Wider adoption of heat pumps could accelerate decarbonisation of heating in China’s carbon-intensive buildings and light industry sectors, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
The report, published in collaboration with Tsinghua University, finds that, by using heat pumps as part of China’s strategy to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, direct emissions for heating in buildings could fall by 75% to 70m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) in 2050, due to increased electrification and improvements to energy efficiency.
Similarly, using heat pumps could help reduce direct emissions from heating in light industries from more than 110MtCO2 today to less than 10MtCO2 in 2050.
In 2023, China was one of the few nations to see total heat pump sales rise. However, greater policy support is still needed to accelerate uptake and help shift the buildings and light industry sectors towards less-carbon intensive energy sources, the report says.
- How much energy does China consume for heat?
- How can heat pumps help China meet its ‘dual carbon’ goals?
- How effective are heat pumps as a solution for China?
- How can policy support heat pump adoption?
How much energy does China consume for heat?
China’s final energy consumption was 107 exajoules (EJ) of energy in 2022. Within this, the IEA report says, heat consumption reached about 50EJ. China’s heat consumption equals “about one-third” of total heat consumption globally.
Around a quarter of China’s heat use is in buildings, with the remainder in industry.
In the buildings sector, heat consumption has grown faster in China than in any other country over the past decade, standing at 12EJ in 2022. This is largely due to growing demand for heat for space and water, which has “nearly tripled” direct and indirect emissions since 2000.
Since 2010, direct coal consumption for heating overall has fallen by 15%. The IEA report attributes this to policy drives beginning in the mid-2010s, initially “to improve air quality, then later to expand clean and low-carbon heating”.
However, an exception to this is district heating, namely, a centralised heating mechanism that is the dominant source of heat for urban areas in northern China. Heat pumps and other decentralised solutions are more common in southern and rural northern China.
District heating networks in northern China rely on coal for more than 80% of their heat production. It is the key driver of coal consumption in building heat provision across the country, according to the IEA.
One 2019 study found that China’s emissions from district heating alone were greater than the total CO2 emissions of the UK.
Dr Chiara Delmastro and Dr Rafael Martinez Gordon, the report’s lead authors, tell Carbon Brief:
“[This] was mostly driven by the expansion of [heat] networks in north urban China, in particular…The length of the district heat network has increased by 250% since 2010, of which the large majority is in the north.”
Delmastro and Martinez Gordon also note, however, that “China has taken action towards cleaner and more efficient heating in recent years” – for example, by shifting from using coal-fired boilers to more efficient combined heat and power plants.
Meanwhile, heat consumption for industry in 2022 totalled 38EJ. Some of this demand is for low- and medium-temperature heat (below 200C), which is generally required for light industries, as well as the pulp and paper sector and some chemical sector processes.
This demand – which could easily be served by existing state-of-the-art heat pump technology – totaled 4.7EJ in 2022 and released more than 110MtCO2 of direct emissions, the report says.
However, more than 80% of industrial demand for heat requires temperatures above 200C, predominantly for iron and steel manufacturing. Other industries that require such high temperatures include non-metallic minerals and non-ferrous metals, as well as some processes in the chemicals and petrochemicals and pulp and paper sectors. These sectors comprised the majority of industrial heat demand, consuming 33EJ in 2022.
How can heat pumps help China meet its ‘dual carbon’ goals?
Heat demand in buildings and industry in China is largely driven by coal and accounts for 40% of both China’s coal consumption and its CO2 emissions.
The IEA does note, however, that the use of coal for heat has reduced slightly, largely due to “policies to improve air quality, reduce CO2 emissions and maximise energy efficiency”.
In 2022, carbon emissions from space and water heating accounted for the vast majority of direct emissions from buildings in China, around 290MtCO2, while direct emissions from heating for light industry totalled 110MtCO2. The IEA places China’s total carbon emissions at 12,135MtCO2 in 2022.
The report provides estimates of the uptake of heat pumps in China under the “announced pledges scenario” (APS), in which governments are given the benefit of the doubt and assumed to meet all of their climate goals on time and in full.
It also looks at uptake under the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS), reflecting the IEA’s own judgement of where government policy is currently heading.
If China upholds its “dual carbon” commitments, in line with the APS, then the IEA estimates that heat pump capacity in buildings would rise to 1,400 gigawatts (GW) in 2050, meeting one-quarter of China’s heat demand for the sector.
Under the APS, China would install 100GW in buildings each year until 2050 – the equivalent of “the capacity deployed in the US, China and the EU in 2022 combined”.
Emissions from buildings heat would fall from 290MtCO2 to 80MtCO2 in 2050, a reduction of 210MtCO2, with heat pumps accounting for 30% of this decrease. The other drivers for building decarbonisation would include greater adoption of electrification, energy efficiency measures and behaviour changes.
For light industry, under the APS, approximately 1.5GW of heat pumps would be installed annually between 2025 and 2050, meeting one-fifth of heat demand in 2050.
