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The talented data analysts at Rhodium Corp. reported this week that U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases fell nearly two percent last year, even as national economic output rose by 2.4%. This was good news, further evidence of “decoupling” emissions from economic activity, but also bad news, because, says Rhodium, the 1.9% drop in GHG’s was woefully short of the 6.9% annual decrease required from now to 2030 to meet our Paris target of a 50-52% reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels.

Here we examine the locus of the good news: the 8% drop in electricity generation in 2023 vs. 2022 that enabled the 2% drop in overall emissions despite rises in emissions from transportation and some other sectors.

The chart at left seems to reinforce the customary line that the leading driver of reduced U.S. carbon emissions is the switch to gas-fired power generation from coal-fired electricity. Indeed, the 101 TWh increase in gas-fired kilowatt-hours accounted numerically for three-quarters of the 134 TWh drop in coal, showing the close (if inverse) link between the two. Since modern “combined cycle” gas-burning plants emit a whopping 60% less CO2 per kWh than coal-burners, substituting the one for the other is a climate win, even allowing for the greenhouse impacts of methane released in gas drilling and transmission.

What’s missing from this narrative is the role of energy efficiency in suppressing demand for electricity, depicted in the graph’s two right-most bars.

The first bar, showing a gain of 47 TWh labeled as Efficiency, denotes the reduction in total U.S. electricity generation over the first 9 months of 2023 vs. the year-earlier 9-month total. If not for that contraction, either the reduction in coal-fired electricity would have been smaller than the 134 TWh shown, or the increase in gas-fired electricity would have had to be greater than the actual 101 TWh, or a combination of the two. (The other sources — nuclear, hydro, wind and solar — are already producing at their maximum capability.) Power-sector emissions would have been greater in either case.

But the efficiency story doesn’t end there. U.S. economic output wasn’t flat in 2023, it grew by 2.4% over 2022 (per preliminary figures reported by Rhodium). In earlier periods of U.S. history, that economic growth would have required greater electricity production. For most of the last century, the ratio averaged around 2-to-1, i.e., electricity growth was twice as fast as overall GDP growth. From 1975 to around 2005, the relationship was around 1-to-1. Since 2005, in a profound development that few predicted (and which few have acknowledged, other than CTC), U.S. electricity usage has been virtually flat, even as economic activity has risen by more than 40 percent.

For this post, and in the chart above, I’ve used a 1-to-1 relationship, i.e., I’ve assumed that if not for increased energy efficiency, the 2.4% year-on-year growth in U.S. economic activity would have required a corresponding 2.4% increase in electricity production. Numerically, nearly 80 additional TWh would have been required (calculated as 2.4% of 2022 9-month U.S. electricity production, including rooftop solar, of 3,283,000 TWh). Adding that to the actual decrease in electricity yields the true efficiency figure of 126 TWh shown in the right-most bar.

The biggest enabler of the 2022 drop in coal-fired electricity generation, then, wasn’t increased power production from natural gas, which grew by 101 TWh. It certainly wasn’t solar, which grew by a lot percentage-wise, nearly 15%, but by just 27 TWh in absolute terms. Nor was it the U.S. wind sector, which actually contracted in the first nine months of the year (see first chart, above).

Well-meaning misinformation from Canary Media, Jan. 10. See link to story in text.

Others are spinning the 2023 data differently. Rhodium reports that “coal is playing less and less of a role on the grid, while both natural gas and renewable generators are filling the gap.” True, but it leaves out the vital — I would say central — role played by energy efficiency in constraining U.S. electricity demand so that the increase in gas-burning could be held to 101 TWh.

For sheer distortion it’s hard to top Canary Media’s take, shown at left. While it’s true that “the buildout of renewable energy helped to curb America’s greenhouse gas emissions by 1.9% in 2023,” the actual gain in renewable power output was a sideshow to electricity efficiency. Indeed, netting the 27 TWh increase in solar output by the combined 23 TWh decrease in hydro and wind generation combined leaves almost nothing in the way of net renewables growth.

This suggests updating the adage about victory having a thousand fathers while defeat is an orphan. In climate circles and energy policy, last year’s modest success in reducing emissions has multiple parents: more gas-burning, more solar arrays, more renewables. Meanwhile, the truest parent — increased efficiency in electricity usage — goes unremarked. This inattention is mirrored in policy. The Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes everything from electric cars and heat pumps to battery storage and factories to supply wind turbines and solar cells. It doesn’t, for the most part, subsidize ways to use energy more efficiently.

