Connect with us

Published

on

Rainforest countries from across three continents agreed at the Three Basins Summit in Brazzaville last week to work together to finance and protect their ecosystems – but failed to firm up a unified alliance.

Leaders and experts from the Amazon, the Congo basin and south-east Asia met in the Republic of the Congo’s capital to discuss their shared issues and opportunities.

At the end of the summit, countries committed to combining resources and pushing for more nature funding in a joint declaration.

But the outcome was “underwhelming”, one observer tells Carbon Brief, and the event was hindered by “quite crap” organisation.

While countries agreed to cooperate closely, “the summit did not lead to a tri-basin alliance as hoped”, conservation NGO WWF said.

According to another observer, the declaration might “inform policies and strategies at COP28” – the UN climate conference in Dubai later this month.

Below, Carbon Brief explains the Three Basins Summit, the main outcomes from the meeting in Brazzaville and the reaction from observers.

What is the ‘Three Basins Summit’?

The purpose of the Three Basins Summit, the second of its kind ever, was to enhance cooperation between countries of tropical forest basins – the Amazon, the Congo and the Borneo-Mekong.

Between them, these three river basins are home to two-thirds of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity and are rich in both fossil and renewable resources.

The summit was organised by the Republic of the Congo and held in its port capital of Brazzaville.

Denis Sassou Nguesso, president of the Republic of the Congo, had called for the summit at COP27 last year.

Among the key priorities of the meeting were increasing finance for protecting natural forests in the Three Basins, outlining guidance for a carbon market and establishing a “road map” towards regional governance and cooperation.

More than 60 countries were expected to send representatives to the meeting, including 16 from the Congo basin, nine from the Amazon and five from the Mekong, as well as tropical forest countries from the Caribbean, Central America and Africa.

Morocco – convenor of the first summit – the US, EU, Association of Southeast Asian Nations and African Union were also expected to participate.

No heads of state from Amazonia and Asia were present at the meeting, Afrik21 reported – despite previous pledges to attend from Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and French president Emmanuel Macron. In the end, both chose to only send video messages for the high-level leaders’ segment on the last day of the summit. 

Brazil’s Lula da Silva (left) shakes hands with Indonesian president Joko Widodo (right) before a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in May 2023.
Brazil’s Lula da Silva (left) shakes hands with Indonesian president Joko Widodo (right) before a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in May 2023. Neither Lula nor Widodo attended the Three Basins Summit. Credit: Ricardo Stuckert / Alamy Stock Photo

Brazzaville was also the host of the original Three Basins Summit in May 2011, which had seen more than 35 countries participate.

That summit yielded a 13-point declaration that mandated the president of the Republic of the Congo to facilitate an agreement between all basin states to cooperate on climate, biodiversity and sustainable development.

In the 12 years since the first summit, there has been some progress towards regional climate cooperation, building alliances among basin states and securing finance for biodiversity conservation.

In 2016, three climate commissions – one each for the Congo Basin, the Sahel region and African island states – were established as part of an initiative led by the COP22 Marrakech presidency. These commissions were set up to act as the focal points to coordinate climate action in all member states of the African Union.

COP22 also saw a proposal to establish the Blue Fund for the Congo Basin, which was created in 2018 and co-financed by 16 African member states. It currently hosts a pipeline of projects amounting to $13.6bn meant to serve climate, sustainable development and regional integration goals.

In November last year, Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced an alliance on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Indonesia that campaigners dubbed the “Opec for rainforests”.

The three countries agreed to work towards negotiating “a new sustainable funding mechanism under the provisions of the Convention on Biological Diversity”, while also agreeing to advocate for “results-based payments” to stem deforestation and conserve existing forest carbon stocks under a new climate finance target for 2025.

A month later, forests got their own entire section in the COP27 cover decision, a historic first. The COP27 cover text referred to reducing emissions from deforestation, but also alludes to “joint mitigation and adaptation approaches”.

The cover text from COP27 was the first such text to dedicate an entire section to forests.
The cover text from COP27 was the first such text to dedicate an entire section to forests. Source: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2022)

Weeks later, at COP15 in Montreal, countries agreed on a global deal for reversing biodiversity loss in this decade and a financial mechanism to support tropical forest nations.

To the organisers of the Three Basins Summit, these developments “confer responsibility and legitimacy on the world’s three forest and biodiversity ecosystems to define and implement the decade’s operational roadmap for preserving forests and biodiversity”.

In the wake of these meetings, Nguesso announced that his country would host a summit to provide a “space to encourage richer countries to contribute financially” to protect basin regions, Reuters reported earlier this year.

Back to top

What were the main outcomes of the summit?

Financing

Finance for climate action and conserving biodiversity was one of the central pillars of the summit.

Tropical forest nations have historically and collectively demanded that their countries be paid for reducing deforestation and maintaining their forests as carbon sinks, while calling for existing and new funding mechanisms to support this.

The final declaration, which listed seven commitments (highlighted in the image below), included that the countries would “encourage financial mobilisation and the development of traditional and innovative financing mechanisms”. 

Seven commitments outlined in the declaration from the second summit of the Three Basins.
Seven commitments outlined in the declaration from the second summit of the Three Basins. Source: The Three Basins Summit (2023)

It said that developed countries must “urgently” meet their international finance commitments, including to provide $100bn per year in “new, additional, predictable and adequate resources” for climate finance and to mobilise $200bn per year for biodiversity action by 2030.

The declaration also reiterated the need for both a loss-and-damage fund to help global-south countries deal with the impacts of climate change and a commitment from developed countries to provide 0.7% of their gross national income in official development assistance.

Oscar Soria, the campaign director at Avaaz, notes that the declaration marks the “first time that countries of these basins, in a united front” are calling on developed countries to realise their commitments to climate and biodiversity finance. He tells Carbon Brief that the “encouragement of financial mobilisation” was one of the “crucial steps” made at the summit. He adds:

“The big question is how the nations of the Three Basins will use that declaration, which is very specific on calling for funding, but very general on what are the actions that will take place to protect their forests.”

Prof Simon Lewis, a global-change scientist at the University of Leeds and University College London, tells Carbon Brief:

“The complexity here is that countries are quite different, for example, with Democratic Republic of the Congo losing 500,000 hectares of forest a year, but driven by poverty, which is a very different situation compared to Brazil or Indonesia.

“Politically, the main sticking point is, as ever, on finance, and how to generate sufficient funds and get them on the ground in countries to protect forests while helping to eliminate poverty, improve livelihoods [and] bring income to central governments.”

Back to top

Carbon markets

One of the summit’s key objectives was to put in place the architecture “for the creation of a sovereign carbon market on a global scale” to allow “fair remuneration for the ecosystem services produced by the Three Basins”.

A “sovereign” carbon market is one that allows countries to trade carbon credits generated from projects reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, known as REDD+. The UN developed REDD+ in the late 2000s as a way to help developing countries preserve their forests and is part of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The Coalition for Rainforest Nations has pushed for such a “sovereign carbon” market at COP27 and at other international meetings.

However, UN REDD+ credits are currently excluded from Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, which allows countries to voluntarily trade “mitigation outcomes” for use towards their Paris pledges.

Several observers tell Carbon Brief that carbon and biodiversity offset and credit markets “dominated” the summit.

In a draft version of the summit declaration, “sovereign” carbon markets were the only option for financial mobilisation explicitly mentioned.

Financial mobilisation options in a draft declaration of the second Three Basins Summit.
Financial mobilisation options in a draft declaration of the second Three Basins Summit. Credit: The Three Basins Summit (2023)

The draft called for countries to turn to the private sector to “develop” such a market, account for biodiversity restoration as an activity that could generate “premium sovereign carbon” credits and support compliance to make such a market “bankable”.

It suggested the creation of a carbon market based on the “polluter pays” principle, where the party responsible for emissions pays for damage to the natural environment. The draft set out a floor price of $30 per tonne for REDD+ credits and $70 per tonne for internationally traded mitigation outcomes, which was subsequently missing in the final version of the declaration.

Savio Carvalho, the global campaign leader for food and forests at Greenpeace International, tells Carbon Brief that a “sovereign” system to set carbon credit rules between basin countries and trade collectively with other countries around the world could be a “path to hell” without international accountability. He adds:

“If there is any mechanism required, they need to have an architecture that has scrutiny at the highest level and not just some countries having this deal among themselves.”

However, Carvalho tells Carbon Brief that there were some dissenting voices – “even the World Bank”, which spoke out against relying too much on carbon markets. He adds:

“There was also David Cooper [acting executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity], who also said that there are other options also on financing and we need to look at the other options, too.”

In the final version of the declaration, all explicit mentions of a sovereign carbon market were removed. The document instead alludes to developing “innovative financing mechanisms” and a “sustainable system of remuneration for ecosystem services provided by the Three Basins”.

Back to top

Deforestation

Deforestation is a widespread issue for tropical forests in the Amazon, Congo and south-east Asian regions.

The Brazzaville summit “provided a good start on important discussions about the future of these forests” and finding solutions to issues such as deforestation, the WWF global forests lead, Fran Price, said in a statement. She added:

“Going forward, it will be important to have more robust representation and high-level leadership from all three regions and a more structured discussion on topics such as how to collectively tackle drivers of deforestation, [and] promote restoration and sustainable forest management.”

In the Three Basins Summit declaration, countries reaffirmed their commitment to “combat deforestation”, with an added caveat that this does not remove the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.

More than 140 countries previously pledged to “halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030” at the UN climate summit COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were among the signatories.

However, one year on from the pledge, there have been no major meetings to make progress on the pledge nor any organisation set up to push it forward, Climate Home News reported.

At COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh last year, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia were not among the 26 countries that committed to an initiative to build on the 2030 pledge.

A recent report from the Forest Declaration Assessment found that the world is off track to halt deforestation by the end of this decade.

On the sidelines of the Brazzaville summit, the European environment commissioner, Virginijus Sinkevičius, signed a roadmap for the implementation of the EU-Congo forest partnership. This is an EU initiative aimed to help forested countries protect their forests and ensure sustainable trade under the requirements of the EU’s deforestation law

In a statement, Sinkevičius said the roadmap will progress talks in “addressing deforestation and forest degradation in Congo and working towards a sustainable forest economy”.

Soria tells Carbon Brief that “increased awareness about the significance of tropical forests and the urgent need for their protection” was one of the main positive takeaways from the summit. He adds:

“Additionally, the focus on inclusive governance involving Indigenous peoples, youth, and civil society indicated a holistic and inclusive approach to forest conservation.”

Back to top

South-south cooperation

The Three Basins Summit was supposed to define and adopt how regional governance and cooperation across the Three Basins on climate and biodiversity would work and to set up a roadmap and work programme to get there.

Arlette Soudan Nonault, the Republic of the Congo’s environment minister, said at the summit that “joining forces is an absolute necessity”.

The final declaration recognised the need to “pool and capitalise on existing knowledge, experience, resources and achievements in each of the basins”. It also “recognise[d] the value of enhanced cooperation between the Three Basins” and called for the development of solutions together at “the institutional, diplomatic, legal, scientific, technical and technological levels”.

Lewis says that “scientific cooperation was one important strand of the talks”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“Very positively, on the margins of the summit, scientists from the region launch[ed] the Congo Basin Science Initiative, inspired by the successes of Brazilian science, to drive investment into the region’s science and scientists. This could, in time, end some of the major data deficits in this crucial part of the world.”

The summit was “a good initiative” to coordinate between the states of the Three Basins, says Bonaventure Bondo, a youth climate activist and the coordinator of the Democratic Republic of the Congo-based advocacy group Youth Movement for Environmental Protection (MJPE-RDC). But, he adds:

“The absence of some of the people from Amazonia and south Asia certainly had an impact on the quality of the collaboration. We wanted to see all the leaders from the Three Basins gathered around a table to reflect on a common position to defend and to build a real coalition to protect the ecosystems of the three forest massifs in the world.

“This attitude leads us to believe that the resolutions of the Three Basins Declaration will be difficult to implement.”

Soria tells Carbon Brief that “while there was enthusiasm for international collaboration…there was also frustration due to the lack of a formal alliance and specificity in shared goals.” He continues:

“Clearly, there’s no shared understanding on the specific direction and goals of this coalition, although there’s a political will to work together, at least in the rhetoric.”

Kenyan president William Ruto giving a speech at the Three Basins Summit in Brazzaville on 28 October 2023.
Kenyan president William Ruto giving a speech at the Three Basins Summit in Brazzaville on 28 October 2023. Source: Three Basins Summit / YouTube

According to Africanews, participants at the summit “expressed their desire for these meetings to occur regularly”.

In a speech on the final day of the summit, Kenyan president William Ruto announced that his country will end visa requirements for all African countries by the end of the year. Ruto also called on other African nations to work to similarly reduce barriers to cooperation, trade and travel. 

Back to top

Fossil-fuel extraction

In the days leading up to the summit, the environmental research and advocacy group Earth InSight released a report highlighting the dangers that fossil-fuel extraction poses to tropical forests.

The report, based on official government publications, satellite observations and field data, found that nearly 20% of intact tropical forests across the Three Basins overlap with “active and potential” fossil-fuel concessions. Nearly one-quarter of the intact forests are within mining concessions. 

A map of the Congo basin, showing areas of mining concessions (magenta), oil and gas blocks (red), forestry concessions (light green) and intact rainforest (black). More than 72m hectares of undisturbed tropical moist forests in the Congo basin now overlap with oil and gas blocks.
A map of the Congo basin, showing areas of mining concessions (magenta), oil and gas blocks (red), forestry concessions (light green) and intact rainforest (black). More than 72m hectares of undisturbed tropical moist forests in the Congo basin now overlap with oil and gas blocks. Credit: Earth InSight

The report stressed the need to end deforestation and degradation, adding:

“Without a halt to extractive activities – and adequate protection and enforcement, the remaining forests and the Indigenous and local communities that depend on them will continue to be severely impacted.”

More than 60 environmental, human-rights, youth and Indigenous advocacy groups signed a joint statement ahead of the summit welcoming cooperation between the basins. However, it added, the groups were “deeply concerned” with the summit’s focus on carbon markets and a lack of attention paid to Indigenous peoples and environmental defenders.

The statement included a call to “halt and reverse” ecosystem degradation due to “large-scale agriculture, mining, extractives and other industries, such as through a global moratorium on industrial activities in primary forests as well as priority forests”. Additionally, it highlighted the need for a just energy transition and low-carbon development in tropical forest nations.

Ultimately, no mention was made of the impacts of fossil fuel extraction in the summit’s final declaration.

Bondo, whose group MJPE-RDC was one of the signatories of the open letter, tells Carbon Brief:

“Our message has never been well received, because we denounce those companies that violate the rights of communities and destroy our planet for their own selfish interests…We deplore the fact that the African states have not taken clear and concrete decisions to stop all industrial and extractive activities in the forests of the Three Basins.”

Back to top

Indigenous rights

The crucial role of Indigenous peoples and local communities in protecting forests was cited by many observers as a key part of any discussions and outcomes at the summit.

Indigenous peoples’ territories and protected areas play a “vital role” in forest conservation in the Amazon. Indigenous peoples protect as much as 80% of the world’s biodiversity and manage or have tenure rights to more than one-quarter of the world’s land.

A statement from Greenpeace in the lead-up to the summit said that recognising the “fundamental role” of Indigenous peoples and local communities in maintaining forests “is of the utmost importance”. It added:

“Any proposal to conserve these forests that does not integrate the recognition and protection of the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in Africa, Latin America and Indonesia cannot succeed.”

A letter signed by different Indigenous and frontline organisations called on the Three Basins governments to make a number of commitments, including greater recognition of forest communities’ lands and upholding the right of communities to “fully and effectively” take part in decisions for planned developments.

The final declaration from the summit committed to involving “all states and national authorities, including Indigenous peoples” and others such as local communities, young people and non-governmental organisations “in an inclusive manner”. 

Three of the seven commitments outlined by countries in the Three Basins Summit declaration.
Three of the seven commitments outlined by countries in the Three Basins Summit declaration. Credit: The Three Basins Summit (2023)

The role of Indigenous peoples, women and youth in ecosystem management was also discussed at panels during the summit.

The declaration failed to secure “concrete actions” around the “rights and livelihoods” of Indigenous peoples and local communities, Greenpeace said in a statement after the summit.

Soria says that the emphasis on the involvement of Indigenous peoples and local communities “could pave the way for more inclusive and sustainable forest management practices”.

However, Carvalho tells Carbon Brief that he feels Indigenous peoples and youth voices were not sufficiently included in discussions over the three days.

He says there should be “fewer closed doors or more listening and conversation spaces” at future summits. He adds:

“Governments need to ensure that young people and Indigenous communities are not just sitting there, but they are actually involved in the conversations and in the solutions.”

Similar discussions arose at the Amazon Summit in Belém, Brazil in August. The Belém Declaration, which resulted from that summit, said that the active participation and respect of the rights of Indigenous peoples and local communities is crucial to advancing a new common agenda for the Amazon.

It established an “Amazon Mechanism for Indigenous Peoples” to “strengthen and promote dialogue between governments and Indigenous peoples in the Amazon region”.

Back to top

Road to COP28

Reuters reported that experts and policymakers at the Three Basins Summit “discussed shared priorities” ahead of the upcoming UN climate summit COP28, due to begin later this month in Dubai.

The concept of using ”nature-based solutions” to mitigate and adapt to climate change has entered the forefront of discussions around meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement in recent years.

One target of the Kunming-Montreal agreement reached at the COP15 biodiversity summit last December aims to restore 30% of degraded ecosystems by 2030. Ecosystems – such as forests, wetlands and rivers – are natural carbon sinks

Huang Runqiu, China’s minister of ecology and environment, and Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault at COP15.
Huang Runqiu, China’s minister of ecology and environment, and Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault at COP15. Source: Paul Chiasson / Alamy Stock Photo.

At the climate summit COP27 last November, several countries put forward new global initiatives aimed at stopping deforestation and restoring ecosystems.

Participants told the Brazzaville conference that they hoped the three regions would share unified views at COP28, according to Africanews. Bondo, the youth climate activist, tells Carbon Brief that the summit was useful to “consolidate collaboration” between countries across the Three Basins. He adds:

“It was important for the basin states that make the world breathe to have the same message for the next COP28, and to ensure that the forests they use to save the world bring benefits to the local and Indigenous communities that depend on them.”

He says he hopes that COP28 results in “less talk and more action in favour of the protection of forests and the communities that live in them and depend on them”.

Lewis tells Carbon Brief that “cooperation across Amazon and Congo basin countries was an important stepping stone to COP28 and the vision of tropical forest-rich countries having common policy positions” – although he notes that there was a lack of participation from south-east Asian countries. He adds:

“Common positions would give forest-rich countries more leverage in international negotiations.”

But Carvalho from Greenpeace does not believe that the tropical forest countries will share “one voice” in Dubai. He tells Carbon Brief:

“They have done the groundwork, they have garnered support…They now need to build on that foundation between now and COP30 [so that] at least by the time we are heading towards Brazil [the expected host of COP30 in 2025], this initiative is strong and it’s based on a different paradigm.”

Soria says aspects of the Brazzaville declaration around financial mobilisation and payments for ecosystem services “will likely emerge in the COP28 negotiations”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“The discussions and commitments made in Brazzaville can inform policies and strategies at COP28. The disappointment from the lack of a formal alliance might serve as a catalyst, prompting nations to work harder toward consensus.”

Back to top

What was the reaction to the summit’s outcomes?

The summit’s outcome was “underwhelming”, with “no major breakthroughs” achieved, Carvalho says. He tells Carbon Brief:

“There was lots of pomp and all that goes with it, lots of grandstanding and laughter and fun. But, at the end of the day, where do we go from here? Do we have a concrete pathway? There was a lack of clarity on that.”

One success from the summit is that it “managed to garner pan-Africanism in the space”, he adds, especially around forests and nature conservation. Around a dozen African heads of state attended the summit. He says:

“While they haven’t got horizontal Three Basins collaboration, they’ve got quite a horizontal and vertical pan-African buy-in that we need to save the forests and we need to invest in nature protection.”

Soria echoes that sentiment, telling Carbon Brief that “the absence of all heads of state of the Amazon basin and the Borneo Mekong basin countries made this summit an African summit in essence”. He adds:

“While it’s a positive step for the region to start a dialogue to build common positions on biodiversity, climate and land, it lacks that global geopolitical appeal that could build enthusiasm among donor and developed nations.”

The fact that the summit was unable to achieve a “formal alliance” highlights “the complexities involved in aligning the diverse interests and policies of the participating nations”, Soria says. 

African forest elephant at Odzala-Kokoua National Park in the Republic of the Congo.
African forest elephant at Odzala-Kokoua National Park in the Republic of the Congo. Credit: Alamy Stock Photo

In a statement released after the summit, Greenpeace called out the final declaration, saying it “fails to commit to any concrete actions for the protection and restoration of nature”.

Greenpeace continued by pointing out that the focus on “controversial” carbon markets “will only reinforce the commodification of nature and human rights violations if they become the primary such mechanism” for funding conservation.

In addition to the lack of concrete outcomes, the summit itself had a very full schedule and the “logistics were quite crap”, Carvalho says. Many parts of the summit were “utter chaos” with poor organisation and “no space” for civil society to meet, he says.

Another observer tells Carbon Brief that the organisation of the summit was “a mess”.

Ultimately, Soria says, the summit can be regarded with a “mix of hope and disappointment”. He adds:

“Despite the limitations, the summit initiated crucial discussions and commitments for future forest preservation efforts. The declaration, which includes a seven-point plan, disappoints in specificity of actions and commitments from the countries that are part of the Three Basins.”

The post Q&A: What the ‘underwhelming’ Three Basins Summit means for tropical forests appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Q&A: What the ‘underwhelming’ Three Basins Summit means for tropical forests

Continue Reading

Climate Change

The Language of the Land: Revitalizing Indigenous Languages for Ecological Understanding

Published

on

Indigenous languages are more than tools of communication—they are living repositories of ecological knowledge, shaped by millennia of close relationship with the land, waters, skies, and all living beings. Each word, verb, and inflection embed understandings of place, seasonality, climate cycles, and human responsibility to the natural world.
 As climate change accelerates, there is a growing recognition that language revitalization is climate action. Restoring Indigenous languages is about preserving culture and restoring knowledge systems that contain detailed and relational understandings of ecological processes. These languages offer insights urgently needed to adapt to and mitigate today’s environmental crises.

How Language Encodes Ecological Knowledge

Indigenous languages often describe the world relationally, not just descriptively. Many Indigenous terms describe relationships, behaviours, and responsibilities rather than naming things in isolation.
 For example:

  • In the Nuu-chah-nulth language on the west coast of Vancouver Island, there are multiple verbs for water movement—words that distinguish between rippling, trickling, flooding, or rushing. Each verb carries specific environmental cues: changes in rainfall patterns, seasonal flow, or flooding risk. 
  • In Anishinaabemowin, “Aki” refers to Earth as an animate being, reflecting a worldview where the land is not a passive backdrop but a living relative. This linguistic structure affirms that humans are in relationship with land, not dominion over it. 
  • In Gwich’in, different words for caribou describe their life stages, movements, and ecological roles. These linguistic distinctions hold knowledge about migration routes, mating cycles, and the health of the land.  

Such examples reveal how Indigenous languages encode local environmental indicators, climate memory, and survival strategies within everyday speech.  

Language and Climate Resilience: A New Frontier  

As climate change disrupts familiar patterns, Indigenous languages offer tools to interpret these changes through a culturally grounded lens. Revitalizing these languages strengthens identity and cultural continuity and equips communities with local and regional knowledge systems that can assess and respond to ecological disruption.

In many communities, land-based language camps teach youth the names of medicines, constellations, and animals, alongside the protocols and stories accompanying them. This strengthens climate resilience through:

  • Intergenerational knowledge  
  • Cultural pride and ecological responsibility 
  • Reinforced relationships with land, language, and community 

Colonialism, Language Loss, and Environmental Consequences

Colonial policies and practices—including residential schools, forced relocation, and assimilation—aimed to sever the ties between Indigenous Peoples and their languages. Today, many Indigenous languages in Canada are critically endangered, and with their loss comes the erosion of place-based ecological knowledge that is not documented in Western science. 

As communities work to reclaim their languages, they are also reclaiming their role as land stewards, drawing on ancestral teachings that define how to live in balance with all of creation. 

Revitalizing Indigenous languages is thus not only cultural preservation but also environmental justice. It challenges extractive paradigms and reasserts worldviews that prioritize reciprocity, care, and interdependence with Mother Earth.

Recommendations for Readers

  1. Support Language Revitalization Programs 
  2. Contribute to immersion schools, land-based learning camps, and Indigenous language organizations. These initiatives are vital for climate and cultural resilience. 
  3. Incorporate Indigenous Languages into Environmental Education 
  4. If you’re an educator, integrate local Indigenous terms into your climate, geography, and ecology lessons—always with appropriate consultation and permission. 
  5. Attend Workshops and Learn Locally 
  6. Participate in language classes or workshops offered by nearby Indigenous Nations. Learning a few words for local species, landforms, or weather phenomena can deepen your ecological awareness. 
  7. Explore the Language–Climate Connection

Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

(Image Credit: Getty images, Unsplash)

The post The Language of the Land: Revitalizing Indigenous Languages for Ecological Understanding appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

The Language of the Land: Revitalizing Indigenous Languages for Ecological Understanding

Continue Reading

Climate Change

嘉宾来稿:探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测

Published

on

火山喷发对科学家及其气候模型构成了根本性挑战。

众所周知,剧烈的火山喷发会导致地表气温突然下降,多次喷发则会在几十年乃至几个世纪的时间尺度上影响气候变率。

当火山喷发将二氧化硫注入平流层时,会形成气溶胶,从而阻挡阳光到达地球表面。

与人类对气候变化的影响不同,后者发生缓慢且可以在各种社会经济情景下被纳入气候模型进行考量。火山喷发具有突发性,这给气候预测带来了挑战。

目前科学家尚无法预测火山喷发的发生时间、地点以及二氧化硫的排放量。

那么,在进行未来气候预测时,如何考虑火山喷发对气候的影响呢?

上微信关注《碳简报》

在我们最近发表于《通讯-地球与环境》(Communications Earth & Environment)的研究中,我们表明火山喷发对全球气温预测的不确定性产生了重大影响。

我们的研究结果发现,如果将偶发的火山喷发纳入气候预测,突破《巴黎协定》所设定的1.5C升温上限的时间会略有延迟,但与此同时,未来几十年也将出现更多快速升温和降温的时期。

气候预测中的火山强迫

气候科学家将火山喷发对气候的影响——主要是通过释放出二氧化硫气体进入大气——称为“火山强迫”(volcanic forcing)。

当前的气候模型在进行未来预测时采用一个恒定的火山强迫值,该值是根据1850年至今的历史平均强迫值计算得出的。

国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP)也是如此,这项全球模型工作为政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的重要评估报告提供基础数据。

然而,这种方法存在显著局限。

首先,历史平均强迫值无法表示火山爆发的偶发性。

大规模火山喷发呈零星分布——有时好多事件集中发生在某几个十年内,有时两个事件之间则可能相隔上百年。

此外,与数千年尺度的记录相比,从1850年至今的参考时期中,发生过的大规模喷发事件 ——指排放超过3太克(Tg)二氧化硫的喷发事件——相对较少。

最后,早期国际耦合模式比较计划气候模型中所使用的火山强迫重建数据并未包含排放量少于3太克二氧化硫的中小规模喷发。

这是因为这些喷发在1980年卫星时代开始之前大多未被探测到。然而,这些体量较小但发生频率更高的喷发事件,在长期火山强迫中贡献了30%至50%。

采取新方法

传统上,气候科学家认为气候预测中主要存在三种不确定性来源:内部变率、模型不确定性和情景不确定性。

其中,“内部”变率是指气候系统内部自然产生的波动,如厄尔尼诺现象;模型不确定性是指不同气候模型之间结果的差异;情景不确定性则涉及未来几十年全球可能的发展路径。

我们的研究结果表明,火山喷发应被明确视为气候预测中第四个重要的不确定性来源。

为了探究在考虑火山强迫不确定性的情况下,气候预测会发生怎样的变化,我们的研究采用了一种概率方法,这一方法建立在Bethke等人于2017年提出的研究基础之上。

为此,我们构建了“随机强迫情景”,其本质是1000种延续至本世纪末的火山活动可能时间线预测。

这些情景基于冰芯中记录的过去1.15万年火山活动历史,以及卫星观测和地质证据。每个情景都呈现了不同的喷发强度、地点、时间和频率的组合。

(在数学中,“随机”系统是指结果包含随机性或不确定性的系统,因此不可预测;这与“确定性”系统相对,后者的结果可以通过初始条件和一套规则或方程完全预测。)

随后,我们利用2015至2100年期间的随机火上强迫和历史平均火山强迫模拟气候预测,研究共享社会经济路径(SSPs)中三种不同排放情景下的升温变化:低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)、与现行气候政策相符的中等排放情景(SSP2-4.5)、非常高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)。

在这一步中,我们使用了一种称为FaIR的简化气候模型,也称“模拟器”。

通过模拟1000种不同的火山未来情况,我们发现在21世纪未来时期火山喷发所引起的气候不确定性,可能超过同期气候系统本身的内部变率。

我们还发现,到2030年代,火山喷发可能占全球气温预测总不确定性的三分之一以上。

下图中能看到这些结果。图中展示了不同来源对总不确定性的影响。火山为橙色、内部变率为深蓝色、气候模型响应为黄色,未来人类排放情景为绿色。

Chart: Annual mean contribution of uncertainties

对1.5C临界值的意义

我们的模拟结果表明,在气候预测中纳入可能的火山活动时间线后,短期内突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5C升温上限的概率略有下降。

根据不同的排放情景,相较于使用恒定火山强迫的预测,模拟发现超过1.5C升温上限的概率下降了4%至10%。

尽管这一结果听起来似乎令人鼓舞,但未来的火山活动并不能在长期缓和由人类引起的全球变暖。

1815年坦博拉火山的喷发事件就是一个强有力的例证。这次喷发使全球气温平均下降了约0.8C,带来了“无夏之年”,导致欧洲、北美和中国大范围的作物歉收和饥荒。

火山喷发带来的降温效应是短暂的,通常只持续几年,其并不会改变由人类排放所导致的长期变暖趋势。

我们的研究发现,即使考虑多种可能的未来火山活动,在除了最低排放路径以外的所有情景中,全球变暖仍将在几十年内超过1.5C。

即便21世纪火山活动频繁,其对全球变暖的抵消作用也仅占很小一部分——这意味着减排对于实现长期气候目标仍然至关重要。

下方图表展示了在三种排放情景下,使用随机火山强迫(实线)与恒定火山强迫(虚线)时超过1.5C的概率(上图),以及两种强迫方式之间的概率差异(下图)。

Charts: Probability of exceeding 1.5C

十年尺度的气温变率

我们的研究提供的另一个重要发现是:一旦将火山强迫的变率纳入考虑,将更有可能出现极端温暖和寒冷的十年期。

在中等排放情景下,我们发现出现负向十年期趋势——即全球表面温度在某个十年内平均下降——的概率增加了10%到18%。

与此同时,出现极端温暖十年期的概率也随之增加,这反映出火山强迫的变率会同时提高变暖和变冷极端事件发生的可能性。

这一结果凸显了火山喷发如何在十年时间尺度上对全球气温趋势带来显著的波动。

迈向更完善的气候预测

了解火山对气候的影响,对于全面评估农业、基础设施和能源系统在未来所面临的风险至关重要。

使用全面的地球系统模型运行数千种火山情景并不切实际,因为这需要极高的计算资源。但与此同时,当前的方法也存在上文提到的显著局限。

不过,在未来的气候模型工作中,仍有折中方案可行。

即将开展的下一阶段气候建模实验——即CMIP7情景模式比较计划——可以采用更具代表性的“平均”火山强迫基线,这一基线纳入了历史记录中常被遗漏的小型喷发事件的影响。这一偏差现已在用于下一代气候模型模拟的历史火山强迫数据集中得到纠正。

此外,建模团队还应额外运行包含高频和低频未来火山活动的情景,以全面捕捉火山不确定性对气候预测的影响范围。

虽然人类导致的温室气体排放仍是气候变化的主导因素,但若能妥善考虑火山活动的不确定性,将有助于我们获得更全面的未来气候图景及其对社会的潜在影响。

The post 嘉宾来稿:探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

嘉宾来稿:探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测

Continue Reading

Climate Change

There’s Resistance in Resilience

Published

on

My heart is heavy this week. The climate crisis is causing death and destruction across the globe — floods in Texas, North Carolina, China, Columbia, and Afghanistan; extreme heat in multiple continents; senseless wars and genocides — all continue in a somber and sad death march. Authoritarianism is more deeply entrenched across the USA and the contents of the legislation passed and signed by the President just before the 4th of July will cause great harm to people I love and consider family as well as set us back decades in the fight for environmental justice and climate mitigation and adaptation.

I feel like I have been writing about hope and resistance since I started at Climate Generation almost three years ago. And I have been finding it really hard to practice what I preach, what I know, these last few weeks.

And then last night, while doom scrolling on Instagram, I saw a post from @earthlyeducation. I was reminded that we need both to envision the world we actually want to live in, and then have practical strategies to fight for it. The post was a balm for my activated brain, body, and heart. So I share, directly quoting, from their post:

1. Speak truth with love
Start with your circles. Friends, family, workmates. Share the full reality of what’s happening without sugarcoating it. This system is violent and unsustainable. The goal is to wake people up, not with fear, but with clarity and care.

2. Use your gifts for resistance
Whatever you do, you have power. Whether you make music, build things, teach, or organize behind the scenes, your skills matter. Use them to support movements, challenge the status quo, or build alternatives rooted in justice and ecology.

3. Confront power directly
Power will not give up willingly. Join movements that are resisting fossil fuels, corporate greed, and settler-colonial violence. Disrupt the smooth flow of business as usual. Show up where it hurts them most, and don’t ask for permission.

4. Divest from destruction
Move your money out of institutions funding war, fossil fuels, factory farms, and deforestation. Ethical banks and credit unions exist. Every dollar you remove is one less fuelling collapse. Starve the beast wherever you can.

5. Join or build a collective
Collective power is our only hope. Join a climate, housing, indigenous, or justice group that aligns with your values. Or start one with others who are ready. You don’t need to be perfect, just present and willing to grow.

6. Live like capitalism is ending
Radically reduce consumption. Eat more plant-based. Grow and share food. Cut ties with fast fashion and hyper-consumerism. Build your life around regeneration, repair, care and mutual support. Be a living contradiction to this system.

7. Reclaim community and connection
The system wants us isolated and distracted. Fight that by building mutual aid, sharing skills, raising kids together, and restoring kinship with the more-than-human world.

Susan Phillips

Susan Phillips
Executive Director

Photo: Fabrice Florin

The post There’s Resistance in Resilience appeared first on Climate Generation.

There’s Resistance in Resilience

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com