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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

This week

Crude geopolitics

VIOLENT SPIKE: The escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas drove global oil prices up this week, the Times reported. On Monday, Brent crude rose to $88.15 a barrel as markets feared “wider regional instability”, Al Jazeera reported. Amid the violence, Saudi Arabia could hold the “key” to global oil prices, said Bloomberg. On Wednesday, the leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia discussed the “need to end war crimes against Palestine” in their first phone call since resuming ties, Reuters reported. US treasury secretary Janet Yellen indicated that additional sanctions on Iranian oil “could be coming”, the New York Times reported. 

SUBSEA SABOTAGE? Elsewhere, gas prices surged in response to fears that Russia sabotaged an undersea pipeline between Finland and Estonia, the Daily Telegraph reported. Finnish president Sauli Niinistö on Tuesday said the leak had signs of “external activity”, Politico reported, while Iltalehti reported that state and defence authorities suspected Russia being behind the attack.The loss of the pipeline could expose both Finland and Estonia to winter shortages, experts told the New York Times.

1.5C ‘breached’

NEW RECORD: According to an analysis published by BBC News, the world “breached” 1.5C, “a key warming threshold” for a record number of days this year, accounting for “about a third of days in 2023”. The broadcaster clarified that “breaching Paris [Agreement] thresholds doesn’t mean going over them for a day or a week, but instead involves going beyond this limit across a 20- or 30-year average”. Temperatures have also been driven up by the onset of El Niño conditions, the story added.

TEMPERATURE CHECK: Elsewhere, many climate scientists have been left puzzled by “Earth’s fever suddenly spik[ing] so high in September”, Inside Climate News reported. The lack of certainty has sent “a shiver of unease through parts of the climate science community”, with scientists “who have authored important climate science research together” contradicting one another, “at least partly”, about the possible causes, the publication said. Dr Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor, added that the September temperature spike is “certainly pushing the boundaries of model expectations”.

Around the world

  • HEAT ATTRIBUTED: Heat scorching large parts of South America in September was made “100 times more likely” by human-caused climate change, according to a new analysis by the World Weather Attribution initiative.
  • NICKEL DROPS: New data showed that tropical forests occupying an area equivalent to the size of New York have been cleared across 329 nickel mines in Indonesia since 2017 as demand for nickel batteries has increased, the Financial Times reported.
  • COAL RECEIPTS: The Financial Times alleged that the influential Indian conglomerate the Adani Group “inflated” imported coal costs, leading to millions of Indian consumers and businesses overpaying for electricity. The group responded saying it uses an “open, transparent, global bidding process”.
  • ESKOM EXIT: Mpho Makwana has quit as chairman of South African power utility Eskom even as parts of the country reel from floods, Bloomberg reported. It has previously called the gig “the worst job in global energy”.

77

The number of countries that just had their hottest September on record, according to climate science initiative Berkeley Earth.


Latest climate research

  • A new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested that humans are “more vulnerable to moist heat stress than previously proposed”.
  • Warming oceans and oxygen loss could drive a centuries-long irreversible reduction in marine ecosystem habitability, with impacts lasting “well after global temperatures have peaked”, said new research in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.
  • Small Island Developing States could face flood damages 14 times higher than at present under a scenario of very high greenhouse gas emissions and no adaptation, according to a new Nature Sustainability study.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Amount of annual international climate finance provided by the UK from the financial year 2011/12 to 2022/23,

Carbon Brief analysis by Josh Gabbatiss found that the UK has fallen nearly 40% behind on its pledge to rapidly scale up climate finance for developing countries. Instead of increasing steadily to meet a £11.6bn target over five years, the UK’s climate spending abroad has fallen two consecutive years in a row and is off track by around £2bn. The chart above shows the amount of annual international climate finance provided by the UK from the financial year 2011/12 to 2022/23, indicated by the blue line. Dotted lines indicate the annual average spend that would be required to meet the £11.6bn goal by 2025/26, both from a starting point of 2020/21 (yellow) and a starting point of 2022/23 (red). This analysis is from a three-part Carbon Brief investigation into the UK’s international climate finance commitments. Read parts one, two and three – which was covered by the Guardian.

Spotlight

Lessons from Sikkim’s deadly flash floods

Devastating flash floods in India’s north-eastern Himalayan state of Sikkim claimed 37 lives last week, with scores still missing. In the aftermath, Carbon Brief looks at whether authorities were adequately prepared for such an event – and how it could be linked to climate change.

The deadly floods that burst the largest dam in India’s smallest state – the 1,200 MW Teesta III project in Sikkim – have been at the centre of a charged debate on climate change and infrastructure development across the country, after a brutal monsoon in the Himalayan region.

While the event was initially characterised by Indian authorities as a “cloudburst” – an episode of heavy rain – scientists and meteorological experts later confirmed that the floods were caused by a breach of Sikkim’s “largest and the fastest-growing” South Lhonak glacial lake, during an event known as a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). 

“Part of the slope next to the glacier fell and crashed into the lake like the wall of a house, creating a tsunami wave that eventually managed to overtop and erode the dam,” Jakob Steiner, a research fellow at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), told Carbon Brief.

This also caused parts of the glacier to collapse into the lake, he said. Permafrost has been thawing in the region and destabilising the barriers that once held the two kilometre-wide lake in place, he added.

Rainfall, while intense, was “not apocalyptic” in north Sikkim, he said, as data now confirms.

The South Lhonak GLOF had been modelled in a 2021 paper led by scientist Dr Ashim Sattar at the Divecha Institute for Climate Change, who told Carbon Brief that it was “heartbreaking” to see the events in Sikkim unfold. He added:

“Our research did not predict when this is going to happen, but it assessed the potential damage it could have downstream. The science we produce is often restricted to a scientific community, but it has to go to the common people and policymakers.”

Policymakers knew for more than a decade that the area was vulnerable to a GLOF event, according to a report in the Hindustan Times. Since 2006, activists and communities have pointed out that environment impact assessments for the Teesta III dam did not factor in the risk of earthquakes or GLOFs, Scroll.in reported – but authorities did not take action or address blindspots.

Draining glacial lakes before they burst has been attempted in the past, but, according to Sattar, “getting equipment to higher elevations is very, very challenging” and focusing on non-structural measures is also important, such as early warning systems, awareness and resilience-building.

Experts and activists have called for an urgent overhaul of India’s dam safety mechanism.

“We have the data, we have an understanding of the change in the cryosphere, so you can start at 8am tomorrow and do proper risk assessments for each and every valley,” said Steiner. He added that there is a need for central funding for early warning systems, but that this has to be “done together with the people who are supposed to be warned”.

On the question of whether this GLOF was linked to human-caused climate change, he added:

“I don’t need an attribution study to tell you that this glacial lake is linked to a changing climate because it would not have formed if you didn’t have climate change.”

He added that, with continued global emissions, there will be a limit to the degree that Himalayan communities can adapt:

“We don’t have the money or the capacity to keep putting in these early warning systems, while we keep putting more CO2 in the atmosphere. We have to change something at the source. There are many culprits in this murder.”

Watch, read, listen

‘CRUCIAL DECADE’: What does COP28 – its global stocktake, fights over loss and damage funding and 1.5C – mean for developing countries in an “overshoot” world and how should India chart its path in a changing energy, geopolitical and legal landscape? Carbon Brief moderated a discussion with the Centre for Policy Research’s Prof Navroz Dubash, Dr Lavanya Rajamani, Dr Radhika Khosla and Shibani Ghosh.

ARCTIC MONITORS: Scientific American talked to Inuvialuit climate monitors who are recording how climate change is causing their town north of the Arctic Circle in Canada to erode away.

SEEDS OF WAR: Wild Relatives, a film streaming on TrueStory, traced the journey of seeds from the Global Seed Vault in Svalbard to Lebanon, in an attempt to recreate a gene bank destroyed by the outbreak of war.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is written in rotation by Carbon Brief’s team and edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org

The post DeBriefed 13 October 2023: Israel and Hamas conflict hits oil prices; 1.5C ‘breached’; Lessons from India’s flash floods appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 13 October 2023: Israel and Hamas conflict hits oil prices; 1.5C ‘breached’; Lessons from India’s flash floods

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‘Heat Batteries’ Leave Some City Blocks Scorched

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Even measures designed to help, like air conditioning, can create vicious cycles that lead to hotter temps. 

It’s about to get hotter in our nation’s cities. Just how hot it gets depends not only on the weather, but also on infrastructure, working conditions and ZIP codes. 

