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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Poor showing for national biodiversity plans

COP16 COMING UP: Just 10% of countries have submitted updated national biodiversity plans ahead of the COP16 summit, according to Carbon Brief’s tracker (which will be updated again next week). Almost 200 countries agreed to submit new “national biodiversity strategies and action plans”, or NBSAPs, before the UN biodiversity talks, which begin on 21 October in Cali, Colombia. Only 21 plans have been submitted so far. Carbon Brief reported last week that the UK will not publish its plan until the new year, also missing the UN’s COP16 deadline. Separately, a report showed that less than 3% of land in England is “effectively protected”, BusinessGreen said, adding that the UK is falling “badly” behind the pledge to protect 30% of its land and sea by 2030. Elsewhere, Dialogue Earth examined new NBSAP targets from China, the president of the previous biodiversity summit COP15.

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UNITE THE PLEDGES: COP16 hosts Colombia called for national pledges for the biodiversity, climate and desertification COPs to be unified in future, Reuters reported. The country’s environment minister and COP16 president Susana Muhamad said that creating a “synthesis plan”, instead of separate submissions, could improve “synergies” between the interconnected issues. Colombia is among the countries that have not submitted a new NBSAP ahead of COP16. A profile of Muhamad in the Guardian examined how the “Frida Kahlo of environmental geopolitics” went from working as a sustainability consultant at Shell to being “one of the biggest opponents of fossil fuel on the world stage”. 

TALKING POINTS: COP16 will focus on “implementation and financing”, the EU’s lead negotiator at the Cali talks, Hugo-Maria Schally, told Agence France-Presse. The Inter Press Service said that key discussions centre on how to “generate financial resources that recognise the contribution of countries that are reservoirs of biodiversity, without resulting in greater indebtedness for nations in the global south”. Latin American civil society groups called for more inclusive biodiversity decision-making involving “ethnic and peasant peoples” and local communities, El Espectador reported. Carbon Brief has just published an interactive table outlining where countries stand on key issues. Five Carbon Brief journalists will be reporting from Cali throughout the summit, so keep an eye out for webinars, analysis and summaries over the next few weeks.

Environment investigations

WATCHING OPPOSITION: A Lighthouse Reports investigation found that the US-based PR firm v-Fluence used US government funding to discredit environmentalists and scientists opposing pesticides and genetically modified crops. The outlet noted that the firm profiled hundreds of scientists, campaigners and writers and published their dossiers on a private social network, providing access to executives at the world’s largest pesticide companies and government officials. It added: “v-Fluence denies having held government contracts now or in the past, but said that the US government was a ‘funder of other organisations with whom we work’.” The Wire added that the company was founded and is still run by a former Monsanto communications director.

FOCUS ON THE SOIL: A collaborative special report, published by Earth Journalism Network, the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigation Network and other outlets, explored the drivers of soil degradation in Asia. The investigation, carried out by 11 journalists from 10 countries, identified persistent problems, such as poor soil-management practices, rapid urbanisation and unsustainable agriculture. The report also explained the consequences of soil degradation and salinisation and potential solutions for soil conservation and regenerative agriculture.

THREATENED WILDLIFE: The Journal revealed how the Irish black market sells foxes, badgers and hares as live bait. The outlet reported that those animals “are being used to ‘blood’ vicious hunting dogs, whose owners engage in brutal acts of wildlife cruelty”, such as illegal hare coursing and dog-on-wildlife attacks. However, their prosecutions “aren’t recorded as criminal convictions”. Meanwhile, vast areas of forests and rainforests in south-west Mexico will be cleared to make way for the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, according to El Universal. The newspaper added that the corridor would industrialise the region, polluting water, land and air and killing wildlife. 

Spotlight

‘Now really is nature’s moment’

In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief speaks to Astrid Schomaker, the new executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity – the international agreement behind the upcoming COP16 talks in Cali, Colombia. The full interview will be published on Carbon Brief’s website this week.

Carbon Brief: How are you feeling ahead of COP16?

Astrid Schomaker: Mostly excited and quite optimistic. For us in the convention, it’s a big moment. We had an ambitious framework put in place just two years ago and now we need to look at whether this has actually been the game-changer that people think it has been…Now really is nature’s moment.

