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Electricity is a necessity for modern life, so it is important that the electricity system be flexible, resilient, and built to minimize risks.

It’s no secret that the electricity sector is in a time of transition. Our electricity system was originally built around large, long-lived, monopoly-owned assets — typically large, fossil-fueled powerplants — that were designed for the one-way flow of electricity to inflexibly meet demand. That approach was understandable for its time, but is proving to be financially and operationally rigid in the face of evolving technology and new climate extremes.

During this time of fluidity in electricity policy and demand, and as we continue to face the impacts of climate change, Duke Energy continues to propose major new investments in long-lived, fossil-fuel powerplants that will likely become expensive relics. Instead of evaluating how to remove barriers to move faster on clean energy, Duke’s proposed Carbon Plan proposes to double down on increasingly risky fossil gas and to continue to operate old, costly, clunky coal. SACE joined with Sierra Club and NRDC, represented by the Southern Environmental Law Center, along with the NC Sustainable Energy Association, to submit testimony to the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) explaining the risks of Duke’s proposed plan.

Duke Energy’s Proposal

Every two years, Duke Energy has to file a “Carbon Plan and Integrated Resource Plan,” or CPIRP, for approval by the NCUC, outlining its forecasted load, along with plan to meet that load for its customers in the Carolinas and achieve the state’s carbon pollution reduction requirements. Similarly, every three years, Duke has to file an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for approval by the South Carolina Public Service Commission (PSC). In 2023, those two requirements aligned, and Duke filed the same plan in both states in August (In NC in Docket E-100 Sub 190, in SC in Dockets 2023-8-E and  2023-10-E. However, Duke came back to both Commissions just a few months later with an update: the utility reported that it had under-estimated near-term load growth. In January 2024, Duke updated its proposed plans with both Commissions based on higher load growth projections.

The CPIRP and IRP are key steps to deciding what resources Duke will develop, including large-scale generation projects, renewable energy contracts, and demand-side programs. Organizations and companies can intervene at these Commissions, meaning can present arguments in support of or critical of Duke’s plan, with an aim of the Commission making a well-informed decision for a reasonable resource plan. SACE and co-intervenors submitted testimony from four experts:

  • Maria Roumpani provided testimony on risks associated with Duke’s plan and ways that Duke’s modeling favors new gas resources;
  • Jake Duncan’s testimony focuses on the need to incorporate consideration of distributed resources;
  • Jim Wilson provided testimony on problems with Duke’s load forecast and resource adequacy study;
  • Michael Goggin’s testominy showcases the need for better transmission planning and improvements to the process for interconnecting of clean energy resources.

This post gives an overview and the context of the case we’ve made about Duke’s proposed Carbon Plan. Future blogs will go deep into the issues surrounding reliability and key assumptions underlying Duke’s faulty plan.

Read the Blog Series on Duke’s 2024 CPIRP

Duke’s proposed plan does not address key barriers to deploying clean energy resources like solar and storage at the scale and pace needed to meet demand. Instead, Duke limits these resources or adds artificial cost adders in its modeling, resulting in the delay of retiring old, costly, clunky coal plants. These modeling choices also drive Duke to propose the addition of new gas plants that, if built, would only be useful for a short time and would not comply with new federal pollution limits. As Roumpani stated in her testimony, inclusion of these gas resources “stems from an artificial lack of alternatives at a time of high load growth.”

Duke Energy’s latest proposal includes delaying the retirement of eight coal units compared to retirements dates proposed in Duke’s 2020 resource plan. Source: Roumpani testimony

Fossil generation, both coal and gas, carry unnecessary risks to the electric system, to our pocketbooks, and to the environment. And once built, fossil power plants can persist for decades — committing future generations to live with these risks. Duke’s plan to keep coal generation resources online past their previously planned retirement dates is in conflict with Duke’s own acknowledgement of the challenges these plants face: fuel supply issues, declining workforce, lack of critical parts, and aging units.

“Even if those large gas assets were the least-cost option in this snapshot in time – which they are not— they should not be considered part of a least-cost, least-risk approach as they are locking ratepayers into a system that evidence suggests might become very expensive.” ~Maria Roumpani testimony filed with the NCUC on May 28, 2024 in the CPIRP, Docket E-100, Sub 190

As Dr. Roumpani points out, “it seems that the timing of retirements is primarily driven by [Duke’s] intention to invest in another fossil fuel resource that carries some of the same risks: natural gas.” The risks of gas were made clearly evident in 2022, when price spikes driven by the war in Ukraine were passed directly on to customers and when Duke cut off power on Christmas Eve because of failures across the gas system and at gas power plants themselves. Once events like these occur, there is little a Commission can do to blunt the impact on ratepayers. Thus Roumpani “calls for additional scrutiny in cases like the current CPIRP—before costs are incurred.”

