Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Record temperatures
RECORD LEVELS: The Copernicus Climate Change Service has warned that extreme weather across the globe is set to continue, following April marking the 11th month in a row where global average temperatures were at record highs, reported the Financial Times. April was 0.67C above the 1991-2020 average for the month and 1.58C above pre-industrial levels, it added.
SURGING SEA TEMPERATURES: Analysis of the Copernicus data by BBC News found that the world’s oceans have broken temperature records every single day over the past year and, on some days, this has been by a “huge margin”. In February and March 2024, sea surface temperatures reached a new global average daily high of 21.09C, according to the analysis.
Climate scientists speak out
PAST 1.5C: A survey by the Guardian has found that the majority of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperature to rise to at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, given the current level of action by countries. The survey of 380 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists found that almost half anticipate 3C of warming, while only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C limit will be met.
EXHAUSTED EXPERTS: In an accompanying piece in the Guardian, the experts shared their views. One scientist from Mexico told the newspaper she felt “hopeless and broken” by the pace of rising climate impacts, while another expert said thinking of the future was “infuriating, distressing, overwhelming”. A separate piece spoke to the female scientists surveyed, a fifth of whom have decided not to have children or to have fewer.
AVOIDING DESPAIR: The Guardian published an editorial alongside the above articles, urging readers not to despair. Although the “future can feel overwhelming and unfixable”, it notes, we need to “build collective awareness, a sense that change is possible and momentum for wider systemic progress”. Additionally, an opinion article by former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres similarly argues that “stubborn optimism may be our only hope”.
Around the world
- BRAZIL FLOODS: Record-breaking floods in southern Brazil have killed more than 105 people and affected more than 1.7 million, with more rain expected, reported O Globo.
- EU AND CHINA TALK TRADE: EU commissioner Ursula von der Leyen has restated readiness to launch a trade war with China over imports of clean energy technologies during a meeting with president Xi Jinping, reported the Guardian. Elsewhere, the South China Morning Post reported that the new climate envoys from China and the US have met for the first time.
- SOUTH ASIA HEATWAVES: Governments across south and south-east Asia have issued health warnings as schools shut and crops fail, as extreme heat continues to grip the region, the Guardian reported. In the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, five people have been killed by forest fires, reported the Hindustan Times.
- AUSTRALIAN GAS: Australia’s government has announced plans to ramp up the extraction and use of gas to “2050 and beyond”, BBC News reported. The prime minister is now facing an internal revolt from his party, the Guardian added.
- KENYA DAY OF MOURNING: Kenya’s president William Ruto has declared a public day of mourning following the deaths of 238 people due to ongoing flooding, which will be marked by tree-planting, reported the Associated Press.
- LONDON MAYOR: Labour’s Sadiq Khan has pledged further “world-leading green action” after winning a historic third term as London Mayor, reported Bloomberg. Khan’s victory came despite speculation his ambitious air pollution and climate measures could turn off voters.
30%
The proportion of global electricity that came from renewables last year – a new record, according to analysis covered by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- Fewer cooler days due to climate change could make existing varieties of lychee “unsuitable for cultivation in production areas in southern Taiwan”, a new study in Climate Services said.
- Tornado-producing tropical storms may increase “substantially” in the US by 2050 as climate change worsens, new research in Weather and Climate Extremes found.
- New research published in Nature Climate Change found that the transport of ocean heat through the Bering Strait has a more substantial influence on Arctic warming than previously recognised.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
“Residual emissions” are those that remain once a nation has gone as far as it thinks is possible to cut its emissions. These emissions tend to come from sectors that are considered hard to decarbonise, such as livestock farming and heavy industry. The concept is closely tied with net-zero targets. That is, a country must remove CO2 from the atmosphere that is equivalent in volume to its residual emissions, in order to say it has reached net-zero. A new study covered by Carbon Brief explored national strategies for managing residual emissions. Of the 71 countries examined, just 26 have long-term plans to tackle these emissions. These nations could have residual emissions of up to 2.9bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, equal to around 5% of total global emissions. Countries include major emitters such as the US, Canada and Australia (as shown in the above chart). The chart shows residual emissions (red) as a share of each nation’s peak emissions (blue) – or its most recent annual emissions, if its emissions have not yet peaked.