‘Heat Batteries’ Leave Some City Blocks Scorched

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Climate Change

Türkiye sets COP31 dates and appoints Australian cattle farmer as youth champion

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The Turkish government has announced the dates and venues for the COP31 leaders’ summit and pre-COP meetings, and appointed a Turkish waste campaigner and Australian cattle farmer as climate “champions”.

In an open letter, published by the UN climate body on Tuesday, the Turkish environment minister and COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum said the COP31 World Leaders’ Summit, at which dozens of heads of government are expected, will take place in Antalya, on Türkiye’s south coast, on November 11 and 12.

Previous leaders’ summits have taken place on the first two days of the COP negotiations or, at last year’s conference in Belém, before the start. But this year’s gathering will take place on the third and fourth day (Wednesday and Thursday) of the November 9-20 talks. Kurum said the summit “will be a key moment in generating political momentum and visibility for COP31”.

Last November, when Türkiye was chosen as host of the annual UN climate summit, Kurum said that, while the negotiations would be in the resort city of Antalya, the leaders’ summit would take place in the country’s largest city Istanbul. No explanation for the change of decision was given in Kurum’s letter.

Pacific pre-COP

Every COP conference is preceded by a smaller pre-COP gathering, attended by government climate negotiators. Because of a deal struck with Australia, which gave up its bid to physically host the summit in exchange for leading the COP31 discussions, this year’s pre-COP will take place on the Pacific island of Fiji, with a “leaders’ event” a 2.5-hour flight north in Tuvalu.

Kurum’s letter said both events would take place between October 5-8 and “will contribute to reflecting diverse perspectives in an inclusive manner”.

    The letter confirms that Australia’s climate and energy minister, Chris Bowen, will be given the title of “President of Negotiations” and “will have exclusive authority in leading the COP31 Negotiations, in consultation with Türkiye”.

    “I have complete faith in his work,” said Kurum, adding that the two will send out a joint letter “in the coming weeks” which outlines their priorities regarding the negotiations.

    The COP negotiations will be discussed at the annual Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin on April 21 and 22. German State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth recently announced plans to travel to Australia and meet with Bowen to discuss the talks.

    COP31 champions

    In his letter, Kurum announced that Samed Ağırbaş, president of Türkiye’s Zero Waste Foundation, which was set up by the country’s First Lady, has been appointed as the COP31 Climate High-Level Champion, tasked with working with business, cities and regions and civil society to promote climate action.

    Sally Higgins, a young Australian cattle farmer and sustainability consultant who has also carried out research on land-use change, has been appointed as Youth Climate Champion. Kurum said she “is a passionate advocate for climate change and elevating the voices of young people”.

    Turkish officials Fatma Varank, Halil Hasar and Mehmet Ali Kahraman have been appointed as COP31 CEO, Chief Climate Diplomacy Officer and Director of the COP31 Presidency Office respectively. Deputy environment ministers Ömer Bulut and Burak Demiralp will lead on construction and infrastructure, and operational and logistical processes.

    Kurum said Türkiye’s Presidency would continue to use the Troika approach – a term coined two years ago under Azerbaijan’s COP29 Presidency, which worked with the previous Emirati COP28 and subsequent Brazilian COP30 hosts.

    Kurum said the Troika approach offers “stability and predictability by connecting past, current and future presidencies” and that “in this regard” Türkiye and Australia would work “in close cooperation with Azerbaijan and Brazil”. This appears to overlook the 2027 COP32 host – Ethiopia.

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    Broken debt system must be fixed to confront future climate shocks

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    Mae Buenaventura is the manager of the debt justice programme of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development, a regional alliance of peoples’ movements, community organizations, coalitions, NGOs and networks

    A potentially historic shift in public debt governance is set to unfold in Washington DC this week as Global South governments take a collective stand to stop a “silent killer” of development financing.

    The first-ever UN-hosted borrowers’ forum will officially be launched on April 15 on the sidelines of the 2026 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Led by five convening countries – Zambia, Egypt, Nepal, the Maldives and Pakistan – the initiative is one of the key wins of last year’s 4th Financing for Development Conference (FFD4) in Sevilla, Spain.

    The forum’s mandate is to establish a platform for borrower countries, supported by a UN secretariat, “to discuss technical issues, share information and experiences in addressing debt challenges, increase access to technical assistance and capacity-building in debt management, coordinate approaches and strengthen borrower countries’ voices in the global debt architecture”.

    Instead of facing lenders alone, these countries will now use a UN-backed platform to share technical expertise and coordinate their approach to a global debt system that is fundamentally broken.