This would contribute to “drastically” reducing carbon emissions, which would fall by 95% overall from more than 110MtCO2 to 10MtCO2. Electrification, including through use of heat pumps, would be responsible for 70% of these emissions reductions.
The report adds that two energy-intensive sectors could be well-suited to using heat pumps: the pulp and paper sector, in which around 55% of current heat demand could be provided by industrial heat pumps, and the chemical sector, for which around 18% of demand could be met.
Heat pumps would be unlikely to serve demand for other energy-intensive sectors, however, as “only a few early-stage prototypes exist for temperatures beyond 200C, all of which are far from being ready for the mass market”.
Even under the STEPS, the stock of heat pumps in buildings in China would double, reaching more than 1,100GW by 2050 and contributing to building emissions falling by more than 25%, with fuel-switching options such as coal-to-gas also playing a role.
For light industries, heat pump-led CO2 emissions reductions under STEPs would “remain limited”, as under the current policy settings, heat pumps may be “deployed slowly”. Overall, by 2050 heat-related emissions would only fall by 15%.
Significantly, the policies required to meet climate goals in China – and the rest of the world – under the APS would see some industries “strongly mobilised”, the report says. Sectors such as mining and machinery would need to expand, ramping up clean-energy technology production to meet domestic and global demand.
While this additional industrial activity would raise China’s heat demand by 5% in the APS compared with the STEPS, the associated emissions would be more than offset by the savings enabled by wider deployment of electrification and clean heating technologies.
Moreover, the deployment of heat pumps would allow for a 20% decline in the energy intensity of heat supply by 2050 – the energy demand per unit of heat – compared to today, the report says.
The alignment between expanded heat pump use and decarbonisation of the electricity system could see indirect emissions from power generation for heat drop by more than 40% by 2030 as more renewable and nuclear power comes online, it adds. By 2050, electricity’s share in heat generation could exceed 75%.
For example, the IEA states that the pulp and paper sector could see coal use “almost entirely phased out by 2050”, if China’s climate goals are met. The sector has already cut the share of coal in its energy needs from 43% in 2010 to 10% in 2022, due to electrification and coal-to-gas shifts.
Under the APS, direct coal use for space and water heating in China would fall by 75% by 2030 and would be “almost completely phased out” by 2040, with heat pumps becoming a key technology for heating in urban and rural areas by 2050.
However, significant investment would be needed in this scenario to deploy enough heat pumps to meet demand.
How effective are heat pumps as a solution for China?
With more than 250GW of installed heat pump capacity in buildings in 2023, China accounts for more than 25% of global heat pump sales and was the only major market to see heat pump sales grow in 2023, the report says. In 2022, 8% of all heating equipment sales for buildings in China were heat pumps.
They are “already the norm” for space heating and cooling in buildings in some parts of central and southern China, which do not benefit from centralised district heating. Rural areas are now seeing a growing uptake of heat pumps, due to policy support to encourage rural regions to limit coal consumption, the report adds.
The same is also true for district heating, where network operators are increasingly installing heat pumps. While the majority are “air-source” pumps operating at relatively low temperatures, some networks are beginning to use large-scale heat pumps that recycle waste heat from steel mills, sewage treatment processes and coal chemical plants.
They “offer one of the most efficient options for decarbonising heat in district heating networks, buildings and industry”, according to the report.
In terms of both direct and indirect emissions, annual carbon emissions from a heat pump currently installed in China are more than 30% lower than those from gas boilers. “Shifting from fossil fuel boilers to heat pumps”, the report says, “would reduce CO2 emissions virtually everywhere they are installed”.
Despite high upfront installation costs, heat pumps also help users save money on energy bills over their lifetimes, according to the IEA.
The image below shows the different climate zones across China. Air-to-air heat pumps are more cost-effective than both gas boilers and electric heaters in some colder climates, as well as in regions with hot summers and cold winters.
Air-to-water heat pumps save money over electric heaters, although they are only less expensive than gas boilers in areas with competitive electricity prices compared to gas.
Heat pump use in energy-intensive industries is less viable, as current technologies to generate temperatures above 200C are still largely under development.
However, for light industries, industrial heat pumps are “far cheaper” than gas and electric boilers and nearly cost-competitive with coal boilers over their lifetimes, due to their high efficiency levels, states the report.
Despite this, uptake is not widespread, due to high upfront installation costs and lack of public awareness of the effectiveness of heat pumps.
Delmastro and Martinez Gordon tell Carbon Brief:
“In certain processes alternative technologies [to heat pumps] might be less costly and more appropriate, and – depending on policy decisions – different levels of heat pump deployment may be stimulated. However, to meet China’s carbon neutrality goal, we estimate that heat pumps need to supply at least 20% of heat demand in light industries by 2050.”