Spotlight
The Thames Barrier at 40
Carbon Brief visits London’s Thames Barrier, the second-largest flood defence barrier in the world, as it turns 40-years-old.
With sea levels rising and flood risks increasing, the UK’s Environment Agency (EA) is working to develop the next era of protections for London and the wider Thames Estuary.
On 25 April, Carbon Brief visited the Thames Barrier to discuss its origins and look forward to its next 40 years.
History
In 1953, London and the east coast of England were devastated by the North Sea Flood, which killed more than 300 people and caused an estimated £50m in damage (approximately £5bn in today’s money) in the region.
While, previously, the UK government had broadly taken a reactive approach to floods, progressively raising the walls and banks of the Thames river, this flood made it clear that such an approach was not sustainable.
In response, one of the first ever “rising sector gates” was built across a 520m-long stretch of the River Thames near Woolwich.
The Thames Barrier was designed by Charles Draper of the London-based Rendel, Palmer and Tritton architectural company, who took inspiration from a gas tap on his cooker. He built a working model in 1969, ahead of construction five years later. The barrier started being used in 1982.
On 8 May 1984, the Queen Elizabeth II officially opened the £535m (£2.4bn in today’s money) Thames Barrier, which remains the second-largest flood defence barrier in the world.
Operation
Now, 40 years on, the Thames Barrier continues to protect 1.4 million people and £321bn of property from tidal flooding.
The Thames Barrier includes 10 steel gates positioned across the width of the river that can be rotated to rise out of the water. Once raised, each 3,300-tonne main gate stands as high as a five-story building and is as wide as the opening of London’s iconic Tower Bridge.
Over the past four decades, it has been closed 221 times for flood defence purposes, including a particular spike in 2013-2014 when it was closed 50 times in 13 weeks.
Andy Batchelor, Thames tidal defences operations manager, who started work at the barrier the day the Queen opened it, said in a statement:
“Having witnessed and worked on the Thames Barrier’s opening, I am immensely proud of the protection it has provided London for the past 40 years and will continue to provide for years to come.
“Its reliability and effectiveness demonstrate the sophistication of its design by a very talented group of engineers and the continued maintenance and operation carried out by the barrier team.”
The next 40 years
The Thames Barrier was only designed to last until 2030. However, the EA, which operates and maintains the site, is confident it will continue to run until 2070.
However, sea levels are predicted to rise 1.5m by the end of the century, increasing the potential for a significant tidal flood. Additionally, with England becoming increasingly wet, the barrier is expected to be called on increasingly – about half of the closures to date have been for river flood protection.
If closing the barrier 50 times in a year becomes the norm, it could fail, the EA has warned, as this does not provide the necessary time for workers to maintain it.
As such, the agency is working on preparing for the next era of flood protection.
The agency is planning to work with partners to continuously review the best available options, including building a new barrier or developing more flood storage, and decide on an end-of-century option by 2040.
Meanwhile, from 2021-27, the government is set to invest £5.6bn in creating new flood and coastal defences to protect hundreds of thousands of properties.
Watch, read, listen
THE $9TN QUESTION: A “big read” in the Financial Times explored how governments worldwide are looking to foot the “immense” bill for the green transition.
BIG BRANDS GREEN CLAIMS: BBC Panorama looked at the “green claims” made by the world’s biggest brands, exposing serious flaws and side-effects of their reliance on carbon offsetting.
ASIAN HEATWAVES: On Himal South Asian’s podcast, environmental social scientist and Carbon Brief contributing editor Dr Chandni Singh discussed why the extreme heat facing the subcontinent this summer is unlike the “heat of the past”.
