Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the global power sector grew just 0.2% in the first six months of 2023, with rapidly rising wind and solar outpacing sluggish demand growth.
Emissions from electricity generation would have fallen, but droughts forced countries to increase fossil fuel use to cover declines in hydropower.
The findings come from a new report by thinktank Ember, covering 78 countries and 92% of global electricity demand in the first half of 2023.
The report shows that global electricity demand growth and the expansion of low-carbon supplies remain delicately balanced, with ongoing droughts putting a question mark over Ember’s earlier prediction of a decline in fossil-fueled power in 2023.
While expanded wind and solar capacity met a record 14.3% of global electricity demand in the first half of this year, up from 12.8% a year earlier, hydro generation fell by 8.5%.
With a small rise in fossil-fueled power helping to make up for the drop from hydro, emissions from the sector plateaued rather than declining, despite weak electricity demand growth.
The expansion of low-carbon electricity supplies overall remains insufficient to put the world on track for limiting warming to 1.5C, according to Ember’s report.
Solar topples records
Global wind and solar generation continued to increase across the first six months of 2023, according to Ember.
The amount of electricity generated by solar and wind rose to 1,930 terawatt hours (TWh), up 12% from 1,717TWh during the first half of 2022. This accounted for 14.3% of global electricity generation overall, of which 5.5% came from solar and 8.8% came from wind.
In percentage terms, both sources grew more slowly than in the same period last year. For example, wind output grew 10% in the first half of 2023 compared to 16% in the same period last year. Solar grew 16%, compared to 26% in the first half of 2022.
Such levels of growth are below what is needed to limit warming to 1.5C under the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario, which requires a yearly average growth of 17% for wind and 24% for solar up to 2050, Ember notes.
Similarly, in absolute terms, the growth in wind and solar generation was below the levels seen in 2022. Solar grew by 104TWh, down from 132TWh in the same period last year. Wind increased by 109TWh, compared to 147TWh in the same period last year.
Some 50 countries set new monthly records for solar generation in the first half of 2023, Ember says. This includes 24 of the EU’s 27 members seeing new solar highs as of June.
China, meanwhile, generated 50TWh (6.4% of its electricity) from solar in June 2023, up by 9.7TWh (+25%) on the previous June. This means China’s solar generation in one month would be enough to power New Zealand, Qatar or Hungary for a whole year.
Records were also broken in the US, Mexico, Brazil and Chile, among many others in the Americas, Ember says. As shown in the below chart, where the light green line shows solar trending above 2022 generation levels (dark green line) across a range of countries worldwide.
Having peaked in 2020, wind capacity additions have trended downwards over the past few years, according to Ember. In 2020, 111 gigawatts (GW) of capacity were installed worldwide, in 2021 it was 92GW and in 2022 it was 73GW.
Wind generation growth has similarly slowed, with the largest increase in history (+268TWh) in 2021. This then decreased to +251TWh in 2022, and 109TWh in the first half of 2023.
As with solar, China is surging ahead on wind, being responsible for 91% of global growth in generation in the first half of this year, according to Ember.
China saw a 26% growth in wind generation in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. In contrast, wind generation in the EU grew by just 4.8% and in Japan by 2.4%, from an already low baseline, the report notes.
Together, wind and solar generation increased by 213TWh in the first six months of 2023. This increase was much larger than the growth in global electricity demand of 59TWh. However, with hydro output falling dramatically due to drought (see below), there was still a small increase in fossil fuel use and emissions..
Without the increase from wind and solar, global power sector emissions would have risen by 154m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2, 2.6%), instead of the 12MtCO2 (0.2%) actually seen, according to Ember.
Hydropower drops by record amount
In the first six months of 2023, global hydropower generation fell by 8.5% (-177TWh), according to Ember. Hydro generated 1,898TWh of electricity, some 14% of the global total in the first half of the year, in comparison with 2,074TWh (15%) in the same period of 2022.
The decrease in hydropower generation was caused by droughts, which Ember says were likely exacerbated by climate change. The fall in the six months to June (dark blue) was larger than any decline recorded across a full year in the last two decades, as shown in the chart below.
This was most notable in China, which accounted for around three-quarters of the fall.
