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根据全球能源监测组织(GEM)的最新年度报告,2023年中国煤电建设活动占全球新建煤电活动的95%。

GEM的全球煤电行业年度报告称,中国有70吉瓦(GW)的煤电装机容量破土动工,相较2019年增长了四倍。

相比之下,世界其他地区新开工煤电装机容量不足4吉瓦,是2014年以来的最低水平。

除中国外,只有32个国家有处于拟建阶段的新建煤电项目,只有七个国家有在建电厂。

虽然2023年全球煤电装机容量(包括总装机容量和中国以外地区的装机容量)有所增长,但GEM表示,这很可能只是“昙花一现”,随着未来几年美国和欧洲加速煤炭退役,这一增长将会被抵消。

该报告的其他主要发现包括:全球燃煤电厂——中国以外地区——建设连续第二年下降。然而,全球煤电厂的退役率也处于2011年以来的最低水平。

中国的“关键时刻”

GEM表示,2023年中国有47.4吉瓦的煤电装机容量投产。这一增量占全球在运煤电装机容量增长的三分之二,全球装机容量整体增长了2%,达到2130吉瓦。

2023年,中国有70.2吉瓦的新建项目开工,是世界其他国家,合计3.7吉瓦,的19倍。如下图所示,中国的发展轨迹(红线)与世界其他地区(橙色线)存在显著差异。

中国的新开工装机容量几乎是2019年的四倍,彼时中国的新建燃煤电厂开工量创下了九年来的新低。

New coal capacity starting construction shown in GW for China (red line) and the rest of the world (orange line).

这是中国每年开工建设的新燃煤电厂装机容量连续第四年增长。GEM指出,这与中国在2021年提出的“严控”新增煤电产能的承诺不符。

2022年初,中国国家能源局的《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》指出,到2025年将淘汰30吉瓦的煤电产能。

然而,GEM指出,如果算上发电装机容量至少达到30兆瓦(megawatts)的大型煤电机组,过去三年中关停的电厂不到9吉瓦,而且几乎没有其他电厂有退役计划。

GEM补充说,如果中国要实现30吉瓦的退役目标,“就必须立即采取行动”。

能源与清洁空气研究中心(CREA)中国分析师秦琦在一份声明中说:“最近中国煤电开发的激增与全球趋势形成了鲜明对比,使中国2025年的气候目标面临风险。在此关键时刻,中国必须对煤电项目实施更严格的控制,并加快向可再生能源转型,以重新履行其气候承诺。”

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根据GEM的报告,中国、印度、孟加拉国、津巴布韦、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦、老挝、土耳其、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和越南共占全球拟建容量的95%。

该组织发现,剩下的5%分布在21个国家。报告补充称,其中11个国家仅有一个拟建项目,有望实现“无新煤电”这一退煤里程碑。

GEM追踪器显示,2023年,位于中国之外、全新规划的煤电项目装机容量达到20.9吉瓦。其中,印度新规划煤电装机容量达到11.4吉瓦,超过了2016年以来的任何一年。GEM解释说,这在一定程度上是由于该国几个停滞项目的重新启用。

哈萨克斯坦也有4.6吉瓦的新规划项目,印度尼西亚则有2.5吉瓦。另外还有4.1吉瓦之前被暂停或取消、但在去年被重新“规划”的项目。

另有几个国家——俄罗斯、菲律宾、博茨瓦纳和尼日利亚——也在2023年有项目重新规划和开工。

退役速度缓慢

GEM发现,2023年全球共有69.5吉瓦的煤电投产,同时有21.1吉瓦的煤电退役。这使得全球煤电在运装机容量的净增长达到自2016年以来的最高水平,猛增了48.4吉瓦。

此外,印度尼西亚(5.9吉瓦)、印度(5.5吉瓦)、越南(2.6吉瓦)、日本(2.5吉瓦)、孟加拉国(1.9吉瓦)、巴基斯坦(1.7吉瓦)、韩国(1吉瓦)、希腊(0.7吉瓦)和津巴布韦(0.3吉瓦)也有新增装机容量投产。

该组织发现,在2023年间,中国境外总共有22.1吉瓦装机容量投产,17.4吉瓦退役。这使得在中国以外运营的全球煤电机组净增加了4.7吉瓦。2023年,全球煤电装机容量达到2130吉瓦,比上年增长2%。

GEM表示,美国贡献了近一半的退役煤电机组装机容量,2023年有9.7吉瓦被关闭。不过,与2022年的14.7吉瓦和2015年的21.7吉瓦的峰值相比,退役量有所下降。

在其他地区,欧盟和英国的煤电机组退役量接近四分之一,其中英国有3.1吉瓦退役,意大利有0.6吉瓦退役,波兰有0.5吉瓦退役。目前,英国只有一家燃煤电厂在运营,这个位于索尔河畔拉特克利夫(Ratcliffe-on-Soar)的电厂计划于2024年9月关闭。

总体而言,全球退役的煤电装机容量处于2011年以来的最低水平,如下图所示。

Coal-fired power station capacity annual retirements in GW, shown globally, in the US, the EU27 and UK, China and other. Black

GEM指出,中国以外地区新开工建设的煤电项目规模连续第二年下降,创下(该机构)自2015年收集数据以来的最低水平。

2023年,中国以外地区新开工建设的项目不到4吉瓦,远低于2015年至2022年16吉瓦的平均水平。仅有七个国家有新项目破土动工,其中印度、老挝、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯各有一座电厂,印度尼西亚有三座电厂。

