Image generated with Claude. Why have we juxtaposed a bicycle with balcony solar? Read on.
First it was Plug-In Solar. Then it was Balcony Solar. Now it’s Guerrilla Solar, at least according to Inside Climate News, which yesterday proclaimed that The ‘Guerrilla Solar’ Era Has Arrived.
“It,” of course, is Modular solar panels. They’re the hot new photovoltaic solution: cheap enough to buy at Home Depot, easy to hang or prop to catch maximum rays, and small enough to fit on a balcony (if you’ve got one) and plug into your “home grid.” But, alas, too meager a generator of electricity to be more than a bit player in decarbonizing most U.S. homes.
How do I know? I’ve done the math.
A standard, lower-end 220-watt balcony solar array will produce 337 kilowatt-hours a year, or 28 kWh a month averaged over the course of a year. That’s for a 220W unit measuring 3.5 feet by 3.5 feet. (220W x 1/1000 x 17.5% x 8760 hours per year = 337 kWh. Calculation assumes a 17.5% full-year capacity factor, which is arguably generous for New York, where I live. )
Our balcony solar mashup. Top: an install in Germany. Bottom: Home Depot advert.
A typical U.S. home consumes 10,500 kWh a year, or 28 to 29 kWh per day, says Solartech, drawing on U.S. Energy Information Administration data. That puts a home’s daily power needs on par with a balcony solar unit’s monthly output. In effect, once each month the balcony array gifts a homeowner or renter a bit more than day’s full complement of electricity. And earth’s atmosphere gets the same respite: a 3 percent reduction in carbon emissions caused by the home’s electricity usage.
(The 3 percent figure could also be calculated directly by dividing 337 kWh per year of solar production by 10,500 kWh per year to run the home. For bigger or smaller arrays, just prorate your assumed wattage by my 220W; for 440W, say, double my figures.)
Balcony Solar metrics
Why write about balcony solar if it’s so inconsequential? CTC’s mission includes puncturing would-be climate balloons before they ascend too far. In the same vein, we practice quantification to make clear what does and doesn’t move the climate needle. (More on that further below.)
The best way to depict balcony solar’s climate value is to express it in terms of tangible metrics. We’ve selected two. Both assume the basic, lower-end PV array I assumed at the top: a 3.5 foot-square array whose peak output is 220 watts.
1. It would take 50 million 220W balcony solar units (bsu’s) to restore the climate benefit we destroyed in 2020-2021 when we shut the high-performing Indian Point nuclear power plant 32 miles from Midtown Manhattan.
2. A single person cutting back their driving by a mile a day would provide the same climate benefit over the course of a year as a single 220W bsu.
(Calculations in sidebar. Now you know why we led with images of an urban dweller as cyclist and balcony solar user.)
Yes, it’s dense — as befits a sidebar. The numbers tell a story. Follow the color co-ordination.
Ponder that: It would take fifty million smallish bsu’s to level up to the fossil fuel carbon emissions that Indian Point was keeping at bay by supplying the New York City area year in and year out with abundant carbon-free power. Deploying that many balcony solar units would entail 10 bsu’s for each of the 5 million households in the MTA’s service territory. (The Metropolitan Transportation Authority provides subway, bus and commuter rail transit in the five boroughs and seven suburban counties.) Or, if those same households upgraded to 1100-watt bsu’s, collectively they would still make up only half of the lost Indian Point power.
The second comparison, involving driving, is perhaps trickier to grasp but more interesting, since it relates to people’s behavior. Living differently isn’t part of public discourse, at least not in the USA, and especially when what’s being served up is using less. But “reducing,” as we might call it (remember “Reduce, Reuse, Recycle”? or, “Insulate, then Insolate”?) is just as potent for cutting emissions as switching to renewables — even more so when the reducing means driving less, considering the multitude of benefits that accrue from diminishing cars’ imprints on our communities. Still, staying on topic: driving just one fewer mile per day brings about the same shrinkage in carbon emissions as deploying one 220W solar array.
What Balcony Solar boosters are really saying
To be fair, our friends at Inside Climate News and, yes, The New York Times appear to be trying to modulate their balcony solar enthusiasm.
ICN‘s Dan Gearino, whom we cited up front, said he looked to Germany, the birthplace of balcony solar, to see if the units made sense for U.S. households. His takeaway: “It may make more sense financially to spend the cost of plug-in solar on insulation, air sealing or other basic measures to reduce energy use.” Hooray: insulate before you insolate.
