Mexican citizens will go to the polls on 2 June 2024 to elect a new president, a new legislature and thousands of other local government officials.
Three candidates – two of whom are women – are contending to succeed the current leftwing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. This could be the first time a woman is elected as president of Mexico.
In Mexico, presidential candidates can be put forward by a coalition of different political parties that share common goals and agendas.
Leading candidate in the polls Dr Claudia Sheinbaum represents a leftwing coalition, which includes Obrador’s ruling party, the National Regeneration Movement (Morena).
Xóchitl Gálvez represents several right and centre-left opposition parties, including the National Action Party. Jorge Álvarez Máynez is the centre-left party Citizen’s Movement candidate.
Mexico – a country with more than 126 million inhabitants and considered the second largest economy in Latin America, after Brazil – had the world’s 11th largest greenhouse gas emissions in 2018. (See Carbon Brief’s Mexico profile for more.)
Within the G20, Mexico is the only member that has not set a net-zero target. The country still strongly depends on oil, gas and coal. It faces several challenges in decarbonising its economy, implementing its national climate law and protecting its biodiversity through, for example, conserving its biodiversity agency.
In the interactive grid below, Carbon Brief compares the three presidential candidates’ proposals on energy, climate and biodiversity, based on manifestos, official webpages and other key official documents.
Each entry in the grid represents a direct quote from one or more of these documents.
Where does the country stand?
In its updated pledge to the UN about its climate actions and ambitions – its nationally determined contribution – Mexico says it contributes 1.3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The country aims to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 35% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2030, rising to 40% with international financial support.
The document says that emissions in 2020, not including land-based removals, stood at 804m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), with this rising to 991MtCO2e under the no-mitigation baseline.
This means hitting the lower target would entail cutting emissions to 25% below 2020 levels and the conditional goal a 35% reduction from the same starting point.
Its 2030 baseline is 991MtCOe with no mitigation efforts by the same year – reaching up to 40% of emissions reductions with international financial support.
Fossil fuels account for 86% of the total energy supply, while renewables make up only 8%.
In 2022, research and NGO partnership Climate Transparency concluded that Mexico “needs to adopt policies to phase out the use of fossil fuels [for example] coal and heavy oil while also reducing the social inequality gap”.
Sandra Guzmán is general director at the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC) and member of México resiliente – a group of civil-society organisations that sent the presidential candidates a proposed climate plan for the country.
This election is particularly important because of the need to rapidly cut global emissions this decade, she tells Carbon Brief. Guzmán adds:
“This is the most important six-year period to achieve climate goals. If someone with no interest in climate change comes to power, we would disdain and discard any commitment that Mexico has made and we will hardly be able to get on the path to compliance.”
What are the proposals?
Dr Claudia Sheinbaum is the candidate of the “let’s keep making history” coalition, made up of the ruling leftwing party, the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the Labour party and the Green party. She holds a PhD in energy engineering and was head of the government of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023.
Sheinbaum’s roadmap for 2024-2030 aims to “decarbonise the energy matrix as quickly as possible”. However, the 381-page document says her administration would be “in line” with Obrador’s energy policy, which is based on energy self-sufficiency through the strengthening of the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), and the rehabilitation and acquisition of refineries. As well as the roadmap, the coalition’s manifesto does not mention any reference to net-zero.
Additionally, she has recently unveiled a plan to invest more than $13bn in new energy generation projects through 2030, according to Reuters. This would include increasing wind and solar power generation, as well as modernising five hydroelectric plants.
During the second presidential debate aired on Sunday 28 April, Sheinbaum restated her proposal to boost renewable energy sources. This includes domestic solar panels as well as growing electric transportation, while relying on gas and more combined-cycle plants for the energy transition.
The “let’s keep making history” candidate currently holds a substantial lead in the polls, but it is less clear whether her coalition will achieve the two-thirds majority in the legislature that it would need to enact its desired constitutional reforms.
Xóchitl Gálvez is the coalition candidate of several right and centre-left opposition parties, including the National Action Party, Institutional Revolutionary Party and Party of the Democratic Revolution. She is a computer engineer, an entrepreneur, a former mayor of Miguel Hidalgo borough in Mexico City from 2015 to 2018 and a former senator from 2018 to 2023.
Her coalition’s manifesto outlines a decarbonisation plan and pledges resources to encourage local and national energy transition plans. One of her most prominent energy proposals, outlined on her official webpage, is for the country to reach “net-zero carbon emissions” by 2050.
In the television debate, Galvez reaffirmed her commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, making Pemex’s business model more efficient and promoting clean energy rounds and electricity auctions. In a new proposal, she suggested that 50% of energy should come from renewable sources by 2030.
Jorge Álvarez Máynez is the candidate of the centre-left party Citizen’s Movement. He was deputy of Mexico’s congress for 2015-2018 and 2021-2024.
The party’s political platform seeks to establish a deadline for phasing out the use of fossil fuels. His party says it is committed to energy transition and recognises that this will involve replacing fossil fuel revenues, suggesting revenues from lithium, wind and hydropower production will make up the shortfall. While the manifesto pledges more ambitious emissions-cutting targets, it does not mention net-zero.
During the debate, Máynez reiterated some of the proposals outlined in his manifesto. This included the importance of transitioning to clean energy sources, such as solar and wind power, changing an oil tax into a green tax for electromobility and public transport, and closing a refinery and thermoelectric plant. He said his administration would install solar panels in all schools and hospitals, and boost sustainable development in the country’s south.
Missing issues
The second presidential debate in Mexico was the first ever to include climate change and sustainable development as one of its thematic areas. The three candidates discussed their proposals on mitigation and energy transition, while adaptation was little mentioned.
Mexico is currently grappling with water scarcity and drought. From October last year to April this year, the country’s 210 dams recorded storage figures below historical averages, according to Mexico’s national water commission. It adds that almost 80% of the country is currently going through some level of drought, with the northwest and center regions having it the worst. All candidates recognised both problems in the debate.
Sheinbaum said she would implement a national water plan focused on modernising agricultural irrigation, and recycling and boosting new water sources, such as seawater desalination. She also would maintain the agroecology program Sembrando Vida, questioned by experts for its impacts on deforestation and communities, and for not having environmental indicators in Central America.
Gálvez proposed creating a tri-national agency between Mexico, the US and Canada to tackle forest fires. On water, she said her government would give financial resources to the national water commission and treat 100% of wastewater by 2040.
Máynez plans to double the budget for water infrastructure, including dams, aqueducts and leak repairs. He proposes new conditions for companies setting up in the country, as most water is currently concessioned to large companies.
Guzmán tells Carbon Brief that, when it comes to climate policies, the biggest gaps in the candidates’ proposals are on adaptation and finance. She criticises candidates for not seeing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and for not earmarking funds or tax reforms to address the matter.
Biodiversity, loss and damage and the Escazú agreement – an agreement ratified by 16 countries from Latin America and the Caribbean to protect environmental defenders – are also absent, according to Anaid Velasco, GFLAC Mexico country director and member of México resiliente.
She tells Carbon Brief that biodiversity is “crucial”, since the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework mandates countries to submit their national biodiversity strategies (NBSAPs) this year. Mexico “should be working on it”, she says.
The post Mexico election 2024: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Mexico election 2024: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change
Climate Change
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Blazing heat hits Europe
FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.
HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.
UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.
Around the world
- GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
- ‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
- EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
- SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
- PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.
15
The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
- A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
- A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Factchecking Trump’s climate report
A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80
Spotlight
Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.
On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.
In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.
(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)
In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.
Forward-thinking on environment
As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.
He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.
This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.
New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.
It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.
Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.
“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.
Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.
What about climate and energy?
However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.
“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.
The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.
For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.
Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.
Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.
By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.
There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:
“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.
NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.
‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.
Coming up
- 17 August: Bolivian general elections
- 18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
- 18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
- 21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama
Pick of the jobs
- Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
- EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Climate Change
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.
Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.
The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.
The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.
It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.
Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.
Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.
Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.
The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)
The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.
In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.
Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.
The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/
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