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In just over two weeks nearly 200 governments will signal what they believe the world needs to do next to tackle the climate crisis.

The final outcome of Cop28 will – when it finally lands around 12-13 December – offer the best assessment of how far and how fast leaders are willing to go to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

That deal will not be easy for Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al-Jaber to deliver. But given revelations by the BBC that the UAE planned to use Cop to cut oil deals, he will be under intense scrutiny and pressure to deliver a high ambition outcome that charts a pathway to fossil fuel phaseout.

This meeting comes at an exceptionally difficult time globally and with the backdrop of many tensions, the war in the Middle East being the most recent addition. Yet the annual UN climate summit is no stranger to diplomatic heat.

The ‘inevitable’ fossil fuel fight set to dominate Cop28

In the near 30 years of these meetings tensions have often been high: this in itself cannot be used as an excuse for failure.

Governments are faced with a clear challenge. This year will be the hottest year on record. Global greenhouse gas emissions are at all time highs. Climate impacts are hitting home, driving up food inflation, choking the Panama canal, drying the Amazon, killing crops in Africa, burning vast swathes of North America and leaving areas of India, China underwater.

Given the scale of the crisis, the benchmarks for success at Cop28 are high. The evidence – as presented in the Global Stocktake – must inform the results and that means a high ambition outcome.

Fossil fuel phaseout

For one, Cop28 must land a collective plan for a just and equitable phaseout of coal, gas and oil – the key drivers of the climate crisis.

To keep 1.5C within reach, the energy transition needs to accelerate.

Slow or insufficient action on fossil fuels would mean more economic instability through the 2020s and 2030s.

If “abatement” technologies are applied in some sectors, they need to capture all emissions, not delay action.

Cop28 decisions can send a clear signal that “business as usual” and relying on uncertain future abatement technologies is no longer viable.

Renewables and efficiency

Second, countries are expected to commit to triple renewable energy by 2030 and double energy efficiency.

Many are on track for this already but a common – united goal – will send market signals and can strengthen the fossil fuel phase out. Setting a framework for delivering this at Cop28 with measures to track progress is essential.

Finance

Three, clean energy and measures to beef up adaptation and resilience of countries to extreme weather need finance.

That the $100 billion has now been met  is good news, but it’s far short of the $1 trillion a year that’s required to support poorer nations.

We need agreement at Cop28 from major development banks and donors that access to finance will be faster and at lower costs. No finance, no future.

Stocktake

Four, a flotilla of new climate plans for 2035 are due in around 15 months.

The Global Stocktake outcomes should be used to ensure 2025 sets a new standard for governments to meet.

That means tougher targets covering more sectors. It also means ensuring that adaptation is treated as a priority: scaling up plans to cope with future disasters is essential, as is the cash to support that.

Loss and damage

Five, delivery of the loss & damage fund at Cop28 will be a major milestone. Success will depend on funding.

We’ll need to see this during and after the World Leaders Summit from 1-2 December to rebuild trust and reassure poorer nations that those with the resources have their back when extreme weather hits.

A final deal without these five pillars is not credible. It would deny the realities faced by the poorest and most vulnerable countries and leave them in the lurch.

No number of assorted voluntary “pledges” or “statements” at Cop28 can make up for a concrete agreement by all countries under the UN.

Carefully worded press releases and neat spin from major PR firms will be tomorrow’s recycled paper. A “Dubai Deal” under the UN will have a legacy, and one the UAE could be proud of.

In numbers: The state of the climate ahead of Cop28

Landing these five pillars takes diplomatic leadership. It requires the EU, the UK and Canada to step up and build an alliance with small islands, low income nations and African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto by recognising and meeting asks for support.

At a time when confidence in the “West” is low and accusations it is not supporting developing countries are rife, Brussels, London and Washington need to deliver – on more than just rhetoric.

Cop28 offers a platform for leaders in India, China and Brazil to address on the global stage the deep risks their populations face as the world warms, and recognise the profound reward they will gain from leaning into a strong outcome.

