2024年对中国的能源和气候发展而言是重要的一年。二氧化碳（CO2）排放量增长全年都徘徊在2023年水平附近，这使得中国在2030年前实现碳达峰的可能性增加。
中国可再生能源的快速发展将煤电占比推至历史最低水平，同时全国碳市场覆盖的行业范围也进一步扩大。
在全球层面，中国在阿塞拜疆巴库举办的COP29联合国气候谈判上发挥了重要作用。然而，由于中美贸易关系日趋紧张，此前给全球气候行动带来希望的两国合作受到威胁。
在即将上任的特朗普政府的领导下，美国在气候谈判中的影响力预计将减弱，因此中国在气候雄心方面的表态——例如其计划在2025年发布的国际气候承诺——将成为决定国内外脱碳进程速度的重要因素。
Carbon Brief向10位顶尖专家询问了他们对中国未来一年的期待。他们的回答已经过编辑，以保证简洁明了。
杨木易博士（Dr Muyi Yang）
Ember高级电力政策分析师
2025年，中国需要在保持经济增长与推进脱碳议程之间找到微妙的平衡。要实现这一平衡，不仅需要扩大风能、太阳能和储能等可再生能源的规模，还需要对长期以来在中国能源安全和经济活动中占据核心地位的煤电进行重大转型。
这不仅仅是关闭少数几家燃煤电厂那么简单，而是要处理好煤电生态系统衰退所带来的更广泛的紧张关系和冲突。这些影响将波及电企、物流公司、采矿企业、设备制造商以及煤化工行业，以及围绕它们建立的社会经济体系。
随着中国临近关键的转折点——预计在2026年开始的“十五五规划”内实现煤炭消费的绝对减少——中国现在就需开始为这一转型进行规划。在维护经济稳定、确保能源安全和履行气候承诺的同时，成功驾驭这一复杂过程将是中国在2025年及以后取得成功的关键。
林伯强教授（Prof Boqiang Lin）
中国能源政策研究院院长
2025年，中国能源和气候发展的重点是通过几项关键举措推进“双碳”目标。“新能源”的部署将加速，海上风电、分布式光伏和分散式风电预计将显著增长。新增风电和光伏装机容量预计将至少达到200GW。（去年新增装机超过300GW）。核电将稳步推进，预计到2025年底，核电运行装机容量将达到65GW。同时，促进“煤炭清洁高效利用”工作也将取得进展，更清洁和灵活的煤电系统将继续支持风电和光伏的快速增长。
储能技术和智能电网将进一步扩展，从而促进可再生能源的大规模并网，而虚拟电厂和大规模车网互动试点的发展也将提升电网效率与能源交互能力。电动汽车（EV）配套基础设施将受到更多关注，以支持电动汽车普及率的快速提高。碳市场有望扩大到更多领域，碳价格也将逐步提高。
姚喆（Zhe Yao）
绿色和平东亚分部全球政策顾问
今年将是一个重要的里程碑。作为“十四五规划”的最后一年，我们将看到中国能否回到实现既定能源和碳强度目标的轨道上来。中国未来十年的气候计划（即新的国家自主贡献）也将发布，其雄心也将接受考验。
这也是我们或可确认中国能源消费结构转变的一年，其标志着碳达峰是否到来。这一趋势的关键指标是可再生能源能否满足所有新增电力需求。
一个更为严峻的考验是，气候方面的当务之急能否以及如何应对地缘政治的挑战。中国将面对白宫易主，以及来自欧盟在清洁产业领域日益激烈的竞争，因此中国与其传统气候伙伴之间的关系需要重塑。希望到2025年，新的气候伙伴关系能够适应不断变化的经济和地缘政治环境。
陈志斌（Zhibin Chen）
阿德菲（Adelphi）碳市场与定价高级经理
展望2025年，我认为中国碳市场的发展在几个方面大有可为。其中包括：
- 显著扩大全国碳排放权交易市场（ETS）的覆盖范围，正式纳入钢铁、水泥和铝行业；
- 在自愿碳市场上启动中国核证自愿减排量（CCER）证书的签发、交易和使用，以履行合规义务；
- 转变全国碳排放权交易市场结构，使其从基于（生产单位排放）强度的限额转变为基于总量（以二氧化碳吨数计）的绝对限额；
- 允许交易员和投资者参与全国碳排放权交易市场中的碳排放配额（CEA）交易。
其中，前两点几乎可以确定将在2025年实现，我希望其能顺利实施。后两点已被生态环境部的政策制定者提及，我希望政府能为其制定明确的时间表和实施路线图。
麦怡瑞（Dr Ilaria Mazzocco）
战略与国际研究中心中国商业与经济理事会主席、高级研究员
我关注的是中国如何应对日益紧张的对外商业关系，以及国际上对中国海外直接投资需求的增长。清洁技术——尤其是太阳能、锂电池和电动汽车这“新三样”——处于这些紧张关系的核心。
围绕气候技术制造和贸易未来的全球竞争正在酝酿，而这在很大程度上取决于中国产业的发展，包括国内需求和中国企业的盈利能力。同样重要的是，包括美国在内的中国的贸易伙伴（在未来的对华政策中）将倾向于何种类型的权衡和交易。
陈凯欣（Kyle Chan）
普林斯顿大学博士后研究员
2025年将是中国电动汽车发展的关键一年。中国国内市场的激烈竞争将进一步压低价格，激励先进驾驶辅助系统等功能上的创新，并使中国继续从燃油车向电车过渡。值得关注的是，中国出现的趋势是否会成为全球趋势的先兆，比如增程式（混合动力）电动车的流行和电池更换技术的改进。
在国际市场，中国的电动车和电池制造商正在开拓新市场，并通过在欧洲和东南亚等地大规模投资海外工厂来应对不断上升的贸易壁垒。一个重大问题是，这些投资能否得到回报，或这些市场的电动车需求是否会因当地充电基础设施不足等其他因素而受到制约。另一个关键问题是，其他国家将在多大程度上选择融入中国的电动车供应链，亦或尝试在中国周围建立供应链。
徐安琪博士（Dr Angel Hsu）
北卡罗来纳大学公共政策、环境、生态与能源副教授
