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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

This week

Transitioning away?

BIG AUCTION: The US Biden administration raised $382m from the auction of drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico – its largest oil-and-gas lease sale since 2015, according to Reuters. New auctions will not be open until 2025, but possibly under “tighter limits” and with “less territory up for grabs”, Bloomberg noted. It added that this came “just days” after the US pledged at COP28 to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

DISRUPTION: Oil prices surged 3% following attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on ships in the Red Sea, which prompted BP to pause all shipments, the Times explained. The attacks were part of an “escalating campaign against Israel” since the start of its war on Hamas, the newspaper said. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that campaigners have launched two legal challenges against the North Sea Rosebank oil project – the UK’s largest untapped oilfield.

COAL DROP: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that it expected global demand for coal to hit a record high this year, according to the Times. However, it predicted that coal demand will drop next year due to the expansion of renewables in China.

EU climate plans off-track

ROAD TO 2030: EU countries are off track to meet the bloc’s 2030 climate goals, Bloomberg reported, based on a European Commission assessment. It found that current national energy and climate plans would result in a 51% reduction in EU emissions by 2030, falling short of the existing 55% target. 

CO2-FREE POWER: Seven European countries have committed to “eliminat[ing]” carbon dioxide-emitting power plants from their electricity systems by 2035”, according to Reuters. The newswire added that the countries account for nearly half of EU power production, mostly due to the inclusion of Germany and France. 

Around the world

  • CONGO ELECTS: Elections are underway in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), home to one of the world’s largest carbon sinks and minerals that are key for the clean-energy transition, according to Bloomberg. Presidential candidates disagree over plans to hand out oil-and-gas permits in the nation’s vast rainforest, it added.
  • CLIMATE MIGRATION: More than 3 million Americans moved between 2000 and 2020 because of the rising risk of flooding due to climate change, according to a new study reported by CBS News
  • RECORD DENGUE: At least 4.2m cases of dengue have been reported across the Americas in 2023, breaking incidence records since 1980, the Spanish outlet Climática reported. The increase has been attributed to changes in the climate that make conditions more favourable for mosquitos that carry the disease, it added. 
  • AUSSIE EXTREMES: Firefighters tackled dozens of blazes across New South Wales in Australia, including a “giant out-of-control bushfire” in the Pilliga Forest, the Guardian reported. In the north of the country, “record rainfall and dangerous flash flooding” hit parts of Queensland, ABC News said. 
  • DEADLINE: Canada announced new rules to “effectively end sales” of new fossil fuel-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035, according to a report in CBC News
  • NEW LEVY: The UK plans to introduce a “carbon border tax” by 2027 to try to protect British manufacturers in high-emitting sectors, such as steel and cement, and match similar efforts in the EU, the Financial Times explained.

$7tn

Annual public and private capital flows into activities that directly harm nature, in sectors including fossil fuels, agriculture and construction, according to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) State of Finance for Nature 2023 report.


Latest climate research

  • The 120m square kilometres that countries have pledged for “land-based” CO2 removal, such as tree planting, could “potentially conflict” with the Global Biodiversity Framework’s target to protect 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030, according to a Frontiers in Climate paper. 
  • A study published in Climatic Change outlined how the “climate contrarian” US conservative thinktank the Heartland Institute has adapted its messaging over the course of a decade.
  • A new study in Geophysical Research Letters identified an increase in large wildfires across much of the eastern US, including “some of the most populated regions” in the country.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.)

Captured

Chart showing some of the global-north and Latin American nations that publicly issued calls to cut fossil fuels have domestic plans to increase their production of coal, oil and gas by 2030.

The most high-profile debate at COP28 concerned the language around fossil fuels in the final text, with parties ultimately settling on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. This was widely regarded as weaker than calls to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels. However, as climate negotiations-watcher Dr Jen Allan pointed out, data from the most recent UNEP Production Gap report “speaks volumes” about this debate. The chart above shows how some of the global-north and Latin American nations that publicly issued calls to cut fossil fuels have domestic plans to increase their production of coal, oil and gas by 2030. (Note that the UK has announced more support for oil-and-gas licences since these figures were compiled and some nations, such as Brazil, expressed support for a phase-out at COP28, but only if it was led by developed countries.)

Spotlight

How climate change could reduce the ‘value’ of nature

Carbon Brief unpacks a new study, which investigated how climate-induced biome shifts could exacerbate global inequalities.

