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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

1.5C looms

1.5C EXAMINED: The run of record heat last year suggests the world is close to exceeding the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, according to two new studies covered by the Press Association. In 2024, annual average temperatures reached 1.5C for the first time. However, the Paris goal is measured as a 20-year average – meaning breaching 1.5C in a single year does not yet show the target has been crossed, the publication noted.

BREACH IN REACH: The first of the two studies “looked at real-world observations of already reached warming levels…and showed that the first single years exceeding each threshold have consistently fallen with the first 20-year period which averaged the same level of warming”, said the newswire. The findings suggest the Paris goal could be crossed within 10 years – unless there are “stringent” emissions cuts, Agence France-Presse reported. This is in-line with recent estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Carbon Brief.

HEAT GOES ON: The second study explored what the run of temperatures above 1.5C from July 2023 to June 2024 could mean for the Paris Agreement, the Independent reported. It continued: “The study shows that having 12 consecutive months above 1.5C means there’s a 76% chance that we’ve already hit that long-term warming threshold under current climate policies. If this trend continues for 18 consecutive months, the research says, the breach of the Paris Agreement threshold will be virtually certain. January 2025 was the 19th month to cross that mark.”

Around the world

  • BP SWITCH: According to the Times, BP’s chief executive – under pressure from an activist investor – has pledged to “fundamentally reset” the company’s strategy, which is expected to involve a formal ditching of its target to cut oil and gas output and a further scaling back of its renewables projects.
  • 35% RENEWABLE: Under Indonesia’s new electricity plan, the country aims to increase its renewable energy share from 12% to 35% in 2034 by expanding solar, battery, hydro and geothermal capacity, reported Reuters.
  • ‘EXISTENTIAL THREAT’: A first-of-its kind German government report found that climate change poses an “existential threat” to the European Union due to its “destabilising and unequal” effects, reported Politico.
  • COAL ON A HIGH: As covered by Carbon Brief, China’s construction of coal-fired power plants reached a new 10-year high in 2024, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor.
  • ‘100% SUSTAINABLE WOOD’: The UK government agreed a new deal for the Drax power plant – which burns wood pellets to generate electricity – halving its subsidies and requiring all wood to come from “100% sustainable” sources, the Guardian said. Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans had more details.
  • INDIA DEALS: Reuters reported that Nigeria is seeking assistance from India with its energy transition plans. Meanwhile, BBC News reported on the US and India agreeing a new deal that will see more American oil and gas imported by Delhi.

57%

The annual increase in second-hand EV sales in the UK from 2023 to 2024, with 188,382 cars changing hands in 2024, reported BusinessGreen.


Latest climate research

  • New research in npj Climate Action showed that the more pronounced local climate change effects become, the stronger the relationship between a person’s education level and their level of “climate concern”.
  • A new study published in Nature Cities showed that people in more disadvantaged neighbourhoods are more exposed to floods, based on studying nearly 45,000 neighbourhoods in eight Latin American countries between 2000 and 2018.
  • Carbon emissions from permafrost “may pose a considerable risk” to climate mitigation efforts, “even if net-zero and negative emissions are achieved”, according to a new study published in Science Advances.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Nearly 95% of countries miss UN climate pledge deadline

Countries meeting a UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges by 10 February.

Nearly 95% of countries have missed a UN deadline to submit new climate pledges for 2035, Carbon Brief analysis shows. Just 13 of the 195 parties – highlighted on the map above – signed up to the Paris Agreement published their new emissions-cutting plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), by the 10 February deadline. Countries missing the deadline represent 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy, according to Carbon Brief analysis. The US submitted its NDC under the previous Biden administration and has now announced plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

Spotlight

From faint idea to ‘forest twice the size of London’

This week, Carbon Brief takes you behind the scenes of its recent rapid analysis on UK airport expansion.

At the end of January, Carbon Brief published an analysis showing that a forest “twice the size of London” would be needed to offset the emissions from the UK government’s proposed airport expansion.

It was covered widely in the press, featured on an ITV current affairs show and was cited twice by MPs in UK parliament.

The analysis – by myself, Carbon Brief’s data scientist, and policy correspondent Josh Gabbatiss – came together in just a few days. Below, I explain how we undertook the rapid analysis.

