We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
‘Tricks’ and ‘cover-ups’
LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS: Climate scientists speaking to the Financial Times accused the governments of New Zealand and Ireland of using an “accounting trick” to “cover up” methane emissions from their livestock sectors. An open letter from 26 climate scientists and covered by the newspaper said that New Zealand’s “proposed new methane targets risk setting a dangerous precedent”. The title added that scientists have separately raised concerns about Ireland’s approach.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: The controversy hinges on a way for measuring the impact of methane emissions on climate change, called “global warming potential star” (GWP*), the FT said. This method “estimates [methane’s] contribution to warming based on how emissions are changing relative to a baseline”. By contrast, the “long-established approach” used by most countries “compares the total warming impact of a given mass of methane to the same mass of [carbon dioxide] over a 100-year period”, the newspaper said.
‘MISAPPLICATION’: The scientists told the FT that some governments are “misapplying” GWP* to justify setting “no additional warming” targets, which allow methane emissions to remain flat rather than decline. The governments of Ireland and New Zealand did not respond to the newspaper’s requests for comment. But the newspaper added that “proponents” of the GWP* typically argue that it “better reflects methane’s short-lived nature in the atmosphere compared to the long-lasting effects of CO2”. One of the scientists behind the letter explained more of his thoughts in a LinkedIn post. A scientist not involved in the letter also posted a response.
SOMETHING FISHY: Elsewhere, an investigation by DeSmog and the Guardian has alleged that several UK supermarkets have sold seabass linked to “devastating overfishing” in Senegal. The two publications said that the retailers are accused of selling fish from Turkish farms that import large quantities of “fishmeal” – ground up fish used as feed – sourced from the African nation. Overfishing for fishmeal in Senegal is linked to “unemployment” and “food insecurity”, according to the Guardian. Responding to the claims, several of the supermarkets said they do not currently source from the implicated farms, but declined to say whether they had in the past.
Wild weather worldwide
EARLY MONSOON MAYHEM: An “unprecedented” early monsoon caught India’s farmers off guard, with “massive crop losses in states such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat”, IndiaSpend reported. Climate scientists attributed the pre-monsoon thunderstorms to “unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific since 2023” and a higher frequency of “western disturbances” – extratropical storms originating over the Mediterranean. In the past week, north-eastern India has been battered by flash floods and landslides, with “at least 32 people killed and tens of thousands displaced”, the Independent reported. The newspaper noted that “studies show the monsoon in south Asia is getting worse due to the climate crisis”.
DELUGE AND DROUGHT: BBC News reported that more than 700 people are believed to be dead after “devastating” floods hit Nigeria, with the farming region of Mokwa witnessing “the worst [floods] in the area for 60 years”. Separately, Reuters reported that China’s south-western Yunnan province was hit by “flash floods and mudslides”, triggered by heavy rainfall. In unconnected reporting, Bloomberg said that China had stepped up cloud seeding to “bolster rainfall across parched wheat-growing areas” in the north, adding that the country had ramped up “weather modification” investments as “climate change heightens food security risks.”
CANADA BURNS: Canada’s prairie provinces continued to reel from “record-breaking” early-season wildfires, the Guardian reported. It pointed out that in Manitoba alone, wildfires have burned “about 200,000 hectares already this year” – three times “the recent full-year average”. Manitoba premier Wab Kinew said that simultaneous fires “in every region” were a “sign of a changing climate that we are going to have to adapt to”. The Guardian added that First Nations peoples in Saskatchewan – one of three recognised Indigenous peoples in Canada – “have been particularly affected, with some entire communities evacuated”.
Spotlight
UK’s former lead negotiator on UN nature talks
In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief speaks to the UK’s former lead UN negotiator about the successes and challenges of international nature talks.
Will Lockhart OBE represented the UK in UN nature negotiations from 2021 until the end of COP16 talks in Rome in February of this year.
In 2022, he helped to negotiate the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), a landmark deal which has a headline “mission” to “halt and reverse” nature loss by 2030.