Is it possible to put a price on nature?

The natural world underpins the fundamental needs of life, such as food, clean air, water and the materials to build shelter. And each of these components has a measurable impact on the global economy.

Analysis from the World Economic Forum suggests that “$44tn of economic value generation – more than half the world’s total GDP – is moderately or highly dependent on nature and its services”.

So what does climate change mean for the global economy?

A new study, published this week in Nature, assessed how “climate change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover” could impact the economy over the coming century. The authors found that, as the planet warms, many biomes such as grasslands and forests are shifting northward. They also highlight a “partial replacement of grasslands with forests” in many regions.

Using data from the World Bank, the authors analysed the contribution of grassland and forest biomes on different countries’ GDP. Their analysis covered products such as timber, as well as less-tangible benefits including “forest-related recreational services” and the “inherent value of protected areas”.

The paper suggested that by the end of the century, under the SSP2-6.0 scenario (which projects warming of around 3.8C by 2100), ecosystem shifts will reduce the financial benefits provided by nature by more than 9%. However, this change is not spread uniformly across the planet.

The authors found that as developing countries are “more reliant on natural capital” than their wealthier counterparts, they will be hit the hardest by the changing ecosystems. The bottom 50% of the countries, in terms of GDP per capita, will bear around 90% of the damages, the paper noted. Meanwhile, the top 10% only face 2% of the losses.

Dr Bernardo Bastien-Olvera – a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography – is the lead author of the study. He told Carbon Brief that some countries, including Australia, the US, Turkey, China, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, may see small benefits from shifting ecosystems. However, he added that these are “minimal”, amounting to only around 3% of the countries’ GDP.

“Our study challenges the common perception that forests are inherently more beneficial than grasslands,” said Bastien-Olvera. He told Carbon Brief that “each ecosystem type holds unique values, and the loss of one cannot be fully compensated by the introduction of another”.

Watch, read, listen

‘CARBON FOOTPRINT’: This week, NPR’s On Point podcast spoke to Prof Geoffrey Supran and climate journalist Amy Westervelt about the origins of the “carbon footprint” and Big Oil’s role in popularising a concept that “individualises the climate crisis”.

DECARBONISING DEVELOPMENT: With the dust finally settling on news from Dubai, Tim Sahay interviewed Navroz Dubash for Phenomenal World on COP28’s hits and misses and what the “developmentalist turn” of climate politics means for an unequal world.

TRANSITION TENSIONS: After reporting on farmers, miners, drivers and others in the EU and UK who shared “a burning sense they weren’t being heard” by policymakers, Politico’s Karl Mathiesen wrote that “the success of the green revolution will depend on… taking into consideration those who will bear its greatest costs”. 

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org

The post DeBriefed 21 December 2023: Major oil auction in US; EU missing targets; Climate change threatens nature’s ‘unique values’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 21 December 2023: Major oil auction in US; EU missing targets; Climate change threatens nature’s ‘unique values’

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Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets

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Government negotiators at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London this week look set to agree that, from 2027, the owners or operators of ships that fail to meet targets to reduce emissions from their fuel should be penalised financially.

Under a compromise proposal put forward by the chair of the talks, shipowners who fail to meet the targets for cleaner fuels will have to make up the difference through a combination of payments to those who have met the targets and money paid into a green fund administered by the IMO.

But, while all major country-negotiating blocks are engaging with this proposal, they remain divided on what these targets should be – and on how steep the penalty should be for failing to meet them.

Small island nations like the Marshall Islands want ambitious emissions-cutting targets and high fees, while some big developing countries like China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want weak targets and low fees.

Hopes fade for climate cash from carbon price on shipping

Governments are in closed-door talks on the issues this week, hoping to reach an agreement by Friday which can be officially signed off at the next set of talks in October.

Two-tier system

The head of the IMO, Arsenio Dominguez, told reporters on Monday that he was convinced an agreement would be reached this week, dismissing the need for a back-up plan. “It’s too easy to be negative in life – that’s not me,” he quipped.

The proposed system includes two targets to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emitted per unit of energy used – one easier to meet and one harder. Those who fail to meet one or both of these targets can either buy “surplus units” from those that meet them or buy “remedial units” from the IMO, or a combination of the two.

