Power-sector emissions have fallen by 20% across the EU since the last European parliamentary election in 2019, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Between 6-9 June, around 360 million people across the EU will vote for representatives from national parties to sit in the European Parliament.
The grouping or coalition with the most seats will help to shape the leadership of the next European Commission. The overall composition of parliament will also influence the bloc’s priorities between 2024-2029.
Climate change and energy once again feature prominently in the manifestos of the major parties, with mounting pressure to secure energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drawing particular focus.
Core to this is a transition to decarbonised domestic energy. Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that the relatively small nations of Portugal, Latvia and Finland have led the way since the last EU election, with the largest percentage drop in power-sector emissions between 2019 and 2023.
Malta and the Netherlands have led in increasing their renewables shares, with the Netherlands also seeing the largest absolute increase in renewable generation.
Meanwhile, fossil-fuel generation fell in all but three countries when comparing 2019 and 2023.
Other key findings from the analysis include:
- All national power systems across the EU are cleaner than in 2019, with EU renewables share increasing from 34% in 2019 to 44% in 2023.
- Germany saw the largest fall in power-sector emissions in absolute terms since the last EU emissions.
- There were just three EU countries where fossil fuel use has increased since 2019 – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania.
- The Czech Republic remains the biggest per-capita emitter in the EU, but per-capita emissions fell in all but three countries.
- Overall, all of the EU’s power systems have become cleaner since 2019, with the most carbon-intensive grid (Poland) making the fourth most progress in absolute terms.
- Malta and the Netherlands have increased their renewables share by more than 150% relative to 2019.
- Spain added the most solar generation in absolute terms. Poland increased its solar generation by more than 1,500%, increasing generation by 12TWh.
In this analysis, Carbon Brief looks at how the electricity sector has changed since the last election.
All of the EU’s power systems cleaner than 2019
Every national power system across the EU has become cleaner since the last European Parliamentary election in 2019, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
Finland led the way in terms of reducing grid intensity – the measure of how clean the electricity within national grids is – halving its intensity between 2019 and 2023 to become the third cleanest in the EU, behind France and Sweden.
In absolute terms, Greece reduced its grid intensity the most since 2019, Carbon Brief shows. The country hit a new record high level of clean energy generation, with power grid operator IPTO announcing that renewables and hydroelectric plants accounted for 57% of the country’ energy in 2023.
Germany saw the largest fall in power-sector emissions in absolute terms – namely, the overall volume of CO2 emissions produced. Like Greece, the country had a “landmark” 2023 for renewable generation, according to thinktank Ember.
Carbon Brief analysis shows that power-sector emissions in Germany fell by 43.23m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), or 18.4%, of 2019 values by 2023.
Despite this significant drop, the country’s power sector is still the most polluting of all EU countries, responsible for 29.3% of EU power-sector emissions. This places it far ahead of Poland, the second largest polluter, which is responsible for 17% of emissions.
Germany has one of the largest populations in Europe and its energy demand sits at 514TWh (19% of EU total). When looking at per-capita emissions (as shown below), the country sits fourth in the EU for emissions, seeing a reduction of 0.51tCO2 in 2023 compared with 2019.
Portugal, Latvia and Finland decarbonised their power sectors the most relative to 2019, analysis shows.
Portugal saw renewables supply 61% of its electricity consumption in 2023, according to the country’s grid operator Redes Energéticas Nacionais. This totaled 31.2TWh – the most it has ever recorded. This included a period in November where the country ran on just renewables for six days in a row.
Carbon Brief’s analysis of Ember data placed the 2023 figure even high, with 73% of electricity from renewable sources.
As shown in the chart below, there were just three EU countries where power-sector emissions have increased since 2019 – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania. These countries are some of the smallest in Europe, collectively accounting for less than 1% of total EU power generation in 2023.
Malta increased its power-sector emissions by 0.11MtCO2, or 10.3%, of 2019 emissions. As an island nation, Malta’s energy system is still heavily dominated by imported oil and gas, making up nearly 90% of power generation. (Malta has some of the lowest per-capita emissions in Europe, with 5.3 tonnes CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) per inhabitant in 2019, well below the EU average of 8.4tCO2e.)
