On February 16, Hirono Town signed a comprehensive partnership agreement with Fager Co., Ltd. to promote decarbonized agriculture and strengthen the local rice brand. The agreement focused on cutting greenhouse gas emissions while improving rice quality and farmer incomes.

Hirono’s mayor, Kazuma Komatsu, and Fager’s CEO, Takahiro Ishizaki, formalized the deal at a ceremony marking a new step toward linking climate action with rural economic revival.

A Climate Challenge Turns Into Opportunity

Rice farmers across Japan have struggled with extreme heat in recent years. High temperatures during the growing season have reduced grain quality and increased the risk of damage. In Fukushima’s coastal Hamadori region, growers have felt this pressure directly.

At the same time, Japan’s agricultural sector has begun to see decarbonization not just as an environmental duty but also as a business opportunity. Farmers can now generate carbon credits by reducing emissions from rice paddies and other farm activities. These credits create a new income stream while supporting national climate targets.

Hirono Town had already declared its ambition to become a Zero Carbon City by 2050. This partnership aligned with that goal. It aimed to make local agriculture more resilient, profitable, and climate-friendly.

How the Carbon Credit Model Works

Under the agreement, farmers in Hirono will adopt proven methods to reduce methane emissions from rice paddies. One key technique involves extending the mid-season drainage period. Farmers temporarily drain water from paddy fields during cultivation. This process lowers methane emissions, which normally form in flooded conditions.

Growers will also consider using biochar, a carbon-rich material that stores carbon in soil and improves soil health. Together, these measures can generate government-certified J-Credits.

Japan’s J-Credit system is a national carbon offset program. It certifies emission reductions or removals from activities such as renewable energy use, energy efficiency, forest management, and low-emission farming. Companies buy these credits to offset their emissions or meet climate goals. As a result, farmers and local governments gain a new source of revenue.

Fager has built strong experience in this field. The company supports J-Credit creation in 36 prefectures across Japan. In 2024 alone, it generated about 136,000 tons of CO₂ credits from agricultural projects. Now, it will bring that expertise to Hirono.

Reinventing “Hirono Rice”

Beyond carbon markets, the initiative aims to build a strong premium brand. Farmers will market locally grown Koshihikari rice as “Hirono Rice.” The brand will highlight three features: environmentally friendly cultivation, heat resilience, and high quality.

As extreme heat becomes more common, Japanese consumers are paying closer attention to how food is produced. Climate-smart branding could give Hirono’s rice a competitive edge.

One participating farmer, Toshirei Suzuki, already extended the mid-season drainage period in his paddies. He reported no negative impact on yield or grain quality. In fact, his rice ranked first in taste within Hirono Town, and all of his harvest met first-class standards. He said he joined the program smoothly and wants to continue if it benefits the environment.

His experience offered early proof that emission reductions and quality improvements can go hand in hand.

Digital Tools and Heat Countermeasures

The agreement goes beyond carbon credits as it also promotes agricultural digital transformation, often called agricultural DX.

Hirono and Fager will explore installing water-level and water-temperature sensors in paddy fields. These tools help farmers monitor conditions in real time. With better data, growers can respond quickly to heat stress and water management challenges.

Revenue from carbon credits will fund these upgrades. The partners aim to create a circular model. Farmers reduce emissions, generate credits, sell them, and reinvest the proceeds into better cultivation systems and climate adaptation measures.

This cycle connects environmental action directly to farm income and resilience.

A Model Linked to National Reconstruction

The partnership also fits into broader reconstruction efforts in Fukushima. Fager joined the national “Fukushima Reconstruction Living Lab” initiative led by Japan’s Reconstruction Agency. The program matches private firms with local governments to solve regional challenges.

In this case, agriculture stood at the center. By combining decarbonization, branding, and digital tools, Hirono aims to strengthen its rural economy while supporting recovery in the Hamadori area.

If successful, the model could expand beyond Hirono to other parts of Fukushima and eventually across Japan.

Japan Scales Up Carbon Markets to Hit 2050 Net Zero

Japan has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It also aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 46 percent from 2013 levels by 2030. To reach these goals, the government has steadily expanded carbon markets and sector-based policies.

In April 2026, Japan will introduce a full-scale emissions trading scheme (ETS). Around 300 to 400 companies that emit more than 100,000 tons of greenhouse gases per year must participate. The system is expected to cover roughly 60 percent of national emissions.