That’s not deliberate, it’s the nature of energy efficiency, savings and conservation: they involve ways of doing more with less, and they come in a million guises. They can’t be subsidized, but they can be rewarded, by taxing carbon emissions.

We’ve been saying for two decades: Taxes on fossil fuels, levied “upstream” at mines, wells and import docks, raise the value of every personal, corporate and collective action to reduce unnecessary use of energy. There’s no way around taxing carbon.

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China’s Renewables Soar: 18 Months of Stable Emissions Mark Turning Point

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china renewable

A recently published report from CarbonBrief explained that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have shown signs of stabilization for the past 18 months, from March 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. This marks a major shift for the world’s largest emitter, as strong renewable energy growth and electric vehicle (EV) adoption begin to offset emissions from heavy industry.

china emissions

China’s Renewable Boom Drives a Historic Emissions Slowdown

The global renewable boom adds further momentum. International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2025 report shows that the world added over 510 GW of renewable capacity in 2024 — the fastest pace in history. Another 520 GW is expected in 2025, with solar making up nearly 75% of new installations.

China alone contributes nearly 60% of the world’s renewable capacity — around 1,400 GW in total. Renewables now supply over 35% of China’s electricity, up from 27% in 2020.

Notably, China’s emissions have remained flat or slightly fallen for six consecutive quarters — a remarkable change after decades of growth. The key driver behind this trend is the country’s unprecedented expansion of renewable energy capacity.

  • According to the IEA, in 2025 China added about 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months alone, setting a new global record.

Solar power generation rose 46% year-on-year, while wind increased by 11%. These clean energy gains allowed China to meet rising electricity demand — which grew by 6.1% in Q3 2025 — without increasing fossil fuel use.

china renewables
Source: IEA

Furthermore, power-sector CO2 emissions held steady in the third quarter, supported by renewable growth and small boosts from nuclear and hydropower. As renewables continue to expand, they are covering nearly all of the new electricity demand in China.

Electric Vehicles Cut Transport Emissions

The rapid growth of electric vehicles has been another key factor in flattening China’s emissions curve. The CarbonBrief report highlighted that in the third quarter of 2025, transport fuel emissions dropped by 5% year-on-year, as more drivers switched from gasoline and diesel cars to EVs.

This trend also highlights China’s policy success in electrifying its vehicle fleet. The country leads the world in EV production and adoption, supported by strong government incentives and expanding charging networks.

However, emissions from other oil-consuming sectors rose by 10%, driven mainly by a surge in chemical and plastics production. This increase in industrial demand offset the transport sector’s emission gains and kept total oil-related emissions slightly higher.

China ev adoption

Industrial Emissions Paint a Mixed Picture

While China’s renewable and EV progress is impressive, heavy industries continue to weigh on its emission profile. In the third quarter of 2025:

  • Cement and building materials emissions fell 7%, reflecting a prolonged real estate slowdown.
  • Steel sector emissions declined 1%, even as output dropped 3%.

Interestingly, lower demand in steelmaking was absorbed mostly by electric-arc furnace (EAF) producers, who are less carbon-intensive. Yet, China’s transition toward cleaner steelmaking remains slow due to entrenched coal-based production and limited policy enforcement.

Meanwhile, chemical industry emissions surged, with both coal and oil consumption rising sharply in 2025. This sector has become a major emissions hotspot, offsetting gains in construction and power generation.

Gas demand also grew modestly — 3% overall — with power sector consumption up 9%. While natural gas emits less CO2 than coal, its rising use still adds to total emissions.

china coal

2025 Emissions: A Fine Balance

  • As of late 2025, China’s total CO2 emissions stood around 15.1–15.2 gigatonnes, making up roughly 30–35% of global emissions.

That’s about the same level as last year, showing a fine balance between sectors reducing emissions and others increasing them.

September 2025 provided a positive signal: emissions fell about 3% year-on-year, raising the likelihood that the full-year total will show a slight decline. Since electricity demand — and thus emissions — usually peak during hot summer months due to air conditioning, the fourth quarter will determine whether 2025 records an actual drop.

CarbonBrief also analysed that even a 1% decrease or increase would hold major symbolic value. China’s policymakers have repeatedly said that emissions can still grow before 2030, leaving the exact “peak year” undefined. A small drop in 2025 could signal that the country’s emissions have already plateaued ahead of schedule.

