Dr. Ümit Şahin is senior scholar and head of the climate change program at the Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University, Turkey.
At the UN Climate Summit in New York, Turkey’s announcement of its new NDC drew less attention than China’s updated climate targets. That is hardly surprising – China’s emissions dominate global totals. But dismissing Turkey’s role would be a mistake.
As the world’s 15th-largest emitter, with rising emissions and a fast-growing economy, Turkey is an important piece of the climate puzzle. It may not be China – but then again, neither is any other country.
At a moment when the US has stepped back from multilateralism, Europe is losing momentum, and India is doubling down on coal, middle powers like Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Brazil, and Turkey will help determine whether the world meets its climate goals. That is why President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s September 24 announcement in New York deserves closer attention.
Turkey’s recent climate policy trajectory has been unusually dynamic. After years of debate over whether it should be treated as a developed or developing country under the UN climate regime, Turkey finally ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021, committing to net zero by 2053.
Since then, climate governance has expanded rapidly: the ministry was renamed the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change; a Climate Change Directorate was established; Turkey updated its initial NDC; a multi-stakeholder Climate Council was convened; and this year, Parliament passed the country’s first Climate Law. An emissions trading system is expected soon.
Meanwhile, Turkey is campaigning – alongside Australia – to host COP31 in 2026. Climate change is also moving up the domestic agenda, driven by more frequent floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. Surveys show that nearly 80 percent of Turkish citizens are concerned about climate change.
‘Business as usual’ baseline
Given this backdrop, one might have expected a stronger NDC. Instead, the targets presented fall short of genuine progress.
The full text has not yet been released, but the topline figure announced by Erdoğan is a 42 percent reduction from a reference scenario. The catch lies in the baseline. Without climate action, Turkey projects its emissions – 552 million tons in 2023 – to double in 12 years, reaching 1,109 million tons. The new target promises to cap that growth at 643 million tons by 2035.
On paper, this looks like a dramatic reduction. In practice, it locks in continued growth: emissions would still be 16 percent higher than in 2023, adding 7–8 million tons annually. Far from a cut, this is a pledge to deliver a “controlled increase” rather than a reduction.
At the Istanbul Policy Center, our recent modeling shows that if Turkey simply continues along its current path, emissions will hit 655 million tons by 2035. Strikingly, this “do nothing new” trajectory almost exactly matches the government’s pledge. Turkey’s new NDC offers no real deviation from business as usual.
Renewables on the rise but coal still big
That does not mean Turkey has done nothing. Renewable energy has grown substantially: in 2024, wind and solar accounted for 18 percent of electricity generation. Including hydro and geothermal, the share of non-fossil sources climbs to 45 percent. Electric vehicles now approach a 20 percent market share, rail electrification is increasing and building efficiency standards are tightening.
These trends have slowed emissions growth. But coal still supplies more than a third of Turkey’s electricity, and overall demand for power, vehicles, and industrial output continues to surge. Without an acceleration in renewables and electrification, emissions will remain on an upward track.
As China and EU disappoint, prospects of meeting 1.5C climate target fade
Most concerning, Turkey’s pledge is fundamentally inconsistent with its 2053 net-zero target.
The updated first NDC submitted in 2022 set 2038 as the country’s emissions peak. If emissions rise to over 650 million tons by then, cutting them to net zero within 15 years would require annual reductions exceeding 10 percent.
No country has ever sustained such rapid decarbonization. And with no plan to phase out coal, no surge in renewables, and no mainstreaming of the green transition, Turkey risks locking itself into a carbon-intensive path.
Turkey could cut emissions much faster
Yet the opportunity remains wide open. Turkey has abundant renewable resources, a young labor force, robust trade links, and access to international finance. At the Istanbul Policy Center, our Decarbonization Roadmap shows that Turkey could cut emissions to 35 percent below 2021 levels by 2035 by phasing out coal by 2036, installing 10 gigawatts of wind and solar annually, reducing fossil fuel use in buildings, and accelerating EV adoption.
None of this requires technological miracles – only political will, a clear declaration of economic transformation, and consistent policy tools.
The message is clear: Turkey’s new climate targets are not aligned with keeping global warming below 1.5C, 2C, or even 3C – and they fall far short of the country’s own 2053 net-zero pledge.
