Power-sector emissions have fallen by 20% across the EU since the last European parliamentary election in 2019, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Between 6-9 June, around 360 million people across the EU will vote for representatives from national parties to sit in the European Parliament.
The grouping or coalition with the most seats will help to shape the leadership of the next European Commission. The overall composition of parliament will also influence the bloc’s priorities between 2024-2029.
Climate change and energy once again feature prominently in the manifestos of the major parties, with mounting pressure to secure energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drawing particular focus.
Core to this is a transition to decarbonised domestic energy. Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that the relatively small nations of Portugal, Latvia and Finland have led the way since the last EU election, with the largest percentage drop in power-sector emissions between 2019 and 2023.
Malta and the Netherlands have led in increasing their renewables shares, with the Netherlands also seeing the largest absolute increase in renewable generation.
Meanwhile, fossil-fuel generation fell in all but three countries when comparing 2019 and 2023.
Other key findings from the analysis include:
- All national power systems across the EU are cleaner than in 2019, with EU renewables share increasing from 34% in 2019 to 44% in 2023.
- Germany saw the largest fall in power-sector emissions in absolute terms since the last EU emissions.
- There were just three EU countries where fossil fuel use has increased since 2019 – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania.
- The Czech Republic remains the biggest per-capita emitter in the EU, but per-capita emissions fell in all but three countries.
- Overall, all of the EU’s power systems have become cleaner since 2019, with the most carbon-intensive grid (Poland) making the fourth most progress in absolute terms.
- Malta and the Netherlands have increased their renewables share by more than 150% relative to 2019.
- Spain added the most solar generation in absolute terms. Poland increased its solar generation by more than 1,500%, increasing generation by 12TWh.
In this analysis, Carbon Brief looks at how the electricity sector has changed since the last election.
All of the EU’s power systems cleaner than 2019
Every national power system across the EU has become cleaner since the last European Parliamentary election in 2019, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
Finland led the way in terms of reducing grid intensity – the measure of how clean the electricity within national grids is – halving its intensity between 2019 and 2023 to become the third cleanest in the EU, behind France and Sweden.
In absolute terms, Greece reduced its grid intensity the most since 2019, Carbon Brief shows. The country hit a new record high level of clean energy generation, with power grid operator IPTO announcing that renewables and hydroelectric plants accounted for 57% of the country’ energy in 2023.
Germany saw the largest fall in power-sector emissions in absolute terms – namely, the overall volume of CO2 emissions produced. Like Greece, the country had a “landmark” 2023 for renewable generation, according to thinktank Ember.
Carbon Brief analysis shows that power-sector emissions in Germany fell by 43.23m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), or 18.4%, of 2019 values by 2023.
Despite this significant drop, the country’s power sector is still the most polluting of all EU countries, responsible for 29.3% of EU power-sector emissions. This places it far ahead of Poland, the second largest polluter, which is responsible for 17% of emissions.
Germany has one of the largest populations in Europe and its energy demand sits at 514TWh (19% of EU total). When looking at per-capita emissions (as shown below), the country sits fourth in the EU for emissions, seeing a reduction of 0.51tCO2 in 2023 compared with 2019.
Portugal, Latvia and Finland decarbonised their power sectors the most relative to 2019, analysis shows.
Portugal saw renewables supply 61% of its electricity consumption in 2023, according to the country’s grid operator Redes Energéticas Nacionais. This totaled 31.2TWh – the most it has ever recorded. This included a period in November where the country ran on just renewables for six days in a row.
Carbon Brief’s analysis of Ember data placed the 2023 figure even high, with 73% of electricity from renewable sources.
As shown in the chart below, there were just three EU countries where power-sector emissions have increased since 2019 – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania. These countries are some of the smallest in Europe, collectively accounting for less than 1% of total EU power generation in 2023.
Malta increased its power-sector emissions by 0.11MtCO2, or 10.3%, of 2019 emissions. As an island nation, Malta’s energy system is still heavily dominated by imported oil and gas, making up nearly 90% of power generation. (Malta has some of the lowest per-capita emissions in Europe, with 5.3 tonnes CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) per inhabitant in 2019, well below the EU average of 8.4tCO2e.)
Croatia, where emissions increased by 0.4MtCO2 or 13%, is similarly reliant on fossil fuels, with coal still dominating its power sector. While power demand has remained stable in recent years, net imports of electricity have dropped likely due to higher electricity prices in neighbouring countries.
Although renewable generation offset most of this, it did lead to a small jump in fossil fuel use of ~1TWh.
Lithuania saw emissions increase by 0.32MtCO2, from 0.57MtCO2 in 2019 to 0.89MtCO2 in 2023, Carbon Brief analysis shows. The country is currently heavily reliant on electricity imports, after the closure of its only nuclear power plant in 2010 changed it from a net exporter to a net importer.
Chris Rosslowe, senior energy and climate data analyst at Ember, tells Carbon Brief:
“Trends in generation in Lithuania don’t tell you as much as in other countries as it imports most of its electricity since shutting down nuclear power in 2010. Import dependence is slowly lowering though – from ~75% in 2019 to ~55% in 2023 – and, like Croatia, renewables are growing faster than fossils.”
It is undergoing a particularly key period of transition. Lithuania’s electricity grid currently operates synchronously with the Russia-Belarus power system, but it is planning to de-synch by 2025 and instead run with the continental Europe grid.
Additionally, it is among the countries that are seeing the fastest expansion of wind generation. It is also targeting halving its imports and generating 70% of its electricity from domestic sources by 2030, as it pushes for increased energy sovereignty and security.
Rosselowe notes that Malta, Croatia and Lithuania are all expected to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels in the coming years, offset in large part by growing renewables.
Overall, the Czech Republic remains the biggest per-capita emitter in the EU, as shown in the chart below. Between 2019 and 2023, emissions in the country did drop from 4tCO2 to 3.2tCO2, but it still sits 0.9tCO2 above the second highest per-capita emitter Cyprus (3.1tCO2).
The three countries that saw an increase in per-capita emissions match those where there was an increase in fossil fuel generation – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania.
Renewable generation grows in all but one country
Between 2019 and 2023, the share of renewable generation in the EU increased in all by one country, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Italy saw renewable generation fall from 115.83 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019 to 114.8TWh in 2023. This was broadly due to the impact of droughts in the country affecting hydropower generation, which hit in 2022, but had a continued impact in 2023.
This was a wider dynamic seen globally, which kept the world from hitting peak electricity generation emissions in 2023.
Slovakia, meanwhile, was the only country to see a dip in its share of renewable energy when comparing 2019 and 2023. This was minor, falling just 0.65% from 23.57% to 22.92%. The country has one of the smallest energy demands in Europe and, like Italy, saw a drop in hydro driven by droughts in 2022.
Malta and the Netherlands saw their share of renewables increase by more than 150% in 2023 relative to 2019, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
The Netherlands increased its absolute share of renewable generation by close to 30% since 2019, as shown in the chart below. The country seeing the largest absolute increase in renewable generation, closely followed by Spain.
Nearly half the electricity produced in the Netherlands is now renewable, according to the Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics.
This was predominantly wind generation, with the country adding more wind power than any other country in the EU between 2019 and 2023, both relatively and in absolute terms. Overall, the Netherlands increased its wind generation by 152% and Finland followed closely behind with a 143% rise.
Latvia, similarly, saw significant growth, with the share of renewables jumping from 49.5% in 2019 to 76.6% in 2023. This 27.1% increase is particularly key for the country, as it continues to target reducing its dependence on energy imports from Russia.
Spain added more solar generation in absolute terms over the four-year period than any other country in the EU, tripling its overall renewable generation.
Poland increased its solar generation by more than 1,500%, increasing generation by 12TWh albeit from a low starting point of just 0.71TWh in 2019. Renewables generated a record 26% of electricity in the country in 2023. However, coal still produces most of the country’s electricity and continues to have a powerful impact on policy due to powerful lobbies.
Hungary has increased its solar share of generation the most since 2019, with an increase of 14%. It was followed closely by the Netherlands, with a 12.8% increase. Luxembourg increased wind power share of generation by more than the Netherlands – 17%.
Just three EU countries see fossil fuel generation increase
Overall, just three EU countries – Malta, Croatia and Lithuania – saw an increase in the share of fossil fuel generation in 2023 relative to 2019, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Over the same period, Luxembourg and Finland reduced fossil generation by more than 60%.
The Netherlands has reduced its fossil fuel share in the electricity system the most since 2019, falling by close to 30%. As shown in the chart below, this fall was mirrored by a significant increase in renewable energy generation.
In comparison with 2019, Ireland saw an increase in coal generation in 2023 making it the only EU nation to do so. In 2019, coal generation was at a record low in the country (0.51TWh) before jumping to 2.72TWh in 2022 due to a drop in wind generation.
However, since that point coal power generation has been continuing to fall again, in line with the wider trend seen over the past few decades.
Ireland has seen total electricity demand increase by more than 60% since 2019, Carbon Brief analysis shows. The country’s energy demand has been particularly driven by the growth of data centres, which accounted for 18% of energy demand in 2022, for example.
Despite the blip in coal generation, the share of fossil fuels fell by 2.5% between 2019 and 2023.
Portugal reduced its use of coal the most, relative to 2019, while Germany reduced the most in absolute terms. As discussed above, this was supported by surging renewable generation in both countries.
Pieter de Pous, programme lead in E3G’s fossil fuel transition programme, tells Carbon Brief:
“Europe’s phaseout of coal has been one of its biggest, most historical, monumental success stories of the last couple of years when you think about it. We’ve dropped consumption since 2016 by 50%, right? It’s really enormous and it’s a story that’s rarely told.”
The last European Parliament elections saw a “green wave” of climate-focused politicians winning seats across the continent. In the years that followed, the EU approved a European Green Deal, including goals to cut emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050.
European member states now have a “critical role” to play in implementing what has been agreed, notes Rosslowe. He adds:
“The next legislative agenda is likely to be built around themes of security and competitiveness. The first main task regarding energy and climate for the new parliament will be to appoint a team of commissioners who will tackle these – and any other new policy priorities – in a way that complements rather than competes with the objectives of the Green Deal.”
The post Analysis: European power-sector emissions fall by 20% since last EU election appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: European power-sector emissions fall by 20% since last EU election
Four Ugandan farmers filed a case with London’s High Court on Tuesday, aiming to stop the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) from starting to operate by asking the court to apply Uganda’s laws against the project’s UK-registered company.
The controversial 1,443-kilometre (897-mile) pipeline, majority-owned by French energy company TotalEnergies, aims to carry crude from Ugandan fields for export through neighbouring Tanzania. About 80% has been built so far, according to its developers.
The pipeline’s first oil exports are expected as soon as October, according to its developers, and the campaign group Avaaz, which is backing the farmers’ crowdfunded lawsuit, called it “one final chance to stop one of the worst oil pipelines on the planet”.
The claim, filed by London law firm Leigh Day, argues that EACOP Ltd’s role in developing and operating the pipeline breaches Ugandan laws that protect citizens’ right to a clean and healthy environment.
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Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline
The farmers and their lawyers will argue that a UK-based entity linked to the East African Crude Oil Pipeline has breached Ugandan law and construction should halt -
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Oil and gas giant TotalEnergies has been given six months by a court to publish a more robust climate plan -
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One of the claimants, Racheal Tugume, told a press conference she had been displaced from her land due to the pipeline’s construction, which she said had damaged local rivers, wildlife and ecosystems that communities depend on for their livelihoods just as erratic weather linked to climate change takes an increasing toll.
“I am very happy that there are people in countries like the UK who are listening to us, who are behind us and who have come to support us,” Tugume said, adding that she hoped the case would bring justice to communities affected by the pipeline.
Ugandan law in UK court
While the pipeline is a joint venture led by TotalEnergies, with smaller stakes owned by Ugandan, Tanzanian and Chinese national oil firms, it is operated by EACOP Ltd, a company registered to an office in London’s Canary Wharf financial district.
EACOP Ltd did not respond to a request for comment.
The claim appears to be the first attempt to have Uganda’s climate and environmental protections enforced in a foreign court, partly reflecting concerns over whether cases challenging the multibillion-dollar pipeline would get a fair trial in Uganda.