Despite its renewable energy boom, China is set to miss its 2025 carbon intensity target, which aimed to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 18% compared with 2020 levels. Current data suggests that only about a 12% reduction has been achieved.

CHINA EMISSIONS 2025

China’s Long-Term Climate Strategy: The Path to 2030

To meet its 2030 goal — a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels — China will now need a much steeper 22–24% cut over the next five years. This will require stronger emission control measures, industrial efficiency improvements, and faster deployment of low-carbon technologies.

The shortfall also raises the stakes for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which will likely set a more ambitious emissions reduction framework.

President Xi Jinping’s announcement in September 2025 introduced a new 2035 greenhouse gas target — to cut total emissions by 7–10% below peak levels. However, since the peak year remains undefined, the level of that peak will directly determine how steep future reductions must be.

If China’s emissions peak closer to 2030, achieving the 2035 target would require more drastic cuts. But if the peak already occurred around 2024–2025, the path toward carbon neutrality becomes smoother.

In conclusion, China’s next few years will define its climate legacy. The nation’s renewable leadership has already reshaped global clean energy markets. The next challenge lies in translating that power into sustained, absolute emission reductions — a crucial step toward a genuine net-zero future.

The post China’s Renewables Soar: 18 Months of Stable Emissions Mark Turning Point appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Meta’s $600 Billion AI Bet: Building the Next Generation of Data Centers

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Meta’s $600 Billion AI Bet: Building the Next Generation of Data Centers

Meta has announced one of the biggest technology investments in history — over $600 billion by 2028 to build new artificial intelligence (AI)-ready data centers across the United States. The plan aims to boost computing power, support local economies, and promote sustainability.

This huge spending marks a turning point for both Meta and the wider tech industry. As demand for AI grows, so does the need for energy, data processing, and new infrastructure. Meta’s goal is to meet this demand while keeping its projects efficient and climate-friendly.

Building the Next Generation of AI Infrastructure

AI systems require enormous amounts of computing power. A 2024 study reported that U.S. data centers consumed over 4% of the nation’s electricity in 2023. They also emitted about 105 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, making up more than 2% of total U.S. emissions. With AI workloads growing rapidly, these figures will rise further.

  • Meta plans to bring over 1 gigawatt of AI computing power online by 2026, supported by its purchase of more than 1.3 million GPUs this year.

These centers will have high-performance chips and strong cooling systems. These facilities will manage AI training and storage for products like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. They will also support future apps using generative AI.

The company said the new centers will be designed for both speed and sustainability. Each site will include advanced energy-saving technologies, improved water-cooling systems, and high-efficiency servers.

Meta also plans to team up with energy companies. They want the electricity for their data centers to come from renewable sources, like solar and wind. In one notable example, it is partnering with Blue Owl Capital on a $27 billion AI data center project in Louisiana. It shows both the scale of financing and the strength of public-private partnerships.

This expansion is expected to create thousands of construction and tech jobs across several states. Local communities near Meta’s campuses, such as in Iowa, Texas, and Utah, have gained from previous investments. New data centers should provide similar benefits. This includes better infrastructure and training programs for the workforce.

Greener Tech, Bigger Goals

Meta says sustainability is central to its $600 billion plan. The company adds 15 gigawatts of new clean energy capacity across the country. This helps modernize the grid and expand clean energy.

The company aims to reach net-zero emissions across its entire value chain by 2030. It already claims to run its global operations with 100% renewable energy, but future growth will test that commitment.

Meta is expanding its renewable energy partnerships. It is also signing long-term power purchase agreements to meet its climate goals. It also aims to use new tools that will help measure and cut emissions from construction materials, transportation, and hardware manufacturing.

Meta renewable energy projects map
Source: Meta

Water management is another focus. Many data centers require large volumes of water for cooling. Meta aims to be water-positive by 2030. This means it will restore more water to local ecosystems than it uses. Projects to restore wetlands and protect river basins are already underway near its U.S. facilities.

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Racing to Power the AI Boom

Meta’s move reflects a major trend across the tech industry: the race to build AI-capable infrastructure. AI models are getting bigger and more complex. They need more computing power and energy than ever.

  • According to industry surveys, 85% of current data centers are not yet AI-ready, underscoring the importance of this next-generation buildout.

In the past year, top tech firms have announced new spending on AI infrastructure. The total adds up to hundreds of billions of dollars. Meta’s $600 billion push sets a new benchmark and signals how serious this competition has become.