Gearino helpfully interviewed renewables guru (and U.S. emigré) Craig Morris, who currently heads Germany’s plug-in solar trade association, Bundesverband Steckersolar. To Morris, balcony solar’s main advantages are that it provides power without taking up land, and that it affords people a way to “become participants in the transition to clean energy.” Behold, guerrilla solar. That, in turn, bolsters “the political consensus that supports the transition.” But Morris also made clear that widespread adoption of plug-in solar would only meet “about 2 percent of Germany’s electricity demand.”
Morris’s “about 2 percent” feels right for Germany. But not for the U.S., where widespread adoption of virtually any individual carbon alternative seems forever out of reach, and where the energy pie is so much larger — think giant fridges, freezers for beer, steroidal homes bursting with piles of powered toys, not to mention industrial and institutional electricity use that Morris correctly excluded from his figure.
Don’t forget to micro-dose. NYT headline + image for David Wallace-Wells’ guest essay (see text). Image by Rui Pu.
Both Gearino and Morris seem more measured than climate journalist Robinson Meyer, founding editor of Heatmap and frequent contributor to The Times, where he wrote about balcony solar in mid-June.
“New zero-carbon power kits will allow Americans to make their own energy choices,” declares the callout to the print version of Meyer’s NYT guest essay, The Tiny Solar Panel That Could Change America. (The even more expansive print headline invites us to “Forget Roofs. Backyard Solar Is the Next Frontier.”)
Wallace-Wells is of two minds. He calls balcony solar “a small way that apartment- and condo-dwelling Americans can take ownership of their energy choices and cut down their pollution on the margins.” No quarrel there, thanks to his qualifiers “small” and “on the margins.” Earlier, though, he opines that balcony solar units “have the potential to change how Americans understand and consume energy,” But read further and you’ll again see Wallace-Wells cautioning that “Balcony solar will play one small role in [the] drama” of transiting to the new world of clean, abundant energy.
Any such caveats are welcome these days, amid widespread solar hoopla. Still, it doesn’t seem to be in Wallace-Wells’ toolkit — or that of Inside Climate News and other mainstream climate journalists — to tutor their audiences as to the true limits of balcony solar and other panaceas. Just like it wasn’t in their field of vision a decade ago to lay out the true stakes of shutting Indian Point as Riverkeeper was singing its siren song.
What’s Next for NY Balcony Solar
Meantime, as Canary Media reported recently (and helpfully), New Yorkers concerned with climate and affordability are waiting for NY Gov. Kathy Hochul to sign the recently passed SUNNY (Solar Up Now New York) Act legalizing balcony and other plug-in solar. It would be head-spinning (and politically suicidal) if she didn’t, given near-universal support ranging from Con Edison to DSA Assembly Member Emily Gallagher, who told Canary Media, “This is the most popular bill I’ve [ever] worked on.”
My guess is that Hochul is waiting for the right moment, and perhaps the right “package,” that can advance and not undercut her push to launch five large new nuclear power plants around the state — one to be built by the public New York Power Authority, the others to be constructed and operated privately. A little bit of math, a la what we offered here a la Indian Point, might help her out.
The governor also must manage the veritable hot potato of her deferred implementation of the landmark 2019 Community Leadership and Climate Protection Act. She might do well to consider jettisoning the act’s unwieldy cap-and-invest centerpiece in favor of a straight-up carbon tax (with the revenues distributed pro rata to the state’s households) in its place. That, far more than balcony (or guerrilla) solar, could blow open the door to the “innovations and technologies we cannot yet imagine” that Wallace-Wells fantasized about in his Times essay.
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
Climate change is real, and the evidence is everywhere, from rising sea levels to extreme weather events. While changes in Earth’s climate have occurred naturally over millennia, human activities are now the dominant force behind the current warming trend. Understanding what climate change is, what causes it, and what we can do to stop it is essential for safeguarding our planet and future generations.
Key takeaways
- Human activities, especially burning fossil fuels, are now the dominant driver of climate change, not natural cycles like solar activity.
- Livestock accounts for an estimated 51% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions, while deforestation is the second-largest contributor.
- 2023-2025 was the first three-year period on record to average more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
- Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions hit a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, with no sign yet of a peak.
- Nearly 30% of plant and animal species could be at risk of extinction if global temperatures keep rising.
- Solutions like renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon offsets, and reduced deforestation can meaningfully slow climate change today.
Climate Change in 2026: The Latest Data
The data keeps confirming the same trend: warming is accelerating, not leveling off. Here’s where things stand as of 2026, based on the most recent findings from NOAA, Copernicus, NASA, and the Global Carbon Project.
