Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Shattered climate consensus
FRACKING BAN: UK energy secretary Ed Miliband has announced that the government will bring forward its plans to permanently ban fracking, in a move designed to counter a promise from the hard-right Reform party to restart efforts to introduce the practice, the Guardian said. In the same speech, Miliband said Reform’s plans to scrap clean-energy projects would “betray” young people and future generations, the Press Association reported.
ACT AXE?: Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, pledged to scrap the 2008 Climate Change Act if elected, Bloomberg reported. It noted that the legislation was passed with cross-party support and strengthened by the Conservatives.
‘INSANE’: Badenoch faced a backlash from senior Tory figures, including ex-prime minister Theresa May, who called her pledge a “catastrophic mistake”, said the Financial Times. The newspaper added that the Conservatives were “trailing third in opinion polls”. A wide range of climate scientists also condemned the idea, describing it as “insane”, an “insult” and a “serious regression”.
Around the world
- CLIMATE CRACKDOWN: The US Department of Energy has told employees in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to avoid using the term “climate change”, according to the Guardian.
- FOREST DELAY: Plans for Brazil’s COP30 flagship initiative, the tropical forests forever fund, are “suffer[ing] delays” as officials remain split on key details, Bloomberg said.
- COP MAY BE ‘SPLIT’: Australia could “split” the hosting of the COP31 climate summit in 2026 under a potential compromise with Turkey, reported the Guardian.
- DIVINE INTERVENTION: Pope Leo XIV has criticised those who minimise the “increasingly evident” impact of global warming in his first major climate speech, BBC News reported.
€44.5 billion
The cost of extreme weather and climate change in the EU in the last four years – two-and-a-half times higher than in the decade to 2019, according to a European Environment Agency report covered by the Financial Times.
Latest climate research
- Fossil-fuelled climate change caused around 36% of Typhoon Ragasa’s direct damage to homes and properties in southern China, according to a rapid impact attribution study | Imperial Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment
- Some 86% of the global population are concerned about climate change, according to a survey of 280,000 people in 142 countries and regions | Climate Policy
- A global shift towards a “planetary health diet” could slash emissions and save tens of thousands of lives each day | EAT-Lancet Commission 2025 report
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Clean energy has met 100% of Great Britain’s electricity demand for a record 87 hours this year so far, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This is up from just 2.5 hours in 2021 and 64.5 hours in all of 2024. The longest stretch of time where 100% of electricity demand was met by clean energy stands at 15 hours, from midnight on 25 May 2025 through to 3pm on 26 May, according to the analysis.
Spotlight
‘Overshoot’ unknowns
As the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5C dwindle, there is increasing focus on the prospects for “overshooting” the Paris Agreement target and then bringing temperatures back down by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
At the first-ever Overshoot Conference in Laxenburg, Austria, Carbon Brief asks experts about the key unknowns around warming “overshoot”.
Sir Prof Jim Skea
Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and emeritus professor at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy
So there are huge knowledge gaps around overshoot and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As it’s very clear from the themes of this conference, we don’t altogether understand how the Earth would react in taking CO2 out of the atmosphere.
We don’t understand the nature of the irreversibilities and we don’t understand the effectiveness of CDR techniques, which might themselves be influenced by the level of global warming, plus all the equity and sustainability issues surrounding using CDR techniques.
Prof Kristie Ebi
Professor at the University of Washington’s Center for Health and the Global Environment
There are all kinds of questions about adaptation and how to approach effective adaptation. At the moment, adaptation is primarily assuming a continual increase in global mean surface temperature. If there is going to be a peak – and of course, we don’t know what that peak is – then how do you start planning? Do you change your planning?
There are places, for instance when thinking about hard infrastructure, [where overshoot] may result in a change in your plan – because as you come down the backside, maybe the need would be less. For example, when building a bridge taller. And when implementing early warning systems, how do you take into account that there will be a peak and ultimately a decline? There is almost no work in that. I would say that’s one of the critical unknowns.
Dr James Fletcher
Former minister for public service, sustainable development, energy, science and technology for Saint Lucia and negotiator at COP21 in Paris.
The key unknown is where we’re going to land. At what point will we peak [temperatures] before we start going down and how long will we stay in that overshoot period? That is a scary thing. Yes, there will be overshoot, but at what point will that overshoot peak? Are we peaking at 1.6C, 1.7C, 2.1C?
