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US Offshore Wind Offensive & Industry Impact

Allen and Joel discuss the aggressive actions by the Trump administration against offshore wind projects. They also consider the broader implications for the wind industry, exploring onshore impacts, geopolitical maneuvers, and strategies for companies to adapt and prepare for future challenges. Register for the next SkySpecs webinar!

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

You are listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by build turbines.com. Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now here’s your hosts, Allen Hall, Joel Saxum, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes.

Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with Joel Saxum, who’s up in Wisconsin.

Joel, you’ve had some really cold weather up there the last couple of days. It’s still September. Doesn’t really make sense, Alan. I dunno. It’s, it’s

Joel Saxum: September, well, beginning of September and this morning when I let the dog out at 5:20 AM whatever time she decided to wake me up, it was 36 degrees here.

That’s way too cold. Um, I knew, I, I, I went up here to escape a little bit of heat from in Texas, but I did not look to Frost advisories and like sweatshirts and vests and boots. Um, but that’s what’s happening. Yeah. Even, uh. Even a [00:01:00] few red leaves floating around on the lawn up here. So, uh, yeah, winter or fall is coming.

That means, you know what fall coming means is blade season for repairs in the northern hemispheres slowing down or shutting down shortly. So we’re gonna get to hear what happened. Maybe a postmortem, hopefully on the, the blade repair season in North America.

Allen Hall: Yeah, it’s been busy from what I could tell.

And plus there’s a lot of construction going on. New insights. There’s, uh, all kinds of turbines being planted right now. We’re gonna be working through the end of the year easily, if the weather will support it. Very active time at the moment. And speaking of active time, this is our second take of this podcast, uh, just because so much has happened since we recorded last evening.

Uh, Joel and I thought we ought to take another try or attempt at this. Try to give you the, the most updated information. Not to say it’s not gonna change over the next couple of hours after we finish this podcast, but, uh, the Trump administration [00:02:00] has launched its most aggressive attack on America’s offshore wind industry.

Uh, the federal government is now working to withdraw permits for New England Wind one and two off the coast of Massachusetts. These projects are valued at roughly $14.6 billion by Bloomberg, NEF, and we power more than 900,000 homes. Uh, but the, the issue really is why are they being shut down? Nobody really knows.

Uh, and there’s a lot of conjecture about it. And Joel, you and I were just talking before we recorded here. It may have something to do with Denmark.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, I think you wanna believe that. Smoother minds will prevail that, uh, logic and pragmatism is a part of government. But what it really seems is there’s, there’s favoritism and there’s egos and there’s feelings driving some of these, these decisions.

Right? Today we just heard or [00:03:00] just read that the, the Danish government is in California signing a policy agreement for collaboration with Gavin Newsom and the, the administration out there. We’ve, and, and this is like on, this is on top of, uh, Trump’s rhetoric around, or the Trump administration’s rhetoric around we would like Greenland.

And this day, Danish fight and all these different things happen in between the two organizations or the two countries there. So it’s just kind of like posturing and, and we’re back and forth and Sted is the big Danish company, right? So now Sted is feeling a little bit of. Pain from the Trump administration.

So the people who are close to Orid, IE, the Danish government come back and poke the bear on the side a little bit more. Um, so it just seems like there’s a lot of, a lot of egos and things going on, and, and that’s why it’s hard to make sense out of, right? So like, why is this happening? There’s no real reasons that we’re being told as the general public, right?

Like there’s this [00:04:00] veiled kind of, oh, there might be a national security thing here. Why we would cancel these projects. But at the end of the day, like this is kind, it’s unprecedented. I mean, there’s billions and billions of dollars sunk into these projects. And what’s the recourse, like if they get canceled?

That or Ted and or their partners are just. Out. Like, how can you cancel a project in an offshore, uh, capacity that’s 80% complete? Doesn’t make sense,

Allen Hall: right? So Revolution wind was shut down a, a week or two ago at this point, and uh, that happened immediately after Denmark, the prime Minister of Denmark and the delegation from Denmark met with Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, and then.

Boom. Revolution wind is shut down. And now New England Wind one and two, which is an avan grid project, are in the same boat. So basically, uh, it triggered a series of events, or at least it appears that way at the moment. It appears to have triggered a number of events. And this also includes, uh, [00:05:00] withdrawing about $679 million in federal funding from.

12 infrastructure projects that are supporting offshore wind development. The single largest loss is Humboldt Bay, offshore wind in Northern California. Again, another Gavin Newsom thing, which is gonna lose $427 million in federal support, and in Norfolk, Virginia, the Fairwinds landing facility. Uh, supporting Dominion’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project lost, uh, $39 million.

Uh, so now the administration has threatened or blocked about eight gigawatts of offshore wind capacity, which is a tremendous number of homes that we would’ve powered. This is starting to get to a little bit, uh. Unsettling. So the, the news out of the New York Times last night as we’re recording this, said I think six administration departments have been asked to go find ways [00:06:00] to threaten or stop offshore wind That’s been headed up by President Trump’s chief of staff.

So it’s all the way to the top, Joel. It just feels like this is personal for some reason, and I don’t know how it got to this level. But it is becoming a little more irrational, uh, than it was maybe even six weeks ago. And I know Phil was really upset about it six weeks ago. And I genuinely agree. Like some of the comments coming outta the administration are on.

I, I would, I would say they were bonkers, maybe is the right term, just being polite, but unfounded maybe is a really good term. Uh, and, and now it’s like really escalated.

Joel Saxum: I think that the general public, and so there’s a way, a couple ways to look at it. In my mind, I’m looking, is the hydrocarbon lobby this strong?

Right? I know they’re strong, right? I’m in X oil and gas guy. I lived in Houston, energy, capital world, all these things and was a part of that, [00:07:00] uh, infrastructure for a long time. So I know the things that they can get done if they want to get done. Are they strong enough to turn the tides of an entire, basically like.

Western Hemisphere’s energy production. ’cause that’s what it’s looking like, right? Like the changes that they’re so extreme here have waterfall and cascading effects to all of the other economies around us. You’re seeing investment possibly pouring into Canada offshore wind there. So that’s changing their economy.