Coming up
- 13 May: Fourth phase of India’s election
- 14 May: International Energy Agency (IEA) conference on clean cooking in Africa, Paris, France
- 15-17 May: UN Environment Programme: Accelerating urban nature-based solutions: A Latin American-European collaboration, Barcelona, Spain
- 15 May-1 June: IEA-COP29 high-level dialogues, Paris, France
Pick of the jobs
- Carbon Brief, journalist internship | Salary: £13.50 per hour and £100 travel expenses. Location: London
- Conservation International, director of African natural climate solutions roadmap | Salary: Unknown. Location: Nairobi, Kenya
- UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, environmental manager | Salary: £69,485-£76,525. Location: Aberdeen, Birmingham, Cardiff, Darlington, Edinburgh or Salford
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 10 May 2024: 11 months of record heat; Climate scientists ‘hopeless and broken’; 40 years of the Thames Barrier appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.
“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”
“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”
—ENDS—
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.
These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.
However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.
These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.
In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.
The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.
The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.
‘Quietest year’
On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.
Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.
Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:
“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”
Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.
Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.
Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.
The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.
As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.
Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.
Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.
“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”
In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.
Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.
By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.
Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.
Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.
French fires
Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.
The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.
For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.
The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.
The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.
On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.
More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.
In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:
“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”
Central Spain scorched
While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.
The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.
In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.
BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.
Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.
Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.
Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:
“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”
Related
The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
The general public often underestimate support for climate action, while overestimating the real-world actions taken by other people to address the problem, according to new research.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, explores the differences between people’s support for climate change, their behaviour and their assumptions about other people’s behaviour.
It is based on multiple surveys of more than 5,000 people across Germany and the US.
The study expands on previous research on how the general public systematically underestimate the climate commitment of their peers.
The difference between actual and perceived support for climate action among the public is sometimes known as a “perception gap”.
The surveys tested how people’s perceptions of climate attitudes and behaviours relate to their own willingness to contribute and undertake “climate-friendly” actions.
One of the authors tells Carbon Brief that this perception gap is not due to “ignorance or bias”, but because “people are just not good at making good estimations”.
The research also reveals that people’s opinions and behaviours are more “nuanced than previously assumed” and suggests that simply “correcting misperceptions” does not automatically lead to greater climate action.
Measuring climate actions
The study notes that correcting the perception gap is often seen as a “cost-effective” way to promote public engagement and drive action to reduce the intensification and impacts of climate change.
Most studies that explore the perception gap have primarily focused on surveys that have asked people to report their willingness to support climate change.
In other words, researchers have relied upon people saying they would support efforts to tackle climate change, rather than measuring people’s real-world actions, such as financial donations, attending protests or changing their behaviour.
To fill this gap, the researchers behind the new study surveyed a total of more than 5,000 people in Germany and the US over 2024-25. Surveys were split across five different experiments, each focused on public perceptions of climate attitudes and how they relate to individuals’ actual behaviour:
| Experiment | What they did |
| Survey one | Participants were asked if they were willing to donate 1% of their household income to WWF – and then were given the chance to do so. Follow-up questions asked participants to predict how many of their peers said “yes” and how many actually donated to the charity. |
| Survey two | Participants read a constitutional complaint against the German government, led by Greenpeace, which demands for stricter climate policies. They were asked if they were willing to participate as a claimant and/or donate to the cause – and then were given the chance to do so. Follow-up questions asked participants to predict how many of their peers said “yes” and how many went on to support the complaint. |
| Survey three | Participants were requested to complete an online “work for environmental protection task” where the more “pages” they completed resulted in more donations to WWF. They then predicted how many pages their peers completed. Participants also rated their individual behaviours and support for eight climate policies and then estimated the same for other people. |
| Surveys four and five | Participants were split into three groups that were either informed that 4% of participants had donated 1% of their household income to WWF, that “68% were willing to contribute” or given no information. They then had to state whether they were willing to support WWF and then were given the opportunity to do so. |
The authors note that Germany and the US are two of the “top 10 CO2 emitters” and are places where climate action is “especially necessary”. However, they add that the two countries are not reflective of “diverse cultural contexts” and further research is needed across the world.
The perception gap
The researchers find that most of their participants supported climate action, but much fewer actually performed verifiable behaviours.
For example, survey one finds that 37% of participants said they were willing to donate to WWF, yet just 4% did when given the opportunity.
Participants generally overestimated the climate actions of their peers, predicting that 23% of other people donated. Willingness, on the other hand, was slightly underestimated with respondents averaging around 34%.
