The voluntary carbon market (VCM) enters 2026 with stronger foundations than a year ago. Despite political headwinds in 2025, investment, contracting, and integrity standards advanced.
According to Abatable’s 2026 market report, forward carbon credit contracts rose 58% year-on-year to $5.8 billion in 2025. This surge shows that buyers are locking in future supply rather than relying on spot purchases.
Funding for carbon credit projects reached $15.8 billion in 2025, even after a slowdown in engineered removal investments. Notably, nature-based funding hit a record $9 billion, signaling strong demand for high-integrity supply.
At the same time, compliance markets are reshaping demand patterns. CORSIA, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, is set to create an extra 78 million tonnes of demand by 2026. This is in addition to the 58 million tonnes needed for 2024 emissions.
But the most significant structural shift may come from Japan.
GX-ETS: From Voluntary Signal to Compliance Engine
Japan’s new GX-ETS (Green Transformation Emissions Trading Scheme) becomes mandatory in April 2026. The Asian country emits roughly 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. The GX-ETS will initially cover 500–600 million tonnes annually, more than half of national emissions.
- Between 300 and 400 companies will be regulated under the scheme.
Companies will be allowed to meet up to 10% of their compliance obligations using carbon credits. That creates potential demand of 50–60 million tonnes of credits per year.
For comparison, total voluntary carbon market retirements across major registries were 163 million tonnes in 2025. Japan alone could represent roughly one-third of that volume in compliance-driven demand.
This is not incremental; it is structural.
Convergence in Practice: J-Credits and JCM
Japan’s design shows how compliance and voluntary systems are merging. Companies can use two credit routes under GX-ETS:
- J-Credits – Japan’s domestic carbon credit scheme
- Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) – An Article 6.2 international crediting system with 29 partner countries
J-Credits cover nature-based solutions, renewable energy, and industrial efficiency. Engineered removals such as BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) and DAC(direct air capture) are expected to be added in future phases.
The JCM focuses largely on avoidance projects, including renewable energy and efficiency measures. This structure links Japan’s domestic compliance market directly to international carbon trading under the Paris Agreement. It effectively blends compliance demand with voluntary market infrastructure.
Why This Matters for the VCM: From Optional Offsets to Structured Demand
The voluntary market has long relied on corporate net-zero commitments. Yet, that driver is evolving.
The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) remains the most influential corporate demand-side framework. Its new Corporate Net Zero Standard V2 draft introduces the concept of Ongoing Emissions Responsibility (OER). Companies may be recognized for addressing ongoing emissions using carbon credits.
This shifts the narrative. Credits are no longer seen only as optional compensation tools. They may become structured components of transition plans.
Meanwhile, integrity has become central.
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has approved 40 CCP methodologies across eight programs. CCP-approved methods might create 865 million more credits by 2035. That’s a ninefold rise from current levels.
Even so, CCP-eligible credits are projected to represent only 12.7% of cumulative voluntary supply by 2035. In this context, Japan’s GX-ETS creates guaranteed, regulated demand for credits that meet compliance rules.
This may increase price discipline and quality screening.
Asia Emerges as the Carbon Pricing Growth Hub
Japan is not acting alone. China is expanding its national ETS and moving toward absolute emissions caps. India plans to launch its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme in mid-2026.
Across Asia, carbon pricing systems now cover hundreds of millions of tonnes of emissions. Globally, carbon pricing instruments cover about 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Bank.
Japan’s GX-ETS will become Asia’s second-largest carbon market.
This regional shift is important. Asia makes up a big part of global emissions and industrial output. When compliance systems in big economies allow some use of carbon credits, they connect voluntary methods to formal rules.
Several other Asian countries already run, or are building, carbon pricing systems.
South Korea operates the Korea Emissions Trading System (K-ETS), launched in 2015. It is one of the largest ETS programs in the region. The International Energy Agency reports that K-ETS includes nearly 80% of Korea’s domestic greenhouse gas emissions. It also targets around 800 of the country’s largest emitters.
Singapore uses a national carbon tax instead of an ETS. The National Environment Agency says Singapore raised its carbon tax to S$25 per tonne in 2024 and 2025, and it will rise to S$45 per tonne in 2026 and 2027. Starting in 2024, Singapore allowed companies to offset up to 5% of taxable emissions. They can use eligible international carbon credits for this.
Indonesia has moved into carbon trading through a formal exchange. The Indonesia Stock Exchange’s carbon platform, IDXCarbon, launched in September 2023, after the country’s financial regulator granted the operator a license. Indonesia’s wider system is expected to evolve into a hybrid model that links trading with a carbon tax-style backstop.
