在特朗普（Donald Trump）开始第二个美国总统任期之际，中美再次打响贸易战几乎已成定局，而对能源转型至关重要的矿物可能会陷入这场交锋的漩涡。
特朗普已威胁要对来自中国、以及通过其他国家输往美国的中国商品加征关税。
与此同时，中国正在制定一套“多样化”的政策工具包，以应对日益加剧的贸易紧张局势。最近一个值得注意的例子是中国对锗、镓、石墨和锑等四种矿物实行出口管制。
所有这些矿物都在低碳技术中发挥着重要作用，但同时也具有军事等其他用途。
Carbon Brief等机构的分析表明，中国于2023年夏季首次实施的出口管制并未对关键矿物供应链产生持续影响。
然而，2024年12月初宣布的更严格的管控措施，特别是对美出口的限制，引发了关于这些措施可能产生多大影响的辩论。
在本文中，Carbon Brief探讨了美中之间围绕关键矿物的紧张关系，可能对供应链稳定性以及清洁能源转型产生的影响。
哪些矿物对清洁能源转型至关重要？
矿物对多种低碳技术的发展至关重要。
例如，铟和镓用于太阳能电池板的涂层，铜和“稀土”金属用于风力发电机的导体和永磁体，而从锂到锰的各种矿物则广泛应用于不同类型的电池。
中国在许多矿物的供应链中占据重要地位，尤其是在加工环节。如下表所示，全球超过一半的石墨、稀土元素（REEs）和钒的开采，以及大部分铝、钴、石墨、铟、锂、稀土元素和硅的加工均集中在中国。
然而，并非所有这些材料都被视为“关键矿物”。“关键矿物”是一个政治术语，用于描述那些在重要战略领域中发挥作用的矿物。
美国将50种矿物列为关键矿物，欧盟确定了34种关键矿物和另外16种“战略原材料”，而日本的清单上列出了35种矿物。
尽管中国自2016年以来没有更新其官方的关键矿物清单，但2023年11月，中国国家安全部官方公众号发布的一篇文章透露，中国至少将31种矿物视为关键矿物。
该文章比较了中国（橙色）、欧盟（绿色）和美国（蓝色）关键矿物清单中的重叠与差异部分。
大宗商品咨询公司CRU集团中国办事处特别顾问、前首席执行官约翰·约翰逊（John Johnson）告诉Carbon Brief，中国与欧盟和美国“清单上相似”的矿物在采购方面“竞争更激烈”。
尽管一些国家试图多样化关键矿物进口，以减少对中国的依赖，但国际能源署（IEA）的分析发现，根据已宣布的项目，从现在到2030年，矿物供应的现状不太可能改变。
不过，IEA指出，在电池制造等部分领域，欧洲和美国“已宣布的产能增加”应该“足以”满足2030年的国内应用需求。
但价格评估机构Benchmark Minerals Intelligence专注于石墨的高级分析师托尼·奥尔德森（Tony Alderson）对这一乐观预测表示怀疑。他告诉Carbon Brief，“对于设施利用率能达到100%的情况几乎闻所未闻”。他补充称，2030年以后，美国和欧盟对石墨的需求可能会远远超过供应。
中国控制关键矿物的能力如何演变？
在拜登政府时期，美国采用了“小院高墙”（small yard, high fence）策略，对半导体行业实施了一系列出口管制，并鼓励盟友采取类似措施。
作为回应，中国开始限制一些关键矿物的出口，包括在2023年8月对某些类型的镓和锗的出口实施管制，随后于2023年12月对石墨实施管制、于2024年9月对锑实施管制。
除锑之外，这些管制显然是北京对美国遏制中国半导体进口措施的回应。
与此同时，中国加强了出口管制制度，将分散的一系列出口管制政策统一整合为单一框架。
这包括制订“不可靠实体清单”、出口管制法、反外国制裁法和对被认为是“两用”物项的监管。
策纬咨询公司（Trivium China）的关键矿物和供应链研究负责人科里·康布斯（Cory Combs）告诉Carbon Brief：“（中国）过去的出口管制体系极为零散。”
他补充道，最近政策推进的主要目标之一是通过“确保所有内容集中管理且规则一致”来改善合规性。
这些举措为中国在2024年12月初加强关键矿物出口限制铺平了道路，其加大了对石墨出口的限制，并“原则上”禁止向美国出口镓、锗和锑。
中国商务部发言人表示，此举是对美国通过对中国芯片制造业实施广泛限制，将自己的出口管制“武器化”的回应。
初步出口禁令对关键矿物贸易流向的影响如何？
对中国初步出口管制（涉及镓、石墨和锗）的分析显示，尽管新规出台，但贸易大体上仍在继续。
如下方Carbon Brief汇编的图表所示，在2023年8月限制生效后，受限类型的镓和锗出口暂停了两个月。然而，这些出口从2023年10月起恢复，尽管水平略有下降。
并非所有类型的目标关键矿物都受到了为期两个月的暂停的影响，非管制产品（如锗氧化物）的流量没有明显变化。
对于石墨而言，主要产品的出口量总体保持稳定，但在限制措施实施前出现了出口量激增，这可能是由于囤积所致。2024年的平均出口量高于2022年水平。
奥尔德森告诉Carbon Brief，出口商发现，当局对韩国和日本的出口审批特别迅速，而针对美国和印度的产品“需要更长时间”才能获批。其他分析师报告说，大多数许可证似乎已经获批。
这种结果可能是有意为之。Trivium China的康布斯告诉Carbon Brief，初步出口管制的目标是提高中国对其加工的矿物使用情况的了解，这也是为何要求出口商申请许可证，而不是直接全面禁止出口的原因。
因此，立即切断对其他国家的供应并不是最初公告的目的。
对关键矿物的初步管制总体上遵循了中国之前非关税贸易措施的类似模式。除了锑以外，对关键矿物的管制都是为了应对被认为“损害中国国家主权、安全和发展利益”的企图，而非打响贸易争端的第一枪。
英国皇家联合研究所（RUSI）的一份报告指出，这是因为中国意识到全面出口禁令会加速其他国家实行去风险和实现供应链多样化，从而削弱中国的长期地位。
严格的出口管制也会让中国国内付出代价，影响工业活动和更广泛的经济增长。因此，皇家联合研究所认为，出口管制可能会被调整到既能吸引关注，又不会造成其所说的严重经济影响的程度。
对美管制是否标志着中国战略的重大变化？
2024年12月初宣布的措施显示，中国在对关键矿物出口管制方面进行了明显升级。
根据新规，镓、锗和锑“原则上”将不再允许出口到美国，石墨的销售也将受到更严格的控制。
康布斯与Trivium China联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克（Andrew Polk）在分析中写道，这些限制措施是一个信号，表明中国“准备更积极地反击美国的行动”。
这呼应了中国央行前行长易纲的说法。据《南华早报》报道，易纲表示：“我们都明白，从经济学角度，不予报复是最优解……但（面对国内压力），决策者几乎没有选择。”
奥尔德森指出，还需要更多时间观察政策实施的“严格程度”。就石墨而言，目前尚不清楚哪些产品会受到影响——更严格的管制可能仅限于“用于军事最终用途材料的99.999%（纯度）”，而非用于电动车电池的低纯度石墨。
Trivium China的评估指出，此次宣布表明中国将“堵住”允许“出口泄漏”的漏洞，但目前尚不清楚“北京会在多大程度上调查或惩罚涉嫌违规转口的第三国”。
彭博经济（Bloomberg Economics）高级地缘经济分析师杰拉德·迪皮波（Gerard di Pippo）对威胁的严重性持怀疑态度，他写道：“中国缺乏强制第三国遵守规定所需的法律影响力、出口管制监控能力和联盟网络。”
其他分析人士告诉《麻省理工科技评论》（MIT Technology Review），由于美国已采取措施使其供应链多样化，因此“在大多数情况下，这些禁令不会产生重大经济影响”。
尽管如此，奥尔德森表示，当前的不确定性凸显了对关键矿物的依赖者而言，“本地化至关重要”。
未来中美紧张局势会加剧对关键矿物的控制吗？
康布斯和波尔克写道，中国近期管制的动机尚不明确。这可能是为了抗议美国限制特定芯片及制造工具的出口，以及将140家中国公司列入贸易黑名单，也可能是为了“警告即将上台的特朗普政府”不要加剧紧张局势。
外界普遍预计，特朗普开始其第二任期后，美中贸易紧张关系将加剧。
美国两党都对中国“威胁”其工业能力表示担忧。然而，特朗普第二任期可能会优先使用广泛的关税来缩小对华贸易逆差。
康布斯告诉Carbon Brief，北京的目标是“改变美国的行为”，因此在争端中会使用特朗普能够理解的手段，如广泛的贸易关税，而不是出口管制等更细微的工具。
他补充说，特朗普的顾问们会在多大程度上重视关键矿物还有待观察。如果北京使用额外管制施压特定的美国公司，促使它们向美国政府施压，这一问题可能会进入决策视野。
约翰逊指出，中国有理由避免将关键矿物出口问题进一步升级，鉴于其在高纯度石英、铁矿石和钾肥等矿物出口等方面依赖于美国。
此外，他表示，各国认为的关键矿物“会随着时间而变化”，因为新技术会创造对新矿物的需求，同时使其他矿物变得过时。
回收技术的发展也可能缓解供应链压力。国际能源署指出，如果成功扩大回收利用规模，“到2050年，新采矿活动需求可降低25%至40%”。
The post Q&A: 中美贸易战对能源转型意味着什么？ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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