The Only Constant is Change

Change is the law of life, and those who look only to the past and present are certain to miss the future. -John F. Kennedy

The electricity sector is changing at unprecedented speed that requires unprecedented innovation. The plan Duke presented to the NCUC in January does expand the pace of renewable energy additions compared to the present day, and it would gradually retire coal. BUT, given the huge scale of financial, reliability, and environmental risks that attend Duke’s proposed new, multi-decade extension of fossil fuel dependence, it is not up to the challenge of meeting load in a reliable and affordable way in the dynamic future we face.

Dr. Roumpani states that, as Duke’s own modeling shows, “clean energy resources should be added as fast as possible. I recommend that the Commission approve the solar, wind, and battery storage procurement levels identified in the Companies’ [near-term action plan from its portfolio designed to comply with the 2030 carbon pollution reduction requirement] as a floor and instruct Duke to present a plan on how additional clean resources could be interconnected.”

We have presented plenty of evidenced-based reasons for the NCUC to direct Duke to stop looking to the past and to instead focus on a resilient clean energy future.

Read the Blog Series on Duke’s 2024 CPIRP

#CPIRP2024

The post Duke’s Carbon Plan is too risky, according to experts: Part 1 appeared first on SACE | Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

Duke’s Carbon Plan is too risky, according to experts: Part 1

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Renewable Energy

Australia 943 MW Project, Bermuda Offshore Plans

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Weather Guard Lightning Tech

Australia 943 MW Project, Bermuda Offshore Plans

Australia has approved the 943 MW Valley of the Winds Wind Farm, Bermuda plans to install an offshore wind farm with 17 turbines by 2027, and Nova Scotia proposes an ambitious $10 billion offshore wind project.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on FacebookYouTubeTwitterLinkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

Australia has given the green light to a massive wind project. The Independent Planning Commission in New South Wales has approved ACEN Australia’s nine hundred forty-three megawatt Valley of the Winds wind farm. The project also includes a three hundred twenty megawatt battery storage system. The project will create up to four hundred construction jobs and fifty permanent positions. The investment is approximately one point six eight billion Australian dollars.

The island nation of Bermuda is making the most of its windy weather. Officials unveiled plans for an offshore wind farm starting with seventeen turbines by twenty twenty-seven. The project aims to help Bermuda reach its twenty thirty-five goal of eighty-five percent renewable energy. The project will begin with a sixty megawatt installation near the north shore. Officials hope to scale up to one hundred twenty megawatts total.

Nigel Burgess, head of regulation at Regulatory Authority Bermuda, calls offshore wind a compelling opportunity. The project will lower exposure to fuel price shocks and create space for long-term investment. Currently, Bermuda gets one hundred percent of its power from fuel burning. The project aims to promote energy independence by reducing dependence on imported fuels. The wind farm is expected to be operational by twenty thirty.

Nova Scotia has announced an ambitious offshore wind project that could cost up to ten billion dollars. Premier Tim Houston wants to license enough offshore turbines over the next ten years to produce forty gigawatts of electricity. That’s eight times more than originally planned. To put this in perspective, Nova Scotia with just over one million people requires only two point four gigawatts at peak demand. China’s offshore wind turbines were producing just under forty-two gigawatts as of last year.

The project would require hundreds of wind turbines built in water about one hundred meters deep, about twenty-five kilometers offshore. Experts say the project would actually need more than four thousand offshore turbines using current fifteen megawatt turbines. The transmission line alone is estimated to cost between five billion and ten billion dollars to connect the wind farms with the rest of the country.

The premier calls it a concept to capture the imagination of Nova Scotians. He wants federal help to cover costs, saying the excess electricity could supply twenty-seven percent of Canada’s total demand.

https://weatherguardwind.com/australia-bermuda-offshore/

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Renewable Energy

California a “Failed State?”

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Disgusting. It’s one thing that “news” in the United States has largely been replaced by incendiary opinions. But it’s even worse that so many of these opinions are so grossly ill-informed.

In its quest to move to the middle of the political spectrum, CNN has integrated a few hard-right commentator, like Jennings.  Fine; I get that.  But do they have to be morons?

In particular, can’t CNN do better than to refer to California as a “failed state?”  If California were a nation it would be the fourth largest economy on the planet, having recently overtaken Japan.

California a “Failed State?”

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Renewable Energy

North Carolina needs more certainty before committing to an expensive new gas plant

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Despite massive uncertainty across the economy, Duke Energy is plowing ahead with its plan to build new fossil gas-fired power plants to serve data center, manufacturing, and other large customer load that may not even show up. Duke has asked the NC Utilities Commission for permission to build a combined-cycle (CC) gas plant in Person County, North Carolina, at the site of Duke’s Roxboro coal plant.

SACE has argued against the need for this gas power plant in the Certificate of Public Need and Necessity (CPCN) docket, submitting testimony to the Commission on Monday, June 9, 2025. Here’s a summary of that testimony (prepared by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.), which explains what this all means for Duke’s billpayers, and how Duke can make changes within its control to protect customers and reduce pollution. These recommendations include:

  • Not approving this new gas power plant because the risks that it will increase bills are too high. Instead, Duke should improve the processes that are holding back lower-cost renewables and storage, then use renewables and storage to meet new load.
  • Instead of approving this specific gas plant, the Commission should order Duke to use an all-source procurement process to determine a portfolio of flexible assets that can meet the utility’s needs based on real-world costs.
  • In the event the Commission approves this gas plant, it should protect customers from high bills due to volatile gas prices by instituting a fuel cost sharing mechanism for the fuel costs spent to run this plant.