Croatia, where emissions increased by 0.4MtCO2 or 13%, is similarly reliant on fossil fuels, with coal still dominating its power sector. While power demand has remained stable in recent years, net imports of electricity have dropped likely due to higher electricity prices in neighbouring countries.
Although renewable generation offset most of this, it did lead to a small jump in fossil fuel use of ~1TWh.
Lithuania saw emissions increase by 0.32MtCO2, from 0.57MtCO2 in 2019 to 0.89MtCO2 in 2023, Carbon Brief analysis shows. The country is currently heavily reliant on electricity imports, after the closure of its only nuclear power plant in 2010 changed it from a net exporter to a net importer.
Chris Rosslowe, senior energy and climate data analyst at Ember, tells Carbon Brief:
“Trends in generation in Lithuania don’t tell you as much as in other countries as it imports most of its electricity since shutting down nuclear power in 2010. Import dependence is slowly lowering though – from ~75% in 2019 to ~55% in 2023 – and, like Croatia, renewables are growing faster than fossils.”
It is undergoing a particularly key period of transition. Lithuania’s electricity grid currently operates synchronously with the Russia-Belarus power system, but it is planning to de-synch by 2025 and instead run with the continental Europe grid.
Additionally, it is among the countries that are seeing the fastest expansion of wind generation. It is also targeting halving its imports and generating 70% of its electricity from domestic sources by 2030, as it pushes for increased energy sovereignty and security.
Rosselowe notes that Malta, Croatia and Lithuania are all expected to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels in the coming years, offset in large part by growing renewables.
Overall, the Czech Republic remains the biggest per-capita emitter in the EU, as shown in the chart below. Between 2019 and 2023, emissions in the country did drop from 4tCO2 to 3.2tCO2, but it still sits 0.9tCO2 above the second highest per-capita emitter Cyprus (3.1tCO2).
The three countries that saw an increase in per-capita emissions match those where there was an increase in fossil fuel generation – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania.
Renewable generation grows in all but one country
Between 2019 and 2023, the share of renewable generation in the EU increased in all by one country, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Italy saw renewable generation fall from 115.83 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019 to 114.8TWh in 2023. This was broadly due to the impact of droughts in the country affecting hydropower generation, which hit in 2022, but had a continued impact in 2023.
This was a wider dynamic seen globally, which kept the world from hitting peak electricity generation emissions in 2023.
Slovakia, meanwhile, was the only country to see a dip in its share of renewable energy when comparing 2019 and 2023. This was minor, falling just 0.65% from 23.57% to 22.92%. The country has one of the smallest energy demands in Europe and, like Italy, saw a drop in hydro driven by droughts in 2022.
Malta and the Netherlands saw their share of renewables increase by more than 150% in 2023 relative to 2019, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
The Netherlands increased its absolute share of renewable generation by close to 30% since 2019, as shown in the chart below. The country seeing the largest absolute increase in renewable generation, closely followed by Spain.
Nearly half the electricity produced in the Netherlands is now renewable, according to the Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics.
This was predominantly wind generation, with the country adding more wind power than any other country in the EU between 2019 and 2023, both relatively and in absolute terms. Overall, the Netherlands increased its wind generation by 152% and Finland followed closely behind with a 143% rise.
Latvia, similarly, saw significant growth, with the share of renewables jumping from 49.5% in 2019 to 76.6% in 2023. This 27.1% increase is particularly key for the country, as it continues to target reducing its dependence on energy imports from Russia.
Spain added more solar generation in absolute terms over the four-year period than any other country in the EU, tripling its overall renewable generation.
Poland increased its solar generation by more than 1,500%, increasing generation by 12TWh albeit from a low starting point of just 0.71TWh in 2019. Renewables generated a record 26% of electricity in the country in 2023. However, coal still produces most of the country’s electricity and continues to have a powerful impact on policy due to powerful lobbies.