Changing our economy. Um, you’ll, you’ll see these things that. They’re not just going to affect here in the us they’re that these moves will affect globally. And you’ve, you’ve seen it, um, being pushed over to like these trade groups, going to from the us, going to the uk, going to Europe, you know, stop building wind, stop building wind.

You need LNG. So you can hear this undertone of hydrocarbon industry, LNG, oil and gas drill, baby drill, getting pushed. Is that. Is that lobby so strong that they’ve changed this? I don’t know if that’s the case. I know that’s part of [00:08:00] it, but it does feel like it’s this ego thing, right? Because you have this engagement of every, every, like you said, all of these different departments within the federal government, they’re being told, do this, do this, do this.

And again, I I want to say this to the, the general public. If you don’t know these things, like, so transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, he’s the head of basically the federal DOT. The federal DOT is in charge of ports, so whenever you would go onto a port facility, you need what’s called a TWIC card transportation Worker identification card, and that’s a background check on you to make sure that you’re okay with the national interests to enter these facilities.

Those ports are exactly where we will be operating offshore wind out of. They’re the same places where we bring in goods and services from other countries and do trade deals and all these different things. It’s the working part of our um, economy. For the maritime side of it, right? So because the federal government has control of these, they can do what they want at these port facilities, regardless of [00:09:00] state wants.

So that’s where you see. You have already heard in the news President Trump and Gavin Newsom, man, not the best of friends, right? So it’s California and and federal thing not going so well. So what is, what, what does the administration do then? Direct the transportation secretary to go pull funding from the ports in California.

That will directly affect the local economies, the jobs that offshore wind build out and up. Some of these projects that are already ongoing, they’ve already done things like there’s already, there’s already shovels moving dirt on some of those sites. So. You see this power that they have and that, that they’re moving and grooving to, to be able to basically put a stranglehold on offshore wind in the United States.

It’s, it is I the term you used Alan Unnerving. I know a couple months ago when some of this stuff started to roll out, we were like, ah, nothing’s really gonna happen. You know, stay the course. Everything’s cool, but it’s starting to get. Some big time things happening, right? There’s gonna be some lawsuits flying around here.[00:10:00]

Allen Hall: Well, yeah. And today, lawsuits really started flying. We figured at some 0.1 of the developers was gonna file a lawsuit or the states were going to file a lawsuit. And all of the above has just happened. So Rhode Island in Connecticut, uh, and project. Developer Orid for and Sky borne renewables are going to challenge the Trump administration’s halt of the Revolution Wind Project.

Now there’s a lot going on behind the scenes, so you’re just hearing dribs and drabs at this point. But basically the, the lawsuit says there’s process violations. Now those sound arcane, like, oh, it’s a process violation. No big deal. Well, it is a big deal because there’s so much money behind it, and it affects so many, so many jobs.

There’s thousands of jobs, and in this particular case, uh, with Revolution Wind and with Empire Wind, the rationale for why they shut those projects off was not [00:11:00] defined. And, and. The press went to go find the exact reason, uh, that a Freedom of Information Act and got the document, but everything was redacted on the Empire Wind side, so they couldn’t even tell.

And my guess is that Orid is still waiting to hear the real issue. Like is there a, a, a legal issue that was a rationale for BOEM to shut off Revolution wind? And I think the answer is probably no. It’s more like it’s a national interest. Problem. We have defense problems with these wind turbines being in the water.

That is usually not enough to trigger a stoppage. So unless somebody pushes back, the Trump administration can continue to do this. I, my guess is that the, the States knowing that, and a lot of those people have worked in Washington, DC and they all have. Good attorneys, particularly up in the northeast’s.

A lot of attorneys in the Northeast are easily gonna [00:12:00] file, uh, some sort of lawsuit, getting the administration to stop. Now, Joel, I think the question is, what happens next? Will the administration stop and try to negotiate some deal, or will it just get more combative? We’re both, sorry. Just start throwing rocks at each other.

You’ve,

Joel Saxum: you’ve pinpointed the two things, right? And. One problem I see there is if a deal isn’t struck, this is Trump 1 0 1, the art of the deal, right? This is what he is been doing to other countries, you know, come in strong arm and then go, oh, you don’t like that. Uh, let’s negotiate something. Maybe we get something that we want.

You’re like, come in with a high price, even though you know you want this one and you can settle for that. That’s probably what’s going to happen. Now, if, and, and that’s in my opinion, right? But if that doesn’t, the trouble here is that we’re now tied up in a legal process. Legal processes can drag and drag and drag and drag forever, right?

So you drag this out long enough where the pain gets to be so heavy [00:13:00]that eventually people have to cut their losses and or, you know, eat, eat some of the costs here or something has to happen and in a negative way. The trouble with that is either, either of these outcomes, to be honest with you, what we have done is made investing in the United States risky.

By having a situation where you can’t, as an outside investor, you can’t count on things, right? It would just be like if you were, if you were gonna buy a new car and all of a sudden the, you’ve got, you were basically taking ownership of the car and then they changed the terms of the loan or told you you couldn’t drive it, you know, only but Tuesday nights or something of that sort like this, I, I don’t want that anymore.

You know, I’m not gonna invest in that. Um, so. There isn’t a really, I guess, in my opinion, what’s happening here. I’m hoping for the best. Right? But the what looks like the writing on the wall is like, it’s just not a good outcome. Um, for offshore wind in the United States,

Allen Hall: I think the, [00:14:00] the banter that’s going back and forth is the Keystone XL Pipeline was shut down and just outta the blue l and g porch roll shut down, like immediately, boom, there’s an order.

Everything stops. So now it’s retribution. It’s it’s payback time. We’re going to flex the other way and watch what we can do with our pen and our phone. Like, okay. Both sides need to stop this nonsense because 330 million Americans are caught in the middle and cutting electricity. Off in some sense. I mean, reducing the supply of electricity, which is what is about to happen, uh, is gonna be a huge problem.

And I, I don’t know if anybody is paying attention to the political ramifications to this every, not that I trust analysts, honestly, I do a lot of the homework myself, but analysts are predicting that electricity prices are going to bump up and not in small amounts. It’ll be very noticeable. It’s one thing about [00:15:00]Americans.