China is home to nearly a third of the world’s hydropower generation (30% in 2022).
This year, the country’s hydropower sector was hit by summer droughts for the third consecutive year, as reported by Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
In July, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that hydropower output fell by nearly 23% in the first half of 2023 – the largest drop among all electricity sources.
Similarly, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air recorded a “collapse” in output in the month of June, down 34% year-on-year. It attributed this to “drought and pressure to save water for generation during peak demand season in July–August”.
Ember’s analysis found that China’s hydropower “capacity factor” fell to 30.5% in the first six half of 2023, ten percentage points below the first half of 2022 and the lowest value since at least 2015.
Beyond China, the global capacity factor for hydropower generation fell to 35.6%, nearly four percentage points lower than in the first half of 2022. Across the last decade, the average global hydropower capacity factor was 40.9%, notes Ember.
According to the IEA’s electricity market report, the capacity factor of global hydropower has been a declining trend over the last decade. It has fallen from an average of 38% in 1990-2016, to about 36% in 2020-2022.
This 2% difference means installed hydropower is producing about 240TWh less electricity than it would have produced had the capacity factor stayed the same as it was a decade ago, the IEA report notes.
It adds:
“As a result, an amount of energy as large as Spain’s annual electricity consumption needs to be produced by other dispatchable sources of power, which is currently supplied mainly by fossil-fired generation.”
Currently, 2023 is likely to set a record for the lowest global hydropower capacity factor in recorded history, if conditions fail to substantially improve, Ember adds.
Fossil fuel generation increased to meet the shortfall created by low hydropower rates. If hydropower generation had matched its rate in 2022, power sector emissions would have fallen by 2.9%, Ember says.
Ember suggests that the way hydropower capacity has been hit in the first six months of 2023 is a “warning shot” about how the technology could negatively affect the speed of the electricity transition, given its susceptibility to climate change.
In a statement, Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior electricity analyst at Ember, says:
“It’s still hanging in the balance if 2023 will see a fall in power sector emissions. While it is encouraging to see the remarkable growth of wind and solar energy, we can’t ignore the stark reality of adverse hydro conditions intensified by climate change. The world is teetering at the peak of power sector emissions, and we now need to unleash the momentum for a rapid decline in fossil fuels by securing a global agreement to triple renewables capacity this decade.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report states that by 2080, climate conditions could affect hydropower generation by between +5% and -5%, under a high emissions scenario. However, it said the expected impact varies significantly depending on the region.
Demand drops in major economies
Across the first six months of 2023, global demand for electricity grew by just 0.4%, according to Ember.
This is much lower than the average annual growth rate between 2012 and 2022, which sat at 2.6%.
Major economies saw falls in demand, including Japan (-5.6%), the EU (-4.6%), the US (-3.4%) and South Korea (-1.4%), leading to a decline in their fossil fuel use for electricity.
This fall in demand in high income economies was due to a number of reasons, according to Ember. In the EU, for example, this continued a trend that began in March 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Policy measures designed to reduce demand amid the wider energy crisis and concerns over the security of gas, falling output from energy intensive industries, mild winter weather, and reduced personal use due to the cost of living crisis, all contributed.
Mild weather and slower economic activity also drove electricity demand reductions in the US and Japan, Ember says.
Meanwhile, India saw lower-than-expected demand growth in the first six months of 2023, according to the report, rising 3.1% compared to 10.7% in the same period last year. This was lower than the average growth seen from 2012-22 (5.4%).
In China, electricity demand increased by 6%, which is in line with the China Electricity Council’s national estimates, Ember notes, and the historic average for 2012-22 (+5.9%). This reflects China’s rebound from Covid lockdowns in 2022 as well as heatwaves during May and June.
Demand growth is unlikely to continue at such a slow level globally in the future, especially in mature economies that are looking to electrify key sectors such as transport and heating to decarbonise, the report notes.
Electricity demand is set to continue increasing in rapidly-growing economies, including China and India, as they continue to advance their economies and boost electricity access.
Emissions plateau
Thanks to the increase in solar and wind power generation – and despite the drop in hydro output – global power sector emissions plateaued over the first half of 2023, according to Ember. It says the increase from wind and solar avoided 142MtCO2 of emissions.