The report adds that state-of-the-art heat pumps – heat pump technology that is either newly-released or close to release – are well-placed to meet heat consumption needs in the building sectors and light industry sectors, and could theoretically supply about 40% of demand.
In addition, China currently wastes heat resources that could be redirected via heat pumps. In 2021, it generated 45EJ of waste heat resources – almost equal to the combined heating demand of buildings and industry – from sources such as nuclear power plants, other power plants, industrial activity, data centres and wastewater, according to the report.
How can policy support heat pump adoption?
Heat pumps have “increasingly featured” in China’s national-level energy and climate policy as one aspect of the energy transition. For instance, the 14th “five-year plan” for a modern energy system (2021-2025) calls for the expansion of clean heating provision for end-users as part of its electrification drive.
However, Delmastro and Martinez Gordon explain that the more targeted, practical policy recommendations in the IEA report “should [fall] under the umbrella of a clear national action plan for heating decarbonisation, which is missing now in China”.
This would allow China to set quantitative targets for heat pump use that would provide a clear signal to markets and promote wider investment in R&D, manufacturing and deployment.
Meanwhile, the report suggests that more stringent performance requirements for new buildings, stronger energy performance benchmarks, inclusion of heat pump installation requirements in building codes and extension of the scope of the national emissions trading scheme (ETS) to include industry could all drive heat pump adoption.
Loans, tax credits and other financial support mechanisms could address consumer reluctance to pay high upfront installation costs, adds the report.
The northern city of Tianjin offered grants of 25,000 yuan ($3,700) for air-source heat pump purchases, but this is not a common practice – particularly in urban regions.
Raising awareness of the benefits of industrial heat pumps and reducing electricity costs for industry could accelerate uptake in light industry, the report says.
Electricity pricing incentives have already seen rural residential areas switch from using coal to using gas for heating. Similar incentives for electricity in rural parts of Beijing, as well as subsidies for installing heat pumps, mean that heat pumps are now the cheapest heating option for households in that region, based on IEA calculations.
Expanding this policy nationwide could “further increase the competitiveness of heat pumps in regions where electricity currently costs significantly more than gas”, the report states.
Other measures that could make heat pumps more attractive to consumers include combining heat pumps with solar panels or solar thermal solutions, plus adapting the power system to provide tiered electricity pricing and time-of-use power market measures.
Finally, more recovery of waste energy resources, combined with thermal energy storage technologies, could “optimise heat supply by transforming surplus electricity…into heat and storing it for use during the winter heating”, the report says.
“In northern Hebei, for example”, it adds, “heat recovered by heat pumps from renewable power and waste heat could account for 80% of the district heat supply during winter in 2050”.
The post Heat pumps could help cut China’s building CO2 emissions by 75%, says IEA appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heat pumps could help cut China’s building CO2 emissions by 75%, says IEA
The European Commission has rejected requests by green groups to review the status of 16 controversial projects it has designated as “strategic” to shore up the bloc’s supply of critical minerals needed for the energy transition, despite environmental concerns.
Campaigners accused the European Union’s executive arm of being more interested in labelling projects as “strategic” to accelerate their development than ensuring they meet its environmental standards.
Legal experts told Climate Home News that despite the EU’s rhetoric on developing sustainable mining standards, it will be very difficult for local communities and NGOs to use the judicial system to enforce compliance with environmental safeguards.
Earlier this year, the European Commission labelled 47 mineral extraction, processing and recycling projects within EU member states as “strategic“, granting them preferential treatment for gaining permits and easier access to EU funding.
-
Europe’s lithium rush leaves mineral-rich communities in the dark
Local residents are seeking more information and want stronger guarantees that mining won’t harm the nature on which their incomes depend -
South Africa’s platinum mine dumps get a second look as clean energy lifts demand
Mining firms say extracting minerals from tailings is a sustainable way to boost global supplies, but local communities want to see benefits this time around -
COP30 draft text includes energy transition minerals in UN climate first
A draft negotiating text on defining principles for a just transition to clean energy systems recognises the social and environmental risks associated with mining critical minerals
Spanning from the north of Sweden to Portugal and southern Spain, these projects are due to help the EU reach targets for sourcing more of the minerals it needs for clean energy and digital technologies within its own borders in an environmentally friendly way, while reducing its dependence on imports from China.
However, NGOs and local communities have accused the European Commission of a lack of transparency and of failing to engage civil society over the selection of these projects, most of which are in the early stages of development and are yet to obtain the necessary permits or conduct detailed environmental impact assessments.
Civil society groups challenged the decision to include around a third of projects on the strategic list, arguing that the commission had not properly assessed their sustainability. They also cited risks of social and environmental harm and human rights violations.
EU: Environmental compliance lies with member states
In total, 11 requests for review covering 16 of the projects planned within the EU were filed under the Aarhus Regulation, which gives NGOs the right to ask the European Commission to review administrative decisions if they are considered to violate the bloc’s environmental law.