All three nations are clean energy powerhouses; all three have key resources for the clean transition; all three have an interest in deals that deliver jobs, prosperity and curb the rising cost of living.

Fearing repression in Dubai, non-binary people stay away from Cop28

Most of all success at Cop28 also depends on Dr Sultan Al-Jaber’s ability to make this summit his country’s moment to stand tall and deliver globally.

A presidency that pursues its own domestic and regional interests is one that usually fails.

Given his role as CEO of an oil giant, Al-Jaber will need to work harder than most to underline his climate credentials.

Deliver on the above and this could be the UAE’s greatest achievement.

Fail and he will blow a glorious opportunity to cement the UAE as a global player and confirm the worst fears of those who said his heart was never in it.

Alex Scott is E3G’s climate diplomacy and geopolitics programme lead, based in London

Linda Kalcher is executive director at the Strategic Perspectives think tank, based in Brussels

The post Here’s how the oil-rich UAE delivers a Cop28 ‘win’ appeared first on Climate Home News.

Here’s how the oil-rich UAE delivers a Cop28 ‘win’

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The Land Came First

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An older teaching about land acknowledgement

As I have come to understand the spirit and intention of land acknowledgement, I often return to fond memories of my grandmother and her words of wisdom. She taught that the health of the places we call home comes first, because the wellbeing of the people depends on it.

In her teaching, land acknowledgement began with the land. Long before it became a paragraph read at the start of a meeting, it was a way of recognizing a homeland: its waters, its species, its seasons, and the spirit that revealed whether the place was well.

Her teaching echoes a practice found across many Indigenous Nations. Haudenosaunee gatherings, for example, have long opened with the Ohén:ton Karihwatéhkwen, the Thanksgiving Address, often translated as “the words that come before all else.” The speaker greets and gives thanks to the people, the earth, the waters, the plants, the animals, the winds, the sun, the moon and the stars. Only after everything that sustains life has been acknowledged does the gathering turn to its own business.

That order changes what an acknowledgement is for. Its purpose was to share the story of a place with neighbours and to draw them into the work of tending it. People entered the story second, as the ones responsible for what had just been named.

Understood this way, an acknowledgement does more than open a meeting. It asks us to reconsider where we stand, and what we owe the ground beneath us.

Nations among nations

In her teaching, people are one nation among many. The salmon are a nation. So are the cedars, the bison, the medicine plants, and the pollinators. Each belongs to a place, carries its own responsibilities, and offers gifts no other nation can give.

This idea of kinship runs through many Indigenous philosophies. The phrase “all my relations,” heard in ceremonies and gatherings across Turtle Island, is a reminder that family extends beyond people to the animals, plants, waters and lands that make life possible. Some Indigenous languages carry the same understanding in their grammar, speaking of many plants, animals and natural forces as living beings rather than objects.

Sovereignty, understood through this relationship, is a kind of standing more than a form of control. Each nation belongs fully to its place and carries its share of that place’s life. No nation thrives alone, and none thrives by taking over the whole.

The land is also the source of instruction. Over generations, people watched how a river valley or a stretch of prairie kept itself well: who arrived when, who fed whom, and how much could be taken before the giving stopped. In my grandmother’s telling, those observations became instructions, and those instructions helped shape law and protocol. They guided when to harvest, where to camp, how to enter a neighbour’s territory, and what was owed in return.

Indigenous legal scholars today often describe this as law that comes from the land itself, learned by watching how living systems sustain one another. A plainer name for it is knowing how to live somewhere.

The host and the guest

One of the clearest teachings in this understanding of the world is the relationship between host and guest. My grandmother invited us to recognize that relationship in the lives of plants and animals.

A host prepares the place before anyone arrives. A beaver family dams a stream, and the pond becomes a home for fish, frogs, birds and plants. A fallen tree becomes a nurse log, feeding the next generation of seedlings as it returns to the soil.

A host offers first. A flowering plant sets out nectar. A berry bush ripens fruit. These provisions come in their own season, not whenever a visitor happens to want them.

A host also makes its presence known. Birdsong, scent and the marks left along a trail tell newcomers that a place is already inhabited. The visitor does not arrive in an empty world.

The guest has responsibilities too. A guest attends to the season and to what the place can offer. A guest does not assume that everything within reach is theirs to take. A guest leaves something that helps sustain the relationship.

A bee takes nectar and carries pollen. Read through this teaching, that exchange offers an image of visiting well: receiving a gift while helping the host continue its life.

Many Indigenous harvesting protocols carry the same ethic into daily practice: ask before taking, take only what is needed, offer thanks, and leave enough for others and for the plant or animal to recover.

None of this suggests that every relationship in nature is peaceful or generous. These are ways of seeing responsibilities that people can learn to carry.

Everyone is both

No being is only a host or only a guest.

A tree makes room for other life while depending on soil, water, sunlight, fungi, and relationships beyond itself. People, too, may welcome others into their homes while remaining dependent on the larger homeland that sustains them.

The distinction between host and guest is therefore about roles, not ranks. Everyone receives. Everyone has something to give.

The question is whether the exchange sustains the place.

A visitor who takes without restraint leaves less for those who come next. A host who neglects the place has less to offer. Both have responsibilities, and neither can fulfil them alone.

This is the heart of reciprocity, a principle found across Indigenous philosophies: relationships stay healthy when gifts move in both directions. The Haudenosaunee teaching of the seventh generation extends that exchange across time, asking that decisions made today leave the place well for those not yet born.

Mutual benefit begins here, with the recognition that different beings carry different gifts and obligations.

What people carry forward

My grandmother’s teaching connects these relationships to the ways people meet their neighbours.

The host prepares a place, offers food and rest, and explains where the visitor has arrived. The guest makes themselves known, explains why they have come, listens to the terms of the visit, and brings something in return. The gift may be material. It may also be labour, knowledge, news, or a commitment to help.

Nations around the Great Lakes carried this ethic into treaty. The Dish with One Spoon, an agreement among the Haudenosaunee, Anishinaabe and allied Nations, describes shared hunting grounds as a single dish. Everyone eats from it with one spoon, takes only what they need, leaves enough for others, and keeps the dish clean. The Two Row Wampum, between the Haudenosaunee and European newcomers, shows two vessels travelling side by side on the same river, each keeping its own ways and neither steering the other.

In this understanding, acknowledgement is more than naming the people associated with a territory. It is learning enough about a homeland to behave responsibly within it.

Whose home is this? What sustains it? What laws and agreements guide our presence? What can we receive, and what must we return?

These questions make acknowledgement a relationship rather than a recital.

They also make it diplomatic. A guest who recognizes the host’s homeland recognizes that they have entered a place with its own relationships and responsibilities. A host who welcomes the guest makes room for an encounter governed by those relationships.

Neither arrives without standing. Neither arrives without obligations.

Beginning with place

I write from the shores of the Bay of Quinte. Here, the teaching asks me to begin with the water, the shoreline, and the life they sustain. Before I describe myself, I must attend to where I am.

That does not make people or history less important. It places them within the homeland that gives them meaning. The people, their laws, their agreements, and their responsibilities all belong to the place.

In a time of longer fire seasons, troubled waters, and uncertainty about what the next season will bring, this teaching asks something difficult and useful of us: pay attention before you speak.

An acknowledgement cannot tell the story of a place if the speaker has stopped noticing it.

The land came first. Beginning there again means learning to name what sustains us, and accepting that what sustains us also asks something of us.

By Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

Photo by Andrik Langfield on Unsplash

The post The Land Came First appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

The Land Came First

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Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to new figures from the Global Carbon Project.

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to new figures from the Global Carbon Project.

The 21st edition of the annual “global carbon budget” report, published today, says that this small decline is largely due to a 1.9% drop in emissions from oil and the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.

Emissions from coal continue to increase slightly.

The Global Carbon Project’s projections for fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2026 are preliminary, with a range that spans a fall of -1.5% to a rise of +0.6%.

This means a small increase in emissions can not be ruled out.

Emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, are projected to rise in 2026.

This is primarily driven by peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia and is linked to the development of a strong El Niño event this year.

As a result, total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026 – marginally above 42.8GtCO2 in 2025.

Research published alongside the report by the same team in Nature Climate Change finds that the growth in solar, wind and electric vehicles (EVs) now offsets around two-thirds of the emissions that would otherwise come from rising energy demand.

However, the deployment of these technologies is not yet enough to push global emissions into a sustained decline, according to the study.

The 2026 global carbon budget report also estimates that:

  • Fossil emissions are projected to fall in China (-0.9%), the US (-1.3%) and the EU (-1.5%) in 2026, but rise by 4.4% in India.
  • Oil emissions are projected to fall in every major region, with the largest drop in China (-4.6%).
  • Land-use emissions averaged 4.9GtCO2 per year over 2016-25, around 21% lower than the decade before.
  • Total CO2 emissions (fossil and land-use) grew by an average 0.3% per year over the past decade (2016-25), compared with 1.7% per year over the decade before.
  • The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C is 150GtCO2, or less than four years of current emissions.
  • The land sink in 2025 was the highest on record, rebounding after being weakened during the 2023-24 El Niño. The current El Niño is expected to weaken the land sink in 2027.
  • The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.

(For more on previous editions of the Global Carbon Project’s annual report, see Carbon Brief’s coverage in 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2022.)

Total emissions edge up as land-use emissions rise

Total global CO2 emissions, which combines fossil fuels and land-use change, are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026, up from 42.8GtCO2 in 2025.

The increase in 2026 comes entirely from a projected rise in land-use emissions, which are more challenging to estimate than fossil emissions.

(The global carbon budget groups emissions from fossil fuels and cement production as “fossil emissions”. Carbon Brief follows this convention throughout this piece.)

If land-use emissions had stayed at 2025 levels, total emissions would have fallen slightly in 2026 to around 42.6GtCO2.

Each edition of the global carbon budget updates the historical record as new data and methods become available. The chart below shows total emissions in this year’s budget compared with the five previous editions.

Chart showing that global CO2 emissions are on track to reach a record high in 2026.
Shaded area shows the one-standard deviation uncertainty for the 2026 budget. 2026 values are projections.

This year’s estimates of historical fossil emissions are around 0.3GtCO2 per year higher than in last year’s budget.

This is largely because the report now estimates a smaller “cement carbonation” sink in the wake of research published this year in Communications Sustainability. In other words, it estimates that cement is able to slowly reabsorb less CO2 over its lifetime than previously thought.

Estimates of land-use emissions have also been revised, including a spike in 2018 – visible in the chart above – linked to updated cropland data for Colombia.

The updated numbers show that total emissions have grown by 0.3% per year over the past decade (2016-25), compared with 1.7% per year over 2006-15.

Fossil emissions grew about 0.9% per year in the past decade, compared with 1.9% the decade before. Over the same period, land-use emissions have declined.

While the slowdown reflects real progress, a plateau in emissions is still a long way from the rapid declines needed to reach net-zero emissions and stabilise global temperatures.

With human-caused warming reaching 1.37C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in 2025, the report estimates that the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C, with a 50% chance, is 150GtCO2 from the start of 2027. That is less than four years of 2026 emissions.

Meanwhile, the budgets for 1.7C and 2C are 510GtCO2 and 1,035GtCO2, respectively – or around 12 and 24 years of current emissions.

Fossil emissions made up around 88% of total CO2 emissions over the past decade, with land-use change making up the remaining 12%.

This is a marked change from the first half of the 20th century, when land-use emissions were larger than those from fossil fuels.

The figure below shows global emissions, split into fossil and land-use components.

Chart showing that CO2 emissions grew 0.3% a year over the past decade.
Fossil emissions account for the cement carbonation sink. 2026 values are projections.

Global per-capita fossil emissions peaked in the early 2010s and have since slightly declined. At around 4.6 tonnes per person in 2026, they are about 4% below that peak.

It is worth noting that this global average hides very large differences between countries. For example, 2025 per-capita emissions in India are only 2.2 tonnes, compared with 14.5 tonnes in the US.

Chart showing that per-person fossil CO2 in 2026 is around 4% lower than its early-2010s peak.
Fossil emissions account for the cement carbonation sink. 2026 population is extrapolated from 2024-25 growth. Data for 2026 is a projection.

Land-use emissions rise in 2026

Land-use emissions come from deforestation, forest degradation, wood harvest, peatland drainage and fires. They are partly offset by forest regrowth and new forests.

Net land-use emissions averaged 4.9GtCO2 per year over 2016-25, down from 6.2GtCO2 per year over 2006-15, marking a decline of around 21%. This decline holds across all three of the “bookkeeping” models used by the Global Carbon Project to track land-use emissions.

(For more on trends in global land-use emissions and how they are calculated, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.)

Land-use emissions are projected to rise to 5.1GtCO2 in 2026, up from 4.4GtCO2 in 2025.

The report attributes the increase to peat fires, almost all ignited by people, and forest degradation in south-east Asia due to drier conditions associated with El Niño.

Uncertainties in land-use emissions are much higher than for fossil emissions given the challenges in tracking them.

While 2026 shows a nominal increase, it is only slightly above the average over the past decade.

Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Indonesia together accounted for 2.6GtCO2 of land-use emissions per year over 2015-25, or around 54% of the global total.

The figure below shows how land-use emissions for these three countries and the rest of the world have changed since 1960.

Chart showing that land-use emissions fell 21% over 2016-25 compared with the previous decade.
Includes peat drainage and peat fires. Country-level land-use emissions are not yet available for 2026.

Fossil emissions fall in most major economies

Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026. However, challenges associated with precisely measuring and projecting 2026 means this could end up anywhere between a 1.5% decline and a 0.6% increase.

The figure below provides a breakdown of fossil emissions over time by major country and region, including China, the US, the EU, India and the rest of the world.

Chart showing that China's CO2 emissions have tripled this century as US and EU emissions have fallen.
Total global emissions are slightly more than reported elsewhere, as data excludes the cement carbonation sink, because countries do not report this data. “Rest of world” includes international aviation and shipping. 2026 data is a projection.

The global carbon budget report sets out the following projections for 2026 in major economies:

Country, region or sector Percentage of global emissions 2026 emissions projection
China 32% China is projected to see emissions fall by 0.9% (with a range of -2.6% to +0.8%), after two years of low growth. 

Oil emissions fall sharply by 4.6%, gas falls 0.9% and coal rises only slightly by 0.3%. The report attributes this to strong growth in renewables and milder summer temperatures than 2025’s record highs, which reduced demand for cooling.

This is in line with Carbon Brief analysis showing that China’s emissions fell in the second quarter of 2026 as oil use dropped, though it remains too early to determine if this decline reflects a peaking of emissions.

US 13% The US is projected to see a 1.3% decline (-3.4% to +0.8%), mainly due to a 6.7% fall in coal emissions after an unusual rise in 2025 driven by high gas prices and cold weather. Oil fell 1.1%, while gas increased by 0.5%.
India 8% India is projected to see emissions rise by 4.4% (+1.7% to +7.1%), which is higher than its average growth of 3.5% per year over the past decade. Coal rises 5.9%, while oil emissions fall slightly by -0.9%.
EU 6% The EU is projected to see a 1.5% decline (-4.0% to +0.9%), with coal down 2.9% and oil down 1.8%.
Japan 2.5% Japan is projected to see a 1.0% decline, continuing a trend as transport is electrified, its population ages and nuclear power stations come back online.
International aviation and shipping 3% International aviation and shipping are each projected to fall by 1%, partly due to reduced air and sea traffic in the Middle East.
Rest of world 38% The rest of the world is projected to see a 0.7% decline (-2.9% to +1.5%), mostly from oil, which the report links to high prices and supply constraints.

The figure below shows how each country or region contributed to changes in global fossil emissions in each year between 2023 and 2026.