Globally, the power sector emitted 5,795MtCO2 in the six months of 2023, up just 12MtCO2 (0.2%) from the same period in 2022. This continued a downwards trend that had been seen in the power sector prior to 2021, as seen in the chart below.
Falls in power-sector emissions were seen in the EU (-17%), Japan (-12%), US (-8.6%) and South Korea (-3%), largely as a result of falls in coal generation.
Emissions growth slowed in India, Ember says, where there was a 3.7% increase in the first half of 2023, down from 9.7% a year earlier.
However, Ember’s report notes that current progress falls short of what would be needed to keep warming below 1.5C, stating:
“Power-sector emissions need to be falling fast this decade, not just plateauing. Moreover, having falling emissions when demand is exceptionally low is not enough; emissions must be falling even when global demand is increasing as the world consumes more electricity and moves towards electrifying the entire economy.”
In economies where emissions rose, this was due to an increase in fossil fuel generation.
Globally, fossil-fueled power reached 8,100TWh in the first half of 2023, accounting for 59.9% of global generation overall. This was an increase of 9TWh (0.1%) from a year earlier..
Coal generation increased by 1% (47TWh) and gas generation by 0.5% (14TWh), however other fossil fuel (mainly oil) generation fell 15% (-52TWh).
The changes varied significantly at regional and country level. For example, in China, coal generation increased by 203TWh (8%) in the first half of 2023. This was largely due to the hydropower deficit (129TWh) and contributed to China’s emissions for its power sector rising by 7.9% (173MtCO2).
Without the need to meet the hydropower deficit, China’s coal generation would only have risen by 74TWh (2.9%), according to Ember. This would have been enough to turn the observed 47TWh rise in global coal generation into a fall of 82TWh.
Meanwhile, in the EU, fossil generation fell to its lowest since at least 2000 in the first half of 2023, at 410TWh.
The fall was Europe-wide, with 11 countries seeing a decline of at least 20% and five a decline of more than 30% (Portugal, Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia and Finland), as detailed in an earlier report from Ember, covered by Carbon Brief.
Coal generation in the bloc fell 23% (-49TWh), in contrast to the global rise of 1%.
The post World’s electricity supply close to ‘peak emissions’ due to growth of wind and solar appeared first on Carbon Brief.
World’s electricity supply close to ‘peak emissions’ due to growth of wind and solar
The state Senate’s version of the bill offers more opportunities for utilities to profit, leading some observers to question whether the legislation will substantively lower costs for customers.
In its most recent energy affordability legislation, the Maryland Senate has reversed key utility accountability proposals passed by the state House and added new ways for utility companies to earn profit, including by reviving a billion-dollar gas subsidy that requires all ratepayers to cover the cost of running new gas pipelines to housing developments.
Utility Accountability Bills Divide Maryland’s Democratic Leadership
Marcelo Behar is the COP30 Special Envoy for Bioeconomy and co-founder of Ambition Loop Brazil.
Can we be the generation to end the rampant deforestation that is harming the planet’s ecosystems and climate? Back in February, the Brazilian COP30 Presidency opened a call for submissions on its proposed Roadmap for Halting Deforestation and Forest Degradation, which closes today.
What might look like a technical step quickly drew significant attention, with more than 100 responses submitted by governments, civil society organisations, businesses and other stakeholders.
This level of engagement is telling. It reflects both the urgency of the issue and the recognition that this process could shape whether the global goal to end deforestation by 2030 finally moves from ambition to delivery.
As a Brazilian, I see this moment with both pride and realism. Brazil has played a central role in elevating forests on the climate agenda, and the COP30 Presidency has shown leadership in carrying this issue forward far beyond the Belém summit.
COP30 rainforest fund unlikely to make first payments until 2028
But last year also offered a sobering signal. Despite strong efforts from the Brazilian Presidency, the proposed roadmap did not secure consensus in the final outcome of COP30. That outcome underlined a simple truth: while there is broad recognition of the importance of forests, agreeing on how to move forward remains complex. The road ahead is still long and likely uneven.
That is precisely why this moment matters.
