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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

This week

Global stocktake dominates negotiations

SLOW STOCKTAKE: The second week of COP28 starts today, as technical negotiations give way to ministerial talks to iron out politically-sensitive disagreements. That is the theory, at least. In reality, the centrepiece of the summit – the first “global stocktake” of progress towards the Paris Agreement goals – is progressing slowly, the Hindustan Times reported.

TRICKIEST TOPICS: In a Friday morning plenary, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber said technical discussions would continue, alongside work led by ministerial pairs on the trickiest topics. This includes the stocktake and language on fossil fuels, see below – but also adaptation, mitigation and “means of implementation” (access to finance and technology).

TEXT TRACKER: Carbon Brief’s text tracker has the status of every agenda item at COP28. Most week-one talks handed a draft text over to week two. The stocktake text was unfinished and came with a “compilation” of further views – watch for a new draft later today. No text was agreed on adaptation – and several other agenda items were deferred, without agreement, until talks in Bonn in June 2024, the Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported.

Flurry of fossil-fuel pledges

COAL GOALS: Earlier on in the week saw an avalanche of new fossil-fuel pledges. Nine new countries signed up to the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a large group of nations pledging to phase out “unabated” coal power first founded at COP26 in Glasgow. This included the US, Czech Republic, Kosovo, Cyprus, Norway, the Dominican Republic and Iceland, the Associated Press reported – and later COP28 host UAE and Malta, Edie added.

BEYOND OIL: Elsewhere, Spain, Kenya and Samoa joined a much smaller group of nations pledging to phase out all fossil fuels, known as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, at an event attended by Carbon Brief. Colombia turned heads by becoming the 10th country to join the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, the Guardian reported.

INDUSTRY CHARTER: In addition, COP28 host UAE and Saudi Arabia launched an “oil and gas decarbonisation charter” signed by 50 fossil-fuel companies, Arab News reported. The group, representing 40% of global production, pledged to end gas flaring by 2030, “zero-out” methane emissions and “align” with net-zero by 2050. However, scientists criticised the initiative for focusing on emissions associated with operations rather than from burning fossil fuels, which account for the majority, the Financial Times said.

Al Jaber under fire

RESURFACED REMARKS: COP28 president and oil executive Al Jaber faced renewed scrutiny this week, after remarks he made regarding the science of phasing out fossil fuels during a live online event in November resurfaced in a story by the Guardian and the Centre for Climate Reporting. On video, Al Jaber said: “There is no science out there – or no scenario out there – that says the phase-out of fossil fuels is going to achieve 1.5C.” The remark sparked fierce backlash from the scientific and political community.

REACTION: A day after the story and the resulting outcry, Al Jaber faced journalists during a highly unusual COP press conference attended by Carbon Brief. Sat at a table flanked by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) chair Prof Jim Skea, he told reporters: “We’re here because we very much believe and respect the science…Everything this presidency works on is centred around the science.”

Around the world

  • RENEWABLES PLEDGE: As part of the Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, 118 governments pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030 reported Reuters. China and India did not join, Carbon Brief noted.
  • BAKU BID: Azerbaijan’s bid to host COP29 got a boost after being backed by Armenia following peace talks between the two warring nations, reported state news agency Azartac. However, Carbon Brief understands Russia has vetoed the bid.
  • US FUNDS: The US had pledged $3bn for the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF), according to Climate Home News. This means the US has pledged more to the GCF than any other country, but the outlet noted that delivering the money will rely on the approval of Congress, which is currently controlled by Republicans.
  • ADAPTATION STALLS: Down to Earth reported that developing countries at COP28 “rejected” the first draft of a new “global goal on adaptation” as it “did not reflect” their priorities – particularly around finance. Reuters noted growing concerns that focus on loss and damage could “threaten” adaptation funds.
  • ‘FORESTS FOREVER’: Brazil unveiled a new “tropical forests forever” fund proposal on Friday, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, France confirmed new forest funding for Papua New Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo, Dubai’s Khaleej Times reported.
  • INDIGENOUS ACHIEVEMENT: Brazil’s Indigenous minister Sônia Guajajara made history this week by becoming the first Indigenous head of delegation at a climate COP, Carbon Brief reported.

