Donald Trump’s designs on Venezuela and Greenland have sent shock waves around the world. Canadian premier Mark Carney said they have created a “rupture in the world order”, as political alliances that have held for over 80 years are thrown aside.
And as the US seeks to carve out a Western Hemispheric sphere of influence, questions about the dollar’s future as the lynchpin of the global economy are growing louder. Many other parts of the world are switching to green energy sources as renewable energy becomes cheaper than fossil fuels, and countries forced to pay back loans in dollars are eyeing alternative currency options to free themselves from the penalty of fluctuating exchange rates amid unpredictable policy shifts.
As a result, the continued relevance of the petrodollar system – in which oil is traded in dollars and guarantees demand for US currency – may be less than assured.
What is the petrodollar system?
The petrodollar system was established in the 1970s following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and is one of the most consequential monetary arrangements in modern history.
In 1944, the Bretton Woods agreement made the US dollar the anchor of the global monetary system, pegged to gold and with other currencies fixed to the dollar. The framework aimed to provide global financial stability following the economic fragmentation of the Second World War and cemented the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
US President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971 to curb inflation after foreign central banks – increasingly reluctant to hold depreciating dollars – began converting their dollar reserves into gold. The petrodollar system emerged as an alternative means of keeping the dollar as the backbone of international transactions.
The petrodollar system refers to the pact that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – made with the US, agreeing to price oil in dollars and to recycle revenues into US Treasury securities in return for military protection and sales of advanced weaponry.
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Andrés Arauz, former Ecuadorian minister and central bank director, told Green Central Banking that ramifications for the global economy were immense: “So oil and gas [are traded in dollars], but then also downstream with all the derivatives, but then also all the chemical elements derived from the oil industry and petrochemical industry. And then likewise, upstream with all the technology and inputs required to extract the oil, [it] created a dollar-denominated value chain with global and international repercussions.”
Arauz also notes that international accounting standards set by institutions like the IMF reinforce the system by requiring central banks and organisations to report reserves in dollars, solidifying the greenback as the default unit of account.
For decades, this system delivered guaranteed demand for dollars, recycled oil revenues into safe-haven US debt markets, and provided outsized geopolitical leverage to the US Federal Reserve given the need of other countries to accumulate dollars to conduct global transactions.
Fadhel Kaboub, associate professor in economics at Denison University, explains how this “exorbitant privilege” distorted the global economy in the US’s favour. “All countries operate … within a system where they have to accumulate reserves not in gold anymore but in dollars and countries that have debt, their debt is denominated in dollars. So that created a locked-in system that gives the US dollar a privilege as the dominant payment system and gives the opportunity to weaponise this system.”
The petrodollar system has also encouraged and amplified US consumption of fossil fuels and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Kaboub, who is also a member of the United Nations High-Level Advisory Board on Economic and Social Affairs, says the system has “rewired” the global economy into an extractive model that promotes environmentally destructive industries.
But as decarbonisation accelerates and renewable energy displaces fossil fuel value chains, the petro-lynchpin of dollar dominance faces unprecedented strain.
Is the petrodollar in decline?
Signs of discontent are increasing, placing the dollar’s decades-long dominance under unprecedented pressure.
BRICS countries are discussing new financial mechanisms that will make trading within the bloc easier but may also reduce reliance on existing dollar-dominated channels. Both India and Brazil have denied that linking BRICS digital currencies is part of moves towards de-dollarisation, but such a move will likely cause concern in the US.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made headlines in May 2025 with her blunt assessment that the current global landscape presents a significant opportunity for a “global euro moment”, as investors “unsettled by unpredictable US economic strategies” increasingly reduce their exposure to dollar-denominated assets.
These developments reflect deeper structural shifts. The dollar’s share of global reserves has declined from 71% to 56.3% since 2008, with central banks purchasing over 1,000 metric tons of gold annually for three consecutive years. China slashed its US Treasury holdings from US$1.3tn in 2013 to just $682bn by November 2025, while simultaneously expanding yuan-based trade across Asia.
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This shift was triggered by what Arauz describes as “eroding trust” in US financial systems.
“Perhaps the most serious element that has accelerated this diversification has been the weaponisation of the hegemonic banking system,” Arauz said. “[Through] sanctions, through asset freezes, through confiscation of international reserves in many countries … [these] have definitely stirred things up and made countries reflect about the reliance on this previously thought of neutral system that is now, on the other hand a threat, to their national sovereignty and economic policies.”
