2024年对中国的能源和气候发展而言是重要的一年。二氧化碳(CO2)排放量增长全年都徘徊在2023年水平附近,这使得中国在2030年前实现碳达峰的可能性增加。
中国可再生能源的快速发展将煤电占比推至历史最低水平,同时全国碳市场覆盖的行业范围也进一步扩大。

在全球层面,中国在阿塞拜疆巴库举办的COP29联合国气候谈判上发挥了重要作用。然而,由于中美贸易关系日趋紧张,此前给全球气候行动带来希望的两国合作受到威胁。
在即将上任的特朗普政府的领导下,美国在气候谈判中的影响力预计将减弱,因此中国在气候雄心方面的表态——例如其计划在2025年发布的国际气候承诺——将成为决定国内外脱碳进程速度的重要因素。
Carbon Brief向10位顶尖专家询问了他们对中国未来一年的期待。他们的回答已经过编辑,以保证简洁明了。
杨木易博士(Dr Muyi Yang)
Ember高级电力政策分析师
2025年,中国需要在保持经济增长与推进脱碳议程之间找到微妙的平衡。要实现这一平衡,不仅需要扩大风能、太阳能和储能等可再生能源的规模,还需要对长期以来在中国能源安全和经济活动中占据核心地位的煤电进行重大转型。
这不仅仅是关闭少数几家燃煤电厂那么简单,而是要处理好煤电生态系统衰退所带来的更广泛的紧张关系和冲突。这些影响将波及电企、物流公司、采矿企业、设备制造商以及煤化工行业,以及围绕它们建立的社会经济体系。
随着中国临近关键的转折点——预计在2026年开始的“十五五规划”内实现煤炭消费的绝对减少——中国现在就需开始为这一转型进行规划。在维护经济稳定、确保能源安全和履行气候承诺的同时,成功驾驭这一复杂过程将是中国在2025年及以后取得成功的关键。
林伯强教授(Prof Boqiang Lin)
中国能源政策研究院院长
2025年,中国能源和气候发展的重点是通过几项关键举措推进“双碳”目标。“新能源”的部署将加速,海上风电、分布式光伏和分散式风电预计将显著增长。新增风电和光伏装机容量预计将至少达到200GW。(去年新增装机超过300GW)。核电将稳步推进,预计到2025年底,核电运行装机容量将达到65GW。同时,促进“煤炭清洁高效利用”工作也将取得进展,更清洁和灵活的煤电系统将继续支持风电和光伏的快速增长。
储能技术和智能电网将进一步扩展,从而促进可再生能源的大规模并网,而虚拟电厂和大规模车网互动试点的发展也将提升电网效率与能源交互能力。电动汽车(EV)配套基础设施将受到更多关注,以支持电动汽车普及率的快速提高。碳市场有望扩大到更多领域,碳价格也将逐步提高。
姚喆(Zhe Yao)
绿色和平东亚分部全球政策顾问
今年将是一个重要的里程碑。作为“十四五规划”的最后一年,我们将看到中国能否回到实现既定能源和碳强度目标的轨道上来。中国未来十年的气候计划(即新的国家自主贡献)也将发布,其雄心也将接受考验。
这也是我们或可确认中国能源消费结构转变的一年,其标志着碳达峰是否到来。这一趋势的关键指标是可再生能源能否满足所有新增电力需求。
一个更为严峻的考验是,气候方面的当务之急能否以及如何应对地缘政治的挑战。中国将面对白宫易主,以及来自欧盟在清洁产业领域日益激烈的竞争,因此中国与其传统气候伙伴之间的关系需要重塑。希望到2025年,新的气候伙伴关系能够适应不断变化的经济和地缘政治环境。
陈志斌(Zhibin Chen)
阿德菲(Adelphi)碳市场与定价高级经理
展望2025年,我认为中国碳市场的发展在几个方面大有可为。其中包括:
- 显著扩大全国碳排放权交易市场(ETS)的覆盖范围,正式纳入钢铁、水泥和铝行业;
- 在自愿碳市场上启动中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)证书的签发、交易和使用,以履行合规义务;
- 转变全国碳排放权交易市场结构,使其从基于(生产单位排放)强度的限额转变为基于总量(以二氧化碳吨数计)的绝对限额;
- 允许交易员和投资者参与全国碳排放权交易市场中的碳排放配额(CEA)交易。
其中,前两点几乎可以确定将在2025年实现,我希望其能顺利实施。后两点已被生态环境部的政策制定者提及,我希望政府能为其制定明确的时间表和实施路线图。
麦怡瑞(Dr Ilaria Mazzocco)
战略与国际研究中心中国商业与经济理事会主席、高级研究员
我关注的是中国如何应对日益紧张的对外商业关系,以及国际上对中国海外直接投资需求的增长。清洁技术——尤其是太阳能、锂电池和电动汽车这“新三样”——处于这些紧张关系的核心。
围绕气候技术制造和贸易未来的全球竞争正在酝酿,而这在很大程度上取决于中国产业的发展,包括国内需求和中国企业的盈利能力。同样重要的是,包括美国在内的中国的贸易伙伴(在未来的对华政策中)将倾向于何种类型的权衡和交易。
陈凯欣(Kyle Chan)
普林斯顿大学博士后研究员