Progress on commitments falling short
The world is not short of commitments. Over the past decade, countries have repeatedly pledged to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030. There is a growing body of experience through the REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) programme, including the emergence of jurisdictional approaches that are beginning to connect forest protection with finance at scale.
Initiatives such as the Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership have helped sustain political attention and cooperation among countries, while national strategies continue to evolve, and Indigenous Peoples and local communities remain at the forefront of protecting forests.
And yet, progress is still falling short.
The gap is not only one of alignment. It is also one of political will – and of having a credible, shared pathway that brings together these efforts in a way that drives implementation at scale.
Civil society is watching this process closely. For many organisations working across climate, nature and conservation, this is not just another initiative – it is a priority. After years of advocating to end deforestation, there is a strong sense that this moment cannot be lost. The expectation is clear: this roadmap must move beyond intention and help unlock real progress.
The opportunity now is to ensure that it does exactly that. This cannot become another report.
Implementation key to roadmap success
A detailed assessment of pathways and challenges, however valuable, will not be enough to change outcomes on the ground. What is needed is an implementation roadmap, one that connects existing commitments, aligns incentives and provides clarity on how to move from ambition to delivery between now and 2030.
The consultation process is an important step. But its value will ultimately be judged by what it produces.
If the roadmap is to succeed, several priorities should guide its development.
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First: policy. It must be designed as a tool for implementation. That means going beyond diagnosis to define concrete action: who needs to act, by when, and how progress will be tracked. The solutions are not new, but coordination has been missing.
Second: accountability. It should bring coherence to the existing landscape. The value of a roadmap lies not in creating new commitments, but in connecting what already exists: global targets, REDD+ experience, national action plans, Indigenous leadership and supply chain initiatives. Reducing fragmentation is essential to accelerating delivery.
Early milestones needed
Third: finance. It must be grounded in economic reality. Halting deforestation will not happen without addressing the incentives that underpin it. Aligning public finance, private investment, and market demand with forest protection is not a technical detail; it is the core of the transition.
Fourth: transparency. Legitimacy will depend on openness. A credible roadmap cannot be developed behind closed doors. Governments, Indigenous Peoples and local communities, civil society, business and finance actors all have a role to play and must be able to see how their contributions shape the outcome.
Fifth: urgency. Progress must be visible in 2026. Without early milestones, momentum will fade. By the time climate negotiators gather in Bonn mid-year, the roadmap should have a clear structure, priority actions and growing political backing.
Governments must deliver on the plan
Finally, countries themselves will need to step forward. Last year’s outcome showed that support alone is not enough. Delivering this roadmap will require active political engagement. That means governments that are willing not only to participate in the process, but to help shape and implement it.
Brazil has created an important opening. It has also taken on the responsibility that comes with leadership: to help turn a widely supported idea into something that can deliver in practice.
The commitment to end deforestation by 2030 already exists. What is still needed is a path. And the courage to walk it.
The post How a Brazil-led roadmap can rescue global pledge to halt deforestation appeared first on Climate Home News.
How a Brazil-led roadmap can rescue global pledge to halt deforestation
A US biofuels producer that exports “green” aviation fuel to Britain and the European Union has purchased beef tallow from a Brazilian supply chain tied to illegal deforestation in the Amazon, shipping data and a court document show.
Diamond Green Diesel (DGD), a major provider of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel, has sourced hundreds of thousands of tonnes of beef tallow from Brazil, alongside waste fats from other sources, over the last three years, as global demand for biofuel feedstocks soars.
Reporting by Unearthed and nonprofit investigative outlet Repórter Brasil reveals DGD’s connection to a rendering plant that has sourced supplies from a meatpacker fined for buying cattle from an illegally deforested Amazon reserve. A previous investigation by Reuters and Repórter Brasil found DGD had bought animal fat from two other rendering factories linked to supplies of cattle from illegal ranches.
The newly identified factory, Pacífico Indústria e Comércio de Óleos e Proteínas Ltda, which is based in Cacoal, a small city in the far-western Amazon state of Rondônia, has been supplied by Rondônia meatpacker DistriBoi, a 2022 court document shows.