In a single response shared with green groups this week, and seen by Climate Home News, the commission found that the requests to review the projects’ status were “unfounded”.
“A thorough assessment confirmed that all points raised by the NGOs had already been properly addressed during the selection process. All the projects concerned therefore retain their status as strategic projects,” a European Commission spokesperson told Climate Home News. They did not respond to detailed questions about their assessment.
Under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which was adopted last year, the commission can designate mineral projects as strategic if they meet a shortlist of criteria, including that the project “would be implemented sustainably” and monitor, prevent and minimise environmental and adverse social impacts.
The strategic status can be revoked if projects no longer meet the criteria.
However, the commission said it was not its job to carry out a full and detailed assessment of whether the projects fully comply with EU environmental laws, adding that it is only required to make an “overall assessment”.
Rather, it argued, member states have the responsibility to ensure the projects fully comply with EU environmental standards including impacts on biodiversity and ground water as well as waste management.
The commission also refused to examine the social impacts of the projects on community livelihoods, health and human rights – which could arise from environmental degradation – arguing that this was outside the scope of the review mechanism under the Aarhus Regulation.
Campaigners have strongly criticised the response.
“Cosmetic”sustainability criteria
Ilze Tralmaka, a lawyer at Client Earth, told Climate Home News the commission’s decision showed that the designation of mineral projects as “strategic” doesn’t make them safe or sustainable, despite creating a legal presumption that they serve the public interest and protect public health and safety.
“While on paper, there is mention of sustainability, in practice, it’s almost cosmetic,” she said. “It seems the environmental standards are just briefly looked at and that the policy of declaring these projects as strategic is more important than real engagement with the sustainability criteria.”
Client Earth argues that while securing supplies of minerals for the energy transition is a legitimate goal, the status of strategic project is being “misused” to fast-track questionable mining projects.
Tralmaka said the European Commission should engage where there are “unanswered questions, or if there is credible information about these projects being potentially unsafe”.
Client Earth was part of a group of NGOs that challenged the decision to designate the Barroso lithium project in Portugal as a strategic project.
“Textbook example of how not to do a green transition”
London-listed Savannah Resources is planning to dig four open pit mines in the northern Barroso region to extract lithium from Europe’s largest known deposit. The company says it will extract enough lithium every year to produce around half a million batteries for electric vehicles.
However, local groups have staunchly opposed the mining project, citing concerns over waste management and water use as well as the impact of the mine on traditional agriculture in the area.
Earlier this year, a UN committee found that Portugal had failed to respect citizens’ rights to information and public participation in the case of the Barroso project. Portuguese authorities denied the breach.
Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use
The commission said it was satisfied with the project’s overall sustainability credentials and that campaign groups should take a case to their national court if they are concerned about the legality of any project.
“This decision shows that the EU is willing to trade rural lives and irreplaceable landscapes for a political headline,” said Nik Völker of MiningWatch Portugal. “The truth is, the Mina do Barroso mine offers minimal benefits and enormous risks: a textbook example of how not to do a green transition.”
Savannah Resources did not respond to a request for comment.
“Murky” standards make legal challenge hard
Simon Simanovski, a business and human rights attorney with German law firm Günther Rechtsanwälte, has advised dozens of communities affected by projects designated as “strategic” under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act over the past year.
For him, the commission’s response creates a disconnect between its role as a decision-making body and the responsibility for enforcing the bloc’s environmental laws, by pushing it to member states. That, he said, creates “murky standards”.
This, he added, will make it “really difficult” to challenge inadequate environmental safeguards through the courts. “It means that there is no effective judicial protection… and that the projects will happen,” he told Climate Home News.
However, Simanovski still expects some campaign groups to try filing a case before the general court of the European Court of Justice to challenge the European Commission’s response and ask it to review its assessment of the projects.
Simanovski represents communities in Serbia that are also challenging the “strategic” designation of the Jadar lithium mine – one of an additional 13 “strategic projects” located outside EU countries – which has seen massive local opposition.
The commission is expected to respond to requests to review those external strategic projects in January.
The post EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition
Climate Change
DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
‘Lukewarm’ end to COP30
BYE BELÉM: The COP30 climate talks in Belém ended last weekend with countries agreeing on a goal to “triple” adaptation finance by 2035 and efforts to “strengthen” climate plans, Climate Home News reported. The final deal “fell short on the global transition away from oil, gas and coal”, the outlet said, as Brazil announced that it would bring forward voluntary roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and deforestation, before the next COP. It was a “frustrating end” for more than 80 countries who wanted a roadmap away from fossil fuels to be part of the formal COP agreement, BBC News said.
WHAT HAPPENED?: Carbon Brief published its in-depth analysis of all the key outcomes from COP30, spanning everything from negotiations on adaptation, just transition, gender and “Article 6” carbon trading through to a round-up of pledges on various issues. Another Carbon Brief article summed up outcomes around food, forests, land and nature. Also, Carbon Brief journalists discussed the COP in a webinar held earlier this week.
