The head of the UN climate change body has urged countries to submit new “first-rate” climate targets by September, after only a handful of countries published new plans to cut emissions ahead of a February deadline.
Under the Paris Agreement, adopted nearly a decade ago, countries are expected to submit targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, and set out how they will reach them, by a – largely symbolic – deadline of February 10.
But only a handful of countries have submitted those plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to the UN so far.
They include the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Switzerland, the UK, New Zealand and the US, whose plan President Donald Trump is expected to abandon after he announced he would pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, again.
China, the European Union and India are among the big climate polluters that aren’t expected to present their plans until later this year.
In a speech on Thursday in Brazil, which is hosting the COP30 climate summit in November, Simon Stiell, the executive director of UN Climate Change, described the plans as “among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century” and argued “their quality should be the paramount consideration”.
“So taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense,” he said.
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Stiell said countries need to submit their NDC climate targets by September so they can be included in a UN assessment of planned emissions reductions, which will inform the COP30 conference.
Hosted in the Amazonian city of Belém, COP30 will be an opportunity for countries to take stock of their collective ambition and assess how far the world remains from achieving the Paris goals of limiting temperature rise to “well below 2C” and ideally no higher than 1.5C.
More than 170 countries have told the UN they intend to submit new plans this year, according to a UN official.
But Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga, of the Climate Action Tracker, an independent monitor of government action, said she was “disappointed” by the small number of plans submitted ahead of the February deadline. “We hope this marks a turning point,” she said.
Copycat Paris exits?
US disengagement has dealt a fresh blow to climate action around the world. Argentina is mulling a Paris accord exit. In Indonesia, meanwhile, the environment ministry insisted participation in the Paris deal had been beneficial to the country after its climate envoy grumbled about unfair obligations to cut emissions when the world’s second-largest culprit is withdrawing from global climate cooperation.
“Most leaders are kept on their toes by Trump. I’d assume they will only have the mind space for NDCs after the first couple of punches from Washington,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Despite the headwinds brought by the US retreat from climate cooperation, Stiell argued that shifting from fossil fuels to clean energy remains in countries’ self-interest “because of the colossal scale of economic opportunity it presents”.
Yet many smaller countries face capacity constraints in developing new carbon-cutting and adaptation plans while meeting reporting requirements under the Paris deal.
Among those most notably missing in action is Azerbaijan, the host of last year’s COP29 talks, which still hasn’t made good on a promise to produce a 1.5C-aligned climate plan despite an initial commitment to do so by COP29.
A COP29 spokesperson told Climate Home News that “Azerbaijan has been working tirelessly to deliver its NDC”, while “allocating significant resources” to hosting November’s climate summit.
David Waskow, of the World Resources Institute, reminded large emitters of their responsibility to “unveil bold new plans that offer a credible pathway to reaching their net-zero promises”. “Weak plans mean a bleak future, plain and simple,” he said.
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At COP28, countries agreed that the new plans – the third round of NDCs since the Paris pact – should set a specific target for cutting emissions by 2035, cover all sectors of the economy, all greenhouse gas emissions and be aligned with limiting warming to 1.5C, which scientists and campaigners say means no new fossil fuel projects.
Early submissions haven’t all reached that level of ambition, however.
Fossil fuel expansion
The UAE and Brazil insist their plans are aligned with the 1.5C goal, but both countries plan to expand oil and gas production over the next decade – creating “a profound mismatch between words and action”, said Gonzales-Zuniga.
Meanwhile, activists slammed New Zealand’s commitment to reduce emissions by a mere additional 1% between 2030 and 2035, at the low end of its planned range, as “pathetic“.
Among the large emitters that have submitted plans, only the UK’s target to cut emissions by 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels is considered 1.5C-aligned by Climate Action Tracker.
However, none of them improved their 2030 objective “which on the one hand makes those 2035 targets less credible and on the other, makes limiting peak global warming to 1.5C ever more difficult”, said Gonzales-Zuniga.
Speaking at an event in London on Wednesday, UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte warned that the kind of plans being put forward by countries “will not get us back on track” to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
“We’re seeing a softening of ambition from some countries in their NDCs. But… they are floors, not ceilings, and… [countries] can improve their ambition over time,” she said.
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To get on a path to limiting warming to 1.5C, annual greenhouse gas emissions must fall 42% between 2019 and 2030, and by 28% for 2C. By 2035, that increases to 57% and 37% respectively. Yet, emissions rose to record levels in 2024.
Most countries are not on track to deliver on their 2030 targets – and current policies put the world on course for more than 3C of warming, according to an assessment by the UN Environment Programme.
Hottest January on record
The warming seen in recent years has led to accelerating climate impacts and a streak of heat records. On Thursday, Europe’s climate monitoring service Copernicus said that last month was the warmest January on record as global average temperatures reached 1.75C above pre-industrial levels. This is despite an emerging La Niña weather pattern which has a temporary cooling effect on the planet.
Speaking in Brazil, UN climate chief Stiell acknowledged that “ten years on from Paris, we won’t have delivered on all our commitments”.
But he pledged to make climate negotiations “more efficient” and “make space for leaders to do concrete deals that deliver for their citizens and economies now”. This will require “fewer high-level speeches repackaging old pledges already made but nowhere near fulfilled,” he emphasised.
(Reporting by Chloé Farand; additional reporting by Matteo Civillini; editing by Megan Rowling)
The post UN gives countries more time to submit “quality” climate plans for 2035 appeared first on Climate Home News.
UN gives countries more time to submit “quality” climate plans for 2035
N.C. Gov. Josh Stein wants state lawmakers to rethink tax breaks for data centers. The industry’s opacity makes it difficult to evaluate costs and benefits.
Tax breaks for data centers in North Carolina keep as much as $57 million each year into from state and local government coffers, state figures show, an amount that could balloon to billions of dollars if all the proposed projects are built.
The Global Environment Facility (GEF), a multilateral fund that provides climate and nature finance to developing countries, has raised $3.9 billion from donor governments in its last pledging session ahead of a key fundraising deadline at the end of May.
The amount, which is meant to cover the fund’s activities for the next four years (July 2026-June 2030), falls significantly short of the previous four-year cycle for which the GEF managed to raise $5.3bn from governments. Since then, military and other political priorities have squeezed rich nations’ budgets for climate and development aid.
The facility said in a statement that it expects more pledges ahead of the final replenishment package, which is set for approval at the next GEF Council meeting from May 31 to June 3.
Claude Gascon, interim CEO of the GEF, said that “donor countries have risen to the challenge and made bold commitments towards a more positive future for the planet”. He added that the pledges send a message that “the world is not giving up on nature even in a time of competing priorities”.
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Donors under pressure
But Brian O’Donnell, director of the environmental non-profit Campaign for Nature, said the announcement shows “an alarming trend” of donor governments cutting public finance for climate and nature.
“Wealthy nations pledged to increase international nature finance, and yet we are seeing cuts and lower contributions. Investing in nature prevents extinctions and supports livelihoods, security, health, food, clean water and climate,” he said. “Failing to safeguard nature now will result in much larger costs later.”
At COP29 in Baku, developed countries pledged to mobilise $300bn a year in public climate finance by 2035, while at UN biodiversity talks they have also pledged to raise $30bn per year by 2030. Yet several wealthy governments have announced cuts to green finance to increase defense spending, among them most recently the UK.
As for the US, despite Trump’s cuts to international climate finance, Congress approved a $150 million increase in its contribution to the GEF after what was described as the organisation’s “refocus on non-climate priorities like biodiversity, plastics and ocean ecosystems, per US Treasury guidance”.
The facility will only reveal how much each country has pledged when its assembly of 186 member countries meets in early June. The last period’s largest donors were Germany ($575 million), Japan ($451 million), and the US ($425 million).
The GEF has also gone through a change in leadership halfway through its fundraising cycle. Last December, the GEF Council asked former CEO Carlos Manuel Rodriguez to step down effective immediately and appointed Gascon as interim CEO.
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New guidelines
As part of the upcoming funding cycle, the GEF has approved a set of guidelines for spending the $3.9bn raised so far, which include allocating 35% of resources for least developed countries and small island states, as well as 20% of the money going to Indigenous people and communities.
Its programs will help countries shift five key systems – nature, food, urban, energy and health – from models that drive degradation to alternatives that protect the planet and support human well-being by integrating the value of nature into production and consumption systems.
The new priorities also include a target to allocate 25% of the GEF’s budget for mobilising private funds through blended finance. This aligns with efforts by wealthy countries to increase contributions from the private sector to international climate finance.
Niels Annen, Germany’s State Secretary for Economic Cooperation and Development, said in a statement that the country’s priorities are “very well reflected” in the GEF’s new spending guidelines, including on “innovative finance for nature and people, better cooperation with the private sector, and stable resources for the most vulnerable countries”.
Aliou Mustafa, of the GEF Indigenous Peoples Advisory Group (IPAG), also welcomed the announcement, adding that “the GEF is strengthening trust and meaningful partnerships with Indigenous Peoples and local communities” by placing them at the “centre of decision-making”.
The post GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget appeared first on Climate Home News.
GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget
Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify when passing over marine heatwaves can become “supercharged”, increasing the likelihood of high economic losses, a new study finds.
Such storms also have higher rates of rainfall and higher maximum windspeeds, according to the research.
The study, published in Science Advances, looks at the economic damages caused by nearly 800 tropical cyclones that occurred around the world between 1981 and 2023.
It finds that rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones that pass near abnormally warm parts of the ocean produce nearly double – 93% – the economic damages as storms that do not, even when levels of coastal development are taken into account.
One researcher, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new analysis is a “step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future” in an increasingly warm world.
As marine heatwaves are projected to become more frequent under future climate change, the authors say that the interactions between storms and these heatwaves “should be given greater consideration in future strategies for climate adaptation and climate preparedness”.
‘Rapid intensification’
Tropical cyclones are rapidly rotating storm systems that form over warm ocean waters, characterised by low pressure at their cores and sustained winds that can reach more than 120 kilometres per hour.
The term “tropical cyclones” encompasses hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, which are named as such depending on which ocean basin they occur in.
When they make landfall, these storms can cause major damage. They accounted for six of the top 10 disasters between 1900 and 2024 in terms of economic loss, according to the insurance company Aon’s 2025 climate catastrophe insight report.
These economic losses are largely caused by high wind speeds, large amounts of rainfall and damaging storm surges.
Storms can become particularly dangerous through a process called “rapid intensification”.
Rapid intensification is when a storm strengthens considerably in a short period of time. It is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots (around 55 kilometres per hour) in a 24-hour period.
There are several factors that can lead to rapid intensification, including warm ocean temperatures, high humidity and low vertical “wind shear” – meaning that the wind speeds higher up in the atmosphere are very similar to the wind speeds near the surface.
Rapid intensification has become more common since the 1980s and is projected to become even more frequent in the future with continued warming. (Although there is uncertainty as to how climate change will impact the frequency of tropical cyclones, the increase in strength and intensification is more clear.)
Marine heatwaves are another type of extreme event that are becoming more frequent due to recent warming. Like their atmospheric counterparts, marine heatwaves are periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures.
Previous research has shown that these marine heatwaves can contribute to a cyclone undergoing rapid intensification. This is because the warm ocean water acts as a “fuel” for a storm, says Dr Hamed Moftakhari, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Alabama who was one of the authors of the new study. He explains:
“The entire strength of the tropical cyclone [depends on] how hot the [ocean] surface is. Marine heatwave means we have an abundance of hot water that is like a gas [petrol] station. As you move over that, it’s going to supercharge you.”
However, the authors say, there is no global assessment of how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves interact – or how they contribute to economic damages.
Using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) – a database of tropical cyclone paths and intensities – the researchers identify 1,600 storms that made landfall during the 1981-2023 period, out of a total of 3,464 events.
Of these 1,600 storms, they were able to match 789 individual, land-falling cyclones with economic loss data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and other official sources.
Then, using the IBTrACS storm data and ocean-temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the researchers classify each cyclone by whether or not it underwent rapid intensification and if it passed near a recent marine heatwave event before making landfall.
The researchers find that there is a “modest” rise in the number of marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones globally since 1981, but with significant regional variations. In particular, they say, there are “clear” upward trends in the north Atlantic Ocean, the north Indian Ocean and the northern hemisphere basin of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
‘Storm characteristics’
The researchers find substantial differences in the characteristics of tropical cyclones that experience rapid intensification and those that do not, as well as between rapidly intensifying storms that occur with marine heatwaves and those that occur without them.
