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Royal Caribbean’s (RCL) Big Profits Meet Carbon Challenges of the Cruise Industry

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) kicked off 2026 with strong financial results for 2025. The company’s success reflects a broader recovery and growth in the global cruise industry. Alongside financial gains, the industry faces growing scrutiny over environmental impact. 

Cruise ships are highly carbon-intensive per passenger, prompting major lines—including Royal Caribbean, MSC, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line—to invest in cleaner fuels, energy-efficient technologies, and shore power solutions. 

This article looks at the cruise sector’s financial health, passenger growth, and environmental issues. It also discusses how companies are working to balance profits with sustainability.

Smooth Sailing: 2025 Profits and 2026 Outlook

Royal Caribbean Cruises had solid financial results in 2025 and a positive outlook for 2026. The company made nearly $18 billion in revenue in 2025, up from about $16.48 billion in 2024.

Net income also grew to about $4.27 billion, compared with roughly $2.88 billion the year before. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $15.64, showing improved profitability.

Royal Caribbean Cruise financial results 2025
Source: Royal Caribbean Cruises

The company also generated a strong operating cash flow of about $6.4–6.5 billion and returned around $2 billion to shareholders during the year. Record cruise bookings and higher ticket prices helped drive these results.

Royal Caribbean’s board expects double-digit revenue growth in 2026, along with higher capacity. Adjusted EPS is projected between $17.70 and $18.10. Around two-thirds of 2026 cruise capacity is already booked at strong pricing, supporting this forecast.

Jason Liberty, the company CEO, remarked:

“2025 was an outstanding year, and the momentum is further accelerating into 2026… and we continue to see strong and growing preference for our leading brands and differentiated vacation experiences. We expect another strong year of financial performance with both revenue and earnings growing double digits, and we remain on track to achieve our Perfecta goals by 2027.”

After the earnings call, the company’s stock climbed over 6%, mainly due to strong 2026 guidance. 

Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL stock price

These results show not only a recovery from pandemic lows but also sustained demand for cruises. Analysts expect this trend to continue as global travel and premium leisure spending grow.

Passenger Waves: Cruise Industry Expansion and Emissions 

The global cruise industry is growing fast. Projections show over 38 million passengers by 2026, up from around 37.7 million in 2025. This growth follows strong momentum from 2024 and reflects overall travel trends.

cruise passengers outlook
Source: Cruise Lines International Association

Higher demand is encouraging cruise lines to add ships and expand routes. Royal Caribbean, for example, has ordered new Discovery Class vessels and is growing its river cruise segment with more ships planned through 2031. This shows long-term confidence in the market.

Carbon Wake: Cruise Emissions vs Other Travel

Cruising, however, has a higher environmental impact than many other types of travel. Cruise ships are among the most carbon-intensive forms of travel per passenger per distance traveled. This is because they need fuel not just to move but also to run cabins, restaurants, pools, and entertainment.

Even large, efficient cruise ships by Royal Caribbean emit around 250 grams of CO₂ per passenger-kilometer. That is higher than most long-haul flights or hotel stays. Onboard services and hotel-style energy use make cruises even more carbon-heavy.

For perspective:

  • A five-night cruise of 1,200 miles produces about 1,100 pounds (≈500 kg) of CO₂ per passenger.
  • A flight covering the same distance plus a hotel stay produces roughly 264 kg of CO₂ per person.

This means a cruise can generate about 2x the greenhouse gas emissions of an equivalent flight-and-hotel trip.

Trains and electric cars have much lower emissions per passenger. For example, traveling by national rail produces about 35 g CO₂ per kilometer, and international trains like Eurostar are even lower at 4.5 g CO₂ per kilometer.

