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Loss of labour caused by heat stress wiped out the equivalent of 4% of Africa’s GDP in 2022, warns a new report from the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change.

The eighth iteration of the annual report features 47 different indicators of climate change and human health, such as heat mortality, food insecurity and air pollution exposure. For the first time, the report includes a dedicated section on regional trends, highlighting the inequalities between developed and less developed regions.

On extreme heat, for example, it finds that in small island developing states, 103 days of health-threatening temperatures every year are attributable to climate change over 2018-22. Across Europe, North America and Oceania, this number is less than 30.

This is also the first Lancet Countdown report to include projections on how the indicators might worsen in a warmer world. Under a 2C warming scenario, for example, 525 million additional people will experience food insecurity by 2041-60, compared with the 1995-2014 baseline.

Many indicators suggest that the world is “accelerating in the wrong direction”, the report warns. It finds that the strategies of the world’s 20 largest oil and gas companies would result in emissions surpassing levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C by 173% in 2040.

However, the lead author of the report told a press briefing there is also reason for “hope”. The number of people who died due to fine particulate air pollution decreased from 1.4 million in 2005 to 1.2 million in 2020, for example. And scientific research and media engagement with health and climate change have both continued to grow, the report says.

Heat stress

In a “major addition”, the report presents attribution analyses of key indicators, to quantify the influence of climate change on them for the first time.

Over 2018-22, the average person experienced 86 days of “health-threatening high temperatures” per year, according to the report. Around 60% of these temperatures were made more than twice as likely due to climate change, it says.

Heat-related deaths often follow exposure to extreme heat – and people under the age of one or over the age of 65 are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures.

Globally, heat-related deaths in people aged over 65 were 85% higher in 2013-22 than in 1991-2000, the report finds. This rise is “substantially higher” than the 38% increase expected if the climate had remained constant and only demographics had changed, it adds.

For the first time, the report also includes projections of what key indicators may show in the future. The report authors developed these with the help of the Climate Vulnerable Forum – a group of countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

They find that if global temperature rise is only limited to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, stabilising at 1.8C by the end of the century, then annual heatwave exposure for people older than 65 will rise by more than 2,500% by 2080-2100, compared to 1995-2014 levels.

The report warns that outdoor workers are the “most exposed to climate hazards”. It estimates that in 2022, around 1.6bn paid workers – mainly “young or middle-aged” men – worked outside. However, the report notes that unpaid labour, which is often disproportionately carried out by women, is not included in these figures.

The graphs below show the average annual hours per person over 1991-2022 when “light physical activity” entailed at least a moderate (light orange), high (dark orange), or extreme (red) heat stress risk.

From left to right, countries are grouped according to their human development index – a measure of a country’s development, where higher numbers indicate greater development. Least developed countries (low HDI) are shown in the left-most chart and the most developed countries (very high HDI) are in the right-most chart.

Average annual hours per person over 1991-2022 when light physical activity entailed at least a moderate (light orange), high (dark orange), or extreme (red) heat stress risk, for countries with a low (left), medium (middle left), high (middle right) and very high (right) human development index.
Average annual hours per person over 1991-2022 when light physical activity entailed at least a moderate (light orange), high (dark orange), or extreme (red) heat stress risk, for countries with a low (left), medium (middle left), high (middle right) and very high (right) human development index. Source: Lancet Countdown report (2023).

Heat exposure caused 490bn potential labour hours to be lost globally in 2022, amounting to 143 hours per person, the report estimates. This is nearly a 42% increase from the 1991-2000 average, it adds.

The authors find that loss of labour due to heat exposure resulted in a $863bn loss of “potential income” in 2022. The agriculture sector was hit the hardest by the loss of labour, accounting for 82% of losses in low HDI countries, they add.

Dr Marina Romanello is the executive director of the Lancet Countdown, a climate change and health researcher at University College London and lead author on the report. She told a press briefing that workers in the agricultural sector are “heavily exposed to the elements” and often have few resources to protect themselves.

She added that in countries with a low HDI, agricultural workers are often in charge of local food production, meaning that heat-related labour loss has direct implications for food security.

Loss of labour due to heat stress wiped out the equivalent of 4.1% of Africa’s GDP in 2022, mainly from losses in the agricultural sector, the report finds. Meanwhile, Europe and North America only saw labour losses equivalent to 0.1% and 0.2% of their GDP, respectively.

The graph below shows effective income losses in 2022 due to heat stress in agriculture (blue) and other sectors (red), as a percentage of GDP, by continent.

Effective income losses in 2022 due to heat stress in agriculture (blue) and other sectors (red), as a percentage of GDP.
Effective income losses in 2022 due to heat stress in agriculture (blue) and other sectors (red), as a percentage of GDP. Source: Lancet report (2023). Chart by Carbon Brief.

Unequal impacts

The authors also explore how the changing climate affects people indirectly, including through changes in agriculture and the spread of disease.

The report finds that the global land area affected by at least one month of “extreme drought” per year increased from 18% in 1951-60 to 47% in 2013-22. The map below shows the change in the number of months of extreme drought between these two time periods, where red indicates an increase in drought and blue a decrease.

Global land area affected by at least one month of “extreme drought” per year.
Global land area affected by at least one month of “extreme drought” per year. Source: Lancet Countdown report (2023)

Africa was also the region most affected by droughts over 2013-22, with 64% of its land area affected by at least one month of extreme drought per year – up from 9% in 1951-60 – the report finds.