DistriBoi was fined two years ago for illegally purchasing cattle from the state’s Jaci-Paraná conservation reserve, which has been ravaged by illegal ranching.
There is no suggestion that the companies involved were aware of deforestation at farm level. But the findings suggest a traceability gap in the supply chain of feedstocks for sustainable fuels, where cattle by-products are subject to less oversight than the primary commodities of the cattle industry, such as meat and leather.
Pristine rainforest blanketed the Jaci-Paraná reserve when it was created 30 years ago to protect traditional forest activities such as rubber tapping and nut harvesting.
Today, illegal ranching has devoured nearly 80% of its forest cover and it has become a notorious example of the devastation wrought by land grabbers in the world’s largest rainforest.
“The damage to biodiversity has been devastating,” said local Indigenous activist Neidinha Suruí, who featured in the 2025 Emmy Award-winning documentary “O Território”.
“It is sad to see what has been lost,” she said.
Greener air travel?
The “renewable diesel” and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that are being exported by DGD – a joint venture between US oil refiner Valero Energy Corp and Texas-based Darling Ingredients – are classed as “green” because they are made from feedstocks classified as waste, including tallow, which consists of fat separated from cattle carcasses.
Many governments and airlines are pinning their hopes for greener flying on SAF made with organic waste materials, including Britain which introduced a compulsory blending requirement last year.
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Air travel accounts for about 2.5% of global carbon emissions and in contrast to other transport sectors that can be electrified, shrinking aviation’s carbon footprint is much more difficult.
Waste products such as beef tallow and used cooking oil (UCO) are considered the greenest of viable SAF feedstocks on the grounds that they do not create competition with foodstuffs such as soy oil or palm oil, nor increase deforestation pressure.
But there is concern that the global rush to ramp up SAF use could indirectly exacerbate deforestation pressure by increasing demand for feedstocks such as tallow and UCO.
That could increase the profit margins of cattle ranches – including illegal ones – and have other unintended consequences, such as encouraging fraud in supply chains, as Climate Home News has reported.
An investigation published in March by Climate Home News and Swedish broadcaster SVT found that Finnish biofuels giant Neste is sourcing key ingredients for its SAF from an opaque supply chain that enables fresh palm oil to be passed off as used, waste oil.
Because tallow is classified as waste by regulators in markets including the UK and EU, the green fuel industry’s most widely used certification scheme – International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) – does not assess whether forests were cleared to rear the cattle that produced it in the first place.
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This allows tallow from cattle to qualify as a sustainable feedstock for green fuels, even if they were raised on illegally deforested land.
“There is clearly an oversight within the rules if the products, in this case animal tallow, are originally coming from deforested land,” said Cian Delaney, a campaign coordinator at the clean transport and energy advocacy group Transport & Environment.
That means government SAF mandates aimed at stemming air travel emissions could help boost the earnings of cattle ranchers linked to illegal deforestation in Brazil, where ranching and other forms of agriculture have been the main driver of forest loss.
Land grabbers clear way for ranchers
Once covered by an unbroken rainforest canopy, Rondônia’s Jaci-Paraná reserve has been decimated by illegal deforestation driven by cattle ranching – a major cause of tree loss in the Amazon.
Land-grabbers have seized – often violently – and cleared more than three-quarters of its forest for pasture, as ranching has steadily advanced into the southern Amazon.
Suruí, the local Indigenous activist, said companies that buy products derived from illegal activities perpetuate environmental crimes in the rainforest.
“If there were no meat processors buying illegally sourced cattle, there would be no land grabbing and no deforestation,” Suruí told Repórter Brasil, which partnered on the new investigation with Unearthed, and a team of journalists supported by JournalismFund Europe.
Lawsuits and linked supply chains
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pledged to end all deforestation in the country by 2030, in part by strengthening environmental enforcement in the world’s biggest rainforest.
In Rondônia, authorities have launched more than 50 lawsuits related to land-grabbing and deforestation in the Jaci-Paraná reserve alone. Local slaughterhouse DistriBoi is named in 31 of the lawsuits, including the 2024 case in which it was fined.
According to the 2022 court document, which concerned an unrelated labour dispute, lawyers for Pacífico refer to DistriBoi as the rendering plant’s “largest supplier of raw materials”.