CB: What are the main outcomes you want to see from COP16?

AS: The first thing is to have a look at how implementation is actually progressing. We said at COP15 [that] countries should prioritise national targets. So far, we have 79 countries that have put national targets in place. We expect more by COP and maybe also some to be announced at COP…On the national biodiversity strategies and action plans, the number does not look quite so good. We are at 20 so far. Again, we know lots of countries are now finalising their plans, stepping up action. One may think it’s a low number – and certainly this has been pointed out by some NGOs…I think the important thing is to look that progress is there and I’m confident that, by the end of the year, the number will be significantly higher. 

CB: President Lula from Brazil and other world leaders will be at COP16. Do you think this will boost the profile of biodiversity COPs?

AS: I think the intention of Colombia as a host – and, of course, we very much support that – is to demonstrate that the nature crisis has to be understood as being at the same level of seriousness as the climate crisis…We will not be able to look at climate change in isolation from the nature and biodiversity crisis…By bringing heads of state and government that are talking about this a lot to our COP, I think we will succeed more to get this message heard by a wider audience.

CB: Azerbaijan recently put its name forward to host the next biodiversity COP summit [in 2026]. What is your reaction to that, especially given some of the controversies around them hosting this year’s climate COP?

AS: We have two offers on the table at the moment – Azerbaijan and Armenia…Hosting a COP is a huge responsibility and I think Azerbaijan experiences this now, as they’re getting ready to host the climate COP. If a country puts itself forward, it puts its national policies under a global spotlight. So I think it takes courage to do it and we’re grateful that we have two candidates that want to host us in 2026.

News and views

ANIMAL IMPACT: Hurricane Helene – which tore through six US states and killed at least 230 people last week – damaged more than 100 poultry facilities and 15 dairy farms in Georgia, Inside Climate News reported. The hurricane “underscore[s] the perils of raising tens of thousands of animals in industrial-scale facilities as weather patterns grow more extreme”, the outlet said. Meanwhile, Florida is set to be hit again by Hurricane Milton, which experts warned may “result in significant losses of vegetables and fruit crops” and could send food prices “sky high”, according to Newsweek. The Washington Post profiled the efforts at Florida’s zoos and aquariums to prepare their animals to withstand the storm.

DIGGING DEEP: The Amazon river is “parched” after being “battered by back-to-back droughts fuelled by climate change”, the New York Times said. It added that water levels in some stretches fell to their lowest level on record last month. Brazil plans to begin “dredging” to deepen parts of the river – a measure the newspaper said “might have been unthinkable not too long ago”. Some scientists warn that this “could leave lasting marks on aquatic systems, disrupting and potentially harming plants and animals”, the newspaper said. Meanwhile, a World Meteorological Organization report found that last year was the “driest” in more than three decades for rivers globally. 

NEW GREEN REVOLUTION: The push for a new “green revolution” in Africa is stirring up old debates, Reuters reported. The newswire cited a study that indicates that around 65% of Africa’s farmland is degraded or unproductive due to the overuse of chemical fertilisers, contributing to the food insecurity of more than 270 million people. It added that the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, a coalition of civil societies and farmers’ groups, advocates for a transition to agroecology, while agribusiness companies rely on new technologies for boosting soil health. 

DELAY FOR CONSERVATION: The EU intends to delay the implementation of its anti-deforestation law for one year amid growing concerns from international trading partners, the Financial Times reported. The European Commission pointed out that the pause would give countries and companies “additional time to prepare” for implementation. Environmental groups criticised the decision. Julian Oram, senior policy director at Mighty Earth, said the postponement would push “climate and nature goals out of reach”. The European parliament and member states must approve the proposal ahead of the law entering into force on 30 December, according to the outlet.