They know what the price of gas is, they know what the price of electricity is, uh, and they know the price of eggs and milking, right? Those are bread or the, or the key consumer items. If any of those start to fluctuate on any. Grand scale more than a couple percentage points, there’s hell to pay as a politician.

And I’m just curious as to what Congress is thinking right now. Like, how long is this gonna go on before there’s retribution, payback from my constituents? Do I lose my seat? Maybe they’re willing to do that, but I, it doesn’t seem like anybody’s, uh, upset about it, right. Yet.

Joel Saxum: You’ve already seen posturing on that exact topic, though you’ve already seen.

Ke senior level, uh, people in the administration say, oh, prices are gonna go up and we’re gonna get blamed for it even though it was the last administration’s fault. That makes no, that makes you see that. Like that’s what’s happening right now. But that doesn’t make sense. Because when you look at, it’s this, these are simple, [00:16:00] simple economics.

This is economics 1 0 1, supply and demand, right? You’re cutting. Supply and demand is increasing. We know this one to 3%. I think last year the number was 2.5%, which was like a, which is a record since. Decades. Right. And that’s only gonna get more and more extreme as we start to build, uh, more of these AI data centers things that we as the consumers of the electricity are also the consumers of the AI data centers we’re driving that demand ourselves.

So like basically with we’re standing and, and digging dirt and then throwing it on our own sheet. Is what’s happening. And there is a mechanism to lift us out of this more generation on the grid, and that’s being canceled at the same time that we’re also shutting down coal plants and stuff. So we’re, we’re, we’re trying to decarbonize, we’re making moves away from this, but there’s just this, this simple equations, this is not PhD level stuff.

I can [00:17:00] do this in a bar napkin for you. Like we’re not, we’re, we’re not in a good place as far as energy generation goes. Um, and. The demand is so high that I think when we were talking about Phil last, and I just completely agree with him, uh, you’re gonna start to see more behind the grid projects popping up because the people with the deep pockets need this generation, need power generation, and they’re not gonna be stopped by some organization that has, you know, FERC or a NERC or someone like that, that they have to answer to.

They want, if the business case makes sense to power these data centers. They’re gonna make power and they’re gonna make it happen. They’re just not gonna deal with the, the garbage going on. Politically. That’s, that’s my take. Now, you can’t do that in offshore wind, because that’s your federal government waters.

It’d be the same thing as if you were. Trying to do that on BLM, federal lands and the on onshore, you’re not gonna be able to do that, but if you can do it on private land, that’s gonna happen.

Allen Hall: Well, we come back from the break. I wanna talk about the onshore piece of this, because [00:18:00] I think the next phase of the Trump administration’s movements again to.

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Joel, last night we were talking about the impacts of the Trump administration’s move against offshore wind, but it also seems like there’s been action [00:19:00]taking. Uh, for onshore wind, including proximity to railroads, proximity to infrastructure, the Eagles

Joel Saxum: Migratory Bird Act.

Allen Hall: Yeah, the Migratory Bird Act. And there’s others.

I mean, I, I’m sure the administration is scouring the rule books and law books looking for other things to poke at. One of the things that has been discussed, uh, at least in the press in several different areas, is permits. For private land where wind or solar will be installed, what permits does the Fed have to issue for those projects?

Joel Saxum: Well, it all depends on what the interconnect is, right? So if I wanna put a wind turbine on the top of my house, I have to abide by FAA rules, right? So that, that’d have to be under 500 feet, ’cause 500 feet’s the limit there. Um. May, depending on my jurisdiction, right? If there’s rules in place, which here, there isn’t, but of course, like [00:20:00] in Texas and Iowa and places, there is, uh, setbacks from property lines, right?

In Texas, they tried to just pass a law that was 3000 foot setbacks to to wind turbines from a property line, which essentially makes you have to have like 6,000. 50 foot wide and piece of property to put one turbine in the middle, uh, which is ridiculous to have a piece of property over a mile across, uh, that didn’t pass either way.

But there’s certain rules of those types. Now, if you want to be behind the grid, you don’t have to ab, you don’t have to abide by all of the NERC rulings, the FERC rulings, the, you know, whatever your operator is, the miso, the ercot, the pjm. You don’t have to abide by that stuff if you’re behind the grid.

You just have to abide by a much simpler set of rules. Um, however, as this starts to take place, I could see some lawsuits popping up in certain jurisdictions about that as well. Um, and it’s those, it’s those, those lawsuits that are [00:21:00] like, uh, they’re really kind of complicated. It’s the, your, your messing up the value of my property because I have to look at your turbine.

Then the counter suing party comes back and says, well, this is. Eminent domain because it’s good for public use for the data center that it’s powering and these kind of things. That becomes a long, drawn out legal battle. I think it’ll be

Allen Hall: many years. And if the Trump administration defers and all that and says, oh, we agree with the plaintiff in the case, sure.

Right. And which which can happen. Right. And this is what’s happening. An offshore wind at the minute that, uh, any legal case brought against offshore wind, uh, against the federal government that the Trump administration saying, we surrender. You’re right. Sure. We’ll pull the permits to satisfy this lawsuit.

Joel Saxum: The trouble here, like right from the wind industry, IE us, our constituents, our friends, our colleagues, everybody around us. Why, what’s happening here? What, you know, like the Empire Wind thing that got [00:22:00] pulled, got reinstated without changes,

Allen Hall: no changes to the outcome of that project. Right. And there’s no layout changes.

There’s no cabling changes. At least from what we have seen, we haven’t seen any changes at all. Yeah. So what’s the

Joel Saxum: deal? Right? Like what’s, it’s just like, again, it’s this, it’s a, it’s a negotiation tool. It’s something, there’s something going on there that just doesn’t. It doesn’t make sense.

Allen Hall: It doesn’t extrude maximum pain when you have jack up vessels and several hundred people out on the water.

That’s a time where it hurts the most when you’re almost done, not permitted in making power, but just before then is the time of most pain because all the money has been pouring out and now you’re just adding fuel to the fire. Every day the jack up vessel sits there.