2026 climate data snapshot
- Global temperatures: 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, behind 2024 and 2023. The past 11 years (2015–2025) are the 11 warmest ever measured, and 2023–2025 marked the first three-year period to average above 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels.
- CO2 levels: Atmospheric CO2 hit a record monthly high of 430.5 ppm at Mauna Loa in May 2025. Global fossil fuel emissions reached a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, and researchers now say the remaining carbon budget to keep warming under 1.5°C will likely be exhausted before 2030 at current emission rates.
- Extreme weather costs: The U.S. recorded 23 separate billion-dollar weather disasters in 2025, the third-highest annual total on record, costing an estimated $115 billion. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires alone caused $61.2 billion in damage, making them the costliest wildfire event in U.S. history.
- Sea level rise: Global mean sea level rose just 0.08 cm in 2025, slowed temporarily by La Niña rainfall patterns, but the long-term rate of sea level rise has more than doubled since 1993, and oceans are up roughly 10 cm (about 4 inches) since satellite records began.
None of this changes the underlying picture: the causes, effects, and solutions below remain the same, they’re just playing out faster and at greater cost each year.
What Is Climate Change?
You’ve likely heard the terms “climate change” and “global warming” used interchangeably. However, they have distinct meanings. Global warming refers specifically to the increase in the planet’s average surface temperature, largely due to greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change, on the other hand, encompasses a broader range of long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and other aspects of the Earth’s climate system.
Climate change has always been part of Earth’s history, driven by natural interactions between five key systems:
- Atmosphere (air)
- Biosphere (living things)
- Cryosphere (ice and permafrost)
- Hydrosphere (water bodies)
- Lithosphere (Earth’s crust and upper mantle)
Today, the rapid pace and scale of climate change are primarily driven by human activities.
Climate Change (infographic)
What Are the Causes of Climate Change?
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. While some GHGs occur naturally, human activities have sharply increased their concentrations. Major contributors include:
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) – Released by burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and land-use changes.
- Methane (CH4) – Emitted from livestock, landfills, and oil and gas production.
- Nitrous oxide (N2O) – Produced by agricultural activities and fossil fuel combustion.
- Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – Man-made chemicals used in refrigeration and aerosols.
CO2 is the most significant and long-lasting of these gases, making it the primary driver of global warming.
While some of these greenhouse gases, such as water vapor, are naturally occurring, others, such as CFCs, are synthetic. CO2 is released into the atmosphere from both natural and human-made causes and is one of the leading contributors to climate change. CO2 has been increasing at an alarming rate and has the potential to stay in the earth’s atmosphere for thousands of years unless it gets absorbed by the ocean, land, trees, and other sources. As CO2 production has steadily risen, though, the earth’s natural resources to absorb it have also been diminished. This is already occurring in many ways as the earth’s resources are disappearing from things like deforestation. Some studies even predict that plants and soil will be able to absorb less CO2 as the earth continues to warm, possibly accelerating climate change even further.
Solar Activity
Solar activity, as mentioned above, does play a role in the earth’s climate. While the sun does go through natural cycles, increasing and decreasing the amount of energy that it emits to the earth, it is unlikely that solar activity is a major contributor to global warming or climate change. Since scientists began to measure the sun’s energy hitting our atmosphere, there has not been a measurable upward trend.
Agriculture
There are many significant ways in which agriculture impacts climate change. From deforestation in places like the Amazon to the transportation and livestock that it takes to support agricultural efforts around the world, agriculture is responsible for a significant portion of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. However, agriculture is also an area that is making tremendous strides to become more sustainable. As productivity increases, less carbon is being emitted to produce more food. Agriculture also has the potential to act as a carbon sink, and could eventually absorb nearly the same amount of CO2 it emits.
Deforestation
Deforestation and climate change often go hand in hand. Not only does climate change increase deforestation by way of wildfires and other extreme weather, but deforestation is also a major contributor to global warming. According to the Earth Day Network, deforestation is the second leading contributor to global greenhouse gasses. Many people and organizations fighting against climate change point to reducing deforestation as one of, if not the most, important issues that must be addressed to slow or prevent climate change.
Human Activity
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the most significant contributor to climate change in the United States is the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. Of these factors, transportation in the form of cars, trucks, ships, trains, and planes emits the largest percentage of CO2, speeding up global warming and remaining a significant cause of climate change.
