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Heat pumps are an alternative to gas boilers and wood stoves for indoor heating.

They now feature in most proposals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by mid-century in order to meet the globally agreed aim of avoiding dangerous climate change.

For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says with high confidence that net-zero energy systems will include the electrification of heating “rely[ing] substantially on heat pumps” – with a possible exception only for extreme climates.

Heat pumps significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions from building heat and are the “central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating”, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Heat pumps are also a mature technology and are very popular in countries such as Norway, Sweden and Finland, where they are the dominant heating technology. For the first time in 2022, heat pumps outsold gas boilers in the US – and they continued to do so in 2023.

Yet, in major economies such as the UK and Germany, heat pumps are the subject of hostile and misleading reporting across many mainstream media outlets.

Here, Carbon Brief factchecks 18 of the most common and persistent myths about heat pumps.

  1. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps don’t work in existing buildings.’
  2. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps only work in highly insulated buildings.’
  3. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps only work with underfloor heating.’
  4. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps won’t work in flats.’
  5. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps don’t work when it’s cold.’
  6. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps will always need a backup heating system to keep you warm.‘
  7. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps won’t keep you warm.’
  8. INCOMPLETE: ‘You will freeze during a power cut and be better off with a gas boiler.’
  9. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps are noisy.’
  10. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps cost more to run and will increase heating bills.’
  11. FALSE. ‘Turning gas to electricity to heat via a heat pump is less efficient than burning gas in a boiler.’
  12. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps will never offset the carbon emissions resulting from making them.’
  13. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps devalue properties.’
  14. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps are unaffordable.’
  15. INCOMPLETE: ‘The grid cannot cope with heat pumps.’
  16. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps don’t work with microbore piping.’
  17. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps don’t last long.’
  18. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps are new and untested technology.’

1. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps don’t work in existing buildings.’

In a recent survey in the UK, 20% of respondents said they believed that heat pumps only work in newer homes. In 2023, the Daily Telegraph even published an article with the headline: “Heat pumps won’t work in old homes, warns Bosch.”

In reality, millions of buildings of all ages have been fitted with heat pumps around the world. In fact, the UK government’s boiler upgrade scheme, which offers grants to households replacing boilers with heat pumps, only funds work in existing homes.

After conducting several case studies of old homes with “air-source” heat pumps – those that draw energy from the outside air – public body Historic England concluded in a report last year that these “work well in a range of different historic building types and uses”.

The UK government-funded “electrification of heat” project took this a step further, stating that “there is no property type or architectural era that is unsuitable for a heat pump”.

Results from the project also indicate that there is no significant variation in performance based on house age.

Tweet from Richard Lowes (@heatpolicyrich): Trawling through some @isoenergy heat pump retrofit case studies and the most OUTRAGEOUS is this 11th century Norman church in Lympne, Kent

These findings are not exclusive to the UK. Research organisation the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany carried out extensive field testing and monitoring of heat pumps in existing buildings and concluded that they worked reliably and without problems.

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2. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps only work in highly insulated buildings.’

A common – but false – claim is that heat pumps require extremely well insulated buildings to perform properly. For example, Mattie Brignal, senior money reporter at the Daily Telegraph, wrote in October 2023 that good insulation was “crucial” for heat pumps to work:

“Effective insulation is crucial for heat pumps to function optimally because the devices operate at lower temperatures than gas boilers.”

“Heat pumps will never work in Britain,” he claimed, partly because of the UK’s poorly insulated housing. It is indeed true that the UK has one of the worst housing stocks in Europe when it comes to insulation, as data from smart thermostat company tado shows.

Heat pumps can work in any building if sized, designed and installed correctly. Many uninsulated homes and buildings are already heated to comfortable temperatures with heat pumps, as shown across multiple case studies, including an uninsulated stone church.

A building loses heat through the walls, the windows and the roof when it is colder outside than inside, as shown by the stylised arrows in the figure below. The upper panels show an outdoor temperature of 10C, coloured purple, and an indoor temperature of 20C, coloured red.

Without insulation, shown in the left-hand panels, heat loss is higher – indicated by the larger arrows – and the heat input must similarly be increased, in order to maintain a steady indoor temperature.

At lower outside temperatures – shown in the lower panels – more heat is being lost, for a given level of home insulation. Yet as long as the heat input from a heating system is equal to the heat loss, the building will still retain its indoor temperature.

This means that for a poorly insulated home, a larger heat pump is needed, just as a larger gas boiler would be needed to reach the required heat input. For any home, the system is usually designed for the coldest day of the year.

Uninsulated buildings in colder temperatures need larger heat inputs to stay warm
Four graphics showing heat loss without insulation (left panels) and with insulation (right). Stylised heat loss, from a house heated to 20C with an outdoor temperature of 10C (upper panels) or -10C (lower panels), is shown by the red arrows. Source: Based on an earlier figure by Stefan Holzheu.

Field research from Germany confirms this stylised representation. One of the longest running field studies of heat pumps in renovated properties shows that extensive renovations and insulation upgrades are not necessary to install a heat pump. Good fabric efficiency will keep running costs down, but this is also true for homes heated by gas and oil boilers.

Heat pumps do usually operate at lower “flow temperatures” to maximise efficiency, which means the water pumped to the radiators in a house will have a temperature closer to 50C or below. Although gas boilers also operate more efficiently at lower flow temperatures, they are typically set to provide water at much higher temperatures of 70C or more.

This means the radiators connected to a heat pump system will be cooler, potentially requiring larger radiators or underfloor heating to achieve the same indoor temperature. Research shows, however, that radiators are often oversized to begin with – and that, as a result, not all radiators may need to be replaced.

Moreover, the market already offers high-temperature heat pumps that can reach flow temperatures of 65C and higher. These can be operated with existing radiators.

Furthermore, the UK government’s electrification of heat UK demonstration project showed that the efficiency of high-temperature heat pumps nears that of standard heat pumps, because they only need to run at higher flow temperatures on the coldest days.

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3. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps only work with underfloor heating.’

In a recent survey commissioned by the energy supplier Good Energy, 15% of respondents said they believed heat pumps would require underfloor heating.

This is incorrect. Heat pumps work very well with radiators, too, although the lower flow temperature required by underfloor heating means this radiant heating can make heat pumps work more efficiently.

In some cases, the radiators may need upgrading. However, it has been common practice in recent years for heating installers to oversize radiators to apply large safety margins for providing sufficient heat.

If insulation is installed at a later date, the original radiators will also be larger than required. Some radiators may, therefore, need to be replaced to install a heat pump, but this will depend on the property.

Plenty of properties listed on open-source platform Heat Pump Monitor, which allows individuals to upload key information about their own installations, have heat pumps and old radiators, but no underfloor heating.

Similarly, many properties in the Electrification of Heat project had radiators.

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4. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps won’t work in flats.’

The Daily Telegraph reported in October 2023 that “many flats are unsuitable for heat pumps”.

Similarly, in August 2023, the Daily Mail reported the comments of Climate Change Committee chief executive Chris Stark saying it is “very difficult” to install heat pumps in flats.

Finding space for the outside units of air-source heat pumps can indeed be a challenge, when it comes to multi-apartment buildings. Solutions for this problem exist, however, as documented in case studies of blocks of flats using a variety of heat pump technologies including ground, air- and water-source heat pumps.

In the UK, Kensa Contracting has successfully installed ground-source heat pumps in high-rise buildings with hundreds of flats, for example. In this case, a shared “ground loop” circulates water to gather warmth from beneath the ground and this is piped into individual flats via a small, in-home unit, which brings the water up to temperature.

Air-to-air heat pumps – similar to air conditioning units – are also an option for flats.

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5. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps don’t work when it’s cold.’

A common criticism of heat pumps is that they purportedly do not work in cold weather. For example, Scottish businessman and Labour peer Lord Haughey was quoted last year in the Times saying that heat pumps cannot cope with the cold climate in Scotland. This story was also widely reported in the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Express.

However, the Nordic region – particularly Sweden, Finland and Norway – suggests otherwise. These three countries have the highest heat pump sales per 1,000 households on the continent. Sweden, Norway and Finland also have the coldest climates in Europe.

In all three countries, there are now more than 40 heat pumps per 100 households, more than in any other country in the world. Heat pump installations started to pick up 20 years ago and have significantly reduced carbon emissions in those countries.

Indeed, European countries with the coldest winters have the highest rates of heat pump sales, as shown in the figure below.

Heat pumps are more common in Europe's coldest countries
Number of heat pumps sold per 1,000 households in 2022 versus average January temperatures. Source: EHPA.

Some also raise questions about how well heat pumps perform when temperatures drop below freezing. For example, climate-sceptic commentator Ross Clark claimed in the Daily Telegraph in January 2024 that “heat pumps seem destined to make us freeze” and that “there is no point in telling us we’ve got to get to net-zero if you can’t tell us how we cope when we reach sub-zero”.

Real-world evidence contradicts such claims. Various field studies have collected performance data of heat pumps, for example on air-source heat pumps in Switzerland, Germany, the UK, the US, Canada and China.

Indeed, heat pumps remain more than twice as efficient as gas boilers, even at temperatures well below freezing, according to peer-reviewed analysis by the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP).