2025年将是中国电动汽车发展的关键一年。中国国内市场的激烈竞争将进一步压低价格,激励先进驾驶辅助系统等功能上的创新,并使中国继续从燃油车向电车过渡。值得关注的是,中国出现的趋势是否会成为全球趋势的先兆,比如增程式(混合动力)电动车的流行和电池更换技术的改进。
在国际市场,中国的电动车和电池制造商正在开拓新市场,并通过在欧洲和东南亚等地大规模投资海外工厂来应对不断上升的贸易壁垒。一个重大问题是,这些投资能否得到回报,或这些市场的电动车需求是否会因当地充电基础设施不足等其他因素而受到制约。另一个关键问题是,其他国家将在多大程度上选择融入中国的电动车供应链,亦或尝试在中国周围建立供应链。
徐安琪博士(Dr Angel Hsu)
北卡罗来纳大学公共政策、环境、生态与能源副教授
我对中美在气候与能源政策上继续开展次国家层面合作的前景充满期待,尤其是两国在COP29上表现出强烈的兴趣。华盛顿州与中国代表团之间的多次技术交流等……都是令人鼓舞的发展。在过去一年所取得进展的基础上,我们已经制定了将这一对话持续到2025年的计划。
我尤其关注第三方国家和地区能否作为中立平台促进合作。例如,随着美国可能退出气候合作,中方与东盟的合作机会显著增加。中国在COP29上的积极行动,尤其是其在自愿气候融资方面的努力,使其有望在支持东南亚国家脱碳方面发挥领导作用,为区域可持续发展创造双赢局面。
弗朗顿·齐耶穆拉博士(Dr Frangton Chiyemura)
英国开放大学国际发展教育讲师
2025年,中国在能源和气候方面的若干发展值得关注。国务院在2024年设定了新目标,标志着中国朝2060年实现碳中和这一更广泛目标迈出重要一步。
这些国内政策正在影响中国的国际投资。我们可以预见,中国将加大在全球南方的小规模可再生能源项目的投资,这反映了其自身在可再生能源发展中的经验。
这一战略还包括加强与富含能源转型所需重要矿产的国家的合作,尤其是非洲国家。2025年1月,中国外长王毅展开了自2013年以来对非洲的第57次访问。他访问了乍得、刚果共和国、纳米比亚和尼日利亚,突显了这一重点,这些国家都拥有丰富的能源转型所需的矿产资源。
总体而言,这些进展表明中国正在全球气候行动和能源转型中,扮演更积极的领导角色。
刘爽(Shuang Liu)
世界资源研究所中国金融项目主任
随着在巴库举行的COP29会议设定了“新气候融资集体量化目标”,中国可通过南南合作,继续支持发展中国家的低碳和韧性转型。我们的研究显示,中国已是气候融资的重要提供者,2013年至2022年间年均提供近45亿美元。
数据显示,疫情后中国在海外的气候融资有所下降,但在过去三年一直在缓慢回升。未来气候融资增长的一个重要驱动力可能是中国及其利益相关方在发展中国家清洁能源转型中的持续投资。最近的一个例子是,在印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比安托(Prabowo Subianto)去年11月访问北京期间,中国和印尼签署了关于清洁能源生产和基础设施的协议。这类合作有助于能源转型,创造更多就业机会,并有助于全球南方实现其他可持续发展目标。
王珂礼(Dr Christoph Nedopil)
亚格里菲斯大学亚洲研究中心主任、经济学教授
2025年,在伙伴国日益增长的能源转型需求的驱动下,中国在绿色能源领域的参与可能通过“一带一路”倡议进一步发展。例如,印尼总统普拉博沃在2024年12月的G20会议上宣布加速绿色能源计划,并与中国签署新协议,突显了(与中国的)针对性合作在解决本地能源的优先事项方面的作用。这不仅包括对可再生能源的投资,还涉及电池制造等关键技术。
我也希望在以下三方面取得进展:一是加速低碳能源投资的同时逐步减少化石燃料投资;二是让本地员工更多地从绿色能源转型中获益,尤其是在西方对中国绿色科技产品实施更多贸易限制的情况下;三是如何在“一带一路”倡议中加快工业和自备能源的绿色转型。未来几年的一个特别之机是与亚洲其他许多能源国企分享中国国企在电力行业的经验教训。
The post 专家:中国2025年能源与气候行动将有哪些期待? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Amid Cuts to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Species Like the Florida Panther Languish
Florida conservation groups say they plan to sue after the federal government greenlit another development that threatens the habitat of the panther, the official state animal.