The Carbon Footprint of Cruise Ship vs Major Travel Methods
Data source: Voronoi App

Other comparison insights:

  • Emissions per passenger-kilometer: Large cruise ships emit 0.43–0.65 kg CO₂, depending on occupancy and efficiency. Economy-class flights emit 0.15–0.20 kg, while high-speed rail is around 0.04 kg. Cruises can be 2–10x more carbon-intensive per passenger.
  • Fuel and technology impact: Using LNG instead of heavy fuel oil reduces CO₂ by 20–25%, but methane slip and upstream emissions can reduce gains. Air lubrication and optimized routing can cut fuel use by 5–10% per voyage.

Ship engines burn huge amounts of fuel. Amenities like air conditioning, theaters, pools, and restaurants add to the energy demand. Cruises remain a luxurious experience, but travelers should know that they usually have a higher carbon footprint than flights, plus hotels or land-based travel. This shows that while cruises are luxurious and convenient, they have a much higher carbon footprint than most other ways of traveling.

Cruise ships also emit sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine particles, which can harm air quality in port cities and marine ecosystems. Many passengers also fly to and from cruise ports, adding more carbon emissions that are often not included in cruise footprint estimates.

How Cruise Lines Are Addressing Environmental Impact

Cruise companies, including Royal Caribbean, are working to reduce their environmental impact. Many aim to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or earlier.

Royal Caribbean’s Destination Net Zero strategy focuses on:

  • Alternative fuels: LNG-powered ships, biofuels, and fuel cell technology.
  • New ship technologies: Advanced hulls, air lubrication systems, and shore power connections.
  • Operational efficiency: Optimized routes and engine improvements to reduce fuel use per passenger.
Royal Caribbean Cruise emission reductions pathways
Source: Royal Caribbean Cruises

Other cruise lines are also taking action to tackle their environmental footprint: 

MSC Cruises used efficiency tools and smart itinerary planning to cut 50,000 tonnes of CO₂ in 2024. They are testing hybrid propulsion and shore power at multiple ports. Carnival Corporation is expanding LNG and biofuel use while increasing shore-side electrical connections. They are also researching carbon capture for ships.

Likewise, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) is adding LNG-powered ships, battery-assisted propulsion, and energy-efficient onboard systems. NCL is also expanding shore power at ports.

Disney Cruise Line uses hybrid exhaust gas cleaning, advanced wastewater treatment, and fuel-efficient hulls while eliminating single-use plastics onboard. Meanwhile, Princess Cruises applies energy-saving tech, waste reduction, and wastewater treatment, while testing LNG as a fuel alternative.

Overall, the cruise industry faces pressure to reduce carbon intensity. Cleaner fuels, new technologies, and operational efficiency are becoming standard. Environmental responsibility is now a key part of long-term business strategy.

Forecast Horizon: Growth, Finance, and Green Goals

Royal Caribbean and the cruise industry are financially strong. High bookings, growing revenue, and positive forecasts show that demand for cruises is rising. Investments in new ships and offerings aim to meet demand across different traveler groups.

Cruise forecasts show over 38 million passengers by 2026, highlighting ongoing interest. Electric and hybrid propulsion, shore power, biofuels, and fuel-saving technologies are slowly becoming standard.

Challenges remain. Reducing cruise carbon intensity to levels similar to other travel modes will require more alternative fuels, stricter rules, and continued innovation.

Still, many cruise lines have pledged net-zero targets, often aligned with global shipping goals. Passengers are also more aware of environmental impact, driving demand for greener cruises.

Balancing Growth and Emissions

Royal Caribbean’s strong earnings and positive outlook show a resilient and growing industry. Record bookings and strategic investments indicate financial health and long-term growth.

However, carbon emissions remain a major issue. Cruises generally produce more CO₂ per passenger than many other vacations. Cruising is also considered to emit the most emissions compared to other travel methods. Thus, the industry faces pressure to reduce this impact.

Understanding both the financial and environmental sides can help travelers make better choices. For cruise companies and policymakers, balancing growth with emissions reductions is key for the future of cruising.