For example, tropical cyclones that do not experience rapid intensification have, on average, maximum wind speeds of around 40 knots (74km/hr), whereas storms that rapidly intensify have an average maximum wind speed of nearly 80 knots (148km/hr).
Of the rapidly intensifying storms, those that are influenced by marine heatwaves maintain higher wind speeds during the days leading up to landfall.
Although the wind speeds are very similar between the two groups once the storms make landfall, the pre-landfall difference still has an impact on a storm’s destructiveness, says Dr Soheil Radfar, a hurricane-hazard modeller at Princeton University. Radfar, who is the lead author of the new study, tells Carbon Brief:
“Hurricane damage starts days before the landfall…Four or five days before a hurricane making landfall, we expect to have high wind speeds and, because of that high wind speed, we expect to have storm surges that impact coastal communities.”
They also find that rapidly intensifying storms have higher peak rainfall than non-rapidly intensifying storms, with marine heatwave-influenced, rapidly intensifying storms exhibiting the highest average rainfall at landfall.
The charts below show the mean sustained wind speed in knots (top) and the mean rainfall in millimetres per hour (bottom) for the tropical cyclones analysed in the study in the five days leading up to and two days following a storm making landfall.
The four lines show storms that: rapidly intensified with the influence of marine heatwaves (red); those that rapidly intensified without marine heatwaves (purple); those that experienced marine heatwaves, but did not rapidly intensify (orange); and those that neither rapidly intensified nor experienced a marine heatwave (blue).
Dr Daneeja Mawren, an ocean and climate consultant at the Mauritius-based Mascarene Environmental Consulting who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new study “helps clarify how marine heatwaves amplify storm characteristics”, such as stronger winds and heavier rainfall. She notes that this “has not been done on a global scale before”.
However, Mawren adds that other factors not considered in the analysis can “make a huge difference” in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones, including subsurface marine heatwaves and eddies – circular, spinning ocean currents that can trap warm water.
Dr Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University who was also not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that, while the intensification found by the study “makes physical sense”, it is inherently limited by the relatively small number of storms that occur. He adds:
“There’s not that many storms, to tease out the physical mechanisms and observational data. So being able to reproduce this kind of work in a physical model would be really important.”
Economic costs
Storm intensity is not the only factor that determines how destructive a given cyclone can be – the economic damages also depend strongly on the population density and the amount of infrastructure development where a storm hits. The study explains:
“A high storm surge in a sparsely populated area may cause less economic damage than a smaller surge in a densely populated, economically important region.”
To account for the differences in development, the researchers use a type of data called “built-up volume”, from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Built-up volume is a quantity derived from satellite data and other high-resolution imagery that combines measurements of building area and average building height in a given area. This can be used as a proxy for the level of development, the authors explain.
By comparing different cyclones that impacted areas with similar built-up volumes, the researchers can analyse how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves contribute to the overall economic damages of a storm.
They find that, even when controlling for levels of coastal development, storms that pass through a marine heatwave during their rapid intensification cause 93% higher economic damages than storms that do not.
They identify 71 marine heatwave-influenced storms that cause more than $1bn (inflation-adjusted across the dataset) in damages, compared to 45 storms that cause those levels of damage without the influence of marine heatwaves.
This quantification of the cyclones’ economic impact is one of the study’s most “important contributions”, says Mawren.
The authors also note that the continued development in coastal regions may increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone damages over time.
Towards forecasting
The study notes that the increased damages caused by marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones, along with the projected increases in marine heatwaves, means such storms “should be given greater consideration” in planning for future climate change.
For Radfar and Moftakhari, the new study emphasises the importance of understanding the interactions between extreme events, such as tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves.
Moftakhari notes that extreme events in the future are expected to become both more intense and more complex. This becomes a problem for climate resilience because “we basically design in the future based on what we’ve observed in the past”, he says. This may lead to underestimating potential hazards, he adds.
Mawren agrees, telling Carbon Brief that, in order to “fully capture the intensification potential”, future forecasts and risk assessments must account for marine heatwaves and other ocean phenomena, such as subsurface heat.
Lin adds that the actions needed to reduce storm damages “take on the order of decades to do right”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“All these [planning] decisions have to come by understanding the future uncertainty and so this research is a step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future.”
The post Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones
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