Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
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Key developments
Poor showing for national biodiversity plans
COP16 COMING UP: Just 10% of countries have submitted updated national biodiversity plans ahead of the COP16 summit, according to Carbon Brief’s tracker (which will be updated again next week). Almost 200 countries agreed to submit new “national biodiversity strategies and action plans”, or NBSAPs, before the UN biodiversity talks, which begin on 21 October in Cali, Colombia. Only 21 plans have been submitted so far. Carbon Brief reported last week that the UK will not publish its plan until the new year, also missing the UN’s COP16 deadline. Separately, a report showed that less than 3% of land in England is “effectively protected”, BusinessGreen said, adding that the UK is falling “badly” behind the pledge to protect 30% of its land and sea by 2030. Elsewhere, Dialogue Earth examined new NBSAP targets from China, the president of the previous biodiversity summit COP15.
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UNITE THE PLEDGES: COP16 hosts Colombia called for national pledges for the biodiversity, climate and desertification COPs to be unified in future, Reuters reported. The country’s environment minister and COP16 president Susana Muhamad said that creating a “synthesis plan”, instead of separate submissions, could improve “synergies” between the interconnected issues. Colombia is among the countries that have not submitted a new NBSAP ahead of COP16. A profile of Muhamad in the Guardian examined how the “Frida Kahlo of environmental geopolitics” went from working as a sustainability consultant at Shell to being “one of the biggest opponents of fossil fuel on the world stage”.
TALKING POINTS: COP16 will focus on “implementation and financing”, the EU’s lead negotiator at the Cali talks, Hugo-Maria Schally, told Agence France-Presse. The Inter Press Service said that key discussions centre on how to “generate financial resources that recognise the contribution of countries that are reservoirs of biodiversity, without resulting in greater indebtedness for nations in the global south”. Latin American civil society groups called for more inclusive biodiversity decision-making involving “ethnic and peasant peoples” and local communities, El Espectador reported. Carbon Brief has just published an interactive table outlining where countries stand on key issues. Five Carbon Brief journalists will be reporting from Cali throughout the summit, so keep an eye out for webinars, analysis and summaries over the next few weeks.
Environment investigations
WATCHING OPPOSITION: A Lighthouse Reports investigation found that the US-based PR firm v-Fluence used US government funding to discredit environmentalists and scientists opposing pesticides and genetically modified crops. The outlet noted that the firm profiled hundreds of scientists, campaigners and writers and published their dossiers on a private social network, providing access to executives at the world’s largest pesticide companies and government officials. It added: “v-Fluence denies having held government contracts now or in the past, but said that the US government was a ‘funder of other organisations with whom we work’.” The Wire added that the company was founded and is still run by a former Monsanto communications director.
FOCUS ON THE SOIL: A collaborative special report, published by Earth Journalism Network, the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigation Network and other outlets, explored the drivers of soil degradation in Asia. The investigation, carried out by 11 journalists from 10 countries, identified persistent problems, such as poor soil-management practices, rapid urbanisation and unsustainable agriculture. The report also explained the consequences of soil degradation and salinisation and potential solutions for soil conservation and regenerative agriculture.
THREATENED WILDLIFE: The Journal revealed how the Irish black market sells foxes, badgers and hares as live bait. The outlet reported that those animals “are being used to ‘blood’ vicious hunting dogs, whose owners engage in brutal acts of wildlife cruelty”, such as illegal hare coursing and dog-on-wildlife attacks. However, their prosecutions “aren’t recorded as criminal convictions”. Meanwhile, vast areas of forests and rainforests in south-west Mexico will be cleared to make way for the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, according to El Universal. The newspaper added that the corridor would industrialise the region, polluting water, land and air and killing wildlife.
Spotlight
‘Now really is nature’s moment’
In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief speaks to Astrid Schomaker, the new executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity – the international agreement behind the upcoming COP16 talks in Cali, Colombia. The full interview will be published on Carbon Brief’s website this week.