Duke Doesn’t Need this Risky Gas Power Plant

Duke’s claim that it needs this fossil gas power plant is based on outdated analysis. In this CPCN docket, Duke relies on its 2023 Carbon Plan Integrated Resource Plan (CPIRP) modeling and the CPIRP supplemental update and analysis filed in January 2024. The world has changed dramatically since then, and it is important that the Commission review the latest information before approving expenditures that will impact customer bills for decades.

Duke’s load forecast – once based on steady, predictable growth – is now subject to significant uncertainty as 1) data center developers look around the country for the best deal and the fastest interconnection to the grid and 2) manufacturers announce projects and then pull back as political uncertainty changes the economics of those projects. Under Duke’s current rate structure, prospective companies and site developers do not need to commit much money to become part of Duke’s load forecast. They have very little “skin in the game,” and Duke currently does not have policies in place to change this. If the Commission allows Duke to build an expensive fossil gas plant for load that doesn’t materialize, Duke’s remaining customers will be on the hook to pay for it.

Duke’s own load forecast updates since 2023 show that there are wild swings in its predictions. In the Spring of 2023, Duke anticipated 8 new large load projects during its 10-year planning forecast period, requiring an average of 169 MW each. Then for Fall 2023 (the supplemental update filed in January 2024), Duke anticipated 35 projects requiring an average of 111 MW each. In Summer 2024, Duke changed its forecast again, projecting 39 projects requiring an average of only 103 MW. And in May 2025, Duke filed an update showing a reduction in the number of projects back down to 35 but a dramatic increase in average need – back up to 169 MW. Duke’s forecasts will continue to show swings up and down – both in the number of projects and megawatts – until Duke has policies in place that require more commitment from the companies that knock on its door requesting service. Duke also has not published information regarding the location of these loads – the latest forecast applies to all of Duke Energy in both North and South Carolina.

It is also important to know that that this gas plant isn’t needed to meet growing load from existing customers or to replace retiring coal plants (according to Duke’s own testimony). This gas plant is being justified by new manufacturing and data centers claiming they will be operating somewhere in Duke Energy Progress or Duke Energy Carolinas territory in North or South Carolina.

Even if the load shows up, this plant won’t be needed for long

Even Duke admits that it doesn’t “need” this fossil gas power plant for very long. These kinds of power plants, combined-cycle plants, are typically used about 80% of the time, i.e. they are “baseload” power plants. But even absent federal carbon regulations, Duke expects this power plant’s usage to decline significantly throughout its 35-year lifetime (from 80% in 2030 decreasing to 46% by 2040 and only 13% by 2050 onwards). As cheaper renewables and storage with zero fuel costs are brought online, they will displace this plant. Duke is proposing to build a giant power plant that will very quickly run less and less – but Duke’s customers will continue to pay for it until 2065—15 years past a state law requiring Duke’s generation fleet to be carbon neutral. This represents a significant change in how power plants are built and run, and this is not in the best interest of Duke’s billpayers. To add insult to injury, Duke hasn’t even procured all of the equipment needed to build this plant, so the costs could skyrocket even more than they already have since last year’s carbon plan proceeding.

Renewables are flexible, would protect customers, and would reduce pollution

Duke’s model only chose a gas plant to meet this capacity need because of limits Duke imposed on the model. Duke claims it cannot interconnect renewables and storage fast enough to meet this capacity need, but the reasons it cannot interconnect those resources faster are all within Duke’s control. As Synapse recommends, Duke needs to update its processes that are holding back renewables and storage from serving customers with low-cost and low-risk resources. These processes include interconnection and transmission planning.

SACE has been advocating for improvements to these processes for years, and Duke has made changes to both its interconnection process and transmission planning. Duke was one of the first utilities in the Southeast to implement cluster studies in its interconnection process, and it is in the midst of the first scenario-based transmission planning exercise in the region. But is there evidence that these updates have helped if Duke continues to limit solar and storage in its future resource modeling? Given the much quicker interconnection process recently demonstrated in Texas, this raises the question of how hard Duke is really trying to streamline renewables interconnection.

Modular, flexible resources such as wind, solar, and energy storage can be adjusted in quantity based on market conditions. As our testimony from Synapse states, “This modularity, combined with the fact that solar and wind have zero exposure to fuel price volatility once they are constructed, makes these resources particularly valuable in the face of trade tariff uncertainty.”

The bottom line is that the Commission needs a lot more certainty about load growth and costs before committing Duke’s billpayers to any type of large fossil gas power plant. We simply do not have that now.

The post North Carolina needs more certainty before committing to an expensive new gas plant appeared first on SACE | Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

North Carolina needs more certainty before committing to an expensive new gas plant

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