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The global nickel market started 2025 with an oversupply dilemma. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the market is expected to face a supply surplus of 198,000 metric tons (mt) this year. That’s higher than the surplus of 179,000 mt recorded in 2024 and 170,000 mt in 2023.

INSG also predicted that production of primary nickel is projected to reach 3.735 million mt in 2025, while global usage is forecast at just 3.537 million mt. This imbalance continues to weigh down prices and investor sentiment, especially across Asia.

NICKEL
Source: INSG

Nickel Demand Slump Likely to Drag Into 2025

The EV sector is the primary demand driver for nickel. The EV sector, while expanding in China and Europe, is shifting battery preferences. Automakers are moving away from nickel-heavy nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries toward nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are more cost-efficient.

In China, the share of NMC batteries dropped to 19% of total production in January and February 2025, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance. This shift has put downward pressure on nickel sulfate prices, despite expectations of higher consumption in 2025.

  • S&P Global highlighted that global nickel demand from batteries was around 384,000 mt Ni in 2024 and is forecast to grow to 543,000 mt Ni in 2025.

Yet, the market remains underutilized due to excess production capacity and preference for alternative battery chemistries. Thus, on the demand side, the market remains sluggish.

        2025 Chinese NMC Production Further Declines to 19%

nickel demand
Sourced from S&P Global

Oversupply Weighs on Nickel Prices Despite Early-Year Momentum

Nickel prices showed a brief uptick at the start of 2025, but the momentum quickly faded due to ongoing supply pressure and sluggish demand. Prices opened the year at $15,040 per metric ton on January 2, rising to $16,080 mid-month before dipping again.

As per S&P Global,

  • The LME 3M closing nickel price dropped to a near-five-year low of $14,084/t on April 9 from $16,107/t on April 1.
  • By the end of Q1, prices had settled around $15,545/t.

                        What happened to the nickel price in Q1?

Q1 nickel prices

U.S. Nickel Probe Could Spark Short-Term Price Jump

Trade tensions under the Trump administration are making nickel markets even more volatile. The high tariffs could increase costs for EV batteries and stainless steel, further weakening nickel demand.

However, on April 15, the U.S. government began a probe into imports of processed critical minerals like nickel under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The Commerce Secretary must submit a report to the President within 180 days.

Trump earlier used Section 232 to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Refined Class 1 nickel was not hit by the April 2 tariffs, but that might change after the new review.

A recent copper probe caused copper stocks to shift to the U.S., pushing up prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). If the same happens, nickel stocks might drop, and nickel prices could also rise soon.

Asia’s Nickel Market Strain in Q1

Indonesia and China are making more value-added nickel products like nickel sulfate and nickel cathodes. These are used in electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries.

Thus, Asia continues to lead global nickel supply growth.

  • Indonesia is set to boost its production from 1.6 million metric tons in 2024 to 1.7 million metric tons in 2025, keeping its spot as the world’s top producer.
  • China comes next, with output rising from 1.035 million metric tons in 2024 to 1.085 million metric tons in 2025.
  • The Philippines shipped 54 million metric tons of nickel ore in 2024, with 43.5 million metric tons going to China.

However, the Indonesian government is delaying permits (RKABs), making the supply of nickel ore significantly tight. Yet, the country still produces a large amount of refined nickel.

Furthermore, Manila is now considering a ban on raw nickel exports. If that happens, China’s nickel supply chain could take a major hit.

Indonesia nickel

Jason Sappor, metals and mining research senior analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, has revealed his insights by noting,

“Amid an unstable global macroeconomic backdrop, we expect the global primary nickel market to remain oversupplied in 2025, with production from Indonesia forecast to expand further this year, despite challenges like tight nickel ore availability and a potential royalty rate hike on nickel products by the government.” 

             Feb 2025 China Nickel Ore Imports Down 6.3% y-o-y

China nickel
Sourced from S&P Global

Tax Hike and Shrinking Profits

Indonesia recently raised mining royalties from 10% to as high as 19%, based on nickel prices. These new rates aim to fund government programs under President Prabowo Subianto. Still, low-grade nickel used for EV batteries will see a lower 2% royalty.

These tax hikes have pushed production costs higher and caused nickel prices to rise in March. But the future remains uncertain. Miners warn of shrinking profits due to rising expenses and limited ore supply.

Meanwhile, Chinese companies are pulling back. Nickel giant CNGR has paused its South Korea project, showing investors are growing cautious in a volatile nickel market.

Conclusion: Surplus to Persist, Prices Likely to Stay Low

Looking ahead, the nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied throughout 2025. INSG forecasts a 3.8% increase in global nickel production this year, after a 4.6% rise in 2024.

Lastly, as we can see, policy-driven price volatility due to new royalties, trade tariffs, and battery chemistry shifts will continue to keep nickel prices low.

The post Will the Nickel Oversupply Continue to Crush Prices in 2025? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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