The post Royal Caribbean’s (RCL) Record 2025 Profits Meet Carbon Challenges of the Cruise Industry appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Clean Energy Investment Hits Record $2.3T in 2025 Says BloombergNEF: What Leads the Surge?

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Clean Energy Investment Hits Record $2.3T in 2025: EVs and Renewables Lead the Surge

Global investment in clean energy reached a new high of $2.3 trillion in 2025, according to a major industry report. This total was 8% higher than in 2024, showing that investment in low-carbon technologies continued to grow despite economic uncertainty. Researchers say this shows the global interest in cutting greenhouse gas emissions and creating cleaner energy systems.

The figures come from the BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2026 report. BloombergNEF is a leading research provider that tracks investments in clean energy technologies and infrastructure.

The clean energy transition includes technologies such as renewable power, electric vehicles (EVs), grid improvements, energy storage, and climate-related tech companies. Together, these areas attracted record funding.

Breakdown of the $2.3 Trillion Investment

The global total of $2.3 trillion in 2025 covered several key clean energy sectors:

  • Electric transport: The largest category, with $893 billion invested. This includes electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, which are expanding rapidly around the world.
  • Renewable energy: About $690 billion went into renewable power such as wind, solar, and other clean sources. This was slightly lower than the previous year due to changing regulations in China’s power markets.
  • Power grids: Investment in grid systems reached $483 billion in 2025. This spending supports the transmission and distribution of clean energy.
  • Emerging sectors: Hydrogen received $7.3 billion, and nuclear energy received $36 billion.

Bloomberg Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025

Although total investment grew, renewable energy funding itself was down nearly 9.5% compared with 2024. This decline was mainly due to new regulatory rules in China, the world’s largest clean energy market.

Overall, clean energy spending has outpaced fossil fuel investment for a second year in a row. Fossil fuel supply investment fell by $9 billion in 2025, mainly due to reduced spending on oil and gas production and fossil power plants.

Global-energy-transition-investment-by-sector-BNEF

Regional Power Plays: Who’s Investing Where

Investment levels differ greatly by region. This shows the impact of policy, industry structure, and economic growth.

In the Asia Pacific, investment accounted for nearly 47% of the global total in 2025. China stayed the top market, investing around $800 billion in clean tech. This was despite some drops in its renewable sector.

India saw investment grow by 15%, reaching around $68 billion in 2025. The increase was driven by renewables, grid upgrades, and electrification projects.

The European Union grew its investment by 18% to about $455 billion, making it a major contributor to the global increase.

In the United States, investment increased by 3.5% to about $378 billion. This rise happened even though some federal policies slowed support for certain clean energy programs.

Global energy transition investment, by economy or region
Source: BloombergNEF

These patterns show that all regions invest in clean energy. However, the pace and focus vary based on local strategies and market conditions.

Trends Driving Clean Energy Investment

  • Electrified Transport Leads

Investment in electric transport, like EVs and charging stations, is now a key player in clean energy spending. In 2025, this area alone attracted $893 billion, making it the top category of global investment.

Electric vehicles are growing fast as battery costs fall and more models become available. Many countries and companies have set targets to phase out fossil fuel vehicles, which boosts demand for EV infrastructure.

EV sales share by region 2030 IEA

  • Renewable Power and Grids

Even though renewable investment dipped slightly, it still remained a large portion of the total. The $690 billion invested in renewables in 2025 supports new solar, wind, and other clean power plants.

Investment in power grids also grew, reaching $483 billion. Upgrading grids is essential to connect more clean energy to the places that need it. These upgrades include transmission lines, smart grid technologies, and energy storage systems.

  • Clean Tech Supply Chains and Finance

Investment in factories and supply chains for clean tech also expanded. In 2025, spending on clean energy supply chains reached $127 billion, a 6% increase from 2024. These funds went to battery factories, solar equipment production, and mining for battery metals.

Equity funding in climate-tech companies also rebounded strongly, rising to $77.3 billion — a 53% increase from the previous year. This was the first year of growth in equity funding after several years of decline.

In addition, energy transition debt issuance, loans, and bonds to finance clean energy projects reached $1.2 trillion, up 17% from 2024. This reflects strong interest from both public and private financiers.

Historical Context and Recent Growth

Clean energy investment has been growing steadily over the past decade.

In 2024, global energy transition investment reached about $2.1 trillion, surpassing the $2 trillion mark for the first time. This total was driven by electrified transport, renewable power, and grid investment.

In 2023, investment in clean energy surged to around $1.77 trillion, reflecting rising spending despite geopolitical challenges and market pressures. Electrified transport and renewables both hit new highs that year.

The jump to $2.3 trillion in 2025 continues this long-term growth trend, even though the rate of growth has slowed compared with earlier years. The annual increase dropped from more than 20% several years ago to 8% in 2025 as markets matured and conditions shifted.

Looking Ahead: The Road to $2.9 Trillion

Analysts expect clean energy investment to keep rising in the near term, though uncertainties remain.

BloombergNEF’s base-case scenario shows that global energy transition investment might hit about $2.9 trillion annually over the next five years. This will be above 2025 levels. It shows ongoing interest from both governments and companies.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) offers a broader forecast for total energy investment in 2025. Overall energy investment could reach around $3.3 trillion. This includes spending on both clean and fossil fuels. Clean technologies are expected to get over $2.2 trillion of that total. This would mean clean energy investment continues to outpace fossil fuel spending.

global clean energy investment 2025 by IEA
Source: IEA

Experts see these future figures as good signs. However, they say annual investment must grow a lot to reach long-term climate goals, like those in the Paris Agreement. To meet net-zero by 2050, analysts say the world may need to invest over $5 trillion each year by the end of this decade.

What The Record Spend Means for the Energy Transition

The $2.3 trillion clean energy investment in 2025 shows that countries, companies, and investors around the world continue to fund the energy transition. These funds support low-carbon technologies that reduce emissions and improve energy security.

Investment in electric transport helps shift away from fossil fuel vehicles. Renewable energy funding builds new wind and solar capacity. Grid and storage investment enables that power to reach homes, businesses, and industries.

Regional investment patterns show strong gains in the Asia Pacific, Europe, India, and the United States. However, China saw a slight drop in renewable energy funding.

The clean energy transition remains robust, though overall growth rates have slowed compared with earlier years. The trend also shows that climate goals are now a key part of economic and infrastructure strategies. Forecasts indicate a continued expansion of clean energy investment soon. However, meeting long‑term climate targets will need even greater flows of capital across all regions.

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Microsoft Q2 FY26 Earnings: $81B Revenue, AI Momentum, and a 150% Jump in Water Use by 2030

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Microsoft Q2 FY26: $81B Revenue, AI Momentum, and a 150% Jump in Water Use by 2030

Microsoft’s Q2 FY26 earnings show a company growing fast while facing new sustainability pressures. Revenue surged on strong AI and cloud demand, carbon removal commitments doubled, and data centers expanded. At the same time, rising water use highlights the environmental costs of AI. Together, the results show how Microsoft is trying to balance financial growth, climate action, and resource management as its AI-driven business scales.

Big Numbers, Bigger Momentum: Microsoft’s Q2 FY26 Performance

Microsoft reported strong results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, ending December 31, 2025. The company’s total revenue was $81.3 billion, up 17% from the $69.6 billion reported in the same period last year.

Net income, the profit after expenses, was $38.5 billion. This figure rose 60% from about $24.1 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2025. Microsoft also reported a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16. This was up 60% from $3.23 per share in the prior year. Operating income also increased by 21% year over year to was $38.3 billion. 

The tech giant also reported large growth in its cloud and AI-related businesses. Revenue from Microsoft Cloud reached $51.5 billion in the quarter. This was an increase of 26% compared with the prior year.

Breaking this down:

  • Intelligent Cloud revenue was $32.9 billion, up 29%.
  • Productivity and Business Processes revenue was $34.1 billion, up 16%.
  • More Personal Computing revenue was $14.3 billion, down 3%.
microsoft fy26 income statement
Source: App Economy Insights

The company also reported its remaining performance obligations, future contracted revenue yet to be recognized, at $625 billion. This was up 110% compared with the same time last year.

Microsoft continued to return cash to shareholders. In the quarter, it returned about $12.7 billion through dividends and share buybacks — an increase of about 32% year over year.

These results show that Microsoft continued to grow across major business segments in Q2 FY 2026. Cloud services and AI-related products remained key drivers of revenue growth. At the same time, personal computing revenue, which includes Windows licensing, Surface devices, and search advertising, experienced a small decline.

Despite these robust results, Microsoft’s stock fell about 11% after the earnings. It dropped by $52.95 to close around $428.68 in late trading after hitting a low of $421.11. This is due to investors’ concerns about slow cloud growth and high spending on AI.

Microsoft MSFT stock price

Alongside its strong financial performance, Microsoft is also taking major strides in its environmental commitments.

Carbon Removal Leadership: Doubling Impact in 2025

Sustainability remains central to Microsoft’s strategy. In 2025, the company more than doubled its carbon removal agreements to 45 million metric tons of CO₂, up from 22 million tons in 2024.

microsoft carbon removal contracts 2023-2025

These purchases include a mix of nature-based solutions. They cover forestry and soil carbon projects, plus direct air capture technologies. The agreements span North America, Europe, and Africa, targeting high-quality, verified removal credits with long-term permanence.

Microsoft’s move reflects a broader trend among tech giants committing to net-zero and carbon-negative strategies. Other big buyers are Amazon, Google, and Stripe. They’re investing in carbon removal to offset emissions that can’t be cut yet.

By securing long-term offtake agreements, Microsoft ensures these projects receive funding to scale operations and deliver measurable climate impact. Analysts predict that global corporate carbon removal purchases might exceed 150 million metric tons each year by 2030. This shows a fast-growing market that mixes corporate sustainability goals with investment chances.

AI’s Hidden Cost: Data Centers and Water Demand

Microsoft also released projections on AI-driven data center water consumption. With AI workloads surging, water use in Microsoft’s global data centers is expected to rise 150% by 2030 compared with current levels. That’s equal to using about 18 billion liters over the said period. 

The increase is mainly due to liquid cooling systems used to maintain GPU and CPU performance in AI servers. Water is essential to prevent overheating and maintain efficiency. Microsoft’s water needs are spiking hardest in dry areas.

  • In Phoenix (hit by 20 years of drought), the company cut its 2030 estimate from 3.3 billion liters to 2 billion by running hotter data centers.
  • Near Jakarta, Indonesia (a sinking city with drained underground water), the forecast dropped from 1.9 billion to 664 million liters.
  • In Pune, India (where shortages caused protests and a “No Water, No Vote” push), it fell from 1.9 billion to just 237 million liters—Microsoft wouldn’t say why.

As AI adoption grows, data centers will consume more energy and water, especially in regions with concentrated cloud infrastructure.

global data center water use projection Bloomberg

In an interview, Priscilla Johnson, Microsoft’s former director of water strategy until 2020, stated:

“Water took a back seat. Energy was more the focus because it was more expensive. Water was too cheap to be prioritized.”

Microsoft is now exploring solutions such as:

  • Advanced cooling technologies to reduce water intensity per compute unit
  • Use of recycled water in data centers where feasible
  • AI-driven energy and resource optimization to manage electricity and water demand

The company emphasizes that AI deployment must be balanced with sustainability practices, ensuring growth does not lead to unsustainable water consumption or carbon emissions.

Where Growth Meets Responsibility

Microsoft’s Q2 results show that growth and sustainability are connected. Investments in AI, cloud, and enterprise services boost revenue while increasing resource demand. The company’s carbon removal goals and energy-efficient data center plans help reduce environmental impacts.

Key metrics illustrate this balance:

  • Revenue growth of 9% year-over-year
  • Cloud revenue of $30.5 billion, up 12%
  • Carbon removal agreements totaling 45 million metric tons
  • Projected AI data center water increase of 150% by 2030

These initiatives demonstrate that Microsoft is trying to align profitability with long-term climate goals. Investing in clean technology, energy efficiency, and carbon removal shows that big companies can grow responsibly. This approach also helps reduce environmental impacts.

What Comes Next for AI, Climate, and Capital

Microsoft expects AI adoption to boost demand for:

  • Data center capacity
  • Cloud computing
  • Specialized hardware like GPUs

Analysts predict the global AI data center market could double by 2030, creating both financial and sustainability challenges.

The carbon removal market is also expected to expand. With 45 million tons already contracted, Microsoft’s continued leadership signals corporate influence in scaling carbon removal projects.

Forecasts show that voluntary carbon removal deals might exceed $15 billion each year by 2030. This growth is mainly due to tech companies, industrial firms, and financial institutions.

Water management in data centers is another critical area. Companies need to invest in better cooling and recycled water solutions to help meet rising demand while protecting local water resources. Microsoft’s transparency around water use provides a model for responsible AI deployment globally.

Overall, Microsoft’s earnings report not only reflects strong financial performance but also highlights the company’s sustainability leadership. Growth, carbon removal, and AI infrastructure are linked. They provide insights for companies like Microsoft trying to balance profit with environmental responsibility.

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The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?

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The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?

The global carbon credit market reached a clear turning point in 2025. Volumes declined. Prices rose. Buyer behavior shifted. Policy signals strengthened. At the same time, long-term commitments surged through record-breaking offtake deals.

These changes show a market moving away from scale at any cost. Instead, quality, integrity, and compliance eligibility now shape value. This article reviews the major trends that defined the carbon credit market in 2025 using various industry reports and explains what they mean for 2026 and beyond.

Why 2025 Marked a Turning Point for the Carbon Credit Market

For much of the past decade, growth in the voluntary carbon market was driven by volume. More credits were issued. More were retired. Prices stayed low. Quality concerns often came second.

That model no longer holds.

In 2025, total credit retirements fell to about 168 million tonnes, down 4.5% year on year, according to Sylvera report. New issuances also declined, reaching roughly 270 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2020. On the surface, this looks like a contracting market.

carbon credits retired 2025

carbon credits issued by year 2025
Data source: Sylvera

Yet market value moved in the opposite direction. Total spending on carbon credits rose to around $1.04 billion, up from about $980 million in 2024. The average price paid increased to roughly $6.10 per credit.

carbon credit price 2025 MSCI
Source: MSCI Carbon Markets

This shift matters. It shows that market growth is no longer tied to volume alone. Instead, it is driven by higher prices for credits seen as credible, durable, and compliant with future rules.

The reports point to two forces driving this change. First, buyers are paying more for higher-quality credits. Second, compliance-driven demand is starting to reshape the market. Together, these forces signal a transition toward a more structured and selective market.

Supply, Demand, Issuances, and Retirements: What Really Changed in 2025

The balance between supply and demand changed in important ways during 2025.

On the supply side, issuances declined across several major project types. Renewable energy credits saw the sharpest drop. These projects have long faced questions around additionality. Many buyers now see them as low impact. As a result, fewer new renewable credits entered the market.

carbon credit issued by project MSCI 2025
Source: MSCI Carbon Markets

Nature-based credits still dominate total volumes. Forestry and land-use projects remain the largest source of issued and retired credits. However, within this category, the mix is changing.

Buyers are moving away from older REDD+ projects and toward improved forest management, afforestation, reforestation, and agriculture-based projects. Allied Offsets data show the following mix:

nature based credits Allied Offsets
Source: Allied Offsets

On the demand side, retirements fell slightly, but this does not signal weakening interest. Corporate demand remained stable in terms of buyer count. What changed was how companies bought credits and what they were willing to pay.

Importantly, compliance use now accounts for about 23% of all retirements. Programs in California, Quebec, South Africa, and Chile contributed to this growth. This share is expected to rise as new compliance systems scale up.

Another key signal comes from inventory data. Credits rated BBB or higher have been in deficit since 2023. In 2025, this deficit continued for a third straight year. At the same time, lower-rated and unrated credits remained heavily oversupplied. Unrated credits alone added an estimated 88 million tonnes to inventory in 2025.

This split highlights a structural imbalance. The market does not lack the credits overall. It lacks the credits that buyers trust.

Nature, Tech, and Removals: The Credit Mix Evolves

The mix of credit types continued to rotate in 2025, reflecting buyer concerns about integrity and future eligibility.

  • Nature-based credits

Nature-based credits still make up the majority of market activity. However, not all nature credits are treated equally.

Legacy REDD+ projects lost market share. High-profile integrity concerns reduced buyer confidence. Prices weakened for lower-rated REDD+ credits. In contrast, well-rated afforestation and reforestation (ARR) projects gained ground. Buyers showed a clear preference for projects with stronger monitoring, permanence, and land tenure controls.

Agriculture-based credits also expanded. These projects often offer measurable co-benefits for soil health and livelihoods. Buyers increasingly value these attributes.

  • Technology-based avoidance credits

Credits from renewable energy projects continued to decline. Waste management, landfill gas, and industrial efficiency projects filled some of this gap. These projects often face lower additionality risks and clearer baselines.

  • Carbon removal credits

Carbon removal credits remain a small share of current retirements. In 2025, durable removals accounted for well under 1 million tonnes of issuances and retirements.

Yet removals are central to the market’s future. This is most visible in the forward market. Most large offtake deals focus on durable carbon removal, such as direct air capture, biochar, BECCS, and enhanced mineralization.

The CDR-focused report highlights why. Net-zero targets increasingly require removals to address residual emissions. Avoidance credits alone are not enough. This structural demand explains why removals command much higher prices and long-term commitments.

Prices, Quality Premiums, and What Buyers Are Paying For

Headline prices only tell part of the story.

In 2025, the average spot price was around $6.10 per credit. But actual prices varied widely by project type, rating, and co-benefits.

Afforestation and reforestation credits traded anywhere from $2 to over $50. Half of the ARR credits fell between $5 and $25. REDD+ credits showed similar dispersion but at lower levels. Quality became the main driver of these differences. For the first time, ratings were clearly embedded in pricing.

ARR projects rated BBB or higher averaged about $26 per credit. Lower-rated ARR projects averaged closer to $14. Unrated projects traded even lower. A similar pattern appeared in REDD+ credits.

carbon credit price by Sylvera rating
Source: Sylvera

Co-benefits added another layer. Projects with strong biodiversity or community outcomes earned clear price premiums. Buyers were willing to pay more for credits that delivered visible social and environmental value beyond carbon.

In the forward market, prices looked very different. Offtake agreements signed in 2025 implied average prices of around $160 per credit. These prices reflect the high costs and limited supply of durable removals, not spot market conditions.

The result is a two-tier market. One tier is a fragmented spot market with wide price ranges. The other is a concentrated forward market built around high-integrity removals.

Investments and Movers: Who’s Driving the Market

Private investment in carbon removal companies between 2021 and 2025 reached approximately $3.6 billion, with direct air capture (DAC) attracting the largest share of capital over that period.

Cumulative Investment in Durable CDR by CDR.fyi
Source: CDR.fyi

However, investment activity contracted in 2024 and continued into 2025, even as offtake deals expanded. This highlights a gap between commercial commitments and early‑stage funding scaling.

