Global power-sector emissions hit an “all-time high” in 2024, despite solar and wind power continuing to grow at record speed, according to analysis from thinktank Ember.
Emissions from the sector increased by 1.6% year-on-year, to reach a record high of 14.6bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO2).
This increase was predominantly due to a 4% growth in electricity demand worldwide, leading coal generation to increase by 1.4% and gas by 1.6%.
Embers’ analysis finds that the increase in fossil-fuel generation was, in particular, due to hotter temperatures in 2024, which drove up electricity demand in key regions such as India.
Clean electricity generation grew by a record 927 terawatt house (TWh), which would have been sufficient to cover 96% of electricity demand growth not caused by higher temperatures.
Despite the increase in emissions in the short-term, this “should not be mistaken for failure of the energy transition”, notes Ember, but a sign we’re nearing a “tipping point” wherein changes in weather and demand hold a particularly strong sway.
Clean-power growth
Low-carbon energy sources – renewables and nuclear – provided 40.9% of the world’s electricity in 2024, according to Ember.
This is the first time they have passed the 40% mark since the 1940s, when hydropower contributed around that percentage and coal made up 55%.
Renewable power sources collectively added a record 858TWh of generation last year – a 49% increase on the previous record set in 2022 of 577TWh.
Solar dominated electricity generation growth for the third year in a row in 2024, adding 474TWh of generation, as shown on the chart below. This was up 29% on 2023.
This allowed solar, which hit a total global capacity of 2,131TWh, to meet 40% of global electricity demand growth in 2024 alone.
Solar generation “avoided” an estimated 1,658MtCO2 in 2024 – equivalent to the power-sector emissions of the US, according to Ember.
The technology’s significant growth in 2024 – with more solar capacity installed last year than annual capacity installations of all fuels combined in any year before 2023 – continues a trend seen over recent years.
Across 99 countries, the electricity they produce from solar power has doubled in the past five years.
In 2024, non-OECD economies accounted for 58% of global solar generation, with China accounting for 39% alone. A decade ago the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries – a group founded in 1961 to stimulate economic growth and global trade – made up 81% of global solar generation.
This shift follows the cost of solar falling more than 90% between 2010 and 2023, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The low cost of the technology has been a key factor in deployment rising sharply worldwide.
It has also enabled new markets to emerge, with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan among the top importers of Chinese solar panels in 2024, according to a recent guest post on Carbon Brief.
In a statement, Phil MacDonald, Ember’s managing director said:
“Solar power has become the engine of the global energy transition. Paired with battery storage, solar is set to be an unstoppable force. As the fastest-growing and largest source of new electricity, it is critical in meeting the world’s ever-increasing demand for electricity.”
Wind generation also grew in 2024, although at a more moderate pace than solar power. Globally, an additional 182TW of wind capacity was added, or an increase of 7.9%.
Despite continued capacity additions, some geographies saw their lowest increase in wind generation in four years due to reduced wind speeds, notes Ember.
Hydro generation rebounded as drought conditions eased in 2023. This was particularly true in China, where capacity increased 130TWh, it adds.
Coal generation grew to 10,602TWh and gas generation to 6,788TWh, an increase of 149TWh and 104TWh, respectively.
However, due to the increases in renewable generation – despite coal and gas generation increasing in absolute terms – their share of generation has fallen.
Coal generation has dropped from 40.8% in 2007 to 34.4% in 2024, according to Ember. The share of gas generation has fallen for four consecutive years now since its peak in 2020 at 23.9%, with 22% of the world’s electricity generation from gas in 2024.
The increase in fossil-fuel generation was virtually identical in 2024 as it was in 2023, despite electricity demand growing (245TWh vs 246TWh, respectively).
Increased demand in short-term
Emissions in the power sector grew by 223mtCO2, despite the increase in renewables due to fossil fuels being relied on to meet increased demand, according to Ember.
Electricity demand increased by 4% over 2024 to meet 30,856TWh globally – crossing the 30,000TWh point for the first time ever. This is up from a 2.6% increase seen in 2023.
Fossil-fuel generation rose to meet the additional demand increase of 208TWh that was specifically driven by higher temperatures, according to Ember.
This dynamic was particularly pronounced in countries that experienced strong heatwaves.
For example, heatwaves in India led to the country experiencing its hottest day on record, with the western Rajasthan state’s Churu city hitting 50.5C on 28 May.
Coal-generation growth met 64% of India’s electricity demand growth in 2024, according to Ember, including that created by air conditioning.
However, this is still less than 91% of electricity demand growth in 2023, highlighting India’s continued transition away from coal, despite short-term trends.
On a global basis, if 2024 had the same temperatures as 2023, fossil generation would have increased by just 0.2%, Ember notes.
As it was, renewables met three-quarters of demand increases, with coal and gas meeting the majority of the rest.
Alongside heatwaves, emerging sectors such as data centres and electric vehicles (EVs), had a modest impact on increased electricity demand.
Demand from data centres and cryptocurrency mining increased by 20% in 2024, adding 0.4% to global electricity demand.
EV electricity demand increased by 38% in 2024, adding 0.2% to global electricity demand.
Despite increasing electricity demand, the growth of fossil fuels is still expected to be nearing the end.
According to Ember, assuming typical capacity factors, solar generation is expected to grow at an average rate of 21% per year between 2024 and 2030. Similarly, wind is expected to grow 13% per year.
Together with modest hydro and nuclear power growth, clean generation is expected to increase by an average of 9% per year to the end of the decade, adding 8,399TWh of annual generation by 2030.
This increase would be sufficient to keep pace with an increase in demand of 4.1% per year to 2030, exceeding the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) “stated policies scenario” scenario forecast of 3.3%, as shown in the chart below.
As such, over the next few years, while “changes in fossil generation in the short-term may be noisy, the direction and ultimate destination are unmistakable”, notes the Ember report, adding: “The global energy transition is no longer a question of if, but how fast.”
Many of the changes are expected to be partially determined by weather condition fluctuations from year to year.
Temperature effects impacted generation as well as demand. For example, if global weather conditions in 2024 had been in line with the five-year average, wind generation would have been 2TWh higher and hydro would have been 86TWh higher.
China and India
The world’s largest emerging economies are “on a path of clean electricity expansion that is set to reverse their power-sector fossil growth trends, tipping the global balance on fossil generation”, according to Ember.
China’s clean electricity additions met 81% of demand growth in 2024, due to record wind and solar capacity installations. This is the highest share since 2015 when the country saw its demand fall.
Its 623TWh increase in electricity demand was largely met by wind and solar, which collectively added 356TWh and a rebound in hydro generation which added 130TWh.
Fossil-fuel generation increased by 116TWh in 2024, a third of that seen in 2023, as shown in the chart below.
According to Ember, without the impact of hotter weather, clean generation would have met 97% of China’s rise in electricity demand in 2024.
The country’s renewables surge kept CO2 emissions below those for 2023 over the last 10 months of 2024, according to analysis for Carbon Brief.
Ember’s report suggests that India is likely to surpass China to become the country with the largest fossil-fuel generation growth in the coming years. Its fossil-fuel generation increase was the second-largest of any country in 2024 at 67TWh.
However, the cost of solar has fallen by 90% globally between 2010 and 2023. This has led to capacity increasing by 24 gigawatts of alternating current (GWac) in 2024 in India.
Currently, there are 143 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity under construction in the country, made up of 82GW of solar, 25GW of wind and 36GW of hybrid capacity.
Utility-scale projects already under construction as of January 2025 will nearly double India’s wind and solar capacity, notes Ember.
Elsewhere, wind and solar together generated 17% of the US’s electricity in 2024. The share of coal in the electricity mix fell below 15% – an all-time low – but gas generation rose, with the US accounting for more than half of the global gas generation increase in 2024.
Solar overtook coal generation in the EU for the first time in 2024 with the block seeing the largest fall in coal generation globally.
The post Power-sector CO2 hits ‘all-time high’ in 2024 despite record growth for clean energy appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Power-sector CO2 hits ‘all-time high’ in 2024 despite record growth for clean energy
Doubts over whether governments will maintain ambitious targets on boosting the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are a threat to the industry’s growth and play into the hands of fossil fuel companies, investors warned this week.
Several executives from airlines and oil firms have forecast recently that SAF requirements in the European Union, United Kingdom and elsewhere will be eased or scrapped altogether, potentially upending the aviation industry’s main policy to shrink air travel’s growing carbon footprint.
Such speculation poses a “fundamental threat” to the SAF industry, which mainly produces an alternative to traditional kerosene jet fuel using organic feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO), Thomas Engelmann, head of energy transition at German investment manager KGAL, told the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Investor conference in London.
He said fossil fuel firms would be the only winners from questions about compulsory SAF blending requirements.
The EU and the UK introduced the world’s first SAF mandates in January 2025, requiring fuel suppliers to blend at least 2% SAF with fossil fuel kerosene. The blending requirement will gradually increase to reach 32% in the EU and 22% in the UK by 2040.
Another case of diluted green rules?
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, CEO of French oil and gas company TotalEnergies Patrick Pouyanné said he would bet “that what happened to the car regulation will happen to the SAF regulation in Europe”.
The EU watered down green rules for car-makers in March 2025 after lobbying from car companies, Germany and Italy.
“You will see. Today all the airline companies are fighting [against the EU’s 2030 SAF target of 6%],” Pouyanne said, even though it’s “easy to reach to be honest”.
While most European airline lobbies publicly support the mandates, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary said last year that the SAF is “nonsense” and is “gradually dying a death, which is what it deserves to do”.
EU and UK stand by SAF targets
But the EU and the British government have disputed that. EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said in November that the EU’s targets are “stable”, warning that “investment decisions and construction must start by 2027, or we will miss the 2030 targets”.
UK aviation minister Keir Mather told this week’s investor event that meeting the country’s SAF blending requirement of 10% by 2030 was “ambitious but, with the right investment, the right innovation and the right outlook, it is absolutely within our reach”.
“We need to go further and we need to go faster,” Mather said.
SAF investors and developers said such certainty on SAF mandates from policymakers was key to drawing the necessary investment to ramp up production of the greener fuel, which needs to scale up in order to bring down high production costs. Currently, SAF is between two and seven times more expensive than traditional jet fuel.
Urbano Perez, global clean molecules lead at Spanish bank Santander, said banks will not invest if there is a perceived regulatory risk.
David Scott, chair of Australian SAF producer Jet Zero Australia, said developing SAF was already challenging due to the risks of “pretty new” technology requiring high capital expenditure.
“That’s a scary model with a volatile political environment, so mandate questioning creates this problem on steroids”, Scott said.
Others played down the risk. Glenn Morgan, partner at investment and advisory firm SkiesFifty, said “policy is always a risk”, adding that traditional oil-based jet fuel could also lose subsidies.
Asian countries join SAF mandate adopters
In Asia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Japan have recently adopted SAF mandates, and Matti Lievonen, CEO of Asia-based SAF producer EcoCeres, predicted that China, Indonesia and Hong Kong would follow suit.
David Fisken, investment director at the Australian Trade and Investment Commission, said the Australian government, which does not have a mandate, was watching to see how the EU and UK’s requirements played out.
The US does not have a SAF mandate and under President Donald Trump the government has slashed tax credits available for SAF producers from $1.75 a gallon to $1.
Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy?
SAF and energy security
SAF’s potential role in boosting energy security was a major theme of this week’s discussions as geopolitical tensions push the issue to the fore.
Marcella Franchi, chief commercial officer for SAF at France’s Haffner Energy, said the Canadian government, which has “very unsettling neighbours at the moment”, was looking to produce SAF to protect its energy security, especially as it has ample supplies of biomass to use as potential feedstock.
Similarly, German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall said last year it was working on plans that would enable European armed forces to produce their own synthetic, carbon-neutral fuel “locally and independently of global fossil fuel supply chain”.
Scott said Australia needs SAF to improve its fuel security, as it imports almost 99% of its liquid fuels.
He added that support for Australian SAF production is bipartisan, in part because it appeals to those more concerned about energy security than tackling climate change.
The post Doubts over European SAF rules threaten cleaner aviation hopes, investors warn appeared first on Climate Home News.
Doubts over European SAF rules threaten cleaner aviation hopes, investors warn
Climate Change
Southern Right Whales Are Having Fewer Calves; Scientists Say a Warming Ocean Is to Blame
After decades of recovery from commercial whaling, climate change is now threatening the whales’ future.
Southern right whales—once driven to near-extinction by industrial hunting in the 19th and 20th centuries—have long been regarded as a conservation success. After the International Whaling Commission banned commercial whaling in the 1980s, populations began a slow but steady rebound. New research, however, suggests climate change may be undermining that recovery.
Southern Right Whales Are Having Fewer Calves; Scientists Say a Warming Ocean Is to Blame
Climate Change
Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding
The Lincolnshire constituency held by Richard Tice, the climate-sceptic deputy leader of the hard-right Reform party, has been pledged at least £55m in government funding for flood defences since 2024.
This investment in Boston and Skegness is the second-largest sum for a single constituency from a £1.4bn flood-defence fund for England, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
Flooding is becoming more likely and more extreme in the UK due to climate change.
Yet, for years, governments have failed to spend enough on flood defences to protect people, properties and infrastructure.
The £1.4bn fund is part of the current Labour government’s wider pledge to invest a “record” £7.9bn over a decade on protecting hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses from flooding.
As MP for one of England’s most flood-prone regions, Tice has called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.
He is also one of Reform’s most vocal opponents of climate action and what he calls “net stupid zero”. He denies the scientific consensus on climate change and has claimed, falsely and without evidence, that scientists are “lying”.
Flood defences
Last year, the government said it would invest £2.65bn on flood and coastal erosion risk management (FCERM) schemes in England between April 2024 and March 2026.
This money was intended to protect 66,500 properties from flooding. It is part of a decade-long Labour government plan to spend more than £7.9bn on flood defences.
There has been a consistent shortfall in maintaining England’s flood defences, with the Environment Agency expecting to protect fewer properties by 2027 than it had initially planned.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has attributed this to rising costs, backlogs from previous governments and a lack of capacity. It also points to the strain from “more frequent and severe” weather events, such as storms in recent years that have been amplified by climate change.
However, the CCC also said last year that, if the 2024-26 spending programme is delivered, it would be “slightly closer to the track” of the Environment Agency targets out to 2027.
The government has released constituency-level data on which schemes in England it plans to fund, covering £1.4bn of the 2024-26 investment. The other half of the FCERM spending covers additional measures, from repairing existing defences to advising local authorities.
The map below shows the distribution of spending on FCERM schemes in England over the past two years, highlighting the constituency of Richard Tice.
By far the largest sum of money – £85.6m in total – has been committed to a tidal barrier and various other defences in the Somerset constituency of Bridgwater, the seat of Conservative MP Ashley Fox.
Over the first months of 2026, the south-west region has faced significant flooding and Fox has called for more support from the government, citing “climate patterns shifting and rainfall intensifying”.
He has also backed his party’s position that “the 2050 net-zero target is impossible” and called for more fossil-fuel extraction in the North Sea.
Tice’s east-coast constituency of Boston and Skegness, which is highly vulnerable to flooding from both rivers and the sea, is set to receive £55m. Among the supported projects are beach defences from Saltfleet to Gibraltar Point and upgrades to pumping stations.
Overall, Boston and Skegness has the second-largest portion of flood-defence funding, as the chart below shows. Constituencies with Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs occupied the other top positions.
Overall, despite Labour MPs occupying 347 out of England’s 543 constituencies – nearly two-thirds of the total – more than half of the flood-defence funding was distributed to constituencies with non-Labour MPs. This reflects the flood risk in coastal and rural areas that are not traditional Labour strongholds.
Reform funding
While Reform has just eight MPs, representing 1% of the population, its constituencies have been assigned 4% of the flood-defence funding for England.
Nearly all of this money was for Tice’s constituency, although party leader Nigel Farage’s coastal Clacton seat in Kent received £2m.
Reform UK is committed to “scrapping net-zero” and its leadership has expressed firmly climate-sceptic views.
Much has been made of the disconnect between the party’s climate policies and the threat climate change poses to its voters. Various analyses have shown the flood risk in Reform-dominated areas, particularly Lincolnshire.
Tice has rejected climate science, advocated for fossil-fuel production and criticised Environment Agency flood-defence activities. Yet, he has also called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.
This may reflect Tice’s broader approach to climate change. In a 2024 interview with LBC, he said:
“Where you’ve got concerns about sea level defences and sea level rise, guess what? A bit of steel, a bit of cement, some aggregate…and you build some concrete sea level defences. That’s how you deal with rising sea levels.”
While climate adaptation is viewed as vital in a warming world, there are limits on how much societies can adapt and adaptation costs will continue to increase as emissions rise.
The post Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding
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