Carbon Brief: How are you feeling ahead of COP16?
Astrid Schomaker: Mostly excited and quite optimistic. For us in the convention, it’s a big moment. We had an ambitious framework put in place just two years ago and now we need to look at whether this has actually been the game-changer that people think it has been…Now really is nature’s moment.
CB: What are the main outcomes you want to see from COP16?
AS: The first thing is to have a look at how implementation is actually progressing. We said at COP15 [that] countries should prioritise national targets. So far, we have 79 countries that have put national targets in place. We expect more by COP and maybe also some to be announced at COP…On the national biodiversity strategies and action plans, the number does not look quite so good. We are at 20 so far. Again, we know lots of countries are now finalising their plans, stepping up action. One may think it’s a low number – and certainly this has been pointed out by some NGOs…I think the important thing is to look that progress is there and I’m confident that, by the end of the year, the number will be significantly higher.
CB: President Lula from Brazil and other world leaders will be at COP16. Do you think this will boost the profile of biodiversity COPs?
AS: I think the intention of Colombia as a host – and, of course, we very much support that – is to demonstrate that the nature crisis has to be understood as being at the same level of seriousness as the climate crisis…We will not be able to look at climate change in isolation from the nature and biodiversity crisis…By bringing heads of state and government that are talking about this a lot to our COP, I think we will succeed more to get this message heard by a wider audience.
CB: Azerbaijan recently put its name forward to host the next biodiversity COP summit [in 2026]. What is your reaction to that, especially given some of the controversies around them hosting this year’s climate COP?
AS: We have two offers on the table at the moment – Azerbaijan and Armenia…Hosting a COP is a huge responsibility and I think Azerbaijan experiences this now, as they’re getting ready to host the climate COP. If a country puts itself forward, it puts its national policies under a global spotlight. So I think it takes courage to do it and we’re grateful that we have two candidates that want to host us in 2026.
News and views
ANIMAL IMPACT: Hurricane Helene – which tore through six US states and killed at least 230 people last week – damaged more than 100 poultry facilities and 15 dairy farms in Georgia, Inside Climate News reported. The hurricane “underscore[s] the perils of raising tens of thousands of animals in industrial-scale facilities as weather patterns grow more extreme”, the outlet said. Meanwhile, Florida is set to be hit again by Hurricane Milton, which experts warned may “result in significant losses of vegetables and fruit crops” and could send food prices “sky high”, according to Newsweek. The Washington Post profiled the efforts at Florida’s zoos and aquariums to prepare their animals to withstand the storm.
DIGGING DEEP: The Amazon river is “parched” after being “battered by back-to-back droughts fuelled by climate change”, the New York Times said. It added that water levels in some stretches fell to their lowest level on record last month. Brazil plans to begin “dredging” to deepen parts of the river – a measure the newspaper said “might have been unthinkable not too long ago”. Some scientists warn that this “could leave lasting marks on aquatic systems, disrupting and potentially harming plants and animals”, the newspaper said. Meanwhile, a World Meteorological Organization report found that last year was the “driest” in more than three decades for rivers globally.
NEW GREEN REVOLUTION: The push for a new “green revolution” in Africa is stirring up old debates, Reuters reported. The newswire cited a study that indicates that around 65% of Africa’s farmland is degraded or unproductive due to the overuse of chemical fertilisers, contributing to the food insecurity of more than 270 million people. It added that the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, a coalition of civil societies and farmers’ groups, advocates for a transition to agroecology, while agribusiness companies rely on new technologies for boosting soil health.
DELAY FOR CONSERVATION: The EU intends to delay the implementation of its anti-deforestation law for one year amid growing concerns from international trading partners, the Financial Times reported. The European Commission pointed out that the pause would give countries and companies “additional time to prepare” for implementation. Environmental groups criticised the decision. Julian Oram, senior policy director at Mighty Earth, said the postponement would push “climate and nature goals out of reach”. The European parliament and member states must approve the proposal ahead of the law entering into force on 30 December, according to the outlet.
