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Trump's Tariffs and Climate Rollbacks: How 2025 is Shaking Copper Markets and Clean Energy Goals

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 is already shaking up industries across the globe, particularly those reliant on stable trade and environmental policies. From sweeping tariffs to anticipated rollbacks of key climate initiatives, the impact of these changes could redefine global markets and state-led sustainability efforts.

Among the sectors feeling the weight of this uncertainty are copper markets and renewable energy initiatives.

Copper: A Market Under Pressure

Copper, the backbone of global infrastructure and clean energy transitions, faces unprecedented challenges. Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could range from 10% to 100%, are poised to disrupt the market’s fundamentals. 

Targeting major U.S. trading partners, including China, Canada, and Mexico, these tariffs are expected to inflate prices and dampen demand.

David Davidson, an analyst at Paradigm Capital, warns that these trade policies could lead to a tit-for-tat scenario, specifically noting:

“If we get a tit-for-tat trade war, then kiss global economic growth expectation goodbye.”

A strong U.S. dollar and sustained high interest rates, as the Federal Reserve grapples with likely inflation, could further compound these issues by making copper imports prohibitively expensive.

China, which consumes nearly half of the world’s copper, is especially critical in this equation. Economic slowdowns or retaliatory tariffs from China could reverberate across global markets, suppressing demand for the metal. 

The country’s faltering property market, which has historically driven copper demand, remains a weak point. Analysts speculate that a substantial stimulus package from China might offset some of these challenges, but its timing and scale remain uncertain.

Tight Supply Chains

Adding to the turmoil is a looming deficit in copper concentrate supplies. S&P Global Commodity Insights projects a supply shortfall of 540,467 metric tons in 2025. This is exacerbated by delays in reopening First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine.

The mine’s closure in 2023 following a dispute with Panama has left the market scrambling for alternatives, and analysts doubt it will resume operations before 2026.

Despite a projected surplus in refined copper, the concentrate deficit could severely impact smelters, particularly in Asia, which rely on steady supplies. Prices will reflect this tension, with the London Metal Exchange forecasting an average copper price of $9,734 per metric ton in 2025.

copper price 2025

Last year, there was also a recorded deficit but with an anticipated electric vehicle (EV) boom, where copper is a key component, the demand for this metal will grow. BHP projects a 70% surge in global copper demand, exceeding 50 million tonnes annually by 2050. The traded metal is anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 2%.

copper demand projection 2050 BHP

Blue States vs. Trump: The Battle for Climate Progress

While federal climate policy may see significant rollbacks under Trump, blue states (which lean Democratic) are gearing up for a fight. State leaders in progressive regions are determined to protect climate initiatives, even as federal support wanes. 

Governors from the U.S. Climate Alliance and America Is All In coalition have pledged to relentlessly advance sustainability efforts.

California, a leader in climate action, faces the dual challenge of maintaining its ambitious emissions reduction targets while fending off federal interference. 

A key battleground is the state’s waiver to set stricter vehicle emissions standards than those enforced federally. This waiver, which allows other states to adopt California’s rules, is critical to the state’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. 

states adopted California emission standards

Revoking this waiver, as Trump is widely expected to attempt, could disrupt these efforts and ignite legal battles. Noel Perry, founder of the California think tank Next 10, emphasized the importance of the waiver. Perry noted that:

“California will fight tooth and nail if the Trump administration is going to again attempt to take that waiver away.” 

Fiscal Challenges and Climate Goals

Complicating matters further are fiscal challenges in many blue states. California, New York, and Maryland, among others, face significant budget deficits that threaten to undermine their climate initiatives. 

California has already reduced its climate-related spending by 21% for the next 8 years, though voters approved a $10 billion climate bond in November 2024 to fund drought mitigation and renewable energy infrastructure.

In New York, a $13.9 billion budget gap between 2025 and 2029 is putting pressure on the state’s ambitious climate goals. The state’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act mandates 70% renewable energy by 2030 and full decarbonization by 2050. However, achieving these targets amid fiscal constraints and uncertain federal policies will be a steep uphill battle.

2025: A Year of High Stakes for Sustainability and Global Markets

Despite the obstacles, blue states are not backing down. Washington Governor Jay Inslee, speaking at the COP29 climate summit, declared that state-led initiatives remain unstoppable. He remarked that Trump won’t be able to stop any of the states from moving forward, citing Washington’s cap-and-invest program and low-carbon fuel standards as examples.

California has allocated $25 million for litigation costs to defend its climate policies. Legal battles could intensify as the Trump administration targets state-level initiatives. 

Trump’s trade and climate policies have far-reaching implications. For the copper market, they risk destabilizing supply chains and inflating prices, which could hinder the global clean energy transition. 

Meanwhile, his administration’s deregulatory agenda poses challenges to state-led climate progress, even as blue states demonstrate resilience and determination.

With 2025 shaping up as a year of uncertainty, the stakes are higher than ever. Stakeholders, especially industries and governments, must balance economic growth with the urgent need to address climate change. How these competing priorities unfold will define the next chapter in the global effort to achieve sustainability.

The post Trump’s Tariffs and Climate Rollbacks: How 2025 is Shaking Copper Markets and Clean Energy Goals appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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