Demand for battery-grade nickel is expected to surge, tripling by 2030, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. This growth will largely be due to mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.
A senior nickel analyst at Benchmark, Jorge Uzcategui, particularly noted that:
“China will see growth too, but it won’t match the pace in ex-China regions.”
Despite lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries dominating the Chinese market, nickel-based chemistries are set to hold a significant share globally. Their superior performance and limited LFP supply chains outside China support this trend.

EV Sales Stall, Nickel Demand Slows
Battery nickel demand has faced setbacks in 2024 due to slower-than-expected EV sales in Western markets. Inflation and high interest rates have made EVs less competitive compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
This slowdown has pushed automakers to delay or revise their EV targets in Europe and North America. It has also led to gigafactory project cancellations, reducing North America’s 2030 battery supply forecast by 3% and Europe’s by 10%, according to Benchmark’s data.
China, however, has seen record EV sales, with almost 1.2 million units sold in October alone. But most of these vehicles use LFP batteries, limiting the impact on nickel demand.
Additionally, battery producers are leaning toward mid-nickel NCM chemistries. These offer better thermal stability and reduce the risk of overheating, making them more attractive amid low cobalt and manganese prices.
Nickel Poised for a Comeback
Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook for battery nickel remains strong. Although weak demand and expanded supply have pulled nickel prices to their lowest levels since 2020, demand for battery-grade nickel is projected to grow 27% year-on-year in 2024.

Looking ahead, nickel-based chemistries are expected to dominate, capturing 85% of battery cell production capacity outside China by 2030. High-nickel chemistries will play a growing role as EV technology advances.
- Benchmark forecasts that over 50% of nickel demand growth by 2030 will come from batteries. By the end of the decade, battery nickel demand could hit 1.5 million tonnes annually.
Price Rollercoaster: Will Oversupply Keep Nickel Down?
With the projected growing demand for nickel, how about the metal’s prices?
In the third quarter of 2024, nickel prices started on a downward trend. After reaching a high of $21,615 per metric ton in May, the price fell to $17,357 by July 1. In August, nickel prices hovered between $16,150 and $16,500 before climbing to $17,136 on August 27.
However, in early September, prices dropped again, reaching a low of $15,741 on September 10. This was close to the year’s lowest price of $15,668, recorded in February. Despite this, prices surged in late September, peaking at $17,698 on October 1.

Oversupply from Indonesia
The main issue for nickel prices has been oversupply, especially from Indonesia. The country increased its mined nickel production by 99,000 metric tons in Q3. By the end of 2024, Indonesia is expected to increase production to 2.4 million metric tons, making up 57% of global output.

Indonesia has capitalized on its 2020 nickel ore export ban, drawing billions in foreign investment for its mining and EV supply chains. This strategic move has bolstered Indonesia’s dominance in the nickel market.
According to Adrian Gardner, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, Indonesia is set to account for 60-65% of global nickel mine production, solidifying its role as a key player in the industry. Gardner further noted that:
“We have seen on several occasions that, when Indonesia stopped or restarted ore exports and threatened to stop nickel pig iron and intermediate product exports, there was a reaction in nickel prices. The government sets the rules, and the rules are the tools.”
S&P Global Market Intelligence reveals a dramatic surge in Indonesia’s nickel ore imports from the Philippines. From January to August 2024, imports skyrocketed to 5.3 million metric tons, a massive leap from just 53,904 metric tons during the same period in 2023.
Although Indonesia dominates production, its quota system has made it difficult for Chinese smelters to secure a steady supply. This forced them to cut output temporarily. To keep up, Indonesian refiners turned to imports from the Philippines, the world’s second-largest nickel producer.
Despite relying heavily on China’s investment, Indonesia is looking to diversify its partnerships, particularly with Western countries. However, a new trade deal with China includes a $1.42 billion agreement between China’s GEM and Indonesia’s PT Vale to build a plant for processing battery-grade nickel.
Another major project involves China’s Huayou Cobalt, Ford, and PT Vale. They plan to invest $2.7 billion in a facility that will produce nickel for EV batteries.
More recently, China launched a $1.4 trillion debt swap to address its financial challenges and promote economic growth. It also plans to lower the deed tax for homebuyers to further stimulate the economy.
Challenges and Opportunities in Western Markets
In Canada, the government has committed C$46 billion to develop four EV battery plants. However, industry experts say this will require more raw materials than Canada can currently produce. The country may need up to 15 new mines to meet demand.
Europe faces its own challenges with the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which taxes carbon-intensive imports. Some in the steel industry argue that CBAM won’t benefit them, as it only considers direct emissions.
Meanwhile, European steelmakers are increasing their reliance on nickel pig iron imports from Indonesia. This trend has led to production cuts in Europe as they struggle to compete with cheaper imports.
What’s Next for Nickel Prices and Demand?
China will continue to play a major role in the nickel market, both in supply and demand. Although China’s EV sector grew 32% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, it hasn’t been enough to offset weak demand in other sectors.
Nickel prices are expected to face continued pressure in the coming years due to a surplus. With a 5.8% annual growth rate in supply projected through 2028, producers may struggle to restart operations as prices remain flat.
Investors should closely watch developments in China and Western markets, as they will heavily influence nickel’s future. While short-term hurdles exist, battery nickel demand is poised for long-term growth. As EV adoption rises globally, nickel’s role in the energy transition will only strengthen.
Disclosure: Owners, members, directors, and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option positions in any of the companies mentioned: AEMC.
Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.
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The post Nickel Demand to Triple by 2030: Can the Market Keep Up? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Finding Nature Based Solutions in Your Supply Chain
Carbon Footprint
How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living
Americans are paying more for insurance, electricity, taxes, and home repairs every year. What many people may not realize is that climate change is already one of the drivers behind those rising costs.
For many households, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue. It is becoming a cost-of-living issue. While climate impacts like melting glaciers and shrinking polar ice can feel distant from everyday life, the financial effects are already showing up in monthly budgets across the country.
Today, a larger share of household income is consumed by fixed costs such as housing, insurance, utilities, and healthcare. (3) Climate change and climate inaction are adding pressure to many of those expenses through higher disaster recovery costs, rising energy demand, infrastructure repairs, and increased insurance risk.
The goal of this article is to help connect climate change to the everyday financial realities people already experience. Regardless of where someone stands on climate policy, it is important to recognize that climate change is already increasing costs for households, businesses, and taxpayers across the United States.
More conservative estimates indicate that the average household has experienced an increase of about $400 per year from observed climate change, while less conservative estimates suggest an increase of $900.(1) Those in more disaster-prone regions of the country face disproportionate costs, with some households experiencing climate-related costs averaging $1,300 per year.(1) Another study found that climate adaptation costs driven by climate change have already consumed over 3% of personal income in the U.S. since 2015.(9) By the end of the century, housing units could spend an additional $5,600 on adaptation costs.(1)
Whether we realize it or not, Americans are already paying for climate change through higher insurance premiums, energy costs, taxes, and infrastructure repairs. These growing expenses are often referred to as climate adaptation costs.
Without meaningful climate action, these costs are expected to continue rising. Choosing not to invest in climate action is also choosing to spend more on climate adaptation.
Here are a few ways climate change is already increasing the cost of living:
- Higher insurance costs from more frequent and severe storms
- Higher energy use during longer and hotter summers
- Higher electricity rates tied to storm recovery and grid upgrades
- Higher government spending and taxpayer-funded disaster recovery costs
The real debate is not whether climate change costs money. Americans are already paying for it. The question is where we want those costs to go. Should we invest more in climate action to help reduce future climate adaptation costs, or continue paying growing recovery and adaptation expenses in everyday life?
How Climate Change Is Increasing Insurance Costs
There is one industry that closely tracks the financial impact of natural disasters: insurance. Insurance companies are focused on assessing risk, estimating damages, and collecting enough revenue to cover losses and remain financially stable.
Comparing the 20-year periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, climate-related disasters increased 83% globally from 3,656 events to 6,681 events. The average time between billion-dollar disasters dropped from 82 days during the 1980s to 16 days during the last 10 years, and in 2025 the average time between disasters fell to just 10 days. (6)
According to the reinsurance firm Munich Re, total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average. Average annual inflation-adjusted costs more than quadrupled from $22.6 billion per year in the 1980s to $102 billion per year in the 2010s. Costs increased further to an average of $153.2 billion annually during 2020–2024, representing another 50% increase over the 2010s. (6)
In the United States, billion-dollar weather and climate disasters have also increased significantly. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from roughly three annually during the 1980s to 19 annually over the last decade. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. recorded 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters respectively, both setting new records. (6)
The growing impact of climate change is one reason insurance costs continue to rise. “There are two things that drive insurance loss costs, which is the frequency of events and how much they cost,” said Robert Passmore, assistant vice president of personal lines at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “So, as these events become more frequent, that’s definitely going to have an impact.” (8)
After adjusting for inflation, insurance costs have steadily increased over time. From 2000 to 2020, insurance costs consistently grew faster than the Consumer Price Index due to rising rebuilding costs and weather-related losses.(3) Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the average home insurance premium increased from $75 to $360 due to climate change impacts, with disaster-prone regions experiencing especially steep increases.(1) Since 2015, homeowners in some regions affected by more extreme weather have seen home insurance costs increased by nearly 57%.(1) Some insurers have also limited or stopped offering coverage in high-risk areas.(7)
For many families, rising insurance costs are no longer occasional financial burdens. They are becoming recurring monthly expenses tied directly to growing climate risk.
How Rising Temperatures Increase Household Energy Costs

The financial impacts of climate change extend beyond insurance. Rising temperatures are also changing how much energy Americans use and how utilities plan for future electricity demand.
Between 1950 and 2010, per capita electricity use increased 10-fold, though usage has flattened or slightly declined since 2012 due to more efficient appliances and LED lighting. (3) A significant share of increased energy demand comes from cooling needs associated with higher temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the United States has experienced increasing Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreasing Heating Degree Days (HDD). Nearly all counties have become warmer over the past three decades, with some areas experiencing several hundred additional cooling degree days, equivalent to roughly one additional degree of warmth on most days. (1) This trend reflects a warming climate where air conditioning demand is increasing while heating demand generally declines. (4)
As temperatures continue rising, households are expected to spend more on cooling than they save on heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2050, national Heating Degree Days will be 11% lower while Cooling Degree Days will be 28% higher than 2021 levels. Cooling demand is projected to rise 2.5 times faster than heating demand declines. (5)
These projections come from energy and infrastructure experts planning for future electricity demand and grid capacity needs. Utilities and grid operators are already preparing for higher peak summer electricity loads caused by rising temperatures. (5)
Longer and hotter summers also affect how homes and buildings are designed. Buildings constructed for past climate conditions may require upgrades such as larger air conditioning systems, stronger insulation, and improved ventilation to remain comfortable and energy efficient in the future. (10)
For many households, this means higher monthly utility bills and potentially higher long-term home improvement costs as temperatures continue to rise.
How Climate Change Affects Electricity Rates
On an inflation-adjusted basis, average U.S. residential electricity rates are slightly lower today than they were 50 years ago. (2) However, climate-related damage to utility infrastructure is creating new upward pressure on electricity costs.
Electric utilities rely heavily on above-ground poles, wires, transformers, and substations that can be damaged by hurricanes, storms, floods, and wildfires. Repairing and upgrading this infrastructure often requires substantial investment.
As a result, utilities are increasing electricity rates in response to wildfire and hurricane events to fund infrastructure repairs and future mitigation efforts. (1) The average cumulative increase in per-household electricity expenditures due to climate-related price changes is approximately $30. (1)
While this increase may appear modest today, utility costs are expected to rise further as climate-related infrastructure damage becomes more frequent and severe.
How Climate Disasters Increase Government Spending and Taxes
Extreme weather events also damage public infrastructure, including roads, schools, bridges, airports, water systems, and emergency services infrastructure. Recovery and rebuilding costs are often funded through taxpayer dollars at the federal, state, and local levels.
The average annual government cost tied to climate-related disaster recovery is estimated at nearly $142 per household. (1) States that frequently experience hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or flooding can face even higher public recovery costs.
These expenses affect taxpayers whether they personally experience a disaster or not. Climate-related recovery spending can increase pressure on public budgets, emergency management systems, and infrastructure funding nationwide.
Reducing Climate Costs Through Climate Action
While this article focuses on the growing financial costs associated with climate change, the issue is not only about money for many people. It is also about recognizing our environmental impact and taking responsibility for reducing it in order to help preserve a healthy planet for future generations.
While individuals alone cannot solve climate change, collective action can help reduce future climate adaptation costs over time.
For those interested in taking action, there are three important steps:
- Estimate your carbon footprint to better understand the emissions connected to your lifestyle and activities.
- Create a plan to gradually reduce emissions through energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and more sustainable choices.
- Address remaining emissions by supporting verified carbon reduction projects through carbon credits.
Carbon credits are one of the most cost-effective tools available for climate action because they help fund projects that generate verified emission reductions at scale. Supporting global emission reduction efforts can help reduce the long-term impacts and costs associated with climate change.
Visit Terrapass to learn more about carbon footprints, carbon credits, and climate action solutions.
The post How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living appeared first on Terrapass.
Carbon Footprint
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