We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
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Key developments
EU trade impacts
AG EXCEPTION: France and Italy are “at least temporarily” seeking a carve-out for fertilisers from the EU’s carbon border tax in order to “protect struggling European farmers”, reported Reuters. The first-of-its-kind levy, which came into effect on 1 January, “imposes CO2 emissions fees on imports…to ensure they do not have an unfair advantage over products made in Europe”, the newswire explained. Following the “fertiliser backlash”, the European Commission said it will assess a temporary suspension if the tax leads to “significant inflationary pressure on food prices”, said S&P Global.
MERCOSUR IMMINENT: The EU is set to sign the Mercosur trade deal – an agreement “more than 25 years in the making” – in Paraguay on 17 January, reported the Buenos Aires Times. The deal will create a free trade zone between the EU and the five Mercosur countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Bloomberg wrote that the deal is “meant to signal independence from the world’s two largest economies [the US and China] – and to show that broad multilateral deals remain possible in a global order upended by Donald Trump”.
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FARMERS FUMING: Meanwhile, “dozens” of farmers in France and Greece have been protesting the trade deal, “halting traffic and blocking key roads with tractors”, according to the Associated Press. Farmers in Greece “halt[ed] all traffic except emergency vehicles”, the newswire said, while French farmers “set up roadblocks across the country”. French farmers also drove into Paris yesterday, reported Reuters, warning that the trade deal “threatens local agriculture by creating unfair competition with cheaper South American imports”. Greek farmers have been protesting “delayed EU subsidy payments, rising production costs and other grievances” for more than a month, according to Kathimerini.
DEFORESTATION LAW ‘HOLLOWED OUT’: The EU deforestation regulation has been “hollowed out”, the architect of the original legislation told the Guardian. Hugo Schally told the newspaper that the removal of reporting obligations from traders “will make enforcement and eventual prosecution more difficult”. The Guardian noted that the law had come under “intense pressure” from rightwing groups, as well as “some of the biggest exporters to the EU”. A spokesperson for the commission told the newspaper that the law “has already led to positive developments and action on the ground to fight deforestation, climate change and biodiversity loss”.
Wildfires worldwide
‘MAJOR FIRES’ IN OZ: Nearly a dozen “major fires” burned across the Australian state of Victoria over the weekend, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. The newspaper reported that more than 130 structures have been destroyed and more than 400,000 hectares of land have been “blackened in the fires”. A separate Sydney Morning Herald article noted that the fires had “prompt[ed] grave fears for vulnerable animals”, such as dingoes, critically endangered frogs and several endangered bird species.
WESTERN CAPE WILDFIRES: Thousands of people were also displaced following wildfires in South Africa’s Western Cape, according to Xinhua News Agency. The Daily Maverick wrote that “homes and farms were consumed within minutes, while neighbours and volunteers scrambled to protect property”. Several factors may have contributed to the blazes, including exceptionally dry weather, strong winds, unmanaged vegetation and invasive tree species, the newspaper said.
CRITICAL SITUATION: In Argentine Patagonia, tourists were evacuated and homes burned as fires “scorched more than 15,000 hectares” of forest, reported Agence France-Presse. Rain on Sunday afternoon provided “relief” to some residents of the Chubut region, but the province’s governor, Ignacio Torres, said that the situation “remains very critical”. Torres said that people should “never again…downplay the implications of climate change”, the newswire reported.
BRAZIL FIRES FALL: The number of wildfires in the Brazilian Amazon dropped by 69% in 2025, compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest level in 28 years, reported EFE Verde. The newswire said the decline was “attributed by specialists to less severe climatic conditions than in 2024 [and] to shorter and less rigorous periods of drought”.
News and views
SOYA MORATORIUM ‘ENDED’: A major Brazilian soya industry association has announced it will “withdraw” from the “soya moratorium” – an agreement to refrain from selling soya grown on recently deforested land, reported the Associated Press. The newswire noted that the moratorium “has been widely credited with helping curb rainforest loss”. It added: “Environmentalists and government officials said the withdrawal essentially ended the agreement, even though no participant has formally declared it over.”
US TREATY RETREAT: US president Donald Trump announced that the country will withdraw from 66 international bodies, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, saying these bodies “no longer serve US interests”, reported Politico. Among the other organisations are two major scientific bodies – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), reported Carbon Brief. Several legal experts told the Guardian that the move to withdraw from the treaties “may be illegal”.
ALTERNATIVES FOR ENGLAND: Seven out of England’s 10 wildlife targets under the Environment Act 2021 are unlikely to be met by 2030, reported the Guardian. The outlet added that some of the targets could be hindered by the proposed planning and infrastructure bill. Elsewhere, English livestock farmers could profit more from improving the environment than producing meat, according to analysis by thinktank Green Alliance covered by the Grocer.
DIETARY CHANGE: The Trump administration released new dietary guidelines that “take a dramatic turn toward encouraging the consumption of animal protein, including red meat”, said Inside Climate News. It added that the “meat industry celebrated the new guidelines”, while health and environmental groups “called them a dangerous reversal of science-based health advice that could worsen the climate and ecological impacts of livestock”. Previous iterations of the dietary guidelines have not directly considered environmental sustainability, but have encouraged plant-based proteins from a health perspective.
LARGE SEIZURE: Indonesia is planning to reclaim millions of hectares of land it believes are being used illegally, reported Bloomberg. The country has so far seized 4m hectares of palm oil plantations, mining concessions and processing facilities, and officials say this could soon double. The outlet added that much of the land has been given to a state-owned company responsible for managing palm oil plantations, as part of Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto’s efforts to combat “malfeasance in the commodities sector”. Palm oil traders fear land seizures could hurt Indonesia’s palm oil supply, reduce investment and impact smallholder plantations, the article said.
FOOD SECURITY RISK: The head of Iran’s meteorological organisation warned that climate change is becoming a serious threat to the country’s food security, according to NatureNews Africa. The official said that sea level rise in the Persian Gulf could cause flooding and saltwater seep into coastal provinces of south-western Iran, damaging soil and food production. The official also pointed out that high temperatures are already reducing crop yields, damaging soil and harming marine life, the outlet reported, and called for “urgent” policy changes and climate adaptation strategies.
Spotlight
2026 FLAN moments to watch out for
This week, Carbon Brief compiles a non-exhaustive list of international policies and negotiations in 2026 that concern food systems, biodiversity and climate change, as well as major reports expected this year.
The coming year is another “triple COP” year, as countries will meet to negotiate outcomes under three major environmental treaties – the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
The world is coming out of an “intense period on the climate policy side”, Oliver Camp, an environment and food systems advocacy advisor at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN), told Carbon Brief. Following 2025, which saw many – but not all – countries update their climate pledges (“nationally determined contributions”, or NDCs), Camp said he expects new focus on accelerating implementation in the coming year.
This means “moving from what and why to how”, he continued. On the policy front, countries need to begin implementing high-level plans, such as their NDCs, national adaptation plans (NAPs), food system pathways and national nutrition plans, he added.
Policies
Regarding global agricultural policies, Camp said he expects the focus to shift towards food-based dietary guidelines, national agroecology transition plans, livestock strategies and food loss and waste reduction roadmaps.
On nature, a key moment will be the delivery of countries’ biodiversity plans (NBSAPs) and national reports, the latter of which must be submitted to the CBD by 28 February.
At the EU level, countries are required to submit their national restoration plans to the European Commission by mid-2026, which detail how they will meet their targets for restoring ecosystems. This is part of the Nature Restoration Law, which the bloc approved in 2024. This aims to restore at least 20% of EU land and sea by 2030, and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.
Several global and regional agreements and policies focus on the ocean.
The High Seas Treaty, also known as the agreement on “biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction”, will enter into force on 17 January. The treaty – already ratified by 81 of 145 signing countries – aims to govern the conservation and sustainable use of the world’s oceans outside of national waters and was agreed upon in March 2023.
The first conference of parties to the treaty is supposed to take place within one year after the treaty enters into force and will address the rules of procedure, permanent bodies and rules of funding and budget, as well as priorities for implementing the treaty.
The European Ocean Act is planned for adoption by the end of this year and will seek to improve the implementation of marine governance at EU level by structuring all the marine conservation and sustainable use targets adopted by the bloc. The act also aims to streamline EU ocean policies and reporting.
Reports
The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) will release its “business and biodiversity assessment” in February. This report will examine the impacts and dependence of companies on nature and the methods they use to measure and report their impacts. The report is expected to be adopted at the IPBES 12th plenary session, held from 3 to 8 February 2026 in Manchester, UK.
Marie Cosquer, food systems and climate advocacy analyst for Action against Hunger, told Carbon Brief that she is looking forward to an upcoming report on Indigenous peoples’ food and knowledge systems. That report will be produced by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the UN Committee on World Food Security and released in October.
International negotiations
The first of the UN conventions to meet will be the UNCCD, which will convene COP17 from 17 to 28 August in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. It is expected to deliver solutions for land restoration, sustainable land use, resilience and mitigation of climate impacts. This occurs during the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists, which will gather efforts for the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of rangelands.
COP17 of the CBD will be held from 19 to 30 October in Armenia’s capital Yerevan. It will deliver the first global review of nations’ progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
Finally, COP31 of the UNFCCC will be held in Antalya, Turkey from 9 to 20 November, with rival bidder Australia acting as “president of negotiations”. In its coverage of COP30 in Belém last November, Carbon Brief compiled a list of the key meetings and milestones leading up to the summit in Turkey.
Watch, read, listen
LAST BAOBAB STANDING: The Guardian asked whether the city of Kinshasa – the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo – can save its sole remaining baobab tree.
BEAVER HEROES: A National Geographic video explored how beaver dams can be beneficial to ecosystems and other species.
‘MICRO-FOREST’ MOVEMENT: NPR’s Short Wave podcast discussed the rise of “micro-forests” – small forests that can help restore degraded lands, take up CO2 and preserve biodiversity.
THE LIVING RIVER: The story of how Indigenous knowledge of New Zealand’s Māori community helped grant recognition of legal rights to the Whanganui River was told by Inside Climate News.
New science
- Dog food accounts for around 1% of total greenhouse gas emissions in the UK, with a “65-fold variation” between different foods due to their meat content and composition | Journal of Cleaner Production
- Deforestation leads to more intense drought in “more than half” of the Earth’s climate zones – particularly in the boreal forests of the far northern hemisphere | Science Advances
- Around one-third of terrestrial vertebrates in protected areas are projected to be subjected to increased human land-use pressures by 2050 | Nature Ecology & Evolution
In the diary
- 17 January: High Seas Treaty enters into force
- 26-27 January: UN Water Conference preparatory meeting | Dakar, Senegal
- 3-8 February: Plenary session of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services | Manchester, UK
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Ayesha Tandon also contributed to this issue. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org
The post Cropped 14 January 2026: Wildfires scorch three continents; EU trade; Food and nature in 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 14 January 2026: Wildfires scorch three continents; EU trade; Food and nature in 2026
Climate Change
“Sink or swim”: WA Gov hugely underestimating decline in regional gas demand while sleeping on green exports, new report finds
PERTH, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals green commodity exports are an untapped economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, while offering a genuine solution for decarbonising Asia.
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State is a comprehensive analysis of the declining gas market in Asia, and the untapped economic opportunity for WA to become a global leader in green commodity exports while driving the regional shift away from fossil fuels.
The report offers key recommendations for the WA Government to support regional decarbonisation through an orderly phase out of gas exports in favour of green iron and other green exports. It comes as global climate leaders from across business, politics and advocacy prepare to meet for the Global Citizen Now: Perth event focused on decarbonising WA.
Key findings:
- Gas demand is falling across WA’s core markets in Asia: Gas demand fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline, driven by a combination of global geopolitical factors and domestic concerns.
- Policy shifts in key markets since the war on Iran now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas: Japan, South Korea and China have legislated energy plans that prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- New WA gas would arrive in a saturated, uncertain Asian market filled with cheaper gas: The US is now the world’s largest liquefied gas producer and plans to double its capacity as it also targets Asian markets.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to sustain WA’s economy: WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars.
- Exporting more WA gas is likely to delay or impede Asia decarbonisation: Despite claims by the gas industry, there is no evidence that WA gas is displacing coal in Asia, and in fact diverts resources from genuine decarbonisation options.
Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said: “As our export partners in Asia shift away from expensive and polluting gas, the WA Government has a golden opportunity to pivot our economy to green exports, like green iron, which is the most effective way to help our region to decarbonise.
“The writing is on the wall: gas is in decline, renewables are our future. In this context, it makes zero sense for the government to encourage high risk projects like Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal at Scott Reef.
“This report clearly shows that the WA Government faces a choice: sink or swim. They can either allow the gas industry to keep ripping off West Australians and continue propping up its decline, or choose the path that will deliver enormous benefits to the state and the world by becoming a leader in the rapidly expanding green economy.”
Tom Quinn, Managing Director of Springmount Advisory: “Western Australia prospers when it looks to the future and builds for future demand. Twenty years from now, what the world needs is green commodities made using WAs abundant renewable resources. Just like it did with iron ore in the 1950s and gas in the 1970s, WA should look to the future and build what the world will need, not sunsetting industries like gas that are already past their peak.”
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Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lucy.keller@greenpeace.org
A report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals the untapped green economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, which also offers a genuine solution for decarbonisation in Asia.
Is Western Australia clinging to a fading gas industry while a thriving green future passes it by? As major Asian trading partners rapidly pivot away from volatile gas imports toward cheap solar and battery storage, this report exposes a high-stakes choice: risk becoming stranded in an oversupplied fossil fuel market, or harness WA’s unmatched sun and wind to lead the global clean energy transition.
Summary
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State reveals that Western Australia (WA) faces a critical juncture as falling Asian gas demand, geopolitical gas supply volatility and accelerating renewable energy deployment undermine the long-term economic viability of gas exports. By harnessing its world-class wind and solar resources, the report demonstrates that WA can execute an orderly phase-out of gas and pioneer a green commodity export economy that could generate $987 billion in economic value by 2060, create 24,000 ongoing jobs, and drive a 9.6% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Key Findings
- Gas demand is falling in Asia – WA can no longer rely on gas exports: Gas demand in core Asian markets fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline in 2026. Legislated energy plans in Japan, South Korea, and China now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- Asia is increasing renewables, importing gas just gets in the way: Evidence from markets like Thailand suggests that gas imports are increasingly crowding out cheaper renewable energy investments and battery storage rather than displacing coal, locking in more emissions over time.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to decarbonise Asia – this is a major win for WA: With world-class renewables, WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars ($987 billion) and support a genuine 9.6% reduction in global emissions.
Recommendations to WA government
Recommendation 1: Plan an orderly gas phase-out aligned with a trading partner pivot plan
Implement a managed, orderly phase-out of gas exports aligned with trading partners’ decarbonisation pathways, rather than waiting for demand to collapse, by:
- Developing and implementing a staged phase-out of gas facilities aligned with feedstock supply expiry or typical end of facility lifespans.
- Committing to no new gas development for gas expansion, including Browse and Kimberley fields.
- Developing new, reciprocal trade relationships with existing gas trade partners, structured to progressively replace gas exports with green commodities – integrated with recommendation 2.
Recommendation 2: Develop an integrated green commodity export strategy, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub
Establish an integrated green commodity export strategy that immediately prioritises green iron development, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub, by:
- Committing to green commodity export targets to give industry and investors a clear demand signal.
- Prioritising green iron as the lead sector within the broader green commodity strategy, given WA’s iron ore endowment and first-mover potential.
Recommendation 3: Reject false solutions such as carbon dumping (CCS) and blue hydrogen
Reject carbon dumping (also described as carbon capture and storage, or CCS) and blue hydrogen as viable decarbonisation technologies, and prioritise green hydrogen and proven renewables for clean energy and fuel production by:
- Excluding blue hydrogen projects (and CCS-dependent projects) from all government support programs.
- Requiring existing hydrogen-based production (including ammonia, methanol, synthetic fuels) to have clear, near-term transition timelines to switch to green hydrogen production.