METHANE MADNESS: The methane emissions from 29 major meat and dairy companies “rival those of the 100 biggest corporations in the fossil fuel sector”, according to a report from Greenpeace. The environmental NGO’s calculations estimate that the 29 companies collectively emit 20m tonnes of methane each year – one-fifth of all livestock methane emissions globally. Greenpeace also estimated that “business as usual” meat and dairy production and consumption could add an extra 0.32C of warming by 2050. Shefali Sharma, a co-author on the report and global agriculture campaigner at Greenpeace Nordic, told Carbon Brief: “For everyday people, that [0.32C] might not mean much. But for those of us who have been following climate, this is huge. So it’s time that we really do take this head on.”
CLIMATE EDUCATION: The Associated Press covered a German programme aiming to educate students, farmers and breweries on climate change. The initiative came up in a plant nursery at the Society of Hop Research in Munich, which holds 7,000 seedlings of hops, many of which are new varieties that are resilient to diseases and drought. The newswire said that the plants will be taken to universities, “vocational schools, breweries and farms across Germany”.
Watch, read, listen
HOME TIES: A new documentary Taste of the Land explored the filmmaker’s relationship with her homeland, Cambodia, and its changing landscapes.
ACCUSATIONS: Also in Cambodia, Mongabay detailed how an environmental journalist covering deforestation “has himself been charged with deforestation”.
WASTE NOT: A Guardian long read examined the “scandal of food waste” and the hurdles standing in the way of reducing it.
BURYING TREES: In this Science podcast, a professor at the University of Maryland explored how burying trees could help sequester carbon emissions.
New science
- If all unmanaged coral reefs were to apply fishing restrictions, reef fish biomass would rise by 10.5%, according to new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Using a conservation model based on 2,600 reef sites, scientists found that current fishing restrictions are responsible for preserving 10% of current fish biomass on reefs.
- Many South American regions experienced a three-fold increase in the number of days with “extreme fire weather conditions” since 1971, according to research published in Communications Earth & Environment. The researchers analysed changes in the weather conditions that can boost fire risk, finding those extremes “disproportionally affect vulnerable rural populations and minorities”.
- More than half of tropical rainforests could turn into dry savannah by the end of this century under a future scenario with very high global greenhouse gas emissions, an npj Climate and Atmospheric Science study found. The researchers wrote that the situation is “more critical” in the Amazon, which may “become an open-canopy, highly degraded ecosystem”, if it hits a tipping point.
In the diary
- 12 October: World Migratory Bird Day
- 21 October-1 November: COP16 UN biodiversity conference | Cali, Colombia
- 22 October: Seminar on “reconciling land uses on a crowded island to achieve net-zero and more” | Oxford, UK and online
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.
The post Cropped 9 October 2024: COP16 looms; ‘Parched’ Amazon river; UN biodiversity chief Q&A appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 9 October 2024: COP16 looms; ‘Parched’ Amazon river; UN biodiversity chief Q&A
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 6 March 2026: Iran energy crisis | China climate plan | Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ wind turbine
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Energy crisis
ENERGY SPIKE: US-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent counterattacks across the Middle East have sent energy prices “soaring”, according to Reuters. The newswire reported that the region “accounts for just under a third of global oil production and almost a fifth of gas”. The Guardian noted that shipping traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, “all but ground to a halt”. The Financial Times reported that attacks by Iran on Middle East energy facilities – notably in Qatar – triggered the “biggest rise in gas prices since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.
‘RISK’ AND ‘BENEFITS’: Bloomberg reported on increases in diesel prices in Europe and the US, speculating that rising fuel costs could be “a risk for president Donald Trump”. US gas producers are “poised to benefit from the big disruption in global supply”, according to