The analysis found that while the coefficient of performance (COP), which is a measure of how efficiently a heat pump operates, declines as outside temperature falls, it remains high.

The COP compares the amount of energy put into a heating system with the amount that it puts out as useful heat, to warm the home. A COP of 1 means that each unit of energy used to run the system returns 1 unit of heat – corresponding to 100% efficiency.

Fossil fuel boilers are never 100% efficient because some of the heat is lost with flue gases. Instead, gas boilers typically operate at around 85% efficiency, equivalent to a COP of 0.85.

In contrast, heat pumps use electricity to gather extra heat from the outside air or ground, meaning they typically generate at least 2 units of heat for each unit of input. This means they can have a COP of 2 or above, meaning they are 200%, 300% or even more efficient.

As the graph below shows, even on the coldest winter days when temperatures drop to as low as -20C, a standard air-source heat pump can still operate with a COP of around 2. This is significantly higher than fossil fuel and electric boilers, which operate at COPs of less than or equal to 1, respectively.

Heat pumps remain more than twice as efficient as gas boilers, even at very low temperatures
Air-source heat pump performance gathered in field testing studies from “mild” cold climates in five countries: Canada, China, Germany, Switzerland, the US and the UK. Source: Duncan Gibb et al. (2023).

For locations with regular frigid temperatures, cold-climate heat pumps are available on the market today. These heat pumps use refrigerants that have a lower boiling point than standard models and are suitable for winters down to -26C.

However, for very cold temperatures far below freezing (-20C or below), systems with some form of backup may be needed. In the Nordic countries this is common.

Ground-source heat pumps may also be useful in colder climates, because the ground retains heat over winter and very rarely reaches such low temperatures as the air.

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6. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps will always need a backup heating system to keep you warm.‘

It is often claimed that heat pumps require a secondary heating system to provide backup.

For example, a 2023 Daily Mail article reported the experience of one homeowner who had installed backup oil-fired heating to “kick in during winter when the [heat] pumps don’t work efficiently”, while another said they needed backup to make their home “cosy again”.

Yet some 79% of the homes monitored under the UK’s electrification of heat project have no backup heating system and use a heat pump to provide all of their hot water and space heating needs.

(Some homes involved in the project trialled “hybrid” heating systems, with heat pumps providing heating and a gas boiler providing hot water and extra heating capacity.)

As explained above, a complementary heat source might be needed in very cold climates where winter temperatures routinely fall below -20C. But, generally, this does not apply to the UK and other temperate countries.

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7. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps won’t keep you warm.’

A variation on the false claim that heat pumps are unable to operate in cold climates is the similarly inaccurate idea that they will not be able to keep homes sufficiently warm.

“You can’t find an engineer prepared to install one of the devices in your home because, in all honesty, they know it wouldn’t actually keep you warm,” claimed Ross Clark in the Daily Telegraph last year.

There is no evidence to support the claim that heat pumps will not keep homes warm. If designed and installed correctly, heat pumps can provide the same levels of comfort as a fossil fuel heating system, or more.

In a survey carried out in the UK on behalf of charity Nesta, more than 80% of people stated that they are satisfied with the ability of their heat pump to provide space and hot water heating. This is a satisfaction level similar to households with gas boilers, Nesta said.

More than 80% of homes were satisfied with their heat pump's ability to keep them warm
Shares of survey respondents, showing the percentage that were very satisfied (dark blue), fairly satisfied (light blue), not very satisfied (light red), not at all satisfied (red), and those that don’t know (dark grey) or for whom the question was not applicable (light grey). Source: Nesta.

Evidence from other countries provides further support. Some 81% of respondents to a pan-European survey in 2022 indicated that their level of comfort had improved after getting a heat pump.

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8. INCOMPLETE: ‘You will freeze during a power cut and be better off with a gas boiler.’

In another article attacking heat pumps, published in January 2024, climate-sceptic columnist Ross Clark warned in the Daily Telegraph that “a power cut lasting more than a few hours will be a very serious matter for communities, which face being totally cut off, shivering”.

Similarly, the Daily Express states heat pump owners have been issued a “horror warning over blackouts”. It quotes Erica Malkin from the Stove Industry Alliance who instead suggests “having a wood-burning stove would certainly mean that people have the ability to heat their homes in the event of a blackout”.

Residential heat pump covered in snow
Residential heat pump covered in snow. Credit: Island Images / Alamy Stock Photo

It is correct that a heat pump will not work during a power cut. But the same is the case for gas boilers, which require electricity for controls and to pump hot water through your radiators.

Boiler Central, an online boiler sales company, states on its website that “most” boilers are unable to function without power, such that power cuts render them “temporarily useless”:

“Most modern boilers are reliant on electricity to function, so when the power goes out, your boiler will not be able to heat your home. Without electricity, most of the main components like the thermostat, central heating pumps, and valves will have no power therefore causing your boiler not working properly, rendering your boiler temporarily useless.”

It is also worth noting that the UK’s power grid is very reliable. Most customers only experience a few minutes of outages each year, as data by the energy regulator Ofgem indicates. The same is true in Germany and most other developed countries.

(In the US, power outages are significantly longer – lasting a total of 5 hours on average in 2022 – mainly caused by falling trees.)

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9. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps are noisy.’

Another of the false arguments frequently thrown at heat pumps is the idea that they are “too loud” to be installed in many homes – or that the noise they create is a nuisance.

For example, the Daily Telegraph reported – inaccurately – in November 2023 that “heat pumps are too loud to be installed in millions of homes in England under the government’s noise guidelines”.

This headline was contradicted by the experts cited in the article. Consultants Apex Acoustics, who led the research, released a statement saying that the headline claim was “an exaggeration” and that, contrary to the article, noise issues were not “insurmountable”. It said:

“The headline claims heat pumps are ‘too noisy’ for millions of British homes. This is an exaggeration. While noise is a valid concern with heat pumps that needs to be addressed, technology improvements and proper installation can mitigate noise issues in most homes. The article presents noise as an insurmountable problem, which is not the case.”

The Daily Telegraph article also claims there will be a “rise in noise complaints” as more heat pumps are installed.

In reality, UK data shows noise complaints about heat pumps are very low. There are only around 100 noise complaints for every 300,000 installations – a rate of 0.03% – according to a survey by noise experts cited in a research paper by Apex Acoustics.

Government-commissioned research confirms this. It says there is a “low incidence of ASHP [air-source heat pump] noise complaints” and adds: “These arose due to poor quality installations, including location and proximity factors.”

Concluding its response to the Daily Telegraph, Apex Acoustics states that “the article spins isolated concerns and worst-case scenarios into an exaggerated narrative against heat pumps”.

It is true that air-source heat pumps generate a certain degree of noise, due to the fan that circulates ambient air around the outdoor unit. But they can be very quiet and “sound emissions from heat pumps were not reported as noticeable” by the majority of respondents in the study commissioned by the UK government. 

In the UK there are strict noise limits on heat pumps. The legal noise limit for heat pumps in the UK is 42 decibels. It is measured from the nearest neighbouring property and means the noise limit at the boundary to a neighbour’s property is 42 decibels. This is a similar volume to a refrigerator.

Heat pumps are no more noisy than a fridge
Noise scale showing different sounds and where they rank in terms of decibels, including a heat pump sitting in the moderate (40-60dB) range. Source: RNID, Zhang (2016).

Ground-source heat pumps create no noise outside of the home, given that there is no fan unit required. Inside a home, ground-source heat pumps do not make more noise than a standard fridge or freezer, says a review by the Federation of Master Builders.

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10. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps cost more to run and will increase heating bills.’

One of the most widespread lines of attack against heat pumps is that they are expensive to run. On the contrary, thanks to their high efficiency, well-designed systems can save UK households hundreds of pounds a year, even though electricity is more expensive than gas.

They offer even greater relative savings in other countries, where electricity prices compared to gas prices are lower.

In a YouTube video from the “Skill Builder” channel, watched more than 2.2m times, presenter Roger Bisby claims “when you look at people’s fuel bills, running a heat pump is roughly three times more expensive than running a gas boiler”. This statement is false.

The running costs of heat pumps relative to gas boilers depend on energy prices and the efficiency of the heat pump installation.

It is a fact that electricity prices are higher than gas prices. Under the UK energy price cap as of March 2024, each unit of electricity is four times more expensive than gas.

However, heat pumps use about 3-5 times less energy compared to a gas boiler. This is because a heat pump turns one unit of electricity into 2.5-5 units of heat.

This efficiency is measured by the seasonal coefficient of performance (SCoP). The SCoP provides a metric to measure the efficiency of a heat pump over the course of a year, rather than the COP which relates to a single moment in time. It measures the total amount of heat produced in a year, compared with the total amount of electricity consumed.

For example, a SCoP of three indicates that for every unit of electricity consumed in a year, the heat pump provides three units of heat. A SCoP of 4 means that the heat pump delivers four times more heat than the electricity input.

Gas boiler control panel
Gas boiler control panel. Credit: Hennell / Alamy Stock Photo

In addition, if the heat pump is also used to produce hot water, households can save £110 per year by disconnecting from the gas grid and no longer paying the gas “standing charge”.