To support this shift, the government launched the Green Transformation (GX) Promotion Strategy. The plan outlines more than 150 trillion yen in public and private climate investment over the next decade. It includes a 20 trillion yen early-stage package backed by GX Economic Transition Bonds. The goal is to stimulate new markets while keeping economic growth stable.

Japan has taken a cautious and pragmatic approach. Policymakers design climate rules that businesses can realistically follow. The Japan Business Federation, known as Keidanren, plays a key role in shaping legislation. Its involvement helps ensure that new climate policies remain practical and economically viable.

The Role of the J-Credit Scheme

The J-Credit Scheme plays a central role in Japan’s domestic carbon market. Three ministries jointly manage it: the Ministry of the Environment, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

As of May 2025, the scheme had registered 1,262 projects. It had certified a total of 12.08 million tons of CO₂ credits. The government now targets 15 million tons of certified J-Credits by fiscal year 2030.

Projects can register individually or as programmatic bundles that group many small activities into one larger project. This structure makes it easier for small farmers to participate.

Hirono’s rice initiative fits well within this framework. It visualizes emission reductions measurably and links them directly to local economic benefits.

A Blueprint for Sustainable Rural Growth

The Hirono–Fager partnership showed how climate policy can work on the ground. It connected national carbon markets with everyday farming practices. It turned methane reduction into income. It funded heat countermeasures with carbon revenue. And it built a premium rice brand around sustainability.

If the project delivers as planned, Hirono Town could become a model for climate-smart agriculture in Japan. The town’s rice would stand not only for taste and quality, but also for environmental responsibility and resilience in a warming world.

• LATEST: 2026 Could Redefine Voluntary and Compliance Carbon Market Convergence, with Japan Leading the Way

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The United States is stepping up its push for small modular reactors (SMRs) in the Philippines. In mid-February 2026, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) announced $2.7 million in technical assistance for Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN). The work will review advanced U.S. SMR designs and create an implementation roadmap for what could become the country’s first SMR nuclear power plant.

USTDA framed the project as “vendor-neutral” evaluation support that can help the Philippines compare options and plan the steps needed to move from concept to construction. The goal is to speed early planning, such as technical screening and sequencing, before major capital decisions.

This is not a power plant approval. It is a funded study and planning effort. Still, it signals stronger U.S. backing for nuclear cooperation at a time when the Philippines is looking for more reliable, low-carbon power sources.

Meralco Chairman Manuel Pangilinan remarked:

“Through the generosity of the US government, we are laying the groundwork for the responsible integration of nuclear into our energy mix through small modular reactors. This offers a safe and responsible pathway towards energy security for generations to come.”

Coal Dependence and Rising Demand Drive the Debate

The Philippines still relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity. Official DOE data show that in 2024, total power generation reached 126,941 GWh. Coal produced 79,359 GWh, which is about 62.5% of the country’s electricity that year.

• Natural gas produced 18,047 GWh (about 14%). Renewable energy produced 28,193 GWh (about 22%). Oil produced 1,342 GWh (about 1%).

On the capacity side, the DOE reported 29,706 MW of total installed generating capacity in 2024, with the following breakdown:

• Coal capacity was 13,006 MW (about 44%);
• Renewable energy capacity was 9,520 MW (about 32%);
• Natural gas was 3,732 MW (more than 12%); and
• Oil was 3,448 MW (almost 12%).

Demand growth also shapes this debate. In the DOE’s power planning materials, the country’s peak demand is projected to rise from 16,596 MW in 2022 to 68,483 MW by 2050, which the DOE notes equals an average annual growth rate of 5%.

These numbers help explain why policymakers and utilities are reviewing many options at once. They include grid upgrades, energy efficiency, renewables, storage, gas, and now nuclear.

SMRs Explained: Smaller Reactors, Big Expectations

An SMR is a nuclear reactor designed to be smaller than traditional large reactors. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines SMRs as reactors with a capacity of up to 300 MW(e) per unit. That is roughly one-third of the size of many conventional reactors.

The image is an example of an SMR design by NuScale Power, an American SMR company.

Supporters point to three practical features. First, SMRs aim for modular construction. Developers may build parts in factories and assemble them on site. Second, SMRs can be scaled by adding modules over time. Third, SMRs can provide steady output that does not depend on weather, which can help a grid manage variability from wind and solar.