The IMO’s new Net Zero Fund will spend the money from the “remedial units” to clean up the maritime sector and compensate for any negative impacts of the transition on developing economies, such as increases in the price of food due to higher shipping costs. Under the current proposal, the money will not be spent on climate action outside the maritime sector.

Brazil’s Belém races to make room for COP30 influx

Governments have accepted that there will be two tiers of remedial units. Ship owners or operators that fail to meet the easier “base” emissions-intensity reduction targets should have to buy more expensive remedial units. Those that fail to meet the harder stretch targets get to buy cheaper remedial units.

Shipping’s remedial units

The price of the more expensive “Tier 2” units will be somewhere between $305-600 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent while the cheaper Tier 1 units will be $50-150 a tonne , according to different countries’ proposals outlined in the chair’s draft text.

Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets

A proposal from “Austria et al” – which is likely to include the European Union – calls for the highest prices of $600 and $150 for Tier 2 and Tier 1 units respectively.

The “Marshall Islands et al” – likely to consist of Pacific and Caribbean Islands and some African and Central American states – wants almost as high prices of $480 and $150 a tonne.

Japan wants the next highest – $450 and $100 – followed by a proposal from Argentina, China and unnamed others of $305 and $50.

Emissions intensity targets

Governments are also split on what the emissions targets should be. The Marshall Islands and its supporters want the highest ambition, followed in descending order by the Austria-led group, Japan, China and Argentina’s supporters, and finally Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s joint proposal with the lowest.

Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets

The Marshall Islands wants the stretch goal to be 100% emissions reductions straight away. This is a variation on their original proposal of a levy, where all emissions are priced at a flat rate. All other proposals want the targets to start very low and ramp up to around 100% by 2050.

At the IMO on Monday, ministers and negotiators from five Pacific nations told reporters they were disappointed that their levy proposal was no longer being considered.

Marshall Islands ambassador Albon Ishoda said this would have been “the best option” but that his nation and its “Caribbean, African and Central American partners and allies” can support the alternative compromise proposal “only if it prices 100% of emissions from the first tonne at no less than $150 a tonne”. “That is what climate science, economic modelling and justice demand,” he said.

Governments set to agree fees for ships that miss green targets
From left to right: Ministers Simon Kofe (Tuvalu), Hilton Kendall (Marshall Islands), Manasseh Maelanga (Solomon Islands), Ro Filipe Tuisawau (Fiji) and Ralph Regenvanu (Vanuatu)

He added later that another “strong red line” negotiating position was that trading of credits should not be part of the agreement. The compromise proposal’s surplus units, earned by those who exceed the emissions reduction targets, are a form of credit trading while its remedial units are not.

Tuvalu’s transport minister Simon Kofe said credit trading would benefit the “bigger countries, the richer countries” which have the “capacity” to make the green transition and punish smaller, developing countries.

Asked if his group would compromise further and accept an agreement if it didn’t get 100% of the emissions targeted straight away, Ishoda said: “Compromise is a necessary process. But, at this point, we are not ready to go back home and say we couldn’t get you the 100% required – because it’s based on the science that we have always been talking about.”

Kofe noted that an impact assessment carried out by the IMO found that a levy on all emissions was fairer, cheaper and more effective than other options under consideration. At the time this study was published last August, Brazil and Argentina labelled it “unacceptable” and “nonsensical”.

But Kofe called for compromise. “The nature of the challenge that we face right now is we can’t have China not being part of the solution or the US or the bigger countries. It has to be reached by consensus,” he said.

“I hope that we can try and appeal to the better conscience – the solution that we’re finding is for humanity not just for ourselves.”

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Analysis: Nearly 60 countries have ‘dramatically’ cut plans to build coal plants since 2015

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Nearly 60 countries have drastically scaled back their plans for building coal-fired power plants since the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to figures released by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

Among those making cuts of 98% or more to their coal-power pipeline are some of the world’s biggest coal users, including Turkey, Vietnam and Japan.

The data also shows that 35 nations eliminated coal from their plans entirely over the past decade, including South Korea and Germany.

Global coal-fired electricity generation has increased since 2015 as more power plants have come online.

But the data on plants in “pre-construction” phases in 2024 shows what GEM calls a “dramatic drop” in proposals for future coal plants.

The number of countries still planning new coal plants has roughly halved to just 33, with the proposed capacity – the maximum electricity output of those proposed plants – dropping by around two-thirds.