In a household paying standard unit prices under the March 2024 UK energy price cap, a heat pump with a SCoP of more than 3 will achieve cost parity with the running costs of an 85% efficient gas boiler.

Under the electrification of heat project, the central estimate (median) SCoP was 2.9. At this level of efficiency, the yearly heating costs to run a heat pump on the current standard tariff would be £25 higher than an 85% gas boiler. Yet much higher heat pump efficiencies can and have been achieved.

HeatGeek, an organisation that trains heat pump installers, reports that installations by those it has trained achieve SCoPs of 4. With a SCoP of 4, households on a standard tariff would save 25% on their heating bills compared to an average gas boiler.

This may change depending on how prices develop in the future, but government estimates suggest that unit prices for electricity will fall relative to those for gas. In other words, the relative running costs of heat pumps will improve versus gas boilers, if those projections are broadly correct.

In the meantime, heat pump users can lower their operating costs through using dedicated tariffs. Some energy companies offer time-varying prices. For example, Octopus Energy’s “Agile” tariff averaged 17 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) over December 2023 to February 2024. This was significantly below the price cap of 27p/kWh from January to March and 25 p/kWh from April to June 2024.

Octopus also offers a special heat pump tariff called “Octopus Cosy”. From 1 April 2024, this will cost 19.6p/kWh, according to Octopus Energy.

Energy supplier OVO also offers a new heat pump tariff of 15p/kWh, called “Heat Pump Plus”, which reduces the unit price by 44% compared to the price cap. (Note that the OVO offering is contingent on working with heat pump accreditation scheme Heat Geek that only covers part of the market.)

OVO also states that, currently, the offering is limited to the first 100 customers who sign up. Whether or not the OVO offering will be available in the future and, if so, in what form is uncertain.

For a UK home on a given energy tariff, the running costs for a heat pump fall as the system gets more efficient (higher SCoP). This is illustrated in the figure below, showing that a home with a heat pump on the standard tariff for April to June 2024 would have lower running costs than for an 85% gas boiler if the SCoP is 3 or above.

The equivalent figures under a range of different energy tariffs are shown by the curved lines. While the figure includes a line for a 92% efficient gas boiler – the rating given on the label of many modern condensing boilers – data from real homes suggests 85% is more typical.

Heat pumps can save UK homes hundreds of pounds a year
Annual running cost of heat pumps and gas boilers, £, as a function of system efficiency, SCoP. Gas boilers and heat pump standard tariff use the April-June 2024 price cap. Figure based on an earlier methodology updated with the latest energy price data. Source: RAP.

This analysis shows that homes heated with gas boilers could cut their heating bills in half with a heat pump, if they use the Octopus Agile or OVO tariffs, and if their heat pumps have SCoPs of 4.0 and 3.7, respectively.

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11. FALSE. ‘Turning gas to electricity to heat via a heat pump is less efficient than burning gas in a boiler.’

A common misunderstanding is that it would be more efficient to burn gas in a domestic gas boiler, rather than converting it into electricity at a power station and using the electricity to run a heat pump instead.

For example, Conservative MP John Redwood tweeted in March 2024 that this would mean “we end up burning more gas in a power station instead of in gas boilers”.

This is false. A standard 300% efficient heat pump (SCoP of 3) would be able to deliver the same amount of warmth as an average gas boiler while cutting gas demand by two-fifths, even if running on 100% gas-fired electricity.

In a more realistic scenario taking into account the way the UK actually generates electricity, the same heat pump would cut gas demand – and the resulting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – by at least three-quarters over the next 15 years.

The late Prof Sir David MacKay, former chief scientific adviser to the then-Department of Energy and Climate Change, explained this clearly back in 2008, in his celebrated book “Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air”:

“Heat pumps are superior in efficiency to condensing boilers, even if the heat pumps are powered by electricity from a power station burning natural gas.”

This is because a heat pump with a SCoP of 3 uses one unit of electricity to make three of heat. As a result, burning one unit of gas in a power plant at 48.3% average efficiency and taking into account the 8% of electricity lost during transmission results in 1.3 units of heat from a heat pump.

In comparison, a gas boiler in the UK typically operates at 85% efficiency, as shown by the grey area in the left-hand bars in the chart below. This means one unit of gas for heating (left column) results in 0.85 units of heat (second from left).

As a result, a 300% efficient heat pump (second column from right, SCoP 3), even if running 100% on gas-generated electricity (rightmost column), needs about two-fifths less gas to make the same amount of heat (“saving”, yellow hatching).

Shifting from gas boilers to electric heat pumps would cut gas demand by two-fifths, even running on 100% gas power
Gas demand, kWh, for home heating using an 85% efficient gas boiler (left-hand bars) versus an electric heat pump system (right hand bars) with an efficiency of 300% (SCoP 3) using electricity generated at a 48% efficient gas-fired power station, after 8% line losses. “Wasted” energy refers to waste heat during combustion. “Ambient” energy is taken from the outside air. The overall gas saving is hatched yellow. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

In reality, instead of running on 100% gas-fired electricity, heat pumps would run on the current electricity mix. In the UK, the share of fossil fuels (black) in total electricity generation was 33% in 2023, as shown in the figure below.

Fossil fuels met a record-low 33% of UK electricity needs in 2023
Share of UK electricity generation by source, %, 1920-2023. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

It is also important to note that the share of gas generation in the electricity mix will decline over the coming years. This means that a heat pump would cut CO2 emissions by 77-86% over 15 years compared with a gas boiler, based on UK government guidance.

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12. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps will never offset the carbon emissions resulting from making them.’

As with electric vehicles, solar panels or wind turbines, the factories making heat pumps need raw materials and energy, which lead to CO2 emissions.

This results in another common misunderstanding that the CO2 saved by the heat pump during operation will be cancelled out by the emissions created during manufacturing.

A typical response on Twitter when posting about heat pumps is along these lines: “Ripping out a perfectly well functioning gas boiler before the end of its natural life and replacing it with a heat pump is misguided. It won’t reduce much carbon.”

The perception that it makes sense to use a gas boiler until the end of its life before installing a heat pump is widespread. It is based on the belief that the “embodied” carbon emissions of a heat pump are higher than any carbon savings during operation.

Despite the intuitive appeal of this belief, detailed analysis shows it is incorrect. In fact, replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump would save 25-28 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) over a 15-year period, a reduction of more than three-quarters.

According to one peer-reviewed study, it takes 1,563kg of CO2 equivalent (kgCO2e) to manufacture a domestic heat pump. This figure – 1.6tCO2e – can be compared with annual per capita emissions in the UK of 5.6tCO2e in 2023.

The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE) has provided new guidance on embodied carbon, which gives a similar result. Using the CIBSE figures, for a heat pump with a capacity of 7 kilowatts (kW), we can assume embodied carbon of around 1,500kgCO2e – slightly more than 200kgCO2e per kW of capacity.

Now let us compare this to a typical gas boiler. Embodied emissions of the boiler are ignored in the calculation of gas boiler emissions, as we assume the gas boiler is already in place. What we are interested in is how quickly a heat pump install will offset its embodied carbon.

The central estimate for annual gas consumption per household is 12,100 kilowatt hours (kWh), excluding the 2.4% of gas used for cooking. Per kWh of gas used, the boiler emits 183gCO2 based on the UK government’s green book guidance. That is 2,209kgCO2e per year. If we assume the gas boiler runs for another 15 years, it will result in total operational emissions of 33,134kgCO2e.

For comparison, a heat pump has significantly lower operational emissions. Using the more conservative “marginal” emission factors from green book guidance and a SCoP of three, the total operational emissions over 15 years from 2023-2037 are expected to be 6,153kgCO2e.

(Using marginal emission factors assume the heat pump is powered by the marginal source of electricity, which is the last power plant that needs to be switched on to meet overall demand. At present, this is usually a gas plant.)

For average green book emission factors, the heat pump would emit 3,242kgCO2e. Using CIBSE figures for the embodied carbon in its manufacture, the total emissions associated with the new heat pump over 15 years would reach 7,653kgCO2e for marginal and 4,742kgCO2e for average emission factors.

This is a saving of 25,481-28,392kgCO2e compared with the gas boiler (25-28tCO2e).

Overall then, replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump would cut emissions by 77-86%, including the embodied emissions from manufacturing the heat pump. This means the heat pump would offset its embodied carbon after 13 months.

Replacing a gas boiler in the UK with a new heat pump would cut emissions by 77-86%
Cumulative emissions from heating a home in the UK with an existing gas boiler or a new heat pump, 2023-2037, tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) including emissions embodied in the manufacturing of the heat pump. Source: Author calculations.

Even under the unrealistic and extreme assumption that manufacturing a heat pump entails 10 times more embodied carbon than thought, it would still generate emissions savings of 36-45% over 15 years when replacing a gas boiler.

Additionally, the emissions estimate for gas excludes upstream emissions associated with gas extraction, processing and transport. Applying a higher estimate of 210kgCO2e/kWh to account for the upstream emissions results in higher carbon savings of 80-87% for a heat pump, compared to an existing gas boiler.