Following his departure from government, he spoke to Carbon Brief about his highs and lows, whether the world is making progress towards meeting its biodiversity goals and the role of UN summits – called COPs – in tackling environmental issues.
Carbon Brief: When you look back at your time heading up biodiversity negotiations, what are your highlights?
Will Lockhart: It’s all still emotionally raw. From a global perspective, the agreement of the GBF was a huge personal highlight. That was a really, really complicated negotiation. The notion that you could have frontpage news that was about an international agreement on nature, that was immensely exciting.
CB: In your view, is it possible to achieve the GBF’s mission to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030?
WL: The trajectory right now would suggest, no, it’s looking incredibly hard to achieve. But, even then, with exactly the right interventions at exactly the right scale, it might still be possible. A fair question might be was it ever possible?…There has always been a contested evidence base about whether it could ever have been achieved.
The important thing is that people spent a lot of time thinking about why we were setting certain kinds of targets…We wanted them to be specific, measurable and achieveable. What does achievable mean? What does ambitious mean? What message are we trying to send? This is politics, this isn’t necessarily science.
If the answer is that it was never possible in the first place, then the question is: ‘Why did the world agree to it?’ And the answer to that is: ‘Because it matters that we try.’
CB: Could there be a better way for countries to address biodiversity loss than the current system?
WL: It’s a very complicated question. A question that everyone has to bear in mind is: ‘What [is the] value [of] the COPs?’ You pour a huge amount of time and resource into a global dialogue, which results in a very, very carefully negotiated outcome. It’s extremely important, in my view, that you have a space where the whole world can come together in a room and agree that it wants to do something. The question is, where does the world locate that process?
I worry that the world is simultaneously asking too much and too little of COPs. It’s asking too much in the sense that there’s so much coverage and intense scrutiny of ‘this person’s arrived’, ‘this comma has moved’…There’s an extraordinary media circus. [There is] extreme expectation on each individual meeting.
And, at the same time, it’s simultaneously asking too little of them. It’s like: ‘Great, this word was in so it was a good COP’ or ‘this word was out so it was a bad COP’. And of course COPs are just one tiny part of this huge global process that needs to happen if we’re going to tackle these problems. I rather worry – and I know that colleagues feel the same – they’re just viewed as ends in themselves.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length. A longer article has been published on Carbon Brief’s website.
News and views
RECORD FOREST LOSS: Tropical forest loss hit its highest level in a two-decade record in 2024 – double the level of 2023 – according to satellite data from Global Forest Watch covered by New Scientist. The report authors “attributed the surge in forest loss to the El Niño weather phenomenon and the warming global climate, which made the rainforest a tinderbox”, the magazine said. Climate Home News added that the rate of forest loss was the equivalent of losing 18 football pitches every minute.
RATIFY THIS: The EU ratified the UN “High Seas Treaty” last Wednesday, “joining a global effort to protect the ocean, curb environmental damage, tackle climate change and preserve biodiversity”, Jurist News reported. The EU’s ratification of the landmark treaty was joined by six of its member states: Cyprus, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Portugal and Slovenia. The EU also pledged €40m as part of a Global Ocean Programme to support African, Caribbean and Pacific countries, according to an EU Commission press release.
THOUSAND CUTS: A “cornerstone” ecological research programme could potentially be culled by the Trump administration, the New York Times reported. Abolishing the Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) “was an explicit goal of Project 2025, the blueprint for shrinking the federal government”, the story added. However, the budget cut “still needs to be approved by Congress”, with scientists rallying to save the EMA, the paper wrote. On Monday, the Trump administration announced plans to “eliminate federal protections across millions of acres of Alaskan wilderness” that could open the region to drilling and mining, according to another New York Times story.
NET NATURE LOSS?: In the UK, the Guardian reported that the “nature-friendly farming budget is set to be slashed” for “all but a few farms” in an upcoming spending review. Meanwhile, legal analysis of the Labour government’s new planning and infrastructure bill showed that “more than 5,000 of England’s most sensitive, rare and protected natural habitats are at high risk of being destroyed by development”, per another Guardian story. A key concern for green groups, it added, is a “cash for trash” clause that allows developers to “inflict adverse effects on the integrity of a protected site” if they pay into a fund to restore nature elsewhere.
MIRAGE CITY: Reuters reported on Egypt’s plans to build a new desert city, 42km west of Cairo, that could reroute “about 7% of [its] annual Nile River quota” from fertile delta land. According to the story, an estimated 10m cubic metres of Nile water will flow daily to Jirian city to “pass by upscale glass-fronted housing units and eventually” irrigate a 2.28m acre “New Delta” agricultural project. Jirian city will include luxury housing, a free economic zone and even a “yacht marina”, the newswire added, noting that the country is facing “mounting water shortages, power constraints and deepening economic crisis”.
FOREST-FRIENDLY BATTERIES: Electric car batteries made using iron and phosphorus “that pose less of a threat to forests” are “rapidly replacing batteries reliant on cobalt and nickel”, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report covered by Climate Home News. From 2020 to 2024, the market share of lithium nickel manganese cobalt batteries has risen from one-tenth to almost half, according to the IEA data. Both cobalt and nickel are “mainly mined in rainforest countries”, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia, the publication added.
Watch, read, listen
REFORESTED SCHOOLS: Mongabay explored how “urban forests” in schools in Niger are helping to build “climate resilience and education”.
SO LONG, SALGADO: The New Yorker examined the visual legacy of photojournalist Sebastião Salgado, who died last week. Salgado’s Genesis series is celebrated as a “paean to natural landscapes and Indigenous ways of living”.
SECOND ACT: In an Atlantic long-read, writer Emma Marris looked at the debate calling for a law to protect ecosystems along with endangered species in the US.
PROUD, NATURALLY: CBC News reviewed Animal Pride, a new documentary about queer animal behaviour that filmmaker Connel Bradwell described as “nature’s coming-out story”.
New science
- Greater fish biodiversity can help improve nutrition and make fisheries more resilient, according to new research published in Nature Sustainability. The study found that fishing waters with complementary species could provide more than 60% in additional nutrients than a similar-sized catch of the most nutrient-rich species.
- A new study in Nature Climate Change found that “natural climate solutions” in croplands offer only “modest” mitigation benefits if reductions in crop yields are to be avoided. According to the authors, this indicates that “cropland soil will constitute a fraction of food system decarbonisation”.
- New research in Communications Earth and Environment found that global agricultural labour productivity could decrease by 18% by 2100 under a scenario of high heat-stress and labour sensitivity.
In the diary
- 2-6 June: 69th Meeting of the Global Environment Facility Council | Washington DC
- 5 June: World Environment Day
- 7 June: Ocean Rise and Coastal Resilience Summit | Nice, France
- 9-13 June: 2025 UN Ocean Conference | Nice, France
- 16-26 June: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change intersessional meetings | Bonn, Germany
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org
The post Cropped 4 June 2025: ‘Tricks’ and ‘cover-ups’; Wild weather; Former UN nature negotiator interviewed appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 4 June 2025: ‘Tricks’ and ‘cover-ups’; Wild weather; Former UN nature negotiator interviewed
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 6 March 2026: Iran energy crisis | China climate plan | Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ wind turbine
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Energy crisis
ENERGY SPIKE: US-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent counterattacks across the Middle East have sent energy prices “soaring”, according to Reuters. The newswire reported that the region “accounts for just under a third of global oil production and almost a fifth of gas”. The Guardian noted that shipping traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, “all but ground to a halt”. The Financial Times reported that attacks by Iran on Middle East energy facilities – notably in Qatar – triggered the “biggest rise in gas prices since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.
‘RISK’ AND ‘BENEFITS’: Bloomberg reported on increases in diesel prices in Europe and the US, speculating that rising fuel costs could be “a risk for president Donald Trump”. US gas producers are “poised to benefit from the big disruption in global supply”, according to CNBC. Indian government sources told the