Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Asian extreme weather
SWELTERING: An intense heatwave is sweeping across south and eastern Asia. The Dhaka Tribune said temperatures in Bangladesh have surpassed 40C in many regions and the Daily Star reported that the country recorded at least 23 days “heatwave days” in April. Agence France-Presse reported that Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, reached 40.1C on Wednesday. The Bangkok Post added that temperatures could reach 43C in northern Thailand next week. (See Carbon Brief’s recent on-the-ground reporting on the impacts of climate change on human migration in Thailand.) Schools across the Philippines, Bangladesh and India have been forced to close due to the heat, according to BBC News.
ELECTION HEAT: In India, the heatwave coincides with the country’s six-week general election, in which nearly one billion people are eligible to vote, the New York Times reported. India’s election authorities have set up a taskforce “to review the impact of heatwave[s]” on the election after a significant decrease in voter turnout, the Indian Express said. India’s Economic Times added that temperatures in the country will peak on 27-28 April.
FLOODING: More than 110,000 people have been evacuated from China’s Guangdong province after record-breaking rainfall caused widespread flooding, state news agency Xinhua reported. China Daily said that southern China has experienced more than double the typical rainfall for April. The flooding has caused economic losses exceeding 140m yuan ($19.8m), according to the People’s Daily Online. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that the World Meteorological Organization has published a report warning that climate change “is causing major repercussions across Asia”.
Legal action
HISTORIC ENQUIRY: The Inter-American Court on Human Rights in Barbados is hearing the first part of a “historic” inquiry this week, the Guardian said. The New Humanitarian reported that Colombia and Chile are “asking the hearing to define states’ legal responsibility to combat climate change and prevent it from violating people’s human rights”. It added that the court will hear from Julian Medina, a Colombian fisherman, among others.
HEALTH FAILURE: A group of South Koreans is suing their government for failing to protect 200 people, including young environmental activists and children, by not tackling climate change, Reuters reported. “The proceeding is Asia’s first such climate-related litigation,” the newswire added. Meanwhile, BBC News reported that an Iraqi man is taking legal action against BP, alleging that his late-son’s leukaemia was caused by the oil company’s flaring practices.
SUSPENDED: Meanwhile in the UK, Dr Sarah Benn, a retired GP in Birmingham, has had her medical licence suspended for five months following her involvement with Just Stop Oil protests and risks being stuck off permanently, the Guardian reported. According to the Times, the 57-year-old was previously jailed for 31 days after taking part in three climate protests at an oil terminal in Kingsbury in 2022. There has been backlash to the ruling, which the British Medical Association called “very concerning”, the paper added.
Around the world
- EARTH DAY: US president Joe Biden marked “Earth Day” on Monday by announcing $7bn of investment into solar energy projects, the New York Times reported.
- CONTROVERSIAL TREATY: EU lawmakers have voted “overwhelmingly” for the bloc to leave the international energy charter treaty, according to the Financial Times. The paper called the ruling a “victory for climate advocates”, adding that many think the treaty protects fossil fuels.
- UNHELPFUL SLOGAN: Chris Stark, the outgoing chief executive of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, told the Guardian that “net-zero” has become an “unhelpful” slogan, which is often “associated with the campaigns against it”.
- MEXICAN DROUGHT: Nearly 80% of Mexico’s territory is now under drought conditions, Excélsior reported. EuroNews added that drought, combined with a surge in water demand to grow crops such as avocados, is causing rivers and lakes to dry up in the “once green and lush” state of Michoacan.
- DEADLY FLOODS: Countries across east Africa have been “lashed by relentless downpours in recent weeks”, Al Jazeera reported. The outlet warned that “deadly floods” are sweeping through Kenya’s capital Nairobi.
- CLIMATE RISK: The World Bank is advising South Africa’s national treasury on climate risk strategies, such as taking out climate insurance or setting up contingency funds, following floods which have caused billions of dollars of damage in recent years, reported Bloomberg.
2.4 billion
The number of workers globally expected to face “excessive heat conditions” at some point during their careers, according to an International Labor Organization report covered in the Associated Press.
Latest climate research
- A study in Nature Climate Change found that meteorological definitions for extreme weather events do not fully capture the negative impacts experienced by women in informal settlements.