METHANE MADNESS: The methane emissions from 29 major meat and dairy companies “rival those of the 100 biggest corporations in the fossil fuel sector”, according to a report from Greenpeace. The environmental NGO’s calculations estimate that the 29 companies collectively emit 20m tonnes of methane each year – one-fifth of all livestock methane emissions globally. Greenpeace also estimated that “business as usual” meat and dairy production and consumption could add an extra 0.32C of warming by 2050. Shefali Sharma, a co-author on the report and global agriculture campaigner at Greenpeace Nordic, told Carbon Brief: “For everyday people, that [0.32C] might not mean much. But for those of us who have been following climate, this is huge. So it’s time that we really do take this head on.” 

CLIMATE EDUCATION: The Associated Press covered a German programme aiming to educate students, farmers and breweries on climate change. The initiative came up in a plant nursery at the Society of Hop Research in Munich, which holds 7,000 seedlings of hops, many of which are new varieties that are resilient to diseases and drought. The newswire said that the plants will be taken to universities, “vocational schools, breweries and farms across Germany”.

Watch, read, listen

HOME TIES: A new documentary Taste of the Land explored the filmmaker’s relationship with her homeland, Cambodia, and its changing landscapes.   

ACCUSATIONS: Also in Cambodia, Mongabay detailed how an environmental journalist covering deforestation “has himself been charged with deforestation”.

WASTE NOT: A Guardian long read examined the “scandal of food waste” and the hurdles standing in the way of reducing it.

BURYING TREES: In this Science podcast, a professor at the University of Maryland explored how burying trees could help sequester carbon emissions.

New science

  • If all unmanaged coral reefs were to apply fishing restrictions, reef fish biomass would rise by 10.5%, according to new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Using a conservation model based on 2,600 reef sites, scientists found that current fishing restrictions are responsible for preserving 10% of current fish biomass on reefs.
  • Many South American regions experienced a three-fold increase in the number of days with “extreme fire weather conditions” since 1971, according to research published in Communications Earth & Environment. The researchers analysed changes in the weather conditions that can boost fire risk, finding those extremes “disproportionally affect vulnerable rural populations and minorities”. 
  • More than half of tropical rainforests could turn into dry savannah by the end of this century under a future scenario with very high global greenhouse gas emissions, an npj Climate and Atmospheric Science study found. The researchers wrote that the situation is “more critical” in the Amazon, which may “become an open-canopy, highly degraded ecosystem”, if it hits a tipping point. 

In the diary

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.

The post Cropped 9 October 2024: COP16 looms; ‘Parched’ Amazon river; UN biodiversity chief Q&A appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 9 October 2024: COP16 looms; ‘Parched’ Amazon river; UN biodiversity chief Q&A

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UN adopts first-ever resolution on AI and environment, but omits lifecycle

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The UN Environment Assembly on Friday approved its first-ever resolution to address the environmental aspects of Artificial Intelligence (AI), but it did not include a provision to monitor AI systems across their lifecycle. Experts say this approach is essential to understand AI’s water, power and critical minerals consumption.

The resolution proposed by Kenya aims to harness “the opportunities and benefits of artificial intelligence systems in support of the environment and by minimizing its environmental impacts”.

It also requests the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) to produce a report on the “environmental benefits, risks and impacts of artificial intelligence”.

As negotiations progressed over the week in Nairobi, the draft resolution on AI had called for UNEP’s executive director to explore environmental benefits, risks and impacts of artificial intelligence “systems across their lifecycle”.

However, while governments including Kenya, Norway, Colombia and the European Union supported such wording, annotated draft texts showed that Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates wanted it to be deleted.

When the final resolution was gavelled on Friday, all trace of the AI lifecycle had been removed from the text. References to AI’s water and energy consumption – which featured in previous draft texts – were also removed.

    “We cannot talk about sustainable AI without addressing the full lifecycle, from the traceability of critical minerals, to the water used in data centres, to how much renewable energy is being redirected from developing countries to power AI systems in wealthier regions,” said Faith Munyalo, Kenya’s contact point on AI.

    Munyalo said that while the adoption of the resolution is an important first step, UNEA must now move forward in future negotiations to address the “blind spots” and deliver stronger language and clearer commitments on lifecycle accountability.

    “Sustainability must be built into AI from extraction to disposal, otherwise we risk repeating the same patterns of inequity seen in earlier technological transitions,” she told Climate Home News.