China and India, the world’s largest coal consumers, have also both reduced their planned coal capacity by more than 60% over the same timeframe, from a total of 801 gigawatts (GW) to 298GW.

However, both countries still have a large number of coal projects in the pipeline and, together, made up 92% of newly proposed coal capacity globally in 2024.

‘Dramatic drop’

The Paris Agreement in 2015 had major implications for the use of fossil fuels. As the fossil fuel that emits the most carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned, coal has long been viewed by many as requiring a rapid phaseout.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both see steep declines in “unabated” coal use by 2030 as essential to limit global warming to 1.5C.

But coal power capacity has continued to grow, largely driven by China.

Global capacity hit 2,175GW in 2024, up 1% from the year before and 13% higher than in 2015, according to GEM’s global coal-plant tracker.

This growth disguises a collapse in plans for future coal projects.

GEM’s latest analysis charts a decade of developments since the Paris Agreement and the “dramatic drop” in the number of coal plant proposals.

In 2015, coal power capacity in pre-construction – meaning plants that had been announced, or reached either the pre-permit or permitted stage – stood at 1,179GW.

By 2024, this had fallen to 355GW – a 70% drop. This indicates that countries are increasingly turning away from their earlier plans for a continued reliance on coal.

In total, 23 nations reduced the size of their proposals over this period and another 35 completely eliminated coal power from their future energy plans. Together, these 58 countries account for 80% of global fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions.

The chart below shows these changes, with China and India shown on a different x-axis due to the scale of their proposals. (See section below for more information.)

Proposals for new coal plants have been drastically scaled back in some of the most coal-reliant countries over the past decade
Change in proposed coal power capacity (announced, pre-permit and permitted) from
2015 to 2024, gigawatts (GW), in all countries that saw declines over this period. Red arrows indicate countries that no longer have any plans to build coal power plants. Source: Global Energy Monitor.

According to GEM, of the coal plants that were either under pre-construction or construction in 2015, 55% ended up being cancelled, a third were completed and the remainder are still under development.

Many of the nations that have phased coal out of their electricity plans are either very small or only had modest ambitions for building coal power in the first place.

However, the list also includes countries such as Germany and South Korea. These nations are both in the top 10 of global coal consumers, but their governments have committed to significantly reducing or, in Germany’s case, phasing out coal use by the late 2030s.

Turkey, Vietnam and Japan are among the big coal-driven economies that are now approaching having zero new coal plants in the works. All have around 2% of the planned capacity they had a decade ago.

Other major coal consumers have also drastically reduced their coal pipelines. Indonesia, the fifth-biggest coal user, has reduced its coal proposals by 90% and South Africa – the seventh-biggest – has cut its planned capacity by 83%.

Of the 68 countries that were planning to build new coal plants in 2015, just nine have increased their planned capacity. Around 85% of the planned increase in capacity by these nations is in Russia and its central Asian neighbours.

China and India

China is by far the world’s largest coal consumer, with India the second largest.

There was 44GW of coal power added to the global fleet last year. China was responsible for 30.5GW of this while retiring just 2.5GW, and India added 5.8GW while retiring 0.2GW.

Between them, these nations contributed 70% of the global coal-plant construction in 2024.

Nevertheless, there were signs of change as​​ newly operating coal capacity around the world reached its lowest level in 20 years.

China and India have also seen significant drops in their pre-construction coal capacity over the past decade.

In 2015, China had 560GW of coal power in its pipeline and India had 241GW. Both nations have seen their proposed capacity drop by more than 60% to reach 217GW and 81GW, respectively.

While this is a significant reduction, both nations still have more coal capacity planned now than any other nation did in 2015. China’s current 217GW is roughly four times more than the 57GW Turkey was planning at that time.

GEM attributes the “slowdown” in China’s new proposals to the nation’s record-breaking solar and wind growth, which saw more electricity generation capacity installed in 2023 and 2024 than in the rest of the world combined.

As for India, GEM says the “notable declines” in coal proposals and commissions came after a “coal-plant investment bubble that went bust in the early 2010s”.

It notes that India is now “encouraging and fast-tracking the development of large coal plants”. The government has cited the need to meet the large nation’s growing electricity demand, especially due to the increased need for cooling technologies during heatwaves.

As other nations move away from the fossil fuel, coal capacity is likely to become increasingly concentrated in these two nations. Together, they made up 92% of the 116GW in newly proposed capacity last year.

