A record 512bn of work hours were lost around the world in 2023 because of the risk of heat exposure, says a new report from the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change.
Agricultural workers in low-income countries were disproportionately affected, the authors say, costing countries around 8% of their GDP in 2023.
The findings are part of the ninth iteration of the annual report, which features indicators of climate change and human health, such as heat mortality, air pollution exposure and how countries are adapting.
The report highlights the many health inequalities in how energy is used around the world. According to the report, the number of deaths caused by fossil fuel-derived air pollution decreased by 7% over 2016-21 – mainly due to wealthy nations phasing out coal.
However, the vast majority of low-income countries still rely heavily on biomass and other “dirty” fuels in their homes. Dr Marina Romanello, lead author and executive director of the Lancel Countdown, added that women and children are usually in charge of sourcing and burning the fuel, making them particularly vulnerable.
The authors also call out governments and fossil fuel companies for “fuelling the fire” through continuing investment into oil and gas assets that are likely to push the world past key warming targets. The study notes that fossil fuel subsidies exceeded national health spending in 2022 for more than 20 countries around the world.
Romanello told journalists her “concern” that governments and companies “keep on promoting fossil fuel expansion, to the detriment of health and survival of people worldwide”.
Extreme heat
The impacts of extreme heat are “insidious”, Prof Ollie Jay, director of the Heat and Health Research Centre at the University of Sydney and author on the report, told a press briefing.
He explained that certain groups of people are more vulnerable to heat – including infants, the elderly, pregnant women and people with pre-existing medical conditions.
In 2023, infants and adults older than 65 faced a new record high of 14 days of heatwaves per person, the report finds. This value exceeds the previous record, set in 2022, by more than 20%.
The combination of a warming and ageing world is putting more people at risk, the report says. For example, in 2023, demographic changes alone would have driven a 65% increase in heat-related deaths among over-65s, compared to the 1990-99 average. The addition of global warming pushes this percentage up to 167% – the highest highest level recorded.
Across the whole population, the authors find that people were exposed to an average of 50 more “health-threatening heat days” in 2023 than they would have been in a world without climate change. (These are defined as days when the daily average temperature exceeds the 84.5th percentile of the 1986-2005 daily regional average.)
Beyond this global average figure, less-developed countries are much more likely to see such health-threatening days. For example, 31 such countries experienced at least 100 more days of health-threatening heat due to climate change.
The map below shows the average number of days with health-threatening temperatures attributable to climate change per year, over 2019-23, by country. Darker colours mean more health-threatening days.
Heat stress is particularly dangerous for outdoors workers, who are often directly exposed to the heat while undertaking manual labour. In 2023, around one-quarter of the world’s population worked outdoors.
The report finds that countries with the lowest human development index (HDI) – a measure of a country’s development – have the highest proportion of outdoors workers, largely due to their reliance on the agricultural sector.
The report measures the number of “potential work hours lost” due to heat exposure, by considering temperature, humidity and “typical metabolic rate of workers in specific economic sectors”.
It finds that heat exposure drove a record high of 512bn potential work hours lost in 2023 – around 1.5 times the 1990-99 average. Approximately two-thirds of this loss was in the agricultural sector, mainly in low and medium HDI countries. In total, the global potential loss of income due to extreme heat reached a record high of $835bn in 2023, the report says.
Wealthy countries were generally the least impacted by heat stress. Very high HDI countries only saw around 41 lost hours per worker due to heat, causing an economic loss of around 1% of their GDP. Meanwhile, low HDI countries lost more than 200 hours per worker, and saw almost an 8% loss in their GDP.
The graph below shows percentage GDP loss due to heat stress in low, medium, high and very high HDI countries, in agriculture (light green), construction (dark green), manufacturing (orange) and services (purple).
This year’s report also introduces a new indicator assessing how night-time heat affects sleep loss. The authors estimate that high night-time temperatures led to 5% more sleep hours lost in 2019-23 than in 1986-2005.
The authors say that air conditioning is an “effective technology for reducing heat exposure”. However, they say that it can also be an example of “maladaptation”, as it is “expensive and energy-intensive, overwhelms energy grids on hot days, and can contribute to greenhouse gas emissions”.
They note that emissions from air conditioning increased by 8% over 2016-21. However, access to the technology is not universal. In 2021, 48% of households in very high HDI countries had air conditioning compared to only 5% of those in low HDI countries.
Malnutrition and disease
The report also unpacks how climate change is exacerbating food insecurity and malnutrition.
It finds that the total proportion of global land area affected by extreme drought for at least one month per year increased from 15% in 1951-60 to 44% in 2013-24.
The authors warn that “the higher frequency of heatwave days and drought months in 2022, compared with 1981-2010, was associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity across 124 countries”.
This year, the authors also introduced a new indicator tracking changes in rainfall events. The authors divide up the world into 80km grid squares and monitor the number of rainfall events that exceed the 99th percentile of 1961-90 rainfall.
Over the last decade, extreme rainfall events increased in more than 61% of grid squares, the report finds. The authors warn that high rainfall can drive an increase in flooding, which can lead to a range of negative health incomes including outbreaks of certain diseases.
For example, Vibrio bacteria in coastal waters can cause “severe” gastrointestinal infections and “life-threatening sepsis”. The study finds that the length of coastlines with suitable conditions for the bacteria reached a new record high of more than 88,000km in 2023 – 32% above the 1990-99 average.
In addition, the total population living within 100km of coastal waters with conditions suitable for Vibrio transmission has reached a record high of 1.42 billion.
The authors also find that the climatic conditions for mosquitoes to transmit dengue, malaria and West Nile virus have increased between 1951-60 and 2014-23 as the world has warmed.
Fossil fuels
On energy use, the study notes that, “given the high greenhouse gas and air pollution emission intensity of coal, its phase-out is crucial to protect people’s health”.
Over 2016-21, very high HDI countries have seen a reduction in the share of energy that comes from coal. (The UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power in September 2024.)
However, the report highlights that all low HDI countries are still very dependent on coal. Over 2016-21, the share of electricity that comes from coal in low HDI countries increased from less than 1% to 10%.
According to the report, the number of deaths caused by fossil fuel-derived air pollution – specifically, tiny particulate matter known as PM2.5 – decreased by 156,000 over 2016-21 – a drop of 7%. This is mainly due to reduced pollution from coal burning in high and very high HDI countries.
Dr Marina Romanello, the lead author of the report and executive director of the Lancet Countdown, told the press briefing that this an important result as it shows the “enormous potential of coal phase-out to improve health”.
However, the report also warns that biomass burning caused 1.24 million deaths in 2021 – an increase of 135,000 from 2016 levels.
For example, the report finds that 2.3bn people still cook using biomass. In low HDI countries, around 92% of countries use solid biomass for their household energy needs. Conversely, in very high HDI countries, this number is around 10%.
Romanello explained that biomass is “very unreliable, very unstable and particularly polluting”. She added:
“When households rely on biomass, it is often women and children that are in charge of sourcing the fuel, so it also generates disproportionate impacts on these groups.”
The authors also call out fossil fuel companies for “fuelling the fire”. One of the report’s indicators assesses the compatibility of fossil fuel company strategies with the Paris Agreement. It says:
“As of March 2024, the strategies of the 114 largest oil and gas companies have put them on track to exceed their share of greenhouse gas emissions consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5C by 189% in 2040, up from the 173% excess projected in March, 2023.”
The report analyses 86 countries that are collectively responsible for 93% of global CO2 emissions. They find that, in 2022, these countries awarded a record $1.2tn in fossil fuel subsidies. This funding exceeded 10% of national health spending in 47 countries and 100% in 23 countries.
Romanello shared her “concern” with the press briefing that “governments and companies keep fuelling the fire, keep on promoting fossil fuel expansion, to the detriment of health and survival of people worldwide”.
Adaptation
Finally, the report assesses countries’ preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. This section presents a mixed picture.
The report finds that, as of February 2024, fewer than half of the most recent country climate pledges made under the Paris Agreement mentioned a “health keyword”.
However, the report also finds areas of progress. For example, at the end of 2022, only four countries had put forward health national adaptation plans (HNAPs) outlining how they will plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. Just one year later, this number had jumped up to 40 countries.
Furthermore, the authors find that scientific engagement into the links between climate change and health is increasing. The number of scientific papers investigating the link between climate change and health reached a record high in 2023, with the vast majority of papers focusing on impacts, rather than mitigation or adaptation.
The graph below shows the number of academic papers published each year over 1990-2023 on climate change and health, focused on mitigation (orange), adaptation (green) and impacts (purple).
The report finds that some countries are already implementing successful adaptation measures. For example, it explains that countries with health early warning systems saw a 73% decrease in the number of people killed per extreme weather event between 2000-09 and 2014-23. In countries without such early warning systems, the decrease was only 21%.
The authors note that “the reduction cannot be directly attributed to the implementation of health early warning systems”, but suggest that countries that implement these systems likely have higher “engagement with climate change adaptation efforts”.
The positive news in this report is “not enough to tip the balance” or to “secure a healthy future”, Romanello told the press briefing. However, she said it is “meaningful progress” which can be “built on”.
Dr Jeremy Farrar served as chief scientist of the World Health Organisation, and was previously the director of the Wellcome Trust – the main funding body behind this report. He told journalists at the press briefing that despite the “incredible evidence base” available, the health community “have been too slow to make the case that climate change is a health crisis”.
However, he praised the intersectoral collaboration between health and climate experts, and said he hopes we are “turning a corner” on making sure that climate change is seen as a “health issue”.
The post More than half a trillion hours of work lost in 2023 due to ‘heat exposure’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
More than half a trillion hours of work lost in 2023 due to ‘heat exposure’
Climate Change
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Blazing heat hits Europe
FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.
HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.
UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.
Around the world
- GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
- ‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
- EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
- SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
- PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.
15
The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
- A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
- A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Factchecking Trump’s climate report
A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80
Spotlight
Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.
On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.
In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.
(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)
In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.
Forward-thinking on environment
As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.
He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.
This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.
New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.
It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.
Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.
“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.
Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.
What about climate and energy?
However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.
“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.
The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.
For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.
Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.
Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.
By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.
There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:
“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.
NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.
‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.
Coming up
- 17 August: Bolivian general elections
- 18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
- 18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
- 21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama
Pick of the jobs
- Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
- EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Climate Change
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.
Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.
The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.
The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.
It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.
Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.
Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.
Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.
The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)
The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.
In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.
Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.
The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/
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