The climate crisis is also acting as a catalyst. As the world transitions away from fossil fuels, structural strain is placed on the demand for dollars, and the more the US clings to fossil fuel dependency in order to maintain monetary dominance, the deeper the cracks become.
Gulf states have long-term plans to diversify away from oil and reinvest a substantial portion of their oil revenues in green value chains, challenging the core pact which upholds the petrodollar system that US currency dominance has long depended on.
And while economists expect the dollar to remain the primary reserve currency in the near term, it has also been noted that once transitions to a new system are underway, they can happen very quickly. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Jeffry Frieden, political science professor at Columbia University, warned of “an erosion of confidence in the dollar” amid mounting doubts about the safety of US Treasuries as “the most important financial asset in the world”.
‘US pulling itself out of the picture’
The Trump administration’s response to a shift away from the dollar has been to double down on arms sales and fossil fuel infrastructure – what Kaboub calls a “long-term strategic failure” that fundamentally misreads the changing dynamics of global power.
Trump’s recent $142bn arms deal with Saudi Arabia aims to tether Gulf revenues to the dollar through military exports. However, economists like Maya Senussi at Oxford Economics and John Sfakianakis of the Gulf Research Centre warn that financing such deals alongside decarbonisation projects will strain GCC budgets, and Bloomberg estimates it will require oil prices to be at least $96 a barrel just to break even. Brent oil prices currently hover around $67-68.
And in the Global South, higher oil prices may inadvertently threaten dollar dominance by exacerbating debt burdens by increasing repayment costs, pushing countries towards cheaper (and greener) energy systems. America’s transition to net fossil fuel exporter status means higher oil prices now strengthen rather than weaken the dollar, creating a triple blow for dollar-indebted countries in Latin America and Africa: higher energy costs, escalating debt servicing and constrained fiscal space.
The very mechanism designed to strengthen dollar ties – expensive arms deals premised on elevated oil prices – accelerates the search for alternatives among countries holding critical transition minerals like lithium, copper and cobalt. This pushes the US further from the green value chains of the future.
“The US is pulling itself out of the picture, it’s divesting from the green technologies and green industries. Which means it’s moving away from its interest in critical minerals,” says Kaboub. “So the remaining big player is China, and it’s a friend of the Global South.”
Today, China controls 85-90% of global rare earth processing and offers renewable energy equipment that remains attractive to the GCC despite US and EU tariffs. This is thanks to competitive pricing and comprehensive infrastructure approaches that western competitors have largely failed to match.
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Kaboub says that Trump’s minerals-for-security deals, such as in Greenland and elsewhere, may secure short-term market access but erode global trust in US foreign policy, a cornerstone of confidence in the dollar. “The isolated backwards technology bloc is going to be the United States,” he says.
As Lagarde observed, investors increasingly seek “geopolitical assurance in another form” by directing investments toward regions perceived as “dependable security allies” – but this no longer automatically defaults to the US as its government criticises its one-time allies and jeopardises the future of NATO.
Yet the petrodollar system faces challenges that extend far beyond the geopolitics of sanctions; climate change has introduced structural pressures making the core foundations of dollar dominance increasingly untenable.
However, given Trump’s bellicose stance on Venezuela and Greenland, there is a risk that American policymakers will not recognise this new reality until it is too late.
This article was originally published by Green Central Banking.
The post Explainer: What is the petrodollar and why is it under pressure? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Explainer: What is the petrodollar and why is it under pressure?
The European Union’s plan to use international carbon credits to help meet its 2040 climate target could provide a “super solution” to accelerate the rollout of cleaner cooking technologies across the Global South, according to France’s top climate envoy .
With the bloc set to become a “big investor” in carbon credits as a result of its new climate law, efforts to replace polluting cooking stoves with cleaner alternatives could be scaled up, French climate ambassador Benoît Faraco told a summit on clean cooking hosted by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Faraco said he had discussed that possibility with French fossil fuel giant TotalEnergies, which is involved in clean cooking offsetting programmes in Africa and has major plans to expand the adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for use in cookstoves in developing countries.
Controversial carbon credits
Starting in 2036, the EU will be allowed to count “high-quality” international carbon credits generated by partner countries under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement towards up to 5% of the emissions reductions required to meet its 2040 target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. Several climate experts and activists accused the bloc of watering down its commitments by including carbon credits in its climate target for the first time.
The amended climate law adopted in early February says the credits will need to follow “robust safeguards” and “ensure environmental integrity”. The European Commission and its member states have yet to determine which types of credits would qualify or how they would be sourced.