Yet with abundant renewables, strong public support, and clear economic advantages, Turkey has every reason to aim higher. The real question is not whether the country can decarbonize, but whether it will act decisively before the window of opportunity closes.
The post Turkey’s new climate pledge would control emissions growth, not offer real cuts appeared first on Climate Home News.
Turkey’s new climate pledge would control emissions growth, not offer real cuts
Climate Change
New summit in Colombia seeks to revive stalled UN talks on fossil fuel transition
A landmark conference hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands will aim to lay the foundations for renewed talks on transitioning away from fossil fuels at COP31, though organisers say it remains unclear what concrete outcomes it will deliver.
The First Conference on the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in April in the city of Santa Marta, on Colombia’s Caribbean coast, where first-moving countries, states and cities will seek to restart last year’s stalled push for a global roadmap away from coal, oil and gas.
Bastiaan Hassing, head of international climate policy for the Dutch government, told an online briefing last week that the “most obvious” impact of the conference would be for its hosts to report back to the UN climate summit on what was agreed in Santa Marta.
“Ideally, but this is also more complicated, we discuss with each other (at COP) what next steps we could take in the implementation, for instance, of paragraph 28 of the COP decision in Dubai, which talks about the global transition away from fossil fuels,” Hassings said.
He noted that there are many options for how the conference can influence UN talks on implementing the global transition away from fossil fuels, but the exact possibilities would depend on the outcome of the talks. “Rest assured that we will be looking into this,” he added.
At last year’s COP30, a bloc of 80 countries, including small island states, as well as some Latin American, European, and African countries, called for the creation of a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
But major oil and gas producers and consumers blocked the initiative in Belém. As a compromise, Brazil’s COP presidency promised to draft proposals for two voluntary roadmaps: one to end deforestation and another to guide the transition away from fossil fuels.
Brazil has launched consultations seeking input for those plans, asking governments and stakeholders about technological and economic barriers, climate justice considerations and examples of best practice. Last week, COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago told Brazilian media that he would hold discussions on his roadmap proposal at the Santa Marta conference.
Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres told reporters last week that “this is the moment to be honest about the challenges involved in transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
“It is not easy. It involves commitments from both the Global North and South. It involves interests and tensions at the subnational level,” she added. “Yet none of this diminishes its urgency or the need to reach agreements at the international multilateral level”.
Process to end fossil fuels
Vélez Torres said she hoped the Santa Marta meeting would help establish an ongoing process to advance discussions that often stall in the formal UN negotiations, where decisions are made by consensus and fossil fuel producers resist stronger language.
“This is the first conference, and we want it to be followed by another. We also want to establish a technical secretariat to sustain these debates,” said Vélez Torres, who added that the initiative would be “articulated with [the] COP30 and COP31” presidencies.
Colombia has been one of the few fossil fuel-producing countries that pledged to halt all new coal, oil and gas exploration. The move triggered backlash from industry and political opponents – with former president Iván Duque calling the decision “political and economic suicide”. The South American country depends on fossil fuels for about 10% of fiscal revenues and 4% of GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Organisers of the Santa Marta conference said they expect between 40 and 80 high-level representatives from governments, both at national and subnational levels. Colombian president Gustavo Petro is expected to participate, and invitations have been extended to California governor Gavin Newsom and Dutch prime minister Rob Jetten.
Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting
No turning back
The conference comes amid renewed volatility in global energy markets. As the US and Israel’s war in Iran disrupts oil and gas supplies and threatens to cause severe global economic damage, analysts say governments should seek to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels through investments in renewables and energy efficiency.
The upcoming Santa Marta conference should build momentum to plan that transition away from fossil fuels and signal that “there is no turning back”, said Peter Newell, professor of international relations at the University of Sussex and one of the main proponents of a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty.
“Its outcomes, which might include a declaration on key principles and next steps (for the fossil fuel transition), should give renewed vigour to efforts within the UN climate negotiations to drive the agenda forward,” Newell said.
Because major fossil fuel producers have effectively “vetoed” discussions on a fossil fuel phase-out at COPs, he added, willing countries must move forward independently with initiatives like the Santa Marta conference.
Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at the NGO 350.org, agreed that the push away from fossil fuels is “both necessary and economically inevitable”, adding that a conference on phasing out fossil fuels would have been “unthinkable just five years ago”.