In conclusion: the embodied emissions from a heat pump are offset after a few months. Over the lifetime of the appliance, heat pumps save considerable amounts of carbon emissions compared to a gas boiler.

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13. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps devalue properties.’

A common myth suggests that installing a heat pump will devalue your property. For example, an article in the Daily Express from 2022 suggested that “homeowners who are forced to rip out their gas boiler and replace it with eco-friendly heat pumps will see the value of the home collapse”.

The evidence suggests the opposite: heat pumps increase the value of properties. Research from the US found that “residences with an air source heat pump enjoy a 4.3–7.1% (or $10,400–17,000) price premium on average”.

UK research has shown that a heat pump could add between 1.7% and 3.0% to the value of an average home. Estate agent Savills also reports that buyers pay a premium for homes with heat pumps.

Based on the average UK house price in December 2023, some £285,000, this implies a price premium of £4,800-£8,600, which amounts to a significant proportion of the cost of installing a heat pump in the first place.

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14. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps are unaffordable.’

The upfront cost of heat pumps is a frequently cited issue with the technology.

For example, the Daily Telegraph said in a September 2023 article:

“The main barrier to installing these devices for most homes is the disproportionately large upfront cost when compared to traditional heating systems.”

Similarly, yet another Ross Clark comment for the Daily Telegraph – under the headline “The great heat pump hype is almost dead” – said they were “horrendously expensive to install”.

It is true that heat pumps are more expensive to buy than gas boilers.

In 2023, the average installation cost of an air source heat pump in the UK was £12,368, according to MCS data. This compares with £2,500-3,000 for a gas boiler, according to the UK government. A recent report by the National Audit Office concluded that heat pumps have seen a 6% real-terms cost reduction compared to 2021.

The UK government offers subsidies for heat pumps of £7,500 per installation under the boiler upgrade scheme. This is an increase from the previous level of £5,000, leading to a surge in interest, as shown in the figure below.

(The number of applications for heat pump vouchers in January 2024 was 39% higher than a year earlier, the government says.)

Interest in the boiler upgrade scheme surged since it was increased in 2023
The number of boiler upgrade scheme voucher applications received from May 2022 through to January 2024. Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

Some companies now offer heat pumps for less than £3,000 after the grant, a cost similar to a new gas boiler.

Most forecasts are for heat pump installation costs to decline in the future, according to a systematic review of the evidence by the UK Energy Research Centre. The majority of forecasts suggest a reduction in total installed costs of around 20-25% by 2030, it found.

Crucially, while heat pumps currently have relatively high upfront costs, they are expected to be the most cost-effective way to decarbonise heating.

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15. INCOMPLETE: ‘The grid cannot cope with heat pumps.’

Another common myth about heat pumps – as for electric vehicles – is that their widespread adoption would be catastrophic for the electricity grid.

For example, the Daily Express published an article in 2022 titled: “Heat pump hell: Owners sent horror warning over boiler alternatives amid blackout threat.”

The article cites Erica Malkin from the Stove Industry Alliance, the trade association for UK stove manufacturers, installers and retailers. She claimed that the grid may not be able to cope with heat pumps and there could be power outages if they are widely rolled out.

Similarly, a February 2024 comment for the Sunday Telegraph by omnipresent climate-sceptic columnist Ross Clark asked “at a time when politicians want millions more of us to be driving electric cars and heating our homes with heat pumps…how will we keep the lights on?”

Clark also claimed that the plan to electrify heating and transport will “put us all in the dark” and that “the UK is much closer to blackouts than anyone dares to admit”.

In an unrealistic scenario where all UK homes switched to heat pumps overnight, in many areas the electricity grid would indeed struggle. Yet the transition to heat pumps will take decades, not just a couple of years.

This gives the electricity network companies, the future system operator, the energy suppliers and the energy regulator Ofgem time to adjust.

In its latest assessment of UK infrastructure needs, official government advisor the National Infrastructure Commission points to the rapid transformation of the power system in the past. This suggests the UK can build the infrastructure needed to electrify heating within the timescales required, it says.

Moreover, although not widely known, UK electricity demand has fallen by 18% over the last two decades. This has created some space on the grid for demand growth.

The factors driving the drop include product energy efficiency regulations, energy-efficient lighting – which has cut peak demand by the equivalent of roughly two nuclear plants alone – environmentally conscious consumers and economic restructuring, including offshoring energy-intensive industries.

National Grid is well aware of the needed investment in the grid and is planning for heat pumps (and electric vehicles) to be connected. It says it is confident that electrification of home heating can be delivered in the UK.

Distribution network operators, who manage local grids and transmit electricity to individual customers, started to develop heat pump strategies a few years ago.

The amount of unused grid capacity in the distribution grid varies by area. In some parts of the country, there is no need for grid upgrades.

Research carried out on behalf of the UK government found that in rural areas of Scotland, 36-59% of the grid would require upgrades if all heating was electrified.

More recent research predicts that peak heat demand from heat pumps will be 8% lower than for gas heating, because heat pumps are designed to deliver heat consistently over longer periods rather than in short bursts.

In addition, it found that the maximum “heat ramp rate” – the speed at which heating loads increase prior to peak periods – will be 67% lower compared to gas heating.

An important solution for minimising the required grid investments and consumer costs is demand flexibility, or the ability to shift demand to periods when electricity is cheap and the pressure on the grid is lower.

It has been demonstrated that heat pumps can provide demand flexibility to support the grid. This can mean heating buildings slightly before peak periods and ramping down heat pump output during the peak, without a noticeable loss in comfort. It can also mean using “heat batteries” and thermal storage to absorb cheaper electricity when available.

The question of energy system reliability under a net-zero pathway has been looked at extensively by the Committee on Climate Change and the Royal Society. Those assessments found that with an appropriate technology mix, it is possible to electrify much of the UK’s heating at the same time as ensuring reliability of supply.

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16. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps don’t work with microbore piping.’

The Daily Express reported in 2021 that “any homes with microbore pipework looking to install a heat pump…could result in huge costs and major disruption to installing additional equipment. All pipework throughout the properties might also need replacing.”

The article was based on comments from the Heating and Hot Water Industry Council, which, among other organisations, represents boiler companies.

Microbore pipework is a smaller type of pipework often used in homes to transport hot water to radiators. It is a generic term for pipes which measure under 15mm in diameter and are usually made of either plastic or copper.

The lower diameter means it is harder to run hot water around the system quickly.

Heat pump heating systems typically use higher flow rates, in combination with lower flow temperatures, in order to maximise efficiency.

As a result, microbore piping is not ideal for heat pumps. Yet it can still be possible to keep some microbore pipes and still install a heat pump, as explained by Heat Geek.

There are even examples of homes with microbore piping that have had heat pumps installed successfully. Heat pump installer Aira explains how a home with microbore can still benefit from a heat pump, with the right adjustments.

In conclusion, it is correct that microbore pipes are not always ideal for heat pumps. But it is incorrect to say that heat pumps will not work with microbore piping.

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17. FALSE: ‘Heat pumps don’t last long.’

Despite persistent claims to the contrary on social media, heat pumps can last a couple decades or even longer. The UK government assumes a lifetime of 20 years in its official impact assessment for heat pump subsidies.

Analysis of field data from the US, collected between 2001 and 2007 by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, concluded that air-to-air heat pumps last on average 15 years – and since then, the quality of the technology has improved.

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18. INCOMPLETE: ‘Heat pumps are new and untested technology.’

In a February 2024 article about Scotland’s plans to roll out heat pumps, the Herald reported that the GMB trade union had tabled a motion at the Scottish Labour Party conference against “forcing onto households untested systems such as heat pumps”.

(The “b” in GMB historically stood for “boilermakers”.)

Heat pumps are, however, a very mature technology and have been around for more than 100 years. The first heat pump as we know it today was built by Austrian engineer Peter von Rittinger in 1856. Heat pumps were installed in peoples’ homes many decades ago.

A heat pump was installed in the City Hall of Zurich in 1938 and was not replaced until 2001. The first heat pump in the UK was installed in Norwich in 1945 by John Sumner, the city electrical engineer for Norwich.

Across the world, there are close to 200m heat pumps in operation today.

Diagram illustrating how heat in the earth and water can provide heating for homes and factories
Diagram illustrating how heat in the earth and water can provide heating for homes and factories. Credit: Chronicle / Alamy Stock Photo

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The post Factcheck: 18 misleading myths about heat pumps appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Factcheck: 18 misleading myths about heat pumps

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Climate Change

The Carbon Brief Interview: UK Climate Change Committee’s Emma Pinchbeck

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Emma Pinchbeck has been the chief executive of the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) since November 2024.

The committee is a statutory body created under the Climate Change Act 2008 and is the official adviser to the UK government on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

In this role, the CCC delivers regular progress reports to parliament and advises the government on the level of future targets to cut the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Previously, Pinchbeck was the chief executive of Energy UK, the trade association for the nation’s energy companies.

  • On the UK’s net-zero progress: “[A] 50% reduction in emissions is pretty good going…the Climate Change Act has demonstrably worked.”
  • On how the UK has cut emissions: “It’s not from exporting or offshoring emissions. It’s largely from displacing coal with renewables.”
  • On what 2050 could look like: “I think it’s about keeping the stuff that we really love. And then making the stuff we don’t love better.”
  • On the household impacts: “We’re pretty sure that a household with [clean technologies] in 2050 will be saving money, relative to a world where we stay dependent on fossil fuels.”
  • On failing to reach net-zero: “Something that is in the memories of people in the 1970s as a one-off [heatwave] is going to be very common for our children.”
  • On opposition threats to the Climate Change Act: “Whenever we’re doing our advice, we try and think about…how it reflects the priorities of different political parties.”
  • On the UK’s high energy costs: “Over 80% of the rise over the last 10 years in energy bills has been about the price of gas.”
  • On technology choices: “We’re an ‘all-of-the-above’ country, and I think that’s a good thing…the most resilient energy systems are those where you have a mix.”
  • On the upcoming renewable auction: “We’re looking at that relative cost the whole time…I’m still extremely confident that a decarbonised energy system is cheaper than the counterfactual fossil-fuel one.”
  • On decarbonising industry: “There should be a really vibrant future for our industrial sector…This positioning of ‘its industrialisation or its net-zero’ is wrong.”
  • On the seventh carbon budget: “What exactly [the budget] looks like is down to parliamentarians and government [to] hash out.”
  • On communicating on climate: “I think [the British are] natural environmentalists…I think we can talk to them more about why we’re doing this. I think we might have forgotten to do that, actually.”
  • On climate misinformation: “Something that comes back in our social research is a desire for accurate information and particularly from policymakers.”
  • On public communication campaigns: “The ones from the 1960s…[are] also quite punchy.”
  • On talking to children about climate: “I’m aware that some of the loss sits with me, not with them. They will not have memories of how many butterflies there used to be.”

Listen to this interview:

Carbon Brief: Well, thanks very much for joining us today, Emma. I wanted to start with a kind of big question. The UK’s emissions are now a little more than 50% below 1990 levels and we’ve got about 25 years to get to the net-zero target by 2050. How would you say the UK is doing overall and why?

Emma Pinchbeck: Well, [a] 50% reduction in emissions is pretty good going. I think that’s the first thing to say, is that the Climate Change Act has demonstrably worked. And two important things; the pace of emissions doubled after the introduction of the Climate Change Act and also those emissions reductions have come from what I call “real change in the economy”.

So it’s not from changing patterns of, say, consumption emissions. It’s not from exporting or offshoring emissions. It’s largely from displacing coal with renewables – and also the magical thing is that it is coal to renewables. It’s not gone coal-gas-renewables either, which is what we thought it would do. So there’s a good story there in terms of the governance and how the Climate Change Act has worked.

I think also what’s important is that it was a technology-led process and there’s a lot of flexibility in the act. And so that in a coal-to-renewable shift, it’s probably not what we’d have all banked on when we were writing the Climate Change Act in 2008 or when they were writing the Climate Change Act. And so we think about that, if you look forward, you’re looking to replicate the successes of that in other bits of the economy now. We’ve done power, largely. I think it’s about heat in particular, but also transport. And then you start getting into trickier areas of the economy, where it is less about an energy transition and more into land use, things like offsets and removals.

But I think the overall story is similar, in that you set out a long-term objective, 10 years out. So, legislate the seventh carbon budget, and then try and invest in the technologies that you’ve got to deliver emissions reduction, try and make them as cheap as possible, try and make them as attractive as possible for people, and then do the tricky stuff.

And what we’ve said in the progress report is that the government needs to have more thinking on heat. We need to start planting trees, because it takes 25 years to grow a tree, and we need to start investing in the next wave of novel technologies. So the kind of surprises in the pathway, and there is a lot of focus on clean power, but it’s now about energy demand. That was a long answer.

CB: That’s fine, thank you. So you’ve already touched on this a little bit, but just projecting forward that 25 years to 2050, if you just imagine that we’re in the UK, we’ve hit the net-zero target. What does that look like? What does that mean for our communities, our environment, our consumer choices? Can you just paint a bit of a picture?

EP: So the first thing to say is, whatever picture I paint, I will inevitably be wrong. And that is, again, one of the joys about the Climate Change Act, is that we’re kind of thinking about outcomes, rather than necessarily wedding ourselves to single technology pathways.

That said, there are now some very clear winners, because over the last 10 years in energy, there’s been this huge shift towards electrical technologies on the demand side. The economics of stuff like batteries, solar PV [and] renewables are all trending down, and they look set over the next decade to beat their counterfactual fossil-fuel technology. So that will mean by about 2040, I think we’re saying three-quarters of cars on the road will be electric vehicles. We’re talking about a significant shift in electric vans also on the road. 40% of households with an electric heat pump and a shift to electrical heating.

We’re talking about more trees being planted – and native tree species and hedgerows largely rather than agroforestry. And what that then means in terms of the money, because these technologies on the energy side are more efficient, we’re pretty sure that a household with them in 2050 will be saving money relative to a world where we stay dependent on fossil fuels, and we’ve modelled that to be about £700 [in] savings.

But if you just want to talk about the physics, it’s because a heat pump is three to four times more efficient than a gas boiler. So you start getting savings back from the investment in these technologies by about 2040. At a whole economy level, you start saving money because you’re using a more efficient energy system, which both has a bills impact in the long run, but also does things like it changes our need to import as much gas, so it’s a more secure economy.

I realise they’re not tangible, but they’re important, particularly after the last 10 years. We’ve just gone through a gas crisis, and that has been really real for people. And then if you think about at community level, there’ll be different industries in different places, whether that’s carbon capture and storage or other low carbon fuels in the Humber, in the South Wales cluster, in parts of Scotland, some of that will be recycling existing fossil-fuel infrastructure, skills, jobs, some of it will be brand new industries, a “gigafactory”, for example.

And also in rural communities like the one I live in, you’ll see changes in how we’re managing land. And I think if the government gets its policies right, you should also see farming on a sustainable footing. And I mean, like, financially sustainable. So in some ways, it’s also about not changing, it’s about keeping things that we love, cherish, think about as part of our national heritage, and helping them survive a really big industrial transition.

So I get asked this question a lot, and sometimes I say to people that I think we’re quite keen to describe a world where everything is different, but actually I think it’s about keeping the stuff that we really love. And then making the stuff we don’t love better. And I wonder if that’s a more helpful pitch for people than everything is going to wildly change around you.

CB: Yeah. So again, you sort of touched on this, but let’s think about a world where we get to 2050, we haven’t reached our net-zero target in the UK, and perhaps more importantly, let’s say that the world has also failed to get close to net-zero emissions by mid-century. What does that world look like?

EP: We just did our adaptation progress report, which we do every two years, and in that, we talked about some of the impacts of climate change on the UK economy. We’re about to issue our statutory advice, which you do every five years in adaptation, and we will go into more detail on that.

But just to give you some high-level examples, it’s a world [where] the UK’s got more extremes. So our highest temperature in the summer has crossed 40C for the first time this year. That will become much more commonplace. We’ll see more of those kinds of hot summers, like we had in 2022 and just recently, more frequently. So every few years, rather than every 10 years. Something that is in the memories of people in the 1970s as a one-off, is going to be very common for our children.

If you think about winters, they will be warmer and wetter on average, so something like the last 18 months that we had before the heatwave, with all the rainfall.

What that then means [is that] the extremes [have] consequences for our infrastructure. So it becomes about how do you make sure that a hospital, a care home, a school, can stay open in a heatwave?

We know from 2022 that there are around 2,500 additional deaths because of the heat, largely in the vulnerable population. So we’ll need to think about that. Air conditioning for care homes or schools. We lose 1.7 school days on average to extreme heat. Again, what do you do about those settings?

If you think about rainfall and flooding, that has had a dramatic effect on UK agriculture already, things like the wheat crop, which is very sensitive to changes in temperatures or to rainfall. So maybe it’s our farmers diversifying, growing things like quinoa and other crops in different places, but also it will be about helping to mitigate what happens when we lose a harvest. So there’s that.

On infrastructure, it’s about making sure we’re building power plants, railways, new houses [on places other than] on floodplains, but also to be as flood resilient as we can possibly manage. We lose something like a quarter of railway kilometres already to extreme rainfall, which will become commonplace in 2050. A quarter of new homes, I think, are planned to be built in floodplains or will be affected by flooding by 2050.

So it’s really important to talk about the fact that when we’re thinking about mitigating emissions, it’s partly about reducing the amount of money that you have to spend on adapting the economy, but the impacts are already here, so we do also need to do adaptation.

CB: Great. Yeah. So obviously, the Conservative Party, the opposition Conservatives, have just pledged to repeal the Climate Change Act, should they be elected in 2029, and Reform’s also pledged to scrap the UK’s net-zero target. I’m just curious, have either of those parties been in touch with the committee, before or after or around those announcements?

EP: Well, not during the announcements and as you’d expect, we’re public servants at the Climate Change Committee and during party conferences and like the rest of the civil service, we’re not engaging [with] political announcements at all. So no, they haven’t, but nor would I expect them to and in a similar way, nor would I seek out that engagement.

What I can say is, whenever we’re doing our advice, we try and think about how it is meaningful, how it reflects the priorities of different political parties. We write out to every political party and offer to brief them. And we briefed the shadow secretary of state [Claire Coutinho] on the seventh carbon budget when that came out, and all of our analysis, and we will carry on having those relationships.

Kemi Badenoch on Twitter/X (@KemiBadenoch): Our priority must be cheap abundant energy and economic growth - while protecting our natural landscapes. The Climate Change Act stands in the way. A future Conservative Government will replace it.

Fundamentally, the role of the committee is to advise governments, where advice is written for the government of the day, but it is also to report to parliament. We have no ability to hold ministers to account or overall policymakers, or [to] do anything of that kind. That’s not our job, but it is the job of parliament to hold government accountable. And so the mechanism is that we give parliament the best possible evidence and information in order for them to inform their own policies, whether or not they’re in opposition parties or in the government, and also to hold government to account on any legally agreed targets set by parliament, so we’ll keep doing that job.

CB: Great. Yeah, one of the big bug bears for both of those opposition parties is around the UK’s high cost of energy at the moment. Can you just kind of talk me through what’s going on? Why are our bills so high?

EP: Yes. How long have you got? So there’s a short-term, long-term framing for this, right? So over 80% of the rise over the last 10 years in energy bills has been about the price of gas. The UK is exposed to the price of gas on the international market, even when we’ve got relatively plentiful supplies in the UK, because we use a lot of gas in our heating as well as in our power generation. We’re quite a gassy energy system.

And because we are a relatively small producer, even with the North Sea, our ability to affect that price in any of the gas markets is limited. And so the only protection we have against price spikes or volatility or a rise in gas prices, really, is to reduce gas demand. And that’s one of the attractions of a more electrified power system, that’s what you’re effectively doing.

When I was in my last job and the energy crisis was on, one of the focuses of those of us who were being asked about what we could do about bills, what we could do about the economic exposure to gas, what we could do about energy security, was about electrification – nothing to do with climate at the time – but about trying to reduce gas demand. And that’s what other countries in Europe had been doing too in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So Poland has rolled out heat pumps, not because of climate, but because they’re trying to reduce their exposure to the gas price.

So that’s the wholesale cost of energy, and our exposure to gas is a huge part of the problem, and we shouldn’t lose sight of that. The other components of the bill are about policy costs and infrastructure costs that are levied from the bill or passed through to the bills by suppliers. So there is a component of the bill which is to do with the money it costs to reinforce our energy networks, and that’s increasing at the moment because we’re building out the power sector. That’s true. And there is also a bit of the bill which is about policy costs for things like renewables, but also social policy costs, things like the warm homes discount. And governments have always changed the levels of those policies. They designed them, but they also put them on the electricity bill rather than, say, on gas or in taxation; it was a choice to put them on bills. And so things like the cost of renewables and the renewables auctions, the costs of the early-stage renewables projects, the policy costs for energy efficiency, and so on. They’re all on that bit of the bill.

Now, those will change over time, and a lot of them are coming off in 2030 or being replaced by cheaper contracts that have been negotiated since. But there is a chunk of the bill at the moment, which are levy costs, and we have been saying to the government for some time now – including [to the] previous governments – that we think that those costs should be removed or redistributed. Now, how they do that is entirely up to them. We’re not policymakers, and we shouldn’t be prescribing issues of tax or distribution. But in having those policy costs in the electricity bill, people think electricity is much more expensive than it is, and so getting things like heat pumps onto the system, which would then help you with gas prices or our gas exposure, is harder because you’ve disproportionately impacted the electricity price. So it’s that, I don’t know if that was helpful.

I mean, at the supply end, there’s also the question of how much of the cost of generation that we’re then paying for that goes into that wholesale price? Are renewables cheaper or more expensive than a gas power station? Generally speaking, the economics of the energy transition should be cheaper overall than sticking with fossil fuels, in the long run, [so] what you’ve got to do is build the infrastructure. Though there’s a cost to that [and] it needs to be financed properly, the reason we think it should still be cheaper in the long run is once you’ve built the infrastructure, you don’t have the associated fuel costs for a renewables-led system. You have some different costs that we’re also paying for, to balance the system and to manage it. But even those work out to be cheaper than a system where you stay dependent on fossil fuels, we think.

So it is really complicated to explain to people and I suppose in a nutshell – I’d say, what, that took me like 10 minutes? And I can still see you being like, “well, that’s not a punchy answer”. And in that is the problem, because it’s in that lack of clarity, in the ability to be able to say, “well, it’s about the cost of decarbonisation”, and then we lose sight of the fact it’s actually, over the long term, been more about the cost of gas. I really need to have a better answer to that question.

CB: I mean, it’s interesting, maybe you can kind of slightly zoom out to, not just about the energy bills, but that whole cost of the transition. Because obviously, you’ve already mentioned some of this, but you’ve got investments, costs that we’re adding, building out the infrastructure, but also savings in terms of fossil fuel bills, and the way that that nets out, and the total that you come up, it’s quite easy to focus on one half of that or the other and not give the full picture.

EP: So you could do it in this way. You could think about the energy system as a whole. It’s the infrastructure in your system. And if you’re just talking about – let’s just talk about electricity, which is where a lot of the conversation is. To generate electricity, you need a power plant of some kind, which you have to build. Because even in a world where you were saying, “well, it’s not about building clean technology”, you have to build some power generation for things like artificial intelligence, the growing demand in the economy, you need [an] abundant energy supply. So you have to have a power plant, and [so] you have to build some new power plants. And then once you built your power plant, you need to move the power around. Even in a world where, say, you could generate the power, like with solar PV on people’s roofs and then use it in their homes. In the UK system, because we’ve got big nuclear, we’ve got cities, we’ve got factories, you need some big kit that generates big stuff, and then you have to move it around the system. So then you have to pay for pipes and/or wires to move things around. Your gas, if it’s going into a gas-fired power station, and then your wires to move the electricity that you generate.

And then once you’ve got all of that, you’re then paying the costs of managing the system. And there are costs involved in that, because you pay your power plants to provide services. But if they have to do unexpected things or provide a balance for another plant, or a power plant goes off, and you have to turn one on, there’s a cost for that that we all pay for in the market. And then at the end, we have these other policy costs, which are about redistributing money to pay for schemes that we think are important for the wider energy system, whether that’s energy efficiency or bill relief for fuel poverty. So those are some of your costs.

If you strip all of that back to the beginning, the reason that people like me say a renewables-led system is cheaper is [because] to build a brand new solar plant or wind plant is likely to be cheaper than the cost of building a gas CCGT, in most cases. So your cost of building the new plant is cheaper, and then you don’t have a fuel cost if you’ve built renewables, because you’re not buying in your gas to power it. You don’t need to build your gas pipeline, so there’s a saving there, but you do need to build more cables, because you need all kinds of renewable plants.

There’s then the cost of backing up your renewables with batteries or some decarbonised generation, maybe hydrogen. And then you’ve got your policy costs on the end. And so if you look at the balancing costs, you have to ask, “Well, does it cost more to balance out this wiggly renewable system and have to build another plant, then you’re saving on that fuel input?” And again, the answer there is, there are some costs of balancing the system, but it looks like they’re still cheaper than relying on the fossil fuel system.

And lastly, just very simply, generating electricity and then using it in more efficient products at the end is highly efficient. So in our analysis for the seventh carbon budget, we halve energy waste across the entire energy system, because the technologies on the other end of the system are more efficient, like electric vehicles and heat pumps. The technologies on this end of the system, like new renewables, are highly efficient, and we’re just moving stuff around on wires more efficiently. And that is also a saving, I think everyone out there knows that if you’re not wasting stuff, you’re saving money.

You’ve got to look at the whole system. It’s no good just to compare two different kinds of technology and think that that’s the answer. You’ve got to look at the whole system in the round, and then at the end, the bill in the round, and then make your choices.

Again, that’s a long answer, but because you’re talking about an energy system that underpins the entire economy, the mistake people often make is to look at a single data point on this end, on one day of the year, in one year. And it’s actually looking at the whole thing in the round. Is that better?

Offshore windfarm, south of England, UK.
Offshore windfarm, south of England, UK. Credit: Geoff Smith / Alamy Stock Photo

CB: Yes. So the UK’s net-zero transitions are obviously quite dependent on offshore wind, because of the fact that we’re an island nation, we’re at high latitude, we’ve got peak demand in winter and we don’t have great solar resources. People are looking at the energy transition globally and looking at how that picture’s changed.

You talked about falling technology costs; that’s been a big part of solar costs coming down massively. The cost of wind has come down a lot. And offshore wind’s a lot cheaper than we thought, but its costs have been going up in the last few years. And so some people I’ve seen [are] suggesting that perhaps the UK has made the wrong bet.

What do you think about that? And what are the other options that the UK could take, or is actually offshore wind still the right answer?

EP: Yeah. Well, actually, this sounds like a dodge, but it’s not. It’s important that we say this. It’s not the CCC’s job, actually, to dictate the technology mix. Like when we are doing our analysis, we model different technology pathways, and the reason for that is only that we have to demonstrate to parliamentarians that the number that we come up with for the carbon budget – so the percentage emissions reduction – is credible enough that they’re confident that the target could be met. How they then go about delivering that is for the government’s carbon budget delivery plan and for parliament.

And so the question for the CCC is, would we have a view on whether it should be offshore wind and onshore wind? No, beyond telling you what the relative costs of decarbonisation might be in 15 years time if you choose one or the other. And then the other thing is, sometimes governments make decisions about technologies for reasons that sit outside our remit. For example, it could be about [whether] you take an early punt on a technology because you want the jobs and the industrial benefits. You know, the reason that Scandinavians have so many wind companies and manufacture so many components is [that] they took an early bet on wind, after actually, the turbines were developed in the UK. There we go.

If you think about China and batteries, it’s similar. They took an early punt on electric vehicles and now have cheap electric vehicles. That’s an industrial play, almost more than it is the least cost way of delivering decarbonisation.

So it’s sort of respects the reason that the government might back particular technologies, and I think the government’s offshore wind targets – my memory of them at the time were also about Boris Johnson’s industrial vision for the UK, and I think they were bigger than what the CCC had recommended as well. So, there are always reasons for the government to back a technology which are not about decarbonisation. It’s a long way of saying, “Don’t ask me”.

But I think two other quick points. It is always a mix; the UK system is magnificent, because it is a mix of big and small and different technologies. We’re a pro-nuclear country, we’re a pro-renewables country, we’re an all-kinds-of-renewables country. We are also a country where we’re still going to have gas, and maybe potentially, one of the places that works out how to do things like carbon capture and hydrogen, because we’ve got a legacy of oil and gas industry here.

We’re an “all-of-the-above” country, and I think that’s a good thing, and the most resilient energy systems are those where you have a mix. And that would be something that I would say as an energy analyst, but it’s also the CCC’s approach when we’re looking at the energy system.

So if, for some reason, government chooses a pathway that is away from a particular technology, we’ll find another way of delivering it.

CB: So just more specifically on offshore wind, we’ve obviously got the next auction for CfD projects coming up, [with] results due in December or possibly a bit later. What are you expecting to see come out of that?

EP: You should go and ask me at my last job, where I would have probably had more of an idea of the commercials in the market, because that was literally the job – to understand that and live and breathe the auction. I think we would say, like every analyst is saying, [that] we’re expecting to see some of the supply chain crunch and the pressures on the industry in the prices.

But the beauty of competitive auctions is [that] they force competition. So I have been wrong on auction prices pretty much every time, apart from once, and I have learned not to speculate. There is always so much speculation in the run up to renewables auctions, and I think it’s unwise to try and work out what the prices are before we see them.

On the constraints and the sort of general economics, we modeled in a 25% uplift on our offshore wind costs relative to the kind of standard levelised cost assessment. And that’s because we’re assuming that there are supply chain pressures out to about 2030 and then we wind it down. So I think everyone can see that there have been labour shortages, there’s a higher cost of capital, there have been supply chain constraints because lots of other countries are doing offshore wind. There’s competition for the components and all of the rest.

The very last thing is, for my job, what’s relevant is [whether] the cost of other technologies go up? And a lot of those factors also apply for trying to build a new gas-fired power station or a new nuclear power station, because it’s about skilled labour, it’s about the cost of components, about the cost of financing large-scale infrastructure. And I think we’re looking at that relative cost the whole time, and in that I’m still extremely confident that a decarbonised energy system is cheaper than the counterfactual fossil fuel one.

The exact technology mix and the exact prices over the long run have very little impact on that final GDP number, first thing. And second thing, I think we’re in a pre-2030 world and we’ll see what happens with individual technologies in the long run. And very, very lastly, no one should speculate on auction prices. You’ll just look like an idiot when the final results come out.

CB: Great, yeah. So behind some of the political rhetoric that we’ve been seeing around the UK’s climate goals, the Climate Change Act, there are some genuine concerns around things like how to shepherd the UK’s industry through the transition.

It’s obviously quite a big change for the UK economy, but particularly for things like heavy industry. Do you think that the UK approach is getting the balance right in that area, particularly?

EP: We said when we issued our advice to the Welsh government that we thought that the way that Port Talbot had gone was the wrong way to decarbonise. And by that, we meant [that] you do need to plan ahead for industrial change. It takes time to repurpose sites and to train workers, and there are often longer lead times you end up with by the time government acts.

So the example with Port Talbot in Wales was that everyone knew that that plant was struggling, that there was an opportunity to have an electric arc furnace and there’s just basically been a gap now, between turning off the blast furnaces and starting up the electric arc furnace, because there wasn’t enough early action in the middle. That’s meant there are workers that have lost jobs, that may be an opportunity to redeploy or retrain.

Now, if you contrast that with the closure of Ratcliffe power station, which was the UK’s last coal-fired power station, there was a very long lead, because they knew that the plant would close – not least because of the UK’s carbon budgets. They had a very long process of working with that workforce, to think about how to retrain and redeploy them, and sat down with the unions in the planning. And I think every single worker ended up either retrained or redeployed or retired. That’s a good transition; that’s what you want. And redeployed in the energy sector, right, doing kind of purposeful jobs in their community.

So that’s one answer. [You’ve] got to make sure you do some transition planning and you need a decent industrial policy. I think a lot of other markets, when we’ve looked at it, the difference in our [energy] prices for our industrials are different because of a lack of industrial strategy. So there are incentives and subsidies and things in Europe that don’t exist here. So that produces a competitive difference in the energy price and costs for our industries, which I think is worth looking at. But again, that’s an industrial strategy outside of my remit, but I think that’s missing.

And lastly, I suppose more optimistically, we think that a low-carbon power system [means] electricity [leads to] about 60% of emissions reduction, but it’s also cheap and abundant energy. Industry electrification should therefore have a reduced cost for its energy, which is a big input. They should be able to use new technologies. There should be a really vibrant future for our industrial sector. There’s no reason why there shouldn’t be.

And also, there are opportunities for new industries. I’ve mentioned some of them, but hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, carbon capture and storage, there’s loads of stuff that really suits the UK’s heritage in chemicals and in oil and gas. So I think this positioning of “its industrialisation or its net-zero” is wrong.

The other thing I’d say is that narrative tends to miss that we’ve structurally changed what industry means in the UK. So one of the reasons our emissions footprint from heavy industry is down is not because our industries have gone abroad, it is [because] we switched to high-value manufacturing. So we’ve actually grown our manufacturing output in the UK. It’s just a different kind of manufacturing.

I think we actually do need industries like steel in this country. There are huge opportunities for green steel globally. There are huge opportunities for carbon capture. There are huge opportunities for hydrogen. We think we should do those industries here, and [the CCC] said that. But there are also lots of other new industries and manufacturers that we don’t talk about anywhere near enough, and they’re a kind of core driver of the UK economy.

Tata Steelworks, Wales, UK.
Tata Steelworks, Wales, UK. Credit: Adrian Sherratt / Alamy Stock Photo

CB: So looking ahead a little bit, by June next year, the government’s going to have to legislate for the seventh carbon budget, which centres on 2040, so we’re looking ahead 15 years, and the committee’s already put out its advice. I think it was an 87% reduction?

EP: 87% emissions reduction between the years of 2038 and 2042, including international aviation and shipping.

CB: Yes. So ahead of that legislation being passed, assuming it will be passed in June, there’s obviously a bit of a process the government will put out, like draft legislation. There’s going to be some sort of impact assessment and debate in parliament and so on.

There’s been a bit of a conversation about whether that process should look different, compared to how previous carbon budgets were passed. Calls for greater scrutiny, more time in parliament and so on. What are you hoping to see out of that process?

EP: Again, we serve [the] government, not the other way around. So they will decide what they think is the most effective way of legislating the target. [Currently the budget] is at the point that we’ve given our advice, [so] it becomes the government’s target [now and] they could accept that advice or reject it. No government ever has. It’s been pretty solid advice so far, but they will take that number, scrutinise it, work out whether it’s the number they’re going to offer parliament and then, as you say, offer their own impact assessment or plans or whatever else around it. And then there’s the debate in parliament.

Once we’ve issued our advice, it only serves to be an independent view for parliament, when they’re having the debate, and we are not in charge of the process at all, though I’m sure they will tell us when they decide what to do.

What we have said, I think, in the past on this is [that] it’s obviously a good thing for parliament to have good numbers and to be able to have a debate. What exactly that looks like is down to parliamentarians and government [to] hash out.

CB: All right, we’ll be watching this space. Slightly different question now. Since you’ve been in this role, chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, there’s been quite a notable number of comment pieces published in newspapers with a kind of misogynistic portrayal of you personally. I’m thinking in pieces in the Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph and Sunday Times. What do you think they’re trying to do with that kind of article?

EP: I don’t know. And actually, I don’t tend to read them,

CB: Probably wise.

EP: Thank you. Good, good. I don’t Google myself. I don’t know. I mean, I think it’s a pretty generic and not surprising observation to say that women in public life have a different experience than men. I have been in public-facing jobs before, so in that sense, that’s not new.

The one thing that I would say is I think some of this job is about representing something and I have been struck that it’s actually – it’s not the gender thing that strikes me. It’s the difference in moving from the private energy market and being an energy person and moving to being a public servant working for the Climate Change Committee. Some of the things I would say about energy prices or energy, as an energy analyst, were taken very differently, even though I’m saying – almost verbatim – the same things about things like energy security and gas dependency and costs than in this job. And that’s actually the thing that I find interesting, there’s been a kind of shift in how that expertise is perceived, because of the role change. Otherwise, yeah, I don’t read the stuff.

CB: We’re in this slightly different, well, very different world, when it comes to the public conversation around climate change at the moment, compared to say even two years ago. How do you think, personally, we could have better conversations about what’s obviously a very challenging topic? And how are you trying to make that happen?

EP: I think we should reach people where they are and the things that they’re worried about. And by that, I mean I think it is completely understandable that climate change can remain an absolute priority issue for people in this country. I’ve seen that in every focus group, poll, the social research that we do, and also just what it’s meant to grow up in this country.

And we are, I think, natural environmentalists. [We are] people care about newts and trees and nature, and I don’t think that’s changed. And I think you see that people do understand that climate change is happening, and they want something done about it, and they worry for their children. And so I think we can talk to them more about why we’re doing this. I think we might have forgotten to do that, actually.

I think we should re-center what this is all about and talk about some of the impacts for the things that we love here. For me, 10 generations of my family have come from the same part of Gloucestershire and I live there now. And there’s a really beautiful valley that I walk in, which is populated by beech trees, which are changing colour at the moment. That species is vulnerable to drought and I think, what would this valley look like if those trees couldn’t grow here anymore? And that, for me, is almost more resonant than everything that I know intellectually about climate from my job. It’s about something really deeply personal. It’s about a legacy I want to pass on to my children, that was passed on to me. We could do more of that I think, you know, really talking to people realistically, without hyperbole about what this means.

And then the other thing is, I think we should acknowledge that it’s challenging in places. I think we should acknowledge we have to build some stuff and that costs money, and it is spend-to-save. We know that savings outstrip costs from about 2040, that if we make the investment in a modern energy system, it will pay back, but you still have to make the investment and it has been a really challenging time for people, and so our message to the government has been, “you have to focus on electricity costs, you have to get bills down”. And the Climate Change Committee is saying that, because we understand that it is important in order for people to stay on board with the transition coming in the economy.

I was the chief executive of the energy trade body during the energy crisis. I know how hard it is for people on their energy bills right now and I don’t think we can tackle net-zero without having the answer to those questions. If you think about the rise in populism in this country, it’s about [the] cost of living and people feeling like the economy isn’t delivering for them. So, of course, you should focus on industrial energy prices. Of course, you should focus on energy bills. These are not incorrect things to say that the public worries about.

I think if you can explain to people why clean electric technologies will, yes, help save the places they love, and do our bit for climate change and look after nature, but also do stuff for bills and industry and jobs. I think that’s really important and the sooner we get those benefits to people, the better. I don’t think we can say, wait. And that’s a long way of saying everyone is right. Actually, we should just have much more pragmatic, open, deliberative conversations and engage with the fact that everyone is right here.

CB: Do you think, though – I mean, because we’re also in a world where there’s increasing levels of misinformation, not only across social media, obviously that goes without saying, but also within traditional media, newspapers and so on. Is everyone right in that sense?

EP: I think we have not put enough effort into, like, fact-checking and making sure there’s accurate information, of course. And we are a body that exists, we’re like the charts people. So if you want accurate charts, then come to us. We’ve got lots of those.

What I mean by everyone’s right is [that] there’s often an underpinning sort of question or narrative, that I think we should just be open to following through. It is about, if renewables are cheap, why is my bill higher? It is about when these new industries will be here and what does it mean for my job? And there’s obviously a cost to building new power plants, so who pays for that? And when?

If you look at the Climate Change Committee’s analysis, you can see that there is a cost to building the infrastructure, that we don’t shy away from, and also that we are worried about energy bills and we’re saying to people, we need more action on that bit of it. The thing that’s often missed is [that] then, you get these massive savings for the economy coming through from 2040 and rolling onto 2050. So I think it’s about engaging with people’s genuine concerns about the how.

I think it’s about being very clear that there are facts, like climate change is happening, it will have impacts, it will have costs. You know, fossil fuels have been, over the last 10 years, volatile [and] 80% of the rise on your bills is because of that. It’s not because of these other things. But you can also say these other things have costs too, and we need to think about how to do it.

So that’s what I mean. And you know, the rest of it is sort of outside my job as a civil servant. But I do think, when we do our social research, when we run our citizens panels, one of the most interesting things is we often get questions about [things] like is climate change man made? Or can you tell us about the impacts? And it only takes 10 minutes with the actual climate scientists and people understand – they’re just looking for really good information. And something else that comes back in our social research is a desire for accurate information, particularly from policymakers.

CB: Do you think that the government should be doing more in terms of having that conversation with the public, trying to explain the why and the what and the how?

EP: The committee in the past has said the government should focus more on communications and that’s because of what comes out of the citizens panels. We run small panels of the public that are demographically and politically diverse, and then spend time with them, asking about – usually – trade-offs. So if there’s a decision on what we’re recommending, that could go either way, getting that sense of what people think and feel is important because, in the Climate Change Act, we’re required to consider social factors. So that’s us doing that bit.

And whenever we do those [panels], people say things like, “Oh, I wish I’d known this before”. Or [that] it’s new information for them. And they often then come around to a recommendation that you should communicate more clearly. So, yeah, yeah.

I think it’s always been an afterthought, as well. It’s hard, isn’t it, when you’ve got so much to do, to want to spend money on doing communication. But we did do that in the past. The last time we did a big upgrade of the electricity system in the 1960s, there was a big public information campaign that went out in all kinds of newspapers and magazines [such as] Country Life. [It] talked about, in long form, why we were building pylons and [a] transmission network across England to get electricity to Wales. And now it’s maybe the inverse.

Two “Super Grid” adverts in editions of Country Life from the 1960s. Credit: Chris Stark/X

That’s a really important thing to do when you’re making a big change over. I think we did the same when we were changing over from coal gas to methane in our heating. We’ve done the same with the digital switchover.

So when you’re talking about economic or energy transitions, then we’ve got a good legacy of having communications programs alongside. That’s part [of] the reason the committee said, maybe we should be doing some more of that now.

CB: Yeah, it’s interesting, because it definitely doesn’t feel like that has happened around the changes that are being made or asked for in climate policy.

EP: Have you seen them, the ones from the 1960s ever?

CB: I haven’t. No.

EP: Oh, they’re also quite punchy. It’s worth finding them. There’s one explaining why part of the country is having infrastructure [built] for another part of the country. And there’s one about children and why we’re building infrastructure for the next generation. And I can’t remember the exact headline, but it is something as literal as “Are you going to explain to these small children why you don’t want them to have cheap power in the future?” It’s quite direct.

So, yeah, we used to do that. We used to have no problem doing public information campaigns. Maybe that’s the option here. But again, how it’s done [and at] what level of government, that’s really for policymakers to decide.

CB: Great. Well, that’s [a] perfect segue into my final question. You’ve obviously got young children [and we’ve] just been talking about messages to children. I don’t know if you talk to your kids yet about climate change? How do you think about having that conversation?

EP: We’ve got wind turbines on the hill not far from where I live, and my son, who’s three, has been obsessed with them because they’re going round and round. He likes things that go round and round, see also cars, washing machines, anything that moves. But off the back of that, it’s been quite easy to explain to him that I do something to do with wind turbines. So whenever they see wind turbines, they say, “look, mummy, it’s your job”, which is quite sweet.

I haven’t worked out how to fully explain climate, because they’re six and three. They’re still little. I also, and maybe this is the wrong thing, but I also slightly just want them to live their life as they know it. It’s quite a complex thing [climate change] and small children are quite good at getting worried about stuff they don’t fully understand. We lost a close family member in May and trying to explain death to a three-year-old or a six-year-old – there are some things that are sort of “Big”.

What we do do is talk to them about the fact that my work, the reason I’m not always home, the reason I sometimes miss bedtime, it’s about trying to look after nature. It’s trying to look after the newts in the pond outside, or the beech trees in the valley, and that’s important. And we need to be kind. That’s as far as we’ve got.

I will endeavour to explain atmospheric physics to them before they finish primary school, but I also just want them to enjoy the world as they experience it, too. There’ll be a time for more complex discussions when they get big.

And I suppose that’s a nice segue, because I get asked the question about the kids a lot. It’s about making the world safe enough that they can have a lovely life, of course it is, but I’m aware that some of the loss sits with me, not with them. They will not have memories of how many butterflies there used to be. They’ll just be excited by butterflies. They will experience the world as it is. I would like them to have as many of the experiences that I’ve had, as many grasshoppers in the summer, as many butterflies, as many beautiful, crisp autumn mornings walking the dog to school, but they will ultimately just know the world as it is.

I’m the one [who] has to carry knowing what they’ve lost and I don’t see any reason right now to put that on them. They’re still quite excited when they see a jaybird in the garden.

CB: Great. Well. Thank you very much, Emma. It’s been great to chat with you.

The post The Carbon Brief Interview: UK Climate Change Committee’s Emma Pinchbeck appeared first on Carbon Brief.

The Carbon Brief Interview: UK Climate Change Committee’s Emma Pinchbeck

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