At the same time, SMRs do not remove hard requirements. Any nuclear project still needs a strong regulator, safe site selection, trained staff, emergency planning, fuel and waste plans, and long-term financing. These items often drive timelines and costs, especially for a first plant in a country that is new to commercial nuclear power.

Small Reactors, Big Global Ambitions

Around the world, interest in small modular reactors is growing fast. Designers have created more than 120 SMR designs in recent years, with dozens in early review or licensing stages.

The global market for SMRs is also expanding. Analysts estimate the value of SMR markets at several billion U.S. dollars today, and rising over the next decade. Some forecasts show markets increasing to roughly double or more by the early 2030s, around $10–16 billion.

Installed SMR capacity is also expected to rise. Industry reports project several hundred megawatts of capacity by 2030, with further growth as more designs reach construction, up to 2.0 GW per IEA forecast.

Countries in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific are leading deployment and planning. Many governments see SMRs as a way to add reliable, low-carbon power alongside renewables.

Global forecasts to 2050 show SMRs could play a bigger role in clean energy systems, especially under scenarios that aim for low emissions and stable power. However, real deployment depends on licensing, investment, and supply chain development.

The 123 Agreement: Legal Groundwork for Nuclear Cooperation

A key reason U.S. firms can offer nuclear technology is the U.S.–Philippines Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, often called a “123 Agreement.” The U.S. State Department said the agreement entered into force on July 2, 2024. It sets the legal framework for civil nuclear cooperation and can support exports of nuclear material, equipment, and components under U.S. rules.

In practice, this type of agreement is one building block. It does not select a reactor design and does not guarantee financing. It does create the conditions for deeper technical engagement, training, and potential commercial activity, as long as both sides meet non-proliferation and regulatory requirements.

From Planning to Licensing: Mapping the Nuclear Timeline

The Philippines began its nuclear journey after the 1973 oil crisis. It built the 621 MWe Bataan Nuclear Power Plant in 1984 at a cost of USD460 million. However, safety and financial concerns stopped it from operating. The plant was never fueled but has been maintained.

The DOE has publicly set nuclear targets in its 2022 planning. Reporting around the Philippine Energy Plan has cited a pathway that aims for at least 1,200 MW of nuclear capacity by 2032, rising to 2,400 MW by 2035, and 4,800 MW by 2050.

The DOE has also discussed regulatory readiness. In a November 2025 media release, the DOE said the Philippines aims to begin accepting nuclear power plant license applications by 2026, linked to the creation of the country’s nuclear safety regulator under Republic Act No. 12305.

International reviews add more context. In December 2024, the IAEA reported that the Philippines was making progress on nuclear infrastructure development, while still working through the many steps needed for a full nuclear power program.

Against that timeline, the USTDA-MGEN work looks like an “early stage” accelerator. It helps narrow design choices and map steps. It does not replace the national licensing process.

Geothermal’s Role in a Future Nuclear Mix

The Philippines already has a major source of steady renewable power: geothermal energy. DOE statistics list 1,952 MW of geothermal installed generating capacity in 2024. Geothermal generation reached 10,789 GWh in 2024.

This matters for the SMR discussion because many people describe nuclear as “baseload,” meaning it can run day and night. In the Philippines, geothermal already provides a similar kind of steady output in many areas. The challenge is that geothermal expansion depends on location, drilling success, and up-front exploration risk.

This is why planners often look at a mix. They can expand renewables like geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar, while adding storage and grid upgrades. They can also evaluate nuclear for future reliability needs, especially if coal plants retire over time.

For the U.S. side, the near-term goal is clear. It wants U.S. designs and services to be part of the shortlist. For the Philippines, the task is also clear. It must match any technology choice to national needs, grid limits, safety rules, and long-term affordability.

• READ MORE: What is SMR? The Ultimate Guide to Small Modular Reactors

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Disseminated on behalf of Alaska Energy Metals Corporation.

The global nickel market enters 2026 after a bruising and uneven year. In 2025, macroeconomic stress, trade disruptions, and deep supply imbalances reshaped pricing and sentiment. Although short-term rallies have returned, the underlying structure of the market remains fragile. As a result, 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by volatility rather than a sustained recovery.

A Challenging Backdrop from 2025

To understand where nickel is headed, it helps to revisit the environment it emerged from. In 2025, global trade flows came under pressure after the US implemented new tariff policies. These measures disrupted supply chains and dampened confidence across industrial commodities. At the same time, global manufacturing growth slowed, weighing heavily on the broader nonferrous metals complex.