GEM表示,自2016年以来,拉丁美洲没有任何燃煤电厂开工建设,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、欧洲或中东国家自2019年以来也没有任何燃煤电厂破土动工。

报告称,尼日利亚乌格博巴(Ugboba)发电站是自2019年以来非洲已知的首个煤电建设项目,该发电站位于三角洲州阿尼奥查北地区的伊多乌法洛拉煤矿(Idowu Falola Coal Mines)矿口。

七国集团(G7)目前占全球在运煤电装机容量的15%(310吉瓦),低于2015年的32%(443吉瓦)。该集团成员国已没有任何在建煤电项目。不过,日本和美国仍分别有一个和两个新煤电项目提案。

美国的两个新煤电项目提案,即宾夕法尼亚州0.4吉瓦的CONSOL项目和阿拉斯加州新宣布的0.4吉瓦的苏西特纳(Susitna)电站,预计都将采用碳捕集与封存技术(CCS)。

GEM表示,这些技术“具有很强的不确定性。相比退煤的迫切需求,它们是一个昂贵的转移注意力的方式”。

二十国集团(G20)拥有全球92%的在运煤电装机容量(1968吉瓦),其拟建的煤电装机容量总和占全球总量的88%(336吉瓦)。

现任G20轮值主席国巴西的拟建装机容量在2023年下降,但仍有两个正在推进的项目,它们也是拉丁美洲最后的拟建煤电项目。

“无新煤电”国家

GEM追踪器显示,总体而言,2023年的全球煤电装机容量达到了历史新高。

如下图所示,由于2023年退役的煤电装机容量为十多年来最低,中国以外的在运煤电装机容量自2019年以来首次出现增长。

Annual operating coal capacity globally in GW, showing coal added (brown/orange bars) and retired (green bars).

自2015年以来,全球在运的煤电装机容量增长了11%。当年,《巴黎协定》使各国政府同意将全球平均温度保持在工业化前水平以上低于2℃之内,并将气温上升限制在工业化前水平以上1.5°C以内。

中国以外,正在建设的煤电装机总量达到113吉瓦。GEM表示,尽管这一数字仅比上一年的110吉瓦略有上升,但仍凸显出煤炭行业不符合国际能源署(IEA)对如何把气候控制在1.5°C以内情景的预测。

在IEA做出的所有符合国际气候目标的情景中,全球炭排放量都应在迅速下降。

GEM报告称,2023年全球拟建装机容量增长了6%,“这明确了呼吁停止规划和开工建设煤电厂的重要性”。

报告还补充称,目前在运的煤电装机容量中,只有15%(317吉瓦)承诺将按照《巴黎协定》的目标退役。

GEM指出,根据国际能源署提出的1.5°C路径,如果要在2040年前淘汰未减排的燃煤发电量,就需要在未来17年内平均每年淘汰126吉瓦的煤电装机容量。这相当于每周淘汰两座煤电厂。

GEM表示,如果把拟建和在建的578吉瓦项目计算在内,则需要更大幅度的削减。

有12个新国家加入了“助力淘汰煤炭联盟”(Powering Past coal Alliance),承诺在2023年不再开发新的煤电项目。GEM指出,总共有101个国家或已正式作出了“无新煤电”的承诺,或已在过去十年里放弃了任何新煤电建造。

GEM发现,自2015年以来,全球拟建装机容量减少了68%。目前,除中国外,新开工项目处于该数据开始收集以来的最低水平。

GEM的报告认为,新煤电建设提议的“最后阵地”是利用碳捕集与封存技术、以及将煤电用于工业活动。(碳捕集与封存技术,CCS,可减少燃煤产生的温室气体进入大气)

例如,津巴布韦在2023年规划了1.9吉瓦的新建煤电装机容量,其包括两个项目“声望”(Prestige)发电站和格韦鲁(Gweru)发电站,旨在为铬冶炼厂提供电力。

除中国和印度外,津巴布韦是去年新增总规划装机容量的六个国家之一,其他国家包括哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯、美国和菲律宾。

在COP28气候峰会上,130国签署了《全球可再生能源和能源效率承诺》,表示有意在2030年前逐步淘汰未减排的煤电,并停止投资未减排的新建燃煤电厂。

此外,COP28的最终“全球盘点”(Global Stocktake)协议重申了COP26大会关于逐步减少未减排的煤电的承诺,但仍未定义“未减排”(Unabated)的含义。此外,早期草案中关于停止核准新煤电项目的措辞在最终文本中被省略。

GEM报告指出:“煤电正处于悬崖边缘,面临着政治和民间的反对,经济上也越来越缺乏竞争力。”

GEM煤炭项目主任弗洛拉·尚普努瓦(Flora Champenois)在一份声明中说:“今年煤炭的变化趋势反常,因为所有迹象都表明,煤炭将从加速扩张的趋势中逆转。但是,那些要淘汰燃煤电厂的国家需要加快步伐,而那些计划新建燃煤电厂的国家必须确保这些电厂永远不会建成。否则,我们就别想实现《巴黎协定》的目标,也别想享有迅速过渡到清洁能源所带来的好处。”

The post 报告: 2023年中国新建煤电项目占全球的95% appeared first on Carbon Brief.

报告: 2023年中国新建煤电项目占全球的95%

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New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

        The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry  appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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        Climate Change

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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        SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.

        The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.

        An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.

        Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.

        Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.

        “The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

        “The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”

        Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.

        “The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.

        “The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”

        After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.

        Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.

        “Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”

        -ENDS-

        Media contact

        Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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