ART OF THE DEAL: The “compromise” COP30 deal – known as the “global mutirão” – “exposed deep rifts over how future climate action should be pursued”, Reuters noted. The “last-ditch” agreement was reached after fossil-fuel wording negotiations between the EU and Saudi Arabia, according to the Guardian. Meanwhile, Carbon Brief revealed the “informal” list of 84 countries said to have “opposed” the inclusion of a fossil-fuel roadmap in the mutirão decision, but analysis of the list exposed contradictions and likely errors.
UNITY, SCIENCE, SENSE: The final agreement received “lukewarm praise”, said the Associated Press. Palau ambassador Ilana Seid, who chaired the coalition of small-island nations, told the newswire: “Given the circumstances of geopolitics today, we’re actually quite pleased…The alternative is that we don’t get a decision and that would have been [worse].” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said that amid “denial, division and geopolitics”, countries “chose unity, science and economic common sense”, reported the Press Trust of India.
Around the world
- Floods and landslides killed more than 200 people in Thailand and Indonesia this week, reported Bloomberg. At least 90 people also died in recent floods in Vietnam, said Al Jazeera.
- New measures to cut energy bills and a “pay-per-mile” electric-vehicle levy were among the announcements in the UK’s budget, said Carbon Brief.
- The Group of 20 (G20) leaders signed off on a declaration “addressing the climate crisis” and other issues, reported Reuters, which had no input from the US who boycotted last week’s G20 summit in South Africa.
- Canadian prime minister Mark Carney signed a deal with the province of Alberta “centred on plans for a new heavy oil pipeline”, said the Guardian, adding that Canadian culture minister and former environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, resigned from cabinet over the deal.
- Greenpeace analysis, covered by Reuters, found that permits for new coal plants in China are “on track to fall to a four-year low” in 2025.
27
The number of hours that COP30 talks went over schedule before ending in Belém last Saturday, making it the 11th-longest UN climate summit on record, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- The risk of night-time deaths during heatwaves increased “significantly” over 2005-15 in sub-Saharan Africa | Science Advances
- Almost half of climate journalists surveyed showed “moderate to severe” symptoms of anxiety | Traumatology
- Lakes experienced “more severe” heatwaves than those in the atmosphere over the past two decades | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The key COP30 agreement – termed the “global mutirão” – contained 69 inactive verbs, which require no action from countries, compared to 32 active ones. “Recognises”, “recalls” and “acknowledges” were used far more often than more active verbs, such as “decides”, “calls” and “requests”, showed Carbon Brief analysis.
Spotlight
Nine warnings from a UK climate and nature ‘emergency’ briefing
This week, Carbon Brief’s Orla Dwyer reports from an event where experts and campaigners sounded the alarm bell on climate change and nature loss.
Naturalist and broadcaster Chris Packham urged attendees at a climate and nature “emergency briefing” in London yesterday to “listen to the science” on climate change amid a “dangerous wave of misinformation and lies”.
The “first-of-its-kind” event heard from nine experts on the links between climate change, nature loss, health, food production, economics and national security.
Event host, Prof Mike Berners-Lee from Lancaster University, called for a “World War II level of leadership” to tackle the interconnected crises.
Hundreds of people showed up, including Green Party, Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs, leader of the Greens Zack Polanski, musician Brian Eno and actress Olivia Williams.
Here is a snapshot of what the nine speakers said in their short, but stark, presentations.
Prof Kevin Anderson, professor of energy at University of Manchester
Anderson focused on the risks of a warmer world and the sliver of emissions left in the global carbon budget, noting:
“We have to eliminate fossil fuels or temperatures will just keep going up.”
He urged a “Marshall-style” plan – referencing the 1948 post-war US plan to rebuild Europe – to ramp up actions on retrofitting, public transport and electrification.
Prof Nathalie Seddon, professor of biodiversity at University of Oxford
Nature is not a “nice to have”, but rather “critical national infrastructure”, Seddon told attendees. She called for the “need to create an economy that values nature”.
Prof Paul Behrens, British Academy global professor at University of Oxford
Behrens discussed the food security risks from climate change. Impacts such as poor harvests and food price inflation are “barely acknowledge[d]” in agricultural policy, he said.
He also emphasised the “unsustainable” land use of animal agriculture, which “occupies around 85% of total agricultural land” in the UK.
Prof Tim Lenton, chair in climate change and Earth system science at Exeter University
Lenton outlined the “plenty” of evidence that parts of the Earth system are hurtling towards climate tipping points that could push them irreversibly into a new state.
He discussed the possibility of the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which he said could cause -20C winters in London. He also noted positive tipping points, such as momentum that led the UK to stop burning coal for electricity last year.
Prof Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University
One in four properties in England could be at risk of flooding by 2050, Fowler said, and winters are getting wetter.