Countries moving forward
COP30 host Brazil has taken the lead in developing its own national roadmap away from fossil fuels, which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva requested his government to draft late last year. The roadmap is expected to be formally developed this year.
The plan – expected to include a dedicated energy transition fund – was initially due in February but has not yet been made public as ministers continue technical discussions.
In Europe, governments have also stepped up efforts to curb fossil fuel use following the energy shocks triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.
Leo Roberts, a fossil fuel transition analyst at the climate think tank E3G, said the recent surge in gas prices linked to the Iran conflict reinforces the case for accelerating the transition to boost energy security and protect people from price shocks.
“Hopefully, Santa Marta is able to really demonstrate that not only is there momentum at the international sphere through the COP30 roadmap process, but there’s huge momentum away from fossil fuels in the real world,” he said.
The post New summit in Colombia seeks to revive stalled UN talks on fossil fuel transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
New summit in Colombia seeks to revive stalled UN talks on fossil fuel transition
Climate Change
The US’s critical minerals club threatens an equitable clean energy transition
Nick Dearden is the director of Global Justice Now.
The US push for nations to join a club that would coordinate the trade of critical minerals outside China signals a giant shift in Washington’s vision for how to govern the global economy But it will, unfortunately, also hinder the clean energy transition.
Critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, copper and rare earths are needed to manufacture clean energy technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines and batteries on which the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy depends.
But these minerals also have applications for a wide range of advanced technologies, not least military equipment and digital infrastructure. In recent years, AI deployment and the build out of data centres have become the primary political justification for mineral extraction.
No US official mentioned clean energy technologies as they promoted the new minerals club in Washington last month. Instead, the trading bloc aims to break China’s dominance over mineral supply chains and ensure US access to the resources it needs for digital and military sectors.
Analysis by Global Justice Now found that almost one in five of the 33 minerals that the UK identified as critical in 2024 are not needed to achieve the International Energy Agency’s decarbonisation pathways. A further 15 play only a very small role and only seven require significant production increases for the clean energy transition.
Prioritise minerals for the energy transition
The urgency of addressing climate change means we must prioritise the use of minerals to rapidly and equitably wean the global economy off coal, oil and gas while reducing resource overconsumption in the Global North. The US approach could make this prioritisation a lot harder.
For Washington, this isn’t about addressing climate change, but America’s ever deepening rivalry with China, a renewable energy superpower. In contrast, Donald Trump has called climate change “a hoax” and overseen unprecedented climate deregulation in favour of fossil fuels.
The minerals trading bloc risks diverting mineral resources towards carbon-intensive military and technology build-up in the US, which is directly at odds with the need to use these resources to manufacture clean energy technologies.
What’s more, for the green transition to be just, fair and equitable, resource-rich governments must be able to refine and add value to their resources, creating jobs and economic development in the process. But Trump’s trading bloc is intended to tell “partner” countries what role they should play in the global mineral supply chains to best serve US interests.
Serving US interests rather than clean energy
Countries with the smallest and least developed economies stand to lose out.
More than a dozen countries have signed bilateral deals with the Trump administration. The terms of the deals appear to get better the richer a country is.
At the poorer end is the deal with DRC – an outright piece of imperialism with one-sided obligations that override the country’s mineral sovereignty by giving the US first dibs on a range of strategic mining sites and the energy needed to power these sites.
‘America needs you’: US seeks trade alliance to break China’s critical mineral dominance
In the middle, Malaysia committed to facilitate American involvement in its mineral sector and refrain from banning or imposing quotas on exports of raw minerals to the US. This risks restricting the development of Malaysia’s refining capacities, making value addition harder.
At the top end is the UK, which has signed a deal that includes a commitment to streamline mineral permitting, but appears more focused on facilitating financial services to members of the trading bloc.
Wherever countries sit in the pecking order, the agreements signed with the US limit governments’ strategic sovereignty over their resources and stifle their ability to create a more sustainable economy which meets people’s needs.
Tools for a way forward
There is some hope, however. Trump’s mineral trading bloc would operate with profoundly different rules than the neoliberal trade deals, which we have become used to.
Some of its components – like price floors and state ownership – have not been seen in trade deals for a long time. In the right hands, these tools could help governments plan, coordinate and prioritise a globally just green transition and break away from the ‘market knows best’ logic which has long locked poorer countries into low-value exports of raw materials.