我对中美在气候与能源政策上继续开展次国家层面合作的前景充满期待，尤其是两国在COP29上表现出强烈的兴趣。华盛顿州与中国代表团之间的多次技术交流等……都是令人鼓舞的发展。在过去一年所取得进展的基础上，我们已经制定了将这一对话持续到2025年的计划。
我尤其关注第三方国家和地区能否作为中立平台促进合作。例如，随着美国可能退出气候合作，中方与东盟的合作机会显著增加。中国在COP29上的积极行动，尤其是其在自愿气候融资方面的努力，使其有望在支持东南亚国家脱碳方面发挥领导作用，为区域可持续发展创造双赢局面。
弗朗顿·齐耶穆拉博士（Dr Frangton Chiyemura）
英国开放大学国际发展教育讲师
2025年，中国在能源和气候方面的若干发展值得关注。国务院在2024年设定了新目标，标志着中国朝2060年实现碳中和这一更广泛目标迈出重要一步。
这些国内政策正在影响中国的国际投资。我们可以预见，中国将加大在全球南方的小规模可再生能源项目的投资，这反映了其自身在可再生能源发展中的经验。
这一战略还包括加强与富含能源转型所需重要矿产的国家的合作，尤其是非洲国家。2025年1月，中国外长王毅展开了自2013年以来对非洲的第57次访问。他访问了乍得、刚果共和国、纳米比亚和尼日利亚，突显了这一重点，这些国家都拥有丰富的能源转型所需的矿产资源。
总体而言，这些进展表明中国正在全球气候行动和能源转型中，扮演更积极的领导角色。
刘爽（Shuang Liu）
世界资源研究所中国金融项目主任
随着在巴库举行的COP29会议设定了“新气候融资集体量化目标”，中国可通过南南合作，继续支持发展中国家的低碳和韧性转型。我们的研究显示，中国已是气候融资的重要提供者，2013年至2022年间年均提供近45亿美元。
数据显示，疫情后中国在海外的气候融资有所下降，但在过去三年一直在缓慢回升。未来气候融资增长的一个重要驱动力可能是中国及其利益相关方在发展中国家清洁能源转型中的持续投资。最近的一个例子是，在印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prabowo Subianto）去年11月访问北京期间，中国和印尼签署了关于清洁能源生产和基础设施的协议。这类合作有助于能源转型，创造更多就业机会，并有助于全球南方实现其他可持续发展目标。
王珂礼（Dr Christoph Nedopil）
亚格里菲斯大学亚洲研究中心主任、经济学教授
2025年，在伙伴国日益增长的能源转型需求的驱动下，中国在绿色能源领域的参与可能通过“一带一路”倡议进一步发展。例如，印尼总统普拉博沃在2024年12月的G20会议上宣布加速绿色能源计划，并与中国签署新协议，突显了（与中国的）针对性合作在解决本地能源的优先事项方面的作用。这不仅包括对可再生能源的投资，还涉及电池制造等关键技术。
我也希望在以下三方面取得进展：一是加速低碳能源投资的同时逐步减少化石燃料投资；二是让本地员工更多地从绿色能源转型中获益，尤其是在西方对中国绿色科技产品实施更多贸易限制的情况下；三是如何在“一带一路”倡议中加快工业和自备能源的绿色转型。未来几年的一个特别之机是与亚洲其他许多能源国企分享中国国企在电力行业的经验教训。
The post 专家：中国2025年能源与气候行动将有哪些期待？ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Saturday, 17 October 2026
7.18 AM AWST
Hi folks! We’re joining you live from the Rainbow Warrior where we will be providing you with updates as our four activists continue scaling and occupying Woodside’s gas platform. The activists are peacefully protesting against Woodside’s latest gas expansion plans, the Browse project, which would see up to 57 toxic wells drilled at Scott Reef.
“Right now our activists are scaling Woodside’s massive Floating Production Unit. They are scaling the South-East pillar and the underside of the Helideck. They’ll be setting up camp soon and have plenty of provisions with them – so stick around!”
5:45 AM AWST
Our RHIBS are in the water! We’ve deployed our four activists and our ship crew on our small fast boats, headed to the gas platform. We’re carrying crew and equipment, plenty of food, all of our safety climbing gear, some big banners, cameras and a whole lot of heart… someone even has something to read after they get settled in.
5:26 AM AWST
Before sunrise activists prepared to launch RHIBS from the Rainbow Warrior.
Looking for a front seat view?
You can follow along with the Live Rainbow Warrior bow cam here!
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Follow us on Instagram for a peek behind the scenes and hear from our Rainbow Warrior crew.
Live blog: Greenpeace activists occupy Woodside gas project to save Scott Reef
Climate Change
Greenpeace activists climb and occupy Woodside’s Scarborough gas project calling on the Australian government to “Stop Woodside’s Dirty Gas” and “Save Scott Reef”
PERTH, Saturday 17 October 2026 — Four Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists are scaling and occupying a Floating Production Unit at Woodside’s Scarborough gas project off the coast of Western Australia, displaying banners reading: “Stop Woodside’s Dirty Gas. Save Scott Reef.”
- Photos and video available here and here. More will be uploaded throughout the day.
- Content and live updates will be uploaded to a live blog and to Instagram
Early this morning at 05:45 AWST, Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists launched from the Rainbow Warrior, Greenpeace’s flagship vessel, scaling and attaching themselves to a Floating Production Unit (FPU), a key piece of gas processing infrastructure at the Scarborough gas field over 200km off the coast of Exmouth.
Woodside has since confirmed it has initiated a temporary shut down of the FPU.
Greenpeace Australia Pacific is occupying the gas platform in peaceful protest of Woodside’s plans to drill for oil and gas at Scott Reef as part of its Browse proposal.
David Ritter, CEO at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Greenpeace Australia Pacific is taking action today to expose the unacceptable risk to Scott Reef posed by Woodside’s plans.
“Australians love our oceans. Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal would turn the magnificent Scott Reef into an industrial gas zone. Woodside wants to drill up to 57 toxic wells around Scott Reef, Australia’s largest oceanic reef, home to nesting green sea turtles, and endangered species like pygmy blue whales and the dusky sea snake; it is a place like nowhere else on Earth.
“Woodside has an alarming track record of oil spills, incidents and environmental neglect, and can’t be trusted with our oceans. From whaling in Albany in the seventies, to Woodside’s threat to Scott Reef today, there’s more than fifty years of history, of Greenpeace taking action off WA’s coasts to protect our oceans.
“There’s no future in new gas projects. Our future is in secure homegrown renewable energy, green industry and exports, where communities and places like Scott Reef are protected — there’s no future in dirty gas shipped offshore.
“The prospect of drilling for oil or gas on the Great Barrier Reef would be considered absolute madness today, but that is exactly the decision before the government: save Scott Reef or risk its destruction at the hands of a gas corporation.”
From aboard the Floating Production Unit, Dr Chris Holden, Greenpeace Australia Pacific activist said: “As a doctor, when I see new fossil fuel projects like Woodside’s Browse project being put forward, I can’t help but think about the impact this is going to have on the health of our communities and planet, and feel a sense of duty to act.
“Not only will this project do irrevocable harm to nature at Scott Reef, it will have a terrible impact on our climate, putting all of our lives at risk.
“On the Rainbow Warrior I’m carrying a copy of the 2025 Lancet countdown report, which warns that health impacts of climate change are worsening, with millions dying needlessly each year due to fossil fuel dependence, growing emissions, and failure to adequately adapt.
“With warnings like this from the leading global health professionals, our government simply can’t allow fossil fuel projects like Woodside’s Browse project to go ahead. It is their duty to do what is in the best interest of our communities.”
Almost half a million people have signed a petition calling on the government to Save Scott Reef and Woodside’s Browse gas project.
-ENDS-
Notes:
- Dial-in, SimSat and Zoom interviews with Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, currently aboard the Rainbow Warrior, can be organised separately
Media contact:
Greenpeace Australia Pacific media team on +61 406 231 892 or +61 407 581 404
The board of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) will decide on Thursday on whether to “provisionally set aside” $20 million for Nepal to deal with some of the effects of the climate-driven flood it suffered in August.
The motion, seen by Climate Home News, has been drafted by a group of board members from both developed and developing countries and so is likely to pass easily at the fund’s first-ever extraordinary board meeting on October 22.
It invites the government of Nepal to submit a proposal for how to use the money, with the board then deciding at one of its regular board meetings whether to approve the proposal or not.
While Nepali officials have described $20 million as merely “symbolic” in the face of the $4.8 billion estimated costs of recovery and reconstruction, it would be the first time the new FRLD – agreed in 2022 months after devastating floods in Pakistan – has set aside money for a specific disaster.
Until now the fund has only taken requests through a single call for proposals, launched at COP30 in Belém last November, that gave countries six months to submit requests.
Most of the 180 projects the FRLD is currently considering are designed to help countries avoid damage from future climate disasters, for example by strengthening responses to floods in Bangladesh and Lagos.
The draft decision says Nepal’s proposal will serve as a pilot for how funding requests can be submitted outside of the fund’s current timetable. That could let governments seek funds quickly after a climate disaster strikes, rather than waiting for the next call.
This arrangement would set the fund apart from other United Nations funds designed for climate adaptation or cutting emissions like the Green Climate Fund.
Climate campaigners from Fill the Fund said the draft decision is “a real step forward” as it is “the first time this Fund has moved to respond to a specific disaster”.
Too little, too late
The FRLD was agreed by governments at COP27, set up and operationalised at COP28 in 2023 but has yet to award any money. The 180 funding requests it is currently considering would cost around $2.8 billion, but it only has $350 million to allocate.
The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has described the amount of money available in the fund as “ridiculously small” and Fill the Fund said $20 million “is a meaningful signal but it is a drop against an ocean of need”.
A glacial rock and ice collapse sent a torrent of water and debris through Nepal and the Chinese-administered region of Tibet on August 26. It killed more than 1,400 people, left thousands more missing and destroyed homes, bridges, roads and hydropower plants. Nepal’s finance and environment ministers quickl