She discussed extreme weather risks and listed the impacts of floods in recent years in Germany, Spain and Libya, adding:
“These events are not warnings of what might happen in the future. They’re actually examples of what is happening right now.”
Angela Francis, director of policy solutions at WWF-UK
Francis factchecked several claims made against climate action, such as the high cost of achieving net-zero.
She noted that the estimated cost for the UK to achieve net-zero is about £4bn per year, which is less than 0.2% of GDP.
Lieutenant general Richard Nugee, climate and security advisor
Discussing the risks climate change poses to national security, Nugee said:
“Climate change can be thought of as a threat multiplier, making existing threats worse or more frequent and introducing new threats. Climate shocks fuel global instability.”
Tessa Khan, environmental lawyer and executive director of Uplift
Khan said the rising cost of energy in the UK is “turning into a significant political risk for the energy transition”.
She discussed the cost of fossil-fuel dependency and the fact that these fuels cost money to burn, but renewable “input[s], sun or wind [are] free forever”.
Prof Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London
Montgomery discussed the health and economic benefits of climate actions, such as eating less meat and using more public transport, noting:
“The climate emergency is a health emergency – and it’s about time we started treating it as one.”
Watch, read, listen
WATER WORRIES: ABC News spoke to three Iranian women about the impacts of Tehran’s water crisis amid the “worst drought in 60 years”.
CLIMATE EFFORT: The BBC’s Climate Question podcast looked at the main outcomes from COP30 and discussed the “future of climate action” with a team of panelists.
CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR:New Scientist interviewed criminal psychologist Julia Shaw about the psychology behind environmental crimes.
Coming up
- 24 November-5 December: COP20 on international trade in endangered species of wild fauna and flora, Samarkand, Uzbekistan
- 29-30 November: First part of global youth environment assembly, Nairobi, Kenya
- 3-4 December: Second round of Egyptian parliamentary elections
- 5 December: World soil day, global
Pick of the jobs
- Aldersgate Group, head of policy | Salary: £56,650-£66,950 per year. Location: London
- Ofgem, climate resilience expert | Salary: £61,446-£86,547. Location: Cardiff, Glasgow or London
- Green Climate Fund, integrity risk management lead | Salary: $171,200. Location: Incheon, South Korea
- Isles of Scilly Wildlife Trust, project manager – seabird recovery | Salary: Up to £45,000 per year. Location: Isles of Scilly, UK
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event
Climate Change
Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents
A confused – and, at times, contradictory – story has emerged about precisely which countries and negotiating blocs were opposed to a much-discussed “roadmap” deal at COP30 on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
Carbon Brief has obtained a leaked copy of the 84-strong “informal list” of countries that, as a group, were characterised across multiple media reports as “blocking” the roadmap’s inclusion in the final “mutirão” deal across the second week of negotiations at the UN climate summit in Belém.
During the fraught closing hours of the summit, Carbon Brief understands that the Brazilian presidency told negotiators in a closed meeting that there was no prospect of reaching consensus on the roadmap’s inclusion, because there were “80 for and 80 against”.
However, Carbon Brief’s analysis of the list – which was drawn up informally by the presidency – shows that it contains a variety of contradictions and likely errors.
Among the issues identified by Carbon Brief is the fact that 14 countries are listed as both supporting and opposing the idea of including a fossil-fuel roadmap in the COP30 outcome.
In addition, the list of those said to have opposed a roadmap includes all 42 of the members of a negotiating group present in Belém – the least-developed countries (LDCs) – that has explicitly told Carbon Brief it did not oppose the idea.
Moreover, one particularly notable entry on the list, Turkey – which is co-president of COP31 – tells Carbon Brief that its inclusion is “wrong”.
Negotiating blocs
COP28, held in Dubai in 2023, had finalised the first “global stocktake”, which called on all countries to contribute to global efforts, including a “transition away from fossil fuels”.
Since then, negotiations on how to take this forward have faltered, including at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where countries were unable to agree to include this fossil-fuel transition as part of existing or new processes under the UN climate regime.
Ahead of the start of COP30, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made a surprise call for “roadmaps” on fossil-fuel transition and deforestation.
While this idea was not on the official agenda for COP30, it had been under development for months ahead of the summit – and it became a key point of discussion in Belém.
Ultimately, however, it did not become part of the formal COP30 outcome, with the Brazilian presidency instead launching a process to draw up roadmaps under its own initiative.
This is because the COP makes decisions by consensus. The COP30 presidency insisted that there was no prospect of consensus being reached on a fossil-fuel roadmap, telling closed-door negotiations that there were “80 for and 80 against”.
The list of countries supporting a roadmap as part of the COP30 outcome was obtained by Carbon Brief during the talks. Until now, however, the list of those opposed to the idea had not been revealed.
Carbon Brief understands that this second list was drawn up informally by the Brazilian presidency after a meeting attended by representatives of around 50 nations. It was then filled out to the final total of 84 countries, based on membership of negotiating alliances.
