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CORSIA Carbon Credit Demand To Be 14x Larger Than Supply

The surplus of CORSIA-eligible carbon credits is projected to turn negative by 2030 unless new supplies become available, according to an analysis by Abatable.

Currently, the aviation sector contributes about 3% of global emissions. As a sector that’s difficult to decarbonize, it’s exploring direct low-carbon technological solutions like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and electrification. However, these solutions face cost and technological hurdles and will take time to become widespread.

The Challenge of Decarbonizing Aviation

To mitigate emissions in the meantime, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) launched the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) in 2016. CORSIA aims to offset any growth in aviation emissions above 85% of 2019 levels.

CORSIA entered its first phase in January this year, after a pilot period from 2021 to 2023. Phase 1, which runs from 2024 to 2026, is voluntary for participating states, while Phase 2 will be mandatory starting in 2027.

  • To comply, airlines can purchase SAF, enhance fleet efficiency, or buy CORSIA-eligible carbon credits.

However, the rollout has been challenging. In March, major carbon credit issuers Verra, Gold Standard, and Climate Action Reserve (CAR) were only conditionally approved by ICAO’s Technical Advisory Body. This status will be reconsidered in September following a resubmission process completed in April 2024.

Currently, CORSIA Phase 1 credits can only be acquired through the American Carbon Registry (ACR) and ART TREES standards. Additionally, CORSIA credits require Letters of Authorization from host countries, further limiting the supply.

As of now, the only recent issuance eligible for the scheme is 7.1 million Guyana ART credits. The ICAO Technical Advisory Body’s decision suggests that this limited supply situation may persist throughout 2024.

Demand to Outpace Supply by 2030

Abatable’s analysis indicates that, under current market conditions and without new supplies, demand for CORSIA credits will exceed supply by 2030. In Phase 2 of the scheme, demand is projected to outpace supply between 2029 and 2030.

In a conservative scenario, CORSIA demand does not exceed 100 million credits until after 2034. However, supply peaks in 2025 and can only meet demand until 2029. Without new projects, demand in Phase 2 could be 14x  larger than supply.

CORSIA carbon credit demand, supply, conservative scenario

In an optimistic scenario, aviation emissions return to 85% of 2019 levels this year, with CORSIA demand surpassing 100 million carbon credits in 2027. Supply, bolstered by projects likely to receive corresponding adjustments, meets demand until 2030. Without new projects, demand in Phase 2 could be 7x larger than supply.

CORSIA demand, supply, optimistic scenario

Abatable’s projections include existing projects expected to meet the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s Core Carbon Principles and likely to receive corresponding adjustments. Supply from Verra, Gold Standard, and CAR is expected from 2025.

CORSIA’s design interfaces with the Paris Agreement’s Article 6, allowing countries to trade emissions reductions to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Corresponding adjustments ensure accurate progress toward NDCs and prevent double counting. These adjustments are required for CORSIA credits, allowing them to be transferred internationally.

However, delays in implementing Article 6 mechanisms could affect CORSIA. While details are being developed, projects receiving Letters of Authorization can list on voluntary market registries as Article 6 compliant. Biennial UN reports will confirm national accounting and the application of corresponding adjustments.

A significant challenge is the liability for the revocation of authorized credits. ICAO’s Technical Advisory Body suggests that standards or project proponents should assume liability, while standards argue it should lie with the revoking country. COP29 decisions may influence this issue, potentially causing even more delays.

Market Response and Developments

The market is reacting to these developments. New commercial structures and carbon insurance products are under conception to mitigate risks and encourage trading activity. These products aim to provide confidence to market participants and enhance liquidity, especially given the current market uncertainties.

So, what’s next for this development in CORSIA carbon credits?

Verra, Gold Standard, and CAR have re-submitted their applications, and the Technical Advisory Board will reassess these in September 2024. If they fail, new supply sources will be delayed until 2025, extending beyond current projections.

To mitigate supply issues, standards should work toward approval while also building capacity to help countries develop market infrastructure and governance for authorizing credits with corresponding adjustments. Large CORSIA participants might invest in upstream projects, although this would require market understanding and time to generate a credit stream and gain necessary adjustments.

Airlines are not required to purchase credits until Phase 1 concludes in January 2028. However, some may buy and retire credits in advance, based on projected obligations from historical emissions data. Final emissions reports and audits will be completed in 2027, indicating that the total credits needed, leading to an increase in credit retirements.

The availability of credits post-2027 will depend on decisions by ICAO, Article 6 negotiators, and governments, as well as the emergence of new supply sources. The actions taken in the interim will be crucial for ensuring there are enough carbon credits to meet future demand.

The future of the CORSIA carbon credit market hinges on increasing the supply of eligible credits. Abatable’s analysis underscores the need for new projects and corresponding adjustments to meet the rising demand by 2030. While pursuing low-carbon technologies, the aviation sector must rely on carbon offsets in the interim. 

The post CORSIA Carbon Credit Demand To Be 14x Larger Than Supply appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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