Vietnam has also set a clear roadmap. The International Carbon Action Partnership states that Vietnam updated its carbon market rules in June 2025. It also mandated a pilot ETS starting in August 2025. A fully functioning carbon market is expected by 2029.
These programs show how carbon markets are spreading across Asia through different policy designs. Some countries use cap-and-trade systems. Others use carbon taxes with limited credit use. These models can boost cross-border linkages over time. As Article 6 systems grow, buyers will look for credits that fit both voluntary and compliance needs.
Tightening Supply, Rising Quality Premiums
Supply dynamics are also shifting. Following the 2021 issuance peak, the 2025 supply continued to decline. The net surplus of credits fell to Abatable’s 2026 market report, down from 123 million in 2024.
Avoidance projects still dominate supply. Cookstoves, industrial efficiency, renewable energy, and REDD+ accounted for 222 million tonnes, or 83% of supply in 2025.
Notably, forward pricing data show buyers paying premiums for higher-integrity methodologies, especially CCP-approved projects. Meanwhile, engineered removals remain scarce and expensive. Biochar leads in engineered supply offers. Other removal types mainly use forward contracts for trading.
As compliance markets such as GX-ETS and CORSIA expand, demand for eligible units may tighten supply and lift prices. For CORSIA alone, total First Phase demand is projected at 200–220 million tonnes.
Adding potential GX-ETS demand of 50–60 million tonnes per year changes the scale of market expectations.
2026: A Structural Realignment, Compliance and VCM Begin to Merge
The convergence between compliance and voluntary markets is no longer theoretical. Japan’s GX-ETS demonstrates a model where:
- A large national ETS covers over half of emissions
- Companies can use carbon credits for 10% of compliance
- Domestic and international credit systems integrate
- Integrity standards increasingly define eligibility
This integration creates predictable demand. It may also reduce reputational risk for buyers. Credits used in compliance systems face higher scrutiny.
For voluntary buyers, this strengthens signals around quality and durability, while for project developers, it offers more stable forward revenue. For policymakers, it creates flexibility without abandoning emissions caps.
The VCM deployed 55 million tonnes of high-quality credits through Abatable’s platform alone, across more than 200 companies
In 2026, the market looks more institutional. Forward contracting is rising, integrity standards are tightening, and compliance systems are opening to credit use.
Japan’s GX-ETS may prove to be the clearest sign yet that carbon markets are moving toward structured integration. If 2025 was about resilience, 2026 may be about alignment. And Japan is leading that shift.
- READ MORE: The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?
The post 2026 Could Redefine Voluntary and Compliance Carbon Market Convergence, with Japan Leading the Way appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Amazon Expands Its Carbon Credit Strategy with Lower-Carbon Fuel and Superpollutant Solutions
Amazon is expanding the types of carbon credits available to companies through its Sustainability Exchange, helping businesses lower emissions across their operations and supply chains. The e-commerce giant now offers lower-carbon fuel (LCF) inset credits and superpollutant refrigerant destruction credits, giving companies more tools to take meaningful climate action.
The Sustainability Exchange: A Hub for Climate Action
Amazon launched the Sustainability Exchange in 2024 to provide resources, playbooks, and guidance for companies aiming to meet net-zero goals. It shares knowledge on measuring emissions, transitioning to clean energy, decarbonizing operations, and purchasing high-quality carbon credits.
Since its launch, the Exchange has expanded its offerings to support companies at every stage of their climate journey, especially those within Amazon’s supply chain. However, these credits are available only to companies with net-zero targets across Scope 1, 2, and 3, who measure and report emissions regularly and commit to implementing decarbonization strategies aligned with climate science.
The platform now includes a wider variety of carbon credits, making it easier for companies to take action beyond their own facilities.
Lower-Carbon Fuel (LCF) Inset Credits: Decarbonizing Transportation the Smart Way
Transportation is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize. Long-haul trucking, aviation, and maritime shipping often rely on heavy payloads and lack sufficient electrification infrastructure. Thus, lower-carbon fuels provide a practical path to reduce emissions while using existing infrastructure.
How They Work
LCF inset credits help companies support the production of cleaner fuels such as renewable diesel, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 65–80% compared with conventional fossil fuels.
These credits, a type of Environmental Attribute Certificate (EAC), allow companies to claim emission reductions by investing in cleaner fuel production even if they cannot directly use the fuels themselves. For instance, a company operating diesel trucks can purchase renewable diesel inset credits to support cleaner fuel production and receive recognition for the equivalent emissions reductions, enabling transportation decarbonization without changing existing operations.