- The area of land in east Africa affected by combined heatwaves and wildfires could increase by 940% by the end of the century, according to new research in Earth System Dynamics.
- New analysis by the World Weather Attribution service found that the heavy rainfall that hit Oman and the United Arab Emirates recently was 10-40% heavier than it would have been in an El Niño year without climate change.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The past 10 months have all set new all-time monthly global temperature records, with April 2024 on track to extend this streak to 11, wrote Dr Zeke Hausfather in his latest quarterly “state of the climate” report for Carbon Brief. The graph shows monthly temperatures over 1940-2024, plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Based on the year so far and the current El Niño forecast, Carbon Brief estimates that global temperatures in 2024 are likely to average out at around 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Spotlight
Climate science in the courtroom
Last week, a group of 2,000 Swiss women won a landmark case in the European Court of Human Rights. The women, mostly in their 70s, said that their age and gender made them particularly vulnerable to heatwaves linked to climate change. The court ruled that Switzerland’s efforts to meet its emissions targets had been “woefully inadequate”.
At the annual European Geosciences Union (EGU) general assembly in Vienna, Carbon Brief interviews Prof Wim Thiery – a scientist who was involved in multiple conference sessions on climate change and litigation. This interview was edited for length.
Carbon Brief: What types of climate science are used in litigation?
Prof Wim Thiery: Just like how there’s a range of different subfields in climate science, we have a range of different climate cases. For example, there’s attribution science which supports reparation cases. We are seeing carbon budget research and fair-share emission pathways research supporting cases on climate policies. And we’re also seeing future climate impact projections supporting cases that are started by young people around the world.
CB: What science was used in the recent European case?
WT: Impact attribution research played a key role. Recent studies by [Oxford University researcher] Dr Rupert Stewart-Smith and [Swiss epidemiologist] Dr Anna Vicedo-Cabrera, for example, showed that all women in Switzerland are disproportionately at risk of heat-related mortality in Switzerland. So, these are recent scientific publications that were directly mentioned in court and that played an influence on the final court ruling.
CB: Do you think the methods used in attribution science are changing to better support litigation?
WT: We are seeing an evolution in attribution science, whereby we move from the traditional science of long-term trends in climate variables, to the operational ability to – in almost real time – establish the link of climate change with the occurrence of individual extreme events. And we’re seeing a new evolution whereby communities are increasingly looking at impact-relevant variables. Think about inundated areas, lake levels, heatwave mortalities. These are the new target variables of attribution science. This is a new frontier and we are seeing that those studies are directly usable in court cases.
CB: Do you ever worry about your research, or that of your colleagues, becoming ‘too political’?
WT: We are used to, in climate science, working with policymakers and with society. Our research is of direct societal relevance and this is just a new example. For me, this is just another example of working with stakeholders – lawyers are a new group of stakeholders for our community.
There is a very direct and tangible impact when you see that an attribution study or a particular scientific publication is used in a court case and has a direct effect on its evolution. It’s very tangible, the outcomes, and I think that’s something which motivates climate scientists in engaging in this community.
Watch, read, listen
FAKE MEAT: Climate YouTuber Simon Clark has published a video asking: “How green is fake meat, really?” To answer the question, he compared the carbon and land footprints of beef, chicken, pork and mutton with those of major meat substitutes.
GROWING GULLIES: A multimedia-rich BBC News article explained how soil erosion is causing vast gullies and chasms to open up around Latin America and Africa, destroying tens of thousands of homes.
GREENWASHING ADS: The Financial Times and Reuters have taken down “advertorials” paid for by oil giant Saudi Aramco, following allegations of greenwashing and disinformation, DeSmog reported.
Coming up
- 28-30 April: G7 ministers’ meeting on climate, energy and environment, Piemonte, Italy
- 29 April: Parliamentary election, Togo
- 30 April: UN General Assembly thematic event on “the El Niño Phenomenon”, New York, US
- 4 May: Local elections, UK
Pick of the jobs
- Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, head of Asia campaigns and advocacy | Salary: $60,000-80,000. Location: Fully remote (Asia)
- UK Met Office, land observations manager | Salary: £41,725. Location: Exeter, Edinburgh or Watnall
- International Institute for Environment and Development, urban climate resilience lead and principal researcher | Salary: £64,814-80,654. Location: Hybrid within or outside the UK, with occasional travel to the UK offices.