Joel Saxum: Well, I think there is a, there’s a nationalist play here too, because we discussed this a couple years ago, even, I think it was when, um, uh, when the New York fight happened, and then again when the California or the West Coast auctions happened, none of the companies that [00:23:00] won those auctions were US based companies because US based companies don’t have experience in developing offshore wind.

So they. Had to be a minority partner or something of that sort. So I think that that could be a part of the play too. Like, okay, we, we, we alluded to this possibility of, you know, the administration pulling one over on Denmark because of Ted. Uh, but now the one company that has a, uh, that is, uh, US owned, which is Dominion Energy, that has coastal Virginia offshore wind.

They’re under a microscope now. Oh, I would say so. Yeah. I almost guarantee it. I would say in the next few weeks they’ll have something pop. Well, we’re gonna hear something pop up about that wind farm where they’re pulling a permit or reviewing something or whatever, but they’re gonna, cause the administration’s gonna cause pain to them as

Allen Hall: well.

So what are we doing on onshore, Joel, and what are the companies that are involved in onshore wind? Of which there’s 75 ish thousand turbines in the US at the moment [00:24:00] and a lot of wind farms being built. Honestly, there are big, huge EPCs that are putting turbines up right now that have hundreds of millions of dollars invested in cranes and people and infrastructure and tools and all that.

And then you get down to the, the small companies like Weather Guard, honestly, you know, we’re probably as small as you can get in wind, quite honestly. Uh, and then there’s, you know, there’s everybody in the middle. Uh. ISPs, there’s all the technology companies, there’s all the tax advisors, all of the multiple levels of people, engineering companies that are all involved in win from beginning to end.

What are they gonna be doing? What is the plan of attack there? How do you address this kind of threat to the industry?

Joel Saxum: If you follow what the analysts say again, if you trust the analyst companies, if you trust these consultants that are saying they’re, they’re looking in crystal balls and predicting the future.[00:25:00]

What you see is a massive, we’re talking wind now, not all renewables. You see a massive slowdown in greenfield development in 28. We know that there’s gonna be a, a push. It’s big time right now. We’ve been on sites in the last month, right? Um, that they, it’s blowing and going. We got cranes everywhere. We got people everywhere.

EPCs are scrambling to get stuff done. Um, so that the industry’s moving fast, moving forward in an efficient and safe manner to get as many of these projects built as they can before these, uh, you know. Cliffs show up in front of us. So, but we, either way, we have this window where the EPC contractors, the, these feed study engineering companies, the environmental review companies, all of the people that are associated with Greenfield are gonna be super, super, super busy.

My advice to them would be, parlay all the profit you make right now, all the margin you’re scraping right now into o and M services, because you just don’t know. You [00:26:00] can’t. See the future of what it’s gonna look like beyond 27 into 28, 29, 30, 31, 3, 2, I would expect, uh, in my heart of hearts that we’re back up and running and building greenfield development shortly after this administration.

However, I can’t, nobody can guarantee that. So I would par if I was involved in as an EPC, as a TFA type, small ISP, that does the technical field advising for construction. I would use all of the might you have right now and all of the cash reserves you’re building to open up another silo, revenue silo of your business to do operations and maintenance, uh, because that will continue, right?

We’ve got 75,000 in change turbines in the ground, um, and by the end of the next year and a half, two years, that number will probably be 76, 70 7,000, maybe 78 if we’re lucky. Um, so those services are still gonna be needed. [00:27:00] I think that in the next year, because leading up to that, you’re going to see some market consolidation.

I believe that we’ll start to see some more m and a activity in wind, um, pushing from the big guys down. You’re gonna see the larger groups that are multifaceted already or are looking to be more multifaceted, grabbing the specialists, smaller companies. Grabbing blade company with 30 techs, that kind of stuff, right?

Or those kind of things are gonna, they’re gonna be up for sale. We’re gonna see some of that happening for sure. Um, you, we’ve already seen some of the operators start to size down their development groups. Um, repowers being accomplished project on the project management side by people who aren’t necessarily CapEx, project management type people, because these companies don’t wanna bring those new resources on.

They’re just like, you know what? We’ve got some repowers to get done. Let’s just get it done with the staff we have. Or hire a consultant to come in and help us with this because we don’t want to build, we don’t wanna [00:28:00] bolster and build this division of repowering and construction if we don’t know what the future looks like.

Um. This is more I’m, you know, speaking onshore here, right? Offshore wise, some people will, unfortunately, some people are gonna lose their jobs. We’ve seen that happen already. We’ve seen some, some massive amounts of layoffs in the offshore world. So it’s not awesome. But there is gonna be some long-term projects and some long-term things that will stay in place and those people will stay around.

Um, but either way, I would say onshore wise. Offshore gear up, and this is a global thing for me, but gear up for o and m As the fleet grows, it’s still gonna be ma

Allen Hall: need to be maintained. It’s important words of wisdom there. I think everybody needs to be looking at their books at the minute, understanding how their business is operating.

Where they can get a little bit leaner over the next few months and keep your ear to the ground. Uh, don’t assume all this is gonna get [00:29:00] washed under the rug and it’s all gonna go away in a couple months. I don’t think that’s gonna happen. It’s gonna be at least another 18 months of fun times like we’ve just had of, with the last six months, uh, where who knows what’s gonna happen.

But you’re right, Joel, I think the opportunity in. Uh, sites that are not connected to the grid, that are, you know, powering AI data centers all over the place. I think you’re gonna see activity there. Solar, wind, batteries, all the above. That’s cheap, quick to install and does the job or, or what’s gonna happen.

And that may change your business, may change your outlook, but I, I think you need to be watching for that closely. And then, like Joel said, expanding your horizons. Figure out where there’s other opportunities. We did

Joel Saxum: have,

Allen Hall: uh,

Joel Saxum: how share this with our listeners. I had a, uh, a large operator reach out to me just this week and [00:30:00] say, Hey, I know at Uptime, you know, we’ve, we’ve talked with you guys before.

We know you have a large network of people and you know, some of the innovative solutions that are out there. Some of the new technologies, some of the new even software solutions. We are in the process of basically doing a deep dive into what is out there in the wind world, what can help us save some money off, make our operations more efficient, uh, guarantee or increase uptime, like all of these little things, right?

Like the products, like the strike tapes of the world or, um, you know, we’ve been doing these webinars as Sky Spec, some of the software solutions they have. Um, that can, you know, monitor things, keep things healthier, uh, optimize your o and m strategy. And this was a company that was like, we have an initiative as a group, as an engineering team.

We need to go out to the market, find all of these solutions so that we can make our operations look better. As we go, and I think that that’s just the first of those phone calls we’re gonna get. [00:31:00] I think that, uh, that’s gonna become quite the trend here in the next year.

Allen Hall: Yeah, we’re connected. And I think maybe you don’t think a podcast is really connected to the underbelly of an industry, but we know where the technology exists because we’ve talked to them.

They may not even been on the show. Uh, but we have talked to them. Usually it’s hard for a good technology company to miss the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. And Joel, you’re right, it has happened a couple of times, but I think it’s gonna happen more often. And it’s a, we’ve been offering that honestly, if you need to know where the technology is or where others have taken advantage of a technology.

Call us. We’d be glad to share that information with you. Give us your problem statement. Yeah. We’re trying to promote the industry. This is the whole reason this podcast exists, is to get the industry to connect to itself. It’s a global industry. There’s a lot of cool things happening all over the world.

We’re trying to [00:32:00] highlight them and bring them out because they’re hard to find. Quite honestly, Joel, you and I talk about this all the time, some of the coolest technologies. Don’t have the best website. So they don’t, you can’t find them on LinkedIn and it’s hard to search for them, and they don’t really show up in chat, GPT.

But once you’re on the podcast, they’re searchable. And now you can take a deep look and go, oh, there’s a couple of companies doing what I was looking for, and let me call ’em and let me talk to the person I saw on the podcast. That’s the way it’s done. And so if you talk to operators that have used the podcast properly, that’s what they do.

They’re connecting up and getting those answers faster. And getting to the right people in those companies immediately instead of trying to connect, connect, connect, spend months at this or taking hours minutes to do it. It’s a smart move. You’ve got questions about

Joel Saxum: anything? Uh, Joel, do saxon@wglightning.com Always happy to respond or shoot me a message on LinkedIn.

Um, ’cause a, a quick connection to something may ease a lot of pain. Um, and like [00:33:00] Alan said, this is, this, this, this is. This is why we do the podcast. We are, we’re fans of wind energy. We wanted to succeed, uh, and we are, uh, collectively. At least in the US under fire right now. So whatever we can do to help each other out, um, we’re here for

Allen Hall: that.

Wraps another episode outta the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. Thanks for joining us as we explore the latest in wind energy technology and industry insights. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode.

And if you found value in today’s conversation, please. Leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the [00:34:00] show.

https://weatherguardwind.com/us-offshore-wind/

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Morten Handberg Answers the Big RCA Questions

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Weather Guard Lightning Tech

Morten Handberg Answers the Big RCA Questions

Blade specialist Morten Handberg on when an RCA pays off, what SCADA data can and cannot tell you, and why erosion gets written off as wear and tear.

The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast is brought to you by Weather Guard Lightning Tech, creators of the StrikeTape Ultra LPS retrofit. Subscribe to Uptime’s Substack newsletter. And check out Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” Youtube channel. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining light on wind energy’s brightest innovators. This is the progress powering tomorrow

Allen Hall: Morten, welcome back to the program.

Morten Handberg: Thanks, Allen. It’s so– It’s, it’s so such a great, great pleasure to be back again.

Allen Hall: We have a lot to talk about today because of root cause analysis and the number of operators that are really struggling with RCAs, of when to do them or when not to go down the RCA pathway.

It, it– There’s a, a ton of confusion in the industry about it, and we thought, well, this would be a great time for Morten to come back and explain when is the right time for an RCA. So Morten, when is the right time for an RCA? What should we look for? Or wh- how big of the problem sh-should it be [00:01:00]before I find somebody to help me do this RCA?

Morten Handberg: So the obvious question is typically when something really bad happens, then I think everyone can agree that, you know, we should definitely do an RCA to get to the bottom of this. And that’s also just from a– It’s both from a technical perspective to sort of figure out, you know, why did this happen, and, you know, um, who…

Well, what is the, what is the main cause? Is it, is it something that, you know, it was happening while we were operating the asset, be it turbine or whatever? Uh, was it something that was inert in the bla- in the, in the turbine, the blade, the gearbox that was just waiting to happen? So that’s always very important to know.

Also because it tells you what is the chance of this happening again, you know, and, and can you prevent it in a meaningful way? Um, and there’s also a, a safety aspect to it because it’s– so it also tells, you know, uh, what if, you know, you don’t want blade falling left and right. You don’t want gearbox ex- [00:02:00] gearboxes exploding.

You don’t want towers to collapse. We can all agree on that. Uh, and you don’t want this to happen because you don’t, you don’t want to run the risk that someone gets hurt, uh, hurt by it. So then RCA is a really important tool to investigate and find out, well, what happened here, and how can we prevent it, and what is the chances that it happens another time?

So that, that is sort of the– That we can always agree and we would do it when, when something really terrible happens. Then there is the, you know, not so critical ones where, you know, you are just in time, uh, that, that, that you catch it, and then the question is, what is the– when is then the right time for that?

Allen Hall: There seems to be a couple of phases in the lifespan of a turbine where the RCA, it becomes a little more critical. In that first year or two, particularly if the turbine is under warranty or you’re getting close to the end of the warranty, there– at least from a lot of operators I have spoken with, that, uh, [00:03:00] they would like to do an RCA as more of a documentation of what has happened on the site to then maybe claim serial defect maybe l- at another point.

There’s just like the record-keeping part of RCAs, which I’m not sure is the right level of effort for what you’re trying to accomplish. Is, is the RCA the right approach there if you have a, a gearbox issue or a blade issue early in the life cycle of a turbine?

Morten Handberg: There is definitely before the end of warranty, there is a, there is an, there is an aspect, you know, when should you actually do an RCA?

And it should, it, it should benefit you in a way where you can– where there is an economical benefit, because it might not be a massive critical issue, but something that will lead to a lot of maintenance down the t- down the line. Um, but if you want to make it successful in the warranty claim, then you really need to know what is the, what is the cost behind it.

Is it wear and tear? Is it [00:04:00] a manufacturing defect? Is it, uh, environmental conditions, uh, that are, that are causing it? And these, these becomes really important. That’s also why you can, you, you can, you can do an RCA on erosion, uh, because it, it can be important if you see massive, uh, erosion degradation that you really want to understand, what are my local conditions?

Um, and a good example here is Australia, because Australia doesn’t work like Europe. We– You can take all the experiences we have from Europe, but it does not work in Australia. So you might want to do your, your, uh, root cause on that specific issue localized, uh, to really understand it, and that’s when RCA becomes really strong to sort of find out what are the underlying mechanisms, uh, that enables this.

But you can also pour in a lot of cost and effort into relatively minor defects, uh, or issues, um, where it does not really benefit you in the long run, and that will always be a challenge before end of warranty because you don’t really know what will, [00:05:00] what will hit you down the long run, and that’s where you, you know, then, then it becomes more of a strategic decision.

You know, breaking bolts, if you’ve seen one, maybe you don’t want to do an RCA on it. That does not really seem to matter to you that much. It’s just random occurrence. But if you start to see it, uh, in, in quick succession on multiple turbines, adjacent bolts, then it’s important for several reasons. One, you might– If you’re still within warranty, you really wanna know why is this happening and, and how do you fix it long term so this not– does not become a headache for the next 25 years?

Um, so you want to, you want– you really want to understand that. And two You can, you can live with a few broken bolts on the blade, but there, there will become a critical point where the blade will liberate and then, uh, it will, it will col- it will, it will, yeah, leave the turbine or, or collapse on its own, uh, depending on the turbine model.

And, and that is really critical to, to, uh, to avoid and, and to, uh, to [00:06:00]understand that. Um, and maybe the outcome of the idea of the RCA is monitoring, but that is a really important knowledge to have.

Allen Hall: That’s a good point about the monitoring aspect because I think a lot of times when a operator chooses to go down the RCA path, what they’re expecting is just to get a report of this is the conditions that created the damage or created the unexpected outcome Uh, it, sometimes you may not be able to get to that final answer, and the answer can be, we need to put conditioning monitoring on to have a better understanding of what the fault is.

That’s not a invalid RCA. That’s a really useful tool. But a lot of operators don’t think of an RCA as being that sort of outcome. That, that is actually where a lot of the industry problems can be solved, right, is to get the engineering up in upfront to then maybe have a little longer time or maybe instrument another [00:07:00] turbine to see how big this problem is.

I- is, is that the approach that which you would, uh, aspire to apply to some of these wind sites today?

Morten Handberg: I think that monitoring, uh, understanding the monitoring requirements is a very critical point, uh, outcome of an RCA. Both– And you can use it both during your investigation to sort of find out when you have, you know, uh, to, to find out how do you detect it efficiently, uh, but also what are the right methodologies and what is it actually that you want to achieve, uh, with mitigating this issue, and then what, what kind of, what kind of monitoring do you need.

So for instance, if you have, if you have, if you have cracks starting in your laminate, you know, do you need acoustics? Uh, do you need deflection monitoring? Um, is it es- is it vibration monitoring, or is it, um, or is it some kind of, uh, video monitoring, um, that or, or infrared scan that, that, that you need to, to keep, um, to, to, to ca- And again, the essential [00:08:00] part is then how do you catch it in time that it does not become a critical issue?

Uh, and, and then by using the RCA to find out, well, what is the best methodology to, to detect this and detect it in a cost-effective way, uh, that, that leaves you in, in good shape to, to maintain your turbines. That is a, you know, that is a really strong value proposition for the RCA.

Allen Hall: Morten, when I talk to a lot of operators about doing an RCA, uh, they don’t have access to high-speed scada, scada data.

They, they have access to low speed, depending on what their arrangement is with the OEM. Uh It’s really hard to get the high-resolution data, and they do not have the algorithms that maybe be able to tell them something about the turbine. They’ll just have sort of raw data streams. How important is it to get some of that high-speed data and the understanding of how that turbine is working as a, a fault [00:09:00] happens or s- some sort of failure happens?

Morten Handberg: It kinda depends on what it is that you’re, that you’re looking for. So for a lot of… for, for, so for SCADA data, it will, it will give you, um, a more holistic view of what, how the turbine is performing. It will give you the power production, wind speeds, wind turbine, uh, the blade pitching. Um, so it kinda gives you an understanding about how it is, how, how it is operating, but it st- does not really give you any specifics about the condition of, of the blades, of the gearbox, of the bearing, of the main shaft, of the tower.

So, um, so it does, so you don’t really have any, any detailed sense of that. You do have alarm logs, and they can be quite important. But in order for, uh, to sort of, uh, to tie that in with the failure that you’re seeing, you have, need to have a very, uh, a very strong sense of, you know, have, need to have an accurate sense of when did this actually happen.

So establishing the timeline of when the failure occurred, that, that sorta increases [00:10:00] the value of SCADA data. Um, so you can– The, one of the things you can learn from SCADA data is you can see the performance was, were, versus what, how the power production is. And then you can start to see, you can start to see how the, you know, if there’s any deviation, um, uh, that ties up in environmental conditions that, that sort of, that would affect the, the, uh, any of the turbine components.

And then SCADA data can be a very, uh, very important tool in addition to your other analysis. But you still need… But SCADA data is only a part of it, and it will only give you a s- a sense of, uh, com- with the alarm logs, it will give you, it will give you, it sorta help you build the timeline of what actually happened here.

And I can give you an example. So- If we’re looking at a blade failure, and we sort of know, well, the blade broke in half at a certain point in time. It was, uh, a very rapid occurrence, so it, it was not something that happened over a very long period of time. It was, it was a quick succession. When [00:11:00] did we start to go wrong?

Um, then scatter data can be really good to sort of, you know when it failed because the turbine did restart. But was that when things went wrong? Not necessarily. Uh, there could be times before that when you could have had tower oscillation, so shock effects. It can, it can be, um, it can be, uh, alarms from the pitch system that says, you know, the, that there is something with the blade.