Major Corporate Buyers and Retirees

Corporate engagement shapes much of the 2025 retirement landscape. Several household names emerged as significant purchasers and retirees:

  • Microsoft remained the single largest buyer of carbon removal credits, accounting for over 90% of removal volume in the first half of 2025.
  • Energy and utility firms accounted for a sizable portion of total retirements, as indicated in broad market data on retiree sectors.
  • While comprehensive ranked data for all major buyers in 2025 is not fully disclosed publicly, MSCI analysis of prior data indicates that energy companies, transport firms, and services sectors have historically been among the top retirees when disclosure is available.

credit retirees company MSCI

Regional retirements also suggest significant corporate participation from Asia, Europe, and North America. This reflects global corporate climate commitments. 

Offtake Spotlight: Forward Deals Speak Louder Than Volumes

Offtake agreements were one of the clearest signals of future market direction in 2025.

The total value of offtake deals announced during the year reached about $12.25 billion, up from roughly $4 billion in 2024. This is more than 12 times the value of credits retired in the spot market.

Carbon credit offtake infographic
Data source: Sylvera

Yet the volumes involved remain modest. These deals are expected to deliver around 10 million credits per year through 2035. That is less than 10% of current annual retirements.

This gap matters. It shows that buyers are willing to commit large sums to secure limited volumes of high-quality supply. A small group of buyers dominates this space. Microsoft alone accounted for the vast majority of durable removal offtake volume in 2025.

These agreements serve two purposes. They secure future supply in a tight market. They also send strong price signals. If even a fraction of spot market demand shifts toward similar quality thresholds, total market value could grow significantly without higher volumes.

Integrity Meets Policy: Compliance and Ratings Reshape Value

Integrity concerns shaped much of the market’s evolution in 2025.

Buyers are no longer satisfied with claims alone. Ratings, improved methodologies, and third-party assessments now influence decisions. This shift is reinforced by policy.

Compliance and voluntary markets are converging. Credits that can meet compliance rules often command higher prices. This is especially true for credits eligible under CORSIA or aligned with ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles.

In 2025, nearly half of all credits issued came from methodologies potentially eligible for CORSIA. This share continues to rise. At the same time, Article 6 moved from theory to practice. Twenty new bilateral deals were signed in 2025, bringing the total to over 100 agreements.

article 6 agreements AlliedOffsets
Source: AlliedOffsets

Moreover, corresponding adjustments emerged as a central issue. Credits with a corresponding adjustment are now clearly differentiated from those without. This distinction affects pricing, eligibility, and long-term demand. Some analysts expect corresponding adjustments to become a tradable element of the market.

Policy signals also strengthened corporate demand. Draft updates to the SBTi Net-Zero Standard clarified how credits can be used alongside emissions reductions. This reduced uncertainty for buyers planning long-term strategies.

The Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

The near-term outlook points to a tighter and more complex market.

In 2026, supply constraints for high-quality credits are likely to persist. New issuances are not rising fast enough to meet demand for BBB+ credits. Prices for trusted nature-based projects are likely to remain firm or increase.

Compliance demand will continue to grow. Modeling suggests compliance use could exceed voluntary demand as early as 2027, driven by CORSIA Phase 1 and expanding domestic systems. By the mid-2030s, domestic compliance markets could become the largest source of demand.

Carbon removal credits will remain scarce in the short term. Actual retirements will lag commitments. However, investment and offtakes signal strong long-term growth. As methodologies mature and costs fall, removals will play a larger role in both voluntary and compliance settings.

The carbon credit market in 2025 did not collapse. It restructured.

For the market as a whole, the direction is clear. Volume alone no longer defines maturity. Quality, integrity, and policy alignment do. Buyers became more selective and prices began to reflect integrity. Policy moved closer to implementation. Offtake deals revealed long-term expectations.

The carbon credit market of 2026 and beyond will likely be smaller in volume than past projections, but higher in value, more regulated, and more closely tied to real climate outcomes.

The post The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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