The bulk of the list of countries opposing a roadmap – some 39 nations – is made up of two negotiating blocs that opposed the proposal for divergent reasons (see below). Some countries within these blocs also held different positions on why – or even whether – they opposed the roadmap being included in the COP30 deal.
These blocs are the 22-strong Arab group – chaired in Belém by Saudi Arabia – and the 25 members of the “like-minded developing countries” (LMDCs), chaired by India.
For decades within the UN climate negotiations, countries have sat within at least one negotiating bloc rather than act in isolation. At COP30, the UN says there were 16 “active groups”. (Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not sat within any group.)
The inclusion on the “informal list” (shown in full below) of both the LMDCs and Arab group is accurate, as confirmed by the reporting of the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB), which is the only organisation authorised to summarise what has happened in UN negotiations that are otherwise closed to the media.
Throughout the fortnight of the talks, both the LMDCs and Arab group were consistent – at times together – in their resistance to proscriptive wording and commitments within any part of the COP30 deal around transitioning away from fossil fuels.
But the reasons provided were nuanced and varied and cannot be characterised as meaning both blocs simply did not wish to undertake the transition – in fact, all countries under the Paris Agreement had already agreed to this in Dubai two years ago at COP28.
However, further analysis by Carbon Brief of the list shows that it also – mistakenly – includes all of the members of the LDCs, bar Afghanistan and Myanmar, which were not present at the talks. In total, the LDCs represented 42 nations in Belém, ranging from Bangladesh and Benin through to Tuvalu and Tanzania.
Some of the LDC nations had publicly backed a fossil-fuel roadmap.
‘Not correct’
Manjeet Dhakal, lead adviser to the LDC chair, tells Carbon Brief that it is “not correct” that the LDCs, as a bloc, opposed a fossil-fuel roadmap during the COP30 negotiations.
He says that the group’s expectations, made public before COP, clearly identified transitioning away from fossil fuels as an “urgent action” to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal “within reach”. He adds:
“The LDC group has never blocked a fossil-fuel roadmap. [In fact], a few LDCs, including Nepal, have supported the idea.”
Dhakal’s statement highlights a further confusing feature of the informal list – 14 countries appear on both of the lists of supporters and opposers. This is possible because many countries sit within two or more negotiating blocs at UN climate talks.
For example, Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu are members of both the “alliance of small island states” (AOSIS) and the LDCs.
As is the case with the “informal list” of opposers, the list of supporters (which was obtained by Carbon Brief during the talks) is primarily made up of negotiating alliances.
Specifically, it includes AOSIS, the “environmental integrity group” (EIG), the “independent association of Latin America and the Caribbean” (AILAC) and the European Union (EU).
In alphabetical order, the 14 countries on both lists are: Bahrain; Bulgaria; Comoros; Cuba; Czech Republic; Guinea-Bissau; Haiti; Hungary; Kiribati; Nepal; Sierra Leone; Solomon Islands; Timor-Leste; and Tuvalu.
This obvious anomaly acts to highlight the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs on the informal list of opposers.
The list includes 37 of the 54 nations within the Africa group, which was chaired by Tanzania in Belém.
But this also appears to be a function of the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs in the list, many of which sit within both blocs.
Confusion
An overview of the talks published by the Guardian this week reported:
“Though [Brazil’s COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago] told the Guardian [on 19 November] that the divide over the [roadmap] issue could be bridged, [he] kept insisting 80 countries were against the plan, though these figures were never substantiated. One negotiator told the Guardian: ‘We don’t understand where that number comes from.’
“A clue came when Richard Muyungi, the Tanzanian climate envoy who chairs the African group, told a closed meeting that all its 54 members aligned with the 22-member Arab Group on the issue. But several African countries told the Guardian this was not true and that they supported the phaseout – and Tanzania has a deal with Saudi Arabia to exploit its gas reserves.”
Adding to the confusion, the Guardian also said two of the most powerful members of the LMDCs were not opposed to a roadmap, reporting: “China, having demurred on the issue, indicated it would not stand in the way [of a roadmap]; India also did not object.”
Writing for Climate Home News, ActionAid USA’s Brandon Wu said:
“Between rich country intransigence and undemocratic processes, it’s understandable – and justifiable – that many developing countries, including most of the Africa group, are uncomfortable with the fossil-fuel roadmap being pushed for at COP30. It doesn’t mean they are all ‘blockers’ or want the world to burn, and characterising them as such is irresponsible.
“The core package of just transition, public finance – including for adaptation and loss and damage – and phasing out fossil fuels and deforestation is exactly that: a package. The latter simply will not happen, politically or practically, without the former.”
Carbon Brief understands that Nigeria was a vocal opponent of the roadmap’s inclusion in the mutirão deal during the final hours of the closed-door negotiations, but that does not equate to it opposing a transition away from fossil fuels. This is substantiated by the ENB summary:
“During the…closing plenary…Nigeria stressed that the transition away from fossil fuels should be conducted in a nationally determined way, respecting [common, but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities].”