The honey-colored Florida panther inhabits the southwest corner of the state, mostly occupying a remote swath of cypress swamps, sawgrass prairies and other natural and agricultural lands that constitute less than 5 percent of the large feline’s historic range.
Amid Cuts to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Species Like the Florida Panther Languish
Climate Change
We must invest in early-warning systems to tackle crises like Kenya’s drought
Dancliff Mbura is the advocacy and communications manager at Action Against Hunger Kenya. He works to influence policy and resource allocation and is an expert on multisectoral nutrition interventions.
Just four years since the last devastating drought, when five consecutive rainy seasons failed, 3.3 million people in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid counties are facing acute hunger as yet another drought crisis deepens. It is visible everywhere – in the parched riverbeds, weakened animals, and the children, who are too quiet.
Six months ago, the number of people facing acute hunger was 1.8 million. If nothing changes, by August, it will climb to 3.7 million, underscoring the need for urgent aid.
We know the answers. Cash transfers allow families to purchase food in markets that are still functioning. Mobile health and nutrition outreach teams must meet communities where they are, not where facilities happen to be located, which could make them inaccessible. Emergency water provision is essential.
But the resources are not there to address the growing needs. A coalition of humanitarian organisations working across Kenya’s drought-hit regions with the government has estimated the drought response would cost more than 30 billion Kenyan shillings ($232 million). Kenya’s government has released just 6 billion shillings so far.
Reducing the damage
Beyond the immediate response, however, we need to invest in systems that reduce the damage of future drought cycles in this climate-vulnerable region.
Kenya has systems that support the generation of early-warning systems, such as the National Drought Management Authority’s monthly county and national early-warning bulletins with detailed early-warning data. What we need is a means to ensure that information reaches communities in time for them to act on it and make sure they have the resources they need to do that.
One approach could be the establishment of village-level climate change and disaster hubs. These hubs would provide communities with simplified, actionable information, sometimes via dashboards on weather patterns and forecasts, and support them in generating locally relevant, cost-effective early actions.
By engaging communities in this process, the government and development partners can complement these efforts with additional resources where needed. This approach fosters community ownership while simultaneously enhancing resilience to climate-related risks.
With better technology, including AI-assisted climate modeling, we can generate precise early-warning information. When shared in a timely manner with communities and accompanied by support for early or anticipatory actions, this can help build resilience to frequent droughts and other crises.
For example, with access to early-warning information, vulnerable communities could store water ahead of droughts, switch to short-maturity crops when reduced rainfall is forecast, and move livestock and food stocks to higher ground before floods hit. They could also apply preventative treatments to protect crops and animals from pest or disease outbreaks, and make smarter market decisions, such as selling livestock early before prices drop, to safeguard their income.
Different in scale
I have spent 15 years working on humanitarian response in Kenya. I have seen drought cycles come and go. But what is happening right now across our arid and semi-arid lands – the ASAL counties that cover nearly 80% of the country – is different in scale and in the depth of suffering it is causing.
The October-December 2025 short rains delivered only 30 to 60% of the long-term average, making it one of the driest seasons since 1981. In some areas, rainfall failed almost entirely. More than 90% of open water sources have dried up in most parts of ASAL counties. Families are walking up to 20 km (12 miles) or more just to find water.


Now, as we approach Kenya’s more reliable rainy season from March to May, projections are well below average across the hardest-hit northern counties, and we may be heading into a fourth consecutive poor season. For communities who have already exhausted every coping mechanism they have, another failed season could be catastrophic.
More than 810,000 children between the ages of six months and five years are acutely malnourished. Nearly 117,000 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are also acutely malnourished. The cycle of nutrition that healthy communities depend on is breaking down.
And yet approximately half of severe acute malnutrition cases are going untreated. Only 24% of the nutrition and health outreach sites mapped across the arid and semi-arid counties are currently functioning.
Impossible choices
The economic devastation compounds everything. Livestock is the backbone of life in these pastoral lands. But in Marsabit county alone, more than 50,000 sheep and goats have died. Mandera has lost nearly 30,000 animals. Milk production has plummeted by 55%. As animals grow weaker, families receive less and less when they sell them. Livelihoods are collapsing in slow motion, and families are running out of options.
That can lead to desperate decisions: more daughters are married off early in exchange for dowry like livestock, a practice that rises sharply in times of crisis. Girls are subjected to female genital mutilation so they can be considered ready for marriage. Children drop out of school as families are forced to move in search of better land.
Every week that passes without a scaled-up response is a week in which children go hungry, animals die, and families make impossible choices. We are at a point where, if we do not act, lives will be lost – preventably.
Not because we lacked the knowledge, not because we lacked the warning, but because we were not able to move fast enough.
The post We must invest in early-warning systems to tackle crises like Kenya’s drought appeared first on Climate Home News.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/03/10/we-must-invest-in-early-warning-systems-to-tackle-crises-like-kenyas-drought/
Climate Change
A Warmer Climate Means Bigger Hail
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