But a French diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Climate Home News that clean cooking should be considered among the sectors to be supported through Article 6 funding, adding that France was willing to engage with its partners on the topic.
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Clean cooking credits have regularly faced significant criticism from researchers and campaigners who argue that climate benefits are often exaggerated and weak monitoring can undermine claims of real emission reductions.
“There is a significant risk in trading credits that have repeatedly failed to deliver on their promises, which has been a particular issue with cookstove projects,” said Benja Faecks, an expert at Brussels-based NGO Carbon Market Watch (CMW), adding that it was “far too early” for France to make recommendations on specific credit types.
The French diplomatic source told Climate Home News that France will continue to advocate for the EU to forge partnerships with countries to develop a high-quality carbon credits supply chain.
Total’s cooking gas expansion
Speaking at the IEA summit held in Paris late last month, Faraco said he had discussed the use of carbon credits to fund clean cooking initiatives with TotalEnergies a few days earlier when he joined the French multinational on a visit to deliver LPG cooking units.
TotalEnergies says it is investing over $400 million in LPG infrastructure – including canister storage and filling stations – to give 100 million people in Africa and India access to cleaner cooking alternatives to wood and charcoal.
But while the company promotes the programme as a win for public health and the climate, it also stands to benefit commercially: the rollout would create a vast new market to absorb the growing volumes of oil and gas the company wants to produce across Africa.
In Uganda, where TotalEnergies is leading the development of a major and controversial oil drilling project on the shores of Lake Albert, the French firm says it also provides “affordable” LPG cooking solutions to local communities aiming to avoid “critical deforestation”.
Campaigners have said that gas is not clean nor affordable and pushing its adoption for cooking would lock vulnerable communities into a fossil fuel system. Faecks from CMW said the distribution of LPG cookstoves “very much suits Total’s interests”.
TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Major carbon market player
The French company has long been involved in carbon markets and, in 2025, spent $73 million to buy carbon credits used to offset, on paper, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by its oil and gas operations.
Last year, it announced that it had partnered with a carbon credit developer to distribute 200,000 cookstoves to households in Rwanda that it said would prevent the emission of more than 2.5 million tons of carbon dioxide over the next 10 years. TotalEnergies will acquire the credits produced by the project and use them from 2030 to offset some of its direct emissions.
“Clean cooking contributes to long-term social, economic and human development in a more sustainable way,” Arnaud Le Foll, senior vice-president new business and carbon neutrality at TotalEnergies, said at the time.
The post EU carbon credits could supercharge world’s clean cooking push, France says appeared first on Climate Home News.
EU carbon credits could supercharge world’s clean cooking push, France says
For tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, the answer to the rocketing energy needs of artificial intelligence (AI) data centres is to launch them into space, where they could tap limitless energy from the sun. But until that happens, the places on Earth where these number-crunching mega-hubs are located face big spikes in electricity demand to run them.
In the US, this has sparked fears of higher energy prices for consumers. To allay those concerns, President Donald Trump will reportedly convene big tech firms this week to sign a pledge to provide or pay for the extra energy supplies they will need as their AI data centres expand.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data centres accounted for 1.5% of electricity demand worldwide in 2024 – a share set to rise to about 3% by 2030. Overall, data centre demand is expected to more than double to about 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) by then, which is slightly above the electricity consumption of Japan today.
AI data centres, where AI models are trained and deployed, put far more strain on power supplies than traditional data centres, which each use between 10 and 25 megawatts (MW). In comparison, demand from a “hyperscale” AI centre can exceed 100 MW at any given time, which if running at full capacity could consume as much electricity in a year as 100,000 households.
Data-centre electricity consumption in household electricity consumption equivalents (million households), 2024
We look at where this power might come from and whether, as some warn, AI is going to blow the world’s efforts to transition away from fossil fuels out of the water.
Why does AI need so much electricity?
AI data centres differ in how they use electric power. In a conventional data centre, data requests from businesses, individuals and other users come in a randomised way, translating into a steady load level on the servers, with relatively little fluctuation in demand.
But in an AI data centre, processors need to go through training or learning periods, using so-called “graphical processing units”. These are synchronised, being started up and switched off at the same time. This translates into “power bursts”, which last just a few seconds, but happen very frequently and concurrently, according to Gerhard Salge, chief technology officer at Hitachi Energy.
“That is a different challenge than just providing the power and the energy for the conventional data centres,” he told journalists at the International Renewable Energy Agency assembly in Abu Dhabi earlier this year.
