The voluntary carbon market (VCM) lets companies buy carbon credits to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. AlliedOffsets, a data and technology firm for carbon offsetting, tracks this market closely. Their database covers more than 36,000 projects, over 28,000 buyers, and billions of tons of carbon that have been issued or retired.
The VCM is growing fast. Over the last five years, most buyers have come from technology, telecommunications, and energy. Other sectors, like industrials, manufacturing, financial services, and aviation, also participate, though in smaller amounts.
The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan have the most buyers, showing that developed countries lead the market.
As the market grows, new companies and sectors are expected to join. AlliedOffsets studied over 130,000 companies to predict who will likely buy carbon credits next. This helps sellers, project developers, and policymakers focus their efforts where demand is likely.
LtB Model: Predicting the Next Wave of Credit Buyers
AlliedOffsets uses a model called Likelihood to Buy (LtB). It looks at companies active before and since 2024, and even those that have never bought credits publicly. The company stated:
“Ranking specific companies’ likelihoods and identifying patterns in their unifying traits informs market suppliers and intermediaries about who to pivot engagement towards. Understanding the features that play the greatest roles in determining companies’ likelihoods, meanwhile, is vital for highlighting wider drivers for the growth of the market, which serve as levers for policymakers and signals for companies themselves.”
The model includes data from 36 global registries, covering both non-anonymous purchases and retirements. It looks at several key factors that affect a company’s likelihood to buy, including:
- Abatement potential – how easy it is for the company to reduce emissions.
- Data center usage – companies with large data centers use more energy and may buy more credits.
- Headquarters country – companies in the US, UK, and China lead predicted purchases.
- Internal carbon pricing – companies with higher carbon costs buy more credits.
- Net-zero targets – companies with short-term or long-term climate goals are more likely to buy.
- Sector – aviation, energy, and tech tend to buy more due to rules and public pressure.
- Annual profit or loss – profitable firms are more able to purchase carbon credits.

The model also uses SHAP analysis to show which factors influence predicted buying the most. Companies that recently bought credits are weighted higher. Some sectors, like aviation, are manually marked as high-likelihood because of rules like CORSIA, which requires airlines to offset emissions.
AlliedOffsets also separates companies into new entrants and returning buyers, helping track demand trends.
Forecasted Carbon Credit Demand
AlliedOffsets predicts that new and returning buyers will need about 281 million credits per year. This comes from over 11,500 companies with characteristics similar to current buyers.
The demand by project type is expected to have this composition:

Demand for forestry projects is rising, partly because of forward contracts, which made up 55% of the 147 million credits negotiated in 2025.

By country, the greatest demand will come from the U.S., China, UK, France, Germany, and Brazil.

Aviation will be a big factor because airlines must offset emissions under CORSIA rules. Energy and technology companies in the US, like AT&T, IBM, and Ingram Micro, are likely to enter or re-enter the market.
Moreover, new entrants will expand the buyer base, per AlliedOffsets analysis. These include consumer goods, professional services, healthcare, and industrial firms. Many come from countries with fewer buyers so far, like Turkey and Belgium.
Financial Impact of Returning and New Buyers
AlliedOffsets estimates that new and returning buyers will spend around $2.27 billion per year. Sector contributions are expected as follows, with aviation and energy leading the pack:
- Aviation: over $800 million per year (about one-third of total).
- Energy and Technology & Telecommunications: substantial ongoing purchases, over $300 million a year.
- Consumer services, industrials, financial services, professional services: smaller but steady spend.

Returning buyers bought nearly 7 million credits in previous years. ExxonMobil accounted for 66% of these purchases through both forward contracts and OTC deals. Other companies, like ArcelorMittal, invest in low-emission technology, reducing the need to buy credits.
New entrants, especially airlines, will increase activity. Credits purchased for CORSIA compliance must match emissions for international flights to and from ICAO member states.
Overall, growth in both returning and new buyers shows that corporate demand for carbon credits is likely to rise sharply. Companies that belong to initiatives like RE100, SBTi, Race to Zero, or NZBA are more likely to participate in the voluntary carbon market.
A Turning Point and Future Forecasts: Supply, Demand, and Policy Drivers
In 2025, the voluntary carbon credit market saw big changes. Total retirements fell to about 168 million tonnes, and new issuances dropped to around 270 million tonnes, the lowest since 2020.
Despite this, spending rose to roughly $1.04 billion, up from $980 million in 2024. The average price per credit also climbed to about $6.10, showing that buyers are paying more for high-quality, trusted credits rather than just buying large amounts.

