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人工智能(AI)等技术的蓬勃发展带动了中国数据中心的“爆发式增长”,同时也推高了能源消耗和碳排放。

截至2023年底,中国以449个数据中心的数量位居亚太地区之首。

国际能源署(IEA)最新报告显示,2024年中国数据中心用电量已占全球数据中心用电总量的25%,成为仅次于美国的全球第二大电力消耗国。

与各国情况类似,中国数据中心用电量预计将在未来几年持续快速增长,人工智能的兴起是重要推动因素之一。

不过,当前实际需求规模及未来增速仍存在不确定性。

现阶段,其他驱动因素对电力需求增长的影响仍远大于数据中心。

虽然各方对数据中心的预测数据存在差异,但有报告指出,其电力需求可能从2025年的100-200TWh(太瓦时)激增至2030年的600TWh,相应的CO2排放量或将达到200MtCO2e(百万吨二氧化碳当量)。

尽管中央和地方政府已出台多项政策以应对数据中心的环境影响,但挑战依然存在。

电力需求不断增长

中国国务院援引官媒《中国日报》2021年的一份报道称,2020年中国数据中心耗电量达200TWh,约占当年全国总用电量的2.7%,预计到2030年将增至400TWh(占比3.7%)。政府最新数据显示,2022年数据中心用电量为77TWh,2025年预计为150-200TWh,2030年或达400TWh。

2025年初,彭博社援引高盛(Goldman Sachs)更高预估称,中国数据中心的电力需求“预计将增长两倍多(从目前的200TWh),到2030年可能接近600TWh”。

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相比之下,国际能源署(IEA)的预测则更为保守,其预计2024年中国数据中心用电量仅为100TWh,到2027年可能翻倍。

无论从占全国电力需求的比重,还是作为需求增长的驱动力来看,数据中心的规模仍然有限。

不同机构的数据显示,当前中国数据中心用电量约占全国总用电量的0.9%至2.7%。

彭博社指出,数据中心的用电量“不到制造业的十分之一”,并提到仅2024年一年,工业用电需求就增加了300TWh。

国际能源署表示,自2022年以来,数据中心仅占新增电力需求的3%,到2027年这一比例可能升至6%。该机构认为,中国电力需求增长的主要推动力来自工业领域,包括工业电气化及供热和交通电气化。

不过,国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所副主任韩雪表示,到2025年底,数据中心相关的CO2排放量预计将占全国总排放量的1%。

建设“绿色数据中心”

2021年,中国宣布了一项为期三年的行动计划,旨在建设“高效、清洁、集约、循环”的“新型数据中心”。

该行动计划包括提高数据中心PUE(电能利用效率)的措施。PUE是衡量数据中心能源效率最常用的指标。

其计算方式是将数据中心总能耗除以IT设备能耗。该比值越高,表明数据中心的能效越低。

截至行动计划结束,全国数据中心平均PUE已从上年的1.54降至1.48。

2024年提出的新目标是到2025年将大型数据中心的PUE控制在1.25以下。相比之下,拥有欧洲最多数据中心的德国要求现有数据中心从2027年起平均PUE需达到1.5。

与此同时,中国于2022年启动了备受期待的“东数西算”国家工程,旨在处理东部人口稠密省份产生的数据。该项目鼓励在西部太阳能和风能资源丰富的地区建设新数据中心,以支持东部繁忙的大都市。

根据该工程规划,中西部地区的数据中心将处理更多非实时云计算需求,如离线分析和存储备份,而对时效性要求高的数据服务仍由东部地区提供。

内蒙古等北方地区的地方政府也出台了配套政策,推动数据中心与可再生能源设施协同建设。

此外,北京地方政府已为数据中心提供资金支持,用于改善其PUE。而南方科技中心广东省则选择将部分数据中心建在海底,以减少冷却需求并降低能耗。

自2020年起,中国政府持续跟踪数据中心能源转型进展。2024年最新数据显示,全国已有50余个数据中心达到“绿色”能源标准,其中国家电网1个、互联网企业14个。

面临可再生能源挑战

到2030年,中国数据中心预计将消耗400TWh至600TWh的电力,相关排放量可能达到200MtCO2e。

当前,中国可再生能源资源主要集中在北方地区,而电力需求仍集中在东南沿海。这意味着,即便有“东数西算”工程的支持,数据中心通常也依赖于长距离输电来使用可再生能源。

“绿色电力在数据中心行业应用前景广阔,但仍面临诸多挑战。”绿色和平气候与能源资深项目主任吕歆说。

她向Carbon Brief指出:“完成跨省绿色电力交易仍然非常困难。”她解释道,这主要受限于可再生能源发电的不稳定性以及长距离输电线路的高昂运维成本。

中国已出台相关政策,支持绿电直供数据中心,并建设了配备专用可再生能源和储能设施的“绿色电力产业园区”。

“这些政策的推进和市场机制的完善将促进数据中心使用绿电。”吕歆补充道。

另一项挑战是数据中心的用水需求。由于需要大量冷却用水,数据中心可能加剧西部和北部地区本就紧张的水资源压力。

为应对这一问题,北京、宁夏和甘肃等地政府已出台强制性措施,要求提升数据中心用水效率,并逐步淘汰电力和水效率低下的数据中心。

随着数据中心规模不断扩大以满足人工智能运算需求,未来可能出现更多耗电量达数千兆瓦的”超大规模”数据中心,这将带来更大的电力供应压力。在国家整体电力结构中,采用更清洁的燃料组合有助于减少排放。

但研究机构SemiAnalysis指出,由于中国对煤炭的依赖,当前中国数据中心“在排放方面处于明显劣势”。

目前煤炭在中国能源结构中占比约60.5%。国际能源署数据显示,中国大部分数据中心所在的东部地区,约70%电力来自煤电。不过该机构预测,2030年后可再生能源与核能的快速发展将“推动煤炭的退出”。

该报告预计,到2035年,可再生能源和核能将“共同满足中国数据中心60%的电力供应”。

The post 解读:中国如何应对数据中心能源增长的需求 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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Carbon Brief Quiz 2026: Picture Round 1 and 2

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All answers will need to be submitted via the Google form by the end of the half-time break

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

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        Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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