15

The number of female heads of state attending COP28 out of a total of 133, according to the NGO CARE International. Just 38% of COP delegates are female.


Latest climate research

  • The annual Global Carbon Budget, published in Earth System Science Data and covered by Carbon Brief, found that global fossil-fuel emissions will once more reach record highs in 2023 – a projected 1.1% increase from 2022 levels.
  • The World Meteorological Organization’s decadal climate report said that 2011-20 was a “decade of accelerating climate change” and laid out the “concrete connections” between extreme weather events and slower progress towards ending poverty.
  • The Global Tipping Points report stated that the world is “already at risk of crossing” five tipping points in the Earth system, including both the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets and warm-water coral reefs.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

COP27 was the second-longest to date

During a speech on Wednesday night, Al Jaber urged negotiators to “maintain momentum and achieve a punctual finish” to COP28. The talks are scheduled to end on Tuesday 12 December and Al Jaber said he intends to close them by “11am at the latest”. But seasoned COP goers like Al Jaber will know that COPs rarely finish on time. In fact, analysis by Carbon Brief’s Joe Goodman shows that eight of the last 10 climate summits have run over by more than 24 hours, with COP27 being the second-longest summit to date. The last COP to finish near-enough on time was COP12 in Nairobi in 2006.

Spotlight

The fight over fossil fuels

Negotiations at COP28 have entered their crucial second week and the fight over what to say about fossil fuels in the “global stocktake” text is moving out into the open.

Ahead of the talks, 106 countries including the EU and the 79-member Organisation of African Caribbean and Pacific States backed language on a “global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels”. A separate group of 26 countries called for “a global phase-out of fossil fuels”.

While the scientific evidence is clear on the need for swift and significant cuts in fossil-fuel use if warming is to stay below 1.5C, the wording being discussed at COP28 is anything but.

As Carbon Brief’s in-depth Q&A explained on Wednesday, many of the words and phrases being put forward are contentious or are ambiguous. There is currently no agreed definition for what constitutes “abated” or “unabated” fossil fuels. Some disagree that phase “out” means getting to zero, while phase “down” is also imprecise.

The latest draft of the global stocktake text “calls upon” countries to work “towards” one of five options:

  • “A phase-out of fossil fuels in line with best available science”.
  • Option one plus alignment to “the IPCC’s 1.5C pathways” and Paris principles.
  • “A phase-out of unabated fossil fuels…a peak in their consumption this decade” and an “energy sector…predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050”.
  • “Phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use so as to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century”.
  • “No text.” (China, India and the Arab Group currently oppose the inclusion of any fossil-fuel language.)

Carbon Brief understands that parties began floating alternative language on fossil fuels on the first day of COP28. New formulations are still emerging, with elements such as timelines, differentiated targets or wording that avoids “phase-out” or “phase-down” altogether.

The list below shows options posited by countries and international alliances so far:

  • UAE in May: “Phasing out of fossil fuel emissions.” This implies ongoing fossil fuel use, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) theoretically avoiding emissions.
  • UAE in October: To “work towards a future energy system that is free of unabated fossil fuels by mid-century including by scaling…all available solutions and technologies”. This centres on unabated fossil fuels, again implying a role for “technologies” such as CCS. It adds the vague “work towards”.
  • UAE with the International Energy Agency in December:
    • “A huge increase in energy efficiency and of renewables this decade must come alongside and support a significant phase-down in fossil fuel supply and demand”. This links supply and demand cuts to the scaling up of alternatives.
    • “Renewable capacity must be trebled by 2030 to increasingly substitute…for fossil fuels”. This mentions the idea of “substitution” of fossil fuel demand.
    • “Fossil fuels must phase down significantly this decade to keep 1.5C within reach”. This uses the weaker “phase down” but adds urgency with “significantly”, “this decade” and a direct link to the 1.5C limit.
  • US-China Sunnylands statement: To “sufficiently accelerate renewable energy…through 2030…so as to accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation…[giving] meaningful absolute power sector emission reduction, in this critical decade of the 2020s”. This centres substitution and action this decade, but only addresses the power sector.
  • EU in October: A “global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels and a peak in their consumption…this decade”, aiming for an “energy sector…predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050”. This adds timing, while the latter sentence avoids “phase-out” and “unabated”, but adds ambiguity with “predominantly”, which could mean almost all or more than half.
  • High-level committee at COP28: The “phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, in particular coal…with developed countries taking the lead”. This adds differentiation and spotlights coal.
  • Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) on 6 December: A “just and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels in the context of a just transition, with developed countries taking the lead” and with renewables “strategically implemented…to displace fossil fuel[s]”. This centres equity and substitution.
  • Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) on 8 December: A “phasing out of fossil fuels in line with 1.5C, the best available science, and principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement”, as well as “no new investments in fossil fuel infrastructure”. This gives definition via the science, links to 1.5C and adds an additional marker on ending fossil fuel investments.
  • World Climate Research Programme scientists: “[M]oving towards the phase-out of fossil fuel combustion is necessary to keep the 1.5C goal…within reach.” This has the rider “towards”, but puts the focus on fossil fuel “combustion” and links to 1.5C.
  • Group of 800+ leaders from business, civil society, politics and academia: “An orderly phase-out of all fossil fuels in a just and equitable way, in line with a 1.5C trajectory.”

If COP28 is to agree language on fossil fuels, it is likely to include several of these elements around timing, pace, differentiation and equity – as well as additional adverbs and adjectives. It may also tie fossil-fuel cuts to access to finance and technology.

Carbon Brief’s text tracker and deputy editor Dr Simon Evans’ Twitter account will continue to bring updates on the latest drafts for the global stocktake and other areas.

The search for agreed language is a key test for the summit. If it can be found, it would send a signal about the future path of the global economy to consumers, regulators and investors.

Crucially, the stocktake also informs the next round of national climate pledges out to 2035 – or even 2040. This matters because by the time of the next global stocktake in 2028, the already-tiny carbon budget for 1.5C will have been almost completely used up.

Watch, read, listen

SURVIVAL MODE: Grist detailed the Marshall Islands’ “life-or-death” climate adaptation plan, which calls for billions in funding and says that many islanders will likely need to leave as “climate impacts worsen”.

OFFSETTING: The Financial Times looked at the “looming land grab in Africa for carbon credits” in the context of ongoing COP28 talks on the rules for a new global carbon market.

FIGUERES ON COP28: The Rest is Politics podcast, hosted by the UK Labour party’s former PR man Alastair Campbell and former Conservative minister Rory Stewart, spoke to former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres on all things COP28.

Coming up at COP28

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org

The post COP28 DeBriefed 8 December: The fight over fossil fuels; Al Jaber defends ‘respect’ for science; Has COP ever finished on time? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

COP28 DeBriefed 8 December: The fight over fossil fuels; Al Jaber defends ‘respect’ for science; Has COP ever finished on time?

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Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time

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For the first time in the UK, more new electric vehicles (EVs) have been sold over a 12-month period than petrol cars, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

The news comes amid a battle over the future of the UK’s “zero-emissions vehicle” (ZEV) mandate, which the car industry and some unions are pushing to water down.

The mandate sets a rising target for the share of new car sales that must be “zero-emissions vehicles” (ZEVs) each year – primarily “pure” or “battery” EVs that only run on electricity.

The car industry argues that demand for these cars is too low to meet the requirements of the ZEV mandate, despite the fact that the industry has “over-complied” to date.

Carbon Brief’s analysis of the latest data on new UK car sales, shown in the figure below, illustrates that demand for EVs has, in fact, grown consistently – and it has now overtaken demand for petrol cars for the first time.

In the 12 months to May 2026, UK consumers bought 516,490 new BEVs, against only 504,010 new petrol cars.

Chart showing that UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time
Number of new EVs and petrol cars sold in the UK, units per 12-month period. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

Note that the analysis is based on figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). Figures published by the UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) are based on a slightly different categorisation for hybrid cars.

All hybrids run entirely on petrol or diesel fuel, while also carrying a small battery and an electric motor. ACEA counts these cars separately to petrol and diesel models.

In contrast, the SMMT counts what it calls “mild” hybrids as petrol cars, while listing “full” hybrids – such as Toyota’s Prius – in a separate category.

The ACEA data shows that hybrids are the most popular type of car in the UK, as illustrated in the figure below, but also shows that their sales are relatively stagnant.

Some 56,321 hybrids were sold in May 2026, the most recent month with data from ACEA. This is an increase of 1,181 year-on-year, or just 2%.

In contrast, EV sales grew 34% to reach 43,931, while petrol cars were down 14% to 35,068.

Plug-in hybrids, which can be run on electricity from the grid or from a petrol engine, are also seeing relatively rapid sales growth, up 24% year-on-year in May 2026 to 22,167.

(In the UK, numberplates for “pure” EVs that only run on electricity are marked out by a distinctive green stripe on the left-hand side. These stripes are not used for any type of hybrid.)

Chart showing that hybrids are the most common new cars in the UK – but EVs are catching up
Number of new cars sold in the UK by fuel type, May 2025 and 2026. Source: ACEA.

The new analysis for the UK follows a similar milestone for the EU, with more BEVs having been sold in the month of December 2025 than petrol cars.

The UK first saw more sales of BEVs than petrol cars in a single month in December 2022, but this pattern has only been repeated on a consistent basis over the past year.

Globally, EV sales grew by 20% in 2025 and accounted for one in every four new cars sold, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The agency said that global EV sales were set to grow by another 15% in 2026.

The post Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time

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Can the circular economy win over big business?

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This could be a big year for the circular economy.

In autumn, the European Commission is due to adopt the Circular Economy Act (CEA), aimed at supporting the EU in its stated aim to become a world leader in circularity by 2030.

There is a clear environmental imperative behind the legislation, but also a geopolitical one. Europe imports the vast majority of all its critical raw materials; for example, 100% of its heavy rare earth metals come from China and 71% of its platinum from South Africa.

The bloc is seeking to reduce its dependency on imports of key commodities, energy and materials, and as a result achieve greater self-sufficiency. Circular products are one route to achieving that.

Circular ambitions

Whether the EU’s aim is achievable, or not, brings into sharp relief the current state of the circular economy. According to the European Environment Agency, in 2024, secondary recovered materials made up 12% of total material use across Europe. This was only 1.5% higher than in 2010.

But, by some estimates, the global circular economy is already worth around $700 billion and could reach several trillion within the next decade. This rate of growth would take considerable support from national governments, starting with something akin to the CEA, which aims to double the EU’s circularity rate to 24% and create a single market for secondary raw materials. The hope is that this will stoke demand from businesses to adopt more circular practices.

Carsten Wachholz, business-policy engagement lead at the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, described the forthcoming act as “a critical opportunity to turn circular solutions from a niche proposition into a mainstream market choice,” adding that by harmonising rules across the single market the EU can allow the circular economy to “scale across borders”.

From there the argument runs that rules created in Europe will be copied in other markets, shaping global supply chains and standards elsewhere. “The EU can work towards shared international ambition, reducing protectionism risks, and unlocking large-scale investment globally,” he added.

Making two ends meet

Raising awareness of what is meant by circularity, and being able to identify and treat circular products correctly, is one of the challenges the sector faces.