Here, officials and business executives discussed how to meet those demand peaks, noting they cannot be dealt with just by installing huge batteries as those would wear out quickly.
Martin Pibworth, chief executive of SSE, a Scotland-based energy firm, said AI-led demand will put pressure on the power system, but “the problem we all have is no one really knows the pace and trajectory of that demand lift”. In the UK, the government’s Clean Power Plan will be needed to make sure electricity operators can meet demand from AI and other data centres as more come online, he added.
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In the US, meanwhile, the Trump administration is eager to ensure that communities that are home to data centres, as well as the wider public, do not turn against the industry due to its perceived unfairly high use of energy and water.
Ahead of a meeting scheduled on March 4, where US tech titans are due to sign a pledge on powering their own data centres, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told CNBC: “Under this bold initiative, these massive companies will build, bring, or buy their own power supply for new AI data centres, ensuring that Americans’ electricity bills will not increase as demand grows.”
Will electricity for data centres and AI come from clean or dirty sources of energy?
The answer to this question is key to how countries tackle climate change, as it will affect their energy mix, how electricity is produced and distributed, and therefore the trajectory of their greenhouse gas emissions. Decisions made by governments and businesses will shape how the AI industry powers the technology on which it relies.
Under pro-fossil fuel Trump, the US has walked away from policy support for clean energy, meaning data centre operators can choose their energy sources freely. In January, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) showed the US now has the most gas-fired power capacity in development, surpassing China and accounting for nearly a quarter of the world’s total.
More than one-third of this capacity is set to directly power data centres on-site, in hotspots like Texas, and many more grid-connected gas-fired projects are planned to meet an expected increase in energy demand from AI, GEM said.
On the other hand, some tech companies – especially multinationals – have set goals to cut their emissions to net zero, and so are choosing to power their data centres with renewables, including in the US.
For example, French energy giant TotalEnergies recently signed two long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to deliver 1 gigawatt (GW) of solar capacity for Google’s data centres in Texas. This followed two other PPAs with Google for 1.2 GW secured by Clearway, a California-based renewables company 50%-owned by TotalEnergies.
Sources of global electricity generation for data centres – base case, 2020-2035
Some countries are also moving to ensure the power needed for AI and the data centre industry is produced using clean energy.
In Ireland, an effective ban on new data centre connections was lifted in December, provided at least 80% of the centres’ annual energy demand is met by new renewable electricity sources. The government also plans to build Green Energy Parks, where data centres can be located alongside renewables plants to avoid straining the national grid.
Salge of Hitachi Energy said that with big investors wanting to drive investment in AI data-crunching so fast, “there is no other power generation technology than variable renewables which you can build in such a timeline” of two to three years. “Anything else will be in the 2030s and later,” he added.
Some governments – such as Sweden’s centre-right coalition – have proposed nuclear as a clean energy solution for AI data centres, saying they could fuel a “renaissance”. But building nuclear power plants requires massive investment and long timelines, while new small-scale modular reactors are not yet commercially available.
How are power systems and regulators coping so far?
In a February report forecasting electricity demand out to 2030, the IEA said AI and data centres are contributing to generation growth in advanced economies, which is now accelerating again after 15 years of stagnation. However, it flagged bottlenecks in connecting new data centres, because grids are not being built or improved fast enough to keep up with rising power demand, forcing big customers to wait.
The report noted that at least 150 GW of queued data centre projects are estimated to be in the advanced stages, while one-fifth of the global data centre build-out is at risk of delay due to grid congestion.
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Planning, permitting and completing new grid infrastructure can take five to 15 years, whereas data centres need one to three years. Prices for key grid components have also nearly doubled over the past five years, the IEA noted.
The European Commission, meanwhile, aims to support those operators that can save on energy use. It plans to adopt a “Data Centre Energy Efficiency Package” in April that will contain an assessment of data submitted under a reporting scheme, introduce a rating scheme for data centres in the EU, and start work on minimum performance standards.
Can AI help to resolve the issue?
Experts say it’s important to look at both sides of the coin, pointing to ways in which AI can contribute to more effective power grid management and integration of renewables into national power supplies.
According to new analysis by energy think-tank Ember, AI applications such as short-term renewables forecasting, predictive maintenance, and real-time monitoring and adjustment of transmission line capacity can deliver operational improvements in power systems.
It estimates that AI could enable Southeast Asian nations, for example, to reduce their power sector costs by $45 billion-$67 billion through to 2035, depending on how much renewable energy they deploy. Potential AI-driven efficiency gains could cut emissions by 290 million to 386 million tonnes of CO2 over the next decade in ASEAN countries, it adds.