- Climate Analytics, deputy head of climate policy and senior climate science data analyst | Salary: €54,348-84,495 and €64,348-70,944, respectively. Location: Berlin
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 26 April 2024: Extremes grip Asia; Human rights inquiry; Using climate science in court appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 26 April 2024: Extremes grip Asia; Human rights inquiry; Using climate science in court
This is a republication of November’s edition of The Climate Agenda – a subscriber-only newsletter designed to keep you informed of the key events, negotiations and announcements happening every month. If you want to receive The Climate Agenda straight to your inbox at the start of each month, sign up as a subscriber today.
COP31 begins in one week, and we’ll have five specialist reporters on the ground in Antalya, Türkiye, bringing you every development as it happens. From the negotiations to leaders’ speeches and side events, we’ll be there to dissect what it all means for international climate policy on electrification, just transition, adaptation finance and much more.
Here’s what you need to know for November, why it matters and what to expect.
US midterm elections
Tuesday 3 November – United States
The geopolitical highlight for the first week of November is the US midterm elections, which will show whether American voters are in any mood to forgive President Donald Trump for failing to bring down the cost of living. From an energy perspective, his pro-oil and gas stance hasn’t led to cheaper prices for consumers, pushed up by the US-instigated Iran conflict. And his diesel deal with Russia won’t yet have made a difference at the pump.
The key issue for climate and energy policy is whether the Republicans hold onto their governing trifecta. If so, then expect continued dismantling of regulations that protect the environment, as well as strong backing for fossil fuel production. If the Democrats regain control of Congress, which polls suggest is possible, it could trigger a push to restore Biden-era clean energy tax credits, and support states wanting to restart mothballed wind and solar projects.
Data centres have been a hot-wire issue, with growing community opposition to their expansion – partly due to concerns over rising utility bills as the facilities gobble power. Whether Republicans or Democrats win Congress, both are likely to make tech firms pay for the extra electricity production they need, with the latter favouring renewable sources.
Governor races are also taking place in key states for climate issues, including Democrat-run California, which has used the courts to fight Trump’s attacks on clean energy.
Read more: National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN
Read more: The more Europe relies on the US for energy, the more it’s vulnerable to pressure by Trump
COP30 Deforestation and Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmaps
Tuesday 3 November – Brazil
Brazil is set to unveil two global roadmaps: one for transitioning away from fossil fuels, the other for ending deforestation.
The COP30 presidency promised them in the dying hours of the Belém summit last November as a last-minute fix to break a political impasse. Since then, it has been consulting with countries, experts and campaigners around the world to gather ideas and sketch out the elements to include in these blueprints.
Don’t expect the roadmaps to offer any new global targets or give direct instructions on what countries must do, either to cut fossil fuel production and consumption or better protect forests. Rather, Brazil has said the documents will identify barriers and priority actions, highlight existing mechanisms and present a range of options that can be adapted to different national contexts.
It remains unclear what will happen with the reports once they are delivered on Tuesday. At the Bonn talks last June, a group of European and small island nations called for the roadmaps to be brought into the official negotiations, warning that a one-off report won’t cut it. But such efforts would undoubtedly face stiff opposition from fossil fuel-producing nations that objected to drafting the energy transition roadmap within the formal UN process last year.
Read more: European, island states seek clear future for global roadmap to cut fossil fuels
Read more: COP30 roadmap to end deforestation will invite countries to draft domestic plans
Read more: What we need to see in the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels
UNEP Adaptation Gap Report
Wednesday 4 November – Nairobi, Kenya
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) will publish its annual assessment of how well the world is planning, implementing and – crucially – financing measures to cope with worsening climate impacts.
Past editions have made for grim reading. Last year’s report warned of a widening gap between what developing countries need for adaptation and what they can access. It estimated they will need $310–365 billion a year by 2035, which is 12 to 14 times current international flows. The report also found that a goal of doubling international public adaptation finance by 2025 was likely to have been missed.
