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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

This week

Global stocktake dominates negotiations

SLOW STOCKTAKE: The second week of COP28 starts today, as technical negotiations give way to ministerial talks to iron out politically-sensitive disagreements. That is the theory, at least. In reality, the centrepiece of the summit – the first “global stocktake” of progress towards the Paris Agreement goals – is progressing slowly, the Hindustan Times reported.

TRICKIEST TOPICS: In a Friday morning plenary, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber said technical discussions would continue, alongside work led by ministerial pairs on the trickiest topics. This includes the stocktake and language on fossil fuels, see below – but also adaptation, mitigation and “means of implementation” (access to finance and technology).

TEXT TRACKER: Carbon Brief’s text tracker has the status of every agenda item at COP28. Most week-one talks handed a draft text over to week two. The stocktake text was unfinished and came with a “compilation” of further views – watch for a new draft later today. No text was agreed on adaptation – and several other agenda items were deferred, without agreement, until talks in Bonn in June 2024, the Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported.

Flurry of fossil-fuel pledges

COAL GOALS: Earlier on in the week saw an avalanche of new fossil-fuel pledges. Nine new countries signed up to the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a large group of nations pledging to phase out “unabated” coal power first founded at COP26 in Glasgow. This included the US, Czech Republic, Kosovo, Cyprus, Norway, the Dominican Republic and Iceland, the Associated Press reported – and later COP28 host UAE and Malta, Edie added.

BEYOND OIL: Elsewhere, Spain, Kenya and Samoa joined a much smaller group of nations pledging to phase out all fossil fuels, known as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, at an event attended by Carbon Brief. Colombia turned heads by becoming the 10th country to join the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, the Guardian reported.

INDUSTRY CHARTER: In addition, COP28 host UAE and Saudi Arabia launched an “oil and gas decarbonisation charter” signed by 50 fossil-fuel companies, Arab News reported. The group, representing 40% of global production, pledged to end gas flaring by 2030, “zero-out” methane emissions and “align” with net-zero by 2050. However, scientists criticised the initiative for focusing on emissions associated with operations rather than from burning fossil fuels, which account for the majority, the Financial Times said.

Al Jaber under fire

RESURFACED REMARKS: COP28 president and oil executive Al Jaber faced renewed scrutiny this week, after remarks he made regarding the science of phasing out fossil fuels during a live online event in November resurfaced in a story by the Guardian and the Centre for Climate Reporting. On video, Al Jaber said: “There is no science out there – or no scenario out there – that says the phase-out of fossil fuels is going to achieve 1.5C.” The remark sparked fierce backlash from the scientific and political community.

REACTION: A day after the story and the resulting outcry, Al Jaber faced journalists during a highly unusual COP press conference attended by Carbon Brief. Sat at a table flanked by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) chair Prof Jim Skea, he told reporters: “We’re here because we very much believe and respect the science…Everything this presidency works on is centred around the science.”

Around the world

  • RENEWABLES PLEDGE: As part of the Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, 118 governments pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030 reported Reuters. China and India did not join, Carbon Brief noted.
  • BAKU BID: Azerbaijan’s bid to host COP29 got a boost after being backed by Armenia following peace talks between the two warring nations, reported state news agency Azartac. However, Carbon Brief understands Russia has vetoed the bid.
  • US FUNDS: The US had pledged $3bn for the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF), according to Climate Home News. This means the US has pledged more to the GCF than any other country, but the outlet noted that delivering the money will rely on the approval of Congress, which is currently controlled by Republicans.
  • ADAPTATION STALLS: Down to Earth reported that developing countries at COP28 “rejected” the first draft of a new “global goal on adaptation” as it “did not reflect” their priorities – particularly around finance. Reuters noted growing concerns that focus on loss and damage could “threaten” adaptation funds.
  • ‘FORESTS FOREVER’: Brazil unveiled a new “tropical forests forever” fund proposal on Friday, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, France confirmed new forest funding for Papua New Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo, Dubai’s Khaleej Times reported.
  • INDIGENOUS ACHIEVEMENT: Brazil’s Indigenous minister Sônia Guajajara made history this week by becoming the first Indigenous head of delegation at a climate COP, Carbon Brief reported.

15

The number of female heads of state attending COP28 out of a total of 133, according to the NGO CARE International. Just 38% of COP delegates are female.