    No direct finance expected

    As the negotiations reached mid-way point on Wednesday, the AI resolution was on the brink of collapse, essentially over finance, which Saudi Arabia and Iran insisted should primarily flow from developed to developing countries while the UK and the EU argued funding should come from all sources.

    Finally, countries landed on a compromise that avoids any obligation for wealthy nations to directly finance AI capacity in the Global South. All countries instead are encouraged to “enhance partnerships” that can mobilise funding, alongside “increased investment, including from the private sector and philanthropy” in AI that supports sustainable development.

    AI is finding greater uses in environmental circles, and in developing countries it is already being deployed, boosting funding needs. For example, Sierra Leone in its new NDC climate plan needs almost $7 million, including from donor countries, to build an AI-based climate and weather forecasting system to improve resilience. Also, in Kenya, AI is helping conservationists monitor forest degradation, launch reforestation and predict carbon storage capacity in new forest areas.

    Kenya’s Munyalo said most data centres are concentrated in developed countries while Africa lacks the expertise and finance to develop its own AI data systems. A lack of direct funding promises puts the burden back on developing countries and could undermine environmental projects like these, she added.

    The closing plenary at the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi on 12 December, 2025.
    The closing plenary at the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi on 12 December, 2025. (Photo: UNEP)

    AI good or bad for energy transition?

    Somya Joshi, research director at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), said AI has critical impacts both for climate and biodiversity and needs to be designed in ways that don’t “replicate the same mistakes we made before with extractive technology transitions”.

    The debate going forward will need to be informed by science and the environmental impacts along the entire AI value chain, she said, including for water, electricity, critical minerals and rare earths to make semi-conductor chips, as well as pollution and what happens to AI systems at the end of their life.

    Joshi said there is a need to prevent growing power demand from AI to reinforce dependency on fossil fuels, which would undermine the clean energy transition.

    UN Secretary-General António Guterres earlier this year made a call for Big Tech to power all data centres with 100% renewables by 2030.

    Data centres accounted for about 1.5% of the world’s electricity consumption in 2024. But this figure is set to more than double by 2030 as tech giants continue to build out the infrastructure needed to support their power-hungry AI technologies.

    While renewable energy sources – combined with batteries – are expected to supply half of the additional electricity, increased demand from data centres will be a “significant” driver of growth for fossil gas and coal-fired generation until the end of this decade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    As the Paris Agreement turns 10, what has it achieved?

    Geopolitics limit Nairobi results

    The resolution on AI was largely seen by observers as a win for the UNEA, which played out in a tense political environment that limited steps forward on a range of key environmental issues.

    The US rejected the outcomes, decrying what it called “climate change theatre”, in line with the denial of climate science by the administration of President Donald Trump and his efforts to thwart climate action.

    Behind the scenes, oil-rich Saudi Arabia and Türkiye – host of the COP31 climate talks next year – pushed to water down wording on climate change including the science of melting glaciers.

    This rejection of well-established evidence elicited strong criticism from small island nations Fiji and Barbados, as well as the European Union and Australia, in the final session of the conference. Speaking at the closing plenary, the EU delegate said the bloc had arrived at UNEA-7 with high hopes for the environment and multilateralism but have to come to terms with the fact that the Assembly could only achieve good results in some resolutions “and less in others”.

    There was also disappointment over a weak resolution on mining and transition minerals, which agreed only on further talks around international co-operation instead of setting up an expert group to identify new instruments to make supply chains greener and more transparent as proposed by Colombia and Oman.

    However, fears that some member states would use UNEA as an opportunity to reopen the mandate to negotiate a global treaty on plastic pollution did not come to pass, according to Andrés del Castillo, Senior Attortney at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL).

    Talks on a new pact were suspended in August as they were unable to reach agreement with fossil fuel-producing countries blocking proposed caps on plastic production – a major market for petrochemicals. They will resume in February with the election of a new chair.

    Del Castillo pointed to the ministerial declaration adopted in Nairobi on Friday, which reaffirms countries’ “shared commitment to engaging constructively and actively, with a sense of urgency and solidarity, to conclude the [plastics] negotiations”.