However, this rapid expansion also raises new challenges. Data center growth is putting pressure on electricity grids, land use, and local resources. Analysts warn that without strong planning, this surge could lead to higher energy costs or strain local water supplies.

data center electricity demand due AI 2030
Source: IEA

At the same time, the sector is innovating fast. Engineers are testing several solutions. They’re looking at liquid-cooling systems, heat-recycling technologies, and AI-based monitoring tools. These aim to cut down on waste. Many experts believe the next generation of data centers will be far more energy efficient than the ones built just a few years ago.

Big Tech Moves: Microsoft, Google, and Amazon

Meta is not alone in investing heavily in AI-ready data centers. Other big tech companies are building up their infrastructure. They need to handle the rising demand for cloud computing and AI workloads.

  • Microsoft plans to invest about $80 billion in AI and data centers.

The tech giant has over 400 facilities around the globe. The company continues to grow its Azure regions, creating thousands of construction and tech jobs. Microsoft teams up with local governments and utilities. This helps its projects boost renewable energy and support community growth.

  • Amazon/AWS runs about 135 hyperscale data centers.

The ompany invests billions each year to grow their cloud infrastructure. Its projects in states like Pennsylvania and Virginia create many jobs. This includes both construction and ongoing operations. Amazon often engages local suppliers and workforce programs to maximize regional economic benefits.

  • Google has around 130 hyperscale sites worldwide.

It is also investing billions in AI-focused facilities, with projects in Germany and India. These centers help create local jobs, including technical and construction roles. They also support community development efforts. Google emphasizes energy efficiency and clean power, aligning its growth with environmental and sustainability goals.

big tech AI data center planned growth 2030
Data source: Company announcements and industry news

These moves reveal a clear trend: major tech firms are racing to create next-gen infrastructure. They aim to boost economic growth, create jobs, and provide regional benefits.

At the same time, they face shared challenges, including land use, energy supply, and community impact. These companies work with local authorities and invest in renewable energy. This helps them grow while also being responsible.

What Lies Ahead for Meta and the Data Center Market

In the next 5 years, analysts expect a big increase in global demand for data center capacity. This is especially true for facilities built for AI workloads. If Meta’s $600 billion plan proceeds on schedule, the company could add several gigawatts of new computing capacity by the end of the decade.

This growth will also influence renewable energy markets. To power so many facilities sustainably, Meta and other tech firms will need to secure long-term renewable energy deals, invest in energy storage, and help modernize aging power grids.

Industry observers say this could create a positive cycle: as more companies demand clean power, utilities will have a greater incentive to expand renewable generation. The challenge will be ensuring that this transition happens fast enough to match the pace of AI adoption.

If Meta keeps its promises, this project might show how big AI systems can grow while being eco-friendly. The next few years will show whether the company’s vision — of technology that empowers both people and the planet — can truly become a reality.

The post Meta’s $600 Billion AI Bet: Building the Next Generation of Data Centers appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Sinks and Carbon Credits: How Nature and Innovation Are Fighting Climate Change

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As the planet faces mounting climate threats, carbon sinks have become crucial allies in reducing greenhouse gases. These natural and artificial systems absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, helping to balance human emissions.

Beyond their environmental role, carbon sinks also generate carbon credits, which drive climate finance and support global net-zero ambitions. This article explores the world’s largest carbon sinks, their significance, and how carbon credits are fueling a low-carbon economy.

Nature’s Carbon Vaults: Forests, Oceans, and Soils

Forests: Earth’s Green Lungs

Forests are among the most powerful carbon sinks on the planet. Globally, they absorb around 30% of CO2 emissions from human activities. Trees capture carbon through photosynthesis and store it in biomass and soils. Boreal forests in Russia hold the largest terrestrial carbon stock, followed by tropical forests in the Amazon and Congo Basin, and temperate forests in the U.S. and China.

Yet forests are under threat. In 2023 and 2024, extreme wildfires and deforestation sharply reduced forest carbon uptake. Bolivia, for example, suffered its largest fire season in 2024, releasing 400 million metric tons of CO2. These events turned forests from carbon sinks into net emitters, highlighting the urgent need for forest conservation, restoration, and sustainable management. Protecting forests is essential to avoid overloading natural systems that cannot absorb unlimited carbon.