Latest climate research

  • The annual Global Carbon Budget, published in Earth System Science Data and covered by Carbon Brief, found that global fossil-fuel emissions will once more reach record highs in 2023 – a projected 1.1% increase from 2022 levels.
  • The World Meteorological Organization’s decadal climate report said that 2011-20 was a “decade of accelerating climate change” and laid out the “concrete connections” between extreme weather events and slower progress towards ending poverty.
  • The Global Tipping Points report stated that the world is “already at risk of crossing” five tipping points in the Earth system, including both the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets and warm-water coral reefs.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

COP27 was the second-longest to date

During a speech on Wednesday night, Al Jaber urged negotiators to “maintain momentum and achieve a punctual finish” to COP28. The talks are scheduled to end on Tuesday 12 December and Al Jaber said he intends to close them by “11am at the latest”. But seasoned COP goers like Al Jaber will know that COPs rarely finish on time. In fact, analysis by Carbon Brief’s Joe Goodman shows that eight of the last 10 climate summits have run over by more than 24 hours, with COP27 being the second-longest summit to date. The last COP to finish near-enough on time was COP12 in Nairobi in 2006.

Spotlight

The fight over fossil fuels

Negotiations at COP28 have entered their crucial second week and the fight over what to say about fossil fuels in the “global stocktake” text is moving out into the open.

Ahead of the talks, 106 countries including the EU and the 79-member Organisation of African Caribbean and Pacific States backed language on a “global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels”. A separate group of 26 countries called for “a global phase-out of fossil fuels”.

While the scientific evidence is clear on the need for swift and significant cuts in fossil-fuel use if warming is to stay below 1.5C, the wording being discussed at COP28 is anything but.

As Carbon Brief’s in-depth Q&A explained on Wednesday, many of the words and phrases being put forward are contentious or are ambiguous. There is currently no agreed definition for what constitutes “abated” or “unabated” fossil fuels. Some disagree that phase “out” means getting to zero, while phase “down” is also imprecise.

The latest draft of the global stocktake text “calls upon” countries to work “towards” one of five options:

  • “A phase-out of fossil fuels in line with best available science”.
  • Option one plus alignment to “the IPCC’s 1.5C pathways” and Paris principles.
  • “A phase-out of unabated fossil fuels…a peak in their consumption this decade” and an “energy sector…predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050”.
  • “Phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use so as to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century”.
  • “No text.” (China, India and the Arab Group currently oppose the inclusion of any fossil-fuel language.)

Carbon Brief understands that parties began floating alternative language on fossil fuels on the first day of COP28. New formulations are still emerging, with elements such as timelines, differentiated targets or wording that avoids “phase-out” or “phase-down” altogether.

The list below shows options posited by countries and international alliances so far:

  • UAE in May: “Phasing out of fossil fuel emissions.” This implies ongoing fossil fuel use, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) theoretically avoiding emissions.
  • UAE in October: To “work towards a future energy system that is free of unabated fossil fuels by mid-century including by scaling…all available solutions and technologies”. This centres on unabated fossil fuels, again implying a role for “technologies” such as CCS. It adds the vague “work towards”.
  • UAE with the International Energy Agency in December:
    • “A huge increase in energy efficiency and of renewables this decade must come alongside and support a significant phase-down in fossil fuel supply and demand”. This links supply and demand cuts to the scaling up of alternatives.
    • “Renewable capacity must be trebled by 2030 to increasingly substitute…for fossil fuels”. This mentions the idea of “substitution” of fossil fuel demand.
    • “Fossil fuels must phase down significantly this decade to keep 1.5C within reach”. This uses the weaker “phase down” but adds urgency with “significantly”, “this decade” and a direct link to the 1.5C limit.
  • US-China Sunnylands statement: To “sufficiently accelerate renewable energy…through 2030…so as to accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation…[giving] meaningful absolute power sector emission reduction, in this critical decade of the 2020s”. This centres substitution and action this decade, but only addresses the power sector.
  • EU in October: A “global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels and a peak in their consumption…this decade”, aiming for an “energy sector…predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050”. This adds timing, while the latter sentence avoids “phase-out” and “unabated”, but adds ambiguity with “predominantly”, which could mean almost all or more than half.
  • High-level committee at COP28: The “phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, in particular coal…with developed countries taking the lead”. This adds differentiation and spotlights coal.
  • Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) on 6 December: A “just and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels in the context of a just transition, with developed countries taking the lead” and with renewables “strategically implemented…to displace fossil fuel[s]”. This centres equity and substitution.
  • Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) on 8 December: A “phasing out of fossil fuels in line with 1.5C, the best available science, and principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement”, as well as “no new investments in fossil fuel infrastructure”. This gives definition via the science, links to 1.5C and adds an additional marker on ending fossil fuel investments.
  • World Climate Research Programme scientists: “[M]oving towards the phase-out of fossil fuel combustion is necessary to keep the 1.5C goal…within reach.” This has the rider “towards”, but puts the focus on fossil fuel “combustion” and links to 1.5C.
  • Group of 800+ leaders from business, civil society, politics and academia: “An orderly phase-out of all fossil fuels in a just and equitable way, in line with a 1.5C trajectory.”

