High temperatures caused by climate change are driving an ongoing drought in the Middle East, according to a new rapid attribution analysis by the World Weather Attribution service.
Large parts of Iraq, Iran and Syria have been gripped by an intense drought for years. Low rainfall and high temperatures have caused crops to fail and driven water shortages across the region, pushing millions of people into food insecurity.
The study finds that, between July 2020 and June 2023, climate change made the drought more intense – mainly due to high temperatures that dried out the soil.
In a world without climate change, the dry period would not have even been severe enough to be called a drought, the study notes.
The authors find that climate change also made the event more likely.
In today’s climate, the drought in Iran was a one-in-five year event. However, without the influence of climate change, it would have been a one-in-80 year event.
Meanwhile, in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin that encompasses much of Iraq and Syria, climate change increased the likelihood of the drought from a one-in-250 to a one-in-10 year event.
The analysis shows that droughts of this intensity are “not rare anymore” due to climate change, one study author told a press briefing.
The study highlights that other factors, including conflict, water management and land degradation have also contributed to the severe impacts of the drought.
The Fertile Crescent
Tucked between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and the Mediterranean Sea, the Fertile Crescent – named for its rich soils – is often referred to as the “cradle of civilisation”. For thousands of years, this Middle Eastern region has been ideal for agriculture, allowing rural communities to cultivate crops and raise animals.
Today, the area is facing a severe multi-year drought driven by high temperatures and low rainfall. “In an already water-stressed region, agricultural practices consume 80%, on average, of freshwater resources,” Rana El Hajj, a senior technical adviser at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and author on the study, told a press briefing.
As the drought has caused crops to fail, tens of millions of people across Iraq, Iran and Syria are facing the combined impacts of water shortages and food insecurity.
In Syria, where around 70% of the wheat crop relies on rainfall, agricultural production was 80% lower in 2022 than it was in 2020.
The resulting spike in food prices has driven millions of people into poverty and hunger. The World Food Programme estimates that 12.1 million Syrians – more than half the population – are facing hunger, while another 2.9 million people are at risk of becoming food insecure.
In Iraq, the 2020-21 rainfall season was the second driest in 40 years, leading to a 29% and 73% drop in water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, respectively.
In April 2022, the Iraqi ministry of water resources warned that the country’s water reserves had halved since the previous year due to intense heat and low rainfall.
Almost 90% of Iraq’s rain-fed crops – mostly wheat and barley – failed in 2022. One Iraqi farmer called the water shortage a “catastrophic crisis“, explaining that “most of our agricultural lands have been transformed into barren scorching desert lands which lack basic living necessities”.
In Iran, only 180mm of rain fell across the country between September 2021 and September 2022 – a decline of about 24% compared to the long-term average. The drought has led to shortages of drinking water, crop failure and low hydropower output, and many Iranian farmers have been forced to travel to cities to find work.
The low rainfall came as intense heat baked the Middle East. Over the past few years, many regions have faced temperatures above 50C.
Multiyear drought
There are many ways to define drought. Hydrological drought focuses on the amount of rainfall a region receives, while pluvial droughts focus on surface and groundwater flows.
This study investigates agricultural drought, using a measure called the “standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index” (SPEI) – an index used to determine the onset, duration and magnitude of drought conditions in comparison with typical conditions.
Dr Ben Clarke – a researcher at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and author on the study – told a press briefing that SPEI gives a measure of available water balance on the land surface.
The study investigates two regions – Iran, and the crescent around the Euphrates and Tigris rivers which encompasses large parts of Iraq and Syria.
The map below shows SPEI in these regions over the 36 months between July 2020 and June 2023. The study regions are outlined in grey, with the Tigris-Euphrates river basin on the left and Iran to the right. The areas of darker shading indicate a more severe drought.
Over both regions, 2020-23 was the second worst drought on record, the study finds.
Dr Elham Ghasemifar is a researcher in satellite climatology at Iran’s Tarbiat Modares University and was not involved in the study. He tells Carbon Brief that according to his research, the seasonality of agricultural drought is different across the three countries. Iraq and Iran see the most severe droughts in summer and spring, while Syria sees them in autumn, he says.
Attribution
Attribution is a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of climate change on drought across Iran, Iraq and Syria.
To put the drought into its historical context and determine how unlikely it was, the authors analysed a timeseries of SPEI for each region. They also use climate models to compare the world as it is today to a “counterfactual” world without human-caused climate change.