The “informal list” of opposers also includes three EU members – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Hungary.
The EU – led politically at the talks by climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, but formally chaired by Denmark – was reportedly at the heart of efforts to land a deal that explicitly included a “roadmap” for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Carbon Brief understands that, as part of the “informal intelligence gathering” used to compile the list, pre-existing positions on climate actions by nations were factored in rather than only counting positions expressed at Belém. For example, Hungary and the Czech Republic were reported to have been among those resisting the last-minute “hard-fought deal” by the EU on its 2040 climate target and latest Paris Agreement climate pledge.
(Note that EU members Poland and Italy did not join the list of countries supporting a fossil-fuel roadmap at COP30.)
The remaining individual nations on the informal list either have economies that are heavily dependent on fossil-fuel production (for example, Russia and Brunei Darussalam), or are, like the US, currently led by right-leaning governments resistant to climate action (for example, Argentina).
Turkey is a notable inclusion on the list because it was agreed in Belém that it will host next year’s COP31 in Antalya, but with Australia leading the negotiation process. In contrast, Australia is on the 85-strong list of roadmap supporters.
However, a spokesperson for Turkey’s delegation in Belem has told Carbon Brief that it did not oppose the roadmap at COP30 and its inclusion on the list is “wrong”.
Media characterisations
Some media reporting of the roadmap “blockers” sought to identify the key proponents.
For example, the Sunday Times said “the ‘axis of obstruction’ – Saudi Arabia, Russia and China – blocked the Belém roadmap”.
Agence France-Presse highlighted the views of a French minister who said: “Who are the biggest blockers? We all know them. They are the oil-producing countries, of course. Russia, India, Saudi Arabia. But they are joined by many emerging countries.”
Reuters quoted Vanuatu’s climate minister alleging that “Saudi Arabia was one of those opposed”.
The Financial Times said “a final agreement [was] blocked again and again by countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia”.
Bloomberg said the roadmap faced “stiff opposition from Arab states and Russia”.
Media coverage in India and China has pushed back at the widespread portrayals of what many other outlets had described as the “blockers” of a fossil-fuel roadmap.
The Indian Express reported:
“India said it was not opposed to the mention of a fossil-fuel phaseout plan in the package, but it must be ensured that countries are not called to adhere to a uniform pathway for it.”
Separately, speaking on behalf of the LMDCs during the closing plenary at COP30, India had said: “Adaptation is a priority. Our regime is not mitigation centric.”
China Daily, a state-run newspaper that often reflects the government’s official policy positions, published a comment article this week stating:
“Over 80 countries insisted that the final deal must include a concrete plan to act on the previous commitment to move beyond coal, oil, and natural gas adopted at COP28…But many delegates from the global south disagreed, citing concerns about likely sudden economic contraction and heightened social instability. The summit thus ended without any agreement on this roadmap.
“Now that the conference is over, and emotions are no longer running high, all parties should look objectively at the potential solution proposed by China, which some international media outlets wrongly painted as an opponent to the roadmap.
“Addressing an event on the sidelines of the summit, Xia Yingxian, deputy head of China’s delegation to COP30, said the narrative on transitioning away from fossil fuels would find greater acceptance if it were framed differently, focusing more on the adoption of renewable energy sources.”
Speaking to Carbon Brief at COP30, Dr Osama Faqeeha, Saudi Arabia’s deputy environment minister, refused to be drawn on whether a fossil-fuel roadmap was a red line for his nation, but said:
“I think the issue is the emissions, it’s not the fuel. And our position is that we have to cut emissions regardless.”
Neither the Arab group nor the LMDCs responded to Carbon Brief’s invitation to comment on their inclusion on the list.
The Brazilian COP30 presidency did not respond at the time of publication.
While the fossil-fuel roadmap was not part of the formal COP30 outcome, the Brazilian presidency announced in the closing plenary that it would take the idea forward under its own initiative, drawing on an international conference hosted in Colombia next year.
Corrêa do Lago told the closing plenary:
“We know some of you had greater ambitions for some of the issues at hand…As president Lula said at the opening of this COP, we need roadmaps so that humanity, in a just and planned manner, can overcome its dependence on fossil fuels, halt and reverse deforestation and mobilise resources for these purposes.
“I, as president of COP30, will therefore create two roadmaps, one on halting and reverting deforestation, another to transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner. They will be led by science and they will be inclusive with the spirit of the mutirão.
“We will convene high level dialogues, gathering key international organisations, governments from both producing and consuming countries, industry workers, scholars, civil society and will report back to the COP. We will also benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels, scheduled to take place in April in Colombia.”
Fossil-fuel roadmap
‘Supporters’
Both ‘supporter’ and ‘opposer’
‘Opposers’
Additional reporting by Daisy Dunne.
The post Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents
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