SMM reported highlighted some significant points. Adding to the uncertainty, the US Federal Reserve sent mixed signals throughout the year. Expectations around interest rate cuts shifted repeatedly. Each change altered risk appetite and triggered sharp moves across commodity markets. Nickel, already vulnerable due to oversupply, struggled to attract sustained buying interest.

China attempted to offset some of these pressures. Policymakers rolled out proactive fiscal measures and maintained a moderately accommodative monetary policy. They also focused on boosting domestic demand and diversifying export routes to reduce exposure to trade frictions. In July, China introduced its “anti-involution” policy, aimed at curbing destructive price competition across industries.

Even so, nickel underperformed. While other nonferrous metals showed mixed results, nickel remained constrained by a clear mismatch between supply and demand. Prices trended lower for most of the year. LME nickel opened near $15,365 per tonne and slid to lows around $13,865 per tonne, marking a sharp reset in the price center.

• SEE DETAILS: Nickel Forecast 2025: Can $66 Billion Investment Solve the Supply Gap? 

2026 Nickel Price Outlook: A Volatile Start to the New Cycle

Momentum shifted suddenly toward the end of the year. From mid-December, nickel prices began climbing rapidly.

• By early January, LME prices had surged past $18,000 per tonne, the first time in more than a year. In just 12 trading sessions, prices jumped nearly 20%, catching many traders off guard.

Several factors fueled this rebound. Demand signals from China improved modestly, particularly from stainless steel mills and EV battery producers. At the same time, speculative positioning adjusted as supply risks from Indonesia returned to the spotlight.

Trading Economics analysis stated that Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, hinted at a potential 34% reduction in output for this year. Meanwhile, Vale temporarily halted operations at its Pomalaa and Bahodopi mines while waiting for regulatory approvals. Although its flagship Sorowako mine continued operating, these pauses added to market caution.

Still, the rally faced clear limits. Inventory levels remained elevated. Combined LME registered and off-warrant stocks jumped nearly 58% last year, reaching more than 367,000 tonnes. In addition, large shadow inventories in Singapore and Kaohsiung continued to hang over the market. As a result, every price spike met resistance.

Price Expectations Remain Capped

Most analysts expect nickel prices to settle into a narrow band rather than trend sharply higher. Forecasts largely cluster between $15,000 and $16,000 per tonne. Several major institutions attribute the restrained outlook to ongoing surpluses.

• The World Bank’s 2026 nickel price outlook also revealed nickel prices to stay around US$15,500, rising to US$16,000 in 2027.
• Trading Economics data indicated that nickel futures moved back up to nearly $17,800 per tonne, reversing last week’s steep decline as buyers stepped back into the market.

Analysts consider that the differences in price forecasts primarily reflect contrasting views on how strictly Indonesia will enforce production limits and how quickly global manufacturing activity is expected to recover.

• CHECK: LIVE NICKEL PRICES

Nickel Demand Drivers Show Modest Growth

• Stainless steel: remains the dominant driver, accounting for about 70% of total demand. Consumption may rise to roughly 2.45 to 2.5 million tonnes. China’s production recovery offers support, while infrastructure projects in emerging markets add incremental demand. Still, no major surge is expected.
• Battery and EV application: They make up roughly 13% to 15% of demand. Nickel use in this segment could reach up to 500,000 tonnes. High-nickel cathodes continue to support premium EV models.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, demand for battery-grade nickel is expected to surge, tripling by 2030. This growth will largely be due to mid- and high-performance EVs in Western markets.

Other uses, including alloying, plating, aerospace, and electronics, provide steady but smaller contributions. A broader manufacturing recovery and net-zero investments could lift demand slightly, while faster EV adoption remains the main upside risk.

• READ MORE: Nickel Supply Shock: Indonesia’s 120M Ton Cut and Its Ripple on Carbon Markets 

Supply-Demand Balance Stays Uneven

According to SMM, the nickel market will remain oversupplied through the year, remaining between 120,000 and 275,000 tonnes. While short-term rallies may continue, oversupply will remain the dominant force.

On the supply side, Indonesia’s refined nickel output stays high, supported by sunk investments and low operating costs. On the demand side, growth remains steady but unspectacular.

Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at London-Based ING Group, explained that the global nickel market is still set to remain oversupplied, with a projected surplus of about 261,000 metric tonnes. As a result, any production cuts would need to be deep and sustained to meaningfully shift market fundamentals.

China’s real estate support policies may provide limited relief for stainless steel consumption. However, a strong housing rebound appears unlikely, and any improvement is expected to be gradual. Similarly, demand from ternary batteries faces structural headwinds. Solid-state batteries remain years away from large-scale commercial use, and near-term battery chemistry trends do not favor a sharp jump in nickel intensity.

As a result, the average price level may drift lower over time. Tightening ore supply could briefly push prices above $16,000 per tonne. However, high inventories and excess capacity will take longer to absorb.

Why Nickel Matters for US Critical Mineral Independence?

Nickel plays a critical role in military-grade alloys, advanced weapons systems, electric vehicle batteries, grid-scale energy storage, and broader clean energy infrastructure. Despite its importance, the United States remains almost entirely dependent on imports for nickel, while China controls much of the global processing and supply chain. This reliance has become a clear strategic risk, one that domestic resources need more exploration.

And this is the reason America’s push to secure its critical mineral supply is gaining real momentum.

Spotlight: Alaska Energy Metals – America’s Nickel Backbone

At the center of this shift is Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (TSX-V: AEMC, OTCQB: AKEMF) and its Eureka deposit, the largest documented nickel resource in the United States. As Washington intensifies efforts to reshore critical supply chains for national security and clean energy goals, AEMC’s Nikolai Project in Alaska is steadily gaining recognition as a strategic domestic asset.

At the same time, the project aligns closely with the Trump administration’s executive orders focused on critical minerals and Alaska resource development. Those directives sought to speed up domestic production, curb reliance on foreign suppliers, and reinforce US security interests.

Against this backdrop, Nikolai stands out as a fully US-based “Sulphide nickel and battery metal project” to meet the country’s metal needs for the energy transition. Significantly, it has two claim blocks: Eureka and Canwell.

Eureka: The Largest Known Nickel Resource in the US

The Eureka deposit is not just large—it is nationally strategic. It hosts nickel alongside copper, cobalt, chromium, iron, and platinum group metals, including platinum and palladium. This metal mix makes Eureka highly relevant for both defense systems and the expanding clean energy economy.

According to the 2025 Mineral Resource Estimate, Eureka contains:

• Indicated Resource of 814 million tonnes grading 0.42% nickel equivalent, representing 5.62 billion pounds of nickel in situ.
• Inferred Resource of 896 million tonnes grading 0.39% nickel equivalent, totaling 9.38 billion pounds of nickel in situ.

Combined, the deposit contains more than 15 billion pounds of nickel, enough to support American demand for decades.

FAST-41 Listing Accelerates the Nikolai Project

A major step forward came when the Nikolai Project was accepted onto the FAST-41 Transparency Dashboard by the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council.

• The initial phase focuses on infrastructure upgrades, including rehabilitation and extension of the Rainy Creek Mining Trail, installation of temporary bridges, and development of an on-site camp.

These improvements will lower exploration costs, improve safety, enable better site access, and speed up the transition to advanced exploration and development at Eureka. Just as important, FAST-41 provides transparency, inter-agency coordination, and defined permitting milestones.

Key catalysts ahead

AEMC is entering a phase with several near- and mid-term value drivers. These include a first-pass metallurgical study to assess metal recovery, the potential for a major US Department of Defense grant, completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment, and continued drilling at the Angliers target. Each step strengthens the investment and strategic case for Eureka.

Nickel Oversupply Overseas, Opportunity in the US

In summary, the nickel market faces another complex year. Structural oversupply, elevated inventories, and cautious demand growth define the landscape. Although policy shifts in Indonesia and short-term demand improvements can trigger sharp rallies, fundamentals continue to cap sustained upside. For now, nickel remains a market driven more by volatility than by balance.

As the US rebuilds its domestic critical mineral supply chain, assets like Eureka are becoming indispensable. With its scale, multi-metal profile, federal permitting support, and alignment with national policy priorities, Alaska Energy Metals Corporation is positioning itself as a key player in America’s push for resource security. In a world increasingly defined by competition for critical metals, Eureka has the potential to become the backbone of the US nickel supply for generations.

READ MORE: Nickel Demand to Triple by 2030: Can the Market Keep Up?

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