It does not really behave right or that it can’t really turn right. Um, and/or the, the turbine does not really produce as it should. That can then, that can then help you establish, okay, how far back is this actually? When, when does this really start from when it collapsed and then when does the issue started to occur?

Um, so then, then, then scatter data becomes useful, but it’s not something that will tell you it was lightning, it was manufacturing, uh, or otherwise. That scatter data doesn’t really work for that, but it helps you establish the timeline of it.

Allen Hall: All right. That’s very interesting, uh, because I think that plays into some of the questions about [00:12:00] insurance and when you have a damage or some situation where you have had exceeded the deductible, right?

So you’re, you’re, now you’re into a couple hundred thousand dollars of a claim of some sort. There’s two opposing opinions about RCAs that right there is, one is I’m gonna file a claim. The insurer will perform the RCA and come back to me with what actually happened, and then we can figure out the financial details.

The other side is, I wanna have an RCA so when I hear back from the insurer, uh, that they, uh, my RCA aligns with their RCA, that we’re in agreement. And if we’re not in agreement, uh, how do we handle the difference? What is the right approach there? Is there a right approach there?

Morten Handberg: Often where you would start is, uh, you would actually a- if, if there is an issue and you’re, as an operator, is concerned, you would often start with going to your OEM and saying, “Hey- We see [00:13:00] this.

This does not seem right, or this component failed. We need you to provide an, an RCA and if you have a good contract, then the OEM is obliged, uh, to provide that. But that will state, that will be stated in, in your contract if they are required to do so. So I would, I would use my contract for that. Then if, uh, they don’t are required to perform an RCA, they don’t want to, or you’re unsatisfied with it or, and you have filed an insurance claim, then, uh, then there might be an obligation for you to carry out an RCA.

Or there might be a strong desire for you to sort of either find out, well, is the OEM right? Um, or is there something I need to challenge them on here? And then an RCA become– And that, that, that’s when you want to do your own RCA. Uh, and then whether or not you, the insurer, uh, will do an RCA, that, that sort of depends on the, on the process of the claim.

Uh, if there’s any, uh, if there’s a [00:14:00] contes- some, some contention, uh, between the parties. Um, more often than not, there is, there is a, there is collaboration between all parties if all are interested in, in seeing things coming to, to the right end, and that they use– sort of let the RCA be the, be the guiding star and that everyone can agree, okay, whatever the outcome of the RCA is, we’ll stand behind that as long as it’s carried out in a professional manner.

And these different boxes that we want to have checked, that they are all verified and there’s documentation for it. So it can be an, it can be a good tool to, uh, to sort of, uh, have an alignment on the, um, on, on a, on a claims process, really.

Allen Hall: I wanna touch on how the OEMs play into the RCA. So l- let’s use the example which is happening here in the United States quite a bit, and also in Europe offshore, which is leading edge erosion And the question regarding wear and tear versus something that’s a claim, and [00:15:00] if ex- there’s been accelerated leading-edge erosion, trying to put a root cause to that.

Is it a manufacturing issue? Is it a location issue? Is it a maintenance issue? It could be all of them or a combination thereof. Uh, how does that work? And is the RCA the right approach there just to put some markers in the ground as to what the issue really is or the underlying causes are?

Morten Handberg: Yes, but it has to be an independent RCA.

Um, because there, um, if there is invested interest in having one result over the other, then there will always be distrust between the parties. Um, you know as well as me that a lot of leading-edge degradation, I would say, is being marked out, marked out as leading-edge erosion. Uh, but from some of our previous talks then, you know, there is very much difference in leading-edge erosion defects because you can have scratches, you can have voids, you can have, uh, peeling, chipping, and you can have erosion.[00:16:00]

Um, but and, and they look very distinct, but often they get thrown into the same category, and they get thrown into the same cause, being wear and tear, which is ridiculous because, um, a lot of it is, uh, uh, uh, you know, some of the key defects they’re manufacturing with, uh, driven. So peeling and voids, that is manufacturing, and they are driving a lot of the erosion.

But if that gets masked as erosion, then, well, it’s just an environmental de- effect, so we can’t really tell. And I think also, you know, a lot… there’s a lot of, uh, issues regarding leading-edge protection systems peeling off, and then they don’t work as well, which is also somewhat, you know, we, we talked about this before ear- earlier in the podcast, you know, Australia having their own issues.

I think one of the issues that they have is environmental conditions, that’s very obvious, but that leading-edge protection systems are notoriously difficult to install there because of the hot and at times humid conditions, and they don’t work very well with a lot of [00:17:00] leading-edge, uh, products. So that would mean it’s not an environmental effect that caused a leading-edge erosion, uh, systems to fail, to fail.

It’s the application. Um, does that mean that Australia need their own product? Yes, but they need systems that are reliable and applicable in their con- in their conditions that will lead to, uh, stronger durability. And again, that’s what you need the RCA to, to, to figure out. And if you have a, an RCA carried out by someone who wants it to be wear and tear, then regard- then unless you can…

they, they, they come up with something else than wear and tear, you will always have a, a slight distrust in the result. So that’s why I would always argue, if you have concern for leading-edge erosion, then absolutely go to your O&M, figure out if they have a– if they’ve seen it before, they are keen to, to engage and provide a suitable solution and, and, you know, share actual knowledge.

But I would always keep in back of my head that if, if you’re not [00:18:00]100% sure about their– them telling the right– you– they’re, they’re telling you the truth, I would get it sanity checked, and I would carry out my own independent study which is what a lot of O- O&Mers are doing.

Allen Hall: That’s a really important bit of information for sure, Morten.

When going out to look for an RCA provider, what tends to happen, at least in the United States, and I think, uh, Australia can be this way at times and, and Europe definitely is, is that the chosen supplier of the RCA is one of the acronym companies. We all know who we’re talking about here. Just because they’re large in scale and they have a lot of capabilities, they have a lot of engineers, and, uh, they b- some of these things are pretty routine, and it does seem like they can, can do this job.

But I’m seeing more and more independent companies doing RCAs because of the level of detail. Some of the bearing issues that have popped up really require an expert in [00:19:00] bearings. Some of the tower issues require someone, especially foundation, someone who’s knowledgeable about concrete. Uh, same thing for lightning.

