Record-breaking sea temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico have been a key ingredient behind some of the intense hurricanes devastating the region this year.
Last month, Hurricane Helene made landfall on Florida’s “Big Bend” and then stalled over several states to the north dumping “enormous rainfall totals”, resulting in epic flooding which killed at least 220 people.
Just a couple of weeks later, Milton – the ninth hurricane to form in the Atlantic this year and one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes on record – has swept this week towards Florida’s Tampa Bay region, threatening communities that are still recovering from Helene’s impact.
A rapid attribution study recently concluded that record-breaking ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, which helped Hurricane Helene to “spin up”, were made 200-500 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.
Scientists tell Carbon Brief that the same intense ocean heat likely helped to fuel Milton’s behaviour and explains how hurricanes can become more intense in a fast warming world.
How do hot oceans fuel hurricanes?
A hurricane is the name for a tropical cyclone that forms in the Atlantic Ocean or northeastern Pacific Ocean.
Atlantic hurricanes typically first form over the tropical waters of the north Atlantic off the African continent. As the systems travel westwards across the Atlantic, they draw up the warm, moist air that rises from the surface of the ocean, using it to fuel themselves and grow stronger.
As the low-pressure system picks up energy, winds can begin to spin, forming a storm. The warmer the ocean water is, the more energy the storm accumulates and the more quickly it can intensify. Sea surface temperatures of more than 26.5C down to a depth of 50 metres can drive the storm to intensify into a hurricane, once wind speeds exceed 74 miles per hour.
The 2024 Atlantic season runs from the start of June to the end of November and has already seen multiple intense storms, including the powerful Helene and Milton hurricanes, which have struck Florida within just two weeks of each other.
Both hurricanes picked up energy as they travelled over the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently experiencing a marine heatwave.
The graph below shows the extra ocean heat content – a metric that captures the amount of thermal energy stored in the water – for the Gulf of Mexico. For each month, it shows the extra ocean heat, compared with the average amount for that month during 2013-23.

A tropical storm is said to undergo “rapid intensification” if its wind speed increases by at least 35mph over a 24-hour period. Hurricane Milton’s wind speed accelerated faster than all but two previously recorded storms, with more than a 90mph increase in speeds in just 24 hours, ranking it as one of the “strongest” Atlantic storms ever recorded.
A study published in August in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment examined hurricanes that form over the Gulf of Mexico. It found that “rapid intensification” is 50% more likely to occur during marine heatwaves.
A rapid attribution study by Climate Central indicates that, over the past two weeks, the record-breaking temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were made 400-800 times more likely by climate change.
Dr Kevin Reed – a researcher from Stony Brook University in New York – tells Carbon Brief that “Hurricane Milton’s rapid intensification this week is a telltale sign of climate change, which is responsible – in part – for the near-record temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico currently”. He adds:
“Warmer ocean temperatures are leading to more storms that undergo rapid intensification leading to an increase in the proportion of storms that reach major hurricane strength.”
A rapid attribution study from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service examining Hurricane Helene used a model to investigate its strong winds by analysing storms making landfall within two degrees (120 nautical miles) of Helene. It said:
“By statistically modelling storms in a 1.3C cooler climate, this model showed that climate change was responsible for an increase of about 150% in the number of such storms (now once every 53 years on average, up from every 130 years) and, equivalently, that the maximum wind speeds of similar storms are now about 6.1 m/s (around 11%) more intense.”
The same team is now conducting a rapid analysis on the influence of climate change on Hurricane Milton, which will be released on Friday.
“This is in line with other scientific findings that Atlantic tropical cyclones are becoming wetter under climate change and undergoing more rapid intensification,” the WWA study on Helene finds.
Dr Kerry Emanuel, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Carbon Brief that “Milton’s behaviour is consistent with predictions that hurricane scientists have made going back at least three decades”.
New normal?
Since 1878, around six to seven hurricanes, on average, have formed in the North Atlantic every year, with only a couple typically making landfall in the US.
The number of Atlantic hurricanes on record has increased over the period 1851-2019. However, some research suggests that more consistent monitoring, rather than a true increase in hurricane numbers, is behind this trend.
There is a clearer trend of increasing hurricane intensity. Research shows that the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching at least category 3 intensity has also risen over the past four decades. Although the study does not confidently link this increase to climate change, it notes that higher sea surface temperatures are likely to contribute.