All of these are scary scenarios for small island developing states – anything above 1.5C is scary. Every fraction of a degree matters to us. Where we peak is very important and how long we stay in this overshoot period is equally important. That’s when you start getting into very serious, irreversible impacts and tipping points.
Prof Oliver Geden
Senior fellow and head of the climate policy and politics research cluster at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and vice-chair of IPCC Working Group III
[A key unknown] is whether countries are really willing to commit to net-negative trajectories. We are assuming, in science, global pathways going net-negative, with hardly any country saying they want to go there. So maybe it is just an academic thought experiment. So we don’t know yet if [overshoot] is even relevant. It is relevant in the sense that if we do, [the] 1.5C [target] stays on the table. But I think the next phase needs to be that countries – or the UNFCCC as a whole – needs to decide what they want to do.
Prof Lavanya Rajamani
Professor of international environmental law at the University of Oxford
I think there are several scientific unknowns, but I would like to focus on the governance unknowns with respect to overshoot. To me, a key governance unknown is the extent to which our current legal and regulatory architecture – across levels of governance, so domestic, regional and international – will actually be responsive to the needs of an overshoot world and the consequences of actually not having regulatory and governance architectures in place to address overshoot.
Watch, read, listen
FUTURE GAZING: The Financial Times examined a “future where China wins the green race”.
‘JUNK CREDITS’: Climate Home News reported on a “forest carbon megaproject” in Zimbabwe that has allegedly “generated millions of junk credits”.
‘SINK OR SWIM’: An extract from a new book on how the world needs to adapt to climate change, by Dr Susannah Fisher, featured in Backchannel.
Coming up
- 7 October: International Energy Agency (IEA) renewables 2025 report launch
- 8-10 October: World summit of Indigenous peoples and nature, Abu Dhabi, UAE
- 9-15 October: International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 2025 congress, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Pick of the jobs
- UK government foreign, commonwealth and development office, senior climate policy adviser | Salary: CA$93,207. Location: Calgary, Canada
- Wellcome Trust, senior research manager, climate and health | Salary: £64,800. Location: London
- Bloomberg, product manager – climate, nature and sustainability regulations | Salary: Unknown. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Virtual power plants see a renewed push in the legislature to weather the state’s “mid-transition.”
SACRAMENTO—Not long into Ellie Cohen’s opening remarks at the California Climate Policy Summit this week, the crowd erupted in boos—at her request.
California’s Climate Leaders Talk Clean Energy Growing Pains and the War on Iran
The Bronx River is home to obsolete dams. Plans to remove them could boost efforts to restore dwindling river herring populations.
The Bronx River was once a curvy waterway that ran through vast forests and flowed into networks of tidal marshland. For centuries, river herring have swum up the waterway from the East River and the Long Island Sound to lay their eggs.
Dam Useless: Barriers Prevent a Migratory Fish from Reproducing
Cecilia Requena is a Bolivian senator with Parliamentarians for a Fossil Free Future and Juan Pablo Osornio is engagement and policy director at Earth Insight.
In late April, delegations from dozens of governments will gather in Colombia for the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. Together with the roadmaps announced at November’s UN climate summit in Brazil, which will call on countries to transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation by 2030, political will is building to save our most critical natural resources.
Now we need the practical application of where and how this will work – specific places where the line is drawn against new fossil fuel extraction. That is what Fossil Free Zones offer.
What is a Fossil Free Zone?
A Fossil Free Zone is a defined area demarcated by its ecological, biodiversity, or cultural significance, where exploration, extraction, and development of fossil fuels are permanently prohibited. Think tropical rainforests, key biodiversity areas, Indigenous Peoples’ territories, and critical marine ecosystems. They translate the abstract global commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels into something tangible: a map, a boundary, a legal safeguard.
The stakes for getting this right are enormous. Research shows that oil and gas blocks already overlap with approximately 179 million hectares of tropical moist forests – roughly 21% of the Amazon, Congo Basin, and Southeast Asian forest cover.
Globally, almost 27% of global conventional oil resources overlap with top-priority socio-environmental areas. In 2024 alone, 85% of new oil discoveries were made offshore, frequently overlapping with marine biodiversity hotspots.
Colombia: A model for the world
No country illustrates the possibilities better than Colombia – fittingly, the nation hosting this conference (along with the Netherlands). Last September, Colombia announced a landmark ban on fossil fuel and mining extraction across its entire Amazon region – the world’s first region-wide Fossil Free Zone of its kind.
Colombia’s decision followed in the wake of our new research, which found that developing untapped reserves beneath the country’s forest would generate billions of dollars in stranded assets while doing almost nothing for national energy security. It would, however, threaten 20% of the intact Amazon forest and the territories of nearly 70% of the Indigenous and local communities whose lands overlap with fossil fuel concessions. In most of the Colombian Amazon, the cost of extraction is higher than the cost of conservation.
How a global roadmap can meet the promise to halt deforestation
Other countries are also taking steps in this direction. Mexico has 100 million hectares of similar Safeguard Zones, Guatemala ended oil extraction in the Mayan Biosphere Reserve, and parliamentarians across the Amazon basin have introduced legislation to extend the ban region-wide.
The economic case for leaving fossil fuels in the ground
The fossil fuel endgame – a period of declining global demand as renewable energy scales – means that unconventional and frontier reserves in remote forests are increasingly uncompetitive. They require massive public investment in infrastructure, including roads that themselves become vectors for illegal logging, small-scale mining, and agricultural encroachment. Stranded asset risk is real and growing.
In 2025, wind and solar growth outpaced all new electricity demand, and more than a quarter of all vehicles sold were electric.
For forested nations, there is also an emerging economic logic for protection: intact forests generate jobs and revenue from protected area management, watershed services, and sustainable tourism, while supporting the small-scale agriculture that most rural economies depend on. They also underpin water security for agriculture and energy generation and act as carbon sinks. Over 33 million people are employed directly in the forest sector, and there are more than 1.6 billion small forest farm producers.
Fossil fuel investment amid volatile energy markets
Developing countries with fossil fuel reserves face genuine pressures to develop them – credit ratings, currency stability, social services, and energy security are tied to an ever-growing fossil frontier, particularly in the midst of volatile energy markets.
The conflict in Iran has amplified that volatility, spiking oil prices and giving fossil fuel-dependent governments renewed short-term pressure to expand domestic production – making the case for internationally-backed Fossil Free Zones, paired with real financial support, all the more urgent.
Innovative financial mechanisms like the Tropical Forest Forever Facility – a fund proposed at COP30 that would provide long-term, results-based payments to tropical forest nations to keep forests standing – can shift the economic scales enough to make Fossil Free Zones in high-integrity forests politically viable.
Colombia pledges to exit investment protection system after fossil fuel lawsuits
Industries leading the energy transition – renewable energy developers, green hydrogen producers, sustainable finance institutions, and technology companies with net-zero supply chain commitments – also have a direct stake in the Fossil Free Zone agenda. Moreover, the reputational and legal risks of investments in fossil fuel frontiers are escalating.
Already, 11 banks have applied various levels of financial restrictions to the oil and gas sector in the Amazon. Some of these policies are strong, others are closer to greenwashing, but these commitments prove that banks see the increasing risks.
What should emerge from Colombia conference
Our hope for the upcoming conference in Colombia is that, at a minimum, Fossil Free Zones are uplifted as part of a shared international vision for the energy transition. At best, a coalition of countries commits to include Fossil Free Zones in their national plans and establishes a shared framework with principles to identify new zones and implementation guidance for other countries.
WATCH OUR WEBINAR: Santa Marta – Fossil fuel transition in an unstable world
This is a practical on-ramp for countries that want to align with the global transition but need a concrete, geographically-defined starting point – and as a direct delivery mechanism for the deforestation roadmap, translating a global pledge to halt forest loss into specific action to thwart a real driver of deforestation.
The question is no longer whether fossil fuel extraction will end, but whether that end will be managed or chaotic, putting the planet’s most critical ecosystems in danger. Fossil Free Zones offer a hope of preventing irreversible harm to the forests, marine ecosystems, and Indigenous communities that represent humanity’s best remaining insurance against climate collapse – one territory at a time.
The post Fossil Free Zones can be on-ramps to the clean energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Fossil Free Zones can be on-ramps to the clean energy transition
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