Amazon’s Approach
Amazon prioritizes efficiency and electrification first, then uses LCFs where access is limited. The company tracks the full life cycle of fuels—from feedstock production to final use—using third-party verification and globally recognized methodologies. Waste-based feedstocks, like used cooking oil and agricultural byproducts, are prioritized for their high emission reduction potential and support for circular economies.
The Advanced and Indirect Mitigation (AIM) Platform helps companies account for and report on insets across sectors. Amazon’s methodology aligns with cross-industry standards while adapting to specific sectors, ensuring that results are accurate and verifiable.
Notably, Crane Worldwide Logistics is one company using Amazon’s LCF credits. Sustainability Director Carlos Pacheco said, “Partnering with Amazon on their carbon insets program helps us drive real reductions in sectors that matter most to our business.”
Superpollutant Refrigerant Destruction Credits: Tackling Methane, HFCs, and Black Carbon
Superpollutants, including methane, HFCs, black carbon, and tropospheric ozone, are significantly more potent than CO₂. Unlike CO₂, which can linger in the atmosphere for centuries, superpollutants last from a few days to around a century, meaning cutting their emissions can produce measurable results within decades.
Millions of tons of refrigerant gases remain in old equipment, materials, or stockpiles. Without intervention, these superpollutants could add billions of tons of CO₂ equivalents to the atmosphere. Reducing these emissions can prevent up to 0.6°C of warming by 2050, according to IPCC scenarios.
How They Work
Now these credits fund the safe destruction of potent greenhouse gases, such as methane and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which trap far more heat than CO₂. By destroying these gases, companies can help slow global warming and achieve measurable climate benefits within decades.
Amazon’s Approach
Amazon sources refrigerants primarily from small businesses in developing countries and avoids large corporate or government stockpiles. Specialized facilities destroy gases using incineration or plasma-arc gasification, converting them into CO₂, water, and inert salts.
Furthermore, refrigerant destruction also helps the ozone layer recover faster, reducing harmful UV radiation, protecting ecosystems, supporting global food production, and benefiting human health.
It credits companies based on modeled leak rates over a maximum 10-year period, ensuring realistic and verifiable climate impact. Projects follow internationally recognized protocols and avoid double-counting emissions reductions.
Building a Robust Carbon Credit Strategy
As we understand now, Amazon’s carbon credit program allows companies to blend neutralization and inset credits, giving them flexibility to tackle Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions while pursuing net-zero targets.
Insetting vs. Offsetting
- Insets: Reduce emissions directly within a company’s own supply chain.
- Offsets: Compensate for emissions by supporting external climate projects.
Neutralizing Remaining Emissions
While cutting emissions within its own operations remains the top priority, Amazon invests in climate mitigation efforts outside its value chain. This includes direct investments, advance purchase agreements, coalition building, new methodology development, and innovative technologies.
Despite its Climate Pledge commitment, its total carbon emissions rose to 68.25 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, a 6% increase from 2023. This growth was driven by data center expansion for AI and fuel use in its delivery fleet.
Amazon mainly uses carbon credits to complement its own emissions reductions. Its focus is on high-quality, science-based removal projects rather than offsetting ongoing emissions.
Key Purchases, Investments, and Strategy Context
The retail giant has committed to buying 250,000 metric tons of direct air capture (DAC) credits from 1PointFive’s STRATOS facility over 10 years starting in 2023. In addition, it sources credits through the LEAF Coalition to help protect Brazilian forests and invests in nature-based projects, such as preventing deforestation and restoring ecosystems.
More recently, Amazon expanded its platform to include lower-carbon fuel inset credits, like renewable diesel, alongside its existing nature- and technology-based removal credits. Early users include companies like Flickr and industries such as real estate and tech consulting.
In simple terms, these credits help Amazon reach its goal of net-zero emissions by 2040 under the Climate Pledge. The main focus is on removing leftover emissions after first improving energy efficiency and using renewable energy. While Amazon does not share the exact yearly volume of credits it buys, every credit is carefully checked for additionality, permanence, and transparency. This ensures credibility and addresses doubts about the voluntary carbon market.
The post Amazon Expands Its Carbon Credit Strategy with Lower-Carbon Fuel and Superpollutant Solutions appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Cameco delivered strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with uranium clearly driving the story. As global nuclear momentum accelerated, utilities increased long-term contracting and focused more on supply security. In this environment, Cameco’s disciplined uranium strategy supported stronger earnings and reinforced its long-term positioning.
Strong Uranium Strategy Boosts Cameco’s Results
Uranium remains the foundation of Cameco’s business. Management continues to match production with long-term contracts instead of chasing short-term spot market gains. By the end of 2025, the company had about 230 million pounds of uranium under long-term contracts, giving it strong revenue visibility for years.