The results from survey three suggest that this perception gap is likely due to general cognitive processes within the human brain that make accurate estimations about large groups difficult, say the authors.
The chart below shows the actual percentage of people who supported different environmental policies and performed climate-friendly behaviours (blue dots) compared to average predictions from the surveys (red dots).
They reveal a “consistent pattern” where “small proportions were overestimated and large ones were underestimated”, the authors say, driving predictions towards the middle. This phenomenon is known as “regression to the mean”.
In other words, where public support for a policy was high, participants in the survey estimated it was lower than it was. When the support was lower, estimates would be higher.
The study finds that individual and environmental factors played a role in shaping people’s perceptions of their peers’ climate actions, which were distinct from general misestimations.
For example, people who were already involved in climate action, had more frequent climate discussions and consumed more climate-focused news and media predicted a higher proportion of climate support “across the board”.
The results from the fourth and fifth surveys show that knowing the context of other people’s beliefs and behaviour in surveys can impact the attitudes of participants.
Participants that were told that 68% of people were willing to donate 1% of their household income to the WWF were more willing to donate.
In contrast, participants that were told that 4% of people actually donated did not report more willingness to “discuss climate change, sign petitions or donate” than the control group.
However, there was no obvious impact on actual donations for any of the three groups, the study notes.
Lead study author Dr Kevin Tiede, scientific managing director of the Institute for Planetary Health Behaviour at the University of Erfurt, tells Carbon Brief that the findings suggest that “just telling people how many people support climate action is likely not enough to really change something”.
However, Tiede adds that “direct comparability” between people saying they would donate and actually donating is “limited” and that giving people more time to answer and autonomy over where to donate might result in more people taking action.
‘Pluralistic ignorance’
Tiede explains that the study findings demonstrate the existence of “pluralistic ignorance”, where a person believes their own views differ from the majority.
For climate change, this means that the “vast majority of people around the world support climate action, but people considerably underestimate the extent of this support”, the study says.
However, the surveys reveal that pluralistic ignorance “in the climate domain” is more nuanced than previously thought, say the authors.
Prof Madalina Vascleanu, an assistant professor at Stanford University’s Doerr School of Sustainability, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that encouraging climate action is complex.
It may take multiple and repeated “attempts” at effective communication, or for people to directly “experience” the “norm” that climate change is widely supported, she says, rather than simply being told.
“Observable” behaviours, such as “identity signalling” – which could involve anything from protesting to vegetarianism – might have more of an impact on encouraging climate action among peers than “private behaviours like donations”, she adds.
The study is a “great addition to the literature”, Vascleanu says, because “correcting” the perception gap did not have an effect on climate-friendly behaviour, as “scholars had previously assumed”. She adds that it has “sparked several new hypotheses” that her “lab is now working on”.
Prof Mauro Bertolotti, associate professor of social psychology at the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, explains that the “attitude-behaviour gap” revealed by the research is a “rather common finding”.
However, he is “sceptical” of the “simplified and abstract” measures, warning that experiment environments often come with “assumptions and expectations” that are different from real life.
As a result, they might not “replicate” the process people go through when choosing to “make a donation to an environmental cause”, he says.
‘Targeted’ communication strategies
The researchers argue that it is more effective to focus on “targeted” communication strategies – encouraging climate-friendly behaviours that aim to reach the majority who already support climate action, rather than trying to convert climate sceptics.
They call for attention to be paid to the attitude-behaviour gap between people saying they support efforts to tackle climate change and following up with real-world climate actions.
The study suggests strategies for decision-makers to reduce the attitude-behaviour gap, such as “facilitating climate-friendly behaviour” with “convenience and subsidies”. They also recommend ensuring environmental policy prioritises fairness to gain visible and widespread public support.
They add that the public would benefit from understanding the “effectiveness and co-benefits” of climate action.
Tiede, K.E. et al. (2026) People systematically under- and overestimate public engagement in climate action, Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02668-z
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The post Correcting climate ‘misperceptions’ may not boost climate action appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Correcting climate ‘misperceptions’ may not boost climate action
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
Correcting climate ‘misperceptions’ may not boost climate action
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