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David Attenborough’s New Documentary: A Call for Action on the Global Ocean Treaty

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Ocean with David Attenborough © Silverback Films and Open Planet Studios Keith Scholey © Silverback Films and Open Planet Studios
Ocean with David Attenborough © Silverback Films and Open Planet Studios

David Attenborough’s voice has been a powerful guide for millions, educating audiences on the wonders of the natural world and the urgent need to protect it. His latest documentary, Ocean with David Attenborough, highlights the majesty and fragility of our ocean. The documentary is a breathtaking reminder of the deep connection between humanity and the ocean, while urging us to take action to safeguard these vital ecosystems. With a global Ocean Treaty on the horizon, this documentary calls for collective action to preserve the ocean that sustains life on Earth.

“This is the story of our ocean. And how we must write its next chapter together. For if we save the sea, we save our world. After a lifetime of filming our planet, I’m sure that nothing is more important.”

-David Attenborough

The powerful documentary film from Silverback Films and Open Planet Studios is set for release as a global cinema event from 8 May (2025), which also coincides with David Attenborough’s 99th birthday. The film will be available on streaming services globally on world oceans day on the 8th of June.

The film’s release is timed ahead of World Ocean Day (8 June 2025), June’s United Nations Ocean Conference 2025 where it will be screened (9 June – 13 June) in Nice, France, and midway through the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030). As world leaders decide the fate of our ocean, Ocean with David Attenborough will show why ocean recovery is vital for stabilising our climate and securing a healthier future for us all, and how marine protection – if immediately implemented – can help to turn the tide.

The Ocean’s Vital Role in Our Planet’s Health

Overfishing, plastic pollution, rising temperatures, and habitat destruction are pushing marine life to the brink. In The Ocean: A Journey with David Attenborough, viewers are invited to witness the wonders of the ocean, from its deepest trenches to its vibrant coral reefs. The film is not just a visual spectacle but also an urgent call for action. Attenborough’s narration, as always, blends awe with concern, urging us to recognise the ocean’s importance and the urgency of preserving it.

“My lifetime has coincided with the great age of ocean discovery. Over the last hundred years, scientists and explorers have revealed remarkable new species, epic migrations and dazzling, complex ecosystems beyond anything I could have imagined as a young man. In this film, we share some of those wonderful discoveries, uncover why our ocean is in such poor health, and, perhaps most importantly, show how it can be restored to health. This could be the moment of change. Nearly every country on Earth has just agreed, on paper, to achieve this bare minimum and protect a third of the ocean. Together, we now face the challenge of making it happen.”

-David Attenborough

Why the Global Ocean Treaty Matters

The Global Ocean Treaty is more than just an environmental issue—it is a matter of global responsibility. All waters of the ocean are interconnected, and its health directly affects all of us. Climate change, pollution and overfishing are pushing the ocean to the brink of collapse. Food security and the livelihoods of billions of people hang in the balance.

After years of campaigning, the first ever Global Ocean Treaty was passed at the UN in 2023, but governments now need to sign it into law, to make protected areas a reality at sea. Time is running out, and reaching this target will require a strong and urgent political response.

Australia has signed but not ratified the Global Ocean Treaty. See the list of countries that have signed and/or ratified the high seas treaty here. The new government must prioritise ratifying as a matter of urgency.

Greenpeace’s call for action is clear: to ensure the protection of 30% of the world’s ocean by 2030. We are pushing for at least 60 countries to ratify by the end of 2025 in order to support the creation of marine protected areas that are off-limits to destructive activities like deep-sea mining and industrial fishing.

In our own backyard, industrial fishing and pollution is putting immense strain on unique and diverse ecosystems. That’s why Greenpeace is campaigning to establish a marine sanctuary in the Tasman Sea.

Our beautiful blue backyard, the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand has complex topography and nutrient-rich currents in these areas that create ideal conditions for species like tuna, whales, seabirds, and ancient corals to thrive. Establishing a sanctuary here would not only safeguard endangered species, like the South Pacific humpback whale and several types of albatross, but also provide a habitat for all marine life to thrive.

The Global Ocean Treaty is an essential tool for protecting life in the high seas. By creating new sanctuaries we can protect the ocean for the future. Join Greenpeace in advocating for the Australian Government to be a leader in protecting the ocean.

Together, we can protect the ocean that sustains us all.

David Attenborough’s New Documentary: A Call for Action on the Global Ocean Treaty

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