Record-breaking sea temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico have been a key ingredient behind some of the intense hurricanes devastating the region this year.
Last month, Hurricane Helene made landfall on Florida’s “Big Bend” and then stalled over several states to the north dumping “enormous rainfall totals”, resulting in epic flooding which killed at least 220 people.
Just a couple of weeks later, Milton – the ninth hurricane to form in the Atlantic this year and one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes on record – has swept this week towards Florida’s Tampa Bay region, threatening communities that are still recovering from Helene’s impact.
A rapid attribution study recently concluded that record-breaking ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, which helped Hurricane Helene to “spin up”, were made 200-500 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.
Scientists tell Carbon Brief that the same intense ocean heat likely helped to fuel Milton’s behaviour and explains how hurricanes can become more intense in a fast warming world.
How do hot oceans fuel hurricanes?
A hurricane is the name for a tropical cyclone that forms in the Atlantic Ocean or northeastern Pacific Ocean.
Atlantic hurricanes typically first form over the tropical waters of the north Atlantic off the African continent. As the systems travel westwards across the Atlantic, they draw up the warm, moist air that rises from the surface of the ocean, using it to fuel themselves and grow stronger.
As the low-pressure system picks up energy, winds can begin to spin, forming a storm. The warmer the ocean water is, the more energy the storm accumulates and the more quickly it can intensify. Sea surface temperatures of more than 26.5C down to a depth of 50 metres can drive the storm to intensify into a hurricane, once wind speeds exceed 74 miles per hour.
The 2024 Atlantic season runs from the start of June to the end of November and has already seen multiple intense storms, including the powerful Helene and Milton hurricanes, which have struck Florida within just two weeks of each other.
Both hurricanes picked up energy as they travelled over the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently experiencing a marine heatwave.
The graph below shows the extra ocean heat content – a metric that captures the amount of thermal energy stored in the water – for the Gulf of Mexico. For each month, it shows the extra ocean heat, compared with the average amount for that month during 2013-23.
A tropical storm is said to undergo “rapid intensification” if its wind speed increases by at least 35mph over a 24-hour period. Hurricane Milton’s wind speed accelerated faster than all but two previously recorded storms, with more than a 90mph increase in speeds in just 24 hours, ranking it as one of the “strongest” Atlantic storms ever recorded.
A study published in August in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment examined hurricanes that form over the Gulf of Mexico. It found that “rapid intensification” is 50% more likely to occur during marine heatwaves.
A rapid attribution study by Climate Central indicates that, over the past two weeks, the record-breaking temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were made 400-800 times more likely by climate change.
Dr Kevin Reed – a researcher from Stony Brook University in New York – tells Carbon Brief that “Hurricane Milton’s rapid intensification this week is a telltale sign of climate change, which is responsible – in part – for the near-record temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico currently”. He adds:
“Warmer ocean temperatures are leading to more storms that undergo rapid intensification leading to an increase in the proportion of storms that reach major hurricane strength.”
A rapid attribution study from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service examining Hurricane Helene used a model to investigate its strong winds by analysing storms making landfall within two degrees (120 nautical miles) of Helene. It said:
“By statistically modelling storms in a 1.3C cooler climate, this model showed that climate change was responsible for an increase of about 150% in the number of such storms (now once every 53 years on average, up from every 130 years) and, equivalently, that the maximum wind speeds of similar storms are now about 6.1 m/s (around 11%) more intense.”
The same team is now conducting a rapid analysis on the influence of climate change on Hurricane Milton, which will be released on Friday.
“This is in line with other scientific findings that Atlantic tropical cyclones are becoming wetter under climate change and undergoing more rapid intensification,” the WWA study on Helene finds.
Dr Kerry Emanuel, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Carbon Brief that “Milton’s behaviour is consistent with predictions that hurricane scientists have made going back at least three decades”.
New normal?
Since 1878, around six to seven hurricanes, on average, have formed in the North Atlantic every year, with only a couple typically making landfall in the US.
The number of Atlantic hurricanes on record has increased over the period 1851-2019. However, some research suggests that more consistent monitoring, rather than a true increase in hurricane numbers, is behind this trend.
There is a clearer trend of increasing hurricane intensity. Research shows that the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching at least category 3 intensity has also risen over the past four decades. Although the study does not confidently link this increase to climate change, it notes that higher sea surface temperatures are likely to contribute.
As Prof Andrew Dessler summarises on his Climate Brink blog, the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones is still not certain. However, he says that “we can have high confidence that climate change will drive more intense hurricanes”.
Meanwhile, studies have shown that the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, when 14 hurricanes were recorded, was partly due to increased sea surface temperatures.
A study published by Nature Communications in 2022 found that human-caused climate change increased sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic basin by 0.4-0.9C. The authors estimated that this increased “extreme three-hourly storm rainfall rates” and “extreme three-day accumulated rainfall amounts” for Atlantic storms by 11% and 8%, respectively.
Another 2022 study published in Nature Communications found that over the period 1982-2020, climate change-induced increases in sea surface temperatures doubled the probability of “extremely active tropical cyclone seasons”. The 2020 season might have been made twice as likely by ocean surface warming, the authors found.
The post Explainer: How hotter oceans can fuel more intense Atlantic hurricanes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Explainer: How hotter oceans can fuel more intense Atlantic hurricanes
Climate Change
“Sink or swim”: WA Gov hugely underestimating decline in regional gas demand while sleeping on green exports, new report finds
PERTH, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals green commodity exports are an untapped economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, while offering a genuine solution for decarbonising Asia.
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State is a comprehensive analysis of the declining gas market in Asia, and the untapped economic opportunity for WA to become a global leader in green commodity exports while driving the regional shift away from fossil fuels.
The report offers key recommendations for the WA Government to support regional decarbonisation through an orderly phase out of gas exports in favour of green iron and other green exports. It comes as global climate leaders from across business, politics and advocacy prepare to meet for the Global Citizen Now: Perth event focused on decarbonising WA.
Key findings:
- Gas demand is falling across WA’s core markets in Asia: Gas demand fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline, driven by a combination of global geopolitical factors and domestic concerns.
- Policy shifts in key markets since the war on Iran now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas: Japan, South Korea and China have legislated energy plans that prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- New WA gas would arrive in a saturated, uncertain Asian market filled with cheaper gas: The US is now the world’s largest liquefied gas producer and plans to double its capacity as it also targets Asian markets.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to sustain WA’s economy: WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars.
- Exporting more WA gas is likely to delay or impede Asia decarbonisation: Despite claims by the gas industry, there is no evidence that WA gas is displacing coal in Asia, and in fact diverts resources from genuine decarbonisation options.
Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said: “As our export partners in Asia shift away from expensive and polluting gas, the WA Government has a golden opportunity to pivot our economy to green exports, like green iron, which is the most effective way to help our region to decarbonise.
“The writing is on the wall: gas is in decline, renewables are our future. In this context, it makes zero sense for the government to encourage high risk projects like Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal at Scott Reef.
“This report clearly shows that the WA Government faces a choice: sink or swim. They can either allow the gas industry to keep ripping off West Australians and continue propping up its decline, or choose the path that will deliver enormous benefits to the state and the world by becoming a leader in the rapidly expanding green economy.”
Tom Quinn, Managing Director of Springmount Advisory: “Western Australia prospers when it looks to the future and builds for future demand. Twenty years from now, what the world needs is green commodities made using WAs abundant renewable resources. Just like it did with iron ore in the 1950s and gas in the 1970s, WA should look to the future and build what the world will need, not sunsetting industries like gas that are already past their peak.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lucy.keller@greenpeace.org
A report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals the untapped green economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, which also offers a genuine solution for decarbonisation in Asia.
Is Western Australia clinging to a fading gas industry while a thriving green future passes it by? As major Asian trading partners rapidly pivot away from volatile gas imports toward cheap solar and battery storage, this report exposes a high-stakes choice: risk becoming stranded in an oversupplied fossil fuel market, or harness WA’s unmatched sun and wind to lead the global clean energy transition.
Summary
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State reveals that Western Australia (WA) faces a critical juncture as falling Asian gas demand, geopolitical gas supply volatility and accelerating renewable energy deployment undermine the long-term economic viability of gas exports. By harnessing its world-class wind and solar resources, the report demonstrates that WA can execute an orderly phase-out of gas and pioneer a green commodity export economy that could generate $987 billion in economic value by 2060, create 24,000 ongoing jobs, and drive a 9.6% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Key Findings
- Gas demand is falling in Asia – WA can no longer rely on gas exports: Gas demand in core Asian markets fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline in 2026. Legislated energy plans in Japan, South Korea, and China now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- Asia is increasing renewables, importing gas just gets in the way: Evidence from markets like Thailand suggests that gas imports are increasingly crowding out cheaper renewable energy investments and battery storage rather than displacing coal, locking in more emissions over time.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to decarbonise Asia – this is a major win for WA: With world-class renewables, WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars ($987 billion) and support a genuine 9.6% reduction in global emissions.
Recommendations to WA government
Recommendation 1: Plan an orderly gas phase-out aligned with a trading partner pivot plan
Implement a managed, orderly phase-out of gas exports aligned with trading partners’ decarbonisation pathways, rather than waiting for demand to collapse, by:
- Developing and implementing a staged phase-out of gas facilities aligned with feedstock supply expiry or typical end of facility lifespans.
- Committing to no new gas development for gas expansion, including Browse and Kimberley fields.
- Developing new, reciprocal trade relationships with existing gas trade partners, structured to progressively replace gas exports with green commodities – integrated with recommendation 2.
Recommendation 2: Develop an integrated green commodity export strategy, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub
Establish an integrated green commodity export strategy that immediately prioritises green iron development, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub, by:
- Committing to green commodity export targets to give industry and investors a clear demand signal.
- Prioritising green iron as the lead sector within the broader green commodity strategy, given WA’s iron ore endowment and first-mover potential.
Recommendation 3: Reject false solutions such as carbon dumping (CCS) and blue hydrogen
Reject carbon dumping (also described as carbon capture and storage, or CCS) and blue hydrogen as viable decarbonisation technologies, and prioritise green hydrogen and proven renewables for clean energy and fuel production by:
- Excluding blue hydrogen projects (and CCS-dependent projects) from all government support programs.
- Requiring existing hydrogen-based production (including ammonia, methanol, synthetic fuels) to have clear, near-term transition timelines to switch to green hydrogen production.
What you can do
Together, we can push for a prosperous green future.
You can help by:
- Sending an email to Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, calling on them to reject Browse.
- Sharing this story to help more Australians understand what’s at stake.
- Encouraging your friends and family to take action.
REPORT: “From Gas to Green” Building Western Australia’s Future State
Cleaner cooking projects in the UN carbon market will have to set aside a share of their credits to insure against the risk that the trees they save are lost to fire, drought or logging, after the market’s regulator rejected calls to exempt the sector.
The requirement is part of a new rulebook that the Paris Agreement carbon market regulator – the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body – approved last Friday for programmes that aim to cut emissions by distributing new and cleaner cookstoves in regions that still burn wood or charcoal for cooking.
These are the UN mechanism’s first rulebooks for cookstoves, one of the carbon market’s most popular credit types and also one of its most criticised for overstating climate benefits.
They consist of two methodologies: one for programmes that aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions by distributing more efficient cookstoves that burn less wood or charcoal, and a separate methodology for projects shifting households to lower-emissions cookers running on electricity or liquid petroleum gas (LPG).
Mkhuthazi Steleki, the South African chair of the Supervisory Body, said “this decision gives cleaner cooking projects a new pathway under the UN carbon market, with clear rules to ensure that each credit represents a real and credible emission reduction”.
Industry and NGOs lobby to weaken UN carbon credit rules in “coordinated” push
In copycat submissions and a private briefing to government officials, the groups have opposed a proposal to tighten safeguards for emissions offsetsLaunch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes
Repeated delays are raising questions about the bank’s momentum and whether it can mobilise investment to finance Africa’s oil and gas ambitions in an era of energy transition