Ugandans living near new oil pipeline let down by compensation programmes
Concerns about access to a fair hearing are among the issues the court will consider when deciding if it should take on the case, said Matthew Renshaw, partner at Leigh Day.
Renshaw said that precedents including the Nigerian oil pollution case against Shell have shown that claims against British-registered companies for harms overseas can be successfully fought in UK courts.
“We are proud to represent the four brave principled individuals,” Renshaw said.
Constitutional protections
The pipeline project has already been subject to repeated lawsuits in several countries, none of which have succeeded. A climate lawsuit filed in Uganda more than a decade ago by a group of young people has yet to conclude. Another at the East African Court of Justice, brought by campaign groups against Uganda and Tanzania, was rejected on procedural grounds last November.
A separate ongoing lawsuit in TotalEnergies’ home country of France – a refiled version of an earlier failed claim – cannot stop EACOP going ahead, but it does seek damages from TotalEnergies for affected communities.
With the newly launched case, Leigh Day’s legal adviser Marc Willers said the claim draws on specific Ugandan laws in a bid to stop EACOP’s operations.
Uganda may see lower oil revenues than expected as costs rise and demand falls
These include the Ugandan constitution, a 2019 environmental law and the National Climate Change Act 2021, which gives Ugandans the right to bring a case before a court in circumstances where anyone or any entity threatens the country’s ability to mitigate climate change.
Stopping a “carbon bomb”
The pipeline, which will link Uganda’s Lake Albert oil fields to Africa’s east coast in Tanzania, has already displaced thousands of people and cuts through the Lake Victoria basin, one of East Africa’s major freshwater systems and a critical water source for around 40 million people.
According to the BankTrack non-profit, when the pipeline is at peak production, it will carry 216,000 barrels of crude oil per day and release over 33 million tonnes of carbon emissions each year. Over its full lifetime of 25 years, it is estimated to release about 379 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions across its value chain including construction, refining and product use.
A May 2026 report from Earth Insight also warns that the pipeline and related infrastructure could affect 158 wetlands in Uganda, 11 rivers, 44 protected areas and seven key biodiversity areas while disrupting about 2,000 square km of protected wildlife habitats.
This is why the primary focus of the UK court case is to stop the operation of the pipeline in its tracks, Leigh Day’s Willers said, calling it a “carbon bomb” that would worsen the world’s climate crisis.
Long wait for first hearing
While the purpose of the case is to stop the pipeline from launching operations, Renshaw said it could take about 12 months before the case gets a first hearing and about 18 months before it goes to trial.
Billions unlocked as Green Climate Fund agrees to spend more and save less
The farmers are, however, seeking an injunction to stop EACOP Ltd from proceeding with operations. In the event that shipments begin, the lawsuit will still seek to stop the pipeline from then on, Renshaw said.
“We will be doing what we can to expedite matters but it is possible that EACOP will have started operating the pipeline before the claim is heard. If that is the case, the claim would intend to halt operations from that point. For example, the pipeline may operate for just one year rather than 30-plus, resulting in far less harm,” he said.
The post Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline appeared first on Climate Home News.
Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline
Climate Change
Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole
Welcome to Cited, your essential guide to new climate research.
In the news
‘HEAT ALERT’: At least 25 people died as a “heat dome” smothered the eastern half of the US, reported the Guardian, with more than 20 states under “stifling temperatures more than 100F (38C)”. More than 140 million people were under heat alerts, the outlet said, with dead bodies found in “homes with no air conditioning, outside their residences, on the street and in parked cars”. Analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that the combined heat and humidity would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused warming, reported the New York Times.
‘MORTALITY WILL RISE FURTHER’: Meanwhile, extreme heat continued to hit Europe, with Le Monde reporting on temperatures of 40C in France, Portugal and Spain again this past weekend, alongside “devastating” wildfires. Public Health France doubled its preliminary estimate of the “excess deaths” from the extreme heat in late June, from 1,000 to more than 2,000, according to the Guardian. The higher figure was still “probably an underestimate”, the agency said. Analysis published by Carbon Brief put the figure at 2,700 heat-related deaths. A WWA attribution study, covered by Carbon Brief, found that Europe’s June heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” even 50 years ago.
