6,994 households).
Perhaps surprisingly, given their poorer insolation rates relative to other parts of the UK, Scottish local authorities appear four times in the top 10, as shown in the figure below.
Scotland’s housing policy means it is mandatory for solar to be fitted on all new build properties, helping to boost installation rates.
In terms of installations completed during 2023, the Isle of Anglesey came out on top, with 1,083 systems added, amounting to 3.5% of households.
The top 10 for last year is dominated by Welsh and Scottish local authorities, with just one English local authority making it into the list – South Cambridgeshire in ninth place.
There are five Scottish local authorities (Dumfries and Galloway, East Lothian, Perth, Moray and Kinross and Midlothian) and four Welsh local authorities (Isle of Anglesey, Ceredigion, Powys and Pembrokeshire).
The 10 local authority areas with the lowest percentage of solar PV installations since 2009 are all in London, with Kensington and Chelsea coming out on top with just 0.4% (or 297) of households having registered solar PV installed, according to MCS.
It is worth noting that due to the density of the households in London and other major cities, they are over-represented in the lowest percentage list for solar installations.
For example, Wandsworth – which comes out as having the tenth lowest rate of just 1.1% of households having solar PV – only has 1,496 installations.
Meanwhile, Torridge in Devon – which has the eighth highest rate of installations in the UK at 12.8% – has 3,899 solar PV installations. While this is more than double the number is Wandsworth, the much larger difference in percentage terms highlights the impact of population size in each local authority area.
The same is broadly true of 2023. While the area last year with the lowest installation rate was Derry City and Strabane, with just 73 installations (0.1% of households), the bottom ten is still dominated by London boroughs, which made up eight of the list.
Detached properties are the most common when it comes to solar PV installations, with 50,8193 of the MCS registered solar PV installations since 2009 (35.2%) having been fitted on detached properties, versus 447,415 on semi-detached, 288,886 on terraced, 187,131 on flats and apartments and 10,100 on other properties.
This means detached properties – which tend to be larger, with more roof area – are over-represented in terms of their share of solar installations, as shown in the figure below.
The post Analysis: Surge in heat pumps and solar drives record for UK homes in 2023 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Surge in heat pumps and solar drives record for UK homes in 2023
For the first time in the UK, more new electric vehicles (EVs) have been sold over a 12-month period than petrol cars, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
The news comes amid a battle over the future of the UK’s “zero-emissions vehicle” (ZEV) mandate, which the car industry and some unions are pushing to water down.
The mandate sets a rising target for the share of new car sales that must be “zero-emissions vehicles” (ZEVs) each year – primarily “pure” or “battery” EVs that only run on electricity.
The car industry argues that demand for these cars is too low to meet the requirements of the ZEV mandate, despite the fact that the industry has “over-complied” to date.
Carbon Brief’s analysis of the latest data on new UK car sales, shown in the figure below, illustrates that demand for EVs has, in fact, grown consistently – and it has now overtaken demand for petrol cars for the first time.
In the 12 months to May 2026, UK consumers bought 516,490 new BEVs, against only 504,010 new petrol cars.
Note that the analysis is based on figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). Figures published by the UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) are based on a slightly different categorisation for hybrid cars.
All hybrids run entirely on petrol or diesel fuel, while also carrying a small battery and an electric motor. ACEA counts these cars separately to petrol and diesel models.
In contrast, the SMMT counts what it calls “mild” hybrids as petrol cars, while listing “full” hybrids – such as Toyota’s Prius – in a separate category.
The ACEA data shows that hybrids are the most popular type of car in the UK, as illustrated in the figure below, but also shows that their sales are relatively stagnant.
Some 56,321 hybrids were sold in May 2026, the most recent month with data from ACEA. This is an increase of 1,181 year-on-year, or just 2%.
In contrast, EV sales grew 34% to reach 43,931, while petrol cars were down 14% to 35,068.
Plug-in hybrids, which can be run on electricity from the grid or from a petrol engine, are also seeing relatively rapid sales growth, up 24% year-on-year in May 2026 to 22,167.
(In the UK, numberplates for “pure” EVs that only run on electricity are marked out by a distinctive green stripe on the left-hand side. These stripes are not used for any type of hybrid.)