US-based DGD received almost 15,000 tonnes of tallow from Pacífico from 2023 to 2025 at its Texas refinery, as well as used cooking oil from various countries and sources, according to trade database Panjiva.
Darling Ingredients is also a parent company of Pacífico since its 2022 acquisition of Brazilian rendering company FASA Group.
A spokesperson for Darling Ingredients denied that Pacífico had sourced beef residues from DistriBoi’s Ji-Paraná slaughterhouse – one of two that the meatpacker operates in Rondônia.
“The rendering plant Pacífico does not source any materials from the slaughterhouse Distriboi in Ji-Paraná,” the spokesperson said in an emailed response, without providing evidence or commenting directly on the content of the 2022 court document.
Darling did not respond to a follow-up question about Distriboi’s other slaughterhouse in the region, which, according to cattle transfer documents, has also bought from a farm that has illegally cleared forest within the extractive reserve.
“Our relationships are typically with the slaughterhouse, several levels removed from cattle ranchers. Regardless, we are committed to ensuring our raw materials are deforestation free. We expect our raw material suppliers to abide by our supplier code of conduct. In addition, we are in the process of requiring all [the] raw materials to attest that their material is deforestation free,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
DistriBoi said in an apparent reference to the pending Jaci-Paraná lawsuits that “the matters mentioned … are already under review, including by higher courts”. It has previously denied wrongdoing. The company’s statement did not address a question about its commercial ties to Pacífico.
Valero Energy, the major refiner that co-owns DGD with Darling Ingredients, did not respond to requests for comment, nor did DGD itself.
From slaughterhouse to SAF
In an effort to rein in carbon emissions from air travel, regulators in Britain and the EU have mandated progressively increasing SAF blending quotas in the years ahead, creating a new market for feedstocks including beef tallow.
Brazil’s exports of tallow to the US have risen sharply in recent years, up from less than 10,000 tonnes in 2021 to almost 400,000 tonnes last year, according to Panjiva, reflecting growing demand for biofuels like SAF.
In the UK, Europe’s biggest aviation market by seat capacity, jet fuel was required to contain 2% SAF by the end of 2025, rising to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040.
DGD shipped 134,000 tonnes of SAF worth nearly $90 million from Texas to the UK in 2025, according to trade data from Panjiva. The company also exported smaller amounts of renewable diesel to Britain.
The EU received biofuels, including small quantities of SAF, worth over $1.1 billion from DGD’s Texas refinery last year, figures show.
Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy?
Unearthed’s investigation could not identify which airlines or airports buy DGD’s SAF once it arrives in Britain.
Valero, DGD’s other parent company, is positioning itself as a key player in the transition to lower-carbon fuels in the UK, where it markets its renewable diesel under the Texaco brand.
It has been an active participant in SAF policy discussions and has criticised the government’s planned cap on waste fat sources in SAF, calling them “the world’s most cost-effective production route for SAF” in a submission to parliament.
Helping to cut emissions?
Even tighter oversight over SAF feedstocks is crucial to ensure that blending mandates such as Britain’s are effectively lowering emissions, said Anna Krajinska, a director at Transport & Environment UK.
Forests store vast amounts of carbon; when they are cut down or burned this carbon is released into the atmosphere.
“If there’s tallow coming from land that’s been deforested, then those emissions might be so high that you might not be getting to the greenhouse gas reduction threshold,” Krajinska said.
But as the world’s appetite for flying keeps on growing, some experts say SAF is the only viable means to reduce aviation emissions at present.
Referring to the deforestation links identified in Unearthed’s investigation, Wouter Dewulf, an aviation economist at Belgium’s University of Antwerp, said it “would be important to assess how large this infraction is”.
“I’m quite sure you have aberrations,” Dewulf added. “But biofuels are the best alternative for the moment.”
T&E’s Delaney said there needs to be less opacity and better oversight from regulatory authorities. “Right now, there are just too many blindspots,” he added.
The post UK imports of “green” jet fuel linked to Amazon deforestation appeared first on Climate Home News.
UK imports of “green” jet fuel linked to Amazon deforestation
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