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    Push for global minerals deal meets opposition, more talks agreed

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    Countries gathered at the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) this week failed to back a proposal to establish a panel of experts to look at ways to limit the environmental harm caused by mining, agreeing instead to hold more talks on tackling the issue.

    A draft resolution proposed by Colombia and Oman had sought to make mineral supply chains more transparent and sustainable amid booming demand for the minerals and metals needed to manufacture batteries, electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines as well as digital and military technologies.

    It had called for the creation of an expert group to identify options for binding and non-binding international instruments to shape global action.

    But amid divisions among nations and staunch opposition by some governments to any process that could eventually lead to binding instruments, country delegates meeting in Nairobi only agreed to a watered-down proposal to hold “dialogues” on “enhancing international cooperation on [the] sustainable management of minerals and metals”.

    Governments also agreed to discuss how to recover minerals from waste, known as tailings, best practices for the sustainable management of minerals and metals, and strengthening the technological, financial and scientific capabilities of developing countries.

      Pedro Cortes, Colombia’s ambassador to Kenya, told an event on Wednesday that the negotiations had been “difficult” but that the agreement will enable governments to continue the discussion.

      Mauricio Cabrera Leal, Colombia’s former vice minister of environmental policy who initiated work on the proposal last year, told Climate Home News that the outcome was not what he had envisaged but said it was “good” in light of the “hard” geopolitics at play in Nairobi.

      Colombia’s push for a minerals treaty

      Colombia has called for an international minerals treaty to define rules and standards to make mineral value chains more traceable and sustainable as the world scrambles to boost supplies of materials needed for the energy transition.

      For resource-rich developing countries, demand for these minerals is an opportunity to diversify their economies, spur development and create jobs. But the extraction and processing of minerals also brings the risk of environmental damage and human rights abuses.

      Victims of Zambian copper mine disaster demand multibillion dollar payout

      Ambassador Cortes told an event on the sidelines of the UNEA that more stringent global oversight was needed.

      “While various efforts have sought to promote the environmentally sustainable management of mining through voluntary guidelines, national legislations and industry-led initiatives, it is clear that greater international cooperation is needed at this critical moment to elevate ambition and accelerate action,” he said.

      “This action will be essential to balance the growing demand for minerals required for the renewable energy transition with the imperative of ensuring environmental integrity and social sustainability,” he added.

      Opposition to binding rules

      But numerous governments – including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran as well as resource-rich Chile, Peru, Argentina and some African countries such as Uganda – opposed any discussion of possible binding rules on mineral value chains, several observers with access to the negotiations told Climate Home News.

      While UNEA resolutions are not legally binding, they can kick off a process towards binding agreements, such as the launch of negotiations on a treaty to end plastics pollution – a process that has since stalled.

      China, which dominates the processing and refining of minerals and metals, stayed largely quiet during the negotiations. But Nana Zhao, an official from the Chinese delegation, told Climate Home News that China was “satisfied” with the wording of the resolution.

      The UNEA should stay focused on environmental matters and not bring in issues relating to supply chains, she added.

      The opening plenary of UNEA-7 in Nairobi, Kenya (Photo: IISD/ENB | Anastasia Rodopoulou)

      An opening for more co-operation

      Campaigners, who are calling for binding rules to prevent environmental and social harms linked to mineral extraction and processing, expressed disappointment at the agreement but welcomed the prospect of further talks on the issue.

      “The initial aim was to start with negotiations for [a] binding treaty and to get countries together to start talking about joint rules,” Johanna Sydow, a resource policy expert who heads the international environmental policy division of Germany’s Heinrich-Böll Foundation, told Climate Home News.

      The agreement reached in Nairobi is “very weak” compared to that initial proposal but it creates the “foundation to stay in dialogue and try to find solutions and work on something constructively”, she said. “This is an opening for more co-operation”.

      UN taskforce to deliver equitable supply chains

      On the sidelines of the assembly, UN agencies launched a taskforce on critical energy transition minerals to coordinate UN activities in building more transparent, sustainable and equitable supply chains.

      The taskforce will help deliver on recommendations by a panel of experts convened by UN Secretary-General António Guterres which called for putting equity and human rights at the core of mineral value chains.