    Debt grips climate-vulnerable nations

    The human cost of the current debt architecture is staggering. According to the UN trade and development agency, UNCTAD, more than 40% of the global population – roughly 3.4 billion people – live in countries where the government is forced to spend more on debt payments than on the health, education and social protection of its citizens.

    In so-called low-income countries, governments spend an average of 7.5% of their total budgets on debt service, with interest payments consuming up to 20% of total government revenue in these regions.

    The Philippines is a case study in this financial stranglehold. It is part of a global majority forced to watch its public services crumble and infrastructure lag while its wealth is siphoned off to satisfy foreign lenders.

    The policy of automatic appropriations – a legacy of the rule of late former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. – mandates that debt servicing takes precedence over any other public expenditure, effectively placing the demands of lenders above the needs of the Filipino people. Even as it faces a $1.5 trillion regional financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, its hands remain tied by a legal framework that values credit ratings over human lives.

      As a “middle-income country” (MIC), the Philippines is stuck in a frustrating purgatory. It is often deemed “too wealthy” for the G20’s debt-relief framework, yet too poor to absorb global economic shocks. Last year, Finance Undersecretary Joven Balbosa hit the nail on the head when he called for support that goes “beyond the simplistic income categorization” that ignores a country’s actual vulnerabilities.

      Without an inclusive and equitable global debt architecture, nations including the Philippines are left to navigate catastrophic climate risks and economic shocks with zero fiscal breathing space.

      No respite during climate disasters

      The regional evidence of this systemic failure is everywhere. Take Pakistan, which in 2022 was hit by catastrophic flooding that submerged a third of the country and caused billions in losses. Despite this climate-driven disaster, World Bank data shows that Pakistan made payments in 2023 of $11.8 billion for public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt, while its PPG external debt reached $93 billion that same year, surpassing pre-pandemic debt of $87 billion (2020).

      Sri Lanka followed IMF prescriptions throughout 16 lending programs since 1991, only to become the first Asian country this century to default. Its MIC status prevents application for debt relief and restructuring measures. Today, the Sri Lankan people bear the brunt of harsh conditionalities, including raising VAT from 8% to 15%, slashing food and fuel subsidies, and the erosion of hard-earned worker pensions.

      Residents sit in a Rescue 1122 boat as they evacuate from the flooded area, following monsoon rains and rising water levels of the Chenab River, in Qasim Bela village on the outskirts of Multan in Punjab province, Pakistan, September 11, 2025. REUTERS/Quratulain Asim

      Residents sit in a Rescue 1122 boat as they evacuate from the flooded area, following monsoon rains and rising water levels of the Chenab River, in Qasim Bela village on the outskirts of Multan in Punjab province, Pakistan, September 11, 2025. REUTERS/Quratulain Asim

      Currently, the global rules of lending and borrowing are set by a “creditors’ club” composed of the IMF, the World Bank and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable it set up, and the Paris Club.

      These institutions measure “debt sustainability” through a narrow lens of a country’s capacity to make timely repayments. They largely ignore internal economic inequalities, gender disparities and the existential threat of climate change.

      Crises should trigger debt service cancellation

      By organising the new borrowers’ forum, the Global South is signalling that the era of passive “standard-setting” by lenders is over.

      The ultimate goal for global civil society and debt justice movements is the establishment of a UN Debt Convention; a democratic, binding and inclusive framework that governs both lenders and borrowers. This mechanism would ensure that debt restructuring and cancellation are sufficient to allow countries to fulfill their international human rights obligations and implement necessary climate actions.

      Green Climate Fund picks locations for five developing country hubs

      To be truly transformative, debt sustainability analyses must align with human rights and sustainable development needs. This means conducting impact assessments – both before and after loans are issued – to identify “illegitimate” debts that do not benefit the public.

      Crucially, we need an automatic debt service cancellation mechanism that triggers during extreme climatic, environmental or health shocks. We also need a binding global debt registry to ensure that every loan is transparent and subject to public scrutiny.

      Whether the borrowers’ forum becomes a true milestone depends on its courage to challenge the status quo. We can no longer allow debt to act as a “silent killer” of our future. It is time to demand a financial system that serves humanity, not just the balance sheets of the powerful.

      The post Broken debt system must be fixed to confront future climate shocks appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Broken debt system must be fixed to confront future climate shocks

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