Companies are now choosing credits with strong monitoring and real climate impact. Nature-based projects, like afforestation and reforestation, did better than older REDD+ credits.
Forward contracts also grew, with over $12 billion signed in 2025, even though these will deliver only about 10 million credits a year through 2035. This shows that many companies want to secure the future supply of trusted credits. These trends match forecasts from AlliedOffsets, where demand is expected to rise for durable, high-quality carbon credits.
AlliedOffsets keeps expanding its database, now covering over 60,000 companies. Adding historical emissions data and checking with initiatives like the Forest Stewardship Council and Science Based Targets will improve forecasts.
Analysts expect supply limits may appear in forestry and land use projects as demand grows. Engineered removals, chemical processes, and industrial projects will also get more attention. Large investments by companies like Google and Amazon, which pledged $100 million to superpollutant removal projects by 2030, are expected to drive this.
Returning and new buyers, led by aviation, energy, and tech, will shape the next wave of demand. Understanding these patterns helps policymakers, intermediaries, and project developers plan supply and engagement strategies.
The voluntary carbon market is entering a new growth phase, driven by rules, climate commitments, and better forecasting tools. With models like Likelihood to Buy, market participants can plan ahead. Forestry, renewable energy, and industrial projects are likely to see the biggest benefits as corporate demand grows worldwide.
- READ MORE: The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?
The post Who Will Drive the Next Wave of Carbon Credit Demand? Insights from AlliedOffsets appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
The real cost of 1 tonne of CO2: Translating carbon into hectares
Every business carbon footprint report ends with a number, the amount of carbon emissions produced by the business, less the amount of carbon reduced and offset, given in tonnes of CO₂. Many of the people who sign off on that number, including those who paid for it, cannot picture what it represents on the ground. A tonne is a unit of mass. CO₂ is invisible. The link between the amount offset in the report and a real piece of restored forest somewhere in the world is almost never indicated.
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Carbon Footprint
Finding Nature Based Solutions in Your Supply Chain
Carbon Footprint
How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living
Americans are paying more for insurance, electricity, taxes, and home repairs every year. What many people may not realize is that climate change is already one of the drivers behind those rising costs.
For many households, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue. It is becoming a cost-of-living issue. While climate impacts like melting glaciers and shrinking polar ice can feel distant from everyday life, the financial effects are already showing up in monthly budgets across the country.
Today, a larger share of household income is consumed by fixed costs such as housing, insurance, utilities, and healthcare. (3) Climate change and climate inaction are adding pressure to many of those expenses through higher disaster recovery costs, rising energy demand, infrastructure repairs, and increased insurance risk.
The goal of this article is to help connect climate change to the everyday financial realities people already experience. Regardless of where someone stands on climate policy, it is important to recognize that climate change is already increasing costs for households, businesses, and taxpayers across the United States.
More conservative estimates indicate that the average household has experienced an increase of about $400 per year from observed climate change, while less conservative estimates suggest an increase of $900.(1) Those in more disaster-prone regions of the country face disproportionate costs, with some households experiencing climate-related costs averaging $1,300 per year.(1) Another study found that climate adaptation costs driven by climate change have already consumed over 3% of personal income in the U.S. since 2015.(9) By the end of the century, housing units could spend an additional $5,600 on adaptation costs.(1)
Whether we realize it or not, Americans are already paying for climate change through higher insurance premiums, energy costs, taxes, and infrastructure repairs. These growing expenses are often referred to as climate adaptation costs.
Without meaningful climate action, these costs are expected to continue rising. Choosing not to invest in climate action is also choosing to spend more on climate adaptation.
Here are a few ways climate change is already increasing the cost of living:
- Higher insurance costs from more frequent and severe storms
- Higher energy use during longer and hotter summers
- Higher electricity rates tied to storm recovery and grid upgrades
- Higher government spending and taxpayer-funded disaster recovery costs
The real debate is not whether climate change costs money. Americans are already paying for it. The question is where we want those costs to go. Should we invest more in climate action to help reduce future climate adaptation costs, or continue paying growing recovery and adaptation expenses in everyday life?
How Climate Change Is Increasing Insurance Costs
There is one industry that closely tracks the financial impact of natural disasters: insurance. Insurance companies are focused on assessing risk, estimating damages, and collecting enough revenue to cover losses and remain financially stable.
Comparing the 20-year periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, climate-related disasters increased 83% globally from 3,656 events to 6,681 events. The average time between billion-dollar disasters dropped from 82 days during the 1980s to 16 days during the last 10 years, and in 2025 the average time between disasters fell to just 10 days. (6)
According to the reinsurance firm Munich Re, total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average. Average annual inflation-adjusted costs more than quadrupled from $22.6 billion per year in the 1980s to $102 billion per year in the 2010s. Costs increased further to an average of $153.2 billion annually during 2020–2024, representing another 50% increase over the 2010s. (6)
In the United States, billion-dollar weather and climate disasters have also increased significantly. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from roughly three annually during the 1980s to 19 annually over the last decade. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. recorded 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters respectively, both setting new records. (6)
The growing impact of climate change is one reason insurance costs continue to rise. “There are two things that drive insurance loss costs, which is the frequency of events and how much they cost,” said Robert Passmore, assistant vice president of personal lines at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “So, as these events become more frequent, that’s definitely going to have an impact.” (8)
After adjusting for inflation, insurance costs have steadily increased over time. From 2000 to 2020, insurance costs consistently grew faster than the Consumer Price Index due to rising rebuilding costs and weather-related losses.(3) Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the average home insurance premium increased from $75 to $360 due to climate change impacts, with disaster-prone regions experiencing especially steep increases.(1) Since 2015, homeowners in some regions affected by more extreme weather have seen home insurance costs increased by nearly 57%.(1) Some insurers have also limited or stopped offering coverage in high-risk areas.(7)
For many families, rising insurance costs are no longer occasional financial burdens. They are becoming recurring monthly expenses tied directly to growing climate risk.
How Rising Temperatures Increase Household Energy Costs