Heathrow third runway

In January, UK chancellor Rachel Reeves signalled that the UK government was planning to back a third runway at Heathrow airport, along with the expansion of two other London airports, Luton and Gatwick.

We decided to examine what the “climate cost” of such an expansion would be. The UK has so far done little to align its aviation sector with its net-zero target and this seemed like it could make that target even harder to reach.

The question was how should we go about this? Carbon Brief has previously published a guest post showing that airport expansion was not net-zero compatible and others had published more recent emissions analysis. What more could we add?

For a new angle, we wanted to focus on the extra emissions that would result specifically from the expansion of the three airports.

Calculating airport emissions

We noted that Carbon Brief’s guest post had used estimates for the average emissions per passenger to calculate the extra emissions in the year 2050 from the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK’s official climate advisers.

But calculating the extra emissions for a single year more than two decades in the future did not feel sufficient because the expansions would be operational years before 2050 – and it is the cumulative that matters for global temperatures.

However, calculating cumulative emissions would require modelling based on airport expansion dates.

Assuming the expansions are fully operational by 2040 and using CCC modelling, I produced the first rough chart (below) using pandas, a data analysis tool designed for the Python coding language.

This showed that the expansion of Heathrow, Luton and Gatwick would produce an extra 81m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2050 (in orange on the chart below).

Rough chart for DeBriefed_1

Forest figures

After calculating the extra emissions from the UK’s planned airport expansion, we decided that we needed to come up with a way of contextualising the number for our readers.

This is a common issue for us at Carbon Brief – how to communicate the scale of emissions. The average person does not necessarily know how to interpret 81m tonnes.

It can help to compare it to something more grounded and visible. In this case, we decided to work out how many trees would be needed to absorb all the extra emissions.

First, I redid the analysis with more accurate information on airport-expansion timelines from the Aviation Environment Federation, an NGO focused on the climate impacts of flying, which updated the total to 92m tonnes.

For converting this to trees, I drew on the methods of a previous analysis to get the emissions absorbed per hectare of forest planted over its lifetime.

From this, and assuming that the new forest is planted in 2028, I could calculate the forest area that would need to be planted so that by 2050 it has offset the extra aviation emissions from 2028 to 2050.

Using this, we got a forest “twice the size of Greater London”.

For more context, I added the historical emissions from the aviation sector and separated out each airport’s contribution in the updated chart (below).

Rough chart for DeBriefed

Visualising the headline

The last step of the analysis was to present it in Carbon Brief style. I sent the data to our multimedia team and asked them to add two London-shaped forests to the chart.

Armed with the headline and caption text, the multimedia team turned the data into something visually captivating that could tell the story on its own.

Annual UK aviation emissions, MtCO2e.

If such work interests you, consider applying for our data-analyst vacancy. Deadline: 9am GMT 17 February

Watch, read, listen

CLIMATE BOWL: Super Bowl viewers in Los Angeles were shown the first-ever climate advert from a nonprofit group, showing the progress of climate change through the timeline of a young girl.

BIG SIX WASHING: A DeSmog investigation outlined how the six largest communication companies present themselves as climate friendly while helping to promote fossil fuels.

‘TOTAL WIPEOUT’: A France24 video report highlighted how some lower altitude ski towns are adapting to their new snow-scarce reality in the face of climate change.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 14 February 2025: Nearly 95% of countries miss UN climate deadline; 1.5C on horizon; Behind-the-scenes of CB analysis appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 14 February 2025: Nearly 95% of countries miss UN climate deadline; 1.5C on horizon; Behind-the-scenes of CB analysis

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

        The post Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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        Iran War Shows That Doubling Down on Fossil Fuels Is ‘Delusional,’ UN Climate Chief Says

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        Price spikes from the war highlight the necessity of the renewable energy transition for stability and national security, the U.N. official says.

        The Iran war’s disruption to the global energy market should be a wake-up call for countries that continue to rely on fossil fuels, said United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell in a speech on Monday.

        Iran War Shows That Doubling Down on Fossil Fuels Is ‘Delusional,’ UN Climate Chief Says

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