2024年对中国的能源和气候发展而言是重要的一年。二氧化碳（CO2）排放量增长全年都徘徊在2023年水平附近，这使得中国在2030年前实现碳达峰的可能性增加。
中国可再生能源的快速发展将煤电占比推至历史最低水平，同时全国碳市场覆盖的行业范围也进一步扩大。
在全球层面，中国在阿塞拜疆巴库举办的COP29联合国气候谈判上发挥了重要作用。然而，由于中美贸易关系日趋紧张，此前给全球气候行动带来希望的两国合作受到威胁。
在即将上任的特朗普政府的领导下，美国在气候谈判中的影响力预计将减弱，因此中国在气候雄心方面的表态——例如其计划在2025年发布的国际气候承诺——将成为决定国内外脱碳进程速度的重要因素。
Carbon Brief向10位顶尖专家询问了他们对中国未来一年的期待。他们的回答已经过编辑，以保证简洁明了。
杨木易博士（Dr Muyi Yang）
Ember高级电力政策分析师
2025年，中国需要在保持经济增长与推进脱碳议程之间找到微妙的平衡。要实现这一平衡，不仅需要扩大风能、太阳能和储能等可再生能源的规模，还需要对长期以来在中国能源安全和经济活动中占据核心地位的煤电进行重大转型。
这不仅仅是关闭少数几家燃煤电厂那么简单，而是要处理好煤电生态系统衰退所带来的更广泛的紧张关系和冲突。这些影响将波及电企、物流公司、采矿企业、设备制造商以及煤化工行业，以及围绕它们建立的社会经济体系。
随着中国临近关键的转折点——预计在2026年开始的“十五五规划”内实现煤炭消费的绝对减少——中国现在就需开始为这一转型进行规划。在维护经济稳定、确保能源安全和履行气候承诺的同时，成功驾驭这一复杂过程将是中国在2025年及以后取得成功的关键。
林伯强教授（Prof Boqiang Lin）
中国能源政策研究院院长
2025年，中国能源和气候发展的重点是通过几项关键举措推进“双碳”目标。“新能源”的部署将加速，海上风电、分布式光伏和分散式风电预计将显著增长。新增风电和光伏装机容量预计将至少达到200GW。（去年新增装机超过300GW）。核电将稳步推进，预计到2025年底，核电运行装机容量将达到65GW。同时，促进“煤炭清洁高效利用”工作也将取得进展，更清洁和灵活的煤电系统将继续支持风电和光伏的快速增长。
储能技术和智能电网将进一步扩展，从而促进可再生能源的大规模并网，而虚拟电厂和大规模车网互动试点的发展也将提升电网效率与能源交互能力。电动汽车（EV）配套基础设施将受到更多关注，以支持电动汽车普及率的快速提高。碳市场有望扩大到更多领域，碳价格也将逐步提高。
姚喆（Zhe Yao）
绿色和平东亚分部全球政策顾问
今年将是一个重要的里程碑。作为“十四五规划”的最后一年，我们将看到中国能否回到实现既定能源和碳强度目标的轨道上来。中国未来十年的气候计划（即新的国家自主贡献）也将发布，其雄心也将接受考验。
这也是我们或可确认中国能源消费结构转变的一年，其标志着碳达峰是否到来。这一趋势的关键指标是可再生能源能否满足所有新增电力需求。
一个更为严峻的考验是，气候方面的当务之急能否以及如何应对地缘政治的挑战。中国将面对白宫易主，以及来自欧盟在清洁产业领域日益激烈的竞争，因此中国与其传统气候伙伴之间的关系需要重塑。希望到2025年，新的气候伙伴关系能够适应不断变化的经济和地缘政治环境。
陈志斌（Zhibin Chen）
阿德菲（Adelphi）碳市场与定价高级经理
展望2025年，我认为中国碳市场的发展在几个方面大有可为。其中包括：
- 显著扩大全国碳排放权交易市场（ETS）的覆盖范围，正式纳入钢铁、水泥和铝行业；
- 在自愿碳市场上启动中国核证自愿减排量（CCER）证书的签发、交易和使用，以履行合规义务；
- 转变全国碳排放权交易市场结构，使其从基于（生产单位排放）强度的限额转变为基于总量（以二氧化碳吨数计）的绝对限额；
- 允许交易员和投资者参与全国碳排放权交易市场中的碳排放配额（CEA）交易。
其中，前两点几乎可以确定将在2025年实现，我希望其能顺利实施。后两点已被生态环境部的政策制定者提及，我希望政府能为其制定明确的时间表和实施路线图。
麦怡瑞（Dr Ilaria Mazzocco）
战略与国际研究中心中国商业与经济理事会主席、高级研究员
我关注的是中国如何应对日益紧张的对外商业关系，以及国际上对中国海外直接投资需求的增长。清洁技术——尤其是太阳能、锂电池和电动汽车这“新三样”——处于这些紧张关系的核心。
围绕气候技术制造和贸易未来的全球竞争正在酝酿，而这在很大程度上取决于中国产业的发展，包括国内需求和中国企业的盈利能力。同样重要的是，包括美国在内的中国的贸易伙伴（在未来的对华政策中）将倾向于何种类型的权衡和交易。
陈凯欣（Kyle Chan）
普林斯顿大学博士后研究员
2025年将是中国电动汽车发展的关键一年。中国国内市场的激烈竞争将进一步压低价格，激励先进驾驶辅助系统等功能上的创新，并使中国继续从燃油车向电车过渡。值得关注的是，中国出现的趋势是否会成为全球趋势的先兆，比如增程式（混合动力）电动车的流行和电池更换技术的改进。