Hungary has increased its solar share of generation the most since 2019, with an increase of 14%. It was followed closely by the Netherlands, with a 12.8% increase. Luxembourg increased wind power share of generation by more than the Netherlands – 17%.
Just three EU countries see fossil fuel generation increase
Overall, just three EU countries – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania – saw an increase in the share of fossil fuel generation in 2023 relative to 2019, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Over the same period, Luxembourg and Finland reduced fossil generation by more than 60%.
The Netherlands has reduced its fossil fuel share in the electricity system the most since 2019, falling by close to 30%. As shown in the chart below, this fall was mirrored by a significant increase in renewable energy generation.
In comparison with 2019, Ireland saw an increase in coal generation in 2023 making it the only EU nation to do so. In 2019, coal generation was at a record low in the country (0.51TWh) before jumping to 2.72TWh in 2022 due to a drop in wind generation.
However, since that point coal power generation has been continuing to fall again, in line with the wider trend seen over the past few decades.
Ireland has seen total electricity demand increase by more than 60% since 2019, Carbon Brief analysis shows. The country’s energy demand has been particularly driven by the growth of data centres, which accounted for 18% of energy demand in 2022, for example.
Despite the blip in coal generation, the share of fossil fuels fell by 2.5% between 2019 and 2023.
Portugal reduced its use of coal the most, relative to 2019, while Germany reduced the most in absolute terms. As discussed above, this was supported by surging renewable generation in both countries.
Pieter de Pous, programme lead in E3G’s fossil fuel transition programme, tells Carbon Brief:
“Europe’s phaseout of coal has been one of its biggest, most historical, monumental success stories of the last couple of years when you think about it. We’ve dropped consumption since 2016 by 50%, right? It’s really enormous and it’s a story that’s rarely told.”
The last European Parliament elections saw a “green wave” of climate-focused politicians winning seats across the continent. In the years that followed, the EU approved a European Green Deal, including goals to cut emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050.
European member states now have a “critical role” to play in implementing what has been agreed, notes Rosslowe. He adds:
“The next legislative agenda is likely to be built around themes of security and competitiveness. The first main task regarding energy and climate for the new parliament will be to appoint a team of commissioners who will tackle these – and any other new policy priorities – in a way that complements rather than competes with the objectives of the Green Deal.”
The post Analysis: European power-sector emissions fall by 20% since last EU election appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: European power-sector emissions fall by 20% since last EU election
The European Commission has launched a strategy to protect people in the EU from “fossil-fuel price shocks” and accelerate the expansion of “homegrown clean energy”.
The strategy notes that the latest fossil-fuel crisis, triggered by the Iran war, has already cost the EU an additional €24bn for imports of oil and gas.
Carbon Brief has identified 44 specific actions in the AccelerateEU package, ranging from an “ambitious” new electrification target through to filling up the bloc’s depleted gas storage. (See the internative table below.)
The proposals are meant to ensure the EU has enough fuel in the short term, to protect consumers from price rises and – in the longer term – to curb reliance on oil and gas.
Many EU nations are already spending billions to provide immediate relief to their citizens amid the energy crisis, which was sparked by the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February.
With its new 16-page plan, the commission has set out an initial blueprint to shift the bloc towards a more resilient future, including a proposal for tax changes that favour electricity over gas as part of a drive to incentivise clean technologies.
However, much of the plan relies on European governments taking up the proposals and changes to EU-wide taxation will depend on the full support of all member states.
Why has the commission launched AccelerateEU?
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran, triggering a war and sparking an energy crisis.
Iran is a major oil producer and much of the world’s liquid natural gas (LNG) exports transit through the region.
Shipping through the critical strait of Hormuz has been paralysed and direct attacks by both sides on fossil-fuel infrastructure, including some of the world’s biggest oil and gas facilities, have paused production.
This pushed oil prices over $100 a barrel for much of March. Whilst they have now dipped below that benchmark following a ceasefire agreement, they remain elevated and uncertain – for example, a report of an attack on a ship in the strait earlier this week led them to briefly spike over $100 again.