Usually you need somebody who knows something about lightning to be involved instead of a, a, a larger organization. What are you seeing in that space today? Are you seeing more, uh, narrow focus, uh, independent groups or engineers working on RCAs, or is it still mostly the big companies that we all know?

Morten Handberg: I would say that, uh, all of the acronym companies, uh, all have very good, talented engineers employed.

I don’t think we need to d- you know, we can all agree on that. But, uh, what I can sometimes be concerned is whether how much politics plays into their, um, their output. Um, so what would be important for me if I was, if I own a wind farm and my expertise is blades. So if I needed someone to look at my tower or my, my gearbox, I would find an expert within that [00:20:00] field.

I would definitely find someone in my network or, uh, uh, or, uh, otherwise that I know can provide an independent and honest opinion without, uh, having any any relationship to any of the OEMs or component suppliers, um, including the, including the coding suppliers. They’re all good. They’re all, uh, very, uh, all, all very skilled, have good products.

But they’re gonna want someone to look at, you know, what is the best solution for me with what is out there, um, and not be blindsided or focused on what is, you know, uh, other in, in interest in that.

Allen Hall: Right. Because it, it’s, it’s sometimes hard to tell where y- everybody’s intentions lie. It’s like hiring an attorney, I think, at some point, and that’s what I tell people is it’s like hiring an attorney.

Do you want an attorney that’s on your side, y- y- or and helping you? Do you want someone who’s more like a judge that’s just an independent person [00:21:00] or, or an advocate? Like, what are you looking for exactly? And it, uh, you need to think that out, uh, before you make your selection. And a lot of times there’s just a couple of defaults, which I have Have done really well, obviously, because the larger firms have a lot of engineering experience and have seen things globally, but not necessarily– That’s, that doesn’t mean they’ve seen your particular, uh, problem, particularly on a, on a new turbine design.

Those are really difficult RCAs, in my opinion. And Morten, you see this all the time on new turbines. Like, those are the

troublemakers in, in– from engineering to try to solve the problems ’cause they’re, they’re new.

Morten Handberg: Yeah, and we’re, we’re, we’re playing catch up, uh, with the, with the technology, and we’ve, we’ve been, been, been like that for for quite a few years now. And, and whenever, uh, a, a new blade that is, uh, ten meters long, well, we think we know what the, what the previous versions, how they worked and, uh, and what, what could go wrong with them, and that’s both in terms of the structure, in terms of the, uh, storage, in terms of, of lightning.[00:22:00]

But it seems like, you know, there’s some-always something new popping up, uh, and also in new environments that we’re installing turbines creates new problems that we haven’t really foreseen. And, and again, if something that you’re not expecting then suddenly starts to appear, that’s also when you, you really want to, to use the RCA tool to, to sort of get to, uh, get a handle on what is going on and get an– and get that deep dive understanding about what it is, because it will help you, uh, uh, understand, well, what are my risks going forward, and what can I do to mitigate?

Uh, and, um, yeah, on, you know, uh, and is there, is there, is– Do I need to, to look at, uh, putting a claim together?

Allen Hall: Morten, this is super helpful. I know a lot of operators around the world, uh, really question when to do an RCA, and if they should be doing RCAs, is it worth the spend? And you’re a great resource on that just because you’ve done a number of RCAs over the years, and you’ve been involved in [00:23:00] other companies that have performed tho-that task, and you have a, a sense of reality there of, uh, probably not an RCA, but probably some engineering time.

Or no, you really, really need to be on an RCA right now. How do people get ahold of you and, and to pick your brain about that an-and to get some, some knowledge, uh, to help them make their decision?

Morten Handberg: Um, yeah, you can always look me up on LinkedIn, and I am always happy to engage. Uh, if anyone has a question on, on blades or on RCAs or on maintenance, um, my door’s always open, and I’m happy to have a chat, uh, and share my knowledge.

That’s how I’ve been operating for my entire career, and that’s how I intend to continue. So please feel free to reach out, and ha-looking forward to, to the, to the discussion.

Allen Hall: Morten, it’s great to have you back on the program. Looking forward to having you again in the future.

Morten Handberg: I, I’m loo-looking forward to many more, more, more, more times on your show, Allen.

Thank you so [00:24:00] much.

Morten Handberg Answers the Big RCA Questions

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Banning Sharia Law in the U.S.

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The MAGA base is on fire about Trump’s quest to ban Sharia law.  It would take any of them about 15 seconds, if they wished to look into this, to learn that Sharia law has no official legal status or authority in the United States, because the U.S. Constitution and secular laws always come first.
  • No Authority: American courts do not follow or enforce Sharia law.
  • Religious Freedom: Muslims in the U.S. follow Sharia as a personal and moral guide for daily worship and life, just as people of other faiths follow their own religious rules.
  • Constitutional Limits: Religious practices cannot break federal or state laws.

For a moment, think about an American judge’s sentencing a thief to have his hand amputated, or having an adulteress stoned to death.

Banning Sharia Law in the U.S.

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American Farmers Are Singing a Different Tune

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The reason that the MAGA base supports Trump never was rooted in personal gain, whether that meant income, healthcare, or God knows, education.  Yes, they got shafted by the rising cost of living, but they never suffering anything like what’s happening the American farmer.

From AI:

Financial Losses and Debt
  • Deepening Deficits: The American Farm Bureau Federation projects that crop farmers will lose roughly $31 billion and face another $32 billion in losses.
  • Negative Returns: Major row crops like corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton are operating well below breakeven.
  • Rising Debt: Total farm debt has climbed to record highs near $560 billion, straining producers who also face high interest rates and inflation for seeds, fuel, and fertilizer.
Trade Wars and Tariffs
  • Export Disruptions: Retaliatory tariffs from trading partners like China have severely cut into U.S. soybean and corn exports.
  • Beef and Rancher Backlash: Administration moves to temporarily lift tariffs on foreign beef imports to lower grocery store prices have angered domestic ranchers and farm bureaus who fear being undercut during a historic low in cattle inventory.

Capping all this off is Trump’s allowing hundreds of millions of pounds of ground beef to be imported with zero tariffs.

American Farmers Are Singing a Different Tune

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