As Prof Andrew Dessler summarises on his Climate Brink blog, the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones is still not certain. However, he says that “we can have high confidence that climate change will drive more intense hurricanes”.
Meanwhile, studies have shown that the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, when 14 hurricanes were recorded, was partly due to increased sea surface temperatures.
A study published by Nature Communications in 2022 found that human-caused climate change increased sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic basin by 0.4-0.9C. The authors estimated that this increased “extreme three-hourly storm rainfall rates” and “extreme three-day accumulated rainfall amounts” for Atlantic storms by 11% and 8%, respectively.
Another 2022 study published in Nature Communications found that over the period 1982-2020, climate change-induced increases in sea surface temperatures doubled the probability of “extremely active tropical cyclone seasons”. The 2020 season might have been made twice as likely by ocean surface warming, the authors found.
The post Explainer: How hotter oceans can fuel more intense Atlantic hurricanes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Explainer: How hotter oceans can fuel more intense Atlantic hurricanes
Climate Change
Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation
As a treaty to protect the High Seas entered into force this month with backing from more than 80 countries, major fishing nations China, Japan and Brazil secured a last-minute seat at the table to negotiate the procedural rules, funding and other key issues ahead of the treaty’s first COP.
The Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) pact – known as the High Seas Treaty – was agreed in 2023. It is seen as key to achieving a global goal to protect at least 30% of the planet’s ecosystems by 2030, as it lays the legal foundation for creating international marine protected areas (MPAs) in the deep ocean. The high seas encompass two-thirds of the world’s ocean.
Last September, the treaty reached the key threshold of 60 national ratifications needed for it to enter into force – a number that has kept growing and currently stands at 83. In total, 145 countries have signed the pact, which indicates their intention to ratify it. The treaty formally took effect on January 17.
“In a world of accelerating crises – climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution – the agreement fills a critical governance gap to secure a resilient and productive ocean for all,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
Julio Cordano, Chile’s director of environment, climate change and oceans, said the treaty is “one of the most important victories of our time”. He added that the Nazca and Salas y Gómez ridge – off the coast of South America in the Pacific – could be one of the first intact biodiversity hotspots to gain protection.
Scientists have warned the ocean is losing its capacity to act as a carbon sink, as emissions and global temperatures rise. Currently, the ocean traps around 90% of the excess planetary heat building up from global warming. Marine protected areas could become a tool to restore “blue carbon sinks”, by boosting carbon absorption in the seafloor and protecting carbon-trapping organisms such as microalgae.
Last-minute ratifications
Countries that have ratified the BBNJ will now be bound by some of its rules, including a key provision requiring countries to carry out environmental impact assessments (EIA) for activities that could have an impact on the deep ocean’s biodiversity, such as fisheries.
Activities that affect the ocean floor, such as deep-sea mining, will still fall under the jurisdiction of the International Seabed Authority (ISA).
Nations are still negotiating the rules of the BBNJ’s other provisions, including creating new MPAs and sharing genetic resources from biodiversity in the deep ocean. They will meet in one last negotiating session in late March, ahead of the treaty’s first COP (conference of the parties) set to take place in late 2026 or early 2027.
China and Japan – which are major fishing nations that operate in deep waters – ratified the BBNJ in December 2025, just as the treaty was about to enter into force. Other top fishing nations on the high seas like South Korea and Spain had already ratified the BBNJ last year.
Power play: Can a defensive Europe stick with decarbonisation in Davos?
Tom Pickerell, ocean programme director at the World Resources Institute (WRI), said that while the last-minute ratifications from China, Japan and Brazil were not required for the treaty’s entry into force, they were about high-seas players ensuring they have a “seat at the table”.
“As major fishing nations and geopolitical powers, these countries recognise that upcoming BBNJ COP negotiations will shape rules affecting critical commercial sectors – from shipping and fisheries to biotechnology – and influence how governments engage with the treaty going forward,” Pickerell told Climate Home News.
Some major Western countries – including the US, Canada, Germany and the UK – have yet to ratify the treaty and unless they do, they will be left out of drafting its procedural rules. A group of 18 environmental groups urged the UK government to ratify it quickly, saying it would be a “failure of leadership” to miss the BBNJ’s first COP.
Finalising the rules
Countries will meet from March 23 to April 2 for the treaty’s last “preparatory commission” (PrepCom) session in New York, which is set to draft a proposal for the treaty’s procedural rules, among them on funding processes and where the secretariat will be hosted – with current offers coming from China in the city of Xiamen, Chile’s Valparaiso and Brussels in Belgium.
Janine Felson, a diplomat from Belize and co-chair of the “PrepCom”, told journalists in an online briefing “we’re now at a critical stage” because, with the treaty having entered into force, the preparatory commission is “pretty much a definitive moment for the agreement”.
Felson said countries will meet to “tidy up those rules that are necessary for the conference of the parties to convene” and for states to begin implementation. The first COP will adopt the rules of engagement.
She noted there are “some contentious issues” on whether the BBNJ should follow the structure of other international treaties such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), as well as differing opinions on how prescriptive its procedures should be.
“While there is this tension on how far can we be held to precedent, there is also recognition that this BBNJ agreement has quite a bit to contribute in enhancing global ocean governance,” she added.
The post Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation appeared first on Climate Home News.
Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation
Climate Change
Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat
The annual World Economic Forum got underway on Tuesday in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, providing a snowy stage for government and business leaders to opine on international affairs. With attention focused on the latest crisis – a potential US-European trade war over Greenland – climate change has slid down the agenda.
Despite this, a number of panels are addressing issues like electric vehicles, energy security and climate science. Keep up with top takeaways from those discussions and other climate news from Davos in our bulletin, which we’ll update throughout the day.
From oil to electrons – energy security enters a new era
Energy crises spurred by geopolitical tensions are nothing new – remember the 1970s oil shock spurred by the embargo Arab producers slapped on countries that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, leading to rocketing inflation and huge economic pain.
But, a Davos panel on energy security heard, the situation has since changed. Oil now accounts for less than 30% of the world’s energy supply, down from more than 50% in 1973. This shift, combined with a supply glut, means oil is taking more of a back seat, according to International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol.
Instead, in an “age of electricity” driven by transport and technology, energy diplomacy is more focused on key elements of that supply chain, in the form of critical minerals, natural gas and the security buffer renewables can provide. That requires new thinking, Birol added.
“Energy and geopolitics were always interwoven but I have never ever seen that the energy security risks are so multiplied,” he said. “Energy security, in my view, should be elevated to the level of national security today.”
In this context, he noted how many countries are now seeking to generate their own energy as far as possible, including from nuclear and renewables, and when doing energy deals, they are considering not only costs but also whether they can rely on partners in the long-term.
In the case of Europe – which saw energy prices jump after sanctions on Russian gas imports in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – energy security rooted in homegrown supply is a top priority, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos on Tuesday.
Outlining the bloc’s “affordable energy action plan” in a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum, she emphasised that Europe is “massively investing in our energy security and independence” with interconnectors and grids based on domestically produced sources of power.
The EU, she said, is trying to promote nuclear and renewables as much as possible “to bring down prices and cut dependencies; to put an end to price volatility, manipulation and supply shocks,” calling for a faster transition to clean energy.
“Because homegrown, reliable, resilient and cheaper energy will drive our economic growth and deliver for Europeans and secure our independence,” she added.
Comment – Power play: Can a defensive Europe stick with decarbonisation in Davos?
AES boss calls for “more technical talk” on supply chains
Earlier, the energy security panel tackled the risks related to supply chains for clean energy and electrification, which are being partly fuelled by rising demand from data centres and electric vehicles.
The minerals and metals that are required for batteries, cables and other components are largely under the control of China, which has invested massively in extracting and processing those materials both at home and overseas. Efforts to boost energy security by breaking dependence on China will continue shaping diplomacy now and in the future, the experts noted.
Copper – a key raw material for the energy transition – is set for a 70% increase in demand over the next 25 years, said Mike Henry, CEO of mining giant BHP, with remaining deposits now harder to exploit. Prices are on an upward trend, and this offers opportunities for Latin America, a region rich in the metal, he added.
At ‘Davos of mining’, Saudi Arabia shapes new narrative on minerals
Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES – which describes itself as “the largest US-based global power company”, generating and selling all kinds of energy to companies – said there is a lack of discussion about supply chains compared with ideological positioning on energy sources.
Instead he called for “more technical talk” about boosting battery storage to smooth out electricity supply and using existing infrastructure “smarter”. While new nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors are promising, it will be at least a decade before they can be deployed effectively, he noted.
In the meantime, with electricity demand rising rapidly, the politicisation of the debate around renewables as an energy source “makes no sense whatsoever”, he added.
The post Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat appeared first on Climate Home News.
Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat
Climate Change
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