Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
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Key developments
Poor showing for national biodiversity plans
COP16 COMING UP: Just 10% of countries have submitted updated national biodiversity plans ahead of the COP16 summit, according to Carbon Brief’s tracker (which will be updated again next week). Almost 200 countries agreed to submit new “national biodiversity strategies and action plans”, or NBSAPs, before the UN biodiversity talks, which begin on 21 October in Cali, Colombia. Only 21 plans have been submitted so far. Carbon Brief reported last week that the UK will not publish its plan until the new year, also missing the UN’s COP16 deadline. Separately, a report showed that less than 3% of land in England is “effectively protected”, BusinessGreen said, adding that the UK is falling “badly” behind the pledge to protect 30% of its land and sea by 2030. Elsewhere, Dialogue Earth examined new NBSAP targets from China, the president of the previous biodiversity summit COP15.
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UNITE THE PLEDGES: COP16 hosts Colombia called for national pledges for the biodiversity, climate and desertification COPs to be unified in future, Reuters reported. The country’s environment minister and COP16 president Susana Muhamad said that creating a “synthesis plan”, instead of separate submissions, could improve “synergies” between the interconnected issues. Colombia is among the countries that have not submitted a new NBSAP ahead of COP16. A profile of Muhamad in the Guardian examined how the “Frida Kahlo of environmental geopolitics” went from working as a sustainability consultant at Shell to being “one of the biggest opponents of fossil fuel on the world stage”.
TALKING POINTS: COP16 will focus on “implementation and financing”, the EU’s lead negotiator at the Cali talks, Hugo-Maria Schally, told Agence France-Presse. The Inter Press Service said that key discussions centre on how to “generate financial resources that recognise the contribution of countries that are reservoirs of biodiversity, without resulting in greater indebtedness for nations in the global south”. Latin American civil society groups called for more inclusive biodiversity decision-making involving “ethnic and peasant peoples” and local communities, El Espectador reported. Carbon Brief has just published an interactive table outlining where countries stand on key issues. Five Carbon Brief journalists will be reporting from Cali throughout the summit, so keep an eye out for webinars, analysis and summaries over the next few weeks.
Environment investigations
WATCHING OPPOSITION: A Lighthouse Reports investigation found that the US-based PR firm v-Fluence used US government funding to discredit environmentalists and scientists opposing pesticides and genetically modified crops. The outlet noted that the firm profiled hundreds of scientists, campaigners and writers and published their dossiers on a private social network, providing access to executives at the world’s largest pesticide companies and government officials. It added: “v-Fluence denies having held government contracts now or in the past, but said that the US government was a ‘funder of other organisations with whom we work’.” The Wire added that the company was founded and is still run by a former Monsanto communications director.
FOCUS ON THE SOIL: A collaborative special report, published by Earth Journalism Network, the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigation Network and other outlets, explored the drivers of soil degradation in Asia. The investigation, carried out by 11 journalists from 10 countries, identified persistent problems, such as poor soil-management practices, rapid urbanisation and unsustainable agriculture. The report also explained the consequences of soil degradation and salinisation and potential solutions for soil conservation and regenerative agriculture.
THREATENED WILDLIFE: The Journal revealed how the Irish black market sells foxes, badgers and hares as live bait. The outlet reported that those animals “are being used to ‘blood’ vicious hunting dogs, whose owners engage in brutal acts of wildlife cruelty”, such as illegal hare coursing and dog-on-wildlife attacks. However, their prosecutions “aren’t recorded as criminal convictions”. Meanwhile, vast areas of forests and rainforests in south-west Mexico will be cleared to make way for the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, according to El Universal. The newspaper added that the corridor would industrialise the region, polluting water, land and air and killing wildlife.
Spotlight
‘Now really is nature’s moment’
In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief speaks to Astrid Schomaker, the new executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity – the international agreement behind the upcoming COP16 talks in Cali, Colombia. The full interview will be published on Carbon Brief’s website this week.
Carbon Brief: How are you feeling ahead of COP16?
Astrid Schomaker: Mostly excited and quite optimistic. For us in the convention, it’s a big moment. We had an ambitious framework put in place just two years ago and now we need to look at whether this has actually been the game-changer that people think it has been…Now really is nature’s moment.
CB: What are the main outcomes you want to see from COP16?
AS: The first thing is to have a look at how implementation is actually progressing. We said at COP15 [that] countries should prioritise national targets. So far, we have 79 countries that have put national targets in place. We expect more by COP and maybe also some to be announced at COP…On the national biodiversity strategies and action plans, the number does not look quite so good. We are at 20 so far. Again, we know lots of countries are now finalising their plans, stepping up action. One may think it’s a low number – and certainly this has been pointed out by some NGOs…I think the important thing is to look that progress is there and I’m confident that, by the end of the year, the number will be significantly higher.
CB: President Lula from Brazil and other world leaders will be at COP16. Do you think this will boost the profile of biodiversity COPs?
AS: I think the intention of Colombia as a host – and, of course, we very much support that – is to demonstrate that the nature crisis has to be understood as being at the same level of seriousness as the climate crisis…We will not be able to look at climate change in isolation from the nature and biodiversity crisis…By bringing heads of state and government that are talking about this a lot to our COP, I think we will succeed more to get this message heard by a wider audience.
CB: Azerbaijan recently put its name forward to host the next biodiversity COP summit [in 2026]. What is your reaction to that, especially given some of the controversies around them hosting this year’s climate COP?
AS: We have two offers on the table at the moment – Azerbaijan and Armenia…Hosting a COP is a huge responsibility and I think Azerbaijan experiences this now, as they’re getting ready to host the climate COP. If a country puts itself forward, it puts its national policies under a global spotlight. So I think it takes courage to do it and we’re grateful that we have two candidates that want to host us in 2026.
News and views
ANIMAL IMPACT: Hurricane Helene – which tore through six US states and killed at least 230 people last week – damaged more than 100 poultry facilities and 15 dairy farms in Georgia, Inside Climate News reported. The hurricane “underscore[s] the perils of raising tens of thousands of animals in industrial-scale facilities as weather patterns grow more extreme”, the outlet said. Meanwhile, Florida is set to be hit again by Hurricane Milton, which experts warned may “result in significant losses of vegetables and fruit crops” and could send food prices “sky high”, according to Newsweek. The Washington Post profiled the efforts at Florida’s zoos and aquariums to prepare their animals to withstand the storm.
DIGGING DEEP: The Amazon river is “parched” after being “battered by back-to-back droughts fuelled by climate change”, the New York Times said. It added that water levels in some stretches fell to their lowest level on record last month. Brazil plans to begin “dredging” to deepen parts of the river – a measure the newspaper said “might have been unthinkable not too long ago”. Some scientists warn that this “could leave lasting marks on aquatic systems, disrupting and potentially harming plants and animals”, the newspaper said. Meanwhile, a World Meteorological Organization report found that last year was the “driest” in more than three decades for rivers globally.
NEW GREEN REVOLUTION: The push for a new “green revolution” in Africa is stirring up old debates, Reuters reported. The newswire cited a study that indicates that around 65% of Africa’s farmland is degraded or unproductive due to the overuse of chemical fertilisers, contributing to the food insecurity of more than 270 million people. It added that the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, a coalition of civil societies and farmers’ groups, advocates for a transition to agroecology, while agribusiness companies rely on new technologies for boosting soil health.
DELAY FOR CONSERVATION: The EU intends to delay the implementation of its anti-deforestation law for one year amid growing concerns from international trading partners, the Financial Times reported. The European Commission pointed out that the pause would give countries and companies “additional time to prepare” for implementation. Environmental groups criticised the decision. Julian Oram, senior policy director at Mighty Earth, said the postponement would push “climate and nature goals out of reach”. The European parliament and member states must approve the proposal ahead of the law entering into force on 30 December, according to the outlet.
METHANE MADNESS: The methane emissions from 29 major meat and dairy companies “rival those of the 100 biggest corporations in the fossil fuel sector”, according to a report from Greenpeace. The environmental NGO’s calculations estimate that the 29 companies collectively emit 20m tonnes of methane each year – one-fifth of all livestock methane emissions globally. Greenpeace also estimated that “business as usual” meat and dairy production and consumption could add an extra 0.32C of warming by 2050. Shefali Sharma, a co-author on the report and global agriculture campaigner at Greenpeace Nordic, told Carbon Brief: “For everyday people, that [0.32C] might not mean much. But for those of us who have been following climate, this is huge. So it’s time that we really do take this head on.”
CLIMATE EDUCATION: The Associated Press covered a German programme aiming to educate students, farmers and breweries on climate change. The initiative came up in a plant nursery at the Society of Hop Research in Munich, which holds 7,000 seedlings of hops, many of which are new varieties that are resilient to diseases and drought. The newswire said that the plants will be taken to universities, “vocational schools, breweries and farms across Germany”.
Watch, read, listen
HOME TIES: A new documentary Taste of the Land explored the filmmaker’s relationship with her homeland, Cambodia, and its changing landscapes.
ACCUSATIONS: Also in Cambodia, Mongabay detailed how an environmental journalist covering deforestation “has himself been charged with deforestation”.
WASTE NOT: A Guardian long read examined the “scandal of food waste” and the hurdles standing in the way of reducing it.
BURYING TREES: In this Science podcast, a professor at the University of Maryland explored how burying trees could help sequester carbon emissions.
New science
- If all unmanaged coral reefs were to apply fishing restrictions, reef fish biomass would rise by 10.5%, according to new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Using a conservation model based on 2,600 reef sites, scientists found that current fishing restrictions are responsible for preserving 10% of current fish biomass on reefs.
- Many South American regions experienced a three-fold increase in the number of days with “extreme fire weather conditions” since 1971, according to research published in Communications Earth & Environment. The researchers analysed changes in the weather conditions that can boost fire risk, finding those extremes “disproportionally affect vulnerable rural populations and minorities”.
- More than half of tropical rainforests could turn into dry savannah by the end of this century under a future scenario with very high global greenhouse gas emissions, an npj Climate and Atmospheric Science study found. The researchers wrote that the situation is “more critical” in the Amazon, which may “become an open-canopy, highly degraded ecosystem”, if it hits a tipping point.
In the diary
- 12 October: World Migratory Bird Day
- 21 October-1 November: COP16 UN biodiversity conference | Cali, Colombia
- 22 October: Seminar on “reconciling land uses on a crowded island to achieve net-zero and more” | Oxford, UK and online
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.
The post Cropped 9 October 2024: COP16 looms; ‘Parched’ Amazon river; UN biodiversity chief Q&A appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 9 October 2024: COP16 looms; ‘Parched’ Amazon river; UN biodiversity chief Q&A
Climate Change
“Sink or swim”: WA Gov hugely underestimating decline in regional gas demand while sleeping on green exports, new report finds
PERTH, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals green commodity exports are an untapped economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, while offering a genuine solution for decarbonising Asia.
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State is a comprehensive analysis of the declining gas market in Asia, and the untapped economic opportunity for WA to become a global leader in green commodity exports while driving the regional shift away from fossil fuels.
The report offers key recommendations for the WA Government to support regional decarbonisation through an orderly phase out of gas exports in favour of green iron and other green exports. It comes as global climate leaders from across business, politics and advocacy prepare to meet for the Global Citizen Now: Perth event focused on decarbonising WA.
Key findings:
- Gas demand is falling across WA’s core markets in Asia: Gas demand fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline, driven by a combination of global geopolitical factors and domestic concerns.
- Policy shifts in key markets since the war on Iran now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas: Japan, South Korea and China have legislated energy plans that prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- New WA gas would arrive in a saturated, uncertain Asian market filled with cheaper gas: The US is now the world’s largest liquefied gas producer and plans to double its capacity as it also targets Asian markets.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to sustain WA’s economy: WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars.
- Exporting more WA gas is likely to delay or impede Asia decarbonisation: Despite claims by the gas industry, there is no evidence that WA gas is displacing coal in Asia, and in fact diverts resources from genuine decarbonisation options.
Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said: “As our export partners in Asia shift away from expensive and polluting gas, the WA Government has a golden opportunity to pivot our economy to green exports, like green iron, which is the most effective way to help our region to decarbonise.
“The writing is on the wall: gas is in decline, renewables are our future. In this context, it makes zero sense for the government to encourage high risk projects like Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal at Scott Reef.
“This report clearly shows that the WA Government faces a choice: sink or swim. They can either allow the gas industry to keep ripping off West Australians and continue propping up its decline, or choose the path that will deliver enormous benefits to the state and the world by becoming a leader in the rapidly expanding green economy.”
Tom Quinn, Managing Director of Springmount Advisory: “Western Australia prospers when it looks to the future and builds for future demand. Twenty years from now, what the world needs is green commodities made using WAs abundant renewable resources. Just like it did with iron ore in the 1950s and gas in the 1970s, WA should look to the future and build what the world will need, not sunsetting industries like gas that are already past their peak.”
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Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lucy.keller@greenpeace.org
A report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals the untapped green economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, which also offers a genuine solution for decarbonisation in Asia.
Is Western Australia clinging to a fading gas industry while a thriving green future passes it by? As major Asian trading partners rapidly pivot away from volatile gas imports toward cheap solar and battery storage, this report exposes a high-stakes choice: risk becoming stranded in an oversupplied fossil fuel market, or harness WA’s unmatched sun and wind to lead the global clean energy transition.
Summary
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State reveals that Western Australia (WA) faces a critical juncture as falling Asian gas demand, geopolitical gas supply volatility and accelerating renewable energy deployment undermine the long-term economic viability of gas exports. By harnessing its world-class wind and solar resources, the report demonstrates that WA can execute an orderly phase-out of gas and pioneer a green commodity export economy that could generate $987 billion in economic value by 2060, create 24,000 ongoing jobs, and drive a 9.6% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Key Findings
- Gas demand is falling in Asia – WA can no longer rely on gas exports: Gas demand in core Asian markets fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline in 2026. Legislated energy plans in Japan, South Korea, and China now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- Asia is increasing renewables, importing gas just gets in the way: Evidence from markets like Thailand suggests that gas imports are increasingly crowding out cheaper renewable energy investments and battery storage rather than displacing coal, locking in more emissions over time.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to decarbonise Asia – this is a major win for WA: With world-class renewables, WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars ($987 billion) and support a genuine 9.6% reduction in global emissions.
Recommendations to WA government
Recommendation 1: Plan an orderly gas phase-out aligned with a trading partner pivot plan
Implement a managed, orderly phase-out of gas exports aligned with trading partners’ decarbonisation pathways, rather than waiting for demand to collapse, by:
- Developing and implementing a staged phase-out of gas facilities aligned with feedstock supply expiry or typical end of facility lifespans.
- Committing to no new gas development for gas expansion, including Browse and Kimberley fields.
- Developing new, reciprocal trade relationships with existing gas trade partners, structured to progressively replace gas exports with green commodities – integrated with recommendation 2.
Recommendation 2: Develop an integrated green commodity export strategy, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub
Establish an integrated green commodity export strategy that immediately prioritises green iron development, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub, by:
- Committing to green commodity export targets to give industry and investors a clear demand signal.
- Prioritising green iron as the lead sector within the broader green commodity strategy, given WA’s iron ore endowment and first-mover potential.
Recommendation 3: Reject false solutions such as carbon dumping (CCS) and blue hydrogen
Reject carbon dumping (also described as carbon capture and storage, or CCS) and blue hydrogen as viable decarbonisation technologies, and prioritise green hydrogen and proven renewables for clean energy and fuel production by:
- Excluding blue hydrogen projects (and CCS-dependent projects) from all government support programs.
- Requiring existing hydrogen-based production (including ammonia, methanol, synthetic fuels) to have clear, near-term transition timelines to switch to green hydrogen production.
What you can do
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