‘BOOST TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURES’: The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher”, reported Reuters. A WMO scientist told the newswire that “El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Niño”.
Research picks
Extremes
- The annual season when “intense” tropical cyclones occur has lengthened by 10-14 days per decade across the world since the 1980s | Nature Communications
- There is an “increasing” and “overlooked” global threat from glacial outburst floods from small lakes | Nature Sustainability
- Female smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa experience crops losses 2-2.5 times greater than male smallholders in periods of extreme heat | Nature Sustainability
Policy
- The summaries for policymakers in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mitigation reports over 2001-22 “have not yet become more solution-oriented while abiding by their policy-neutrality principle” | npj Climate Action
- Two-thirds of countries address inequality in their national pledges under the Paris Agreement – particularly in “countries with lower levels of human development and greater income inequality” | Climate and Development
- To “future proof” the Paris Agreement’s “well-below 2C” limit, it should be interpreted as a median “peak warming” of 1.6-1.8C, rather than a 66-90% chance of staying below 2C | Nature Climate Change
Land sink
- From 2001 to 2015, northern Eurasia absorbed about 0.47bn tonnes of carbon each year – around one-third of the total global land carbon sink | Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Model simulations of potential land-use carbon emissions out to 2100 show that “deforestation and forest regrowth dominate variability” of emissions, with policy timing and ambition “exerting strong control” | Nature Communications
- Tropical forests are facing an increase in areas that exceed critical temperatures where their “photosynthetic system breaks down” | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Captured
On 21 June, global average sea surface temperature (SST) reached a record high for the day of the year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Daily SST for the global ocean, excluding polar regions, reached 20.86C on 21 June, exceeding the 20.83C reached on the same day in both 2023 and 2024, the C3S said. Global SST has remained at record levels for every day since. The conditions “could indicate the beginning of a new phase, leading, once more, to uncharted territory”, said C3S director Carlo Buontempo.
56 hours and 30 hours
The amount of time that the average lifespan of tropical cyclones in the north-east and north-west Pacific has shortened, respectively, over 1982-2024, according to a study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. This shorter lifespan “compresses the time available for weather forecasting and disaster preparedness”, the authors said.
Spotlight
The ozone hole and climate change
As a new “thought experiment” asks whether the hole in the ozone layer could, theoretically, have been identified decades before it was discovered, Carbon Brief explores the interactions between climate change and the ozone hole.
It is now more than 40 years since the discovery of the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, detailed in the journal Nature in 1985.
A study more than a decade earlier had predicted that chlorine-based substances – such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – could lead to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere.
So, in theory, how early could the ozone hole have been detected?
New research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, explored this very question.
Study co-author Prof Susan Solomon from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is a leading atmospheric scientist. In the late 1980s, Solomon and colleagues identified the mechanism behind how CFCs were causing ozone depletion.
The new study is a “thought experiment”, Solomon told Carbon Brief, asking when scientists could have discovered the ozone hole had they had access to modern satellite observations.
“We found that depletion could have been detected as early as 1957 in the tropical upper stratosphere, where natural variability is especially small,” explained Solomon.
This would have been before the use of CFCs became widespread, Solomon added. Instead, early ozone depletion was caused by carbon tetrachloride, a chemical used as a cleaning agent, as well as in fire extinguishers and for producing refrigerants.
For many decades, the ozone hole and global warming have often been confused by the public and the media, Solomon explained:
“It’s common to imagine that because ozone is so important at shielding us from the UV [ultraviolet] light that causes skin cancer, then having less ozone must mean the Earth would warm up.”
For example, in a 1995 editorial, the Los Angeles Times congratulated the Nobel prize-winning chemists who identified the threat of CFCs to the ozone layer. The newspaper noted that these processes “threaten calamitous global warming by damaging the Earth’s protective layer of ozone”.
However, said Solomon, “the Earth is warmed much more by visible light – UV doesn’t really contribute, so ozone depletion doesn’t cause significant warming”.
Regional impacts
The depletion of ozone actually has a very small cooling effect at the Earth’s surface. But this is more than outweighed by the warming impact of CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances.
This warming impact means that efforts to reverse ozone depletion have had a beneficial impact on the climate.
The Montreal Protocol, a 1987 international agreement to phase out CFCs, “has played – and is playing – a very substantial role in safeguarding climate too”, said Solomon:
“It turns out that the CFCs and their replacement gases HCFCs [hydrochlorofluorocarbons] are strong greenhouse gases, so phasing out their production has not only avoided a lot of ozone depletion that would otherwise have occurred, it also had a big influence on global warming.”
HCFCs were considered as “transitional substitutes” for CFCs – they still damaged ozone, but to a lesser extent – until ozone-safe alternatives were commercially available.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are not ozone depleting, began to be used widely in the 1990s. However, HFCs are also potent greenhouse gases. HFCs and similar replacements are now being phased out under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.
While the ozone hole itself has only a very small impact on global temperatures, it does have a clear impact on the regional climate over Antarctica.
Prof David Thompson from Colorado State University, working with colleagues including Solomon, has published research demonstrating that “changes in southern-hemisphere winds linked to the stratospheric ozone losses extend all the way down to the ground in some seasons”, explained Solomon.
This has “reduc[ed] warming that would have occurred in interior Antarctica and enhanc[ed] warming in the Antarctic Peninsula region”, she said.
The knock-on impacts include “wind changes [that] actually extend beyond Antarctica to the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere, where they even affect rainfall”, she added.
Preprints to watch
Carbon Brief’s pick of new papers under review
- The drying impact over Africa from using stratospheric aerosol injections to stabilise global temperatures would only be minimised “when combined with a strong decarbonisation effort” | Earth System Dynamics
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole could “shape” the playing conditions at the Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia | Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
- A “strong” weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would “profoundly alter the climate-carbon cycle system”, underscoring the “importance of explicitly accounting for AMOC risks in long-term climate assessments” | Earth System Dynamics
Noticeboard
- 6 July-25 September: Registration open for experts to review the first-order draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group I report
- 7-15 July: UN High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, New York
- 19 July: Application deadline for a postdoctoral scholar in transdisciplinary climate research at Penn State University, US | Salary: unknown
- 22 July: Application deadline for PhD project on “climate change impacts on the Antarctic coastal ocean carbon sink” at the University of East Anglia, UK
- 26 July: Application deadline for PhD projects on “AI for land-atmosphere feedbacks during hydroclimatic extremes” at the Helmholtz School for Integrated Data Science in Environmental & Life Sciences, Germany
- 29 July: Application deadline for an assistant professor in Earth and environmental geosciences (palaeoclimatology) at Colgate University, US | Salary: $97,500-101,500
- 31 July: Application deadline for PhD project on Arctic Ocean methane oxidation at Stockholm University, Sweden
Cited is researched and written by Cecilia Keating, Robert McSweeney, Ayesha Tandon, Daisy Dunne and Dr Giuliana Viglione.
Please send tips, feedback and upcoming climate research to cited@carbonbrief.org
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cited email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole
In June 2026, a record-breaking heatwave swept across Europe, with France among the first and hardest hit countries.
In a new analysis, we estimate that the extreme conditions caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths in France.
We also show how France’s extreme temperatures in June exceeded projections from climate models.
Our findings illustrate the human toll of extreme weather as the world warms.
We also highlight the challenges in projecting the magnitude of future heatwaves and their impacts on people.
Outpacing projections
For most of this century, Europe has seen summer heat extremes that outpace projections from climate models.
Several different factors likely explain this trend, including reductions in planet-cooling aerosols as nations have cleaned up their air pollution, as well as changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which models struggle to represent.
In June 2026, daily high temperatures averaged across France reached 36.9C, shattering the previous June record set in 2022 by 2.4C.
[For more on the impacts and coverage of Europe’s June heatwave, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.]
The rise in observed temperatures in France has outpaced projections made by climate models, with June maximum temperatures more in line with what was expected for the 2070s.
This is illustrated in the figure below, which shows how France’s average maximum daily high temperature for June recorded in 2026 (black line) compares to climate model projections (blue and orange lines).
Counting the death toll of climate change
The downstream impacts of these extreme temperatures are lethal.
Scientists are able to estimate the death toll of high temperatures in many locations, depending on the availability of mortality and climate data.
There are several ways to do this.
One option is to examine death certificates to see which deaths have been directly recorded by physicians as related to heat. However, there is strong evidence that this method significantly undercounts heat-related deaths, as most death certificates do not consider environmental factors such as heat when diagnosing the cause of death.
Alternatively, it is possible to calculate the rate of total (“all-cause”) mortality in a given time period relative to previous time periods – for example, by comparing the total number of deaths in June 2026 compared to the average of previous Junes. This “excess deaths” figure can be used as an estimate of the deaths from a heat wave.
Using this approach, Public Health France attributed around 2,000 deaths in France to the extreme heat in the week of 22-28 June.
Finally, scientists can use long-term data on overall mortality and correlate changes in mortality with changes in temperature to understand the statistical relationship between the two.
Research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2025 that used this third approach found that mortality rates in France increase rapidly in cold or hot conditions as daily maximum temperatures depart further from approximately 20C.
This pattern of a U-shaped response of mortality to temperature – shown in the figure below – is very consistent across time periods and regions around the world.
To calculate the death toll of the June 2026 heatwave in France, we compared observed temperatures over 12-29 June to their baseline average over 1980-2025.
The difference between these two temperatures helps us understand how many more people died than they would have in the absence of such extreme conditions.
Over 12-29 June, we found that France has experienced around 2,700 heat-related deaths above the average baseline. Day-to-day heat-related mortality rates rose from less than 100 to almost 300 on the hottest days of 24 and 25 June.
This is shown in the graph below, which illustrates the cumulative total heat-related deaths seen in France over the two-and-a-half week period. The inset shows how heat-related deaths fluctuated on a day-to-day basis during this time.
Recent analysis by World Weather Attribution has already shown that human-caused climate change increased the frequency and intensity of the June heat wave across Europe.
Meanwhile, previous research has shown there is substantial evidence that heat-related mortality in Europe has already been elevated by greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result, we can be confident that at least some of the more than 2,700 deaths already seen in France are directly due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Calculating climate risk
In April, the UN-led body responsible for coordinating the work of climate modelling centres – the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP) – unveiled a set of seven new emissions scenarios.
These are designed to replace the previous scenarios that have been used by scientists to understand how the climate might change in the future. They will feed into the upcoming seven assessment report (AR7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The range of future emissions in the new CMIP scenarios is smaller, with scenarios of very high or very low emissions no longer on the table.
The retirement of the very-high emissions scenario – known as “RCP8.5” – led to certain commentators in the media and in politics, including US president Donald Trump, arguing that the risks of climate change had been “overstated”.
[For more on false and misleading claims around the new emissions scenarios, see Carbon Brief’s factcheck.]
Our analysis of June’s heat-related deaths in France suggests that, even if the most severe emissions pathways are no longer needed, climate impacts are taking a heavy toll on society.
Moreover, the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.
This is because greenhouse gas emissions are only a first step in estimating the impacts of climate change.
The second step is converting emissions to changes in the climate at both the global and local levels – or hazards. This includes heatwaves, flash floods and droughts.
The third step is to determine how changes in the hazards will affect local populations. This can be determined by calculating people’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards.
Substantial uncertainty persists at every stage of this sequence.
For example, scientists do not know exactly how the global climate will react to ever-rising greenhouse gas emissions – nor the extent to which global temperature increases will drive local climate hazards. We also do not know how climate change at a local level impacts human health outcomes.
Managing the future of heat risk
Almost all heat-related deaths are preventable.
Adaptation options, such as air conditioning, heat action plans and social support for isolated people, will be crucial as the climate moves away from the typical conditions that people are used to.
Our previous research showed that France made a lot of progress reducing heat-related mortality after the deadly 2003 summer heatwave by taking many of these actions.
Adaptation can reduce deaths, but it cannot eliminate the risk created by continued warming.
Without a move away from fossil fuels, future heatwaves will keep testing the limits of public health systems and more people will die.
The post Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths
Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline
Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole
Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths
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