      It will be chaired by the UN Environment Programme, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the UN Development Programme, and draw on expertise across the UN system.

        Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said the sustainable management of minerals cuts across trade, environment and development.

        “Multilateral cooperation and partnerships beyond the UN [are] absolutely essential for us to respond to what we can see is a driving demand and hunger for minerals and metals. But before we have a ‘race’ to this, let’s make sure we look at these aspects that can lead to injustice, environmental harms, biodiversity loss, water pollution and human rights [harms],” she added.

        Suneeta Kaimal, president and CEO of the Natural Resource Governance Institute and a member of the UN panel of experts, said the taskforce was “a timely and necessary step toward making the panel’s ambitions real”.

        “It must work boldly and inclusively with communities and civil society, and it will need political commitment and financial resources – not only technical efforts – to drive a just and equitable new paradigm that safeguards people, ecosystems and economies in producer countries,” she said.

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        Climate Change

        DeBriefed 12 December: EU under ‘pressure’; ‘Unusual warmth’ explained; Rise of climate boardgames

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        Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
        An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

        This week

        EU sets 2040 goal

        CUT CRUNCHED: The EU agreed on a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, reported the EU Observer. The publication said that this agreement is “weaker” than the European Commission’s original proposal as it allows for up to five percentage points of a country’s cuts to be achieved by the use of foreign carbon credits. Even in its weakened form, the goal is “more ambitious than most other major economies’ pledges”, according to Reuters.

        PETROL CAR U-TURN: Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has agreed to “roll back an imminent ban on the sale of new internal combustion-engined cars and vans after late-night negotiations with the leader of the conservative European People’s Party,” reported Euractiv. Car makers will be able to continue selling models with internal combustion engines as long as they reduce emissions on average by 90% by 2035, down from a previously mandated 100% cut. Bloomberg reported that the EU is “weighing a five-year reprieve” to “allow an extension of the use of the combustion engine until 2040 in plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles that include a fuel-powered range extender”.

        CORPORATE PRESSURE: Reuters reported that EU countries and the European parliament struck a deal to “cut corporate sustainability laws, after months of pressure from companies and governments”. It noted that the changes exempt businesses with fewer than 1,000 employees from reporting their environmental and social impact under the corporate sustainability reporting directive. The Guardian wrote that the commission is also considering a rollback of environment rules that could see datacentres, artificial intelligence (AI) gigafactories and affordable housing become exempt from mandatory environmental impact assessments.

        Around the world

        • EXXON BACKPEDALS: The Financial Times reported on ExxonMobil’s plans to “slash low-carbon spending by a third”, amounting to a reduction of $10bn over the next 5 years.
        • VERY HOT: 2025 is “virtually certain” to be the second or third-hottest year on record, according to data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, covered by the Guardian. It reported that global temperatures from January-November were, on average, 1.48C hotter than preindustrial levels.
        • WEBSITE WIPE: Grist reported that the US Environmental Protection Agency has erased references to the human causes of climate change from its website, focusing instead on “natural processes”, such as variations in the Earth’s orbit. On BlueSky, Carbon Brief contributing editor Dr Zack Labe described the removal as “absolutely awful”.
        • UN REPORT: The latest global environment outlook, a largest-of-its-kind UN environment report, “calls for a new approach to jointly tackle the most pressing environmental issues including climate change and biodiversity loss”, according to the Associated Press. However, report co-chair Sir Robert Watson told BBC News that a “small number of countries…hijacked the process”, diluting its potential impact.

        $80bn

        The amount that Chinese firms have committed to clean technology investments overseas in the past year, according to Reuters.


        Latest climate research

        • Increases in heavy rainfall and flooding driven by fossil-fuelled climate change worsened recent floods in Asia | World Weather Attribution
        • Human-caused climate change played a “substantial role” in driving wildfires and subsequent smoke concentrations in the western US between 1992-2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
        • Thousands of land vertebrate species over the coming decades will face extreme heat and “unsuitable habitats” throughout “most, or even all” of their current ranges | Global Change Biology

        (For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

        Captured

        A bar chart showing the five factors that account for most of Earth's 'unusual warmth'.

        The years 2023 and 2024 were the warmest on record – and 2025 looks set to join them in the top three. The causes of this apparent acceleration in global warming have been subject to a lot of attention in both the media and the scientific community. The charts above, drawn from a new Carbon Brief analysis, show how the natural weather phenomenon El Niño, sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from shipping, Chinese SO2, an eruption from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano and solar cycle changes account for most of the “unusual warmth” of recent years. Dark blue bars represent the contribution of individual factors and their uncertainties (hatched areas), the light blue bar shows the combined effects and combination of uncertainties and the red bar shows the actual warming, compared with expectations.

        Spotlight

        Climate change boardgames

        This week, Carbon Brief reports on the rise of climate boardgames.

        Boardgames have always made political arguments. Perhaps the most notorious example is the Landlord’s Game published by US game designer and writer Lizzie Magie in 1906, which was designed to persuade people of the need for a land tax.

        This game was later “adapted” by US salesman Charles Darrow into the game Monopoly, which articulates a very different set of values.

        In this century, game designers have turned to the challenge of climate change.

        Best-selling boardgame franchise Catan has spawned a New Energies edition, where players may choose to “invest in clean energy resources or opt for cheaper fossil fuels, potentially causing disastrous effects for the island”.

        But perhaps the most notable recent release is 2024’s Daybreak, which won the prestigious Kennerspiel des Jahre award (the boardgaming world’s equivalent of the Oscars).

        Rolling the dice

        Designed by gamemakers Matteo Menapace and Matt Leacock, Daybreak sees four players take on the role of global powers: China, the US, Europe and “the majority world”, each with their own strengths and weaknesses.

        Through playing cards representing policy decisions and technologies, players attempt to reach “drawdown”, a state where they are collectively producing less CO2 than they are removing from the atmosphere.

        “Games are good at modelling systems and the climate crisis is a systemic crisis,” Daybreak co-designer Menapace told Carbon Brief.

        In his view, boardgames can be a powerful tool for getting people to think about climate change. He said:

        “In a video game, the rules are often hidden or opaque and strictly enforced by the machine’s code. In contrast, a boardgame requires players to collectively learn, understand and constantly negotiate the rules. The players are the ‘game engine’. While videogames tend to operate on a subconscious level through immersion, boardgames maintain a conscious distance between players and the material objects they manipulate.

        “Whereas videogames often involve atomised or heavily mediated social interactions, boardgames are inherently social experiences. This suggests that playing boardgames may be more conducive to the exploration of conscious, collective, systemic action in response to the climate crisis.”

        Daybreak to Dawn

        Menapace added that he is currently developing “Dawn”, a successor to Daybreak, building on lessons he learned from developing the first game, telling Carbon Brief:

        “I want the next game to be more accessible, especially for schools. We learned that there’s a lot of interest in using Daybreak in an educational context, but it’s often difficult to bring it to a classroom because it takes quite some time to set up and to learn and to play.

        “Something that can be set up quickly and that can be played in half the time, 30 to 45 minutes rather than an hour [to] an hour and a half, is what I’m currently aiming for.”

        Dawn might also introduce a new twist that explores whether countries are truly willing to cooperate on solving climate change – and whether “rogue” actors are capable of derailing progress, he continued:

        “Daybreak makes this big assumption that the world powers are cooperating, or at least they’re not competing, when it comes to climate action. [And] that there are no other forces that get in the way. So, with Dawn, I’m trying to explore that a bit more.

        “Once the core game is working, I’d like to build on top of that some tensions, maybe not perfect cooperation, [with] some rogue players.”

        Watch, read, listen

        WELL WATCHERS: Mother Jones reported on TikTok creators helping to hold oil companies to account for cleaning up abandoned oil wells in Texas.

        RUNNING SHORT: Wired chronicled the failure of carbon removal startup Running Tide, which was backed by Microsoft and other tech giants.

        PARIS IS 10: To mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, climate scientist Prof Piers Forster explained in Climate Home News “why it worked” and “what it needs to do to survive”.

        Coming up

        Pick of the jobs

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        DeBriefed 12 December: EU under ‘pressure’; ‘Unusual warmth’ explained; Rise of climate boardgames

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