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Oceans: The Planet’s Largest Carbon Sink

Oceans absorb roughly 25-30% of human-generated CO2 and about 90% of excess heat from global warming. They store carbon through biological processes and chemical absorption, sequestering it in water, sediments, and marine life.

However, rising ocean temperatures are weakening this sink. In 2023, oceans absorbed nearly a billion tons less CO2 than usual—equivalent to about half of the European Union’s annual emissions. Reduced solubility of CO2 in warmer water threatens climate stability. Protecting marine ecosystems and limiting ocean warming are critical to maintaining this natural buffer.

Blue carbon credits

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Soils and Peatlands: Hidden Giants of Carbon Storage

Soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and living vegetation combined. Through regenerative agriculture—practices like cover cropping, crop rotation, and reduced tillage—soil carbon can be enhanced. Peatlands, though covering just 3% of the land, hold vast carbon reserves. Yet drainage and degradation turn them into net emitters. Restoration efforts not only recapture carbon but also revive biodiversity, making them dual-purpose climate solutions.

Collectively, forests, oceans, and soils absorb around half of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, serving as crucial buffers against climate change. But these systems are finite and vulnerable. Recent data show that relying solely on natural sinks without reducing fossil fuel emissions is risky.

REGENRATIVE AGRICULTURE

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Artificial Carbon Sinks: Technology Steps In

While natural sinks face limits, innovation offers new pathways. Artificial carbon sinks aim to capture and store CO2 at scale.

Direct Air Capture (DAC) extracts CO2 directly from the air and stores it underground or uses it in industrial applications. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) combines biomass energy production with carbon capture to achieve net removals. Though promising, these technologies require scaling, investment, and supportive policies to complement natural sinks.

By combining natural and artificial solutions, the world can accelerate progress toward net-zero emissions while reducing the pressure on fragile ecosystems.

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Carbon Credits: Turning Carbon into Climate Finance

Carbon credits are tradable instruments representing verified reductions or removals of CO2. They provide financial incentives for businesses, landowners, and countries to invest in climate-positive projects.

Key Ways Carbon Credits Are Generated

  1. Renewable Energy Projects
    Projects replacing coal and fossil fuels with solar, wind, or other renewables generate credits from avoided emissions. Initiatives like the Coal to Clean Credit Initiative (CCCI) also prioritize social sustainability by supporting communities affected by the transition.
  2. Forestry and Land Use Projects
    Credits arise from afforestation, reforestation, avoided deforestation, and forest conservation. Regenerative agriculture and agroforestry also sequester carbon in soils while improving biodiversity and water quality.
  3. Agricultural Methane and Waste Management
    Capturing methane from livestock manure, landfills, and biogas plants generates credits. These projects prevent potent greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere.
  4. Industrial Energy Efficiency and Green Hydrogen
    Improving industrial processes to cut emissions or producing green hydrogen through renewable-powered electrolysis offer emerging credit opportunities.
  5. Soil Carbon and Peatland Restoration
    Enhancing soil carbon and restoring degraded peatlands generate removal credits, reversing emissions while improving ecosystem health.

carbon credits issuances

Verification and Standards: Every carbon credit project must measure and report its emissions reductions against a baseline. Third-party verification under standards like Verra, Gold Standard, or CCCI ensures transparency and environmental integrity.

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The World’s Largest Carbon Sinks

WORLDS LARGEST CARBON SINK

Conclusion: Balancing Emissions with Action

Carbon sinks—forests, oceans, and soils—remain indispensable in the fight against climate change. They stabilize the climate while providing biodiversity, water, and social benefits. Artificial carbon sinks and verified carbon credits further amplify their impact, linking environmental action with economic incentives.

Recent data from 2023-2025 show that natural sinks are under increasing stress: wildfires, deforestation, rising ocean temperatures, and soil degradation all reduce carbon absorption. Experts warn that relying on sinks alone to balance emissions is dangerous.

However, these systems are not unlimited. Without major emission reductions, natural sinks risk being overwhelmed. A holistic climate strategy combines:

  • Immediate cuts in fossil fuel emissions.
  • Protection and restoration of natural sinks.
  • Deployment of artificial carbon removal technologies.
  • Robust carbon credit frameworks to fund climate action.

Through this integrated approach, the world can safeguard natural carbon reservoirs, promote innovation, and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The message is clear: protecting and enhancing carbon sinks is not optional—it is essential for achieving net-zero goals and securing a resilient, sustainable future.

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