Moreover, there is a widespread fear that markets are not accurately pricing the level of risk posed by an extended conflict. A 21 April article in the Economist was titled: “Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster.”
To manage the impact of the surge in prices seen so far, countries around the world have announced a range of measures to protect consumers.
Carbon Brief tracked more than 200 policies from 60 nations over the first month of the war, including cutting fuel taxes, implementing driving bans and fuel rationing, and boosting domestic renewable-energy construction.
Earlier this week, the UK government announced a series of measures to “double down on clean power” in response to the unfolding energy crisis.
AccelerateEU is the European Commission’s proposal to provide “immediate relief to European households and industries, especially the most vulnerable ones, while putting Europe on a steady pathway to energy independence”.
It is a response to a request by EU heads of government at the 19 March European Council meeting to present “targeted temporary measures to address the recent spikes in the prices of imported fossil fuels arising from the crisis in the Middle East”.
The proposal includes both short-term and structural measures with longer-term effects to “further reduce dependency on volatile fossil-fuel markets”.
It highlights that “coordination is key” and proposes a range of “timely, targeted and temporary measures”. AccelerateEU prioritises the shift to homegrown clean energy, “stepping up” the electricity grid and boosting investment.
The strategy stresses that this is the second time in less than five years that such a crisis has hit Europe, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent ongoing war.
While Europe is less directly exposed to the conflict in Iran than the Ukraine war, its heavy reliance on oil and gas imports still leaves it vulnerable to surging prices.
For example, the commission notes that since the escalation of the conflict in February, the EU has spent an additional €24bn on energy imports due to higher prices.
The European Commission states that this is “a strong reminder of the need to accelerate electrification” as “the current crisis is also a call… to end exposure to fossil-fuel price shocks and import dependencies”.
In a statement, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said:
“The choices we make today will shape our ability to face the challenges of today and the crises of tomorrow. Our AccelerateEU strategy will bring both immediate and more structural relief measures to European citizens and businesses.
“We must accelerate the shift to homegrown, clean energies. This will give us energy independence and security, and mean we are better able to weather geopolitical storms.”
What actions have been proposed?
Carbon Brief has identified 44 distinct actions in the commission’s plan, ranging from affirmations of existing policies to entirely new initiatives. The commission has divided its proposed measures into five key “areas of action”, which are:
- Improving EU-wide coordination;
- Protecting consumers and industry;
- Accelerating the shift to homegrown clean energy and electrification;
- “Stepping up our energy system” through measures such as grid improvements;
- Boosting investment for the energy transition.
Some of the measures, particularly those involving coordination between member states, focus on fossil fuels. Examples include working together to fill gas storage facilities and ensuring the full use of domestic oil refineries.
However, roughly half of the actions set out by the commission focus specifically on scaling up clean energy or boosting electrification across the EU.
The table below includes all of the actions laid out in the AccelerateEU plan, including target dates and descriptions by the commission of what each one would entail.
By summer, the commission says it will set out an electrification action plan, including an “ambitious” electrification target and various measures to “remove barriers to the electrification of the industrial, transport and building sectors”.
Central to the commission’s strategy is a proposal to overhaul the EU’s taxation system so that it favours electricity over gas. It plans to introduce a legal proposal for this change in May, but passing this would require unanimous approval from all member states.
Media coverage of the commission’s proposals noted that it has “stopped short” of introducing a windfall tax on oil and gas company profits, of the kind used during the 2022 energy crisis. However, the commission says it will “assist and provide best practices” for any member states that choose to implement such taxes domestically.
Some of the AccelerateEU measures – such as updating the EU emissions trading system (EUETS) – were already underway prior to the energy crisis, but could contribute to its goal of curbing reliance on fossil fuels.
Some proposals focus on securing aviation fuel, amid warnings that Europe will soon be running low. The commission will map out existing fuel supplies and provide guidance to the aviation industry on how to deal with shortages.
Many of the proposals set out in AccelerateEU involve the commission playing a supportive role, but leaving decisions up to member states.
The commission says it will relax state-aid rules to allow member states to “implement targeted, temporary emergency measures” for sectors that are hit hardest by the energy crisis.
Countries across Europe have already taken domestic actions to protect consumers and industry from energy price rises and an annex document contains various proposals for ideas to provide “immediate relief”.
This includes targeted relief on energy bills for vulnerable households, reducing the costs of public transport and delaying the retirement of nuclear power plants. It will be up to member states which of these policy options they choose to implement.
What happens next?
The majority of the measures outlined by the European Commission are set to come into force in April or May 2026. (See the table above for dates).
On 23-24 April, the measures will be discussed by EU leaders at the informal European Council meeting in Cyprus.
Subsequently, EU energy ministers will receive a catalogue of energy-saving and efficiency measures at a meeting on 13 May. This will be based on an assessment of the most efficient measures taken since the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war. It will set out ways nations can rapidly reduce oil and gas consumption in the short term.
AccelerateEU also includes reference to various pieces of work already being undertaken by the commission to support decarbonisation, for example, updates to the EUETS.
The commission will consult with member states on this update “soon”, before adopting a legislative proposal by 31 July. This will build on changes that have already been proposed to the market stability reserve.
The commission notes that AccelerateEU “is one part of the commission’s dynamic response” and “will evolve as the situation develops”.
Beyond what is already outlined in the proposals, the EU is looking at ways to mitigate the impact of the Iran war on agriculture, aviation and other sectors.
The European Commission will present a fertiliser action plan on 19 May, according to Reuters, to “accelerate decarbonisation and address affordability issues made more urgent by the knock-on effects of the Iran war on an already tight market”.
It is reportedly “mulling jet fuel imports from the US and new minimum reserve quotas as it eyes options amid a supply crunch due to the Iran conflict”, according to Al Jazeera.
Euractiv says the European Commission “is rejecting demands to clamp down on air travel” in response to the crisis.
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Iran war: EU strategy sets out 44 actions to limit ‘fossil-fuel price shocks’
Climate Change
Ohio Is Where Wind and Solar Projects Go to Die, and Other Findings From New Research on State Permitting
State governments have approved 90 percent of the renewable energy projects to come before them, and make decisions in about a year. Ohio leads in permit rejections and withdrawals.
Ohio resembles a torture chamber for renewable energy developers, according to new research that examines how regulators in 19 states handle wind and solar project applications.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vast system of ocean currents that helps to distribute heat around the world.
By transporting warm water from the tropics northwards and cold water back southwards, the AMOC keeps Europe warm and plays a role in controlling global rainfall.
It connects into an even larger network of ocean currents that continuously moves water, nutrients and carbon around the world.
Now, the AMOC is under threat from human-caused climate change, as warming seas, melting ice and increased rainfall upset the temperature and salt balance of the North Atlantic.
Scientists have warned that the ocean currents are slowing down – and could eventually become so frail that they no longer transport heat around the globe.
A growing body of research has suggested that, with enough warming, the AMOC could reach a “tipping point” and transition to a weak state for many centuries.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that the AMOC will decline over the course of the 21st century as the world warms.
However, whether – and when – currents might “collapse” remains a subject of debate.
The IPCC says a “collapse” before 2100 is unlikely.
However, some scientists have argued climate change could force the AMOC past a “point of no return” over the coming decades that could usher it towards a “shutdown” next century.
A major slowdown or “tipping” of the AMOC could have grave consequences for European temperatures, causing them to plunge – despite global warming.
It could also affect global food supply, sea level rise and global rainfall patterns, or even act as a catalyst that sets off a series of other catastrophic climate “tipping points”.
Below, Carbon Brief explains what the AMOC is and how it is being impacted by climate change.
The article also explores scientific debates around the future of the AMOC, including what the latest research says about the possibility and consequences of a collapse of the ocean currents.
To read the full article, click here: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.html“
The post AMOC: Is global warming tipping key Atlantic ocean currents towards ‘collapse’? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/amoc-is-global-warming-tipping-key-atlantic-ocean-currents-towards-collapse/
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