“While power-hungry AI might initially stress the power systems, with various powerful applications it has the potential to significantly accelerate the energy transition and offset consumed energy rapidly,” Ember data analyst Lam Pham said in a statement.
The post Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition?
A new investigative report released by Greenpeace Southeast Asia, in collaboration with the Uniting Church in Australia, Synod of Victoria and Tasmania, has uncovered disturbing links between suspected forced labour in the Indonesian tuna fishing industry and seafood sold in Australia.
The investigation analysed testimonies from 25 fishers working on 17 Indonesian tuna fishing vessels that supply the Australian market. These vessels supply five Indonesian processing companies, which in turn export to 18 Australian seafood companies, including major brands seen on our supermarket shelves.
The findings raise urgent questions about human rights protections at sea and the integrity of seafood supply chains reaching Australian supermarket shelves.
What the Investigation Found
Fishers interviewed described experiencing multiple internationally recognised indicators of forced labour.
Of the 11 forced labour indicators identified by the International Labour Organisation, the most frequently reported were:
- Abuse of vulnerability (56%)
- Debt bondage (56%)
- Deception (40%)
The report reveals a multi-layered recruitment network in Indonesia that channels vulnerable workers from rural areas into exploitative situations. Labour brokers, known locally as calo, collaborate with vessel administrators and manage recruitment. Fishers reported being lured with promises of high salaries and advance loans, only to be charged illegal and inflated fees for travel, training and documentation.
The investigation also found that labour exploitation at sea is intertwined with environmental crime. Companies allegedly pushed vessels and fishers to engage in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing practices, including shark finning and the deployment of illegal fish aggregating devices.
The link between labour abuse and environmental destruction is not accidental. It reflects an extractive system that externalises both human and ecological costs to sustain profit margins.
Industrial fishing not only exploits vulnerable workers and undermines human rights, it also strips life from our oceans, degrading fragile ecosystems and pushing marine wildlife toward collapse.
What Needs to Happen Now
The report calls for urgent action from both governments and industry.
The Indonesian Government must:
- Enforce decent and effective work at sea policies aligned with international standards.
- Ensure ethical recruitment practices.
- Guarantee fair wages and protections for Indonesian fishers.
The Australian Government must:
- Prohibit seafood products linked to labour exploitation and forced labour from entering Australian markets.
Seafood companies in both countries must:
- Conduct robust human rights and environmental due diligence across their supply chains.
These are not abstract policy fixes. They are necessary steps to prevent modern slavery at sea and to stop environmental crime from being embedded in global seafood trade.
Environmental Justice and Ocean Protection Go Hand in Hand
This investigation highlights something fundamental. Human rights and ocean protection are inseparable.
Environmental justice means the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of everyone in creating a healthy environment. When workers are exploited and forced into dangerous conditions, environmental laws are often ignored too. Abuse at sea and ocean destruction are two sides of the same industrial system.
Destructive industrial fishing methods such as longlining and bottom trawling continue to pillage and industrialise the ocean. They kill wildlife, destroy fragile habitats and undermine the resilience of marine ecosystems.
If we want a thriving ocean, we must protect both the people who work on them and the ecosystems themselves.
Why This Matters for Australia and the Global Ocean Treaty
The Australian Government is on the cusp of ratifying the Global Ocean Treaty, the legal instrument allowing governments to create high seas ocean sanctuaries free from industrial fishing. Once Australia has ratified, it has the critical tool it needs to protect the ocean and safeguard beautiful and endangered species like whales, dolphins and sharks from destructive fishing methods in the high seas.
Vast, robust ocean sanctuaries are a crucial solution to the ocean crisis. These high seas sanctuaries will provide a blue haven where wildlife can rest, recover and thrive. Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling on the Australian government to champion multiple high sea ocean sanctuaries in our region, starting with a first generation ocean sanctuary in the South Tasman Sea between Australia and Aotearoa, free from industrial fishing, whaling and the threat of deep sea mining.
As this investigation shows, the stakes are not only environmental, they are deeply human.
Australia has an opportunity to lead by cleaning up seafood supply chains at home and by championing ambitious ocean protection globally by creating fully protected ocean sanctuaries. Protecting workers’ rights and protecting ocean wildlife must happen together.
https://www.greenpeace.org.au/article/new-investigation-reveals-forced-labour-tied-to-tuna-sold-in-australia/
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