Year-round drought affected many “vulnerable areas” in 2022, the report warns. It highlights the ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa, where millions of people have been pushed into famine. (Separate analysis has found that the drought “would not have happened” without climate change.)

The Lancet adds that the higher frequency of droughts and heatwaves in 2021 pushed 127 million more people into “moderate or severe” food insecurity, compared to 1980-2010. This was one of the most “shocking” findings of the report, Romanello told the press briefing.

The report projects that under a 2C warming scenario, 525 million more people will face food insecurity by 2041-60 than in the 1995-2014 baseline.

Climate change is also increasing the range of certain pathogens. Warmer seas have already increased the area of coastline suitable for Vibrio bacteria – a pathogen that can cause sickness in people and animals.

Meanwhile, a combination of climate change, urbanisation and human movement are driving up cases of dengue fever, the report finds. It says that “cases of dengue have doubled every decade since 1990, and almost half of the world population is now at risk of this life-threatening disease”.

However, the report also points to positive developments, such as the increase in research on climate change and health.

The number of scientific papers investigating the links between health and climate change in 2022 was three times higher than in 2012, the report finds. It adds that most research focuses on Asia and studies the impacts of climate change on health, although there is a rising number of papers addressing mitigation and adaptation too.

‘Unjust transition’

The report also assesses the progress of the global energy transition, stating that the world is “often moving in the wrong direction”.

Developed countries still have much higher per-capita emissions than less developed ones. In 2020, per-person CO2 emissions in Oceania, for example, were 14 times higher than in Africa and more than three times higher than in Asia, according to the report.

The authors paint a picture of uneven progress in the push to decarbonise. Developed nations are making “steady but insufficient progress towards transitioning”, while less developed nations are not receiving the funding they need to do the same.

“Modern renewables” such as wind and solar accounted for 90% of new electricity capacity in 2022, the report finds. However, it notes that only 1% of renewable energy investments in 2022 were in Africa. It adds that modern renewables make up 11% of all electricity generated in very high HDI countries, but account for 2% of electricity in low HDI countries.

The graph below shows the carbon intensity of the energy system, both globally (dashed) and by HDI (solid coloured lines).

The carbon intensity of the energy system in countries with different HDIs.
The carbon intensity of the energy system in countries with different HDIs. Source: Lancet Countdown report (2023).

“Access to stable, non-polluting energy is crucial for advancing health and wellbeing,” the report says. It estimates that in 2022, 77 million people had no access to electricity – mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia – while millions of others only have access to “dirty” energy sources.

Biomass burning – which the report calls “highly polluting” – accounted for 92% of household energy in low HDI countries and 8% in very high HDI countries in 2020. Women and girls are often “tasked with household energy-related activities”, meaning they are disproportionately affected by air pollution-related diseases, the report notes.

Overall, air pollution caused by particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5) was responsible for 1.2 million deaths in 2020, down from 1.4 million in 2005, the report finds. “Reduced coal pollution contributed to about 80% of the decrease,” it adds.

The figure below shows the mortality rate due to PM2.5 in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 for countries with low (top), medium (second from the top), high (second from the bottom) and very high (bottom) HDI levels.

The colour of each bar indicates which sector produced the pollution, for example light blue for agriculture and purple for households. The shading on each bar indicates the type of fuel.

Mortality rate due to PM2.5 split by fuel type, sector, year and HDI level.
Mortality rate due to PM2.5 split by fuel type, sector, year and HDI level. Source: Lancet countdown report (2023).

“The uptake of clean energies has been unjust and way too slow,” Romanello told the press briefing.

However, Romanello said the report also gives reason for “hope”. For example, the report finds that employment in the renewable energy sector increased by 5.6% in 2021 reaching a record of 12.7 million employees.

The graph below shows employment in different renewable energy sectors (bars) and in fossil fuel extraction (orange dots).

Employment in different renewable energy sectors and in fossil fuel extraction.
Employment in different renewable energy sectors and in fossil fuel extraction. Source: Lancet countdown (2023)

‘Wrong direction’

The final section of the report focuses on finance. It finds that investment into low-carbon energy increased globally by 15% in 2022 to $1.6tn, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 61%. Meanwhile, lending to the low-carbon energy sector has “radically increased”, reaching near-parity with lending to the oil and gas sector.

However, the authors warn that financing to the fossil fuel sector is still on the rise. Over 2017-21, the 40 banks that lent most to the fossil fuel sector collectively invested $489bn annually in fossil fuels – a 52% increase from their 2010-16 lending – the report finds. In addition, global fossil fuel investment increased by 10% in 2022, reaching more than $1tn.

In 2020, 78% of the countries assessed generated collective fossil fuel subsidies of $305bn – a value higher than 10% of national health spending in 26 of the countries – the report adds.

It adds that the strategies of the world’s 20 largest oil and gas companies as of February 2023 would result in emissions surpassing levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C by 173% in 2040, if they were carried out as planned.

The report warns that inequalities between developed and developing countries “are aggravated by the persistent failure of the wealthiest countries to deliver the promised modest annual sum of $100bn to support climate action”.

However, it also highlights the “transformative health benefits that could come from the transition to a zero-carbon future”, and emphasises the need for a central role that the health community can play in securing these benefits.

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New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

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        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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        SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.

        The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.

        An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.

        Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.

        Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.

        “The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

        “The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”

        Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.

        “The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.

        “The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”

        After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.

        Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.

        “Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”

        -ENDS-

        Media contact

        Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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