Livestock
While interconnected to many of the agricultural and deforestation issues we have already touched on, livestock in the form of cattle, sheep, pigs, and poultry play a significant role in climate change. According to one study, “Livestock and Climate Change,” livestock around the world is responsible for 51% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions.
What Are the Immediate Effects of Climate Change?
From melting glaciers to more extreme weather patterns, people everywhere are beginning to take notice of the real impacts of climate change. While some nations around the world are taking action with initiatives such as the Paris Climate Agreement, others are continuing business as usual, pumping millions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere year after year. As the 2026 data above shows, climate change continues to cause extreme weather as well as safety and economic challenges on a global scale, and the costs are climbing every year.
Extreme Weather
Changes to weather are perhaps the most noticeable effect of climate change for the average person, largely because of the financial impact severe weather events can have. In 2025 alone, the U.S. recorded 23 separate billion-dollar weather disasters totaling $115 billion in damages, continuing a run of the three highest years on record (2023, 2024, and 2025). Extreme weather influenced by climate change includes:
- Stronger storms & hurricanes
- Heatwaves
- Wildfires
- More flooding
- Heavier droughts
Safety & Economic Challenges
In 2014 the U.S. Department of Defense released a report that stated climate change posed a severe and immediate threat to national security. According to former Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, rising global temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict.
Climate change is also likely to cause continued economic challenges in many parts of the world. Some estimates have the U.S. already spending around $240 billion annually due to human-caused climate change, and the 2025 U.S. billion-dollar disaster total of $115 billion shows those costs remain elevated year after year. Putting an exact number on the real costs of climate change is difficult, though, once you consider the staggering costs of losing natural resources like clean air and water.
What Is the Long-Term Impact of Climate Change?
The long-term impact of climate change could be absolutely devastating to the planet and everyone and everything living on it. If the world continues on its current trajectory, and 2025’s record fossil fuel emissions suggest it is, then we will likely continue to see increasing effects on everyday life.
Health
There are many ways in which climate change could impact people’s health. Depending on age, location, and economic status, climate change is already affecting the health of many and has the potential to impact millions more. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, climate change-related health risks may include:
- Heat-related illness
- Injuries and fatalities from severe weather
- Asthma & cardiovascular disease from air pollution
- Respiratory problems from increased allergens
- Diseases from poor water quality
- Water & food supply insecurities
Negative Impact on Ecosystems
Ecosystems are interconnected webs of living organisms that help support all kinds of plant and biological life. Climate change is already changing seasonal weather patterns and disrupting food distribution for plants and animals throughout the world, potentially causing mass extinction events. Some studies estimate that nearly 30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction if global temperatures continue to rise.
Water & Food Resources
Climate change could have a significant impact on food and water supplies. Severe weather and increased temperatures will continue to limit crop productivity and increase the demand for water. With food demand expected to increase by nearly 70% by 2050, the problem will likely only get worse.
Sea Levels Rising
Rising sea levels could have far-reaching effects on coastal cities and habitats. Increasing ocean temperatures and melting ice sheets have steadily contributed to the rise of sea levels on a global scale. Global sea level has risen roughly 10 cm (about 4 inches) since satellite records began in 1993, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates sea levels will rise by at least 8 inches by 2100, potentially causing increased flooding and a decrease in ocean and wetland habitats.
Shrinking Ice Sheets
While contributing to rising sea levels, shrinking ice sheets present their own set of unique problems, including increased global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change has driven summer melt of the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica to increase by nearly 30% since 1979.
Ocean Acidification
The ocean is one of the main ways in which CO2 gets absorbed. While at first glance that may sound like a net positive, the increasingly human-caused CO2 is pushing the world’s oceans to their limits and causing increased acidity. As pH levels in the ocean decrease, shellfish have difficulty reproducing, and much of the ocean’s food cycle becomes disrupted.
What Are the Solutions for Climate Change?
While the effects of climate change can seem bleak, there is still hope. By taking immediate action to curb climate change, we may never see the worst consequences. Likewise, as the world adopts cleaner, more sustainable energy solutions, there may be millions of new jobs created and billions of dollars of economic benefits. Below are some practical ways you can battle climate change, including:
- Switching to renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro)
- Purchasing Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) for your home
- Using energy-efficient appliances and insulating buildings
- Offsetting your carbon emissions through verified programs
- Adopting plant-based diets and reducing meat consumption
- Minimizing food waste and single-use plastics
- Protecting and restoring forests and wetlands
- Supporting clean transportation options (EVs, public transit, biking)
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Why Climate Change Matters to Everyone
Climate change isn’t just an environmental problem. It’s an everything problem. It touches every aspect of our lives:
- Jobs and the economy: Clean energy sectors are rapidly expanding and could create millions of new jobs worldwide.
- National security: Climate change exacerbates global instability, resource conflicts, and forced migration.
- Public health: Clean air, safe drinking water, and stable food systems are all at risk.
- Justice and equity: Low-income communities and developing nations are often hit hardest despite contributing the least to global emissions.
- Future generations: The choices we make today will shape the legacy we leave behind.
By investing in climate solutions now, we not only avoid catastrophe but also unlock opportunities for innovation, resilience, and shared prosperity.
FAQ: Climate Change
What is climate change?
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and other aspects of Earth’s climate system, largely driven today by human greenhouse gas emissions.
What is the difference between climate change and global warming?
Global warming specifically means the rise in the planet’s average surface temperature. Climate change is the broader term, covering the shifts in weather patterns, sea levels, and ecosystems that result from it.
What causes climate change?
The main driver is greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, along with deforestation, agriculture, and livestock. Natural factors like solar activity play a much smaller role.
What are the effects of climate change?
Effects include more extreme weather, rising sea levels, shrinking ice sheets, ocean acidification, threats to food and water supplies, and growing risks to public health.
Is climate change getting worse in 2026?
The trend lines are still moving the wrong way. 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, global fossil fuel emissions hit a new record of 38.1 billion tonnes, and 2023–2025 was the first three-year period to average above 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels.
Can climate change be reversed?
It’s generally described as something we can slow and adapt to rather than fully reverse in the near term. Cutting emissions, protecting forests, and shifting to renewable energy can still prevent the worst outcomes.
What can I do to help stop climate change?
Individual actions add up: switching to renewable energy, using energy-efficient appliances, offsetting your carbon emissions, reducing meat consumption, and supporting clean transportation all make a difference.
Brought to you by Terrapass, your trusted partner in carbon offsets and climate education.
Sources:
- Rose, Brian E. “ATM 623: Climate Modeling.” Lecture04 – Climate System Components, atmos.albany.edu.
- “AAAS Reaffirms Statements on Climate Change and Integrity.” American Association for the Advancement of Science, aaas.org.
- “The Causes of Climate Change.” NASA, 6 Sept. 2019, climate.nasa.gov/causes.
- “The Carbon Cycle.” NASA, earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page5.php.
- Green, Julia K., et al. “Large Influence of Soil Moisture on Long-Term Terrestrial Carbon Uptake.” Nature, vol. 565, no. 7740, 2019, pp. 476–479, nature.com.
- “Is the Sun Causing Global Warming?” NASA, climate.nasa.gov.
- “Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” American Farm Bureau Federation, fb.org.
- “Deforestation and Climate Change.” Earth Day Network, earthday.org/campaigns/reforestation/deforestation-climate-change/.
- “REDD: Protecting Climate, Forests and Livelihoods.” International Institute for Environment and Development, 24 Jan. 2018, iied.org.
- “Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” EPA, 13 Sept. 2019, epa.gov.
- Goodland, Robert and Anhang, Jeff. “Livestock and Climate Change.” worldwatch.org.
- “Extreme Weather and Climate Change.” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 14 Aug. 2019, c2es.org.
- “DoD Releases 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.” U.S. Department of Defense, defense.gov.
- “The Economic Case for Climate Action in the United States.” FEUUS, feu-us.org.
- “Climate Change and Public Health.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cdc.gov.
- “Climate Impacts on Ecosystems.” EPA, 22 Dec. 2016, epa.gov.
- Kijne, Jacob W. “Hugh Turral, Jacob Burke and Jean-Marc Faurès: Climate Change, Water and Food Security.” fao.org.
- “Quick Facts on Ice Sheets.” National Snow and Ice Data Center, nsidc.org.
- “Copernicus: 2025 was the third hottest year on record.” Copernicus Climate Change Service, climate.copernicus.eu.
- “Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in 2025.” NOAA NCEI, ncei.noaa.gov.
- “Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Hit Record High in 2025.” Global Carbon Project, globalcarbonbudget.org.
- “2025 in Review: U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters.” Climate Central, climatecentral.org.
- “NASA Analysis Shows La Niña Limited Sea Level Rise in 2025.” NASA/JPL, jpl.nasa.gov.
The post What Is Climate Change? Causes, Effects & Solutions (2026) appeared first on Terrapass.
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