This year’s edition will be closely watched with adaptation expected to be a big-ticket item at COP31. Governments are likely to discuss the specifics of a commitment to triple adaptation finance for developing nations by 2035, agreed at COP30 last year – particularly what the baseline for that pledge is. Negotiators will be debating how to track progress against the 59 indicators of the Global Goal on Adaptation.
Read more: Editor’s Desk: Nepal’s disaster has laid bare the world’s adaptation accountability gap
Read more: Bonn climate talks end in “gridlock” on adaptation and emissions-cutting
Read more: New data shows rich nations likely missed 2025 goal to double adaptation finance
COP31 Climate Conference
Monday 9 November – Friday 20 November – Antalya, Türkiye
The climate community’s attention turns this month to Antalya for the annual UN climate summit. From the outset, COP31 will have an unprecedented, and potentially explosive, set-up: Türkiye is COP president overseeing the non-negotiated Action Agenda, while Australia runs the negotiations.
Billed, once again, as an “implementation COP”, the talks come amid a global energy crisis largely sparked by the actions of the US government, which is not expected to show up on the Turkish Riviera. It is also the first COP in the era of climate overshoot, coming just weeks after the UN officially confirmed the 1.5C warming limit will be breached and set out a narrow pathway to bring temperatures back down to the most ambitious Paris goal.
Unlike most recent COPs, the formal negotiations lack a clear headline item. Countries are due to establish and define the scope of the Just Transition Mechanism agreed in Belém last year, including its rules, governance and possible funding arrangements. On adaptation, vulnerable countries want a clearer path to delivering last year’s pledge to triple finance by 2035 and to putting the new progress indicators to work on the ground.
Governments are also likely to clash over next steps on the transition away from fossil fuels, and especially over whether the mitigation work programme – the forum dedicated to emission-cutting measures – has any future beyond this year.
Notable events to look out for in Antalya:
Opening session (9 November): The summit kicks off with the customary first-morning plenary. After the usual pageantry from the host nation, negotiating blocs and individual countries will deliver statements setting out their stall for the next two weeks. Watch out for a potential fight over the summit’s agenda – perhaps on issues relating to finance and trade following submissions requesting additional items – also a COP tradition.
Electrification (10 November): On Energy Day, the Turkish presidency is expected to formally launch its flagship electrification pledge, revealing which countries have signed up. Signatories will voluntarily commit to raising electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, though the current text does not require that power to come from clean sources. There is also a question mark over whether and how this can be included in the political cover decision the COP co-hosts have said they will aim to produce.
Leaders Summit (11-12 November): Heads of state and governments will jet into town for the traditional high-level segment in the middle of the first week, where world leaders typically talk up their climate record, air their grievances and call for more action.
Relatively few powerful leaders are on the list this time. Brazil’s Lula is set for another star turn this year, fresh from his surprise election win in October. The UK’s Andy Burnham, Spain’s Pedro Sanchez and China’s vice-premier Ding Xuexiang are expected, alongside Türkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Australia’s Anthony Albanese. In addition, African and small island nations will feature prominently.
Our COP31 Briefing newsletter will offer a more in-depth preview of the talks later this week.
Read more: Early speakers’ list suggests few powerful leaders will attend COP31
Read more: COP31 electrification pledge leaves out clean power commitment
Read more: From Belém to Antalya – gains, gaps and challenges for a new Just Transition Mechanism
International Maritime Organization (IMO) Shipping Talks
Monday 23 November – Friday 4 December – London, United Kingdom
One year on from explosive talks in which Trump’s officials teamed up with Saudi Arabia to delay a deal to make the shipping industry greener, governments will gather on the banks of the Thames for another attempt to reach agreement.
The Net Zero Framework, provisionally agreed in October 2025, includes a series of emissions reduction targets for the owners of large ships along with penalties for not meeting them, rewards for doing so and measures to make the maritime transition fair.
The framework is likely to be either tweaked or radically rewritten so that it’s more acceptable to the US and Saudis. Brazil and Japan have submitted compromise proposals. Analysts find those will move shipping further away from being able to meet its climate goals.
There will be closed-door talks between November 23-27 and a second week of talks open to accredited media from November 30 to December 4. Agreement on a proposal, perhaps decided through a vote, is expected after long and technical negotiations. The shipping industry’s 3% share of the world’s emissions is at stake.
Read more: