Decarbonization efforts, aiming for Net Zero emissions, require significant changes in the energy sector. This transition requires shifting from fossil fuels to metals and critical minerals like cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earths.
The critical minerals market will grow 7-fold by 2030, and 10-fold by 2050 to over $400 billion, per the International Energy Agency estimates. Cobalt, in particular, has a central role in reaching the global net zero target.
Cobalt prices have plummeted to pre-2021 levels since the beginning of the year, with analysts predicting a continued decline. As of April 8, the London Metal Exchange cobalt cash price stands at $28,400 per metric ton, marking a 65.3% drop from the 2022 high of $81,900/t in March,
This decline is attributed to the lack of expected demand from the electric vehicle sector, which has also affected demand growth in aerospace and consumer electronics.
The oversupply of cobalt in the market is exacerbated by increased output from producers in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Chinese production has also surged, further pressuring prices. Forecasts indicate that the cobalt market will remain oversupplied by 4,000 metric tons this year and in the forthcoming years.
Balancing Supply and Demand
Despite the price reaction to excess cobalt, producers are unlikely to cut output significantly. Cobalt production is tied to the dynamics and production costs of the copper and nickel industries, both of which continue to see robust output. While some high-cost cobalt producers may reduce output, low-cost producers are expanding production.
The IEA predicts a substantial increase in cobalt demand, with growth projected to be 5x higher between 2020 and 2040 under its Sustainable Development Scenario.
The expected dramatic growth in cobalt demand underscores the need for increased production, with the IEA forecasting a 3-fold increase by 2030. This growth trajectory calls for the development of new mines and deposits to meet sustainability goals and mitigate supply risks.
The agency also predicts that as early as 2030, mines will produce only 50% of the cobalt and lithium and 80% of copper required for the energy transition.
The High Stakes of Cobalt Mining
The pressure on the cobalt supply chain is already evident. This is especially considering that the Democratic Republic of Congo supplies about 70% of the world’s cobalt. This raises concerns about reliance on a single source with questionable environmental, social, and governance (ESG) credentials.

This heavy reliance on a single source also poses significant supply chain risks, as evidenced by recent challenges in the European natural gas market.
Apart from supply concentration, cobalt mining practices and related issues in the DRC raise concerns for investors. These include environmental degradation, human rights violations, and governance challenges. As a result, investors are increasingly seeking alternative cobalt sources that offer greater transparency and sustainability.
The cobalt mining industry also exhibits a degree of concentration, with the top four mining companies contributing over 40% of global production. Glencore, a diversified mining and trading company, stands out as the largest producer, accounting for over 15% of total production. Interestingly, many of these major mining companies are located in emerging markets.

However, there are challenges associated with assessing the ESG performance of these companies, particularly those that are privately held. Vale, despite having the lowest cobalt production among the top five companies, boasts the highest ESG rating of C+.
Australia and Canada are notable for their substantial cobalt reserves of critical minerals and relatively strong ESG ratings. These countries offer opportunities to diversify the global production mix of critical minerals.
While the DRC remains a dominant cobalt supplier, there are alternative sources available, although they may not be as abundant. Exploring these alternative supply options is crucial for mitigating supply chain risks and ensuring responsible cobalt sourcing practices.
Investing in Cobalt for a Greener Future
In response to the risks posed by concentration and ESG concerns in cobalt production, stakeholders, including investors and active asset owners, can play a significant role. They can advocate for greater transparency across the cobalt supply chain, incentivize sustainable practices through capital allocation, and engage with companies to improve their ESG performance.
Additionally, investors may explore opportunities to support projects in jurisdictions with stronger regulatory frameworks and environmental protections. There are tools available to assist investors in navigating these challenges and pursuing responsible investment opportunities.
Although the bottom for cobalt prices is uncertain, some analysts anticipate a gradual improvement in prices over the next few quarters. However, the market remains volatile, and the trajectory of cobalt prices will depend on various factors. These particularly include demand trends and production dynamics in related industries.
In summary, as the world moves towards Net Zero emissions, the critical role of cobalt in the energy transition highlights the importance of sustainable and diversified supply chains to meet increasing demand while addressing ESG concerns.
The post Cobalt Crunch: Prices Plummet, Supply Challenges Loom in the Race to Net Zero appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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