The authors find that in today’s climate, which has already warmed by around 1.2C above pre-industrial temperatures due to human-caused climate change, the drought in Iran was a one-in-five year event. Without the influence of climate change, it would have been a one-in-80 year event, they find.
If the planet continues to heat, reaching a warming level of 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, Iran could expect a drought of this severity every other year, the authors add.
The graphic below illustrates these results, where a pink dot indicates the number of years in every 81 that an event like the 2020-23 drought over Iran would be seen at different warming levels.
The authors also performed the same analysis for the Tigris-Euphrates river basin in Syria and Iraq. They find that in a pre-industrial climate, today’s climate and a 2C climate, the drought would be expected once every 250, 10 and five years, respectively. These results are shown in the graphic below.
The study shows that droughts such as those recorded in Iran, Iraq and Syria over 2020-23 are “not rare anymore”, Prof Mohammad Rahimi – a professor of climatology at Iran’s Semnan University and author on the study – told a press briefing.
The authors also find that, in both regions, climate change made the drought more intense. Without the influence of climate change, neither event would have even been classified as a drought, the study suggests.
To look more closely at the causes of the drought, the authors also analyse temperature and rainfall trends separately. They find that the change in rainfall was “relatively extreme, but not necessarily affected by climate change”, while the temperatures recorded would have been “virtually impossible” with climate change, Clarke told the press briefing.
This indicates that the drought was caused by “naturally low precipitation coinciding with really, really high temperatures”, Clarke explained.
(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)
Water insecurity
High temperatures and low rainfall are not the only drivers of water insecurity across Iraq, Iran and Syria. Rajj told the press briefing that other human-caused factors, such as poor water management, land-use change, rapid urbanisation and conflict are also key.
In Syria, more than a decade of war has resulted in underdeveloped irrigation infrastructure, as well as a “devastated economy, damaged infrastructure and increasing poverty”, says the New York Times. Many farmers have also been forced from their lands by shelling, and the the Syrian currency has collapsed to a record low.
Water scarcity is also leading to tension between countries in the Middle East, with many regions building dams or overusing water at the expense of others.
For example, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers are Iraq’s primary sources of water, but both rivers originate in Turkey and flow through Syria first. As Turkey and Syria began developing hydropower projects on the two rivers in the 1970s, water flow to Iraq began to dwindle. Today, dams along the rivers have reduced inflow to Iraq by around 30-40%.
The post Climate change: Intensity of ongoing drought in Syria, Iraq and Iran ‘not rare anymore’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate change: Intensity of ongoing drought in Syria, Iraq and Iran ‘not rare anymore’
Carbon credit registry Verra has suspended activities by four auditors related to carbon credit projects they vetted in China which claimed bogus emission reductions.
In an unprecedented move, TÜV Nord, China Classification Society Certification Company, China Quality Certification Center and CTI Certification will be prevented from auditing agriculture and forestry offsetting schemes on Verra’s registry. For German certification giant TÜV Nord, the measures will only apply to its operations in China. It is the first time Verra has taken such measures.
The auditors certified the activities of 37 programmes that aimed to slash planet-heating methane gas releases from rice fields across China, resulting in the generation of millions of carbon offsets. But Verra revoked the projects in August 2024 after a 17-month review found a string of integrity failures that the auditors had failed to identify.
Before this week’s suspension, Climate Home previously reported on ten of these projects closely linked to energy company Shell and revealed evidence raising serious doubts over whether any emission-cutting activities had been carried out on the ground at all.
Nearly 2 million worthless carbon credits produced by the projects – and partly used to offset emissions from Shell’s gas business – still need to be compensated.
Auditors fail to course-correct
As it axed the projects last year, Verra told the four auditors to produce a “strong” action plan that would prevent similar failures from happening again. But Verra said on Tuesday the responses had proved to be inadequate, prompting it to slap suspension measures on the certifiers.
The suspension will be lifted only if the auditors address the issues and meet Verra’s reinstatement requirements.
“This decision was not made lightly, but Verra’s commitment to integrity means upholding the highest standards of quality and trust, and maintaining market confidence must come first,” Justin Wheler, Verra’s chief program management officer, said in a written statement.
Blowback for other projects
Voluntary carbon market standards like Verra rely heavily on external auditors to assess projects and their compliance with the rules, while the registry only gives the final stamp of approval. But auditors are picked and paid directly by project developers, something that, experts say, raises the risk of conflicts of interest.
Verra’s suspension will have immediate repercussions for projects that had contracted the services of any of the four auditors.