The global economy has been built on a simple linear structure where we source a material, create something out of it, sell it on and then throw it away. This process, sometimes called ‘take, make, use, dispose’ is the opposite of the principles of circularity.

The Ellen MacArthur Foundation defines the circular economy as a system where “materials never become waste”. In such a system, products and materials are “kept in circulation through processes like maintenance, reuse, refurbishment, remanufacture, recycling and composting”.

Circularity is about the whole life cycle of a product, seeing how it can be used for longer, upgrading when possible, and then potentially using that product to create something else afterwards. The intention with circularity is to increase the use of non-virgin materials, reducing the need to extract more from the ground.

Signify: “We believe resilience is becoming more important to businesses right now”

Thomas Marinelli, head of sustainable innovation and design at Signify, a global lighting company, said: “I once explained it to a child with Lego. You put Lego blocks together and you can pull them apart again and make something new.”

Circular practices also lead to more products – phones, washing machines, lighting – being leased instead of created from scratch. These services cut the need for large upfront investments and reduce environmental impacts.

How business is responding

The next step is to convince businesses it is the right thing to do, from a financial, environmental and product perspective.

“Using products for longer and using less material and energy is a topic of interest in our markets,” added Marinelli, while at the same time acknowledging that part of the challenge is “awareness creation”.

“We need to prove that products made from non-virgin, or bio-circular materials are at least as good. And that a business’s environmental footprint is much lower when you use non-virgin materials,” he said.

Part of the awareness-raising piece is showing that older products can be repaired, refurbished and remanufactured, depending on their condition. Signify takes lighting systems that are up to 10 years old, and makes them new again, saving on material waste and cutting emissions, often at a lower cost than buying a new product.

An illustration of how the life cycle of a product can be extended through circular practices. Image: Signify

An illustration of how the life cycle of a product can be extended through circular practices. Image: Signify

A growing number of companies are already sold on the benefits of going circular. A recent survey from the World Economic Forum found that out of 491 manufacturing executives, 79% said circularity is crucial to their business, and 95% said it will be important within three years.

Carrefour, the French retail giant, has adopted circular practices in some of its stores as a way of driving down energy costs and cutting carbon emissions. In one of its Belgian stores, the company installed 3D-printed light fixtures made from recycled water bottles. Lighting systems were made from recycled materials that can be fully dismantled and used to make new ones after they reach the end of their natural life.

Does the future of green manufacturing lie in 3D printing?

A separate example comes from Denmark where the area of Tuborg Havn in Copenhagen chose to upgrade its historic street lamps with efficient LEDs instead of replacing them. More than 80 light fixtures were cleaned, upgraded and reinstalled as part of the new initiative, and the new lights will be 3.5 times more efficient than the old ones. The initiative has allowed the harbour to retain its historic character while reducing energy consumption and modernising the area.

Overcoming barriers

The Ellen MacArthur Foundation recently coordinated an open letter to the European Commission – signed by 12 global brands including The LEGO Group, H&M and Philips – calling for lawmakers to support new reforms that address common barriers facing circular products.

These include simplifying EU-wide rules, creating tax incentives and stronger financial support for the burgeoning sector. Current VAT rules, for example, can mean secondhand goods are repeatedly taxed across their lifetime, something the charity is seeking to change.

“Capital is not lacking,” said Wachholz, “but the risk profile of circular economy projects keeps too many ventures stuck at pilot scale rather than reaching industrial deployment.”

The letter calls for the creation of a secondary materials platform to improve price transparency, digital product passports to track material flows, and the creation of new industrial hubs to provide the infrastructure and technology the sector needs in order to scale up.

Is electrification a no-brainer in the race to net-zero?

Those measures, coupled with fossil energy price spikes, will help circular products compete on cost with the extractive economy, experts say. “Using recycled materials or non-virgin alternatives can become competitive in the long run,” said Marinelli, pointing to the volatility in the price of raw materials. “If you look at plastics, when oil is a problem, the price of plastics goes up. But recycled plastic stays at the same level.”

“And it’s not only about materials but production as well. When volumes of recycled materials go up, then the price remains stable or goes down,” he added.

Opportune moment

The current geopolitical environment could serve to support growth in the circular economy. Supply chain constraints caused by the war in Iran have caused commodity prices to skyrocket. This has led many companies – and countries – to seek ways to protect themselves against future shocks.

In that context, new circular policies and products could receive a favourable hearing from businesses looking to build resilience, cut costs and protect nature. A future where circularity is fully embedded across society will need time and support to grow, but may well be on its way.

Adam Wentworth is a freelance journalist based in Brighton, UK

The post Can the circular economy win over big business? appeared first on Climate Home News.

Can the circular economy win over big business?

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REPORT: Where the Ocean leads us, A Pacific way to a fossil fuel free future

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A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific advocates for a Pasifika-led transition toward a future free from coal, oil, and gas. It emphasises that while Pacific island nations contribute minimally to global emissions, they face existential threats from rising sea levels and coral reef destruction.

Leadership from the frontlines

Three decades ago, the world united to confront the greatest challenge of our age: climate change and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

The Pacific has been there at every step, playing a central role in shaping the global climate regime. We have defended science, been a voice for ambition and justice, and delivered successive breakthroughs — from securing the 1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement to taking the world’s biggest problem to the world’s highest court. Today, we are spearheading efforts — both inside and outside the formal process of UN climate negotiations — towards a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.

In Vanuatu, Risu and other young girls from her village, have been working to rehabilitate and protect their local reefs.
In Vanuatu, Risu and other young girls from her village, have been working to rehabilitate and protect their local reefs.

Timeline

1980s Pacific island countries first warn of the threats to physical and cultural survival from climate change.
1990 Together with island nations of the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean, the Pacific forms the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
1991 Vanuatu makes the first proposal for what we now call loss and damage finance.
1994 Nauru puts forward the first draft of what became the Kyoto Protocol.
2009 Pacific island countries press for a binding agreement that would limit warming to 1.5°C, with Tuvalu and AOSIS offering text for a new legal protocol.
2015 The Pacific plays a pivotal role in securing the Paris Agreement — including the all-important goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and a stand-alone article on addressing loss and damage from climate change.
2022 Vanuatu is the first country in the world to support a Fossil Fuel Treaty, followed shortly by Tuvalu.
2023 Pacific island countries help secure the first ever reference to fossil fuels in a UN climate decision, with COP28 calling on countries to “transition away from fossil fuels”. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage becomes operational.
2024 Following a request by Pacific and Caribbean island countries, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea clarified states’ obligations to protect the world’s oceans from the impacts of climate change.
2025 Following a campaign led by Pacific island students, a historic ruling from the International Court of Justice affirms that countries are legally obliged to limit warming to 1.5°C, and that continuing down the path of fossil fuels may be an internationally wrongful act.
2026 Pacific Ministers and civil society gather in Vanuatu to set the ongoing course of Pacific leadership towards a fossil fuel free future. The Tassiriki Call reaffirms the vision of a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific and agrees to establish an Inter-Governmental Taskforce.
Activists use paint created from dried mangrove flowers to write climate justice messaging and design traditional tapa/masi cloth with motifs from various cultural influences of Fiji.

1.5°C and the transition away from fossil fuels

By the 2000s, it was clear that warming beyond 1.5°C posed a profound threat to communities in the Pacific and worldwide.

Rising seas, destructive storms, extreme heat, shifting rainfall patterns, ocean acidification… no level of warming is ‘safe’. Every fraction of a degree increases the risks to our food and water supply, our physical and mental wellbeing, our cultures, and our sovereignty.

A man observes the community graveyard impacted by coastal erosion on Pele Island in Vanuatu.

Only when you have seen sacred land swallowed by the rising ocean and the graves of your ancestors washed out to sea, cared for elders suffering through extreme heat, watched the familiar rhythm of the seasons change before your eyes, or lied awake at night worried whether your children will still have a nation to call home, do you truly understand what is at stake. For some people and communities, 1.5°C is a point of no return.


In Paris, we held the line, and refused to negotiate away our futures. The result — a universal agreement to strive to limit warming to 1.5°C — became a lifeline for Pacific communities, and a gift to the entire world.

A young Tuvaluan child looking at the after effects of the king tide that hit Funafuti, Tuvalu in February 2023.

In the decade since Paris, the case for limiting warming to 1.5°C has only grown stronger. Beyond 1.5°C, the risks grow from highly destructive to truly existential. How? The impacts of climate change do not merely increase in a linear fashion as the global temperature climbs. At a certain point we start to trigger far more severe and abrupt changes — such as the destabilisation of polar ice sheets, committing the world to much faster sea level rise, or the mass death of critical ecosystems we depend on for our sustenance.

Cross these ‘tipping points’ and we will set in motion changes at a pace to which it may be impossible to adapt, and which will continue to play out for millenia. We will have left behind the relatively stable climate of the last 11,000 years, in which today’s modern civilisations evolved, and which is the only Earth they have known. We will have tipped our Earth into a far more chaotic state, and our survival as a species will be by no means assured.

“The salt spray of the Pacific Ocean is in my blood; I grew up watching the tides shape the shores of the islands of Tuvalu. But now, those tides are rising relentlessly, eroding lands, swallowing homes, decimating livelihoods and washing away the futures of communities.

— Dr Maina Talia, Minister for Home Affairs, Climate Change and Environment, Tuvalu

We now know that even at today’s level of global warming, of just below 1.5°C, we may have crossed tipping points for the tropical coral reefs upon which millions of people in the Pacific and worldwide depend for their food and livelihoods, and for some of the world’s major ice sheets. At warming of beyond 1.5°C, crossing these and many other tipping points becomes not merely possible but a greater and greater certainty.

Let us make this urgent reality even clearer by speaking more about the ocean — the big blue beating heart of our planet. Like the blood in our veins, ocean currents distribute nutrients, oxygen and heat around the planet. Without this planetary pulse, life simply would not exist. As the world warms, these ocean currents are slowing. The planet’s pulse is becoming fainter. Ignore these planetary health warnings, and push our ocean currents beyond a tipping point, and that pulse may stop — unable to be resuscitated — with consequences for all life connected to the ocean, including our own. The ocean that raised us is now carrying a stark warning.

We are already deep in the danger zone, and it is going to take all of us pulling in the same canoe to get back to safer shores.

Course correction

Our world is changing rapidly. Around the globe, solar panels now adorn millions of roofs and windfarms dot the landscape. Growth in renewable energy has outstripped all projections.

But here’s the rub: despite remarkable progress with renewable energy, we have seen no slowdown in the burning of coal, oil and gas. Globally, our hunger for energy has been growing fast, and with it our consumption of fossil fuels, even as renewable energy has grown alongside. We are on track to be producing double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

The lesson? We need, as a global community, to be far more proactive about transitioning away from fossil fuels. Merely betting on growing renewable energy is not going to save us. It is like trying to mop up a flooded floor while leaving the tap running — unless we turn down fossil fuel production, the flood only rises. In the decade since Paris, and in the three years since the world agreed explicitly to transition away from fossil fuels, consumption has reached dangerous new highs, bringing us to the brink of all-out climate catastrophe.

We need roadmaps that help us remove the barriers to action, overcome technical obstacles, and help us finally break away from fossil fuels.

But we must also ask ourselves what we truly value. Today, so much growth in energy demand is coming not from meeting our basic needs, but from material excesses and overconsumption of energy among wealthy nations and corporations, or powering artificial intelligence and technologies that only separate us further from each other and the land and oceans that sustain us. Is this really the world we want?

The Pacific has much to remind the world about what truly matters — family, connection, reciprocity, and living in harmony with our shared home.

Expert navigator, Alson Kelen, holds a model of a traditional Marshallese caanoe.

The course ahead

The Paris Agreement, its underlying Convention, and the ongoing process of negotiations on its implementation, provide legitimacy, universality and accountability. They offer the only forums where every country has a seat at the table. They provide the legally binding framework for our common but differentiated responsibilities, and the obligation of advanced economies, whose wealth was built off the back of fossil fuels, to support the majority world in transitioning to renewable energy, adapting to the impacts of climate change, and addressing loss and damage from climate change.

But we now know that this is not enough. The greatest strength of this all-in process is also its weakness. The process of consensus decision-making provides legitimacy and durability, but also puts a brake on ambition. At best, it offers the lowest common denominator. At worst, it allows the process to be held hostage by one or more regressive forces.

Greenpeace Australia Pacific staff meet community members in Vanuatu, calling to ‘End Fossil Fuels’.

Alongside the formal process of UN climate negotiations, we must continue to grow and strengthen the coalition of committed nations already getting on with the work of building a vibrant future beyond fossil fuels. We must carry forward the momentum generated by the landmark conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, as we voyage towards the second conference in Tuvalu next year. We will build a fossil fuel free Pacific, shaped by Pacific values. We will continue to be a voice of science, ambition and conscience, and we will seek justice and accountability through the full implementation of the historic ruling from the International Court of Justice.

Recommendations

1.5°C as our guiding star

The transition away from fossil fuels must be anchored to the fundamental scientific, moral and legal imperative of limiting warming to 1.5°C. This means timelines, targets and trajectories that minimise the duration and extent of any overshoot, and return the long-term average temperature rise to 1.5°C as soon as possible.

Strengthening global cooperation

The COP31 Presidency of Negotiations, to be held by Australia, must be a meaningful partnership with the Pacific. This means elevating the voices of our leaders, backing Pacific-led solutions, and maximising the opportunity of the Pacific pre-COP to ensure the 1.5°C imperative and the transition away from fossil fuels are central to the agenda at COP31 in Antalya.

COP31 must operationalise and accelerate the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, building on the momentum from COP30 and the Santa Marta conference.

Alongside and complementary to the UN climate negotiations, willing countries should work to accelerate implementation through parallel initiatives such as the Brazilian COP30 Presidency-led roadmap, the follow-up to the Santa Marta conference, bilateral and regional collaborations, and implementation of the advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice.

National roadmaps that promote justice

All governments should develop national roadmaps for a just transition away from fossil fuels, aligned with their fair share of the global action needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, and identify needs for international support.

National roadmaps should include an immediate commitment to no new fossil fuel expansion, rule out false solutions, set timelines to phase out production and consumption — with developed countries moving fastest — and maximising the opportunities for increasing energy sovereignty, access and security.

From extraction to regeneration

The transition away from fossil fuels must also aim to reduce future energy use and demand for transition minerals. This means focussing on energy efficiency, a return to regenerative approaches, and reorienting our energy, transport, food systems and built environments away from material excesses and over-consumption, aligning instead with the values, wellbeing and long-term interests of our communities.

The transition must not lead to new industries that harm our environment and communities, and that repeat and compound the injustices of past extractive models. In particular, governments should put a permanent ban on deep sea mining.

Funding

Developed countries must provide adequate and accessible finance for transitioning away from fossil fuels, adapting to the impacts of climate change, and addressing loss and damage. This should include an increase in grants and direct budget support, be accompanied by debt relief, and be enabled through taxing polluters and ending fossil fuel subsidies.

Authored by the Pacific team at Greenpeace Australia Pacific. Words by Simon Bradshaw, Shiva Gounden, Moemoana Schwenke. Edited by Kate O’Callaghan.

Photos curated by Olivia Louella.

REPORT: Where the Ocean leads us, A Pacific way to a fossil fuel free future

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