The new analysis for the UK follows a similar milestone for the EU, with more BEVs having been sold in the month of December 2025 than petrol cars.
The UK first saw more sales of BEVs than petrol cars in a single month in December 2022, but this pattern has only been repeated on a consistent basis over the past year.
Globally, EV sales grew by 20% in 2025 and accounted for one in every four new cars sold, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The agency said that global EV sales were set to grow by another 15% in 2026.
The post Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time
This could be a big year for the circular economy.
In autumn, the European Commission is due to adopt the Circular Economy Act (CEA), aimed at supporting the EU in its stated aim to become a world leader in circularity by 2030.
There is a clear environmental imperative behind the legislation, but also a geopolitical one. Europe imports the vast majority of all its critical raw materials; for example, 100% of its heavy rare earth metals come from China and 71% of its platinum from South Africa.
The bloc is seeking to reduce its dependency on imports of key commodities, energy and materials, and as a result achieve greater self-sufficiency. Circular products are one route to achieving that.
Circular ambitions
Whether the EU’s aim is achievable, or not, brings into sharp relief the current state of the circular economy. According to the European Environment Agency, in 2024, secondary recovered materials made up 12% of total material use across Europe. This was only 1.5% higher than in 2010.
But, by some estimates, the global circular economy is already worth around $700 billion and could reach several trillion within the next decade. This rate of growth would take considerable support from national governments, starting with something akin to the CEA, which aims to double the EU’s circularity rate to 24% and create a single market for secondary raw materials. The hope is that this will stoke demand from businesses to adopt more circular practices.
Carsten Wachholz, business-policy engagement lead at the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, described the forthcoming act as “a critical opportunity to turn circular solutions from a niche proposition into a mainstream market choice,” adding that by harmonising rules across the single market the EU can allow the circular economy to “scale across borders”.
From there the argument runs that rules created in Europe will be copied in other markets, shaping global supply chains and standards elsewhere. “The EU can work towards shared international ambition, reducing protectionism risks, and unlocking large-scale investment globally,” he added.
Making two ends meet
Raising awareness of what is meant by circularity, and being able to identify and treat circular products correctly, is one of the challenges the sector faces.
The global economy has been built on a simple linear structure where we source a material, create something out of it, sell it on and then throw it away. This process, sometimes called ‘take, make, use, dispose’ is the opposite of the principles of circularity.
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation defines the circular economy as a system where “materials never become waste”. In such a system, products and materials are “kept in circulation through processes like maintenance, reuse, refurbishment, remanufacture, recycling and composting”.
Circularity is about the whole life cycle of a product, seeing how it can be used for longer, upgrading when possible, and then potentially using that product to create something else afterwards. The intention with circularity is to increase the use of non-virgin materials, reducing the need to extract more from the ground.
Signify: “We believe resilience is becoming more important to businesses right now”
Thomas Marinelli, head of sustainable innovation and design at Signify, a global lighting company, said: “I once explained it to a child with Lego. You put Lego blocks together and you can pull them apart again and make something new.”
Circular practices also lead to more products – phones, washing machines, lighting – being leased instead of created from scratch. These services cut the need for large upfront investments and reduce environmental impacts.
How business is responding
The next step is to convince businesses it is the right thing to do, from a financial, environmental and product perspective.
“Using products for longer and using less material and energy is a topic of interest in our markets,” added Marinelli, while at the same time acknowledging that part of the challenge is “awareness creation”.
“We need to prove that products made from non-virgin, or bio-circular materials are at least as good. And that a business’s environmental footprint is much lower when you use non-virgin materials,” he said.
Part of the awareness-raising piece is showing that older products can be repaired, refurbished and remanufactured, depending on their condition. Signify takes lighting systems that are up to 10 years old, and makes them new again, saving on material waste and cutting emissions, often at a lower cost than buying a new product.
A growing number of companies are already sold on the benefits of going circular. A recent survey from the World Economic Forum found that out of 491 manufacturing executives, 79% said circularity is crucial to their business, and 95% said it will be important within three years.
Carrefour, the French retail giant, has adopted circular practices in some of its stores as a way of driving down energy costs and cutting carbon emissions. In one of its Belgian stores, the company installed 3D-printed light fixtures made from recycled water bottles. Lighting systems were made from recycled materials that can be fully dismantled and used to make new ones after they reach the end of their natural life.
A separate example comes from Denmark where the area of Tuborg Havn in Copenhagen chose to upgrade its historic street lamps with efficient LEDs instead of replacing them. More than 80 light fixtures were cleaned, upgraded and reinstalled as part of the new initiative, and the new lights will be 3.5 times more efficient than the old ones. The initiative has allowed the harbour to retain its historic character while reducing energy consumption and modernising the area.
Overcoming barriers
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation recently coordinated an open letter to the European Commission – signed by 12 global brands including The LEGO Group, H&M and Philips – calling for lawmakers to support new reforms that address common barriers facing circular products.
These include simplifying EU-wide rules, creating tax incentives and stronger financial support for the burgeoning sector. Current VAT rules, for example, can mean secondhand goods are repeatedly taxed across their lifetime, something the charity is seeking to change.
“Capital is not lacking,” said Wachholz, “but the risk profile of circular economy projects keeps too many ventures stuck at pilot scale rather than reaching industrial deployment.”
The letter calls for the creation of a secondary materials platform to improve price transparency, digital product passports to track material flows, and the creation of new industrial hubs to provide the infrastructure and technology the sector needs in order to scale up.
Those measures, coupled with fossil energy price spikes, will help circular products compete on cost with the extractive economy, experts say. “Using recycled materials or non-virgin alternatives can become competitive in the long run,” said Marinelli, pointing to the volatility in the price of raw materials. “If you look at plastics, when oil is a problem, the price of plastics goes up. But recycled plastic stays at the same level.”
“And it’s not only about materials but production as well. When volumes of recycled materials go up, then the price remains stable or goes down,” he added.
Opportune moment
The current geopolitical environment could serve to support growth in the circular economy. Supply chain constraints caused by the war in Iran have caused commodity prices to skyrocket. This has led many companies – and countries – to seek ways to protect themselves against future shocks.
In that context, new circular policies and products could receive a favourable hearing from businesses looking to build resilience, cut costs and protect nature. A future where circularity is fully embedded across society will need time and support to grow, but may well be on its way.
Adam Wentworth is a freelance journalist based in Brighton, UK
The post Can the circular economy win over big business? appeared first on Climate Home News.
A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific advocates for a Pasifika-led transition toward a future free from coal, oil, and gas. It emphasises that while Pacific island nations contribute minimally to global emissions, they face existential threats from rising sea levels and coral reef destruction.
Leadership from the frontlines
Three decades ago, the world united to confront the greatest challenge of our age: climate change and transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The Pacific has been there at every step, playing a central role in shaping the global climate regime. We have defended science, been a voice for ambition and justice, and delivered successive breakthroughs — from securing the 1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement to taking the world’s biggest problem to the world’s highest court. Today, we are spearheading efforts — both inside and outside the formal process of UN climate negotiations — towards a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
Timeline
| 1980s | Pacific island countries first warn of the threats to physical and cultural survival from climate change. |
| 1990 | Together with island nations of the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean, the Pacific forms the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). |
| 1991 | Vanuatu makes the first proposal for what we now call loss and damage finance. |
| 1994 | Nauru puts forward the first draft of what became the Kyoto Protocol. |
| 2009 | Pacific island countries press for a binding agreement that would limit warming to 1.5°C, with Tuvalu and AOSIS offering text for a new legal protocol. |
| 2015 | The Pacific plays a pivotal role in securing the Paris Agreement — including the all-important goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and a stand-alone article on addressing loss and damage from climate change. |
| 2022 | Vanuatu is the first country in the world to support a Fossil Fuel Treaty, followed shortly by Tuvalu. |
| 2023 | Pacific island countries help secure the first ever reference to fossil fuels in a UN climate decision, with COP28 calling on countries to “transition away from fossil fuels”. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage becomes operational. |
| 2024 | Following a request by Pacific and Caribbean island countries, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea clarified states’ obligations to protect the world’s oceans from the impacts of climate change. |
| 2025 | Following a campaign led by Pacific island students, a historic ruling from the International Court of Justice affirms that countries are legally obliged to limit warming to 1.5°C, and that continuing down the path of fossil fuels may be an internationally wrongful act. |
| 2026 | Pacific Ministers and civil society gather in Vanuatu to set the ongoing course of Pacific leadership towards a fossil fuel free future. The Tassiriki Call reaffirms the vision of a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific and agrees to establish an Inter-Governmental Taskforce. |
1.5°C and the transition away from fossil fuels
By the 2000s, it was clear that warming beyond 1.5°C posed a profound threat to communities in the Pacific and worldwide.
Rising seas, destructive storms, extreme heat, shifting rainfall patterns, ocean acidification… no level of warming is ‘safe’. Every fraction of a degree increases the risks to our food and water supply, our physical and mental wellbeing, our cultures, and our sovereignty.
Only when you have seen sacred land swallowed by the rising ocean and the graves of your ancestors washed out to sea, cared for elders suffering through extreme heat, watched the familiar rhythm of the seasons change before your eyes, or lied awake at night worried whether your children will still have a nation to call home, do you truly understand what is at stake. For some people and communities, 1.5°C is a point of no return.
In Paris, we held the line, and refused to negotiate away our futures. The result — a universal agreement to strive to limit warming to 1.5°C — became a lifeline for Pacific communities, and a gift to the entire world.
In the decade since Paris, the case for limiting warming to 1.5°C has only grown stronger. Beyond 1.5°C, the risks grow from highly destructive to truly existential. How? The impacts of climate change do not merely increase in a linear fashion as the global temperature climbs. At a certain point we start to trigger far more severe and abrupt changes — such as the destabilisation of polar ice sheets, committing the world to much faster sea level rise, or the mass death of critical ecosystems we depend on for our sustenance.
Cross these ‘tipping points’ and we will set in motion changes at a pace to which it may be impossible to adapt, and which will continue to play out for millenia. We will have left behind the relatively stable climate of the last 11,000 years, in which today’s modern civilisations evolved, and which is the only Earth they have known. We will have tipped our Earth into a far more chaotic state, and our survival as a species will be by no means assured.
“The salt spray of the Pacific Ocean is in my blood; I grew up watching the tides shape the shores of the islands of Tuvalu. But now, those tides are rising relentlessly, eroding lands, swallowing homes, decimating livelihoods and washing away the futures of communities.
— Dr Maina Talia, Minister for Home Affairs, Climate Change and Environment, Tuvalu
We now know that even at today’s level of global warming, of just below 1.5°C, we may have crossed tipping points for the tropical coral reefs upon which millions of people in the Pacific and worldwide depend for their food and livelihoods, and for some of the world’s major ice sheets. At warming of beyond 1.5°C, crossing these and many other tipping points becomes not merely possible but a greater and greater certainty.
Let us make this urgent reality even clearer by speaking more about the ocean — the big blue beating heart of our planet. Like the blood in our veins, ocean currents distribute nutrients, oxygen and heat around the planet. Without this planetary pulse, life simply would not exist. As the world warms, these ocean currents are slowing. The planet’s pulse is becoming fainter. Ignore these planetary health warnings, and push our ocean currents beyond a tipping point, and that pulse may stop — unable to be resuscitated — with consequences for all life connected to the ocean, including our own. The ocean that raised us is now carrying a stark warning.
We are already deep in the danger zone, and it is going to take all of us pulling in the same canoe to get back to safer shores.
Course correction
Our world is changing rapidly. Around the globe, solar panels now adorn millions of roofs and windfarms dot the landscape. Growth in renewable energy has outstripped all projections.
But here’s the rub: despite remarkable progress with renewable energy, we have seen no slowdown in the burning of coal, oil and gas. Globally, our hunger for energy has been growing fast, and with it our consumption of fossil fuels, even as renewable energy has grown alongside. We are on track to be producing double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The lesson? We need, as a global community, to be far more proactive about transitioning away from fossil fuels. Merely betting on growing renewable energy is not going to save us. It is like trying to mop up a flooded floor while leaving the tap running — unless we turn down fossil fuel production, the flood only rises. In the decade since Paris, and in the three years since the world agreed explicitly to transition away from fossil fuels, consumption has reached dangerous new highs, bringing us to the brink of all-out climate catastrophe.
We need roadmaps that help us remove the barriers to action, overcome technical obstacles, and help us finally break away from fossil fuels.
But we must also ask ourselves what we truly value. Today, so much growth in energy demand is coming not from meeting our basic needs, but from material excesses and overconsumption of energy among wealthy nations and corporations, or powering artificial intelligence and technologies that only separate us further from each other and the land and oceans that sustain us. Is this really the world we want?
The Pacific has much to remind the world about what truly matters — family, connection, reciprocity, and living in harmony with our shared home.
The course ahead
The Paris Agreement, its underlying Convention, and the ongoing process of negotiations on its implementation, provide legitimacy, universality and accountability. They offer the only forums where every country has a seat at the table. They provide the legally binding framework for our common but differentiated responsibilities, and the obligation of advanced economies, whose wealth was built off the back of fossil fuels, to support the majority world in transitioning to renewable energy, adapting to the impacts of climate change, and addressing loss and damage from climate change.
But we now know that this is not enough. The greatest strength of this all-in process is also its weakness. The process of consensus decision-making provides legitimacy and durability, but also puts a brake on ambition. At best, it offers the lowest common denominator. At worst, it allows the process to be held hostage by one or more regressive forces.
Alongside the formal process of UN climate negotiations, we must continue to grow and strengthen the coalition of committed nations already getting on with the work of building a vibrant future beyond fossil fuels. We must carry forward the momentum generated by the landmark conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, as we voyage towards the second conference in Tuvalu next year. We will build a fossil fuel free Pacific, shaped by Pacific values. We will continue to be a voice of science, ambition and conscience, and we will seek justice and accountability through the full implementation of the historic ruling from the International Court of Justice.
Recommendations
1.5°C as our guiding star
The transition away from fossil fuels must be anchored to the fundamental scientific, moral and legal imperative of limiting warming to 1.5°C. This means timelines, targets and trajectories that minimise the duration and extent of any overshoot, and return the long-term average temperature rise to 1.5°C as soon as possible.
Strengthening global cooperation
The COP31 Presidency of Negotiations, to be held by Australia, must be a meaningful partnership with the Pacific. This means elevating the voices of our leaders, backing Pacific-led solutions, and maximising the opportunity of the Pacific pre-COP to ensure the 1.5°C imperative and the transition away from fossil fuels are central to the agenda at COP31 in Antalya.
COP31 must operationalise and accelerate the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, building on the momentum from COP30 and the Santa Marta conference.
Alongside and complementary to the UN climate negotiations, willing countries should work to accelerate implementation through parallel initiatives such as the Brazilian COP30 Presidency-led roadmap, the follow-up to the Santa Marta conference, bilateral and regional collaborations, and implementation of the advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice.
National roadmaps that promote justice
All governments should develop national roadmaps for a just transition away from fossil fuels, aligned with their fair share of the global action needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, and identify needs for international support.
National roadmaps should include an immediate commitment to no new fossil fuel expansion, rule out false solutions, set timelines to phase out production and consumption — with developed countries moving fastest — and maximising the opportunities for increasing energy sovereignty, access and security.
From extraction to regeneration
The transition away from fossil fuels must also aim to reduce future energy use and demand for transition minerals. This means focussing on energy efficiency, a return to regenerative approaches, and reorienting our energy, transport, food systems and built environments away from material excesses and over-consumption, aligning instead with the values, wellbeing and long-term interests of our communities.
The transition must not lead to new industries that harm our environment and communities, and that repeat and compound the injustices of past extractive models. In particular, governments should put a permanent ban on deep sea mining.
Funding
Developed countries must provide adequate and accessible finance for transitioning away from fossil fuels, adapting to the impacts of climate change, and addressing loss and damage. This should include an increase in grants and direct budget support, be accompanied by debt relief, and be enabled through taxing polluters and ending fossil fuel subsidies.
Authored by the Pacific team at Greenpeace Australia Pacific. Words by Simon Bradshaw, Shiva Gounden, Moemoana Schwenke. Edited by Kate O’Callaghan.
Photos curated by Olivia Louella.
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