Verra said that it will not accept project registrations or requests to issue credits that rely on audits done by the certifiers affected by the measure. Those that have already undergone an audit carried out by suspended auditors will have to repeat the process with a new entity. A spokesperson for Verra told Climate Home at least 57 projects will be directly affected.
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“While we recognize the impact of this suspension on affected projects, ensuring rigorous and credible validations and verifications is critical,” said Verra’s Wheler.
TÜV Nord is one of the world’s largest certification companies and, according to its website, it has vetted thousands of carbon credit projects both in the voluntary market and the United Nation’s Clean Development Mechanism. Climate Home has approached the company for comment.
China Classification Society Certification Company, China Quality Certification Center and CTI Certification are among China’s biggest certifiers of products and services, including emission reduction programmes.
Phantom credits still not compensated
Meanwhile, Verra has still been unable to obtain compensation for the 1.8 million worthless credits generated by ten rice farming projects that Shell directly supported in China. As Climate Home previously reported, the energy giant abandoned the projects soon after being informed that the sham offsets would need to be paid back.
The carbon credit registry sanctioned the project developer Hefei Luyu after the Chinese company failed to reply to Verra’s emails and compensate for the credits. But, in contrast, Verra has not taken any action against Shell – the world’s largest buyer of carbon offsets.
Shell used at least half a million credits produced by the Chinese rice farming projects to claim that shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sold to clients were “carbon neutral”.
The post Carbon credit auditors suspended for failures in sham rice-farming offsets appeared first on Climate Home News.
Carbon credit auditors suspended for failures in sham rice-farming offsets
Climate Change
The Indigenous Climate Hub Launches New Podcast Series Amplifying Indigenous Voices on Climate Action
The Indigenous Climate Hub is proud to launch its new podcast series—a powerful digital storytelling platform designed to elevate, empower, and honour Indigenous climate change leadership across Turtle Island. Available now on Spotify (http://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/indigenous-climate-hub), this podcast series shares stories of Indigenous Peoples leading climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts, engaging in environmental stewardship, and applying traditional and ecological knowledge to address the climate crisis in their homelands.
With new episodes continuing throughout 2025, the podcast offers a growing collection of compelling interviews and narratives, highlighting the diverse and resilient responses of First Nations, Inuit, and Métis communities to climate-related challenges. These stories are deeply personal and powerful — and belong to the individuals and communities who share them.
“We are excited to create a podcast where Indigenous knowledge keepers, youth, land defenders, scientists, and community members can share their experiences in their own words,” says Indigenous Climate Hub podcast co-host Dr. Shyra Barberstock. “This podcast is about amplifying the voices of Indigenous Peoples on the frontlines of climate change — and those whose leadership offers solutions rooted in generations of wisdom.”
Call for Participants
The Indigenous Climate Hub podcast team is actively seeking Indigenous interviewees who want to share their stories of:
- Climate change adaptation and mitigation
- Environmental and land stewardship
- Traditional and ecological knowledge
- Community-based solutions and innovation
- Climate and land-based education
Sharing Indigenous stories through this podcast series is an opportunity to reach a national audience, inspire others, and contribute to a growing archive of Indigenous-led climate solutions. It’s also a chance to be part of a supportive network that values Indigenous voices, land-based knowledge, and leadership.
Join the Conversation
Your perspective matters whether you’re from a northern fly-in community or a southern urban centre. We want to hear from you if you’re an Indigenous person with a story to share.
To participate in the podcast or learn more, visit https://indigenousclimatehub.ca/podcast/. Follow us on Spotify to listen to new episodes and help amplify these vital stories by sharing them with your networks.
About the Indigenous Climate Hub
The Indigenous Climate Hub supports Indigenous Peoples and communities across Canada by providing tools, resources, and knowledge-sharing opportunities focused on climate change. The podcast is one of many initiatives designed to connect Indigenous voices and leadership in the face of the global climate crisis.
For media inquiries or to express interest in being featured on the podcast, please contact us using our Contact Form.
– The Indigenous Climate Hub
The post The Indigenous Climate Hub Launches New Podcast Series Amplifying Indigenous Voices on Climate Action appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.
Rachel Santarsiero is the director of the National Security Archive’s Climate Change Transparency Project in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. intelligence apparatus has long monitored how climate change will affect U.S. national security interests in the coming decades.
Relying on a broad consensus of open-source scientific studies, modeling, and forecasts, the spy community has intermittently let the public in on its climate change agenda. In large part, however, its work on climate has been kept secret, leading to the disproportionate harm of the most vulnerable populations living in developing countries.
Last month, the Climate Change Transparency Project, an effort dedicated to tracking U.S. climate policy at the National Security Archive, a government watchdog nonprofit, reported on a climate change intelligence assessment that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has kept classified for 17 years.
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In 2008, a panel of intelligence officers produced a National Intelligence Assessment (NIA) which evaluated the “National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030,” and was one of the intelligence community’s first ever climate-focused assessments, a departure from its usual research on more “traditional” national security threats like state violence and terrorism.
Despite the assessment’s reliance on open-source resources, as outlined in a testimony given to Congress by lead study author Dr. Thomas Fingar, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) mandated its classification. In Fingar’s testimony to Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike advocated for the assessment’s declassification, with Democrats arguing that the report could inform government agencies and private industries about the risks of climate change, and Republicans arguing that its reliance on open-source information didn’t contribute anything new to the body of knowledge on climate change.
At the time, several representatives of key House select committees also pushed for declassification on grounds beyond the impacts to U.S. national security: “Information about the likely impact of climate change in other countries should be made available to help those countries prepare and direct their resources appropriately.”
The power of climate intelligence
Reports generated by intelligence agencies like the NIC and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) help predict specific vulnerabilities of various regions around the world – like which cities are most at risk from flooding or which agricultural zones may soon face extreme heatwaves. If made available to all nations, this information could help governments and humanitarian organizations take proactive steps, design better policies, and protect these more vulnerable populations.
Unfortunately, classified reports like the 2008 NIA are still shrouded in secrecy- in part, at least, to maintain strategic U.S. advantage. Intelligence officials who worked on the report, like Fingar, maintain that the 2008 NIA should remain classified because it calls out countries most vulnerable to climate change: if specific countries were named in the report, what would stop them from using it to press the U.S. and other developed countries to provide additional aid and assistance for climate-related threats?
But this argument is moot given the level of climate intelligence already out in the open. Specifically, the NIC released a National Intelligence Estimate in 2021 that names two specific regions and 11 countries as particularly vulnerable to climate change through 2040. It predicted that these countries – Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Nicaragua, Colombia, and Iraq – will experience climate-related and exacerbated events that will strain governments and civil societies.
Despite the age of the 2008 National Intelligence Assessment, it is imperative that this report is declassified to complement the already available climate data. In interviews with other former top intelligence officials, we heard the 2008 NIA is “far superior” to the 2021 NIE and could potentially provide a better roadmap for countries to mitigate against the worst impacts than the available data does.
Why developing countries suffer the most
It is troubling that much of this intelligence remains classified and out of reach for policymakers, scientists, and citizens alike in places where the impacts of climate change are being felt most acutely.
Take, for example, small island states in the Pacific, which are already seeing the impacts of sea level rise yet remain unsure of how quickly these changes will accelerate or what measures they can take to mitigate future risks. Similarly, countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is heavily dependent on climate conditions, face the double threat of droughts and unpredictable rainfall patterns.
At-risk nations have limited capacity to produce or analyze their own climate data, and access to accurate global climate intelligence would enable them to understand shifts happening in their regions and to secure funding for adaptive infrastructure.
The case for climate transparency
U.S. national security concerns must be weighed against the global nature of climate change, which affects all nations regardless of geopolitical standing. By withholding key climate data, wealthy countries are not only perpetuating environmental inequality but also undermine global efforts to curb the impacts of climate change. Providing developing nations with the same level of climate intelligence that wealthier ones receive would enable them to make better-informed decisions, prioritize resources, and act more swiftly in response to emerging climate threats.
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Declassifying the 2008 National Intelligence Assessment could also strengthen regional cooperation between mentioned nations, which developing countries may increasingly look to as the current Trump administration continues to withdraw from previous environmental international commitments, including the Paris Agreement and the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. As the United States abdicates its responsibility as a global climate leader, countries like China and India will most likely step up – and developing countries may choose to rely more heavily on them as a partner in mitigation and adaptation measures.
Climate change is a global issue that demands a coordinated response. If certain nations hoard climate intelligence, they not only hinder the adaptation efforts of developing countries but also undermine the collective action necessary to lessen future climate impacts. The sharing of climate data can foster trust and collaboration, enabling countries to work together to create a more resilient global climate framework.
The post Hidden cost: How keeping climate data classified hurts developing countries appeared first on Climate Home News.
Hidden cost: How keeping climate data classified hurts developing countries
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