If COP28 is to agree language on fossil fuels, it is likely to include several of these elements around timing, pace, differentiation and equity – as well as additional adverbs and adjectives. It may also tie fossil-fuel cuts to access to finance and technology.

Carbon Brief’s text tracker and deputy editor Dr Simon Evans’ Twitter account will continue to bring updates on the latest drafts for the global stocktake and other areas.

The search for agreed language is a key test for the summit. If it can be found, it would send a signal about the future path of the global economy to consumers, regulators and investors.

Crucially, the stocktake also informs the next round of national climate pledges out to 2035 – or even 2040. This matters because by the time of the next global stocktake in 2028, the already-tiny carbon budget for 1.5C will have been almost completely used up.

Watch, read, listen

SURVIVAL MODE: Grist detailed the Marshall Islands’ “life-or-death” climate adaptation plan, which calls for billions in funding and says that many islanders will likely need to leave as “climate impacts worsen”.

OFFSETTING: The Financial Times looked at the “looming land grab in Africa for carbon credits” in the context of ongoing COP28 talks on the rules for a new global carbon market.

FIGUERES ON COP28: The Rest is Politics podcast, hosted by the UK Labour party’s former PR man Alastair Campbell and former Conservative minister Rory Stewart, spoke to former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres on all things COP28.

Coming up at COP28

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org

The post COP28 DeBriefed 8 December: The fight over fossil fuels; Al Jaber defends ‘respect’ for science; Has COP ever finished on time? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

COP28 DeBriefed 8 December: The fight over fossil fuels; Al Jaber defends ‘respect’ for science; Has COP ever finished on time?

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Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes

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October 9, 2026

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The launch of the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) has been put back yet again, raising doubts about the institution’s future ability to finance fossil fuel projects – its main objective – as global lenders retreat from such investments over climate concerns, experts told Climate Home News.

The bank, which had been billed to launch in September after a series of delays, is now scheduled to begin operations in November, according to the head of the African Energy Chamber, an advocacy body for the continent’s oil and gas sector.

Even as the world aims to transition away from fossil fuels, many African leaders have made clear they want to continue exploring and extracting the continent’s large oil and gas deposits – estimated at around 125 billion barrels of crude and over 600 trillion cubic feet of gas – to boost economic development.

As a group, Africa sided with a number of powerful oil-and-gas producing nations in blocking progress on negotiations to craft a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels at last year’s UN COP30 climate talks, although some countries did individually support the proposal.

    Meanwhile, major projects under development across the continent – including the 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and Dangote’s 700,000-barrel-per-day Kenyan refinery – show that African governments see oil and gas as playing a significant role in meeting their energy and economic needs for many years to come.

    In 2022, at a gathering of the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization (APPO) in oil-rich Angola, ministers from its member states adopted a resolution to create the Africa Energy Bank to finance projects for the production, use and trade of oil, gas and broader energy sources.

    African control over energy resources

    An article on the APPO website explains that the bank was conceived as a way to overcome “disenchantment” with fossil fuels among “the international community” which it said had crystallised around the “energy transition” concept.

    “If Western countries, after having long taken advantage of the energy sources they now revile to develop, can afford the luxury of abandoning them, this is not the case in Africa,” it adds, noting that many of the continent’s economies are still largely dependent on oil and gas revenues.

    A separate web page about the bank, also hosted on APPO’s website, says its objectives include financing the exploration, production and refining of oil and gas, as well as supporting member states in transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources “while ensuring energy security”.

    What’s on the climate calendar for October 2026?

    Said Addi, a former executive with Shell and energy commodities trading house Gunvor, said the new bank was judged necessary because financing for hydrocarbons from many traditional international lenders has become constrained.

    In trying to fill this financing gap, Africa is not simply setting up another fund to support oil and gas, he added. “It is also an attempt to give African countries greater control over how their energy resources and infrastructure are financed,” he explained.

    Nigeria to host the AEB

    The energy bank – a joint initiative of APPO and the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) – has so far suffered several delays and is almost two years behind schedule. The initial plan was to start operations in January 2025, with Nigeria as the host country, but the bank’s opening was delayed to June of that year to allow Nigeria time to finalise the construction of the bank’s headquarters in Abuja.

    After the government announced the completion of the offices in late November 2025, a new launch date was set for January 2026, which was moved back to April, June and then September. Now it has shifted again to November, raising concerns that the institution may be losing momentum.

    Former Shell executive Addi said that if the capital is eventually paid in, the bank becomes operational and its first projects are commercially credible, then the delays will be regarded as normal teething troubles in setting up a multilateral institution. But, he added, scepticism will be justified if it continues to stall.

    Uganda may see lower oil revenues than expected as costs rise and demand falls

    Baron Lamarré, an oil and gas expert and former Petronas oil trader, said that missing “three deadlines in a row is not normal”, and warned that if the timeline slips again, “the story flips from ‘ambitious institution finding its footing’ to ‘good idea that lost momentum before it found any’.”

    The Nigerian government, APPO and Afreximbank did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.

    The funding challenge

    The Africa Energy Bank is targeting base capital of $5 billion, with plans to scale up to $120 billion within five years by mobilising private-sector funds. However, it is expected to start operations with initial seed capital of $500 million.

    The funding plan is to have the 18 member countries of the APPO contribute $83 million each to the bank as equity for a combined $1.5 billion. Afreximbank, other non-APPO African countries and investors outside the continent are expected to provide the remaining $3.5 billion.

    But even the initial $500 million has not been easy to mobilise. In May, APPO Secretary-General Farid Ghezali called on members to deliver on their pledges towards the startup goal before the end of June. But the delays suggest this may not have been met, with experts saying Africa may be finding it difficult to self-fund its oil and gas projects in the absence of international capital.

    Lamarré said every extension of the deadline points to the fact that “raising fossil fuel capital in Africa without the majors and their financing networks is brutally hard”.

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    Since 2020, Western lenders, export credit agencies and insurers have been in steady retreat from African hydrocarbons, he said, while oil majors are divesting their African assets, handing over fields to smaller local operators whose credit ratings are not high enough to borrow cheaply.

    Even capital from China and the Gulf, which has partially filled the gap, cannot match the volume, tenor or pricing that Western investors once offered, Lamarré argued.

    “If mobilising the first $500 million of seed capital [for the AEB] has taken this long, that’s the clearest signal yet of how steep the climb to $120 billion looks,” he said, noting that the continent’s energy financing gap is as large as $30 billion-$45 billion per year.

    Africa’s investment landscape, meanwhile, has been shifting. While foreign direct investment dropped from a 2024 peak, inflows remained roughly one-third above the continent’s long-term average in 2025, according to the 2026 World Investment Report from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). They are concentrated in a few sectors including critical minerals needed for renewable energy technologies, battery manufacturing and advanced industrial production.

    At the same time, data on global energy investment from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that fossil fuel investment in Africa has declined over the last decade.



    “Trojan horse” for fossil fuels

    While the Africa Energy Bank struggles to get off the ground, climate campaigners have criticised its primary aim of financing oil and gas on the continent at a time when the world is starting to move away from high-carbon fuels to cleaner alternatives.

    Bhekumuzi Dean Bhebhe, founder of Africa Change Lab, described the bank as a “Trojan horse”, arguing that its focus on fossil fuel financing runs counter to the global energy transition and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 goals of sustainable development and inclusive growth.

    The energy bank, he warned, “risks locking Africa into a new cycle of debt, dependency and fossil fuel entrenchment”, adding that its financing blueprint does not pave the way for a climate-resilient future. “In truth, it is to deepen the same extractive, carbon-heavy pathways that the continent should be moving away from,” he added.

    Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline

    Kenya-based climate and energy expert Joab Okanda said the AEB’s plan to finance oil and gas is “a misplaced priority” and it should instead back clean energy in line with the policies of some of Africa’s major export markets like Europe.

    In addition, the new bank could struggle to mobilise enough resources to advance large-scale oil and gas projects, he added, noting that its proposed $5-billion initial capital is equivalent to the cost of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline alone.

    The AEB’s aim of backing more fossil fuels should be flipped “to support countries that are oil-dependent to start working on their transition plans”, Okanda said.

    The post Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes

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    Factcheck: UK Conservatives double the ‘cost of net-zero’ after spreadsheet blunder