In 2025, uranium segment earnings before income tax increased by $50 million compared to 2024. Adjusted EBITDA rose by $76 million year over year. Although fourth-quarter earnings dipped slightly due to the timing of sales, adjusted EBITDA still improved, showing stronger underlying pricing.
This performance reflects contracts signed in a better uranium price environment. As higher-priced deliveries continue, margins should gradually strengthen.
Fuel Services and Westinghouse Support Solid Gains
- While uranium leads the story, Cameco’s fuel services segment also posted solid gains. Annual earnings before income tax increased by $71 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose by $74 million. Deliveries under contracts signed at improved prices drove the growth.
- Cameco’s investment in Westinghouse Electric Company further strengthens its nuclear exposure. For this segment, the adjusted EBITDA increased 30% compared to 2024. Cameco’s share of adjusted EBITDA rose by $297 million for the full year.
The company also received US$171.5 million from a cash distribution related to the Dukovany reactor expansion project in the Czech Republic. Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant is adding two new reactors, reflecting broader global nuclear expansion.
Although a similar distribution is not expected in 2026, Westinghouse continues to provide stable earnings and long-term value. Still, uranium production and contracting remain Cameco’s primary earnings engine.
Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) Stock Reflects Uranium Momentum
Cameco is trading around $116.50 USD per share, close to multi-year highs. Over the past year, the stock has surged roughly 140%, largely driven by rising uranium prices and renewed nuclear policy support.
Recent trading has shown normal volatility, typical of resource stocks. However, analysts say long-term sentiment remains bullish. They continue to maintain positive ratings, supported by strong uranium fundamentals, improving earnings, and structural growth in nuclear demand.
- CHECK: LIVE URANIUM PRICES
Is Cameco Set to Ride the Nuclear and Uranium Boom?
As nuclear capacity expands globally, uranium demand is expected to rise steadily. However, supply growth remains measured and capital-intensive. This dynamic supports a constructive multi-year uranium cycle.
The International Atomic Energy Agency forecasts that global nuclear capacity could double by 2050, reaching 561–992 gigawatts. This expansion will require a reliable uranium supply for decades.
In 2025, the uranium market strengthened. Governments renewed support for nuclear energy, and utilities increased long-term contracting. Energy security and decarbonization goals made uranium a priority once again.
At the same time, supply remains tight. Secondary uranium sources are shrinking, and new mines face long development timelines, rising costs, and geopolitical risks. This supply-demand gap is pushing long-term uranium prices higher.
- Analysis from Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, shows that uranium revenue across 11 major listed uranium producers could grow from $4.7 billion in 2023 to $14.9 billion by 2033.
- Most of this growth is expected in the second half of the decade, as new mines come online.
Higher production and stronger prices will fuel industry growth. Average uranium prices are expected to rise from $59.6 per pound in 2023 to $98.7 by 2033, with the potential for further increases after that.
Cameco’s disciplined approach positions it well in this environment. The company avoids overproduction, protects its top-tier assets, and maintains financial strength. Rather than chasing volume, it focuses on long-term contracts and sustainable value creation.
Uranium Titans Face Off: Kazatomprom vs. Cameco in 2025
Despite rising interest in new uranium projects, the market remained highly concentrated in 2025. Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom and Cameco continued to dominate both revenue and production.
Consensus forecasts from Visible Alpha estimate Kazatomprom will generate around $3.3 billion in uranium revenue in 2025. In comparison, Cameco is projected to earn roughly $2.1 billion.
Uranium forms the core of both companies’ business models. It accounts for about 91% of Kazatomprom’s revenue and 83% of Cameco’s revenue. Therefore, both miners remain highly sensitive to uranium price movements and contract renewals.
Production and Revenue Show a Clear Divide
In production terms, Kazatomprom is expected to produce 29.1 million pounds of uranium in 2025, while Cameco is forecast to deliver around 21 million pounds. Together, they represent roughly 86% of total output among the seven largest uranium producers.
The comparison highlights Kazatomprom’s scale advantage in both revenue and output. However, Cameco maintains a strong position in Western markets, long-term utility contracts, and strategic supply agreements.
Looking ahead, competition may intensify after 2028. A new wave of uranium miners is projected to significantly expand supply, with total output forecast to rise from 58.5 million pounds in 2025 to 141.2 million pounds by 2033. This shift could gradually reshape the uranium market’s competitive balance.
Overall, with global nuclear expansion underway, uranium will remain a critical energy resource. Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) is strategically placed to benefit from rising uranium demand while navigating market volatility.
The post Uranium Rally Lifts Cameco Stock (CCJ) After Strong 2025 Results appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
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