If governments work together, outside the coercive US trade bloc, to adopt some of these tools and policies, they might be able to draw local benefits from their mineral wealth and build a genuinely fair and equitable trade in transition minerals.
The post The US’s critical minerals club threatens an equitable clean energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
The US’s critical minerals club threatens an equitable clean energy transition
Climate Change
Greenpeace urges governments to defend international law, as evidence suggests breaches by deep sea mining contractors
SYDNEY/FIJI, Monday 9 March 2026 — As the International Seabed Authority (ISA) opens its 31st Session today, Greenpeace International is calling on member states to take firm and swift action if breaches by subsidiaries and subcontractors of The Metals Company (TMC) are established. Evidence compiled and submitted to the ISA’s Secretary General suggests that violations of exploration contracts may have occurred.
Louisa Casson, Campaigner, Greenpeace International, said: “In July, governments at the ISA sent a clear message: rogue companies trying to sidestep international law will face consequences. Turning that promise into action at this meeting is far more important than rushing through a Mining Code designed to appease corporate interests rather than protect the common good. As delegations from around the world gather today, they must unite and confront the US and TMC’s neo-colonial resource grab and make clear that deep sea mining is a reckless gamble humanity cannot afford.”
The ISA launched an inquiry at its last Council meeting in July 2025, in response to TMC USA seeking unilateral deep sea mining licences from the Trump administration. If the US administration unilaterally allows mining of the international seabed, it would be considered in violation of international law.
Greenpeace International has compiled and submitted evidence to the ISA Secretary-General, Leticia Carvalho, to support the ongoing inquiry into deep sea mining contractors. This evidence shows that those supporting these unprecedented rogue efforts to start deep sea mining unilaterally via President Trump could be in breach of their obligations with the ISA.
The analysis focuses on TMC’s subsidiaries — Nauru Ocean Resources Inc (NORI) and Tonga Offshore Mining Ltd (TOML) — as well as Blue Minerals Jamaica (BMJ), a company linked to Dutch-Swiss offshore engineering firm Allseas, one of TMC’s subcontractors and largest shareholders. The information compiled indicates that their activities may violate core contractual obligations under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). If these breaches are confirmed, NORI and TOML’s exploration contracts, which expire in July 2026 and January 2027 respectively, the ISA should take action, including considering not renewing the contract.
Letícia Carvalho has recently publicly advocated for governments to finalise a streamlined deep sea mining code this year and has expressed her own concerns with the calls from 40 governments for a moratorium. At a time when rogue actors are attempting to bypass or weaken the international system, establishing rules and regulations that will allow mining to start could mean falling into the trap of international bullies. A Mining Code would legitimise and drive investment into a flagging industry, supporting rogue actor companies like TMC and weakening deterrence against unilateral mining outside the ISA framework.
Casson added: “Rushing to finalise a Mining Code serves the interests of multinational corporations, not the principles of multilateralism. With what we know now, rules to mine the deep sea cannot coexist with ocean protection. Governments are legally obliged to only authorise deep sea mining if it can demonstrably benefit humanity – and that is non-negotiable. As the long list of scientific, environmental and social concerns with this industry keeps growing, what is needed is a clear political signal that the world will not be intimidated into rushing a mining code by unilateral threats and will instead keep moving towards a moratorium on deep sea mining.”
—ENDS—
Key findings from the full briefing:
- Following TMC USA’s application to mine the international seabed unilaterally, NORI and TOML have amended their agreements to provide payments to Nauru and Tonga, respectively, if US-authorised commercial mining goes ahead. This sets up their participation in a financial mechanism predicated on mining in contradiction to UNCLOS.
- NORI and TOML have signed intercompany intellectual property and data-sharing agreements with TMC USA, and the data obtained by NORI and TOML under the ISA exploration contracts has been key to facilitating TMC USA’s application under US national regulations.
- Just a few individuals hold key decision-making roles across the TMC and all relevant subsidiaries, making claims of independent management ungrounded. NORI, TOML, and TMC USA, while legally distinct, are managed as an integrated corporate group with a single, coordinated strategy under the direct control and strategic direction of TMC.
-
Greenhouse Gases7 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Climate Change7 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Spanish-language misinformation on renewable energy spreads online, report shows
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change Videos2 years ago
The toxic gas flares fuelling Nigeria’s climate change – BBC News
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits




