暴雨、洪水和热浪等极端天气事件被称为中国的“新常态”。
今年四月的暴雨和洪水导致中国损失近120亿元人民币（16.5亿美元），灾害损失“为近10年同期最重”。六月，中国约有33条河流“超过警戒水位”，数十人丧生。广西桂林遭遇自1998年以来最大洪水。
不到一年前，北京气象部门在2023年7月的短短五天内记录了745毫米的降雨量，几乎是该市往年整月的降雨量。
北京周边的河北省在同一时间也出现了强降雨。2023年7月，临城县的降雨量超过1米，是其年平均降雨量的两倍。
2021年7月，河北的邻省河南出现了“千年一遇”的暴雨。
虽然中国已经出台了更多政策来改善其应急系统和基础设施，但日益增多的极端天气事件仍继续带来挑战。
在本篇Q&A中，Carbon Brief将探讨中国近期洪灾的原因、中国如何适应洪灾，以及是否需要未雨绸缪、重新审视其防洪系统。
近期洪灾背后的原因是什么？
近年来频繁发生的暴雨和洪水背后有各种因素。
英国布里斯托尔大学地理科学学院名誉研究员奥利弗·温（Oliver Wing）博士告诉Carbon Brief：“总体而言，由于克劳修斯-克拉佩龙方程，我们预计气候变暖的世界将更加湿润。”
根据该方程，气温每升高1°C，空气中的湿度通常会增加约7%，这意味着气候变暖时降雨量可能会更大。
奥利弗·温指出，“对于日以下降雨量，我们看到的比例关系比该方程所显示的还要大。这使得地表水（更有可能）由于短时和高强度的局部降雨增加而在城市形成洪水”。
此外，他表示，“气候变暖正导致大多数地方的海平面上升，这意味着风暴潮造成破坏的基线更高”。
据《中国日报》引述中国气象局国家气候中心首席预报员郑志海称，自四月份以来，中国广东和广西等南部沿海省份频繁出现强降雨，其原因是“高于正常水平的温度”。
郑志海补充说，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（在2023年中期进入厄尔尼诺升温阶段的自然气候周期）是部分原因，因为其提高了海面温度，并将大量水蒸气从南中国海和孟加拉湾引向中国南部。
宁波诺丁汉大学地理科学系系主任陈加信博士告诉Carbon Brief，今年4月广东的降雨模式与2023年9月6日至8日台风“海葵”过后的强降雨十分相似。
具体而言，强降雨是由来自东南亚和南亚季风模态中的低压湿气流，与来自菲律宾和西太平洋的另一个低压雨带碰撞产生的。
台风“海葵”给香港带来了140年来最严重的暴风雨，并在广东和福建两省造成了最严重的降雨。
陈加信表示，虽然在气象学意义上这些强烈暴风雨并不罕见，但由于全球变暖，其发生的频率越来越高。
四月是季风季的开始。大范围的暴风雨通常在四月平均发生三次。但是，今年中国仅在该月就遭受了至少八次区域性极端降雨事件侵袭，而且都是接连发生的。
在重庆和湖南等受影响地区，河流洪水的现象十分普遍。对于一般的河流洪水来说，确定原因可能更为复杂。
“有很多调节因素。在气候变暖的情况下，较干燥的土壤可能会使土地吸收更多降雨，从而减轻洪水带来的危害。许多洪水不是由强降雨造成，而是由融雪或落在饱和土壤上的低强度、长时间降雨造成的。 因此，单凭气候变暖导致降雨量增加不能合理推断出河流洪水也会增加。”奥利弗·温说。
陈加信表示，自然原因“当然”增加了湿度，“但人类引起的气候变化导致温室效应，造成海水温度上升，从而引起更多的风暴和低压雨带。这是事实。”
奥利弗·温同意，人类导致的气候变化的“热力学影响”增加了与风暴相关的降雨量。
但他补充道：“我们不甚了解的是，人为气候变化如何改变了气候系统的动态，以及这种变化在哪里和如何加剧或抑制了热力学响应。”
人类导致的气候变化起了什么作用？
许多研究发现，海面温度升高正在加剧高强度的连续极端降雨。
联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的第六次评估报告（AR6）也指出，温室气体排放造成的人为气候变化导致海洋变暖，这也“很可能是已观测到的全球陆地强降水加剧的主要驱动因素”。
根据第六次评估报告，在全球相比工业化前升温1.5°C的情况下，东亚和中亚极端年最大日降雨量（Rx1）和五日累积降雨量（Rx5）预计将比1971年至2000年分别增加28%和15%。
该报告还指出，与之类似的是，在中国的城市群中，“全球从升温1.5°C增加到2°C可能会使非常潮湿日子的总降水强度增加1.8倍，最大五日降水量增加一倍”。
中国气象局中国气象科学研究院的陈阳教授告诉Carbon Brief，中国人为造成的强降雨的强度甚至超过预期。
“由于气候变暖导致大气湿度增加，潜热释放与潮湿风暴中的上升运动之间的反馈作用更强，因此人为造成的中国季风区强降水的加剧程度明显大于预期。”他解释说。
他补充说，与纬度相似的其他地区相比，这种反馈在中国东部尤为明显。
最近发表在《自然》上的一项研究还预计，由于气候变暖，中国的风暴活动将变得更加频繁和剧烈。研究显示，到21世纪末，中国东部沿海热带气旋的年平均发生频率预计将比现在增加16%。
除了人类活动引发的气候变化之外，城市设计和建造不当，以及地下水开采、城市发展导致的建筑物重量、城市交通系统和采矿活动造成的沉降，也会加剧洪灾。
美国路易斯安那州立大学社会学系助理教授凯文·斯迈利（Kevin Smiley）博士告诉Carbon Brief：“气候变化正在加剧极端天气的严重程度和频率。由气候变化引起的额外降雨可能会导致原本只是建筑物的停车场在下雨天出现水坑，而现在洪水会漫过建筑物大门，造成数千美元的损失。”
“重要的是要记住：气候变化是人为的，所以这种风险的增加也有人为的根源。”
中国如何适应日益频繁的洪水？
中国修建了许多大型水利工程来防止洪涝灾害，例如2002年启动的从长江取水的南水北调工程。
在中国国务院最新公布的《国家水网建设规划纲要》中，在2035年前建成“国家水网”是未来防洪的“骨干”措施之一。
文件中的“骨干”工程还包括主要河流上的大型硬工程结构，如堤防、防洪闸和河道泄洪网络，以减轻洪水风险。
与此同时，发表在《海洋与海岸管理》（Ocean & Coastal Management）杂志上的一项研究发现，“基于自然的解决方案”在中国也变得流行起来。
沿海岸线和河口恢复和保护淡水沼泽、红树林和湿地，正在被用来为潮汐和风暴潮提供缓冲。它们包括上海的崇明岛湿地（长江三角洲）和深圳湾的福田和米埔湿地（珠江三角洲）。
规划文件中提出的另一个概念是“加快智慧发展”，利用互联网、数据和技术来监测和预防洪水。
首都北京已整合高清摄像机、望远镜、雷达图和卫星云图的数据，以提供实时灾害更新，从而改善应急响应时间。
中国东部港口城市宁波与电信公司合作，分析大数据并发布信息。
应急管理部表示，这些措施使2018年至2022年因自然灾害造成的死亡和失踪人数与2013年至2017年相比减少了54%。2023年，死亡人数继续下降，但与2018年至2022年水平相比，被毁建筑物数量和直接经济损失分别上升了97%和13%。
2015年，海绵城市的概念被写入住房和城乡建设部的政策文件。该计划在全国推广，武汉（1100万人口）、郑州（1000万人口）等30个主要城市被选为试点城市。
这些海绵城市旨在通过城市地区的“绿蓝设施”，如绿色屋顶、透水路面和雨水公园，收集、净化和再利用至少70%的洪水。整个系统旨在一次性解决城市供暖、淡水匮乏和洪水泛滥等问题。
中国也改进了其恢复过程。例如，在2021年台风“烟花”期间，宁波的洪灾受害者通过改进的在线文件系统，在一小时内就能获得经济补偿。
这些措施效果如何？
陈加信告诉 Carbon Brief，中国“在洪水和干旱灾害的准备、应对和恢复方面做得非常好”，这是两种最具破坏性的自然灾害。
“作为一个全球南方国家，”他将中国称为发展中国家，“中国用海绵城市和增强生态的解决方案应对气候变化，做得相当不错”。
然而，温认为，基于自然的解决方案，如海绵城市，可能会“很快饱和”，因此“它们的作用可能会被夸大”。他继续说：
“这些类型的干预措施对于相对频繁的低强度降雨最有效。在非常强烈、罕见的降雨（其概率在全球变暖的情况下迅速变化）期间，它们将很快不堪重负，造成最大的破坏和痛苦。”
2021 年，一场“历史罕见”的暴雨和洪水影响了海绵城市郑州 1400 多万人，造成 398 人死亡，凸显了海绵城市在气候变化面前的局限性。
《自然》杂志的研究称，海绵城市的设计只能承受 30 年一遇的降雨事件。陈加信说，除此之外，它还会造成一种虚假的安全感。它鼓励更多人迁往高风险地区，导致这些地区的人口和资产增加，而这些聚集地的保护需求也应声而涨，形成一种被称为“堤坝效应”的循环。
堤坝效应是一种悖论：修建防洪堤坝会导致人们对洪水风险的认知降低，业主更有可能投资于自己的房产，从而增加堤坝决口时的潜在损失。
根据《自然》杂志的论文，洪水的影响是人口稠密的黄河三角洲和珠江流域面临的一个关键挑战，这两个地区都面临着很高的洪水风险。
斯迈利说：“当社会的脆弱性与灾害交织在一起时，风险就会显现出来。脆弱性是社会性的，社会脆弱性越大，洪水的影响就越大……社会的脆弱性还是不公平的。一个有一定财富和良好保险的家庭，比一个靠薪水度日的家庭能更快、更成功地从洪水中恢复过来。”
中国政府通过特别政府债券拨款超过一万亿元人民币（1380 亿美元），用于支持弱势公民和今年 3 月遭受自然灾害的地区重建。据官方媒体《环球时报》报道，超过一半的资金将用于“防洪等水利工程建设”。
但过去，财政支持的提供一直受到质疑。全球再保险公司慕尼黑再保险（Munich Re）称，2023 年台风杜苏芮袭击中国时，在总计约 250 亿美元的损失中，只有 20 亿美元得到了承保。
此外，2015 年至 2018 年间，这些海绵城市的建设已经花费了中国 15-18 亿元人民币（2.1-2.5 亿美元）。维护费用将使这笔费用更高。
《自然》杂志的作者建议政府应致力于将分散的“灰色基础设施”（排水沟、管道和泵站等建筑结构）整合到现有的绿色蓝色设施中，但不应仅仅依赖工程基础设施。
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究所研究员舒乐乐博士告诉《知识分子》杂志：“仅靠传统的工程方法无法减轻目前强降雨的影响”。
“每次下大雨，它造成的损失都会成为头条新闻，主要是因为城市里住着太多人，”舒补充道。
洪水易发地区的政府部门合作不当也导致灾害管理缺乏统一调配。
《自然》杂志的研究补充说，就长江和珠江三角洲而言，其缺乏一个覆盖全区的、且可以“把地划分土和投资融合起来的水文系统”。
中国社会科学院生态文明研究所研究员郑艳博士在 2023 年北京洪水过后指出，政府机构往往只顾自己的管辖范围，只想着转移问题，迅速疏导洪水，这给下游地区的城市带来了压力。
斯迈利说：“洪水不会在意人为划定的市、区或省的边界。一个地方有效的城市设计可能会减轻那里的洪水风险，但会间接增加其他地方的风险。以正义为中心、集体思考（统一筹划）可以提供一个本地化的解决方案来帮助所有人有效恢复，而不是加剧不平等。”
中国可以从其他城市学到什么？
洪水是世界各地城市都面临的挑战，中国因此可以借鉴大量的想法和技术。
《自然》杂志的论文建议，长江三角洲和珠江三角洲可以向恒河-布拉马普特拉河-梅格纳河三角洲和湄公河三角洲学习，“通过利用和调整因气候变化和人类活动而迅速变化的三角洲潜在动态，改善其对沉降和侵蚀等区域挑战的应对”。
该论文还提倡建设一个“积极主动、具有前瞻性、具有足够能力限制洪水破坏性影响并及时恢复灾前状态”的弹性社会。
鹿特丹是一座四面环水、人口 60 万的荷兰三角洲城市。鹿特丹建造了蓄水设施，例如具有蓄水功能、面积相当于四个奥林匹克游泳池的地下停车场， 且安装了绿色屋顶和外墙来吸收雨水。
日本在东京郊区埼玉县在地下建造了一个复杂的混凝土隧道和拱顶网络。这个网络位于大约地下 14 层，可容纳的雨水可以装满 1,000 多个奥运会标准泳池。
这两个城市的地下洪水转移设施经常被用作气候变化前沿城市可行的防洪系统的典范。
香港在跑马地马场的下方也有一个类似的地下雨水储存系统，旨在抵御 50 年一遇的洪水事件。
然而，陈加信表示，防洪措施的有效性难以横向比较，因为每个城市的地理、人口、密度和地形都非常不同。
他告诉 Carbon Brief：“在我看来，中国的特大城市应该考虑利用地下空间来储存超强暴雨突然排放的极端雨水……东京和鹿特丹利用地下空间的做法就相当明智。”
The post Q&A：中国如何适应日益频繁的洪灾 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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Four Ugandan farmers filed a case with London’s High Court on Tuesday, aiming to stop the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) from starting to operate by asking the court to apply Uganda’s laws against the project’s UK-registered company.
The controversial 1,443-kilometre (897-mile) pipeline, majority-owned by French energy company TotalEnergies, aims to carry crude from Ugandan fields for export through neighbouring Tanzania. About 80% has been built so far, according to its developers.
The pipeline’s first oil exports are expected as soon as October, according to its developers, and the campaign group Avaaz, which is backing the farmers’ crowdfunded lawsuit, called it “one final chance to stop one of the worst oil pipelines on the planet”.
The claim, filed by London law firm Leigh Day, argues that EACOP Ltd’s role in developing and operating the pipeline breaches Ugandan laws that protect citizens’ right to a clean and healthy environment.
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Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline
The farmers and their lawyers will argue that a UK-based entity linked to the East African Crude Oil Pipeline has breached Ugandan law and construction should halt -
French court rules Total must revise climate plan to account for all emissions
Oil and gas giant TotalEnergies has been given six months by a court to publish a more robust climate plan -
Uganda cites contentious IEA fossil fuel scenario backed by Trump administration
Critics of the African nation’s oil ambitions say referencing the International Energy Agency’s most pessimistic scenario for climate action is a risky policy
One of the claimants, Racheal Tugume, told a press conference she had been displaced from her land due to the pipeline’s construction, which she said had damaged local rivers, wildlife and ecosystems that communities depend on for their livelihoods just as erratic weather linked to climate change takes an increasing toll.
“I am very happy that there are people in countries like the UK who are listening to us, who are behind us and who have come to support us,” Tugume said, adding that she hoped the case would bring justice to communities affected by the pipeline.
Ugandan law in UK court
While the pipeline is a joint venture led by TotalEnergies, with smaller stakes owned by Ugandan, Tanzanian and Chinese national oil firms, it is operated by EACOP Ltd, a company registered to an office in London’s Canary Wharf financial district.
EACOP Ltd did not respond to a request for comment.
The claim appears to be the first attempt to have Uganda’s climate and environmental protections enforced in a foreign court, partly reflecting concerns over whether cases challenging the multibillion-dollar pipeline would get a fair trial in Uganda.
Ugandans living near new oil pipeline let down by compensation programmes
Concerns about access to a fair hearing are among the issues the court will consider when deciding if it should take on the case, said Matthew Renshaw, partner at Leigh Day.
Renshaw said that precedents including the Nigerian oil pollution case against Shell have shown that claims against British-registered companies for harms overseas can be successfully fought in UK courts.
“We are proud to represent the four brave principled individuals,” Renshaw said.
Constitutional protections
The pipeline project has already been subject to repeated lawsuits in several countries, none of which have succeeded. A climate lawsuit filed in Uganda more than a decade ago by a group of young people has yet to conclude. Another at the East African Court of Justice, brought by campaign groups against Uganda and Tanzania, was rejected on procedural grounds last November.
A separate ongoing lawsuit in TotalEnergies’ home country of France – a refiled version of an earlier failed claim – cannot stop EACOP going ahead, but it does seek damages from TotalEnergies for affected communities.
With the newly launched case, Leigh Day’s legal adviser Marc Willers said the claim draws on specific Ugandan laws in a bid to stop EACOP’s operations.
Uganda may see lower oil revenues than expected as costs rise and demand falls
These include the Ugandan constitution, a 2019 environmental law and the National Climate Change Act 2021, which gives Ugandans the right to bring a case before a court in circumstances where anyone or any entity threatens the country’s ability to mitigate climate change.
Stopping a “carbon bomb”
The pipeline, which will link Uganda’s Lake Albert oil fields to Africa’s east coast in Tanzania, has already displaced thousands of people and cuts through the Lake Victoria basin, one of East Africa’s major freshwater systems and a critical water source for around 40 million people.
According to the BankTrack non-profit, when the pipeline is at peak production, it will carry 216,000 barrels of crude oil per day and release over 33 million tonnes of carbon emissions each year. Over its full lifetime of 25 years, it is estimated to release about 379 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions across its value chain including construction, refining and product use.
A May 2026 report from Earth Insight also warns that the pipeline and related infrastructure could affect 158 wetlands in Uganda, 11 rivers, 44 protected areas and seven key biodiversity areas while disrupting about 2,000 square km of protected wildlife habitats.
This is why the primary focus of the UK court case is to stop the operation of the pipeline in its tracks, Leigh Day’s Willers said, calling it a “carbon bomb” that would worsen the world’s climate crisis.
Long wait for first hearing
While the purpose of the case is to stop the pipeline from launching operations, Renshaw said it could take about 12 months before the case gets a first hearing and about 18 months before it goes to trial.
Billions unlocked as Green Climate Fund agrees to spend more and save less
The farmers are, however, seeking an injunction to stop EACOP Ltd from proceeding with operations. In the event that shipments begin, the lawsuit will still seek to stop the pipeline from then on, Renshaw said.
“We will be doing what we can to expedite matters but it is possible that EACOP will have started operating the pipeline before the claim is heard. If that is the case, the claim would intend to halt operations from that point. For example, the pipeline may operate for just one year rather than 30-plus, resulting in far less harm,” he said.
The post Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline appeared first on Climate Home News.
Ugandan farmers launch UK court case against East African oil pipeline
Climate Change
Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole
Welcome to Cited, your essential guide to new climate research.
In the news
‘HEAT ALERT’: At least 25 people died as a “heat dome” smothered the eastern half of the US, reported the Guardian, with more than 20 states under “stifling temperatures more than 100F (38C)”. More than 140 million people were under heat alerts, the outlet said, with dead bodies found in “homes with no air conditioning, outside their residences, on the street and in parked cars”. Analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that the combined heat and humidity would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused warming, reported the New York Times.
‘MORTALITY WILL RISE FURTHER’: Meanwhile, extreme heat continued to hit Europe, with Le Monde reporting on temperatures of 40C in France, Portugal and Spain again this past weekend, alongside “devastating” wildfires. Public Health France doubled its preliminary estimate of the “excess deaths” from the extreme heat in late June, from 1,000 to more than 2,000, according to the Guardian. The higher figure was still “probably an underestimate”, the agency said. Analysis published by Carbon Brief put the figure at 2,700 heat-related deaths. A WWA attribution study, covered by Carbon Brief, found that Europe’s June heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” even 50 years ago.
‘BOOST TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURES’: The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher”, reported Reuters. A WMO scientist told the newswire that “El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Niño”.
Research picks
Extremes
- The annual season when “intense” tropical cyclones occur has lengthened by 10-14 days per decade across the world since the 1980s | Nature Communications
- There is an “increasing” and “overlooked” global threat from glacial outburst floods from small lakes | Nature Sustainability
- Female smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa experience crops losses 2-2.5 times greater than male smallholders in periods of extreme heat | Nature Sustainability
Policy
- The summaries for policymakers in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mitigation reports over 2001-22 “have not yet become more solution-oriented while abiding by their policy-neutrality principle” | npj Climate Action
- Two-thirds of countries address inequality in their national pledges under the Paris Agreement – particularly in “countries with lower levels of human development and greater income inequality” | Climate and Development
- To “future proof” the Paris Agreement’s “well-below 2C” limit, it should be interpreted as a median “peak warming” of 1.6-1.8C, rather than a 66-90% chance of staying below 2C | Nature Climate Change
Land sink
- From 2001 to 2015, northern Eurasia absorbed about 0.47bn tonnes of carbon each year – around one-third of the total global land carbon sink | Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Model simulations of potential land-use carbon emissions out to 2100 show that “deforestation and forest regrowth dominate variability” of emissions, with policy timing and ambition “exerting strong control” | Nature Communications
- Tropical forests are facing an increase in areas that exceed critical temperatures where their “photosynthetic system breaks down” | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Captured
On 21 June, global average sea surface temperature (SST) reached a record high for the day of the year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Daily SST for the global ocean, excluding polar regions, reached 20.86C on 21 June, exceeding the 20.83C reached on the same day in both 2023 and 2024, the C3S said. Global SST has remained at record levels for every day since. The conditions “could indicate the beginning of a new phase, leading, once more, to uncharted territory”, said C3S director Carlo Buontempo.
56 hours and 30 hours
The amount of time that the average lifespan of tropical cyclones in the north-east and north-west Pacific has shortened, respectively, over 1982-2024, according to a study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. This shorter lifespan “compresses the time available for weather forecasting and disaster preparedness”, the authors said.
Spotlight
The ozone hole and climate change
As a new “thought experiment” asks whether the hole in the ozone layer could, theoretically, have been identified decades before it was discovered, Carbon Brief explores the interactions between climate change and the ozone hole.
It is now more than 40 years since the discovery of the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, detailed in the journal Nature in 1985.
A study more than a decade earlier had predicted that chlorine-based substances – such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – could lead to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere.
So, in theory, how early could the ozone hole have been detected?
New research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, explored this very question.
Study co-author Prof Susan Solomon from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is a leading atmospheric scientist. In the late 1980s, Solomon and colleagues identified the mechanism behind how CFCs were causing ozone depletion.
The new study is a “thought experiment”, Solomon told Carbon Brief, asking when scientists could have discovered the ozone hole had they had access to modern satellite observations.
“We found that depletion could have been detected as early as 1957 in the tropical upper stratosphere, where natural variability is especially small,” explained Solomon.
This would have been before the use of CFCs became widespread, Solomon added. Instead, early ozone depletion was caused by carbon tetrachloride, a chemical used as a cleaning agent, as well as in fire extinguishers and for producing refrigerants.
For many decades, the ozone hole and global warming have often been confused by the public and the media, Solomon explained:
“It’s common to imagine that because ozone is so important at shielding us from the UV [ultraviolet] light that causes skin cancer, then having less ozone must mean the Earth would warm up.”
For example, in a 1995 editorial, the Los Angeles Times congratulated the Nobel prize-winning chemists who identified the threat of CFCs to the ozone layer. The newspaper noted that these processes “threaten calamitous global warming by damaging the Earth’s protective layer of ozone”.
However, said Solomon, “the Earth is warmed much more by visible light – UV doesn’t really contribute, so ozone depletion doesn’t cause significant warming”.
Regional impacts
The depletion of ozone actually has a very small cooling effect at the Earth’s surface. But this is more than outweighed by the warming impact of CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances.
This warming impact means that efforts to reverse ozone depletion have had a beneficial impact on the climate.
The Montreal Protocol, a 1987 international agreement to phase out CFCs, “has played – and is playing – a very substantial role in safeguarding climate too”, said Solomon:
“It turns out that the CFCs and their replacement gases HCFCs [hydrochlorofluorocarbons] are strong greenhouse gases, so phasing out their production has not only avoided a lot of ozone depletion that would otherwise have occurred, it also had a big influence on global warming.”
HCFCs were considered as “transitional substitutes” for CFCs – they still damaged ozone, but to a lesser extent – until ozone-safe alternatives were commercially available.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are not ozone depleting, began to be used widely in the 1990s. However, HFCs are also potent greenhouse gases. HFCs and similar replacements are now being phased out under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.
While the ozone hole itself has only a very small impact on global temperatures, it does have a clear impact on the regional climate over Antarctica.
Prof David Thompson from Colorado State University, working with colleagues including Solomon, has published research demonstrating that “changes in southern-hemisphere winds linked to the stratospheric ozone losses extend all the way down to the ground in some seasons”, explained Solomon.
This has “reduc[ed] warming that would have occurred in interior Antarctica and enhanc[ed] warming in the Antarctic Peninsula region”, she said.
The knock-on impacts include “wind changes [that] actually extend beyond Antarctica to the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere, where they even affect rainfall”, she added.
Preprints to watch
Carbon Brief’s pick of new papers under review
- The drying impact over Africa from using stratospheric aerosol injections to stabilise global temperatures would only be minimised “when combined with a strong decarbonisation effort” | Earth System Dynamics
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole could “shape” the playing conditions at the Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia | Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
- A “strong” weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would “profoundly alter the climate-carbon cycle system”, underscoring the “importance of explicitly accounting for AMOC risks in long-term climate assessments” | Earth System Dynamics
Noticeboard
- 6 July-25 September: Registration open for experts to review the first-order draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group I report
- 7-15 July: UN High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, New York
- 19 July: Application deadline for a postdoctoral scholar in transdisciplinary climate research at Penn State University, US | Salary: unknown
- 22 July: Application deadline for PhD project on “climate change impacts on the Antarctic coastal ocean carbon sink” at the University of East Anglia, UK
- 26 July: Application deadline for PhD projects on “AI for land-atmosphere feedbacks during hydroclimatic extremes” at the Helmholtz School for Integrated Data Science in Environmental & Life Sciences, Germany
- 29 July: Application deadline for an assistant professor in Earth and environmental geosciences (palaeoclimatology) at Colgate University, US | Salary: $97,500-101,500
- 31 July: Application deadline for PhD project on Arctic Ocean methane oxidation at Stockholm University, Sweden
Cited is researched and written by Cecilia Keating, Robert McSweeney, Ayesha Tandon, Daisy Dunne and Dr Giuliana Viglione.
Please send tips, feedback and upcoming climate research to cited@carbonbrief.org
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cited email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole
In June 2026, a record-breaking heatwave swept across Europe, with France among the first and hardest hit countries.
In a new analysis, we estimate that the extreme conditions caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths in France.
We also show how France’s extreme temperatures in June exceeded projections from climate models.
Our findings illustrate the human toll of extreme weather as the world warms.
We also highlight the challenges in projecting the magnitude of future heatwaves and their impacts on people.
Outpacing projections
For most of this century, Europe has seen summer heat extremes that outpace projections from climate models.
Several different factors likely explain this trend, including reductions in planet-cooling aerosols as nations have cleaned up their air pollution, as well as changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which models struggle to represent.
In June 2026, daily high temperatures averaged across France reached 36.9C, shattering the previous June record set in 2022 by 2.4C.
[For more on the impacts and coverage of Europe’s June heatwave, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.]
The rise in observed temperatures in France has outpaced projections made by climate models, with June maximum temperatures more in line with what was expected for the 2070s.
This is illustrated in the figure below, which shows how France’s average maximum daily high temperature for June recorded in 2026 (black line) compares to climate model projections (blue and orange lines).
Counting the death toll of climate change
The downstream impacts of these extreme temperatures are lethal.
Scientists are able to estimate the death toll of high temperatures in many locations, depending on the availability of mortality and climate data.
There are several ways to do this.
One option is to examine death certificates to see which deaths have been directly recorded by physicians as related to heat. However, there is strong evidence that this method significantly undercounts heat-related deaths, as most death certificates do not consider environmental factors such as heat when diagnosing the cause of death.
Alternatively, it is possible to calculate the rate of total (“all-cause”) mortality in a given time period relative to previous time periods – for example, by comparing the total number of deaths in June 2026 compared to the average of previous Junes. This “excess deaths” figure can be used as an estimate of the deaths from a heat wave.
Using this approach, Public Health France attributed around 2,000 deaths in France to the extreme heat in the week of 22-28 June.
Finally, scientists can use long-term data on overall mortality and correlate changes in mortality with changes in temperature to understand the statistical relationship between the two.
Research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2025 that used this third approach found that mortality rates in France increase rapidly in cold or hot conditions as daily maximum temperatures depart further from approximately 20C.
This pattern of a U-shaped response of mortality to temperature – shown in the figure below – is very consistent across time periods and regions around the world.
To calculate the death toll of the June 2026 heatwave in France, we compared observed temperatures over 12-29 June to their baseline average over 1980-2025.
The difference between these two temperatures helps us understand how many more people died than they would have in the absence of such extreme conditions.
Over 12-29 June, we found that France has experienced around 2,700 heat-related deaths above the average baseline. Day-to-day heat-related mortality rates rose from less than 100 to almost 300 on the hottest days of 24 and 25 June.
This is shown in the graph below, which illustrates the cumulative total heat-related deaths seen in France over the two-and-a-half week period. The inset shows how heat-related deaths fluctuated on a day-to-day basis during this time.
Recent analysis by World Weather Attribution has already shown that human-caused climate change increased the frequency and intensity of the June heat wave across Europe.
Meanwhile, previous research has shown there is substantial evidence that heat-related mortality in Europe has already been elevated by greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result, we can be confident that at least some of the more than 2,700 deaths already seen in France are directly due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Calculating climate risk
In April, the UN-led body responsible for coordinating the work of climate modelling centres – the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP) – unveiled a set of seven new emissions scenarios.
These are designed to replace the previous scenarios that have been used by scientists to understand how the climate might change in the future. They will feed into the upcoming seven assessment report (AR7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The range of future emissions in the new CMIP scenarios is smaller, with scenarios of very high or very low emissions no longer on the table.
The retirement of the very-high emissions scenario – known as “RCP8.5” – led to certain commentators in the media and in politics, including US president Donald Trump, arguing that the risks of climate change had been “overstated”.
[For more on false and misleading claims around the new emissions scenarios, see Carbon Brief’s factcheck.]
Our analysis of June’s heat-related deaths in France suggests that, even if the most severe emissions pathways are no longer needed, climate impacts are taking a heavy toll on society.
Moreover, the temperatures seen in France show that climate models continue to underpredict the magnitude of heatwaves for a particular level of global warming.
This is because greenhouse gas emissions are only a first step in estimating the impacts of climate change.
The second step is converting emissions to changes in the climate at both the global and local levels – or hazards. This includes heatwaves, flash floods and droughts.
The third step is to determine how changes in the hazards will affect local populations. This can be determined by calculating people’s exposure and vulnerability to hazards.
Substantial uncertainty persists at every stage of this sequence.
For example, scientists do not know exactly how the global climate will react to ever-rising greenhouse gas emissions – nor the extent to which global temperature increases will drive local climate hazards. We also do not know how climate change at a local level impacts human health outcomes.
Managing the future of heat risk
Almost all heat-related deaths are preventable.
Adaptation options, such as air conditioning, heat action plans and social support for isolated people, will be crucial as the climate moves away from the typical conditions that people are used to.
Our previous research showed that France made a lot of progress reducing heat-related mortality after the deadly 2003 summer heatwave by taking many of these actions.
Adaptation can reduce deaths, but it cannot eliminate the risk created by continued warming.
Without a move away from fossil fuels, future heatwaves will keep testing the limits of public health systems and more people will die.
The post Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: France’s June heatwave caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths
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