在国际市场，中国的电动车和电池制造商正在开拓新市场，并通过在欧洲和东南亚等地大规模投资海外工厂来应对不断上升的贸易壁垒。一个重大问题是，这些投资能否得到回报，或这些市场的电动车需求是否会因当地充电基础设施不足等其他因素而受到制约。另一个关键问题是，其他国家将在多大程度上选择融入中国的电动车供应链，亦或尝试在中国周围建立供应链。
徐安琪博士（Dr Angel Hsu）
北卡罗来纳大学公共政策、环境、生态与能源副教授
我对中美在气候与能源政策上继续开展次国家层面合作的前景充满期待，尤其是两国在COP29上表现出强烈的兴趣。华盛顿州与中国代表团之间的多次技术交流等……都是令人鼓舞的发展。在过去一年所取得进展的基础上，我们已经制定了将这一对话持续到2025年的计划。
我尤其关注第三方国家和地区能否作为中立平台促进合作。例如，随着美国可能退出气候合作，中方与东盟的合作机会显著增加。中国在COP29上的积极行动，尤其是其在自愿气候融资方面的努力，使其有望在支持东南亚国家脱碳方面发挥领导作用，为区域可持续发展创造双赢局面。
弗朗顿·齐耶穆拉博士（Dr Frangton Chiyemura）
英国开放大学国际发展教育讲师
2025年，中国在能源和气候方面的若干发展值得关注。国务院在2024年设定了新目标，标志着中国朝2060年实现碳中和这一更广泛目标迈出重要一步。
这些国内政策正在影响中国的国际投资。我们可以预见，中国将加大在全球南方的小规模可再生能源项目的投资，这反映了其自身在可再生能源发展中的经验。
这一战略还包括加强与富含能源转型所需重要矿产的国家的合作，尤其是非洲国家。2025年1月，中国外长王毅展开了自2013年以来对非洲的第57次访问。他访问了乍得、刚果共和国、纳米比亚和尼日利亚，突显了这一重点，这些国家都拥有丰富的能源转型所需的矿产资源。
总体而言，这些进展表明中国正在全球气候行动和能源转型中，扮演更积极的领导角色。
刘爽（Shuang Liu）
世界资源研究所中国金融项目主任
随着在巴库举行的COP29会议设定了“新气候融资集体量化目标”，中国可通过南南合作，继续支持发展中国家的低碳和韧性转型。我们的研究显示，中国已是气候融资的重要提供者，2013年至2022年间年均提供近45亿美元。
数据显示，疫情后中国在海外的气候融资有所下降，但在过去三年一直在缓慢回升。未来气候融资增长的一个重要驱动力可能是中国及其利益相关方在发展中国家清洁能源转型中的持续投资。最近的一个例子是，在印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prabowo Subianto）去年11月访问北京期间，中国和印尼签署了关于清洁能源生产和基础设施的协议。这类合作有助于能源转型，创造更多就业机会，并有助于全球南方实现其他可持续发展目标。
王珂礼（Dr Christoph Nedopil）
亚格里菲斯大学亚洲研究中心主任、经济学教授
2025年，在伙伴国日益增长的能源转型需求的驱动下，中国在绿色能源领域的参与可能通过“一带一路”倡议进一步发展。例如，印尼总统普拉博沃在2024年12月的G20会议上宣布加速绿色能源计划，并与中国签署新协议，突显了（与中国的）针对性合作在解决本地能源的优先事项方面的作用。这不仅包括对可再生能源的投资，还涉及电池制造等关键技术。
我也希望在以下三方面取得进展：一是加速低碳能源投资的同时逐步减少化石燃料投资；二是让本地员工更多地从绿色能源转型中获益，尤其是在西方对中国绿色科技产品实施更多贸易限制的情况下；三是如何在“一带一路”倡议中加快工业和自备能源的绿色转型。未来几年的一个特别之机是与亚洲其他许多能源国企分享中国国企在电力行业的经验教训。
The post 专家：中国2025年能源与气候行动将有哪些期待？ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
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The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.
To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
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The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.
Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.
The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.
Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.
This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025
Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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