Following the US exit from the Paris climate agreement in January, Argentina’s government, under President Javier Milei, is evaluating whether to follow suit – but analysts say leaving the global accord would be legally tricky and could damage relations with some of the country’s key trading partners and donors.
Earlier this month, right-wing populist leader Milei told French news magazine Le Point he was considering quitting the Paris pact “because I do not adhere to the environmentalist agenda”.
Milei campaigned on a ticket of climate change denialism, has supported major oil and gas projects and cut the environment ministry’s budget by almost half. He also pulled Argentina’s negotiating team out of the COP29 climate conference in Baku last year.
On February 5, the same day the president’s comments were published, his spokesman Manuel Adorni told journalists that Argentina was mulling a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, but no decision had been taken at that point.
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For the past year, even before Trump announced he would pull the US out of the Paris pact, Milei’s administration has been considering the implications of such a move. But analysts warn that doing so could hurt trade relations with close partners like China and the European Union (EU), and cripple climate finance flows into the country.
Experts also told Climate Home Milei would need to follow due process by seeking parliamentary approval for a withdrawal.
Congressional hurdle
On his first day in office on January 20, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order to kick-start the one-year process of pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement – the same way former President Barack Obama joined the accord. But Argentina is a different story.
The Latin American nation ratified the 2015 climate agreement through a law approved by Congress, which means that Milei would need to follow the same route to leave it.
“It was approved as an integration treaty, with a status below human rights treaties and above general laws,” said Andrés Nápoli, executive director of the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation (FARN).
“If (Milei) does not go through Congress and decides to adopt the decision unilaterally, (he) would be committing a crime,” Nápoli told Climate Home.
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Despite lacking a majority in both legislative chambers, Milei managed to negotiate his way through his first year in office, but a Paris Agreement exit might be more complex, as the low-carbon transition represents an economic opportunity for several provinces.
Argentina’s recently appointed new undersecretary of environment, Fernando Jorge Brom – a business consultant with no experience in the sector – is yet to reveal his climate agenda, including his stance on the Paris Agreement, according to local NGOs. His predecessor, Ana Lamas, resigned two weeks ago “because of personal reasons due to exhaustion”.
Trade partners back Paris
The EU is Argentina’s third-largest trade partner, with food products like soy and peanuts being the main exports. Its biggest trade partner is Brazil, the host of this year’s COP30 climate summit.
Last December, the renegotiation of the commercial agreement between the EU and Mercosur – a trade bloc that includes Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil and Uruguay – included a new article citing the Paris Agreement as an essential element.
“Recognizing the role of trade in contributing to the response to the urgent threat of climate change, each party shall remain a party, in good faith, of the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement,” states a key clause in the text.
If Argentina were to leave the climate accord, the trade deal with the EU would be partially or totally suspended, according to its terms. It would also isolate the country from the rest of the Mercosur members, which could remain in the agreement.
The updated EU-Mercosur agreement still needs to be reviewed by legal teams and approved by respective parliaments.
Argentina’s second trading partner is China. Last month, in response to the US decision to leave the Paris Agreement, Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “China’s resolve and actions to actively respond to climate change will remain unchanged,” adding that “China will work with all parties to actively address the climate challenge and promote a global green and low-carbon transition.”
Finance needs
For the past two decades, Argentina has been struggling with economic instability, macroeconomic imbalances and a stratospheric inflation rate. More recently, climate impacts resulted in a production loss of 50 million tonnes of cereal crops between 2022 and 2023 due to a record drought.
Remaining in the Paris climate pact would allow Argentina to use the treaty as a framework to channel investments, said Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, an Argentinian climate policy analyst and consultant.
“It gives [Buenos Aires] access to adaptation funds, capacity building programmes and international cooperation for the development of projects aligned with climate action that contribute to a country’s infrastructure and society,” he explained.
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Of the 72 projects the World Bank approved for Argentina in the last decade, 23 were directly linked to policies to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
The Inter-American Development Bank has also financed projects supporting the emergency response to floods in Corrientes and Entre Ríos provinces, as well as forest fires in Córdoba.
IMF indifference?
In 2018, Mauricio Macri’s government contracted debt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of $44 billion, making it the largest disbursement in the fund’s history at the time.
In 2022, Argentina and the IMF agreed an extension to pay back the debt over 10 years. In December 2024, the interest part of the loan for the first two years was paid. Now Milei’s government is seeking to negotiate a debt restructuring of the same loan, which could include climate considerations.
“The IMF has an important role to play in helping its members institute fiscal and macroeconomic policies to help address these climate-related challenges,” the fund says on its website, adding that “climate considerations are now embedded in their bilateral and multilateral surveillance, capacity development, and lending.”
In the 2022 agreement, the objectives set for Argentina included three specific climate policies: a new electric mobility law, a “Green Productive Development Plan” to boost green skills and the circular economy, and a stronger environmental perspective in the national budget.
Yet those are not mandatory conditions to access funds, said Mercedes D’Alessandro, analyst and former director of economy, equality and gender at the Ministry of Economy in the previous administration.
“For the debt restructuring sought by Milei’s government, the [IMF] might have a deeper interest in macroeconomic goals,” said D’Alessandro.
In a recent evaluation, the IMF drew attention to certain commitments in Argentina’s 2022 programme of policy objectives that were not met – among them gender goals – but not climate policies.
“Climate change is not on the IMF’s agenda of priorities – or not specifically with Argentina,” D’Alessandro told Climate Home.
While that may be the case with the country’s individual fiscal situation, Maurtua Konstantinidis warned that snubbing the international climate regime could shut Argentina out of a broader global effort – now gathering pace – to ease the high debt burdens of many developing countries so they can spend more on climate action.
“At a time when there are talks of reforms to the financial system in pursuit of a more sustainable and fair future, staying outside of these spaces means losing opportunities for the future – opportunities that a country like Argentina needs,” he added.
The post Risk of financial fallout could deter Argentina from leaving Paris Agreement appeared first on Climate Home News.
Risk of financial fallout may deter Argentina from leaving Paris Agreement
Climate Change
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Blazing heat hits Europe
FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.
HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.
UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.
Around the world
- GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
- ‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
- EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
- SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
- PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.
15
The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
- A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
- A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Factchecking Trump’s climate report
A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80
Spotlight
Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.
On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.
In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.
(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)
In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.
Forward-thinking on environment
As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.
He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.
This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.
New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.
It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.
Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.
“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.
Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.
What about climate and energy?
However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.
“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.
The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.
For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.
Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.
Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.
By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.
There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:
“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.
NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.
‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.
Coming up
- 17 August: Bolivian general elections
- 18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
- 18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
- 21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama
Pick of the jobs
- Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
- EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Climate Change
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.
Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.
The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.
The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.
It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.
Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.
Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.
Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.
The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)
The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.
In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.
Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.
The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/
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