The financial impacts of climate change extend beyond insurance. Rising temperatures are also changing how much energy Americans use and how utilities plan for future electricity demand.
Between 1950 and 2010, per capita electricity use increased 10-fold, though usage has flattened or slightly declined since 2012 due to more efficient appliances and LED lighting. (3) A significant share of increased energy demand comes from cooling needs associated with higher temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the United States has experienced increasing Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreasing Heating Degree Days (HDD). Nearly all counties have become warmer over the past three decades, with some areas experiencing several hundred additional cooling degree days, equivalent to roughly one additional degree of warmth on most days. (1) This trend reflects a warming climate where air conditioning demand is increasing while heating demand generally declines. (4)
As temperatures continue rising, households are expected to spend more on cooling than they save on heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2050, national Heating Degree Days will be 11% lower while Cooling Degree Days will be 28% higher than 2021 levels. Cooling demand is projected to rise 2.5 times faster than heating demand declines. (5)
These projections come from energy and infrastructure experts planning for future electricity demand and grid capacity needs. Utilities and grid operators are already preparing for higher peak summer electricity loads caused by rising temperatures. (5)
Longer and hotter summers also affect how homes and buildings are designed. Buildings constructed for past climate conditions may require upgrades such as larger air conditioning systems, stronger insulation, and improved ventilation to remain comfortable and energy efficient in the future. (10)
For many households, this means higher monthly utility bills and potentially higher long-term home improvement costs as temperatures continue to rise.
How Climate Change Affects Electricity Rates
On an inflation-adjusted basis, average U.S. residential electricity rates are slightly lower today than they were 50 years ago. (2) However, climate-related damage to utility infrastructure is creating new upward pressure on electricity costs.
Electric utilities rely heavily on above-ground poles, wires, transformers, and substations that can be damaged by hurricanes, storms, floods, and wildfires. Repairing and upgrading this infrastructure often requires substantial investment.
As a result, utilities are increasing electricity rates in response to wildfire and hurricane events to fund infrastructure repairs and future mitigation efforts. (1) The average cumulative increase in per-household electricity expenditures due to climate-related price changes is approximately $30. (1)
While this increase may appear modest today, utility costs are expected to rise further as climate-related infrastructure damage becomes more frequent and severe.
How Climate Disasters Increase Government Spending and Taxes
Extreme weather events also damage public infrastructure, including roads, schools, bridges, airports, water systems, and emergency services infrastructure. Recovery and rebuilding costs are often funded through taxpayer dollars at the federal, state, and local levels.
The average annual government cost tied to climate-related disaster recovery is estimated at nearly $142 per household. (1) States that frequently experience hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or flooding can face even higher public recovery costs.
These expenses affect taxpayers whether they personally experience a disaster or not. Climate-related recovery spending can increase pressure on public budgets, emergency management systems, and infrastructure funding nationwide.
Reducing Climate Costs Through Climate Action
While this article focuses on the growing financial costs associated with climate change, the issue is not only about money for many people. It is also about recognizing our environmental impact and taking responsibility for reducing it in order to help preserve a healthy planet for future generations.
While individuals alone cannot solve climate change, collective action can help reduce future climate adaptation costs over time.
For those interested in taking action, there are three important steps:
- Estimate your carbon footprint to better understand the emissions connected to your lifestyle and activities.
- Create a plan to gradually reduce emissions through energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and more sustainable choices.
- Address remaining emissions by supporting verified carbon reduction projects through carbon credits.
Carbon credits are one of the most cost-effective tools available for climate action because they help fund projects that generate verified emission reductions at scale. Supporting global emission reduction efforts can help reduce the long-term impacts and costs associated with climate change.
Visit Terrapass to learn more about carbon footprints, carbon credits, and climate action solutions.
The post How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living appeared first on Terrapass.
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